Americans United
Here’s one you haven’t heard for a while – the vast majority of Americans are in favor of supporting Ukraine in their fight against the Russian invaders. Eighty-three percent say they favor sanctions (CNN). I’m not sure the “vast majority” of Americans have all been in favor of the same thing since – I don’t know, maybe sometime right after 9-11.
There are extremists on both sides still. After all, we are America in the 21st Century. On one extreme, you hear those that say this is really an “internal” Russian problem, one that we can certainly deplore, but shouldn’t act on. This, by the way, is also the stance of the China’s President Xi.
On the other side are the Americans, motivated by the incredible courage demonstrated by President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people, who want to launch direct attacks on the invading Russians. That forty mile column of troops, trucks, and supplies stalled outside Kyiv provides a “fat” target. They can envision the US Air Force A-10 Warthogs ranging up and down the column, expending every weapon and leaving a scene like the road out of Kuwait in the first Iraq War.
Playing Poker
That’s a tempting strategy. We could follow it, what used to be called “The John Wayne” school of diplomacy. The US can be the Cavalry coming over the hill, saving the noble Ukrainian citizens from the cruel invader. It would “call” Putin’s bluff; we would force him to deal with the full force of American might.
To further that poker analogy, Putin might do the “reasonable” thing, and fold his hand, going to the negotiating table to try to save face. If that happened, the US would be the hero of the world. Or, as we watch on all those World Poker Tournaments on late-night TV, Putin might go “All-in”. In historic terms, that’s called World War III, with nuclear as well as conventional weapons “on the table”.
The US has already drawn the “line in the sand” for Putin. It’s at the border of the NATO countries, and we’ve not only promised to go “John Wayne” if he crosses that line – we’ve put US troops in the way. So before we leave the table, remember that what’s happening in Ukraine is really only the first round.
On the Margin
Most reasonable people are not ready to go “John Wayne” yet. We are willing to impose massive economic sanctions on Russia, shutting off their banks and oligarchs from the wealth they’ve accumulated in the thirty years since the fall of the Communist regime. We are hoping that by squeezing Russia’s economy, the pressure from the citizens and from those oligarchs will force a stand-down from the current Russian strategy; an all-out destruction of the cities and people of Ukraine.
Politicians in the United States are trying to find a way to “play the margin” of the Ukraine crisis. Since the majority of both political parties favor supporting Ukraine, they all have to fall generally in line with the Biden Administration actions. Even Fox News can only complain that “…Zelenskyy moves the world to tears, while Biden gets tepid reviews,” (Fox). So they complain that the sanctions aren’t “tough enough”. The margin they’ve found, is that the United States, the current world leader in petroleum production, still imports millions of barrels of Russian oil.
Russian Oil
To be clear, the US government isn’t buying Russian oil, but US companies are. They do it because it’s cheaper than trying to ship US oil from where most of it is in Texas and Oklahoma to the coasts. So, the “margin” narrative goes, it’s the Democrats fault, because Democrats are against pipelines, and pipelines could move that oil, and that’s why we have 7% of US oil imports coming from Russia (WSJ).
The response falls right into the Republican talking point – these “tree-hugging, AOC climate change believers” have stopped the US from producing more oil and gas, and that’s why we have to take Russian oil. There’s some truth to that, but the reality is that it’s cheaper to import Russian oil for what US companies use it for, than to move American oil to the coasts. Could we use other oil? Absolutely, but there’s a cost. And that cost will be at the local gas pump, with higher gas prices.
And that becomes the Republican battle cry, “Higher Gas Prices because climate-changers are in charge!!!!”
In the Game
The Biden Administration has a crisis in Ukraine. But they are also aware that there is a much longer term crisis in the environment, that isn’t going away because Vladimir Putin has lost his mind. So they will hold their ground, and not spend valuable American dollars building more petroleum facilities, when those dollars can be spent for future renewable energy resources. It’s likely that Biden will order a ban on Russian oil, and gas prices will go up. Biden will release more oil from the US strategic reserves to blunt the pain, but in the final analysis, Americans will have to answer a question.
Do you want to support the Ukrainian people?
Then here’s where you get to “ante up”.
Essays on the Ukraine Crisis
- Ante Up – 3/3/22
- State of the Union 3/2/22
- The Guns of March 3/1/22
- Sanctions 2/26/22
- What Happens Next 2/24/22
- The Games Begin 2/22/22
- Talking with a Friend 2/18/22
- Trip Wire 2/2/22
- On the Brink 1/23/22
- The Ukrainian Dilemma 12/5/19
This is “Wag The Dog” to the max.
Of course CNN has a poll that says 83 percent of people are for sanctions. They need to speak for themselves.
And how about Lindsey Graham getting on live TV and saying the Russian people should assassinate Putin? Wow.
I think the media is running with this to cover up from all the covid crimes against all of humanity that they have committed.
As far as the war goes, it’s weird that we’re only seeing the Ukrainian’s side of the story. I’m not saying the Russians are good by any means, but I do think we need to stay out of it.
It’s a Slavic Civil War. Sure, the worry is “he won’t stop at Ukraine.” But is this confirmed?
I’ve been following this since day one. I have live feeds of Kyiv that I’ve been following the whole time. Russian troops and convoys are in the process of surrounding the city from all sides. There’s about to be a battle of the ages that has resulted from this WWII style invasion. Not good. You can watch it live stream on YouTube. That’s the world we live in today. Crazy I know. I actually watched Russian troops take down a camera on live feed. It’s crazy. They let people live stream a war but your not aloud to challenge the covid narrative or your blocked or censored. Simply amazing.
Anyway, my point is, we need to stay the hell out of it. It’s like two pit bulls fighting. Who wants to stick their hand in that and try to break it up? So far, calling for assassinations of Putin and pressing all of these sanctions on them probably is going to do the opposite of them backing off. They’re going to double down.
Just kind of crazy. This isn’t Iraq, Syria, North Korea, or Vietnam. This is Russia. Just need to be more cautious that’s all or all hell is going to break loose on the entire planet.
Oh and last thought….. where’s covid? Weird. Haven’t heard a word about it in over two weeks…
Brandon – sorry it took so long to respond to your comments. Putin has made it clear over the past several years that his goal is reinstating the entire Russian Empire (Soviet Union). That puts Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia on the “block”, as well as Eastern Europe. While I agree that the US can’t directly get our military involved in Ukraine – we have direct obligations to all of the next “targets” and we need to make it clear what our reactions to that will be.
I also think the Ukraine has “earned” a lot of respect for their resistance. I think most Americans thought this would be an Afghanistan “fold and run”. Put the Ukrainian people are putting up a helluva fight – and Zelenskyy has proven he is a true leader, not just one “from TV”. It sure makes you (us) want to help – even if there’s little we can directly do.
As far as Covid – from where I stand gov’t is doing just what it’s supposed to do – following the science. Omicron burned through and burned out – the numbers dropped – and the need for masks is over – FOR NOW. The next variant might require them again – but for now – we are where we were last May. We’ll see what happens next. I do think that the test and treat at the Drug Store – take a test – if it’s positive – here’s the Pfizer “pills” to treat Covid – will change our entire outlook on the disease. (I bet we don’t agree – but that’s what I think).
And I watched that SOTU… “Go get ‘em!”….
Good grief… He’s like a little kid. What have we done?
He’s sending America out to change our world – I don’t have a problem with it.
Also I don’t know if you heard but supposedly this first round of Russian forces in there are mostly Pro-Russian Ukrainian Rebels using old burnt out Soviet equipment. Supposedly those tanks and trucks are so old that the tires are busting and causing stand stills in the convoys. The soldiers that are surrendering and saying they were “duped” into war are mostly the young Ukrainian pro-Russian rebels.
My point is, this is just the first waive. This is Putins JV squad in other words is what I’m getting.
I’m sure main stream has covered this some what.
Not trying to shoot shots or bombard you here. This is just crazy, bazaar, and interesting at the same. This is just going to get crazier.
I haven’t heard that – though I suspect that on the Eastern Front of Ukraine a lot of the front line troops were the “rebels”. But the troops around Kyiv were regular Army, as were the ones coming out of Crimea. It looks to me like the vaunted Russian “varsity” just wasn’t prepared for resistance. Their quick strike – knock off Kyiv and Zelenskyy strategy didn’t count on resistance. Putin thought Ukraine would fold like the resistance to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Instead they got held up – by old men in cars, and their young draftees in tanks be unwilling to run over human bodies.
But that won’t last too much longer. There’s always more Russian troops – and they’ll be motivated to do whatever is necessary to get the “job” done. So while the first week looked like “JV” – the “second half” is going to look a lot different – and uglier.
That’s wild. Quite courageous of the Ukrainians and Zelinskyy. I thought they’d get him by now too but he’s still at it.
It’s crazy because they’re using the old Soviet war tactics. Just ruthless and total disregard for human life on both sides. 27,000,000 Soviet casualties in WWII. Hopefully as this escalates we don’t have to look at similar numbers from around the world.
This is not good.
And no worries on response time Dahlman. I hope you’re doing okay.