Winning in Ohio

Powerball

$749 million dollars is a lot of money.   When the Powerball jackpot reached that amount, there were various articles about how to spend the winnings.  With the Powerball, about half would go to taxes.  That leaves $324 million left to spend – still not bad.  Financial advisors suggest the winner should spend 10%, $32 million, on whatever they might want.  That’s to get the “I WON!!” pressure off.  Maybe buy a new house, or car; an island in the Caribbean (not Epstein’s), or a mountain in Western Colorado.  Or build the local high school an indoor track facility.  

Then stash the remainder in investments to take care of finances for the rest of your life.   That’s $290 million invested safely, earning 5% a year.  The amount would generate $14.5 million a year, before taxes (again).  After paying about another $4 million in taxes, you’re left to live on $10 million a year.  I bet I could do that.

Media Spending

But this isn’t about winning the Powerball, or even what I would do with the $32 million “spending money” (though that’s a fun topic!).  It’s about the election of 2026 here in Ohio.  Political campaigns buy “time” on broadcast and media channels in advance of the campaign season to guarantee they have the spots.  They “fill in the blanks” with ads later on.  And here in Ohio, there’s a pivotal Senate race (Sherrod Brown -D v John Husted- R), and a hotly contested Gubernatorial race (Vivek Ramaswamy – R v Amy Acton – D). The time is already committed.  And you guessed it:  $749 million dollars is how much it costs (Dispatch).

That’s up from the original projection of $440 million.  What happened?  Well the National climate changed:  Trump’s approval rating dropped, with 35% approving and 61% disapproving (Newsweek).  And the increased costs of gas, food and consumer goods, all made life tougher, not only for regular citizens, but for Republicans trying to run on the how they governed.  And finally, the constant drip of failed Federal government over-reach, from ICE to the Reflecting Pool, soured Americans’ view.

So what were nearly guaranteed wins in “Red” Ohio for Husted and Ramaswamy, turned into real races.  Both Democrats are within the margin of error, with some polls showing them in the lead.  So both sides, Republican and Democrats, started pouring more money into the campaigns.

Pox or Diarrhea

In the “good old days”, political campaigns started the day after Labor Day.  That’s September 8^th this year.  But the “good old days” are long gone, and the media wars have already begun.  Brown has ads out tying Husted to “big energy”.  Ramaswamy is flooding the media with spots that blame Acton for everything that happened during the pandemic.  After all, she was the Public Health Director for Republican Governor Mike DeWine during that time.  She followed the Trump era guidelines, including the original “close downs” to try to prevent the spread of Covid.  And, of course, there were the dreaded “MASKS”, the cloth mouth coverings that became the cause celeb of the right:  “How dare they tell me to cover my mouth!!!!”

And Husted, well he’s trying the old strategy of tying Brown to Joe Biden.  

It’s July, and there’s plenty of real news to dominate the airwaves (and streaming cables).  Local headlines are focused on sixteen children rescued from a horrific home in Vinton County, and the new virus that gives the victims “explosive diarrhea” (WCMH).  But the real explosion is coming:  the explosion of ads claiming every candidate is horrible.  It’s “negative advertising”, and designed to keep people from coming out to vote.  The design is to suppress the vote, to make voters say “a pox (or diarrhea virus) on both your houses”.  

Street Money

Driving down the turnout here in Ohio is considered an advantage to Republicans.  In the more recent Presidential elections, Biden got 45% of the vote and Harris 43%.  So any Democrat has an uphill battle from the start.  

Democratic campaigns are aware of this.  And they are aware of the overwhelming boredom created by one campaign ad after another, until everyone is jaded with all the candidates.  The one area that Democrats are supposed to be better than Republicans is “street money”.  While that sounds like something that’s illegal, “street money” is really just spending money on efforts to get voters to go to the polls.  “Street money” is spent on organizing folks to knock on doors, encourage Democratic voters to show up, and let them know that as difficult as Ohio has made it to vote (we have the strictest voting laws in the country), they can still do it.

I hope they saved some money for that.  Otherwise, it’s not likely they’ll get the chance to say,  “WE WON”.