Misunderstood
Trump’s “team” is suffering from a simple misunderstanding. They think in global, strategic terms: number of weapons, power of bombs, percentage of destruction. In their mind, any “rational” Nation would cower when faced with the ultimate might of the United States, three Carrier Groups, thousands of aircraft, tens of thousands of troops ready to put “boots on the ground”. And, frankly, to most Americans that makes sense too. Don’t mess with the USA!!!
After all, we grew up in a society that prizes money and power. We did learn from a young age to admire those who, as the saying goes, “speaks truth to power”. But we also were very aware of the consequences of such actions. Those courageous folks were often cut off from economic and social support, and seen as “odd” or even “crazy”. Americans understand power, and most of us, really all of us, pick our battles. We go along with a lot, and only fight when there is no other choice, morally or physically. (Need an example: look at the Ohio State Legislature, which regularly ignores the voted “will” of the people. Sure it’s annoying, but the reality of Ohio is that few stand up against this blatant abuse of power).
That’s America’s way of thinking about power. But just because “we” think that way, it doesn’t mean the rest of the world does. And that’s the fatal flaw in the Trump plan in Iran.
Vietnam
Back in the 1960’s, America was fighting a war in Vietnam. The power “balance” was incredibly lopsided. The American military in its full might, versus the Viet Cong. US soldiers, trained and equipped with the best armaments, versus men in black pajamas and sandals. But, year after year, the US was unable to claim “victory”. Instead, we kept track of the “body count”; how many Viet Cong were killed. By the late 1960’s, it became clear. Either the Viet Cong were completed decimated, and someone else was fighting in their place; or the “body count” was a lie.
John F Kennedy in his first inaugural speech, promised to “…(P)ay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship…to assure the survival and success of liberty.” But Vietnam taught us a different lesson. THEY were willing to bear any burden, not us. THEY were willing to pay any price, not us. In Vietnam, THEY would accept any sacrifice to sustain their fight. It was the United States that wasn’t. It took us fifteen years to figure it out.
In Afghanistan we had to learn that lesson all over again. The power was so unbalanced, the most modern military in history versus Mujahedeen with rifles and improvised explosive devices. But we still failed in the end. It “just” took twenty years to learn that time.
Stone Age
So here we are, preparing to “bomb Iran back into the Stone Age”. America just spent nearly half a Billion dollars to rescue the two-man crew of a F-15 fighter from capture. And that’s exactly what Americans want our military to do: “No one left behind”. They are our sons, daughters, and friends: we will pay any price to get them safe.
But the leaders of Iran are not us. They, clearly, are willing to accept any sacrifice. The US and Israel takes great pride in destroying the leadership of Iran, but, to steal a phrase from the Ohio State Football team, for Iran it’s just “the next man up”. The Iranian Intelligence Chief was killed yesterday, there’s a new man in his place today, carrying on with the work. The Ayatollah was killed in the first wave of bombings, his son is now in charge, and even more intransigent than his father.
By the way, the “bomb them back to the Stone Age” phrase came from Air Force General Curtis LeMay, the “father” of America’s strategic bombing forces. It was LeMay who led the massive bombing effort on Japan in World War II, attacks that burned Tokyo, and culminated in the only time in history atomic weapons were used. LeMay thought that’s what we should do to Vietnam. In fact, more bombs were dropped by the US in Vietnam than were dropped by both sides in World War II. But, in the end, Americans left, and the Vietnamese Communists won.
World Poker
We are on the cusp of another war defined by asymmetry. The United States has all the “cards” and all the “chips”. Yet somehow, Iran plays on. We can take the next step; Trump can order our forces to go “all in” against Iranian infrastructure. And clearly we will be successful, destroying their power plants, bridges, hospitals and schools. But all of that will not force Iran to sue for peace. It will cause them to double-down on their willingness to sacrifice, and unify their people behind their theocratic leadership.
We will win the war of “body-count”. But we, in the end, will not “pay any price” for Iran. They know it. The American people know it. The question is: does Donald Trump know it?
