Pax Americana
At the end of World War II, American leaders realized several things. First, the nature of warfare was unalterably changed by the creation of nuclear weapons. In the future, no “World War” in the nature of the First or Second, could be fought. At the end of such a war, no country would accept ultimate defeat without using their nuclear weapons. And as nuclear weapons developed even far beyond the “Manhattan Project” model, it became clear that another World War would destroy the world as we know it.
Second, American leaders recognized that big wars come from little wars. World War I began with a crisis between Serbia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. World War II could have been prevented with an enforcement of the Treaty of Versailles in the early 1930’s or at the Munich Pact. None of the World War I “winning” countries including the United States, were willing to make that commitment. When it became clear that Nazism was the world threat, it was also too late to easily defeat it.
So America reversed course from its post-World War I isolationism, when the US refused to enter the League of Nations. Instead, the US proposed the United Nations, headquartered in New York City. The ultimate goal of the UN was to contain the small conflicts that could develop into worldwide issues in a nuclear world.
Balanced Alliances
And third, the United States recognized that the post-World War II rival was the Soviet Union. We fought together with them against Fascism in the war, with American and Soviet troops locking arms at the Elbe River. What they didn’t realize at the time was that river would become the dividing point between Allied backed West Germany, and Soviet backed East Germany.
So the United States organized a military treaty alliance to offset the Soviet bloc of countries. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) surrounded the Soviet borders from the Arctic all the way to its Southern Border with Turkey. The Soviets responded with the Warsaw Bloc, the countries they occupied and controlled after the war.
Those institutions, the United Nations and NATO, outlasted the Soviet Union. The Cold War era ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union on Christmas of 1991. Some of the analysts of the 1990’s saw an opportunity to tap into the vast wealth of Russia (the successor state to the USSR), especially with the literal “fire sale” of the former Communist industrial assets. What they didn’t plan on, is that Russia would “come back”; no longer Communist, but with a more “traditional” authoritarian regime under Vladimir Putin.
In the final analysis, the Cold War enemies, Soviets and Communist China, remain the biggest threat to a stable world (stable = without war). And the institutions set up to contend with them in the 1940’s still have relevance today. And that’s why the American military “adventure” in Iran is so troubling.
Empires
The world today is facing a Russia bent on re-establishing empire. The war in Ukraine continues to drag on, and, in Cold War tradition, NATO and the US are providing the weapons and other materials to wage war against Russia. It’s fought with Western materials, and Ukrainian blood.
And China made it clear that their goal is the “reintegrate” (read conquer) Taiwan. Not only should the US see the obvious moral imperative: Taiwan has a Constitutional Democracy, China is a Communist dictatorship. But there are huge economic consequences. Taiwan is the global center (90%) for the manufacture of computer chips. So in a “short-term” world, China gaining control of the world supply of computer chips puts them in charge.
But the United States has made a huge military commitment to the Middle East. Here’s some simple “military math”. The US has eleven aircraft carrier groups, the key method used to project US power across the world. Four of those groups are in a maintenance cycle right now, and unavailable for use. Three are now stationed (or moving to) the seas around Iran. That leaves only four groups left to “patrol” the world, including the areas between China and Taiwan.
On Excursion
And the United States depleted its stores of weapons in Iran. The Defense Department is facing shortages of “high-end” missiles, like the ACACMS and THADD interceptors and Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles. The US is even threatening to “strip” current NATO allies of weapons supplies. Some of those were already committed to Ukraine, others are in reserve should Russia decides to expand their war.
In short, the American “excursion” to Iran bares other areas to possible attack. Russia, until now bogged down in Ukraine in World War I type trench warfare dominated by drone attacks, now sees openings not only there, but in Eastern Europe. And China can hear the “sucking sound” of American military might being pulled to the Arabian Sea. Now what prevents them from making a military move on Taiwan?
Meanwhile, the President of the United States threaten to withdraw from NATO, because the alliance isn’t following the US in this Middle Eastern “excursion”. No one asked the other NATO nations for support before the bombs were dropped. The NATO alliance Article Five (an attack on one NATO nation is considered an attack on all NATO nations) does not apply to wars of singular aggression. But last night, Trump intimated that the US might soon “declare victory” and leave, without opening the Straits of Hormuz to world old production. As Trump said, the US has plenty of oil. (Now even more as the price of gas edges over four dollars a gallon). We don’t need the 20% of world supply coming through the Straits, so, “It’s not our problem”.
The Price
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State Colin Powell used to say that the world works with the “Pottery Barn” rule: “You break it, you own it”. Donald Trump has taken America to war in Iran. The damage to the world economy is becoming more apparent, not just to Nations, but to everyday folks stopping at the BP station to fill up their tank. Trump “broke it”, when it comes to Iran, and the Straits of Hormuz, and NATO. His speech last night gave no clue about whether he’ll “own it”. Actually, he suggested that he might do what he did throughout his career as a businessman: make a deal, get the service, then not pay the bill.
The real price of US actions may be a change in the world’s power structure, a change that doesn’t favor democracy, or the United States of America. Like it or not, Trump owns that.
