War in Iran
On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran. Wednesday, June 17th, 2026, President Donald Trump agreed to a “Memorandum of Understanding”. That agreement calls for hostilities to end by all parties, while a further treaty is negotiated over the next sixty days. But the “Memorandum” does more than just create another ceasefire. It also creates the foundation for an ultimate resolution of the conflict.
It’s been one hundred and thirteen days of war. We have some idea of what the US casualties were: 13 Americans dead, and 381 wounded. But US actions (along with our ally Israel and Iran’s responses) have killed over 7500 and injured over 40,000, mostly civilians caught in the crossfire of battle (Al Jazzira).
Economic Consequences
And as with any war, there were economic consequences. The United States spent at least $150 Billion. It’s the cost of moving assets into and out of the region, keeping fleets of ships on station, and the enormous numbers of weapons used (and aircraft lost) in the battle. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz created worldwide economic impact. It dramatically escalated the cost of oil and all petroleum products. It’s not just the price of gasoline, but also fertilizer that has gone through the roof. The world supply of glycol, a key component of plastics, is limited as well.
But wars aren’t fought to see who would spend the most. They “winners” get what they want, the “losers” give up more than they got. The war was started by the United States, as we now know, at the behest of Israel. The question is, who won?
Failed Revolution
Clearly, the attacks on Iran did a significant amount of damage. There is no replacing those killed in the “decapitation” strikes on Iranian leadership. Instead, the replacements now in control of Iran seem to be even more entrenched in maintaining the theocratic autocracy that the US hoped to topple. Their leader, the Ayatollah, was killed. But his son, the new Ayatollah, is even more rigid than the father. The budding internal revolution in Iran was snuffed out, in part by the work of the Republican Guard, and in part by the looming presence of the greater enemy, the US and Israel.
So there is no hope for a “moderate state” takeover of Iran. That’s one failed US goal of the war.
Unclear Nuclear
Almost a year ago, in June of 2025, the United States (again, along with Israel) launched a major attack against the Iranian nuclear development program. We dropped some of the biggest non-nuclear bombs in existence, attempting to destroy the Iranian enrichment facilities. Americans heard about the complexity of the operation, flying B-2 Stealth Bombers from Whitman Air Force Base in Missouri, 7000 miles one-way to Iran (Nuts and Bolts).
Iran’s enriched uranium supply probably wasn’t “totally destroyed” as the Trump Administration then claimed. But a whole lot of it was buried hundreds of feet underground.
The number one expressed goal of the US in this current war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. That is clearly written in the Memorandum. But, as President Obama discovered in the two-year negotiations for the original nuclear limitation agreement, the JCPOA, the devil is truly in the details. President Trump and Vice President Vance assure America they can get a “deal” done in sixty days.
The jury is still out on this goal.
Choked Economic Life
An unintended consequence of the Iran War was the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, throttling the economic life of the entire world. Before the war, the Strait was “international waters”, with free passage for commerce. During the hostilities, Iran managed to close the strait, in spite of the presence of the largest US Naval fleet assembled in history, and the destruction of most of Iran’s surface fleet. Cheap drones, simple mines, and suicide speed boats can’t sink Naval ships, but can wreak havoc on the tankers and container ships trying to transit the Strait.
The memorandum implies that after sixty days, Iran will have a continuing administrative and financial stake in the controlling the Strait. Before the war: open waters. Now, and perhaps from here on, Iran will “get a cut” of every ship passing through, millions of dollars in fees.
Iran wins that unexpected consequence of US actions.
Cash, Cash, Cash
And finally there’s the “bottom line” for Iran, money. As Vice President Vance noted, Iran’s “Achilles Heel” is the weakness of their economy. Certainly the destruction wreaked by the US bombings made things even worse. But part of the Memorandum is that the United States will pay for damages, what in other eras would be called reparations. The US is offering billions of dollars to “rebuild Iran”. A couple of months ago, I wrote an essay about a book called The Mouse that Roared. It was about a mythical tiny country that invades the US in hopes of losing and getting economic help.
Iran must have read the book. Trump is offering more money to Iran than the JPCOA promised. And, unlike the Obama plan, the Memorandum offers continuing Iranian income, both at the Strait, and also with lifted sanctions on Iranian oil. After all, Trump needs to do something (anything) to restore the world’s oil supply. As the President said, he doesn’t want to be another “Herbert Hoover” whose actions helped start the worldwide Great Depression of the 1930’s.
Score another for Iran, the Ayatollah, and the Republican Guard.
So, Iran has suffered enormous damage. Their first and second levels of leadership were killed. Their economy is in deep trouble. And they remain in conflict with the largest military power ever in the history of the world.
And yet, so far, they seem to be the winners. “Do you believe in miracles?”
I’m sure, so far, the Iranian leaders do.
