Negotiate from Strength
“Going to China” is a phrase from American history (and from the movie, Star Trek VI). Ok, the Star Trek quote was actually by Spock, who said, “Only Nixon could go to China”. It meant that only President Nixon, a hardline anti-communist (who triggered the “kitchen debate” with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev at a 1950’s kitchen show) had the political “chops” to visit the Communist People’s Republic. And only Admiral James T Kirk, the renowned warrior against the Klingon Empire, could open negotiations with the United Federation of Planets’ arch-rival.
Donald Trump is neither Richard Nixon, nor James T Kirk. The latter two were opening negotiations from strength. And Trump might have been in that position, a couple of months ago, before his “war of choice” in Iran.
But now the United States is caught in a stalemate, an asymmetric standoff with a “lesser” military power in Iran. We have “all the cards” when it comes to bombs and weapons. But Iran is willing to accept incredible levels of punishment, and still disrupt the world’s economy by holding the Straits of Hormuz. That’s something they haven’t done before; a direct reaction to the US/Israeli attacks on their nation.
Hat in Hand
So Trump goes to China without a victory in Iran. In fact, he goes as a man desperate to find a solution to the problem he created. The entire world is looking for the United States to end the economic crisis originating in the Persian Gulf, and, so far, the United States hasn’t delivered.
What can China do? They are a major supplier of weapons to Iran, and a major consumer of oil that comes through the Straits. So they have an interest in gaining a settlement in the Middle East, and some influence over the remaining hardline generals in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, now in charge of the Iranian government.
So now the author of the “Art of the Deal” is in China, needing some deal “magic” to end the new quagmire in Iran. What does Trump have to offer?
Taiwan and Chips
The primary long-term goal of China is to gain control of the island nation of Taiwan. The United States has, since 1949, defended the right of Taiwan to be a Chinese nation independent of the People’s Republic. Taiwan is armed with US made F-16 fighters, US made M1-A2 Abrams battle tanks, and US made Patriot missile defense systems. The great Taiwanese fear is that their protection will be compromised by some bargain Trump might make with President Xi of the People’s Republic. Trump has already said he will discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with the Communist Chinese leader.
And China wants access to the most advanced computer chips (ironically, mostly produced in Taiwan). The US has blocked that access, unwilling to give the Chinese military the ability to match US systems. So there’s another bargaining “chip” that could “hit the table”. (And, as President Biden realized, the production of these kind of chips inside the United States should be a major US priority. Biden began that process with the “Chips Act” passed by Congress).
Trade and Manufacturing
Besides pressure on Iran, Trump wants more trade with China. One of the main products the US used to sell to China was soybeans. But the Trump tariffs put an end to that trade, and China turned to other sources throughout the world. That’s caused many Midwest farmers (mostly Trump supporters) to face severe financial strain and even bankruptcy.
And, it’s expected that the US President will try to make a deal to bring more Chinese manufacturing to the United States. This will create an odd conflict here at home. MAGA has been the leader against Chinese based industries in the United States, particularly when it comes to solar energy development. Even here in Pataskala, there was a MAGA outcry when a partly Chinese owned company opened up a solar panel factory just down the road. We saw Facebook memes of Mao Zedong and saw the immortal phrase, “Chinese Communists in Pataskala!!!”.
Desperate Times
Another watch-phrase: “desperate times call for desperate solutions”. The US President is desperate to end Iran. After all, it’s interfering with the Ballroom development! Will Trump throw Taiwan “under the bus”? Will he re-open trade with the Chinese Communist manufacturing behemoth? And will he let China have the most advanced computer chips in the world?
Trump’s plane just touched down in China. The President passed the first test: he made it down the “big stairs” from Air Force One without incident. Let’s hope that’s not the only success he has in the next forty-eight hours. And, let’s hope that he doesn’t give away our allies to end his war in Iran.
