Dam Bills
It seemed like a “no-brainer” to Republicans in Congress. The “battle” over health-care was already won. Cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act were “in stone” in the “Big Beautiful Bill”. The huge savings, over $1.4 Trillion, would go to the Republican cornerstone policy, reducing taxes. Those reductions would be negligible for lower income families, but for those in the billionaire and multi-millionaire class, it’s big bucks.
But Congress has a two-part system of implementing laws. When I was teaching the process back in the “old days” of Senior Government Class, I explained it this way. To build a dam, it requires a bill to pass the House, Senate and get signed by the President. Only then would the “dam” bill become a “dam” law. But to pay for that “dam” law, there has to be a “dam money law” passed as well; an appropriation of money for the dam. It’s a two-part process.
Arcane Procedures
Republicans ran up against the budget bill (a money law), including the income tax reductions in the “Big, Beautiful, Bill”. Instead of having a whole budget battle, they simply asked for a continuing resolution of existing spending. That budget bill would just continue things as they already are, including the Big, Beautiful tax reductions, for a few months. Without passage, there is no “money law” to run the government, and most government spending and activity is shutdown.
Democrats saw a chance to exercise some real power. While the House of Representatives is a simple majority to pass a bill (Republicans have a five vote majority), in the Senate there is a process that requires sixty votes to end debate (called cloture), before a vote can be taken on the actual “bill”. There are fifty-three Republicans in the Senate, so they need seven more votes to end debate, before they can pass the continuing resolution by a simple majority vote.
Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Leader of the Senate, saw a chance to actually make a difference. He stopped the budget bill, demanding that the medical cuts of the “Big, Beautiful Bill” get put back in. How could he go wrong? Many folks will see the results of those cuts on their annual insurance cost statements, due on their kitchen table at the end of October. That is especially true for those folks on Medicaid or with Affordable Care Act insurance, who will see huge increases.
A Winning Issue
It’s a “win-win” for the Democrats. They’re fighting to keep health costs lower. If they win, and those costs stay about the same, and Democrats actually got something done for the people, even without control of the House, Senate, or the Presidency. And if they fail, then Republicans are fully responsible for the dramatic increases in costs. That will be an albatross around their neck in the 2026 Congressional elections, perhaps the key to Democrats regaining a majority in the House and maybe even the Senate.
Republicans tried to counter by mis-directing the argument to one they are much more comfortable with, undocumented migrants. Republicans are confident that attacking the undocumented is a winning strategy. They’ve committed billions of dollars to funding the ICE round-ups, and are trying to place Democrats in the position of defending folks that aren’t legally in the US and can’t vote in elections.
The problem for Republicans, is that very little government money actually goes to support undocumented migrant health. In fact, there are clear laws against doing so. So, after the first flush of “illegals getting government health insurance” passed by, most Americans understood that it was a dodge, a side issue. They sat around their kitchen tables and calculated how much more of their limited income would go to insurance costs, or worse, direct medical costs. And they don’t like it.
Boiling Frogs
So here we are. Republicans are doing the “boiling frog” routine. They are sitting in a pot of rising insurance costs, and the heat is going up. They can either find a way to jump out before the pot boils, or they can get stewed in the November 2026 elections. And Democrats can keep saying, “Well, you have all the majorities. You are in charge. You can fix all of this”. No one really is listening to the arcane mechanics of Senate cloture motions.
Politically Democrats can’t lose. But the reality of huge insurance increases for the American people will absolutely turn up the heat on the Party in control. And the deadline for many will be when the bill shows up, sometimes around November 1st. Want a guess how long the government will be shut down? The closer to the insurance bills, the more pressure to “make a deal”.
Republicans can either jump out of the pot and make a deal, or they can let the bills hit the kitchen table. When insurance costs go up dramatically, most Americans aren’t going to be thinking about the undocumented.
They’ll put blame where blame is due – the Party in charge.
