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This is the Time

The Bomb

Hiroshima and Nagasaki:  the two places in the world where atomic weapons were used in war.  When the mushroom clouds bloomed over those cities, hiding hundreds of thousands of lives literally vaporized,  and warfare changed forever.  And for the last seventy-seven years the world’s nuclear powers found a way to keep from using those weapons again.  

Today nine countries in the world have “the bomb”, but two far and away have the most.  Russia and the United States each have over 6000 warheads. They range from “strategic weapons”, capable of destroying whole regions of country, to “tactical nukes” that can vaporize a tank column, or a ship.   

During the Cold War (1948-1991) an entire philosophy of strategic thinking developed around the use and avoidance of nuclear weapons.  The United States and the Soviet Union avoided direct confrontations, instead supporting “proxy” nations against each other.  It was safer:  direct confrontation meant the real possibility of escalation to nuclear conflict.

The Cold War ended on Christmas Day of 1991.  The Soviet Union collapsed, freeing many nations held against their will.  The Communist Soviet state was replaced by a nationalistic Russia.  They inherited the power, and the cost of maintaining, the nuclear burden.   The United States “won” the Cold War, and the “Communist menace” was no longer a concern. But the nuclear “balance” between the two nations remained.

Precedent

There are three ways that the two nuclear super powers can act.  The first is to accept the burden of “the bombs”, realizing that any direct military action against each other has the possibility of escalation to nuclear war.  The second is to act as if there are no nuclear weapons; and to act as a “common” nation, as if the “bombs” didn’t exist.  And the third is to use the threat of nuclear escalation as a cudgel, acting as a “rogue” state without concern for world immolation.

Russia has progressed through all three phases of super power action.  When the Russian government assumed control of the nuclear triggers, they worked in cooperation with the United States to maintain the safety and stability of the arsenal.  The biggest threat at the time was to “lose a nuke” to a non-state terrorist organization. 

But with the ascendancy of Vladimir Putin, the Russian actions became more like the old Soviet Union.  During the Cold War, they had ascendancy over Eastern Europe.  When Hungary or Czechoslovakia attempted to rise up against their Communist regimes, Soviets tanks took the streets, and the rebellions were brutally put down.  They were all within the Soviet sphere of influence. The West, specifically NATO and the United States, did nothing about it.

Sphere of Influence

So Putin learned.  He put down revolts in Chechnya and Georgia as brutally as the Soviets of old.  No one moved to stop him.  And when he sent troops into Syria to support the brutal Assad regime, the United States was on the way out of the region.  There’s no partisan split to this, both the Obama and Trump Administration let the Russians “get away” with abject cruelty to civilians in Syria.  The famous Obama “Red Line” was crossed – without retribution.  Trump seemed more than glad to withdraw US Forces from Syria, abandoning our Kurdish allies.

Putin considers Ukraine to be within his “sphere of influence”, even though it is a sovereign nation separated from the Soviet Union for over thirty years.  The Bush and Obama Administrations viewed Ukraine in much the same light, as the Ukrainian Presidency was held by Russian “puppets”.   But with the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, the Russian influenced leader was thrown out, and an independent government took charge.  Putin immediately moved to send irregular forces into the eastern Ukrainian provinces of the Donbas, claiming them as “Russian peoples”. Putin also seized the Crimean Peninsula, and maintained the strategic Russian Naval Base at Sevastopol. 

What Changed?

The Obama Administration protested and levied some sanctions, but didn’t do much else.  President Trump seemed to undercut the power of NATO as much as possible.  And they too still considered Ukraine within Russia’s “influence”.  But the development of the Ukrainian government since then, and particularly with the Zelenskyy Presidency, has changed Ukraine’s status in the eyes of the United States, and the world.  But not in the eyes of Vladimir Putin.

When Putin invaded Ukraine, he was operating under the old, Soviet era rules.  But the Biden Administration made it clear that the United States, and NATO, no longer viewed Ukraine as within Russia’s “sphere of influence”. Newer NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania were all once under Soviet control, but now were protected by Article Five of the NATO Charter.  An attack on one NATO member is an attack on all.  They, and the rest of NATO, saw the Russian invasion as a threat to all.

Ukraine War

But even then, if Russia could have pulled off their “decapitation” strategy, they would have succeeded and captured Ukraine.  NATO and the West would have protested and boycotted, but a Russian fait d’accompli would have held.  It was only when Ukraine was able to resist, and slow down the Russian blitzkrieg, that the rest of the world seriously considered what they could to do help.

So here we are in phase two of the Ukraine War.  Russia has pulled back from its decapitation strike at Kyiv, and is now waging a three hundred mile long attack along Ukraine’s eastern border.  And, with a lot of material help from the West, Ukraine is defending itself.  The fighting over the next several days will be fierce, as Putin desperately tries to “finalize” Ukraine before his self-imposed May 9th deadline.  But if he can’t, if the Ukrainian forces can hold Putin to a stalemate for the next few weeks, then what happens.

Victory or What?

Putin will try to find a way to “declare victory” and leave.  He might be able to do that with a conquest of the Eastern Provinces, or by cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea.  But if the Ukrainian Army prevents him from achieving either of those things, what then?

It’s hard to see Putin withdrawing in defeat.  His next  step might be to use some battlefield armament that change the odds, and invert the situation.  What can do that?  Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) – chemical and nuclear.  But if he uses either, he will risk an equal response, not from the Ukrainians, but from NATO and the United States.  

And why should the West respond to Putin’s use of WMD?  Because if we don’t respond, we normalize the its use.  We can see, after this first month in Ukraine, that the vaunted Russian Army “ain’t” what we thought it was.  The Russian Air Force cannot even maintain supremacy in the Ukrainian skies.  So it is in the West’s interest to make sure that Putin cannot “balance the scales” with WMD.

If this sounds like a recipe for direct US-Russian confrontation – it is.  But allowing Russia to use weapons of mass destruction with impunity may be a far worse choice.  Putin has made it publicly clear that his goal is to re-establish the Soviet Union under a new Russian Empire.  Ukraine is step one, Moldavia step two, but step three puts Russia in direct conflict with a NATO country. 

It’s not going to be a matter of “IF” we act, it’s going to be a matter of “when”.  This battle in Ukraine is the best time.

Essays on the Ukraine Crisis

Even the Stupid Ones

A Nation Divided

I’ve been writing essays about American politics for over five years.  Throughout that time, our political world has grown more divided; with a greater chasm between the left and the right.  Like the 1850’s leading up to the Civil War, our nation is polarized. The two sides are hardened in their views, and conversation between the two more and more dissonant.

We see it in elections, where a narrow electoral margin in a state like Florida marks an incredible swing in policy.  Republican Ron DeSantis won the Governorship in 2018. He defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum by around 30,000 out of well over 8 million votes cast.  In other eras, DeSantis would have seen the narrow victory as a message to govern “from the middle”.  

But in our modern times, DeSantis determined to govern even farther from the “right” than he ran.  Current Florida actions over LGBTQ and abortion rights and immigration all put the Sunshine state on the extreme right of American politics.  Elections do have consequences, but what an extreme from a result of less than one half of one percent.  How different would a Gillum governorship have been?

Old Equation

It used to be political short hand:  forty percent will vote for one side, forty the other, and how the ‘swing voters” in the middle, the twenty percent “undecided” voted, would determine the election.  The battle of campaigning was in winning the majority of the twenty percent – ten percent plus one.  That’s the “old school” of politics.  In the Democratic Party a successful candidate would “tack” left in the primary, to appeal to the middle of the Democratic base,. Then he would “tack” back to center in the general to gain the “10+1”.  A Republican candidate would do the mirror opposite, “tack” right in the primary, center in the general.

But our current politics seems to be less about the middle.  Or more correctly, the “middle” has changed.  So many voters are single issue voters, those who vote only about abortion, or guns, or one of the “fake news” issues like Critical Race Theory. It makes it so difficult to find a “middle” for a candidate to “tack” towards.  So many don’t.  They simply double-down on their base. They hope that their forty percent will show up more than the other side’s forty percent, and that the middle will “wash-out” in between.

It’s proven to be successful – in the Virginia Governor’s race in 2021, for example. The “right” forty percent showed up, the left’s did not.  And it certainly mirrors our current lack of a “compromise” middle candidate, or a new “middle” political party.

Outside the Box

But there’s a whole other “outside the box” model of electioneering.  In the biggest turnout election in American history, just two years ago, over 158 million voters went to the polls.   But that’s still short ten million voters who were actually registered to vote. And even more, it was eighty million short of the total number of adults eligible to vote.  So there’s a huge block of potential votes that are beyond the usual parameters of traditional American voting and campaigning.    And, while that huge number of Americans don’t vote, they often are counted in the polling that we look at to determine where the nation is going (or how to target a campaign).

So here’s another question. If a campaign could tap into the great mass of Americans who don’t vote at all, what difference might that make?

Who’s Right?

The Democratic left believes that, since the vast majority of non-voters are “working class”; an appeal to their economic interests might convince them to add their voice and vote to the political “fray”.  That is the strategy of the Democratic Socialists, who are convinced that there is a way to reach that great untapped resource of voters, and get them to the polls.  And maybe they’re correct – at least, the  political right seems to think so.  

Because the strategy of the right seems to be to make sure those un-registered voters find it most difficult to register and vote.  The more complex the system can become: identification, voting precincts, time to actually cast a ballot, and just general “hoops” to jump through; the less likely someone is to be convinced to  be a “new” voter.  The right-wing strategy seems designed to keep those non-voting “working class” folks from voting.  So maybe they DO know something that many of the rest of us don’t acknowledge.   There is a great untapped voting resource, and if it is reached, it will go left, not right.

It makes logical sense.  If the “right” thought that the mass of non-voters would vote for their causes, then they’d make sure that everyone, every single one, would get to vote.  

Not So Stupid

There’s a television advertising campaign for investing in digital currencies.  In one commercial, the comedian Larry David portrays a member of the American Constitutional Convention.  When the idea is agreed to that every citizen will be allowed to vote – he takes exception.  “Every citizen, even the stupid ones?” he cries out, just before he leaps for the parchment document to try to tear it shreds. 

It seems that this may be our future argument.  One side, the side “on the right”, is using voting law restrictions to say – “No, not the stupid ones”, because they fear that “stupid” is on the left. The other side, “on the left” is saying “yes, everyone, even the stupid ones, and they’re not so stupid”.  And at least one political party, my party, the Democratic Party, still seems hellbent to govern from the middle, on the old model of American politics. 

 That’s the model I grew up and campaigned with all my life.  But maybe we need to ask – is it time to be “radical” and demand that everyone, all 240 million of us, get to vote (yes, even the stupid ones). Finding a way to motivate those potential voters is the key.   Because that vote will represent the greatest common interest of America.

The Winning Message

Rivals

Petro Poroshenko was on American cable TV this morning.  Poroshenko is the former President of Ukraine, defeated in the 2019 election by current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  Poroshenko remains in Kyiv, still fighting for his country.  And though he is under indictment on corruption charges, he has stepped up as a Ukrainian public figure defending his nation against the Russian invasion.

The Zelenskyy administration is playing a “weaker” hand against the Russian military might, but where they are absolutely winning is in media strategy.  Part of that is just the nature of the story:  Russia is, in fact, invading a sovereign country to try to force them to “align” with Russian interests.  It’s hard to make a good story in favor of  “Goliath” at the gates.  And while Moscow tried to create three alternate “theories” to support their invasion, none of them have caught on with the world.

Three Strikes

First, Russia claimed to be invading out of their own national interest, to prevent NATO from being “on the border” of Russia.  Of course, NATO is already on the border of Russia all along the western border, from the Baltic to the Black Sea. There’s nothing different here.  And Ukraine’s flirtation with NATO was mostly driven by Russia’s looming threat, a self-fulfilling prophecy anyway.

Then Russia invaded to “protect” the Russian speakers in the Eastern provinces of the Donbas, similar to Hitler’s protection of the Germans in the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia in 1938.  (Yes, I just violated “Godwin’s Law”, referring any current action to Nazi Germany.  But it’s truly the best example of what Russia is doing). The problem:  many of the so-called “Russians” in the Donbas are Russian speakers, but see themselves as Ukrainians, not Russians. 

Finally Russia itself violated “Godwin’s Law”, by claiming that their invasion was to stop Nazis who were taking over Ukraine.  There are, in fact, Fascists groups in Ukraine similar to Nazis.  But, much like the Fascist groups here in the United States, they are small and have little political power.  (Fascists in the United States?  Remember the chant – “Jews will not replace us,” in Charlottesville?) They didn’t represent a “threat” to anyone, but they did provide one of the excuses that Putin needed.

And for those who claim the US media doesn’t give Russia’s “side” to this invasion, consider this.  When the tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border, Western reporters were covering the Kremlin, going to press conferences, and doing full reports from the streets of Moscow.  But that soon changed:  Putin ordered anyone who referred to the action as an invasion or a war sent to prison for up to fifteen years.  There are reporters all over Ukraine, reporting unfettered except for Russian bombs.  Is it any surprise that the Ukrainian side is told in more depth?  US news networks would love to be embedded with the Russian invasion forces – if the Russians would allow it.

The Story and The Facts

Zelenskyy tells a compelling story; the story of David against Goliath, of a peaceful homeowner defending his own front yard.  Whatever else Putin does, he lost the media battle when he cut himself off from the world. And then Putin’s media plan went from bad to worse.  The “little” Ukrainians stopped the vaunted RUSSIAN TANK FORCE – the FORCE that drove the Nazis from Stalingrad and Leningrad and captured Berlin in World War II.

Russia lost its Black Sea Fleet Flagship  to Ukrainian missile attack, the Moskva.  The Russian Army had multiple commanding generals killed on the ground (targeted because they were talking on cell phones “in the clear” during battles!).  So they have resorted to a murderous strategy of killing civilians and destroying cities.  And it’s all on world television.  

Zelenskyy has united the Ukrainian message.  Even his political rival, Poroshenko, responded  with the same “talking point” as the Mayor of Kyiv, the young members of Parliament, and even the fifteen year-old refugees in Poland.  We need more weapons, or as Poroshenko said:  “We need three things:  weapons, weapons and weapons”.  

There are tens of thousand’s dead on both sides of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  While the Ukrainian media strategy is “winning”, what the winner gets is more weapons to kill more of the enemy.  That’s what Ukraine needs – but it also means that the war will continue.  The Russian “deadline” for a victory is quickly approaching – May 9th.  The blood and violence will surely get worse before it gets better.

Essays on the Ukraine Crisis

A Scouting Story

In the Dark

It’s 4:15 am on Easter Sunday.  After a wonderful Saturday evening out with Jenn and the kids, 4:15 is “way too early” for anything.  But the “younger dogs” are up, and excited, and need to go outside. There’s nothing else to do, other than stagger out of bed, and let them out into the darkness of our fenced-in backyard.  They’ll be back soon, the lure of “carrots-carrots-carrots” is too strong, then it’s try to go back to bed.

But of course, by then it’s too late to go right back to sleep.  4:15am on Easter Sunday morning actually holds a fond place in my memory.  When I was a kid, twelve and thirteen and fourteen, the Easter Sunday morning darkness was reserved for Boy Scout Troop 229.  

We lived in Kettering, Ohio, a south suburb of Dayton, in the late 1960’s.  Dad was running the TV station there, and I started my Scouting career in Cub Scout Pack 229 at Southdale Elementary School.  Back then, that was what most suburban boys did, start out with fifty other boys in the blue of a Cub Pack, then transition as a “Webelo” to the connected Boy Scout Troop.  Soon I started working my way up the “ranks” of Troop 229, both individually (Tenderfoot, Second Class, First Class, Star, Life, Eagle) and in leadership positions.  I was an Assistant Patrol Leader, Patrol Leader, and finally the Senior Patrol Leader, the “head kid” of the Scout Troop.  

Head Kid

So on Easter Sunday morning I was the “SPL”,  the boy in charge, and there wasn’t much choice for me about staying in bed.  The City of Dayton held an Easter sunrise celebration at the Carillon Park, located just on the south side of downtown.  The Carillon bells would ring in the rising sun, and there were songs and prayers to celebrate the day.  Our Troop was in charge of handing out the programs and directing folks in the dark as they arrived.  

It was a “full dress” Boy Scout exercise, with our (then) green uniforms, complete with our Troop’s own neckerchief.  Each Scout wore all their accumulated medals, some of us “clinking” as we walked.  We also had the red “Jac-Shirts” for the usually cold Easter mornings. Then there were the merit badge sashes, the round emblems marking our progress towards the ultimate individual rank goal:  Eagle Scout.  Six of us were working together, earning specialized knowledge of things like First Aid, Canoeing, Camping, Hiking, and Citizenship, and also skills like Drafting and Woodworking.  

It took twenty-one merit badges to get to Eagle, and having a crew working together made it easier.  That was especially true when it was time to do our “Projects”, the culminating service project that each Eagle candidate was required to create, plan, and carry out to prove that they had the organizational and leadership skills to meet the “Eagle Standard”.  You couldn’t do it on your own, you had to involve others to make the project work.  And since we all needed each other, it made the effort easier to get done.  All six of us were awarded our Eagle Medal together.

Sleepy Eyes

Looking back I feel a lot of sympathy for Dad on those Easter Sunday mornings.  He and Mom enjoyed Saturday nights more than I knew at the time, and Dad was the only driver in the house.  So it was up to him to get me to the Carillon Park in the darkness, something I’m sure he wasn’t very happy with.  But he never complained to me.  I’m sure there was a lot more coffee involved than I realized at the time. 

It was a challenge for me, corralling thirty-some sleepy kids in green and red in the cold darkness at the Carillon.  But I had good Patrol Leaders who each had their squad of kids to marshal into the right positions, and our “well-oiled machine” of kid leadership got the job done in spite of the sleep in our eyes. 

Scouting Way

Easter Sunday morning was just one example of the Boy Scout “way” of teaching leadership to young boys (now boys and girls).  After the ceremony, we got a chance to check out one of the original Wright Brothers airplanes, housed right next to the bells.  Dayton was the Wright Brothers home, and while they flew first in North Carolina, it was in the fields near where we rode our bikes that they really developed the machine that changed the world.  Orville Wright had only died twenty years before.  We marveled at the wood and canvas “kite” with an engine.

Then it was head for home for Easter Sunday – breakfast and Easter baskets and family.

It’s amazing how much Boy Scouts impacted my life.  The skills I used as a teacher and a coach and an organizer I can trace back to the teachings of the adults in Troop 229 in Dayton, and even more Troop 819 when we moved to Wyoming near Cincinnati.  And talk about habit:  my “medals” from Scouting are still in the top drawer of my dresser, ready to pin on a uniform shirt (that surely wouldn’t fit) in a moment’s notice.  

I was trying to get an outdoor fire going at the restaurant last night, as we sat outside in the wind watching it whip up Buckeye Lake.  Jenn commented – “well, he’s an Eagle Scout”.  Some things stick, even fifty-plus years later.  

The Sunday Story Series

HEY DEMOCRATS!!

Counting the Cost

My fellow Democrats – this essay is for you.  I know, we are disappointed.  When Joe Biden was elected, we hoped for change (wasn’t that an Obama slogan?). There was so much to get done.  The list was long:  voting rights, police reform, health insurance reform, student loan forgiveness, infrastructure repair, tax reform, LGBTQ rights, early childhood education, affordable child care.   And there was also Covid, Afghanistan, China, inflation, and now, the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  

After a year and a half, it just doesn’t seem like much has been accomplished.  Sure we managed to pass Covid relief bills.  But Covid itself seems to be endemic now, something we must learn to live with.  When Joe Biden took office, there were 400,000 Covid deaths in the US ten months after the pandemic began.  Now, fifteen months later, the death toll is approaching one million.  

Covid treatments have improved, the vaccinations seem to help, but the reality is that Covid is doing what Covid wants.  The chance to “stop Covid” ended somewhere around June of 2021, when vaccinations and masks stopped being about medicine, and became all about political identity.  Now Covid deaths seem to be a function of politics – did your ideology allow you to get the vaccine or not.

Frustration

We thought that the death of George Floyd and the conviction of his killers would change how America is policed.  But evidence shows that little has changed.  Today the news is filled with another video: an unarmed Black man killed by a police officer.  He was pulled over for a car license violation. It escalated into a life and death struggle.  That continues to happen in our nation, as do mass shootings. We seem helpless to make changes.

The Biden election triggered a tsunami of “voting reforms”, with the purpose of keeping people from the polls, and electing Republicans to office.  The solution to those “reforms” sits in the US Senate, unable to overcome the united block of Republican Senators, aided and abetted by two Democrats.

Skin of Our Teeth

And that’s the point.  While Democrats won the White House, their grip on the House of Representatives and the Senate is tenuous.  In the House, only four votes kept Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker’s Chair instead of Kevin McCarthy.  Those four votes allowed the investigation of the January 6th Insurrection, an event that literally would have been swept under the rug, like the broken glass from the halls of the Capitol, had McCarthy been in charge.  

But a four vote margin means that any small block of Democratic Congressmen can control what becomes law and what does not.  That’s not the Democrats “fault”.  Republicans in both the House and the Senate have simply refused to participate in governing. Sixty Republican Congressmen even voted against military support for Ukraine.  No deal can be made that brings them across the aisle, so Democrats must do everything by themselves. They even had to increase the debt limit so that the United States doesn’t go into default without a Republican vote.  That empowers every four Democratic Congressmen with a “veto” on every proposal.

Minimal control is even worse in the Senate. Democrats and Republicans are tied at fifty-fifty.  Only the Democratic Vice President’s tiebreaker gives Democrats control.  As President Biden said, every Democratic Senator has a “Presidential veto”.  And, because Republicans have, as a block, refused to participate in “running” the nation, two Democratic Senators in particular have stopped many of the most important legislative proposals.

Hope

Democrats shouldn’t focus their ire on Manchin and Sinema.  It’s 2022, and there’s an election in November.  I’m well aware that “history” informs us that Democrats will probably lose seats in the House and Senate.  And since there are almost no seats “to lose”, Republicans are looking forward to regaining control of the Congress again.

But that doesn’t have to be.  The Senate is primed for Democratic expansion, in spite of the state voting law restrictions.  Tim Ryan in Ohio, John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin and Val Demings in Florida all have strong candidacies to win current Republican seats.  Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Mark Kelly in Arizona, and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada need to defend their seats as well.  Should most of these candidates win, then Manchin and Sinema will have less impact on what happens.

That’s especially true when it comes to Presidential appointments.  Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has already made it clear.  If he controls, Joe Biden will not fill another vacant Supreme Court seat.  While Democrats thought about “Court Packing” before the 2020 election, McConnell has discovered “Court Shrinking” as a way to maintain his conservative majority on the Court.

The Bottom Line

And while Speaker Pelosi’s control of the House looks even more at risk, re-districting may ultimately favor Democrats over Republicans, despite the “Red Map” Republican efforts to gerrymander.  Former Attorney General Eric Holder and attorney Marc Elias’s Democratic efforts in the Courts have held the worst Republican map-manipulations to a minimum.  

The bottom line:  Democrats can bemoan their failures, stay home in November, and let Republicans gain control of the House and Senate.  We can say “a pox on both your houses”.  And then, things will get infinitely worse.  Or we can get to work.  We can register voters and get them to the polls, regardless of the new voting restrictions.  We can work for candidates, and most of all, we can SHOW UP in November.  

If we do, the actions of Manchin, Sinema, and the Republicans; won’t matter.

26 Days

Victory Day

On the 9th of May, 1945, German General Dietrick Von Saucken’s Second Army surrendered to  Soviet forces, ending the month long battle for Berlin, and World War II in Europe.  Almost 200,000 soldiers died in the battle, with at least 20,000 civilian deaths as well (though accurate civilian numbers were impossible to know).  It was the triumph of Soviet military power over the Nazis, the final “comeback” from the defeats of 1941 and ’42, when Nazi troops stood at the gates of Moscow.

May 9th is celebrated today in Russia simply as “Victory Day”.  Originally it was the victory of Communism over Nazism, now the victory of Russia over the German fascist regime.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin is acutely aware of the symbolism of “Victory Day”.  It’s why Russian propaganda about the current Ukraine invasion claims that Russian troops are trying to “cleanse Ukraine of Fascists”.  When Russian troops knocked on civilian doors on Bucha, they demanded to know where the “Nazis” were.  Many Ukrainian civilians were executed for being “Nazis”. 

It’s what motivated Russia’s conscript Army, living up to their great-grandfather’s stories of The Great War against the Nazis.  Those soldiers thought that’s what the invasion of Ukraine was all about. And it’s why there’s a current moral issue in the Russian Army has now.  The soldiers discovered that the Ukrainians weren’t “Nazis” at all, but more like their friends and neighbors back at home.  Instead of heroes rescuing Ukrainians from fascists, they realized that they are invaders.

Deadline for Victory

But the “Victory Day” story is still the one that Russians are seeing on their media.  Gaining “victory” by May 9th is the unwritten deadline Putin has set for his military commanders.  But since the Ukrainians stopped the “blitzkrieg” offensive to Kyiv, and shown that there will be a stubborn defense of every inch of Ukrainian soil, what “victory” means to Putin has changed.

He cannot conquer Ukraine.  So he must find an alternative “victory” to give the Russian people, and he’s got twenty-six days to do it.

The Russians are maneuvering to support a new strategy:  to break away the eastern regions of Ukraine to become a separate country, beholden to Russia.  And he’s made it clear that he will conquer the region regardless of the cost to the Ukrainian people.  Look at the city of Mariupol, now leveled, with tens of thousands of civilian casualties.  It is what Putin wants every Ukrainian to see, surrender, or face total destruction if they stand against the Russian forces.

Re-Arming

But Ukraine is clear – there will be no surrender, anywhere in the country.  And as the Russians regroup, the Ukrainians are rearming.  The United States and NATO are getting more sophisticated weapons to the Ukrainian Army.  It’s a complex dilemma for the United States; the Ukrainian Army is essentially equipped with Soviet era weaponry.  The US cannot just supply them with American complex armament, the Ukrainian don’t know how to use it.  So the US is finding older Russian and Soviet weapons, from other former countries under Soviet control, to move quickly into Ukrainian hands.  

That is, by the way, why there was such a controversy over the Polish MiG 29’s that were offered several weeks ago.  Ukrainian pilots can’t just switch over to US planes, they are trained on MiG’s.  But the Poles were unwilling to risk directly transferring the planes and risk further Russian ire.  They wanted to gives the MiG’s to the US Air Force at Ramstein AFB, to then be given to the Ukrainians.  But the US didn’t want to be the intermediary, and so the deal fell apart.

Putin’s Choice

Vladimir Putin has one choice for victory in Ukraine now, a scorched-earth policy of civilian destruction.  He’s brought in a new commanding General,  Alexander Dvornikov, known as the “butcher” of Aleppo and Grozny for his brutal battle tactics without regard for civilian casualties.  He’s moved his armies away from Kyiv and the northern borders, to an all-or-nothing attack along the east and south.

And Ukraine is rushing to move their troops to counter the Russian shift, and to re-arm them with the weaponry pouring in across the borders from the West.  US drone weapons, anti-tank missiles, and even Russian made helicopters are headed into battle.  Both sides recognize:  whatever is going to happen, it’s happening in the next twenty-six days.  Putin’s personal deadline is near.

Essays on the Invasion of Ukraine

Hypocrisy Anew

What God Did

I know I’ve written about this a lot – but the cynical cruelty of Republican governments in Texas and Alabama and Arkansas – why it’s literally breathtaking.  With the stroke of a pen, those three states (and more to come I’m sure) are attacking some of the most vulnerable kids in our society.  They are attacking the incredibly small percentage who, through no fault of their own, are transgendered.

Governor Ivey of Alabama made it plain: the transgendered do not fit in with her religious ideals.  They should be “what God made them” she said.  So let’s start with the First Amendment. It says Congress (and through the 14th Amendment, the state legislatures) shall make no law establishing religion.  But Governor Ivey in Alabama, and the other Governors and State Legislatures, are placing their version of conservative Christian doctrine into law.

In Their Heart

Think of a transgendered teenager.  In their brain, in their heart, in their whole being, they know they are not their “birth gender designation”.  It’s not a “mental disorder”, science demonstrates that gender is based on a whole series of genetic variables.  Only a few of those relate to what visibly are called “sex characteristics”:  ovaries, testicles and such.  That’s what the hospital puts on the birth certificate, but we now know that there is so much more to gender than the obvious.  The rest relates to brain function, the gender of the “brain” .

So that brain, heart, and being, are trapped in the wrong body.  And as puberty hits, that body betrays that brain, heart and being, with every development.  Is it any wonder that 80% of transgendered folks have considered suicide, and 40% actually attempted it.  So these few kids, so trapped, turn to parents and other adults for help.  And there is help:  doctors can prescribe drugs to stop secondary development, visibly breasts and hips in one case, beards, hair and muscles in the other.  It’s not surgery, it’s delaying the onset of what we all know occurs.  Surgery isn’t an option for children; in almost every case, gender altering surgery is only available to adults.

The Few

It’s such a small number of children.  And it’s not a “fad”, something that kids will somehow outgrow.  We all went to school, we all remember how much we wanted to fit in, to be “normal”.  But those kids aren’t “normal”, they are physiologically different.  And the laws or regulations of those states are sentencing them to their worst nightmare:  being trapped in an opposite gendered body.

What are those laws and regulations doing?  In Texas, it’s currently considered child abuse to prescribe drugs to halt puberty, a felony crime.  The Alabama law will do the same.  With the whole weight of the authority of the State, doctors are ordered to stop treating these adolescents.  The “children’s services” departments have been turned to seek out those “breaking” the new rule, and charge them for “child abuse”, doctors and parents alike.  Teachers are ordered to report possibly transgendered students to parents and the “authorities”.  

Political Points

Not only have they cut away the medical supports from those kids, they are cutting away their other support systems as well. The politicians are “enforcing” a singular religious view – and they are using that “enforcement” to benefit politically. It’s the same political force that demanded that Covid vaccination and mask wearing were matters of personal choice.  Personal choice: but only when it’s applied to them and their supporters, not when it’s applied to the children and parents who are dealing with one of the most difficult conditions a family can face.  Calling them out as hypocrites hardly has the depth to describe those taking this political position.

In our incredibly polarized political climate, it feeding “red meat” to the base.  The right has discovered “sex” as their new talking point – whether it’s the transgendered, or their ridiculous efforts to discredit a Supreme Court nominee as “pro-child porn”.  They are appealing to “jack up” their base, heighten their excitement, and drive them to the polls in a state of righteous indignation.  

Bullying

These efforts to attack the transgendered only work because the government “knows”. A transgendered person is invisible, except that the schools have records, or the driver’s license bureau demands birth certificates. These children and families are quietly working through a most difficult crisis, but the “state” uses the power of bureaucracy to drive them out into the public, and then demand they, “…be what God made them”. It’s the height of authoritarianism, a jack-booted principal standing at the restroom door demanding, “Show me your papers”.

If you believe in God, those children are, “…what God made them”.  And any merciful God would want these few children to be happy, not trapped.  And certainly not bullied by politicians, supposedly acting “in their welfare”, but really only seeking a few more votes on election day.  It’s subjugation, it’s disgusting, and it’s wrong.

What’s Missing

This probably should have been a “Sunday Story” – but here we are on Monday, and I have a story to tell.

Testing

I’ve never tested positive for Covid.  But, I’m a sixty-five year old “retired” guy, so I don’t necessarily take Covid tests often.  Jenn and I don’t intentionally “isolate” ourselves, but we aren’t out in the “workplace” every day, and we can go days without direct contact with other people.  So if we don’t feel good, we just hang out at home.

But somewhere in the last few months, Covid must have come a-calling.  January neither one of us felt very good.  We both took several Covid tests, and were negative each time. But we both felt lousy.  I can tell you the two days I felt good from New Year’s to the end of the month. We thought it was just the typical winter cold or flu.  There was a lot of NCIS and Law and Order SVU on TV:  and we spent most of the month by the fire in our lounge chairs.

So why do I think we had Covid then?  

What’s Missing

We have five dogs.  Five dogs means that there is a lot of “poop” to pick up in the backyard, several days a week.  And that’s my job, the “poopologist” with the special tools and bucket, gathering up the poop.  The dogs think they’re very important, as I gather all their poop, and they get all excited while I’m out there.  But, since January, I do notice a big difference.

I can’t smell poop.

In fact, I can’t smell the coffee in the morning.  I don’t smell the rain coming in, or the steaks on the grill, or the diesel fumes of the truck in front of my Jeep.  For a man who has prided himself on an acute sense of smell (the result, of course, of a “prominent” nose); it’s gone.  The only thing I think I smell – dust.  You know that smell when you first turn the heater on in October, that smell of cooked dust coming out of the ducts?  I smell that, all the time.  

I was a track coach, and I got really used to the smell: old shoes, moldy sweats in the locker room, and sweat soaked athletes after a tough workout.  I’m still track officiating, but there’s no smells there – at least that I can smell.

Smell, by the way, is closely associated with taste. Half of the “good part” of eating, is smelling the food being prepared, and getting that anticipatory “sniff” just before a bite hits your mouth. I can still taste, some, but without smell it just isn’t the same. How bad is that? We had scrambled eggs and sausage yesterday for “Sunday” breakfast. I had a bite, then went and got the “hot sauce” out of the refrigerator. I never use hot sauce, at least, I never used to use hot sauce. But I did yesterday – maybe I lost some of my sense of taste as well.

Brain Fog

Not being able to smell is actually annoying.  But last week I had a different symptom, which was a lot more concerning.  I woke up one morning, and my brain just wasn’t working.  I struggled through the morning “ritual”:  feeding the dogs, cleaning up the kitchen, putting the dishes away.  Then  I sat down in front of the computer, and put the dreaded “blank page” up on the screen.  Nothing happened – I couldn’t form a thought on paper.  It wasn’t like being hung over – hangovers make you feel bad, but don’t stop you from thinking how bad you feel.

 I went to the hardware store – and couldn’t remember what WD-40 was called (it’s a penetrating oil).  Instead I asked for 10W-40; that’s a motor oil for the car, and Steve at the store looked kind of incredulous as he pointed out the entire wall with the 24” letters saying “MOTOR OIL”.  

And then I went to Kroger’s – and I had “one job”:  get macaroni and cheese.  Jenn loves it, and we buy it all the time.  And the key is to buy one that doesn’t need milk, because we generally don’t have milk around.  I spent ten minutes examining boxes, discovering which of the several versions of Kraft Mac and Cheese didn’t need milk.  Finally, I figured it out – then still ended up buying five boxes that needed milk.

When I came home, I found myself missing words I needed, unable to find the right ones to explain what I wanted to say.  Again, I’m sixty-five.  Did I have a stroke and not realize it?  But all of the “physical” signs were fine so I did what any good “Dahlman” does when something isn’t working right.  I went to bed.

Testing-Testing

A couple of hours later I woke up, and everything was normal.  Every word was there when I needed it, the blank page on the computer screen wasn’t insurmountable, I knew the difference between penetrating oil and motor oil and Kraft Mac and Cheese with and without milk.  

Another Covid symptom is called “Brain Fog”.  I get what that is now.  For one morning in April, my brain was definitely more than fogged.  It was what my mother would have called a “pea-souper”.  But a few hours later, I was functioning fine, at a track meet, every event and action in place.

So now I wake up in the morning and do a “mental agility test*”.  As I prep five dog bowls I think about my personal “challenge”:  name the nine members of the Supreme Court, the original five Rolling Stones, the Christmas flowers I can never remember in December, and the name of the Republican Congressman who represents us in Washington. Oh, and the two vegetables I always struggle with – broccoli and brussels sprouts.   If I can do that, then there’s no “fog” going on today.

I took another Covid test this morning, while I was writing this essay.  It’s negative, and it’s out into the world for another track meet in the rain tonight.  But somewhere in the past few months, in spite of three Pfizer shots and months of mask wearing, I suspect Covid found its way in.  My symptoms aren’t a huge deal – but I hope they sneak out soon, the same way they slipped in.

(*Answer key for the “test”: 1 – Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett, Roberts, Breyer, Sotomayor, Kagan; 2-Jagger, Richards, Woods, Wyman, Watts; 3- Poinsettias; 4- Balderson; 5-broccoli is the “tree”, brussel’s sprouts the lettuce head.)

The Sunday Story Series

Chapter Two

War Crimes

The Russian invasion is not over.  Even though there seems to be a “pause”, while Russian troops committed to the failed “decapitation” attack on Kyiv are withdrawn, Putin is not done.  The Ukrainians have scored a “tactical” and moral victory, but Russia is just starting.

To understand that, you simply have to look at what Russia forces have done in Ukraine.  The war crimes; intentional infliction of civilian casualties, the blatant targeting of children, the “scorched earth” destruction of villages and cities:  all signal a long-term commitment to “winning”.  No nation can intentionally commit those acts with the idea that they can then withdraw to the original lines.  Things will NEVER be the same, between Russia and Ukraine, and with the rest of the world.

And the truly evil Russian strategy is now apparent.  The choice they are offering the Ukrainian people is either submit to Russian control, or die.  It’s not about battles between armies, but a World War II view of total civilian devastation.  Russia’s done this before:  in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria.  The difference this time, is that the Russians haven’t won the battles, so they can’t write the story.  

Ukrainian Defense

The Ukrainian defense is brilliant.  But just as brilliant is the Ukrainian public relations campaign.  President Zelenskyy, a product of mass media, is leading his nation in making their case to the world.  The mayors of the cities, the young members of the Ukrainian legislature, the troop commanders; all are widely accessible to the world press.  And clearly, they are all on the same “page”.  Their message:  more aid, better supplies, bigger weapons.   And just as importantly:  cut Russia off.

The world will not come to Ukraine’s rescue militarily.  NATO’s message to Putin is also clear:  the alliance will do everything it can to support Ukraine short of direct military involvement.  That is, as long as Russia keeps the military action within the borders of Ukraine, and keeps weapons of mass destruction “off the table”.  

What’s left for the world to do?  Completely cut Russia off from world trade, most importantly from the world oil and gas markets.  It’s not just about Europe and the United States; India and China are long-term Russian fossil fuel customers.  While Ukrainians are sacrificing their homes and lives and families, they are asking the rest of the world to commit to sacrifice economically.  Higher fuel prices worldwide would be the result.  

The Next Phase

The next phase of the Russian Invasion will be to consolidate their gains in the Donbas region, and break those eastern provinces away from Ukrainian control.  Then they will try to castrate the Ukrainian economy by capturing the entire Black Sea coast, cutting off sea routes into the nation.   The siege of port city of Mariupol is part of that strategy, though little of the city of almost half a million is going to be left when it’s over.  But whatever the fate of Mariupol is, the next Russian offensive will be from the territory they already control in Crimea against the city of Kherson.  

Kherson is the key  to the western Black Sea coast, and the ultimate goal for Russian control: Odessa.  That’s the major port city serving Ukraine, and a Russian conquest there would signal total control of the Ukrainian seacoast.

Victory’s Cost

The longer Ukraine holds out, the more impact Western sanctions will have on Russia. The question isn’t about the determination of the Ukrainian people, nor of Putin’s resolve to continue the attack. The question is – how long will the western nations continue their whole hearted support for Ukraine? As most of those nations are democracies, their support will be contingent on the continuing backing of their populations.

There will be lots of elections held in the Western democracies.  The peoples of those countries will be offered a choice:  sacrifice for Ukraine, or let Putin achieve his goals.  The forces of division and authoritarianism aren’t just restricted to the United States (and Fox News).  France, Great Britain, and several of the Eastern European nations have similar issues.  If sacrificing for Ukraine becomes a “political” issue (and these days what isn’t) then even Zelenskyy’s best media efforts won’t be enough to get the true support he needs.  He knows he has to win a victory in Columbus and Pittsburgh, as well as Kherson.

The fate of Ukraine is up to the Ukrainians, but it also is up to us.

Essays on the Ukraine Crisis

Talking Dirty

Law and Order – SVU

So here’s a strange question: what’s up with the “right” and talking dirty? I mean, there were times in the Jackson Supreme Court nomination process when I wanted to turn off the TV and go wash my hands. Hawley, Cruz, Cotton and Graham were intent on describing cases of child pornography in graphic detail. They had the audience squirming in their seats, like those incredibly awkward moments of confession in Law and Order SVU when Stabler (in the early days) looked like he was going to beat the suspect. And the Senators were doing it intentionally, to a judge who sent those same pornographers to Federal prison for years, and added decades of restrictions and labels.

It wasn’t about her punishing them, it was about whether she punished them “long enough”.  So we all get to share in pederast stories.

Don’t Say G*y

And then there’s the Florida politicians (and now Ohio) who are trying to convince us that our kid’s kindergarten teacher is trying to teach them about sex.  Good Lord, they’re doing their best with the “ABC’s” and math (yep, Kindergarteners are supposed to read and do math before first grade now).  Sure, those teachers have to deal with sexual “identity” – which kids go to the “little girls” room, and which go to the “little boys”.  But they certainly aren’t in the business of discussing the nuances of gay, straight, trans and queer.

The “right” is using a “sex” term we learned on Law and Order SVU.   Teachers supposedly are “grooming” kids in the classroom to be LGBTQ.  Reality from the classroom – that doesn’t happen.  Teachers are far too busy documenting, teaching standards, testing-testing-testing, and making sure kids are “OK” to “groom” anything.  And if they did, it doesn’t take a  new law against it.  The entire world of education would fall on them. 

What “sex stuff” might regular teachers discuss?  An primary teaching friend had to explain to Johnny, in the simplest (and briefest) way possible, why his penis was stiff.  Sex was NOT the answer, just a brief “this is a normal boy’s body” kind of thing.  

Divorce and Gay Marriage

When I was in first grade in 1962, we found out about something called a “divorce”.  Divorces were rare in those days, and when a kid in class had parents that were getting divorced, it posed a “threat” to all of us.  I don’t remember Miss Fox going into details, but she did find a way to make the child whose parents were divorcing, and the rest of us, understand that it wasn’t the child’s fault.  That kid found acceptance in class, at a time when he needed it most.

Today, almost half the kids in class are from divorced families.  Good or bad, it’s a common part of our culture, one that kids share.  Today’s equivalent to 1962’s divorce, is parents of the same sex.  But if the Miss Fox of 2022 tries to find a way to make those kids feel “OK”, then is she violating the “Don’t Say Gay” law in Florida, or the one proposed now in Ohio?  To the best I can tell, the answer to that question is, Yes.

Kids are smart, especially when it comes to the adults who impact their lives.  They know when the teacher isn’t talking about something, when they are leaving silence where explanations usually occur.  And kids make the connection – if Miss Fox won’t talk about it, then it must be a bad thing.  A message is sent, and received.

Trans Hype

And then there’s this hyped-up issue of transgendered women competing in high school sports.  Utah’s Governor Spencer Cox vetoed a proposed participation ban in his state (though his veto was ultimately overridden).  He pointed out, that out of the over 85,000 kids competing in Utah high school sports, four were transgendered women.  A law, written, debated, hyped, vetoed and overridden:  for four kids.  

The reality – transgendered kids are trying to find a social place in the world, and athletics can help.  Out of the entire nation, with millions of kids participating in athletics, critics can point out about four cases where transgendered women are “succeeding” against biological women.  But Fox News gives near-daily updates on their success, ginning up the base, and targeting one of the most vulnerable groups in our society:  transgendered kids. Look, studies indicate that 80% of transgendered folks have considered suicide and 40% have attempted it, mostly as youth (National Institute of Health).  I’m sure that a law that specifically impacts the four kids in Utah won’t help that statistic.

Why Sports

I was a coach for forty years – cross country, wrestling and track, high school and middle school, girls and boys.  I am proud of the dozens of kids who left our programs and went on to compete at the collegiate level, and the very few who made a national impact on their sports.  But for the vast majority of those thousands of kids on “my” teams over the years, it wasn’t about medals and scholarships.  

It was about being a part of a team, a family.  For some of those kids, it was the “best” family they had.  And it was about accepting the physical challenges of practice and competition, and finding ways to improve.  Those kids learned how to do more than they thought possible, and found the relationship between hard work and improvement. And they learned the joy of sharing a common struggle, effort and goal with their teammates.

LGBTQ kids often need that “family” more than anyone else.  The LGBTQ kids I worked with certainly did.  Politicians standing on a soap-box and drawing a red-line on their participation only hurts them more, and sends a clear message to every other kid.  Rejection is real – and that’s what the “right” is doing for political gain.  The hurt and loss that causes will be real too.

The Ohio Way

Retirement

I am a retired teacher.  I worked for thirty-five and a half years, and got what I thought was a great deal when I retired.  It was “part of the plan”.  No one was going to get rich teaching public school, but there was always the “promise” of a great retirement system at the end.  It was so good, that when I started teaching, they exempted us from Medicare and Social Security.  Instead, we paid a greater percentage of our salary into State Teacher Retirement, and our School District matched the amount.  

The promise:  a great retirement system – one of the best in the country.  Today Ohio Teacher Retirement is rated 36th in the Nation with an “F” grade (Bellweather). (And Ohio teachers today do have to pay Social Security and Medicare.  They earn Medicare benefits, but while they also earn Social Security they only get a small portion of what they earn – the rest are taxed away as a “windfall”). 

Old Deal

What was my “deal”, the retirement “contract”?

I worked more than thirty-five years.  I could have retired at thirty years with two-thirds of my income.  But there was a teacher shortage and they encouraged us “old” teachers to hang on. By working the extra five years, I retired with 88% of my annual income.  (I was one of the last for that deal – now it’s 77% thirty-five years).  And as I planned my retirement, I was promised a 3%  annual Cost of Living Allowance increase (COLA) for the rest of my life.  

I got my 88%.  But a couple years before I retired, they cut the COLA to 2% instead of 3%.  And the year before I retired, the put a five-year hold on all COLA’s.  And then five years later, they determined to not give COLA increases at all.  (Last month, they finally did approve a one-time 3% increase).

New Deal

I’m lucky, my wife retired with great health insurance and I’m on her policy.  If I were on teacher’s health insurance, I’d be paying a lot more.  Like everyone else, I purchase Medicare (Part B), the “doctor care” part of it.  But since I never paid into Medicare, I never “earned” the biggest part of Medicare, hospitalization (Part A).  If I had to buy that, it’d be almost $500 a month, in addition to all the other insurance.  So much for the “great deal” there.

Now the “new deal” is:  live on what you made almost a decade ago.  I can do that, but with inflation, it’s worth 21% less than when I retired.  I’m now effectively living on 70% of my annual income. 

So I’m doing some substitute teaching, just to cover the “difference”.  Substituting doesn’t pay what teaching pays, and it shouldn’t.  A sub isn’t grading papers, making lesson plans, or participating in conferences and meetings.  You walk in, pick up your packet from the office, and supervise kids.  When the bell rings to end the day, your work is done. On an hourly basis, I’m making less than a third of what I made on contract.

And that’s fine too – it’s a choice I make when I substitute.  But there’s even a “hitch” to that.

My Work – Their Money

As a substitute teacher, the School District is still required to take 14% of my substitute salary out for “retirement”. (Ohio has the highest percent withholding in the nation, more than 2% greater than any other state).  State Teacher Retirement takes that 14% and puts it in an “annuity for me”, paying a small annual interest as long as I continue to substitute.  Once I stop, the interest payments stop as well, and State Teacher Retirement “encourages” me to remove the annuity (and pay taxes on it).  In addition, the School District matches my 14%, just as they did when I was on contract as a teacher.

But THEIR 14%, paid for MY work, just goes into the general retirement fund.  I don’t get it, I don’t benefit from it, and neither does the School District.  Money paid BY the School District, FOR MY WORK, is paid like a “fee” to the State Teacher Retirement to do with what they will.

If I wasn’t a retired teacher, that “fee” would go to my retirement.  But since I’m drawing my retirement, it’s a “penalty” paid because I’m teaching again.  I work for it, but I don’t benefit from it.  And neither does the District.  They are paying into a State Teacher Retirement “black hole”.  

Ohio’s Way

There are over 20,000 substitute teachers here in Ohio.   While exact numbers aren’t available, a substantial number of them are retired teachers.  And all of those retired teachers are paying  into a retirement system “for the privilege” of working while drawing retirement. They are being penalized – even though it’s the School Districts that are paying the penalty.  

Abraham Lincoln, in his debate with Stephen Douglas said: “You toil and work and earn bread, and I’ll eat it.”

“You do the work, State Teacher Retirement will get the benefit” – it’s not the American way.  It shouldn’t be Ohio’s way either.

Drive the Wedge

I have found “my place” through political ads – a “liberal swamp person”(is that a movie?) who is/was a “leftist indoctrinator” of children in education (obviously not a successful one). Oh, and I didn’t hold my nose to vote for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg (in the primary). I was proud to vote for all!!

Splitting Logs

In “the old” days, splitting logs was an athletic experience.  Instead of just feeding them into a log-splitting machine, the axe-man had to place a heavy wedge shaped piece of iron or steel into the top of the log, then drive it in until the log split. The wedge caused the split, but it was the axe-man driving it home that broke the log into pieces.

Wedge issues are nothing new in American politics.  We’ve been “split” since even before the ratification of the Constitution in 1786.  Supporters of the new document were “Federalists” (including Madison and Hamilton on the same side) while those opposed  (best known, Virginia Governor Patrick Henry of “…Give me Liberty, or Give me Death!!”) were anti-Federalists.  Political division is as American as the Founding Fathers, the Fourth of July and the Bill of Rights.

Ohio’s Issue 1

One of the best examples of using a wedge issue to drive-up the vote for one side, was in 2004’s Presidential election in Ohio.  It was only eighteen years ago (though it seems like a whole different age). President George W Bush was running a close race to gain re-election against Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.  Ohio was a critical source of electoral votes for both sides.  And while there was a concerted effort to smear Kerry (the “Swift-Boating” attack), it wasn’t the smear that drove voters to the polls.

Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell of Cincinnati, found a way to make sure that the conservative vote in Ohio showed up.  It wasn’t about the Presidential race, rather Blackwell placed a proposed Ohio Constitutional Amendment on the ballot that restricted marriage in the state to between a man and a woman.  It banned gay marriages in Ohio.  The Amendment passed by 61%, but more importantly voters who supported the Amendment also overwhelmingly supported George Bush, who won the state by a narrow 51% to 49% margin.

Alternative Truths

So while there is nothing new in using particular issues to drive voting blocks apart, in our day of metastasized social media, “driving wedges” is even more effective.  And while in the past most issues in American politics had some basis in truth, some of today’s wedge issues are “beyond” truth, more akin to the alternative facts best known from the Trump Administration.

Obviously, “Stop the Steal” is one of these issues.  About thirty percent of Americans believe that Joe Biden and the Democrats somehow “stole” the 2020 Presidential election.  And while thirty percent is nowhere near the majority needed to win a general election, that number represents a majority of Republican voters.  So whether a candidate believed that the election was stolen, is a wedge in hotly contested primaries.  

Trump

And for Democrats, Donald Trump himself becomes a wedge, driving the voter turnout up.  But, to alter rhetorical implements for a moment, using Trump as a wedge is a “double-edged sword”.  If Trump himself is running, Democrats show up in droves, but so do Republicans.  The 2020 election was the largest voter turnout in US history, despite the Covid pandemic.  And Democrats have discovered that if Trump isn’t on the ballot, but used as a “specter” hovering over the election, it doesn’t always work out well.  The Virginia Governor’s election, where Democrat Terry McAuliffe tried to “hang” Trump around his Republican opponent’s neck didn’t get Democrats out to vote.

What did work in Virginia was the faux issue misnamed “Critical Race Theory”.  Republican Glenn Youngkin used the false “fact” that public schools were trying to “indoctrinate” children into radical beliefs to motivate his voters to the polls.  He claimed that schools were teaching white children were all “racists”, or were encouraging children to “become” gay or transgendered.  In a debate McAuliffe made the obvious but dangerous statement that “parents shouldn’t tell schools what to teach”.  That helped Youngkin drive his wedge home.  

The current US Senate race in Ohio will test the “Trump” theory.  All but one of the seven Republican candidates are trying to run in Trump’s footsteps.  One even has the campaign slogan – “Pro God, Pro Guns and Pro Trump” (all on an equal footing).  His closest opponent claims to be a successful businessman, “…just like Trump, only better”.  Whoever wins the primary, they will have a tougher time hiding from the Trump label than Governor Youngkin did.

Fake Issues

And almost all Republican candidates are still following the Trump lead of running, “on the border”.  While you don’t hear so much about “THE WALL”, candidates are still using the threat that “illegal immigrants” are going to “TAKE YOUR JOBS”.  The problem with that:  right now employment is at an all-time high, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%.  So while there are still lots of folks at the border, and the Covid restriction that kept them from entering are soon going to be lifted – it’s not a “real” issue.

As part of the “backlash” against social progress, Republican state legislatures are passing a series of laws restricting what is taught in schools.  Teachers who try to explain why a child has two mothers could be sued in Florida.  The Republican talking point is that somehow those teachers are trying to “groom” children to be gay, or transgendered.  And a portion of their base believes it.

Real Issues

But what may be a game changing wedge issue is now in the hands of the US Supreme Court.  Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health is a Mississippi case which could overturn the national abortion ruling of Roe v Wade.  Mississippi would restrict almost all abortions to sixteen weeks or less.  Roe (and the following case, Casey) didn’t allow limits until twenty-four weeks.  If, as it seems likely, the Court overturns Roe, and allows states to create their own limits on abortion rights, it could be a huge wedge issue driving voters out to defend women’s rights, by voting for Democratic candidates.  That ruling is likely to come down in late May or early June.

But inflation could be the deciding issue of the 2022 election.  There are strong economic reasons why a post-pandemic economy would be inflationary.  Reasonably, both Democrats and Republicans tried to cushion the fall of the pandemic by spending money.  Now that money is “in the market”, and driving prices up.  There are even stronger reasons why the Russian sanctions could raise prices.  But, like the Carter Administration in 1980, the President (and party in office) during serious inflation will take the blame, regardless of who is at fault.  Joe Biden and the Democrats didn’t cause inflation, but Republicans will do all they can to hang it around his neck.

That may be the ultimate wedge.

Garland’s Dilemma

Insurrection

Attorney General Merrick Garland has a dilemma.  For many Americans, the events that transpired from election day on November 3rd 2020 through the January 6th 2021 Insurrection at the Capitol, are some of the darkest moments in US History.  But for many other Americans, those same events are seen in the exact opposite light.  They are convinced that the election was stolen, and they see those who fought to reject the results as heroic.

Not all of the 72 million Americans who voted for Donald Trump believe the election was stolen by Democrats.  Recent polling suggests that about thirty percent of all Americans think “Stop the Steal” was real (Politifact).  A quick “crunch” shows that around 40 million, more than half of the Trump voters,  think the election was stolen.

The Attorney General’s decision to pursue criminal charges should not be impacted by public polling.  What Americans believe should be irrelevant to the law, or decisions about enforcement. But Merrick Garland is no “blind justice” statue, balancing the scales of criminality without regard.  He is well aware: no matter what he does, indict Trump and his team members or not, a huge proportion of Americans are going to be outraged.  

Criminality

Last week, a Federal Judge in California ruled that Trump lawyer John Eastman could not use the “attorney-client confidentiality” privilege to withhold evidence of his interactions with  then-President Trump.  Judge David O. Carter ruled that the “crime/fraud” exception to confidentiality applied . He found that a preponderance of the evidence demonstrated that Donald Trump committed felony obstruction of Congress and conspired to defraud the United States (NYT).   

Congressman Mo Brooks stated that Trump was still attempting to overturn the election as late as September of 2021.  Ample evidence of disrupting the election process was also revealed by the January 6th Committee of the House of Representatives. Messages displayed the out-sized role that Senator Ted Cruz played.  Even Ginni Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, was actively involved in the planning.

The pressure is growing on the Attorney General to act.

Precedence

But there is a lot of momentum against indicting a former President.  First, never has the winner of the White House brought charges against the loser.  There is a “banana Republic” aspect to that:  the winner enters the Presidential Palace and the loser is soon in jail. That happens in the Caribbean and South and Central American countries.  It’s not “done” in the United States, no matter the possible transgressions.

And second, there is a tradition of protecting Presidential actions and privileges by the Department. That’s not surprising, the Department of Justice is part of the executive branch, and ultimately answers to the President.  The famous “memo” from Watergate days states that a serving President cannot even be indicted.  Perhaps the greatest example is when President Gerald Ford granted a blanket pardon to his predecessor, Richard Nixon, for any crimes he may have committed as President.  That decision generated a lot of outrage at the time, but in retrospect is seen as “good”, moving the country beyond Watergate.

Recent History

In fact, the most recent episode of “historic immunity” is part of the direct experience of the current Department of Justice leaders.  When Barack Obama took office in 2009, there was a lot of discussion about holding the Bush Administration accountable for the illegal rendition and torture of accused terrorists after the attacks on 9-11.  The Bush Justice Department itself issued an advisory approving “enhanced interrogation techniques”, torture by any other name, including waterboarding and prolonged nudity and “stress” positions.  

President Obama soon shot down attempts to hold the former executive legally responsible, but re-wrote the rules to prohibit further actions.  That “precedent” is deeply ingrained in today’s decision makers.

Balance the Scale

On the other hand, there are even more Americans who see a failure to prosecute the Trump leadership as dangerous.  In their view, the rules have NOT been rewritten.  Nothing has changed to protect the electoral process.  In fact, many states have written laws making it even more difficult to vote. They are “fixing” an election security problem that never existed in the first place.  

If the illegal actions of 2020 and 2021 remain unpunished,  they feel it encourages the same folks to try it again, even “better” in 2024. It’s not about the past, but what is being planned for the future.  Donald Trump himself continues to press the “Stop the Steal” story.  And belief that the election was stolen has become a litmus test for current Republicans seeking nomination for future office.

When President Biden appointed Federal Appellate Court Judge Merrick Garland to be Attorney General, his primary goal was to “de-politicize” the Department of Justice.  The Trump Attorney Generals, Sessions, Whittaker, and Barr; all bowed to the whims of the White House.  Barr blatantly pardoned Trump’s friends and prosecuted his enemies.  Not since the Nixon-Watergate era, had the President’s thumb been so heavily placed on the scale of justice.  

And everything about Trump and “Stop the Steal” is political, exactly where Merrick Garland does not want to go.  So it should be no surprise that he seems more than reluctant to enter the fray.

Justice and justice

But justice does need to be served.  In the Nixon pardon, it was clear to the vast majority of the nation that Nixon had “done wrong”, and was getting away with it.  But the vast majority also wanted to get past the two years of “all Watergate, all the time”.  The corruption, and the cure, were clear, whether Richard Nixon himself ever stood before the Bar or not.

The same cannot be said about Trump.  The era of “Stop the Steal” didn’t end on election night in November. Nor did it end on the Capitol steps in January.  In many ways, “Stop the Steal” is stronger now, with more widespread political support, than it had eighteen months ago.  Only Justice, and justice, can balance the scale and protect the American democracy.

Track Weather

It’s been a few weeks of “serious” essays on Sunday. But today, it’s back to the on going “Sunday Story” series.

Ohio

It’s March in Ohio.  Today we started the morning at twenty degrees.  Tomorrow we will end the day in the seventies.  What else is there to say?  I was a track athlete for six years, and a track coach for forty.  Even now in my “old age”, I’m still out on the track as a track official. (The scary part of that is I’m one of the “younger” officials!). 

So I still check the daily forecast, to see what is ahead for my day, or evening, out on the track.  Here’s some stories about Track and Field, Ohio, and the weather.

Princeton Relays

I ran for Wyoming High School in the north suburbs of Cincinnati, and one of the “huge” meets of the year was the Princeton Relays at nearby Princeton High School.  Wyoming was a smaller sized school, but at Princeton we were up against the biggest schools in the state.  So our little sprint squad was excited to get the chance to go against the best.

Excited, that is, until we woke up on that Saturday morning, scraped the ice off of our cars, and drove to catch the frozen bus in front of the school.  Just like this morning, it was in the twenties, but back in the 1970’s track meets were never cancelled except for lightning (and sometimes not even then).  So we went to the crowded Princeton campus, where dozens of teams were in little huddled refugee groups trying to keep warm.

The Wyoming sprint squad were no fools – we hid out in the heated restroom while we waited for our chance to hit the track.  Back then, there were no “high-tech” running tights or shirts to  maintain warmth.  We were track athletes in our track uniforms; thin blue nylon jerseys with a diagonal white stripe with “Wyoming” on it.  And thin-thin blue shorts, hitting somewhere around the upper thigh, barely covering what needed to be covered; though it was so cold it really didn’t matter.  

Frozen Radiator

I remember standing on the backstretch, the second man on the 880 relay, when I realized that my ¼ inch track spikes weren’t penetrating the “all-weather” track surface. It felt more like concrete than an expensive rubber-asphalt blend.  It was frozen, and so was I, and there seemed to be no way to warm-up enough to even find a normal stride length.  But that didn’t stop the gun from going off, or our lead-off runner from flying down the backstretch. 

I did my job, moving the baton around the turn and passing guys up the front stretch to deliver to our third man.  It was a solid exchange, keeping up our velocity, and he sped off around the curve.  We held our own against the “big guys”, not winning, but placing in the top six in the state-class meet.  Then it was back into the restroom to wait for the 440 relay. 

How cold was it?  When we got back to Wyoming High School, my car radiator was frozen. 

Return to Princeton 

When I was coaching in the 1980’s I took my Watkins High School teams back down to Princeton for a few years.  Watkins was a little bigger than Wyoming, but we still were up against “the big boys” when we showed up as unknowns at Princeton High School.  The first year we went, we won the slow heat of every sprint race, placing overall in the top three, but never getting to challenge the “big guys” in the fast heat.  The legendary coach of Cleveland John Adams, Claude Holland, found me on the backstretch towards the end of the meet, and gave me a word of advice.  “Coach, you’ve got a great little team, but you’ve got to learn to lie better!”  

He was right.  We were in the “slow” heats because I entered our relays in the times we had run, not what we “hoped” to do.  But since all of the other coaches were “enhancing” their entry times, we got left in the slow heats, unable to directly compete against the best.  I learned my lesson, thanks to Coach Holland, and realized that if you wanted to compete, you had to be part of the “liars’ club”. 

Road Trip

Our last year at Princeton was a “road trip”.  I took twenty-six kids, and put them all in my parents’ house in Wyoming the night before.  It was a giant sleepover, with kids sprawled out all over the recreation room floor (the seniors got the beds upstairs).  And the next morning we all got up for a light breakfast, and found four inches of snow on the ground.

We drove over to Princeton, and the competing school coaches walked around the track.  There weren’t lanes, or even a distinction between the track and the field – just snow.  One of us used that famous track line, “…sometimes we run in this, sometimes we don’t”, but the forecast was for several more inches, and we decided it was best to let this meet go.

I was still a young coach, and my next move was a bad decision.  We had twenty-six kids, now disappointed about the cancelled meet, but definitely all starving.  Bob Evans Restaurant was just down the street, so we decided to get breakfast before we started back up the road to home.

It snowed three more inches during the meal.  The two hour trip home took six, with almost zero visibility on I-71.  When we finally made it back to Watkins, we had to push the kids cars out of a foot of snow in the parking lot.  We were lucky to make it home, safely.  

That was Saturday.  Sunday, it started to warm up, and I was out shoveling the runways at the track.  We had a dual meet against nearby Granville on Tuesday. By then it was in the sixties. Welcome to Track in Ohio.

The Sunday Story Series

Zelenskyy’s Choice

Stalemate

Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t said a word.  But his Deputy Defense Minister re-wrote the history of their ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine.  He claimed that the Russian attacks were simply to preserve the “independent” sovereignty of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region, allowing them to break away.  It’s not where this invasion started, but it is a “fig-leaf” to cover the naked aggression of Putin, and more importantly, the abject failure of the “mighty” Russian Army to defeat the Ukrainians.  

So the Ukraine War has reached a bloody stalemate.  Russia is unable to capture Kyiv, or Kharkiv, or even Mariupol.  Their encircling movements are stymied by Ukrainian forces, and by Ukrainian civilians who simply won’t quit.  But those same civilians are bearing the brunt of the attack now.  Since the Russians can’t take the cities, they are sitting back and blowing the Hell out of them.  Stores, apartment blocks, neighborhoods, theatres, schools and hospitals are all “fair game” for the Russian artillery, missiles, and bombs.   

Negotiations

Ukrainian and Russian representatives are sitting across the table from each other in Istanbul.  President Erdogan of Turkey is hosting the talks, aimed at reaching some sort of agreement to end the bloodshed.  But there’s nothing collegial about the discussions.  The Russians and Ukrainians won’t shake hands, and the Ukrainians have been warned not to eat or drink or even touch the tables.  The fear of Russian poisoning is that strong.

And there’s a real possibility that the negotiations are just another Putin “fig leaf”, covering a needed regrouping and resupply of Russian columns.  Give it a few weeks, and a reinvigorated Russian Army may once again begin marching towards the city centers.  Maneuvering heavy equipment in the verdant fields of Ukraine in the spring mud has trapped too many armies of the past.  Time may be on Russia’s side.

 The Ukrainians are well aware of that possibility.  They too are regrouping and resupplying, trying to get as much military materiel from the NATO nations as possible in preparation for a second Russian offensive, especially as spring ends and the fields dry out.  

What Deal

Frankly, the less likely scenario is that the Russians are really at the table to negotiate, and that the Deputy Defense Minister is actually speaking for Vladimir Putin himself. But it’s possible. Perhaps Putin is looking for the “exit ramp” from his “adventure” in Ukraine, a way to staunch the Russian bleeding and death.  And more significantly for Putin, a way to maintain the sale of Russian natural gas and oil products to Europe, the last financial lifeline left for the Russian economy.

But if Russia is really looking to end the war, what would they be willing to take to declare victory and get out?  And just as importantly, after the amazing and gallant defense of his country, what is President Zelenskyy of Ukraine will to give?

The loss of Ukrainian provinces in the Donbas region, and the Russian “unification” of the Black Sea coastline (they already control most of it); with a Ukrainian promise not to join NATO, is likely the Russian “starting” position.  Essentially, it says to Zelenskyy:  give Russians what they already have, and promise not to make an alliance to defend yourself from them again.  Then the Russian forces will withdraw from the other parts of Ukraine.

What Ukraine Earned

It’s not a good result from an amazing Ukrainian defense.  But the internal pressure on President Zelenskyy must be intense.  Millions of Ukrainian citizens have fled the country.  Millions more are in the crosshairs of Russian weaponry.  More than a hundred thousand are trapped in Mariupol, starving in the basements and bomb shelters, with no way out of the destruction.  

So maybe Zelenskyy responds with an agreement not to join NATO, but retaining the ability to sign mutual defense pacts with the United States or Germany.  Ukraine may seek the economic protection of the European Union rather than the military defense of NATO.  And maybe there’s some arrangement for “autonomy” of the Donbas, short of independence.  Perhaps even some Russian reparations for the damage done in the cities.  After all, the Russian ruble is hardly worth the paper it’s printed on, there’s plenty to give away.

It’s not likely that any of this is important.  Odds are, Putin is simply buying some time to regroup.  His political position may depend on total victory in Ukraine, regardless of the cost in Russian blood and treasure.  But, if Putin is looking for the “off ramp”, it is really Zelenskyy’s choice what happens next.

Essays on the War in Ukraine

Out-Sourcing the Law

The Law

Our governments make laws.  It is a core function; making rules for how our society works.  My city of Pataskala just raised the speed limit on a Mink Street from 35 MPH to 45MPH (it’s about time).  The ordinance was passed, and the signs will be changed. Our local police department will enforce the new limits, just like they enforced the old ones.

Some laws, like the higher speed limit, are common sense.  There’s only a couple of houses in the area, otherwise it’s a “country road”.   Others are more politically contentious. Ohio just passed a law allowing any citizen (not under felony restriction) to carry a concealed weapon.  No license, no classes: head to the gun store (or Vance Outdoors) and plunk down your cash. Once you pass the instant background check, you’re “packing” a gun.  And if you do something illegal with that gun, the police and the courts will enforce those laws.

Enforcement

But there is a new legislative trend in the United States, that deals with some of the most fractious issues of our times.  The legislature passes a law, just like every other that regulates our behavior.  But rather than the government enforcing the law through police or civil fines, the enforcement is “outsourced”.  Instead of making violation a misdemeanor or felony, punishable by community control or fines or prison; these laws put the “violator” at risk for civil suit for any other citizen.  

So instead of facing a court to dispense criminal justice; some other citizen, who might not have any direct relation to what you did, is empowered to sue. An action violates the law; it is prima facie evidence of “guilt”.  The penalty is to lose the suit and pay “compensation” in the form of civil penalty and court fees; a cash amount, to the winner.

In this way the “state”, can pass a law and not be responsible for enforcing it.   The other “citizens” of the state, and even of other states, become the “enforcers” and the civil courts become the venue for dispensing punishment.  

Controversy without Consequences

Frankly, most of the laws using this novel concept of enforcement are coming from the conservative right.  The most familiar: the Texas law limiting abortions to six weeks, and the new Florida law banning any discussion of gender issues in primary classes.  But there are proposals in California to ban assault weapons using the same enforcement process, so it’s not all “one side” or the other.  

Today’s essay isn’t about the “Don’t Say Gay” law or why assault weapons should be banned.  It’s the process of enforcing these laws that gives me serious concerns.

Vigilante Justice

This concept creates a whole new level of vigilantism. It’s a governing state like the Soviet Union of old, when neighbors spied on their neighbors to find failures to live up to Communist ideals. And it begs for “organizations” to come in and profit by becoming the “enforcement agency”. Private businesses with the bankroll to file multiple suits, can sue and collect the “fees” from transgressors.  

It’s kind of like the companies that contract for red light camera enforcement.  They put up the cameras, they watch the videos, they send the tickets out and they take their cut of the fines.  But at least the tickets still went through the regular traffic court process, where drivers could dispute them.

In these “outsourced” laws, the government essentially washes their hands of the matter.  It becomes an issue for the civil courts, like a property dispute in the neighborhood.

Dodging the Fed

Some of the attraction for “civilian enforcement” is that it is more difficult for the Federal Courts to rule on their Constitutionality.   When “the government” enforces a law that violates a Constitutional right, there is a direct cause of action in the Federal Courts.  For example, when Ohio passed a “heartbeat bill” restricting abortions to before a fetal heartbeat could be detected, the Federal Courts immediately prevented enforcement.  But these “outsourced” laws are more difficult to bring to the Federal bar, since the state government is not involved in  “enforcement”.

There are other similar situations in the law today.  There is a group out of Wisconsin, the “Freedom from Religion Foundation”, that acts as an “enforcer” towards public schools that cross the First Amendment “religious line”.  A typical case, is one where the school allows the Ten Commandments to be displayed in the lobby of the high school, or where school authorities lead a prayer before graduation.  But there are a couple of critical differences between these “enforcement” activities, and “outsourced” laws.

First of all, the “Freedom from Religion Foundation” has to have a “client” with the legal standing to sue in that particular school district.  And, rather than sue for money, these suits are usually for “specific performance”: the school takes down the display or skips the prayer before the ceremony.  

Everyone has Standing

But the “outsourced” laws give EVERYONE standing to file suit.  A woman has an abortion after six weeks in Texas, everyone in the country has the “right” to sue.  A second grade teacher tries to explain why Bobby has a Mommy and Daddy, and Johnny has a Mommy and Mommy, and we all have “standing” in Florida court.  

It creates an “unlimited class” of folks with standing to sue, and a slam-dunk case to win.  It becomes “profitable” to become these “law enforcers”.  

It’s not what the American legal system is about.  Pitting citizen against citizen to do the job that the legislature is afraid to do (or to avoid Federal oversight) is just wrong.  It really doesn’t matter what issue were discussing, or which side you take.  If Florida really believes it should keep the teacher from talking to primary kids about “gender”, then the Florida legislature and Governor should enforce it themselves.  The same with Texas and abortions, and California and assault weapons.

We pass the buck enough.

The Gaffe

Biden’s Mouth

Joe Biden – he’s  legendary.  He’s been “gaffing”, saying surprising and sometimes extraordinary things in the middle of more “mundane” moments, for decades.  Up until this week, the most famous Biden gaffe was the “hot mic” whisper to then President Barack Obama at the passage of the Affordable Care Act: “This is a big f**king deal!!”.  And there’s even a “top ten” list of Biden’s gaffes, going back to 1987 (Time).

Some critics claim that it’s now some kind of dementia, a loss of control in the near-eighty year old man.  But the reality is, if this is dementia, then he’s been demented for the last half-century.  And supporters recognize that Biden has struggled with a stuttering disability throughout his life, and sometimes in that struggle – things slip out.  Maybe they’re right about “slips”, or maybe the gaffes are just a reflection of his inner thoughts.  

Truth Speaks

I think Biden is of sound mind, and knows full well what he’s saying.  He uses his “gaffes” to say the things he’s “not supposed to say”.  The Affordable Care Act was a “big f**king deal”.  So this weekend in a dramatic speech in Warsaw, the President laid out the case for world democracies to stand up to Russia.  He talked about the fate of the refugees now leaving Ukraine, and the terrible destruction of cities and civilians throughout that nation.  And Biden ended by saying about Vladimir Putin, “…for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power”.  

You could feel the oxygen get sucked out of  seventh floor of the US State Department headquarters in Foggy Bottom.  The President of the United States violated one of the premier rules of diplomacy:  never call for “regime change”.  And there are good reasons for that.  Once you say the “King must die”, then it’s going to be even harder to negotiate a peace with that “King” later on.  It’s the reason we didn’t bomb the Japanese Emperor’s Palace in World War II.  If we killed the Emperor, who would have the authority to surrender to us?  

Return to Normalcy

And the world (outside of Ukraine) looks to an end to the conflict, and a return to normalcy when Russia is among the “civilized” nations of the world.  Besides, Russian natural gas is a big part of the European economy.  How can we get back to normal if the leader of the free world, the President of the United States, calls for the removal of the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin?

The question Joe Biden poses is a simple one.  When a world leader starts a war of conquest that has sent ten million people from their homes, destroyed cities, and ultimately will cause the deaths of a hundred thousand people or more; how do we go “back to normal”?  What price is going to be paid for the war crimes of the Russian invasion, by the man who is directly responsible for those acts? 

Even if Putin  withdrew his tanks and stopped his bombings today, does the world go “back to normal” tomorrow?  I hope not, and I hope that world doesn’t think so either.  Joe Biden is speaking for us all when he says – “…this man cannot remain in power”.  

Consequences

This doesn’t mean we are sending a cruise missile to destroy the Kremlin.  And it doesn’t mean that the US President is calling for revolution in Russia.  But is does point out the obvious:  the world changed when the tanks went across the Ukrainian border and the first cruise missiles struck the Baba Yar Memorial in downtown Kyiv.  Being the leader of a major world power like Russia requires responsibility, and the actions that leader takes have consequences.  If the Russian people can’t hold Putin to account for those actions, then the rest of the world must.

We are already doing so.  The sanctions have wrecked the Russian economy.  The ruble was worth more than $.20 a few months ago, today it is worth less than a penny.  In the next several months, the last financial lifeline, the natural gas lines from Russia into Europe, will be replaced from US sources.  All of Russia will suffer for the singular decisions made by their authoritarian leader.

Responsibility

President Biden, in his Warsaw “gaffe”, has put the responsibility directly where it belongs.  Vladimir Putin directed this invasion, and bears complete responsibility for the results.  If he is not held personally liable, then, in the end, the world somehow white washes the destruction and the death.  

Biden spoke for every common man in the civilized world when he said that Putin cannot remain in power.  He told Putin that he cannot use the veneer of “diplomatic immunity” to commit war crimes.  And, in that brief phrase, he told the world that we cannot “go back to normal” just because the shooting stops in Ukraine.

And that’s no mistake, no gaffe.  It’s a big deal.

Ukraine Crisis

Putin’s Choice

Changing Strategy

The Associated Press reported this morning that Russia “may” change strategy in Ukraine. The month long invasion is stalled: the divisions surrounding Kyiv seem unable to close in on the city and are actually being pushed back from the northwestern suburbs. And while Russian long-range artillery, missiles and air attacks are still laying waste to civilian targets, killing thousands; Ukraine shows no signs of surrender. Even the hundred thousand starving in Mariupol refuse to give up.

The AP speculation comes from the Russian Defense Minister who changed “the message” from Moscow. Instead of “de-Nazifying” all of Ukraine, all of a sudden he speaks of “consolidating” the Eastern Provinces of Donbas as “independent” of Ukraine and continuing to control the critical naval bases in Crimea. In short, Russia is talking about keeping what they already had, before the tanks rolled across the borders and the missiles attacked civilian targets.

But one man speaking from Moscow is NOT a change in strategy, unless that one man is Vladimir Putin. So there’s nothing certain for Russian forces in Ukraine. What is certain: Ukrainian resistance has embarrassed the “second greatest” power in the world. They did not retreat, they did not fold, and the Russian Army is faced with many thousands of soldiers killed and wounded, for little gained.

Russian History

Those facts are not lost on Putin.  He has only to look back sixty years into Russian history to foresee his future.  In 1962, the Premier of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev, determined to counter US nuclear weapons in Turkey by placing Soviet missiles in Cuba.  The technical reason was a request for mutual defense from the Cuban government.  Cuban leader Fidel Castro was fresh off a US sponsored invasion at the Bay of Pigs, an attack that failed miserably and left the new Kennedy Administration looking incompetent and weak. 

Khrushchev followed up with massive military aid to Cuba, and secret development of missile launch sites on the Island.  American U-2 spy planes revealed those sites to the Kennedy government, and the young President was faced with a dilemma.  No US President could allow hostile nuclear weapons ninety miles off the coast.  But attacks on the missile sites were guaranteed to cause Soviet casualties, and could trigger a nuclear launch, and World War III.

Missile Crisis

The resulting confrontation is known as the Cuban Missile Crisis.  The world teetered on the brink of nuclear disaster, as US Naval ships and Soviet submarines were head-to-head in the Caribbean.  Premier Khrushchev realized he had “overreached”, and while the ultimate solution included removing the US missiles from Turkey, it was the public removal of the missile bases from Cuba that became the headlines.  The Soviets were defeated and worse, humiliated on the world stage.  Kennedy out-maneuvered the Soviet leader.

Both Kennedy and Khrushchev would be out of power within two years.  Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas in November of 1963.  His assassin had rumored connections to the Cuban government.  Khrushchev was removed from office at gunpoint by the senior Soviet leadership in October of 1964.  There were multiple reasons for the ouster, but his failure in the Cuban Missile Crisis loomed large.  He spent the remaining seven years of his life isolated in a country “dacha”, living on 400 Rubles a month ($1300). 

The Cost of Adventure

Putin is the authoritarian leader of Russia, just as Khrushchev was in 1962.  He led his nation into a military “adventure” in Ukraine that was only going to last a couple weeks.  Now more than a month later, that invasion cost thousands of Russian soldiers lives, the destruction of the Russian economy, and caused the re-vitalization of the NATO alliance against Russia.  At this point, Putin’s “adventure” has weakened Russia in almost every category. It’s become his Cuban Missile Crisis.

It is possible that Putin recognizes the position he is in, and will cut his losses in Ukraine.  But it is just as possible that he will “double-down” on his Ukrainian strategy.  NATO has made the boundaries fairly clear:  no chemical or nuclear weapons, no attacks outside of the boundaries of Ukraine – and NATO will not directly intervene.  And the current humiliation of the Russian military may not be something that Putin can “live” with – both in principle, and perhaps, in reality.  He may not have a political choice to withdraw.

Without a Fight

Is the Defense Minister’s message signaling a crack in Russian leadership?  Or is it just another feint, another layer of propaganda to cover the mass destruction of the civilian population of Ukraine?  And, if it’s a valid proposition, will President Zelenskyy of Ukraine accept the loss of the Donbas and Crimea as a price for peace?

Ukraine is winning against the Russian invasion, even though the price of victory is extremely high. Perhaps they too will “double-down”, and demand that the territories “detached” in 2014 return to Ukrainian control. It’s difficult to imagine that Putin could swallow such a political humiliation, or survive it.

His “dacha”, more of a palace, is located in Novorossiysk, on the Black Sea, just a few hundred miles from the battle lines today.  But it’s hard to see that the former KGB officer would accept involuntary retirement there without a fight.

Essay on the Ukraine Crisis

We Weren’t Looking

This Week

It was a busy week.  Putin’s War in Ukraine got uglier.  The Russian losses on the battlefield were paid for with Ukrainian civilian losses.  We watched cities like Mariupol leveled, blocks of apartments and office buildings literally nothing but rubble.  The Ukrainians continued their demands for more aid and more action from the NATO countries.  They earned the right to be heard with their successes on the ground, and their sacrifices in the cities.  And President Biden weighed how far the United States could go without triggering World War III, or whether, as President Zelenskyy stated, it’s already begun.

Back in Washington, the first Black woman was nominated to a seat in the United States Supreme Court.  The Senate Judiciary Committee held hearings with incredibly moving oratory about this moment in history.  But those hearings also demonstrated the depths some are willing to go to further their political careers, and the inherent racism that still exists.  Two steps forward – a Black woman on the Supreme Court.  One step back – the fact that she might have empathy for those who stand before the Court is explained as a failing, and reason why her nomination should be denied.

And finally, the United States lost a great patriot, a woman who stood against the growing Authoritarianism in the world.  Madeleine Albright broke the “glass ceiling” as the first woman to become US Secretary of State under President Clinton, and mentored an entire generation of American Foreign Service diplomats.  Her efforts to maintain democracy will be sorely missed.

So it was easy to miss two important advances in the investigation of the January 6th Insurrection. 

Ongoing Crime

The first was from a major figure in the actual rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol.  Congressman Mo Brooks of Alabama spoke at the rally. “Are you willing to do what it takes to fight for America!” Brooks yelled before telling rally attendees to “carry the message to Capitol Hill” and that “the fight begins today.”  He was so ready for a fight, he himself was wearing body armor.  His Congressional staff was part of the organizers of the January 6th events – ostensibly before the Insurrection itself.

Brooks did everything he could to overturn the 2020 results in the months after the election, and keep Trump in office.  Trump “returned the favor” by withdrawing his endorsement Brooks for the Senate seat from Alabama last week.  Brooks’ entire campaign was based around his MAGA connections and the Trump endorsement, so the flip-flop was a body blow.  

Brooks revealed why the endorsement was withdrawn.  In September of 2021, nine months after the inauguration of Joe Biden, Trump asked Brooks to have Congress “…overturn the (2020) election results and re-install Trump as President”.  Brooks told Trump there is no Constitutional method of doing that, once the Electoral votes were certified – but Trump demanded it anyway.  It was the cost of his endorsement.

The “bottom line” of this story:  Trump continues to try to overthrow the elected President of the United States.  It didn’t end on January 6th, or 20th – that sedition continues today.

The Justice’s Wife

Ginni Thomas has been a conservative activist for a quarter-century.  In the months after the 2020 election, she was active in the movement to overturn the election results.  She sent dozens of text messages to Trump’s Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, suggesting ways to continue the “battle” to maintain Trump in office.  Thomas completely “bought in” to the “Stop the Steal” theories put forth by Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell.  She was constantly sending advice and support to Meadows, declaring that Meadows should “…do anything to overturn the election”.  

Her husband is the Senior Justice of the United States Supreme Court, Clarence Thomas.  In spite of his wife’s deep involvement in the events of January 6th (she was in attendance at the rally, though she says she did not go to the Capitol), Thomas was the sole dissenting vote on the January 6th Committee’s attempt to get documents for their investigation.  There are no set rules requiring Justices of the Supreme Court to recuse themselves from cases where they have personal involvement, each Justice decides for themselves.  But it would seem that Ginni Thomas’s intimate participation would require him to withdraw.  He did not.

Not only does this raise questions about Justice Thomas’s ethic, but it also demonstrates how deeply the “Stop the Steal” movement was inculcated in the Republican and conservative leadership.  The January 6th Committee is preparing for public hearings, to lay out the evidence they have found of the planning and execution of the Insurrection.  It will be difficult to find a time when the events of the world won’t overwhelm their message.  

But we still need to listen.  For some, the Insurrection isn’t over.

Dear Judge Jackson:

Congratulations on your nomination to become a Justice of the United States Supreme Court.  There is no higher honor our nation can bestow on an attorney and judge.  And there is no one more deserving of that honor than you.  I cannot say it better than Senator Booker did yesterday; you have earned this appointment in every single way. (Readers:  if you want to be uplifted – take the time to watch Senator Booker’s statement to Judge Jackson). I am so proud that I live in a nation that in my lifetime has come so far, from Jim Crow Laws to the nomination of a Black woman to the Supreme Court.  We are, in Madison’s words, becoming “more perfect”. 

And I guess it should come as no surprise that that “perfecting” process generates opposition and even hate. We saw it in sports, from Jesse Owens to Jackie Robinson, Mohammad Ali to Hank Aaron. As each changed the world for the better, they were confronted by hate along the way.  They were transformative figures in American history.  So are you.

What really bothers me though, is the “jack-assery”, as Republican Senator Ben Sasse put it.  There are several Senators who have tried to make your nomination hearing a stage for their political future, or use it for retribution for perceived “wrongs” of the Trump years.  In doing so they had to search for some “flaws” to attack.  They tried to make it sound like you don’t “care” about child pornography, as if they were against it but you were somehow in favor.  Of course, that’s not true. You handled their blatant grandstanding with poise and grace and patience beyond belief. 

I don’t speak for the “American people”, I just speak for this one citizen.  But as a citizen of the United States, I apologize.  What should be a legitimate exploration of legal views, became a spectacle for political gain. I am embarrassed for our country that you (and we) were put through that “jack-assery”.  And even in that, I am also so proud of your courage to sit through it all.  A lesser person would have “taken the bait” and tried to lash back.

I’m sure you look forward to the end of the hearing process.  I am excited to see your hand raised, swearing once again to “…support and defend the Constitution”, and to “…administer justice without respect to persons, and do equal right to the poor and rich…”.  And even more, I look forward to seeing your work on the Court, in the majority and minority.  Your opinions will add a whole new texture to the American legal process.

Recently there have been times when it was easy to not love America.  But you:  your career, your legal acumen, and your potential to add to our Nation’s History; reaffirms our reason to love America.  Thank you for your service, and congratulations again.