Greatest in History
In the history of the world, the United States has the most powerful military. Aside from nuclear weapons, literally capable of destroying the world (as we know it), the American military is, without doubt, the strongest. The United States has the greatest Air Force, with 13,000 aircraft. That’s larger than the next five countries combined. And while technically China has more Naval ships, the US has eleven aircraft carriers, capable of projecting US military might anywhere and everywhere in the world.
The United States has the third largest Army in the world, but in terms of equipment and in money spent, the US Army is the most powerful. But all of this power, all of this money available (the US spent $11.3 Billion in the first week of the War on Iran), has led American planners to a massive flaw. When planners “match” the US military against Iran, it’s clear that the Iranians cannot compete. Sure, with nuclear weapons, the United States could destroy Iran. But we are not, I hope, prepared to level a nation.
Conventional War
Certainly we are destroying the Iranian military capability. Their air force, mostly based on 1970’s aircraft, is grounded. Their missiles are still launched, but each launching puts the launch site in grave danger of destruction. And we are systematically destroying their Navy. An American submarine sunk an Iranian frigate by torpedo, the first time since World War II. Iran cannot and will not fight the United States on our terms. They know as well as we do, that they cannot win that battle.
We looked at the first weeks of this war, and it seemed like Iran was absolutely overwhelmed. Their military infrastructure was decimated. Their leadership was decapitated, with even the Ayatollah, their religious and political leader, killed. There seemed to be no way that Iran could even organize a resistance, much less fight back. The United States and Israel launched a massive and high tech attack, the “model” of a modern military action.
Iran tried to attack back on those terms. They launched missiles against Israel and US bases in the Middle East. American soldiers were killed and wounded, as were Israelis. But those casualties were small compared to the thousands killed in Iran. And with total air superiority over Iran today, the US and Israelis attack planes are roaming the skies, looking for targets.
Change in Strategy
So Iran is fighting an asymmetric war, not a “tit for tat” war.
They aren’t attacking the US aircraft carriers. They are attacking the civilian oil tankers trying to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz, where twenty percent of the world’s oil transits from the Middle East. Their attacks, launched by small boats or “suicide drones” or shoulder mounted rockets, have virtually stopped the world’s oil trade there. Crude oil prices are near $100 a barrel, thirty percent higher than before the war began. The Iranians are striking American pocketbooks, with gas up fifteen percent at the pump.
And the Middle East oil stoppage generates unintended consequences. It’s made Russian energy more profitable, providing greater capital for Putin to continue to wage his war against Ukraine. It has actually created more profit for Iran, who are able to get their oil out of the Strait. Since that oil is headed to China, stopping or destroying those oil tankers would create a perilous world situation with the second most powerful military in the world.
Who’s the Target?
Iran continues to lead the world in military drone technology (along with Ukraine). Drones are small, difficult to detect, easily launched and essentially disposable. Drone attacks continue in the Middle East, still in such numbers that even if 90% of the drones are stopped, the 10% remaining can cause serious damage. And Iran isn’t necessarily targeting military bases, they are reaching out to diplomatic facilities, businesses, and even the US CIA station in Saudi Arabia. (Russia, anxious to have this war continue, is rumored to be providing targeting intelligence to the Iranians).
Iran has more asymmetric actions available. Iran is the world center for what we would call terrorist activities. They sponsor several terrorist groups aimed at Israel, including Hamas and Hezbollah. And undoubtedly, Iran has operatives in the United States, awaiting instruction to attack “soft targets” like urban transportation, sporting events, St. Patrick’s Day parades and the like. Add that, to the massive turnover in the US agencies responsible for protecting the “homeland”, the FBI, and Homeland Security: the US may be particularly vulnerable to these kinds of attack.
Iran also is capable of launching cyber-attacks, both against public and private agencies. Already the medical device company Stryker, had its communications cut by a probable Iranian action. How vulnerable is our infrastructure to similar attacks, which could disrupt domestic life here in the United States?
Iran won’t “win” a war with the United States. But we can expect that they won’t give in either, and they won’t fight “fair” in US terms. We can expect that they will use all of the tools at their disposal. And the targets are likely to be here in the US, rather than in the Middle East.
