As Ohio Goes…
It was 2004. George W Bush was President. The controversy of the 2000 Presidential election, decided not by the American people, but by a five to four partisan vote of the US Supreme Court, was fresh. And after that crisis, there was the attack on 9-11, war in Afghanistan, and a “war of choice” in Iraq. The United States attacked with, as Vice President Cheney often said, “shock and awe”. Iraqi defeat was swift, then Americans turned the country upside down looking for Saddam Hussein and nuclear bombs. We found the former, and he was soon executed. But the latter never existed. The prime reason for invasion, nuclear weapons, was a fraud.
So in the election of 2004, Bush wasn’t a “sure thing”, despite his 9-11 leadership. And one of the critical states for Bush to win was the then swing-state, Ohio. “As Ohio goes, so goes the Nation”; just twenty years ago Ohio was generally one of the deciding factors in Presidential outcomes.
Slam-Dunk
Ohio’s political divisions are pretty clear. There are the Democratic strongholds – the cities in the Northeast corner, Cleveland, Akron and Youngstown. There are the less assured Democratic areas: the urban centers of Columbus, Toledo, Dayton and Cincinnati, surrounded by heavily Republican suburbs. (In more recent times, some of those suburbs are trending “purple” rather than “red”, but not in 2004). And then there’s the rest of the state (except, of course, for Athens) either Republican farmers, or the Appalachian southeast quarter, once Democratic, but now more Republican.
In the final analysis, Ohio was then, and still is, an almost even split. Which party gains control depends entirely in who turns out to cast their ballots. In 2004, the Secretary of State was Ken Blackwell, a Cincinnati Republican. His strategy: put an issue on the ballot that would drive Republicans to the polls, even if the Bush record didn’t.
The issue was “simple” back in 2004. It made the state controlled power of marriage available to only “a man and a woman”, outlawing gay marriage in the state. And while America has dramatically changed in the past twenty-two years, at the time banning same-sex marriage was a “slam-dunk” proposal, guaranteed to bring Republicans out to vote. While they were there, they chose George W Bush for President.
Bush won over Democrat John Kerry by 2%, and Ohio’s electoral votes put him in the White House for four more years.
Thanks Trump
Since 2004, Ohio has been sliced and diced by re-districting. Republicans have assured a massive majority in the State Legislatures. And the Democratic Party has been enfeebled; without money, or candidates, or the spirit to even make a good fight in most statewide races.
But it’s 2026, a prime moment for a Democratic resurgence in the state. President Trump is trapped in the “forever war” he promised not to fight. Gas prices, a huge issue in a state with little public transportation outside the urban centers, are higher than when Republicans were putting stickers on the pumps saying “Thanks Joe Biden”. (As the cost approached $5 a gallon, I saw some “Thanks Trump” stickers appear!!). Trump’s approval rating has never been lower.
While the legislative districts are drawn prohibitively to Republican specifications, statewide Democratic candidates have a real chance. Republican John Husted was appointed to his US Senate seat, and is facing a well-financed challenge from former Senator Sherrod Brown. And the improbable Amy Acton is running a strong Democratic race for governor, against billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy. Neither Ramaswamy or Husted are the kind of candidates that will drive Republicans to the polls. And, here in Ohio and in the nation, Trump is reason enough for Democrats to come out and make their votes heard.
The Blackwell Maneuver
So Republicans are trying to replicate Blackwell’s strategy: find a Constitutional issue that will bring their voters to the polls. And they think they have it: Picture ID’s. Yesterday the state legislature passed a resolution enshrining a picture ID requirement for voting into the state constitution. It will be on the November ballot.
Now, Ohio has some of the highest standards for voting in the Nation already. And a picture ID has been a part of those standards for a number of years. So, like much of what this current legislature does, they are solving a problem that doesn’t actually exist. But what they are really doing is searching for that issue that will get voters to the polls, when their candidates aren’t likely to do so. This is their “Blackwell maneuver”.
You can hear the campaign now: “Democrats want to cheat, that’s why they are against picture ID’s. Vote for election integrity”.
To be frank, this isn’t a strongly felt cultural issue. If that’s the best Republicans got, then Democrats really do have a good shot at winning in November. Most Ohioans will scratch their heads, and say, “We already do that. There’s no need to rush to the polls to protect what we already have.”
Rest assured, Republicans will do everything possible; legal, questionable, and even beyond the law, to maintain power in Ohio. But in today’s political climate, even that might not be enough. Picture ID surely won’t be the “magic motivator” of the Republican vote.
