Sunshine

Looking out my window this morning, it’s a beautiful day.  We had a frost warning last night, it one of those May’s that I hated as a track coach.  But hopefully last night was the last cold night, it’s going up to the sixties today and the seventies later this week.  Maybe April is done now that we’ve reached the middle of May.

Funny that somehow “stay at home” isn’t stay “indoors”.  It’s not the outside air that’s a risk, nor the cool green grass.  It’s people that represent a danger, and it’s me that represents a risk to them.  That concept is so much harder than just “hide inside”.

Empty Schools

May is always a busy month in public education.  Kids are finishing up school, teams are finishing up the season, and seniors are graduating.  But it’s a very different world this year.  Kids are still finishing up school, but it’s a cold distant school, reached through a screen and a keyboard.  No one is getting hugs on the last day, pitching notebooks into the school trash on the way out the door.  It’s just a final sign-off, a last Zoom or video.  

I’m not coaching, but if I were this would be an awful, empty year.  Staying close to home I don’t notice it that much, but when I got out, drove by the high school track, I felt the ache of loss that those kids are feeling.  It’s gone, something that can never be made up.  As a coach I always stopped the kids from talking about “next year”.  I’d tell them:  “…There’s no guarantee of next year, no contract with the future that your body and your plans will come true.  Don’t depend on that; go for your goals now”.  I never thought about this scenario though, not for a whole team, a whole class, a whole world.

Here in Pataskala, the adults are doing their best to make graduation something special. There is no way to replace the camaraderie, sitting by your friends through the ritual of the ceremony. This year, they can’t sit by their friends. Some schools fixed on “crossing the stage”, the line used by administrators to push marginal seniors to graduate. But crossing an empty stage, in an empty room, and picking up a loan diploma seems to only emphasize all that’s missing.

New Rituals

But here, the school leaders have taken a different approach.  Graduation day is Saturday May 23^rd.  Thirty school buses will head out, each with a driver, an administrator, and a parade of teachers’ cars behind it.  A bus will go to each of the three hundred senior’s homes and pull up.  The administrator will come out and award a diploma to the appropriately capped and gowned student.  Family, masked and distanced, will get the chance to watch.  Pictures will be taken beside the bus.  As one parent described it, “…we put a kindergartner on a bus in front of our house thirteen years ago, now the bus delivers our graduate back to us”.

The emphasis is on the graduate, not the empty room and stage.  There was some controversy when this was first announced, along with the final statement that there wouldn’t be a traditional graduation.  Some folks lashed out on social media, attacking the school leaders for “letting the kids down”.  But once that first wave of frustration washed through, most of the community got behind the plan.  

The Finish Line

The seniors picked up their caps and gowns at the high school; spaced carefully to keep from any unacceptable gathering.  The Cross Country coaches, good friends of mine, arranged for a special tribute.  A new finish line “arch” was specially ordered.  It’s large enough to drive through, and the seniors literally got to cruise through “the finish” of their high school career.

Twenty-two years from now, will the then-forty year old graduates look back with regrets at the ceremonies they missed?  Of course they will.  But will they also look back at a school and a community that did everything they could to make their “finish” special and unique?  I think so.  

Our COVID world is one full of “no’s”.  NO graduation, NO Fourth of July fireworks, NO swimming pools in the summer, NO concerts or ballgames or track meets.  In our world of “NO”, it’s good that some are making it better; making it special even if it’s very different.  Here in Pataskala, there is at least one “yes”.  The bus will pull up out front, and three hundred kids will graduate, one-by-one.  That’s a big “YES” for them.

Mission Accomplished

It was May 1^st, 2003.  President George W. Bush, a veteran jet pilot in the Vietnam era Air National Guard, landed in an anti-submarine aircraft on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.  He wasn’t piloting, but he was in a flight suit.  It was scene reminiscent of the 1996 film Independence Day, when that President flew a fighter aircraft attacking the alien invaders.  The cameras “ate up” President Bush, surrounded by flight crews, a natural presence in the military world after 9-11.

Bush later gave a speech about the success of American operations in Iraq.  A banner flew from the bridge of the Lincoln, “Mission Accomplished”.  However, the war in Iraq, the mission supposedly accomplished, would last for another seven years.  Bush never lived down the moniker of “Mission Accomplished” for a war that seemed to have no end.

President Trump gave another public press conference yesterday.  The President, whose attitude against testing for the COVID-19 virus delayed action for months, now surrounded himself with the latest testing equipment.  He lauded the fact that the United States now had tested more people than any nation in the world, perhaps even many of them combined.  Banners were mounted on the White House, “US Number One in Testing”.

The Buck Stops There

Harry Truman had a sign too:  “the buck stops here”.  Donald Trump, in this most important crisis of his Presidency, has spent much time and effort making sure that “the buck” stops almost anywhere else, mostly with the state Governors.  He hid behind a façade of  “Federalism” to avoid demanding that states “close” their economies and “shelter in place”.  It was up to governors to decide.  Some closed their states, Republican and Democrats alike. Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois and New York, California and Washington are examples of that. And it was other governors, in Florida and Georgia, Texas and South Dakota, who placed their states in greater jeopardy by refusing to take a stand.

Transition to Greatness

But the one person who dodged “the buck” was Donald Trump.  And it is Donald Trump who now is pressing the “good” governors of both parties, to open their states, ready or not.  Trump didn’t want to close anything, and he won’t “order” anything opened either.  But he’ll make sure the “COVID protestors” feel supported, and he’s pressing business to open.  He claims we are making a “transition to greatness” in reference to his old MAGA slogan, and demands that it’s time to open up.  In reality, the phrase “It’s the economy stupid” is the mantra of the Trump Campaign:  if he can’t make the economy trend upward by Labor Day, he doesn’t think he can be re-elected.  HE needs the economy to re-open, virus ready or not.

To force a re-opening, he’s only supporting plans to finance Americans who are working.  They “one-time IRS payment” of $1200 is long spent by those who lost their jobs.  It’s absolutely a class divide:  if you have the “right” jobs, you can stay at home and work safely from the couch in the living room.  If you have the “essential” jobs, you go out in the world and risk contact with the virus.  And if you have a job where you are at risk, and don’t want to get sick, then you choose:  got to work and get sick, or stay home without pay. 

And for the over 33 million Americans who’ve lost their jobs, the President’s payroll tax cut won’t do them a damn bit of good.  To point out the obvious, payroll tax cuts only help those on a payroll.  Trump is saying to workers the same thing he said to the meat packers:  take the risk and keep your job, don’t take the risk and starve.  

We Have Prevailed

“We Have Prevailed”:  Trump in the press conference floated his newest campaign slogan.  Don’t be surprised to see it echoed over and over in social media,  “We Have Prevailed” over the corona-virus, and “we have prevailed” over those who know that opening the economy will create an unacceptable loss of life.  Even the so-called Presidential plan to re-open has been thrown out the window.  There isn’t a state, even New York; that has achieved the fourteen-day decline in infection rates.  But every one is opening anyway.  The Presidential led pressure is too much.

This press conference, on the heels of the news of high-level White House infections, may be Trump’s “Mission Accomplished”.  It will certainly be the fodder for Biden campaign ads, “We Have Prevailed” backed up by increasing death tolls due to increasing social interaction.  Or maybe it will be more blunt:  “we have prevailed” in killing many more Americans.

All sacrificed so a President can get re-elected.

 

A Polarized Nation

So in my last week of substitute teaching, I have the privilege of presenting the American Civil War.  There is nothing in our history that tested the strength of our commitment to the concept of nationhood, of a Union, and of democracy.  

It began in frustration, as all of the political “tools” of our Republic led to dead ends.  There seemed to be no path to resolution as the Nation was polarized beyond reconciliation.  Every compromise, every agreement was made then broken:  neither side was willing to commit to a mutual solution.  Some even went so far as to propose a war with another power, France, as a “distraction” they could all unite behind.  That didn’t work either.

Civil War

It became almost a joyful release to start the war.  The nation, both sides; rushed to join “in the fun” of dramatic battle.  Soon they discovered the truth of war:  that people die in horrible ways.  The first battle at Bull Run was more two mobs than two armies, and America realized that it would take so much more time and sacrifice then they ever anticipated.

The years of the Civil War served as a revelation of horrors, posing the question:  how much can the people stand.  After the pause to train, there was the growing casualties, the “butcher’s bill” as General Grant would call it.  First there were the small actions, then larger battles around Richmond.  In the spring of the 1862, there was the horror of Shiloh in Tennessee, as thousands died on the grounds around a small church near the woods.

The cost would grow higher.  While Shiloh was bad, 13,000 killed, wounded or missing, the fall of 1862 would be much worse.  In one day in Sharpsburg, Maryland by the Antietam Creek, almost 23,000 were lost.  It seemed like the bottom, the worst. There couldn’t possibly be greater suffering.

Democracy Maintained

But of course, there was.  Only nine months later the same armies met again at a crossroads town in Pennsylvania, Gettysburg.  46,000 were killed wounded, or missing there in three days. And while that should have been the end, it wasn’t.  It would be two more years. The Virginia Overland Campaign of the summer of 1864 cost almost 55,000 casualties.  And the war would grind on.  It would be ten months even more after that until the war would finally end.

In the middle of that last year, the states remaining in the Union held a Presidential election.  The Army, spread far across the rebellious South, was still allowed to vote.  Some came home, some voted by absentee ballot, but all Americans found a way to hold a referendum on Abraham Lincoln, even in the course of horrific battles.  We lost a lot in the Civil War, but we maintained the traditions of our Republic, even in the worst of times.

Our World

That’s something we should remember in our COVID-19 world.  The current “butcher’s bill” for today’s crisis is 1,347,411 Americans “wounded”, and over 80,000 lost.  In the past two months, we have suffered greater losses than Shiloh, Antietam, and Gettysburg combined.  To put it in more “modern” terms, we have suffered nearly twenty-seven 9-11 attacks.  And we have no reason to believe that we are at the “Virginia Overland Campaign”, that we have reached the bottom.  More likely we have only seen our Shiloh, only at the beginning of the cost to be paid for COVID-19.  The difference – we hope a vaccine or a treatment can end the bloodletting, rather than the long bloody slog to “herd immunity”. 

Meanwhile we too are asked to judge our government.  Whatever side of our current polarized politics you hold, we must find a way to allow our democracy to survive, and to hold real elections.  The people of Wisconsin showed courage and determination, lining up to vote in a primary held in the middle of an epidemic.  The numbers are vague:  at least sixty-seven voters became infected after the election, but it’s difficult to determine cause and effect.

Come November

There is no reason to believe we will be in any better condition in November than we are now.  Holding a “normal” election, gathering at the polls and lining up to vote, seems an unnecessary risk. But, if necessary, Americans will be courageous.  They will mask and glove themselves and stand in line.  Some will get sick and die because of it, but that same dedication to democracy that lived in 1864 lives today.  

But it is completely unnecessary.  We have multiple ways to safely vote, just as those soldiers fighting far away from home in 1864 did.  This isn’t (or shouldn’t be) a partisan question; it’s simply American tradition.  We must allow Americans to safely vote.  It doesn’t even have to be some complicated electronic computer ballot.  We did it in the Civil War, we can do it today: mail ballots out, and mail them back in.

Barring some miraculous discovery, we have a long way to go in our COVID-19 crisis.  It is easy to become even more isolated and polarized, trapped in our own homes with the bad news constantly droning in the background.  But we have our own duty, as much a duty as those soldiers felt in the spring of 1861.  We have a duty to maintain our democracy, regardless of the roadblocks our partisan legislatures place in our way.  Americans should be able to do it in a protected way, but if not, then we will have to risk becoming a line on “the butcher’s bill”.  

We must do it for our country.

Good Faith

I think most people, regardless of their political views about the President, agree that the COVID-19 crisis puts many Americans’ health at risk.  And, I really believe, in spite of what I read on social media, that most Americans don’t want others to get sick or die.  But, some are desperate:  they are afraid that they won’t get paid, they won’t have a way to buy food for their families, or pay their mortgage, or keep the heat on in the winter or the air in the summer.  

They feel that this crisis makes us choose between personal economic survival and other’s illness and death.  In fact, it’s even worse than that, because they also know that they are risking illness and death for themselves, their families, and their friends.  But they are willing to take that “blind” risk, rather than suffer the more obvious economic catastrophes.

Yesterday I went on a rant about some of this.  Some of my friends (and they still are my friends) are clinging to aberrant scientists, or conspiratorial “insiders”, who are telling them what they want to hear.  They’re told it’s all a lie, a fake crisis to achieve some dark underlying goal.  They reminds me of the anti-industrialism movement of the late 1800’s, where workers took their shoes, called “sabots,” and threw them into the factory machinery.  It’s where we get our current word “sabotage” from, and it was a desperate attempt to stop progress.  It didn’t work then, and I don’t think it will now.

Our Mistakes

There have been many mistakes in this COVID-19 crisis.  We were late, so late, in recognizing the danger that the virus represented.  We didn’t act in a way that secured our country.  The November elections will in part, be all about how that was handled.  We all will get to weigh in then.  But there has also been a failure of imagination, an inability to think beyond our current processes, that has left many Americans in this desperate plight.

Unemployment

Let’s look at our unemployment process.  Here in Ohio, we have a state unemployment compensation agency that in the past processed between 20,000 and 30,000 claims a month.  December 2019 was 29,389.  January 2020 claims were 25,603, February 2020 20,498.  Then the crisis hit:  March 2020 unemployment claims were 540,542.  While final numbers for April aren’t out yet, we know that there were closer to 600,000.

So why is there surprise and consternation that the state is having trouble processing unemployment claims?  A system designed to handle tens of thousands is now trying to deal with hundreds of thousands.  It wasn’t designed for the load, and in this moment of crisis, with offices closed and workers socially distanced, isn’t “scaling up” very well.  The current process might not even be able to handle the volume with a full “scale up”.

Another “idea” is to cut the payroll taxes so that employees have more money.  But the problem isn’t getting money to the employed; it’s about how to get money to those who have lost their jobs because of the crisis.  Cutting taxes on non-existent pay gives you that old equation (and song):  “nothing from nothing leaves nothing”.

PPP

And how about the PPP, the Payroll Protection Plan that was supposed to allow small businesses to keep employees on their payroll, even if the business has to close.  The system is for the business to “borrow” money from the Small Business Administration, and then “if” they use the money to pay employees and essential bills, the loan would be forgiven.

 It’s not about the fact the “small” businesses were defined as having 500 employees or less, and that well financed and funded organizations from the LA Lakers NBA team to Harvard University to Ruth Chris Steakhouse (home of a very expensive flat iron steak) took most of the first $350 billion (the Lakers and Harvard have since returned the money).  It’s that there were so many businesses applying for funds.  Chet’s Auto here in Pataskala, with five employees got in line with everyone else but just like the unemployment process, the system was overwhelmed with the volume.  And the amount of money, including the next $310 billion added in, isn’t even close to covering the need.

Fire Hoses

We tried to use existing systems, unemployment benefits and small business loans, to grease the process of getting money out.  It wasn’t a bad idea in principle. Why establish a whole new structure when one already exists?  But it’s the old fire hose analogy:  you can’t pump more water through a maxed out two-inch hose.  You need a bigger hose.

We have an existing bigger hose.  We even used it for just a moment.  The IRS moves trillions of dollars every year.  They have a vast database of taxpayers.  When we wanted to pump out $1200 per person, the IRS process worked better than anything else.

Listen, we know that health insurance through employment works well for millions of people, but fails millions as well.  The US model of using employment as the sole means of financing people isn’t even perfect in a “perfect world”.  Whatever the Dow Jones Industrial Average was in January, we are in a “perfect world” no longer.  

So let’s take the money that the US Government is going to spend anyway – and skip the middleman.  We have already dropped FOUR TRILLION DOLLARS – ($4,000,000,000,000 – just had to write that down).  And right now, there’s lots of money leaking out the tiny hoses along the way to the people who need it.  We’ve got a direct main line, the tax information.  Let’s use it to establish a national wage until we can open up the nation SAFELY again.   Then more Americans can feel secure about both their economic lives, and their health.  They can take “the risk” of dealing with the virus first.  

And they can stop throwing sabots.

Paul McCartney and Wings – Live and Let Die

Rant

It’s not often (at least, I don’t think it’s often) that I just go off on a rant.  But this is the day, and this essay might be categorized in the “rant” column.  Take it for what it is, but it’s happening.

Yesterday, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, toured a factory in Arizona that makes facemasks.  In the COVID-19 world, they are doing important work:  facemasks help protect people from giving the virus to others, and from getting the virus themselves.  The music playing in the background:  Live and Let Die by Paul McCartney and Wings.  But in what was undoubtedly an intentional act, the President chose not to wear a mask.  And the others around him didn’t either.

It wasn’t that the President was against all protective devices.  He wore the protective eyewear needed in the factory environment.  No, he was simply making a false point about the virus.  He was saying, “It’s over, and facemasks are really not needed”. The theme song was the heavy-handed way of underlining the point:  some will live, some will die, but the country is going to open up, regardless of what Dr. Fauci or the rest of the medical community says.   We don’t even need a Corona-Virus taskforce anymore.

Money

This isn’t about those “workers” who need to get back to their jobs.  There are other ways they could be cared for:  countries all over the world are literally paying folks to stay home to stop the spread of COVID-19.  And it certainly isn’t about “the poor” at all:  the President knows that the death rate among the poor is greater than any other group, and particularly among minorities.  But they are also the most “essential workers” out in the community.  They are already working, and getting sick, and dying at a greater proportion than everyone else.

No, those “poor workers” need to GET BACK TO WORK.  Our meat packing plants have turned into hotbeds of COVID?  Too bad, we are ordering them reopened, ordering those workers back into a viral soup.  If they don’t, then Trump’s voters won’t get their boneless, skinless chicken breasts and 80-20 hamburgers because they won’t be in the stores – and the nation won’t stand for that!

Clock’s Ticking

In what seems like another lifetime, Congressman Doug Collins of Georgia criticized the Democrats of the House for impeaching the President on “…a clock and a calendar,” accusing them of hurrying ahead of the facts.  Well, here’s the real “clock and calendar;” it’s the clock of the crashing economy, and the calendar of the 2020 Presidential election.  

President Trump knows that his only chance of re-election, if there’s any remaining chance at all, is based on the James Carville phrase, “it’s the economy, stupid”.   If Trump can’t show the ‘V’ velocity of economic growth by Labor Day, then he knows the family “party” is over in the White House.  The VIP’s on Jared’s list will lose their “free lunch”.  So people need to get their meat, and workers need to get to work, even if it’s at the risk of their lives.  

This doesn’t impact the “white collar” workers, safely working from the couch at home.  And this doesn’t affect the old retired folks, many Trumpers, hiding away in their retirement homes.  The government will find a way to “fudge” the statistics on deaths in nursing homes, so that we don’t really see the contagion burning through our elderly.  Oh, they died of pneumonia, or heart failure, or old age.  COVID-19, well we didn’t test for that, so we will never know.

Excuses

In fact, while we’re fudging numbers, let’s make sure that no one trusts the facts.  Social media is absolutely stuffed with fake doctors saying fake things about COVID, and Trump sycophants re-tweeting all of that nonsense over and over again.  What’s the old advertising adage, if you hear something five times it’s true?  Trump’s social media strategy will make sure we all hear the lies fifty times.  It doesn’t make it valid, but it does make it even more difficult for the real truth to be heard.

Guess what:  China hid the fact they had a virus.  They didn’t tell the rest of the world that COVID-19 was burning through their population.  They hoarded protective gear, and ventilators, and all the other stuff they needed, and didn’t tell anyone.  And they certainly have lied about the number of fatalities; it’s hard to imagine that China had fewer deaths than New Jersey.

That doesn’t let Trump off the hook. US Intelligence warned ISRAEL (the nation) about COVID-19 in November 2019 (I25).  You think they didn’t tell their own President?  But it didn’t fit in with the Trump program, he was cutting a “great deal” with China at the time.  Instead of preparing, developing tests, tracking the virus, and keeping it out of the United States, Trump ignored the problem.  Sure he was being impeached.  I guess that the Democrat’s fault, we knew he couldn’t chew gum and walk, that we elected a President with a ten second attention span.   He let COVID in, and we’re suffering for it.

Strategy

So the Trump campaign strategy for 2020 is no longer about Biden and the Ukraine.  It’s not even about Make America Great Again.  It’s all summed up by Paul McCartney’s song:  let the corona-virus spread, as long as the Dow Jones goes back up again.  The brokers will be fine – the “essential workers” and the elderly, well: Live and Let Die.

The Lincoln Memorial

Kent State

Fifty years ago, President Richard Nixon announced an expansion of the Vietnam War.  The President who, two years before ran on a “secret” peace plan, was now expanding the war zone into Cambodia, bombing North Vietnamese bases and supplies.  Reaction on American college campuses was swift and dramatic.  Throughout the nation, students poured onto the campus greens, demanding an end to the war.  

At Kent State University there were days of demonstration.  Ohio’s Governor James Rhoades sent in the National Guard.  It was an odd confrontation, the college kids demanding that the US end the war, and the Guard, many kids the same age as the demonstrators, facing them down.  

The National Guard had tear gas, and they had the shear force of their bodies and equipment.  They established lines to contain and control the demonstrators, and while they took incoming rocks and bottles, they held the line.  But someone in the chain of command ordered live ammunition dispersed among the troops.  And someone else in that chain gave an order to fire.  Twelve students were hit, some not even in the demonstration.  Four were killed.  William Schroeder, on a ROTC Scholarship, was walking between classes.

Unfortunately Kent State wasn’t the only student shootings that month.  Police in Jackson, Mississippi fired shots into a demonstration at Jackson State University.  Two were killed, twelve wounded then.

Nixon Talks

Students marched on Washington, D.C.  Spokesmen for the President, including Vice President Spiro Agnew and Press Secretary Ron Ziegler, derided the demonstrators as “effete snobs” and “lazy elitists”.  But Nixon tried to talk to them.  The demonstrators were on the Mall, by the reflecting pool; the area just at the bottom of the steps of the Lincoln Memorial.  Nixon drove the block from the White House, and with Secret Service hovering close by, spent two hours with the demonstrators trying to talk. But there was no healing of wounds.  Nothing changed.

Today’s President 

On Sunday, the current President of the United States used the Memorial to stage a “town hall” with Fox News.  It’s an election year, and while the Memorial is supposed to be “off limits” for these kinds of events, it’s a surprise to no one that the Secretary of the Interior waved the rules, and allowed the President to use it.

It’s a political consultant’s dream; the view of the candidate, sitting in sight of Lincoln.  It doesn’t even take a great “eye” to realize that the “shot” is the “Presidential view” with Lincoln’s statue observing in the background the current leader.  So when the “town hall” was staged literally at Lincoln’s feet, it was just bad staging.

The message that President Trump was attempting to send is obvious.  He is leading a nation in crisis, economically decimated and in literal fear for its life.  Just like Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln was re-elected to the Presidency at one of the toughest points in the Civil War.  His phrase at the time was:

 “An old Dutch farmer, who remarked to a companion once that it was not best to swap horses when crossing streams.”

Trump is trying to convince a nation that he is the horse to get us across the stream of the COVID-19 and economic crisis.  That’s why President Lincoln is sitting in the background.

But instead, President Trump took the opportunity to whine:  

“They always said, ‘Lincoln, nobody got treated worse than Lincoln. I believe I am treated worse.”

Lincoln

Of course, Lincoln was assassinated.  Guess Trump can’t top that.

And the President still refuses to take responsibility for the consequences of the crisis.  Instead, he continued his campaign of blaming China.  He even refused to back his own plan for re-opening America, instead saying about demonstrators in many states:

“They just want to go back. You see it every day. You see demonstrations all over the country and those are meaningful demonstrations. It’s big stuff.”

If only the President had looked beyond the Fox interviewers, and read the writing on the wall behind them.  Engraved on the wall are the words of Lincoln’s Second Inaugural speech. Those words helped change Lincoln’s world, and they still apply today.

“With malice toward none with charity for all with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right let us strive on to finish the work we are in to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan ~ to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.”

We know Abraham Lincoln.  And regardless of the location, we all know:

Donald Trump is no Abraham Lincoln.

Anticipation

Sure it’s Carly Simon – but it really was that ketchup ad – wasn’t it?

The Song                                 The Ad

The Stats

The United States has the highest amount of infections for COVID-19 in the world with over 1.1 million (discounting the numbers that China probably is lying about).  The United States has the highest deaths from COVID-19 (maybe China, again) with over 67,000 lost as of this writing.  And yet, so far, we have dodged the bullet.

Our leading epidemiologists anticipated infections in the 20 million or more range, and deaths at 200,000 or more.  So there are a couple of caveats:  we haven’t tested enough to actually know what the infection rate is, and we only know the cause of death of those tested.  How many passed away in nursing homes, or at home, or from “pneumonia” or other causes that actually died from COVID-19, we really don’t know.

The Heart

But we do know this:  Americans took the recommendations to “socially distance” and “stay at home” to heart.  We did it, we “beat the odds” and actually did more than the epidemiologists ever expected.  Yes, over 30 million Americans filed for unemployment.  Yes, there were toilet paper shortages, and now there is likely to be meat missing in the freezers.  And there is the psychological price we’ve paid for being at home.  It will be interesting to see the number of divorces, and declared alcoholism, that will appear when all this is over.

But May 1^st was the deadline.  The entire last paragraph was written in the “past” tense.  We’ve paid the price, and now we get to fulfill our Anticipation.  Back to the bar, or the beach, or the ballgame.  In our head, it’s over – right?

The Deadline

But nothing has really changed.  COVID-19 is more ubiquitous than ever.  More people have it, and more can spread it, than before St. Patrick’s Day when all of this began.  Sure, for the moment, we “flattened the curve” and prevented the unthinkable:  hospitals so overwhelmed that they allowed some to die so others could live.  The Trump Administration keeps saying it:  “No American died from lack of a ventilator.”  I hope that’s true.

But we really are just in those first few weeks of March again.  If we re-open, go back to the bars and the beaches and the ballparks, the whole thing will start over again.  

The American people are known for their great hearts, and their lack of patience.  We’ve been anticipating “FREEDOM!!!” (Remember that memorable cry from Mel Gibson in Braveheart) and we were promised it, kind of, on May 1^st.  

The Governor

I think Governor DeWine here in Ohio did exactly what he had to do.  He couldn’t have said, back in early March, we’re going to close down Ohio until there’s a vaccine.  That would be maybe a year or more.  He couldn’t even say “June,” we had to wait until the end of April for him to start even hinting at that.  DeWine carefully measured the patience of the people of Ohio, and then made his decision.  It was May 1^st, until April 27^th.  Then, it wasn’t.  

Now he’s slipping a few “freedoms” out there, letting some people go back to work, and opening some stores.  But Mike DeWine knows that nothing has really changed unless the people of Ohio make it change.  And he’s under pressure from “his right”, the social media infused, AR-15 toting folks down at the statehouse, and the more “normal” folks who are looking at paying May bills without May salaries. 

This is where other countries got it right, and the United States didn’t.  Sure, most got $1200 from the IRS last month, but it wasn’t enough, and it doesn’t cover the May bills.  Canada and other countries put much of the workforce on “government salaries” to keep them home.  Here in “good old capitalist” America, we are forcing meat packing workers back into the cauldrons of COVID-19 transmission.  Upton Sinclair would find it oddly familiar.

What’s Next

When faced with the inability to pay for food, or rent, or transportation, many Americans will risk COVID-19. That they are making that choice for themselves is one thing, but the reality is that in doing so they are spreading infection to others.  The attitude seems to be, well, too bad?  We might not be able to “flatten” the next curve.

And Governor DeWine is stuck in the middle.  Much as he wants to mandate wearing facemasks, he backed away from it.  Much as he wants to keep our state buttoned up, he’s got to let some things open.  DeWine knows he’s risking the “bullet” coming back on us, but he doesn’t have a choice. 

 There’s been too much “anticipation”.

Morning Workout

So, I do a workout most mornings.  Since I’m “online teaching”, I time-shift my schedule, doing school work from six to eight, then take an hour to hit the elliptical machine and do some calisthenics.   It’s good to do something to stay in shape, particularly in this time of  “stay-at-home orders”.  

This morning I made sure I was on the elliptical machine when Mika Brezhenski interviewed Joe Biden on MSNBC’s Morning Joe.  This was Biden’s first response to an accusation of sexual assault made by former staffer, Tera Reade.  

Reade was a junior member of Biden’s Senate staff in 1993.  A couple years ago, she claimed that Biden inappropriately touched her hair and shoulder in a Senate hallway during that time.  She readily admits she is unclear on the actual time or date.  Her accusation fits a pattern that other women have said about Biden, that he was a “touchy-feely” man. Biden hugged, patted, and put his hands on shoulders, men as well as women.  Some women complain that they felt that contact was inappropriate, and Biden issued a blanket apology for making them feel uncomfortable.

But two weeks ago, Ms. Reade changed her accusation.  She now says that then-Senator Biden did more than just inappropriately touch her:  that he in fact reached under her clothing and penetrated her with his fingers.  The “inappropriate touching” became sexual assault.  She even went so far as to file a police report with the Washington DC police, even though the statute of limitations has long passed. Oddly, the report does not name Biden, though she later said that it was him (Washington Times).

#METOO

If this were Donald Trump, I would assume that the woman was telling the truth.  It certainly would fit the pattern of dozens of other women who claim the Trump did those kinds of things.  I wouldn’t even wait for any further “evidence” that could exist.  It’s the kind of guy Trump is, from paying-off affairs to the Access Hollywood tape.  Somehow though, Trump has gotten a “pass” from much of the nation for his actions.

But as a Democrat in the third year of the #METOO era, I am in a difficult dilemma.  I believe that there are men who abuse their power and assault women.  I’ve known some men like that, and I’ve supported women who stood up against them.  I was and still am appalled that our politics are so polarized that many of my Republican friends found ways to excuse Mr. Trump’s behavior.  

The Record

I reluctantly agreed that Democratic Senator Al Franken resign from the Senate.  Franken too was a “touchy-feely” guy, but worse, a former comedian with photos showing him pretending to commit sexual assault.  It all broke at the height of the Alabama Senate campaign, with Democrat Doug Jones running against a credibly accused child molester, Judge Roy Moore.  The national party had to make a clear demarcation between Moore and Trump-like behavior and what Democrats stand for.  Franken paid the price.

And I also agree that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh got a “pass” for his possible behaviors.  Some credible (and some not so credible) claims were made that he committed sexual assaults.  The critical event of that time weren’t so much the charges, but that there was no real investigation into the women’s claims.  Instead, the FBI was ordered to do a whitewash, and prevented from following up any leads they received.  The Republican Senate made sure that Kavanaugh owed them for a lifetime; in return he received his lifetime appointment to the Court.

The Interview

So here I am, hitting my mileage on the machine, and listening to Joe Biden.  Here are Biden’s bullet points:

• Biden absolutely denies the accusation.  He allowed no “wiggle room”; he didn’t say he “can’t recall”.  Biden said it didn’t happen.
• He asked the Senate Secretary to have the National Archives open his files from the era, looking through all the personnel records to find the complaint she said was made.  The former Vice President is confident there is no such complaint.
• He has asked his staff at the time – no one remembers a complaint.
• He believes that a woman should be heard, and that her complaints should be considered credible.  Then there should be and investigation, and the truth found.  Biden is clear that the truth is that nothing happened.  
• He doesn’t see a contradiction between his stand in the Kavanaugh hearing and his stand today.  He believes that there wasn’t a real investigation of Kavanaugh.
• Biden made it clear he wasn’t questioning Tara Reade’s motives.

There is a “controversy” about Biden’s personal papers, now in possession of the University of Delaware.  Biden donated the papers to be cataloged and kept after his political career was over.  Delaware reasonably thought that would be in 2020, before Biden entered the Presidential campaign.  The “seal” has been extended.  Biden states that the papers contain his personal comments and conversations with world leaders and President Obama.  Legally personnel records cannot be included in those records.

Releasing them would not only hurt a future President Biden in his dealings with other nations, but would be a treasure trove of opposition research for his political enemies.  The records at Delaware are staying sealed. 

My Standard

So do I have a double standard? Well, I have seen and heard the evidence of Trump’s activities.  I have seen the evidence of Roy Moore’s activities.  I saw the pictures of Al Franken.  None of us saw the evidence regarding Kavanaugh; they weren’t allowed to pursue it.  So right now, I’ll listen to what Ms. Reade has to say.  But I’ll need to see more than just a changing story from twenty-seven years ago to believe her.  That’s my standard, and I’m sticking to it.

Truman

It was 1952.  Harry Truman was in the last year of his Presidency, and the United States was bogged down in the Korean War.  Almost 40,000 Americans soldiers were dead in four years on the Korean peninsula, and now the battle had staggered to a stalemate along what would ultimately be the demarcation line between South and North.  The United States was a nation at war, but one undeclared by Congress.

And then the United Steel Workers went on a nationwide strike.  Truman, expecting the kind of dedication and sacrifice that Americans made for so long in World War II, was incensed at both union and management for allowing the impasse.  They refused to reach an agreement.  Truman, with typical decisiveness, decided he’d had enough.  He nationalized the steel industry, ordering workers back to the mills, all under his authority as a President at war.

Overreach

The Supreme Court quickly heard the case,  Youngstown Sheet and Tube v Sawyer.  It might be considered the end of the “New Deal” era in one sense.  After years of increasing Presidential power dealing with the Great Depression, then World War II, and finally the new Cold War era of nuclear threat, the Supreme Court restrained Presidential power.  They ordered that the President’s order be withdrawn.

Truman reluctantly followed the Court’s demand, and the steelworkers went back on strike.  It took fifty more days, and threats by Truman to draft the entire steel industry into the army, to force labor and management to an agreement.

Food Crisis

Last Sunday John Tyson, Chairman of Tyson Foods, placed a full-page advertisement in the New York Times.  He said, in part:

“As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close, even for short periods of time, millions of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain. As a result, there will be limited supply of our products available in grocery stores until we are able to reopen our facilities that are currently closed.” (Time).

This ad came on the heels of dramatic closures of food processing plants, many in the Midwest, due to COVID-19.  The “poster” plant was the Smithfield Foods Plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, where 350 employees, 10% of the workforce, tested positive for the virus.  The plant was shut down.  It produces 5% of America’s pork  (NPR). 

Other processing plants in the United States followed suit, as testing revealed high rates of infection throughout the industry.  Conditions at the plant, including shoulder-to-shoulder workstations, contribute to the contagion.  

Defense Production Act

The question for President Trump was how to protect the American food supply chain, and how to protect the plant employees.  Yesterday he took action similar to Truman’s order back in 1952.  Trump ordered the plants to re-open, using his authority under the Defense Production Act.  His order emphasized liability protections for management, preventing them from being sued by their workers for getting sick.  But there was little in the order to change the conditions that created the problem in the first place.  The workers are still at risk, and are being placed in an impossible position (WAPO).

Workers face a stark choice:  risk COVID-19 infection by going to work, or stay at home and not get paid.  And the communities surrounding the plants are in a similar position. The plants staying open will get paychecks circulating in town.  But they also risk virus contagion throughout the community.

There is no question that COVID-19 has caused a nationwide emergency.  And there is no question that a threat to the American food supply is a serious problem.  But that problem cannot be resolved by simply throwing the workers back into “the disease” without guaranteeing protections.  

Trump

The powers of the Presidency have vastly increased since 1952.  The Congress, both Democrat and Republican, has consistently turned over what used to be legislative authority to the Executive Branch.  While Truman depended on his war making authority to demand that Youngstown Sheet and Tube reopen, President Trump has more specific powers granted under the Defense Production Act.  

But with those added powers should come added responsibility.  The President needs to do as much to protect the workers in those plants as he does to protect the stockholders from liability.  And if that can’t be done, then America may have to do without their skinless, boneless chicken breasts or pork loins or 80-20 ground beef until those workers can do their work, safely.

 

The Court

The Supreme Court, like every other institution in the United States, is dramatically impacted by the COVID-19 crisis.  Oral arguments, the grist of Supreme Court action, were postponed both in March and April.  The Court is now planning to remotely meet in May, and for the first time in history, allow live voice broadcast of the arguments.  That’s because the Justices are holding arguments by phone (NPR).

Two of the cases the Court will hear are about President Trump’s financial records, and whether Congress has the power to subpoena them.  There is also an additional case, a Grand Jury subpoena of Trump’s records from New York.  All three subpoenas were upheld in the lower Courts.

Traditional Conservatives

Traditionally, American conservatives have been in favor of Congressional oversight of the Executive Branch.  Only a decade ago, Congress demanded that the Executive branch answer to subpoenas investigating the Internal Revenue Service for harassing conservative action committees, the Justice Department for a botched Mexican gun buying investigation, and, of course, the multiple investigations into what happened at Benghazi.  With one notable exception, the Obama administration responded to those actions (Attorney General Eric Holder ultimately refused to release some documents, after testifying three times to the Republican controlled committees).

Now Congress is asking the President to turn over financial records, including his tax returns.  One of those requests, made by the Ways and Means Committee of the Democratically controlled House, cites a Federal law that gives them the power to request any individual tax return, written specifically because of Executive Branch corruption during the Teapot Dome Scandals in the 1920’s.  As was pointed here in Trump World over a year ago, it’s clear law (26 US Code § 6103 (f) (1)).

Traditional conservatives, at home in the Republican Party, have always favored the balancing of Constitutional power. Common sense says then that the conservative majority on the Supreme Court will uphold that balance.  But don’t hold your breath.

Unassailable Power

The majority Justices of the Supreme Court aren’t traditional conservatives.  They have embraced a philosophy that is far from the traditional conservatism of Barry Goldwater or Ronald Reagan.  They espouse a theory of massive executive authority, granting the President powers and privileges that would have appalled James Madison and Alexander Hamilton, principal authors of the Constitution.  With that, and the clear partisan split of the Court with five Republicans and four Democrats, and it’s possible the President may gain the power to hide his own finances from any investigating eyes.

The Supreme Court may not be the only ones burning their conservative bridges to protect the Trump Presidency.  The leaders of the Republican Party have remained silent during the COVID-19 crisis.  The follies of the Trump daily briefing, from Lysol to Chloroquine, to the President’s claim of “total authority” have all gone on with little Republican comment.  And the Trump Administration’s amazing silence about the achievements of a fellow Republican, Governor Mike DeWine in Ohio, is deafening.

It is all about November.  Given the choice between a Democratic nominee like Joe Biden, or accepting the botched handling of this existential crisis, Republicans are standing silent.   We see it in the information void from Republican Senators, and the ridiculous “principled stands” of Congressman Tom Massie delaying House response (Politico).

Gaslighting

And we also see it in the Trump Administration itself, who have embraced a policy placing responsibility for COVID-19 testing on the states, instead of making it a national priority.  The reason is clear and political:  the tests aren’t available to determine whether to open the economy.  If we wait for testing, then the economy won’t recover in time for the November election, and there will be no path for a Trump re-election.  And even if there were the tests, the results might show that the economy cannot open.  So open the economy and accept the increased deaths and illnesses that may create, in order to win the political argument:  “it’s the economy stupid”.

This plan is backed up by a social media campaign by Trump surrogates, demanding that the economy MUST be reopened now, or America will be ruined.  This triggers millions who fear that the country will never “return to normal”.  That ultimate nightmare somehow makes the potential loss of life more palatable.

The nation is being “gaslighted”.   We are being distracted, not for economic reasons, but political ones.  And it’s not just Trump, it’s all of the other Republicans, from the Supreme Court to the Senate, who are letting him do it.  They have burned their political bridges.  They are risking American lives.   When the “butcher’s bill” is delivered, they will have no place to retreat.

 

 

 

Class Assignment

I assigned my history classes to write a “Living History Journal” for this last quarter of the school year.  Every week, they add a couple hundred words to their project, telling their story of life in the 2020 pandemic.  I feel like someday, they will want to know what it was like to be twelve, or thirteen, or fourteen when the world came to a halt.

I was tempted to compare the project to the Diary of Anne Frank, but I didn’t want to scare them.  Anyway, it gets them thinking about everything that’s new and different in their world.  In the beginning they wrote about toilet paper shortages (and Raman noodle shortages too) and being able to sleep in.  Now they talk a lot more about missing friends, lost trips and vacations, and struggles to stay on task in “online” school.

And they talk about the crisis.  You can hear their parents’ views echoed in the journals, some saying we need to stay in isolation until we are sure, others talking about how we need to “open up” right away.  You can also hear the fears, from the kids with parents working on the front line as nurses, or a police officers, or prison guards.  And you read the worry they have about losing the “old” people in their lives.

Zooming

But what you hear most is the isolation.  They miss their extended families, and they miss their friends.  We have “Zoom” classes, something I’d never even heard of two months ago.  In case you missed it, the kids all log their computers into a video meeting.  Their pictures are arrayed on the screen like the Brady Bunch (that reference shows some age) and they can all participate. 

There are issues with Zoom.  There’s a time lag in the audio, and only one person is able to speak at a time.  If a dog or someone’s little brother gets in the picture everyone sees it.  But it’s a chance for the kids to communicate “live” with the teacher, and even more importantly with each other.  As a teacher, it’s a frustrating experience (at least for me) but the kids get to socialize, maybe even more than to learn.  In fact I “lost control” of my first sixth grade “Zoom Class”, the kids were talking to each other about anything besides Ancient Indian history.  But that session also served a more important purpose than history, I think.

The kids talk about all the work they are doing around the house.  Rooms are being built, mulch is being laid, gardens planted and lawns mowed.  It’s happening here at my house too, right outside our front window.   It’s good to get out in the sun even if it is to “work”.

Family

It was my oldest sister’s birthday last night, and we had a “Zoom” meeting for our entire family.  We’ve been talking to each other a lot, but it was the first time that my two sisters and I have seen each other for more than a year.   It was great to see everyone:  sisters and husbands, nieces, nephews, and grandchildren.  Like the sixth grade class, it was confusing and disjointed, but it was fun.

My “middle” sister is hunkered down in New Jersey just outside of New York City; my niece is a Nurse Practioner in the Denver area, working in nursing homes.  They are in “hot spots” for the virus; it’s not a “somebody else” problem for them.  But even under that risk, they continue to live their lives.  My New Jersey sister and her husband are artists, and they do their work from home.  And my niece does her job, and then comes home to three young kids.  There’s not a lot of time to worry, though both do. 

Time Served

We are all getting to that point here in the COVID-19 crisis.  It’s been six weeks in isolation, and the kids, and my family, are all getting anxious to “get on” with life.  My family is lucky, everyone who needs to work is working, and the oldest generation, mine, are all retired.  Many of my kids’ families aren’t as lucky financially.  But both from my family, and from the History Journals, the pressure is on.  

This will be the really hard part.  As pieces of the United States open, other parts will need to remain closed.  Folks in Ohio will see people in other states going back to restaurants and bars, and wonder why we can’t do that.  In Florida they are opening the beaches, while in Pataskala they just cancelled high school graduation and closed the local athletic fields.  There’s a lot of mixed messaging going on.  And the folks hearing those messages are anxious to “go”.

But “going” might be too soon, and create a whole new round of COVID-19 illness and death.  No matter how you read the statistics that risk is clear.   Can we suffer more time apart, available on “zoom” but not in real life?  Can we handle the isolation even if it takes until we can all be tested, or even vaccinated?  And if we can’t, are we willing to accept the moral responsibility of the death and suffering premature “opening” may cause?

As the commercial on TV just said, “…we’ve got to get this right”.  

A Career

After a career in education, it’s difficult to say what I’m an “expert” in.  I spent twenty-eight years in the classroom, teaching social studies courses from world history to economics to government.  I was a good teacher, but I don’t know that I’d ever call myself an “expert”.  There were teachers who were better at the “jargon”, and better at the paperwork. And there were teachers who did a better job of communicating with parents.  I was good, and I knew my subjects and I knew kids – but I don’t know if I was an “expert”.

And I spent forty years coaching track and field.  I earned a Masters Degree in the sport. Then, I spent years coaching every event, from shot put to long distance.  I had success in almost every area, but the most important thing I learned is to find other good coaches to work with, and let them do their job.  After all those years, it’s hard to say if I was an “expert” in any one event, except maybe pole vaulting.

Pole Vault

The pole vault is that event where an athlete takes a long fiberglass pole, runs down towards a big foam mat, and uses the pole to jump over an increasingly higher bar.  I started coaching the event in 1982, because I couldn’t find the “good coach” to work with.  I focused on learning the event, serving a kind of broad apprenticeship with some of the best coaches in the United States.  

We had a lot of success, and after all the years, I might be considered an “expert” in high school pole vaulting.  At least, I’m “expert” enough for the state coaches organization to let me teach pole vault safety to coaches all across the state. And I’m “expert” enough for the lawyers that are looking for pole vault “expert” testimony  – though they don’t know anything about pole vault.  It’s easy to be an expert compared to them.

YouTube

Out on YouTube there are other pole vault coaches who claim to be “experts”.  Some of them are, and a few are really the best in the world.  But some of the other so-called “experts” are teaching techniques that will ultimately get someone killed.  Pole vaulting has it dangers.  After all, when you use a fiberglass pole to launch high into the air, you better do it right.  There’s lots of ways to get hurt.  But if you search YouTube long enough, you can find “experts” who ignore all of the acknowledged safety practices.  They promise great success with their “new techniques”. But there is no “disclaimer” that they are dangerous, no “Fact Check” in pole vault warning you off.  

All it takes to be an “expert” on YouTube (or the rest of the Internet) is a post or a website (just like mine).   It’s like that in pole vault, and it’s like that in all sorts of even more dangerous activities as well.  There are sites out there, on the Internet right now, that claim they have “all the answers” to the current pandemic.  They “can prove” with “statistical studies” that ALL OF THE OTHER EXPERTS are wrong. 

The Herd

They claim that COVID-19 is nothing more than the flu.  They want us to just “let if go” and live our lives normally.  Sure, people are going to die, but ultimately we will achieve “herd immunity”.  Most of the population will be immune, or strong enough to survive infection.  The rest – well – it’s just culling the herd, isn’t it?  And meanwhile, we can go back to earning our livings, making money, and live what was our “normal” way of life.

Those YouTube “experts” have decided that all of the real experts, globally acknowledged experts like Tony Fauci who has spent decades fighting pandemics, are just wrong.  And because of our hyper-partisan, conspiracy-seeking political environment today, those YouTube experts are gaining a following.  

Who to Believe

Forces long before the Trump Administration attacked the reputation of our national institutions, like the Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes for Health.  It has been politically expedient to say those institutions are corrupted by big business, and tainted with scandal.  Even “experts” with heroic names, like Robert Kennedy Jr., have spent years attacking their credibility.  

So I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise that the YouTube “experts” are now calling on Americans to ignore those institutions and the real experts when in comes to COVID-19.  After all, the disease has killed over 50,000 in just a couple of months.  It has come close to overwhelming our healthcare system.  It’s only through heroic efforts (even by the Trump Administration) that hospitals have managed the onslaught.  

The real experts have shut down America, for the purpose of saving lives.  But just like in pole vaulting, there’s someone on YouTube who can tell you how to do it better.  

Better hope they don’t get you killed.

No-Brainer

In my world there is something called a “no-brainer”.  That means it doesn’t take much thought to think that something is a good idea.  For example, Friday night pizza and beer:  a “no-brainer”.  So when I look at the national response to COVID-19, it seems to me that it’s a no-brainer to maintain the strict guidelines that have dramatically lowered the infection and death numbers.

We have done nothing to “stop” the virus; it’s still out there.  But what we have done is protected our population from infection by spacing out, hiding in our homes, and keeping apart.  It’s worked, we see it in the statistic that should mean more than any:  instead of hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths (so far) we are looking at something closer to sixty thousand.  

That number is still abhorrent.  But the actions of individual Americans, staying in their homes and following the “guidelines” have saved many.  

We have been under the “guidelines” since March 16^th, the day before St. Patrick’s Day.  That’s thirty-seven days for those keeping count – a long time to hide out.  Folks are getting restless, maybe beyond restless, and they want to go back to their “normal” lives again.  Who can blame them?

Return to Normalcy

There is another pressure pushing people to “return to normalcy” (thanks President Harding!!).  It’s simple:  money.  Twenty-six million Americans have filed for unemployment in the past six weeks.  The state unemployment offices, designed for maybe a few hundred a week, are now face with an overwhelming number of claims.  Not surprisingly, they are so far behind, that folks are waiting weeks to get any kind of unemployment compensation.

And on the Federal side, the PPP (Paycheck Protection Program), designed to keep people “employed” in their jobs even if they can’t work, ran out of money in forty-eight hours.   It’s being re-infused now by the Congress, but even that will not be near enough to keep folks paid.  The numbers are simply beyond the capacity of the program to quickly handle.

And finally there’s the one-time Federal payment, if they’re eligible.  It’s $1200, maybe enough to cover the rent and utilities for the month.  But that was last month, and now folks are faced with paying bills with money they simply don’t have, and don’t have reason to expect soon.  And that’s if they’re qualified for the payment.

A Gig World

There are a lot of twenty and thirty-something’s working in the “gig” economy.  The cost of healthcare is so great, that many employers won’t hire fulltime workers.  If they did, they’d have to offer benefits, instead they keep more employees on a part-time basis.  This lays bare the flaw in our employee based health care system:  employers have found a way to “dodge the healthcare bullet”.  So a lot of those folks don’t have health insurance at all.  And many are working a couple of jobs, maybe a big-box store for twenty hours, and waiting table for fifteen more a week.  When everything’s going well, it’s enough money to cover expenses, but when everything falls apart, their left destitute.

It’s been thirty-seven days, and many of them haven’t seen a paycheck or a government check.  If they received the Federal payment, it’s gone.  And even though a lot of landlords are cancelling rent payments, it doesn’t mean they won’t owe ALL the rent someday – just not today.  And zero money doesn’t pay for groceries, or gas if there’s somewhere to go.

What We Want

We want people to stay isolated.  We know that if we “go back” to the “good old days” of early March, we will trigger a COVID-19 spike, and be right back in the crisis we avoided.  All of us should remember the story of Philadelphia in 1918. The city dodged the worst of the Spanish Flu epidemic, following the same prescription that Dr. Fauci and the rest offered to us.  They stayed apart, they shut down, and they kept the infection rates down.

But World War I ended, and they wanted to celebrate with a massive parade.  Two hundred thousand Philadelphians came out to cheer “the boys” returning from Europe.  Within two weeks, the Spanish Flu was back and thousands more died.

So the answer is to keep up the work.  But if we’re going to get that done, we’ve got to get money to folks to keep going. We have to take care of those who slip through the cracks, the “gig economy” workers who don’t show up as “regular” employees.  If we don’t, we can’t expect that they will quietly stay at home, with no way for them to financially take care.  

Unemployment offices are overwhelmed – we need to help them.  The PPP is underfunded, we need to put more in.  The $1200 is gone (if it ever showed up).  We need to do that again, and maybe more.  And for those who say the Federal government can’t afford it, the short answer is that the Federal government can’t afford not to.  Yes, the bill will have to be paid, but it’s better to pay a financial bill later, than the butcher’s bill of death now.

Campaign Frozen

Joe Biden is now labeled as the “apparent” Democratic nominee for President in 2020.  There are a lot of delegates yet to be chosen.  Worse, there are a lot of elections that no one knows how to actually conduct.  We already are hearing of voters who got COVID-19 voting in the Wisconsin primary.  We know, inevitably, someone will die because the voters of Wisconsin were forced to line up and vote.  

By the way, the Facebook “meme” claiming that if people can lineup to get into Wal-Mart then they should be willing to line up to vote, is bogus.  Lining up to vote, to exercise your citizenship right as an American, should not be a life threatening choice.  Lining up to get into Wal-Mart may well be a dangerous choice today, but the difference is you don’t HAVE to go to Wal-Mart.  There are always other ways, including online shopping and Wal-Mart’s Grocery Pickup that avoids the line, the crowd, and the risk of getting sick.

But there’s no such thing as a “voting” pickup in Wisconsin.  If you don’t meet the “requirement” for absentee voting, you either show, or don’t vote.  Of course, people could lie to get an absentee ballot, but voting fraud shouldn’t be the only reasonable choice a citizen can make to cast their ballot.

So let’s get back to Joe Biden’s problem.  He’s going to be the nominee, but the elections may not be held to gather the 1991 delegates to win.  Biden currently has 1305.  There will be more elections; Ohio will close its March 17^th vote on April 28^th and those delegates will be added.  But other states may never get around to having a primary.

Virtual Balloons

And while the Convention itself has moved from July until August, there isn’t even an actual date set for the event.  Will it really happen in Milwaukee, or just be a giant “Zoom” event.  And what about all of the free publicity a convention offers a candidate challenging the sitting President?  Will Biden get the rousing endorsement speech we all expect from Barack Obama, or will it be a home televised event from the Obama basement?  Will Biden himself ever get to make that final acceptance speech on a podium to applause and red, white and blue balloons, or will he speak from his home in Delaware?

All of this underlines Biden’s biggest issue:  how to campaign in a COVID-19 world.  I’ve been listening to MSNBC, a Biden friendly zone, for five hours this morning (while I did school work).  For five hours it’s been COVID-19.  There must be NO other news; the virus news has literally taken up all of the oxygen in the air.  Biden’s name was not mentioned.  

Other Democrats have offices and roles that give them more visibility than the presumptive nominee.   New York Governor Cuomo, leading the nation’s greatest struggle against the virus, get’s airtime every day.  Chuck Schumer, Senator Minority Leader comments on legislation.  Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, is highly visible with the Democratic agenda.  But Biden is able to only push out some social media from Delaware; little more is getting out in “the world”.

No Campaign Trail

And even as some states “open” it’s not likely that Biden will be able to resume the campaign trail.  Besides, why would Democrats risk Biden’s health to COVID-19?  Just because the Governors of Georgia and South Carolina are willing to risk their state’s population, Democrats shouldn’t put Biden on the block.

So in our brave new COVID-19 world, how does a man run for President?  And even if the virus lifts in the summer, what happens to campaign momentum if, as the scientists predict, the virus re-emerges in the fall?  The President will still have his “bully pulpit” but will the Democratic nominee have a podium?  And finally, how far can a candidate go running against a President embroiled in a national crisis of the first order?

All of these questions are important, if the question of the election is Trump versus Biden.  That’s traditional campaign thought, and what we all expect will happen.  But to upset that traditional paradigm, the 2020 election may not be the man-to-man campaign that both Biden and Trump want.  It’s just as likely to simply be a test of Trump, the popular evaluation of his four years, and particularly the last year. It will by about his competency as President.  

And if that’s the case, then Joe Biden should stay low.  He’s got it in the bag.

Ohio

I’m looking out my front window on a beautiful spring day.  The grass is green (and well manicured, I might add) and the sun is shining.  It’s hard to imagine that I’m looking out at a COVID-19 world, a world of self-isolation, social distancing, and gloves and facemasks.

Here in Ohio, our Governor, Republican Mike DeWine, is doing something that seems unusual.  He’s competent.  Unlike the flurry of mixed messages we are receiving from the daily White House briefing, Governor DeWine is clear in his goals for Ohio.  Let’s get open, WHEN it can safely be done.  He knows businesses, particularly small ones operating on the financial margin.  The Governor knows many of the unemployed have been unable to navigate the overwhelmed unemployment benefit network.

And, he knows people are scared of the virus, but also of not being able to buy food, or pay the bills, or take care of health problems beyond COVID-19.  He knows.

But he also knows that closing our eyes and pretending things are better is not only foolish, but a desperate gamble most likely to end up in more deaths, more quarantine, and more economic ruin.  So he’s telling Ohio, “Go slow.”  The schools are closed for the remainder of the year.  Teachers have shifted to online learning, but many school districts are contemplating ending the year early.  While many students are gamely toiling at their computers, there are thirty percent or more who never made the sudden transition.  They are “lost” to education this year.  

Georgia

If you look far down I-75, you see the Governor of Georgia with both eyes firmly closed.  His President is speaking from both sides of his mouth.  One side is saying:  “follow the plan to reach the ‘first tier’ of re-opening.”  The other side is saying: “rebel against government control, open everything now.”  Unfortunately for the people of Georgia, Governor Kemp is hearing only the second part.  He is opening gyms and tattoo parlors, massage centers, hair-dressers and nail clinics and then demanding that they maintain social distancing.  I haven’t quite figured out how to get a tattoo, a massage, or a manicure without being within the six foot distancing limit.  

What happens in Atlanta doesn’t stay there.  Not only is it a major American city, but also it is a central transportation hub.  Fly Delta: there’s almost no way to avoid Hartsfield Airport.  If Georgia loses control of COVID-19, Hartsfield won’t be accessible.  So Governor Kemp’s decisions aren’t just affecting the people of his state.  His calls are going to impact how the Nation resumes business.

Florida

Just a few miles farther south on I-75 is Florida, the 47^th oldest state in America (Vermont, Maine and West Virginia have older median ages).  Knowing the dangers of COVID-19 to the elderly, one would think that Florida would want to take “re-opening” very slowly.  One would be wrong.

DeSantis already gained notoriety by keeping Florida “open” for Spring Break.  Now some of the beaches are back open again, and DeSantis is looking to begin tourism again.  However, he does have an advantage other Governors don’t seem to have.  DeSantis’ closeness to the President has gotten Florida greater access to testing equipment.  The President even offered one for the Governor himself; so he could, like the President, test everyone who comes in the office.

Florida is ranked eighth in the United States for COVID, with 26,314 confirmed cases.  

Does it Matter

Just because any Governor declares that the state is now “open for business” it really doesn’t matter.  Like the proverbial tree falling in the forest, if businesses are open and no one comes, are they really open?  The reality of America is that most are well aware of the dangers of viral transmission.  Even Fox News admits that the reason the original doomsday forecasts of more than a million COVID deaths didn’t occur, is the swift and broad actions by the American people.  We did the right thing, we distanced ourselves, and we stayed at home.

Recent surveys show that Americans aren’t convinced that there is a short-term solution to the COVID pandemic.  Folks aren’t going to crowd into a restaurant, or the tattoo parlor, until they believe it’s safe.  That includes even the folks in Georgia and Florida.

So in the end, it will be Americans who will determine when America is open, not the Governors, or the Doctors, or even the President of the United States.  Like it or not, most Americans are smart enough to know.

Old Dog

I retired from public school in 2017, but that was a long time after I left the classroom.  From 1978 to 2006 I was a high school and middle school social studies teacher.  I then became the Dean of Students at Watkins Memorial High School for the last eight years of my career.  And I was always a track coach, my last job in public education. I retired from that after my 40^th season in 2017.

So when Jenn and I decided to stay home for the winter of 2020, I thought it would be good to do some substitute teaching.  It wasn’t just to make a little extra money, it was also to do something more than workout and write essays through the long winter season.

The classroom changed in the fifteen years since I left.  When I cleared out my room in 2006, the main visual presentation mode was called a chalkboard.  Today, that board is still there, but usually covered with posters and materials.  Instead, you have a “Smartboard”, a video projection device attached to the computer.  It’s remarkable, you can project anything from the computer to the board, and you can write on the board as well, and save the “notes” back to the computer.  

It took some getting used to, especially for an old “I forgot the chalk in my pocket and washed my pants” guy.  

New Tricks

But the real change in classrooms today is that every kid has a computer.  The long lecture I used to give, covering the battle of Gettysburg from the railroad cut to the charge on Cemetery Ridge, won’t fly today.  The kids want to hear the story, but they also want to see it, to hear the bugles and the cannons, to see the movement of the troops.  And they can, on the computer, through YouTube videos and snippets of any of a dozen Civil War movies.  Good teachers today still teach, but they also are adept at directing their classes to resources on their individual computers.

So subbing classes was a big change for me, pushing me to adapt to “modern” education.  But that was “all good”, and I decided to signup for a long-term sub job.  A wonderful teacher, great with students and highly knowledgeable about modern technology, was having her first child.  So in I went, starting the second week of March, ready to teach Middle School social studies for the rest of the year.

And then corona-virus hit.  The schools closed.  And everyone, from the veteran to the rookie, became a first year teacher.

No one planned on learning “online” for the last quarter of the school year.  And for those who say, “Well, there’s been online education for a while,” I’d counter that the kids on online education in the past were willing participants.  No one gave the students of Watkins Middle School or all of the other public schools a choice, they went from the classroom on Friday, to spring break, to life on a computer monitor.

Brand New World

The teachers didn’t plan on being online for the last quarter of the school year.   Those veteran teachers with years of experience in the bag, were thrown right back into the first year again. Nothing was planned, and every interaction was a brand new experience.  And for that poor first year teacher; all of the confidence gained through March was gone.  

Great teachers find ways to reach kids.  It’s personal, a one-on-one outreach to each of the one hundred and fifty in their classrooms.  Great teachers watch their kids come through the door, and know, just from the face, the walk, and the look, what’s going on.  They know it’s time to reach out and ask, “What’s up”?  They even know when it’s time to leave that kid alone for the day, let him or her “slide” for this class.

But the classroom door and the visual check are gone.  If a kid comes in without a pencil, a good teacher makes sure she has one.  If a kid fails to sign onto their computer, “skips digital school,” it’s much harder to make that intervention.  The linkage over the Internet is tenuous, ethereal, and all the visual and emotional cues a teacher depends on are gone.

First Year

Everyone is a first year teacher right now.  All of the planning and experience they depended on are gone.  And even more importantly, many of the things that made them great teachers are gone as well, cut off with the loss of direct personal contact.  

So the great teachers are going back to the beginning, erasing the chalkboard of their experience and writing in new lesson plans.  They are searching for ways to reach their students, even the ones who fail to “log-in”.  Yes, they’re teaching in their pajamas, and even attending staff meetings without pants on.  But they are still doing everything they can to find that connection, to motivate “their kids” to learn.  And they’re doing even more, using their digital “classrooms” and assignments to learn how those kids are doing, worrying as much about their students’ isolation as the are the completed assignments.

It’s that  “first year” all over again.  It’s all new:  all on the job training.  But as I listen into the meetings, and as a “sub” watch what these “pros” are getting done – I know one thing for sure.  They’re doing the job.

Facebook

The cold hand of Brad Parscale, social media guru and manager of the Trump campaign, is all over the Internet.  On Twitter, and particularly on Facebook, he is pushing the Trump narrative. 

Here’s my Facebook “feed” first thing on Saturday morning.

1. “Commonwealth of Virginia now says it’s not constitutional to make someone have an ID to vote.  I need an ID to get on a plane, buy guns, alcohol and cigarettes, but not to vote.”
2. “China made the corona-virus as paybacks for Trump taking a strong stand against them after the last Presidents have let China walk all over us.”
3. “Why are people ‘implementing’ voter fraud? If we can shop in grocery stores right now, we can go to the polls in November.”
4. “COVID death rate is significantly LOWER than reported.”
5. An image of Trump – he can rebuild our country – an image of Pelosi in Nazi SS Uniform  – Minister of Propaganda
6. Meme – Let me get this straight – you are hiding from the virus now, but in a few months you’ll let them inject you with it.
7. How to Legally Decline a Vaccine – a list.

Strategy

The new COVID-19 strategy marks a huge change for the Trump campaign.  Before the virus hit, the goal was to make Joe Biden look as “bad” as Trump.  It was the tactic that led to impeachment, with Trump willing to risk his Presidency to push Ukraine to investigate Biden.  That plan still has a little life; Attorney General Bill Barr and the Senator Ron Johnson haven’t quite given up on trashing Biden’s reputation.  

And, of course, the President could have run on the best Dow Jones Average in history.  The Trump campaign depended on the old James Carville phrase for the Bill Clinton strategy: “it’s the economy stupid”.  But COVID took care of that.  The Dow fell 10,000 points.  Even with a mild recovery, with the Dow back up 4,000, it’s not the glistening achievement Trump depended on.  And an unemployment rate zooming up to near twenty percent makes Trump vulnerable to “it’s the economy, stupid”.

COVID has changed everything.  Getting the economy back on track by Labor Day is a Trump essential.  To do that, people have to “go back” to their old lives. The restaurants have to be crowded, car dealerships flush with sales, planes full of tourists.  That won’t happen overnight, Trump needs the economy to “re-open” by June to even have a shot at Labor Day.

Nonfeasance

To get that done, states have to drop their “shelter-in-place” orders, and let business resume again.  But there’s one problem:  the only scientific evidence we have is that the shelter-in-place orders are only way to keep the virus in some kind of check.  South Dakota shows what happens without any restrictions. They had a 12% increase in cases, the highest in the nation.  

If the President steps forward and demands states relax restrictions and the infection rates soars, his elections chances will plummet.  If the President doesn’t get the economy going again, his chances will still fall.  How can he avoid both?

There is a series of legal terms:  malfeasance, misfeasance, and nonfeasance.  Malfeasance is to intentionally do something illegal while holding office.  Misfeasance is to do something wrong, but not necessarily intentional.  Nonfeasance is to fail to act, when an action is required.  The President has a “nonfeasance” position regarding US actions during the crisis.

Strong Leaders

He has claimed the power to deal with the crisis, but then sidestepped action and allowed state governors to determine individual responses.  There are governors like Cuomo in New York, Inslee in Washington, Whitmer in Michigan and Newsome in California who have been aggressive in controlling their states and demanding more national action.  We also have governors like DeWine in Ohio, who is quietly taking the necessary actions to protect his constituents, but avoiding political fights with Washington.  And then, there are governors like DeSantis in Florida and Noem in South Dakota who seem unable to respond to their state’s needs.

Now that those governors are dealing with the problem, the President is quietly undercutting them.  He publicly said that, “…some governors are getting carried away.” His Twitter feed called for citizens to  “liberate” Virginia, Minnesota and Michigan, encouraging armed protests against state interventions.  And he demands that states re-open, but steps back and fails to take responsibility for the viral consequences.

All Credit, No Blame

The Trump campaign strategy is to claim all the credit, and take none of the blame.  If governors find they cannot “open” their states without fanning the flames of COVID-19, it’s their fault.  If they can, it’s Trump’s success.

And the Trump campaign continues their same old plan:  destroy trust in American institutions, the press, the courts, and most importantly, the non-partisan structures of government.  The “deep-state” attack continues, not just against the intelligence agencies, but now against those departments we depend on to protect our health.  It was no mistake that Trump’s twitter repeated a call to “fire Fauci”, and that his media followers at OANN and FOX have continually attacked the creditability of government scientists. 

And when Trump voters don’t like what the scientists say as they stand on the podium beside the President, then the Trump message on social media is go ahead and ignore them.  It’s a plan to win the election, even if it will assuredly cost thousands of vulnerable lives. 

And what about Joe Biden?  He’s presenting a clear Presidential strategy to deal with the crisis, detailed and straightforward.   So the Trump campaign must somehow blame the Biden as part of the Obama administration, and now seems to be trying to tie Biden to China.  

This election should be about competence and accountability.  If it is, then Donald Trump will be a one-term president.  He’s depending on the cold hand of Brad Parscale to change the narrative, and alter the outcome.  After his successes in 2016, nothing can be taken for granted.

Our Crisis

The United States is in crisis, an all-encompassing situation resembling the Great Depression, or World War II.  Over half a million Americans are known to have COVID-19, perhaps millions more were infected, and don’t know it.  Over 28,000 are known to have died from the disease.  

But, because we haven’t developed the testing capacity to know, many more have died from COVID-19, but are listed as dying from heart attacks, or pneumonia, or simply “old age”.  The disease is burning through nursing homes and assisted living centers.  For many there, the only “remedy” given is to sign a “DNR”, a do-not-resuscitate order.  Hospice care may be their only medical treatment. To quote an old Republican, “We don’t know what we don’t know”.

The economy of the United States is literally closed.  Twenty-two million Americans are seeking unemployment benefits.  Economists estimate that the unemployment rate, at three percent as recently as February, will climb to twenty percent this month.  Many are clamoring to “re-open” the economy, regardless of the health consequences.  They say that the impact of keeping the economy closed weighs greater than the deaths that opening it may cause.  

Logic of Death

It’s a cold-blooded logic, a willingness to sacrifice others to end personal economic suffering.  Of course it’s wrong, but more importantly, it’s Un-American.  We cannot, or at the least, we must not, build a new economy on the deaths of the old, and the sick, and the unlucky.  What will our children say – thanks for starting the economy and sacrificing grandma and grandpa?  We must not climb on the bodies of those dead to end our financial distress and our discomfort with social distancing.  

There are solutions.  Many of the state Governors are working on them, developing how to weather the pandemic, and then re-open their businesses.  Those Governors unanimously are calling for a strategy of containment:  testing for the disease, quarantining the infected, and allowing those that are immune or disease free to go forward.   Testing and tracing is the answer for all, except the President of the United States.

Distract and Deflect

The President is bent on distracting the nation from that particular subject, testing.  On Monday he spent hours attacking the media.   Tuesday in the Rose Garden, he tried to place blame for the pandemic on the World Health Organization.  On Wednesday, shivering back outdoors, he blamed Senate Democrats for not approving his personnel requests, and threatened a Constitutional crisis with the Legislative branch.  As if anyone believes having an acting director of the Voice of America is preventing him from dealing with the crisis.

We know that Mr. Trump was let down by many of his “friends” in the business community.  The top executives the Administration who were included as part of the “start-up committee” didn’t know that they were invited, and many don’t want to join in.  And of the ones who are willing to participate, many are warning that a start-up followed by a shutdown because of a rise in infection is worse than no start-up at all.   Most Governors are saying the same thing:  too soon is worse than waiting.

So Trump picks a fight with three “popular” targets:  the New York Times, the World Health Organization, and, of course, the Democrats in the Senate.  All familiar targets, and all far off the point of what our nation needs to do now.

Solutions not Distractions

We have the technology to make all of this work.  Just as we built thousands of ventilators in weeks, we could do the same with blood testing machines.  And while in the “old days” health “detectives” had to do contact tracing, we can now do it through technology.  Yes, the health department would have to access your cell phone, and THEY would know if you had COVID, or contacted someone who did.  “BIG BROTHER IS NOW” the civil libertarians cry out, and I get their concern.

But we allow Facebook, and Google, and hundreds of other private businesses access to all of our personal concerns.  Kroger knows when I walk in the store, they tell me on my phone.  Facebook sends me ads for men’s clothing and used RV’s.  Google has my online sales records.  If we are giving all that information to them for marketing purposes, why in the world wouldn’t we give the Health Department access to our COVID-19 status?  If that’s what it takes to control this pandemic, it’s worth the “risk”.

Should we as a nation fail to test and contain, then we face a stark choice.  If we open, we make the immoral choice of sacrificing others for our financial wellbeing.  Or we stay closed, socially distanced, until we have a vaccine. 

 Then the “anti-vaxxers” can have their crazy say.

The Rose Garden

The White House Rose Garden has been a place of ultimate success.  Kennedy welcomed Alan Shepard, John Glenn and the rest of the Mercury astronauts there.  Richard Nixon’s daughter was married there. It was there that Jimmy Carter shook hands with Begin and Sadat after the Camp David Accords were signed.  President Obama trumpeted the Affordable Care Act there, and announced the recovery of an American soldier captured in Afghanistan.

So the Rose Garden is a special place for the Presidency.  And I have to admit; President Trump’s use of the Rose Garden is jarring to me even on a good day.  I know I carry the grudge, the resentment of his presence in the White House in any shape.  But his use of the Rose Garden, the place where John-John played, always seems to be a special form of defilement.

In the Times

Yesterday, President Trump used the COVID-19 crisis to launch a campaign attack against his favorite target:  the New York Times.  Not only did he literally rant for more than an hour against the Times and the rest of the Media from the podium, he even presumed that the nation should watch a televised campaign advertisement while we waited for real information on the crisis.  

He also used Dr. Anthony Fauci to “lure” us into the briefing.  Fauci went on early, telling us of his “regret” at answering a hypothetical question from that other archenemy of the President, CNN.  Fauci’s thinking with that statement is pretty clear: he used “…all his well-earned politesse…*”.  What he’s doing now is so much more important than Trumpian politics.  Fauci swallowed his honest words in order to stay on the job.  He knows the Nation needs him there, and he’s right.

We have known for a while that the President’s “daily briefs” have taken the place of the Trump campaign rallies.  He can’t go out on the road, but he can captivate millions of Americans, sheltering in place in their homes, by promising them information about the crisis, and the government’s efforts to stop the virus.  As those briefings have continued, we have heard less and less substantive information from him, just a repetition of the same litany, with various compliments to those who praise him, and insults to those who don’t.  

The Daily Disaster

 And yet we watch.  Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci have serious things to say, and even Vice President Pence shows an understanding of the seriousness of the moment.  The President does not.  He serves as what might be called “entertainment”, kind of like watching that NASCAR racer flip over and over at the finish of the Daytona 500 in what seems like decades ago (but was only February).

Monday’s wreck was pretty amazing.   Not only did he, without any regard for legality, use a government employee produced campaign video to broadcast on national free media, but he then claimed that as President, he has virtually “unlimited power” to open the country, regardless of what the state governors say.

This is from a man who has hidden behind an antiquated version of  “states’ rights Federalism” to dodge responsibility for any of the tough decisions in this crisis.  The President “let the Governors” take responsibility for closing down their states, and more importantly, has provided cover for those governors who have failed to do so.  Looming catastrophes in Florida and South Dakota are only two examples of where the President failed to take action.

It’s the Election, Stupid

But now, when the country is tiring of “social distancing” and “sheltering in place”, it’s the President who wants to take responsibility for “lifting the quarantine”.  That he might also be taking responsibility for resurgence of the corona-virus, and the need for those government body bags, is a calculated risk.  It’s all about the election.  Either he gets the economy back before Labor Day, or face overwhelming defeat.

By the way, looking at the Wisconsin results from last week, in an election done literally under the “shadow of death;” Republicans didn’t fare well.  A “liberal” Democrat defeated a Republican State Supreme Court member, one endorsed strongly by Trump.  That does not bode well for the President in that pivotal electoral state for November.

So today we wait, watching the reporters seated randomly in the Garden, looking like students serving time in in-school suspension.  The Rose Garden still looks lovely, a place of success and tranquility.  The President hasn’t come out.

Maybe it will rain.

Postscript

It didn’t rain, and the President showed up.  He found a new scapegoat – the World Health Organization.  The President got to praise half a hundred American businesses.  And he backed away from his “Kingship” – the Governors will make the call on what their states do.  

Testing is his bête noire.  If he had tested at the beginning, back in January and February, we could have contained the virus.  We did not – and because of that, the President won’t take on testing now.  He says – it’s the States’ problem. 

But the roses are still lovely.

*Postscript – Script

Please allow me to introduce myself, I’m a man of wealth and taste…

Use all your well earned politesse, our I’ll lay your soul to waste –

Sympathy for the Devil – The Rolling Stones – “Hoo – Hoo”

Barn Doors

There’s an old “country” expression, it’s no good closing the barn door after the horses are out”.  The United States original strategy in dealing with the Corona-Virus was “closing the barn door”.  We tried to close our borders and stop travel from China and ultimately Europe to prevent the COVID-19 virus from getting here.  But, like the proverbial “barn door” it was too late.  The virus, perhaps in non-symptomatic travellers, was already here.

Why didn’t we know that?  Epidemiologists will tell you, if you can’t “close the barn door,” then the next step is containing the contagion.  Containment is simple:  you test until you find the infected, you contain (quarantine) those who are positive, and you trace all of their contacts.  Then you test them, and go through the entire process again.

The key to that is you have to have a test.  If you can’t test, then you are just guessing; guessing that flu-like symptoms are in fact COVID-19, and hoping that everyone who might be asymptomatic recognize they have been contacted.  If this sounds like a lot of maybes and “could be’s” it is.  The formula is simple: if you can’t test, then you don’t know.  If you don’t know, you can’t contain.

Mitigation

So what’s the third step?  You’re living it:  social isolation to slow the spread of the disease, keeping the volume down (mitigating) so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed with patients.  COVID-19 can kill people, even those who don’t fit the age, immunity or underlying issues profile.  But many of those who might die could be saved, as long as there is hospital space, equipment and care available.   Slowing the spread, or colloquially “flattening the curve” saves those lives.

There was an alternative:  let COVID-19 “burn through” our society.  Eighty percent are likely to survive without serious consequences.  Out of the rest, many will be hospitalized, and because of the numbers crowding in, many will die.  But by letting it burn through, ultimately a large percentage of the population will have had the disease, and therefore be, at least temporarily, immune.  Then we don’t have to “social distance”, our society can go on about our economic life.  We will have “herd immunity”.  But many people will die who didn’t have to die:  they would have been sacrificed “for the common good,” the good of “the herd;” whatever that means.

Of course all bets are off when there’s a vaccine, but that’s still twelve to eighteen months away.  So whatever we’re doing, keep in mind that it isn’t forever.  An effective vaccine and we can have herd immunity, and be literally “back in the ballgame”. 

Testing –Testing –Testing

But many aren’t willing to wait for eighteen months to start life back up again.  Politically the President can’t stand for it.  He has to prove that our current economic and medical condition isn’t anything more than a temporary set back.  If he is unable show that, it’s unlikely there will be a second Trump term.  That’s a huge consideration in what decisions the President will make.

Now you could do this, by going back to step two, containment.  You have a cadre of folks who have had COVID-19, but we don’t know who they are.  Test them, and find out.  We have a group who clearly have had the disease and survived.  Certify them, and let them out.  Those that are still at risk, keep them “distanced”.  But we can’t do this by guessing, or taking temperatures at the front door of the school, or by listening for dry coughs and seeing if you can wake up and smell the coffee.  If we don’t test, then we are effectively going to a “burn through” strategy.

So “opening up” our economy without a testing regimen in place is simply “rolling the dice” and waiting for the “burn through” to start.  Then, it’s social distancing all over again.  That is, except for the bodies sacrificed so that we can say we “opened up”.  

So, now that we are building hundreds of thousands of ventilators and millions of gloves and PPE, why aren’t we producing the machines to test the hundreds of millions in our country?  We literally put “a man on the moon” and can watch a movie or do the quadratic equation on a box in our pocket:  we surely can build testing machines that can test many millions.

Why Not Test

But if you build all those testing machines, isn’t that admitting that we should have tested in the first place?  By making testing the strategy, is this an admission that we missed the opportunity to contain COVID-19 in the beginning?  And if this is that admission, then the ultimate question is:  who’s to blame?

President Trump is not interested in that conversation.  He’s not interested in testing, because it raises the question of his original response to the pandemic.  And that response is a campaign issue:  the question of the Presidential competency in the face of an existential crisis. 

But it shouldn’t really matter.  This isn’t about the election; who will be the President come November. This is all about May 1^st, three weeks from now, and the risks we are all assuming if we “open up” without the knowledge of who is sick, who is immune, and who is at risk.  If we don’t test, we know what the result will be.  We would be making a sure bet on losing lives, maybe others, maybe our own.  Either way, it’s a sure loser.