Ukraine and America

Polling

President Biden had a “good” last week.  He made a secret trip to Kyiv, followed by a Roosevelt-like speech in Poland. He called on the world to defend democracy in Ukraine.  It all showed a President at the height of his powers in foreign policy, standing up for principle and justice against a foreign aggressor.  The European nations applauded his address. And the world watched Biden paying tribute to the fallen Ukrainian warriors alongside President Zelenskyy at the Kyiv memorial, as air raid sirens sounding once again in the capitol. 

But he returned to the United States to an odd poll.  According to an NBC News survey, Americans are split about fifty-fifty about whether to give more weapons to Ukraine (NBC).  That’s hard to imagine; even most Republican leaders are in favor of continuing to support Zelenskyy.  In fact, they are busy challenging President Biden to send even more aid to Ukraine.  They want US fighter jets, F-16’s, sent to defend the nation.

The Rump

There is a rump caucus  (properly positioned, I might add – in the rump) of the Republican Party that differs. They are few in leadership, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, but they are amplified by Fox Commentators Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard.  They  take the Russian view of the Ukraine invasion, excusing Russian aggression because “…they had legitimate” security concerns.  And their basic point is; we just shouldn’t care about what’s happening in Ukraine.  It’s a waste of money.

Even Florida Governor Ron DeSantis determined that the Russians don’t represent a security threat to NATO’s Eastern European partners.  That despite Putin ally and former Russian President Medvedev threatening to “push back” the borders of Poland and other NATO states in a speech last week (Reuters).  It’s hard to see how influential the “rumps” are.  Events in Ukraine seem very cut and dried, and it takes an inordinate amount of mainstream media skepticism to believe that “everything” we see about Ukraine is a “woke lie”.   

My point is that I don’t believe the polling.  I just don’t think most Americans believe that we should leave Ukraine high and dry, including most folks who would align themselves with Donald Trump.  I don’t believe they are taken in by the Russian propaganda that Tucker and Tulsi are spouting, or the nonsense said by Greene on the floor of the House.

Russian Influence

So let’s talk about the Russian influence in the United States.  

We discovered after the 2016 election that the Russians had outsized influence on the United States through social media.  Throughout all the investigations;  Muller, Manafort, the first Trump impeachment and Giuliani’s flailing efforts in Ukraine:  we’ve discovered the incredible influence of Russian money on the American political system.  It even reached into the FBI, and the New York chief of counter-intelligence corrupted by Oleg Deripaska, the same Putin ally who paid Paul Manafort (NPR).

So there is the obvious question:  is Russian money still influencing American politics?  Is that driving the position of the “far-right” Republicans and their Fox allies?   What we do know for sure, that the MAGA Republicans have an outsized influence on the Republican Party primaries, and therefore on the entire political process.  Many of the prospective Republican candidates for President are trying to gain traction with Trump voters, hoping that Trump himself will somehow decide not to run for the 2024 nomination.  The battle to inherit those voters is all dependent on what the former President decides.

Weapons to Use

What about the other side with the Republicans (and some Democrats), demanding that F-16’s and M1 Abrams Tanks immediately arrive in Ukraine?  The Abrams are ultimately on the way, but the F-16’s remain on hold.  Both of those most advanced weapons systems require intense and lengthy training.  The F-16’s, for example, require a bare minimum of nine months training, even for experienced combat pilots (Luke AFB).  There is no public evidence that Ukrainian pilots are already enrolled in that training, though it’s possible that they are.  Fifty Ukrainian pilots have already been identified for it.

The M1 Abrams tank takes months to master as well – even for seasoned tankers.

The US will supply the tanks and probably the planes as well.  But even better, the US is enabling Ukraine to get German Leopard Tanks and the more familiar MIG 29 and SU 24 Fighters from former Soviet countries now in NATO.  The Ukrainian forces already know how to operate those systems, and they will have an immediate impact on the battlefield.

Biden’s War

The drumbeat in the American media is already beginning:  this is Biden’s War.  And the media is also raising the pressure – will Americans support Biden even if this war drags on through the 2024 Presidential campaign?  

My bet is that America will.  Not only are the Ukrainians impressive on the battlefield, but also in the electronic “warfare” of social media.  And besides all of that – they are in the right in their battle with Russia, and Russia is in the wrong.  I believe most Americans see that, and will stand beside them until the end.  And they’ll stand beside the President’s support as well.

Ukraine Crisis Essays

Author: Marty Dahlman

I'm Marty Dahlman. After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! I've also spent a lot of time in politics, working campaigns from local school elections to Presidential campaigns.

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