Electoral Process
Read the polls: this might be the closest election in American history. And, if you’re a normal Democrat, you are, how do you say: freaking out. That’s understandable. We all woke up on Wednesday, November 9th, 2016. The Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder is real! No Democrat ever wants to go through that again. And, I’m not here to allay your fears. But I am here to show you the facts of this election process, and while your fears may be real, they aren’t as real as the fears the “other side” should have.
It would be so much easier if our electoral process was a simple democracy; a system where Americans vote, and the most votes win. That way, “land” doesn’t hold sway over a portion of our process, as opposed to people. But our Founding Fathers had their reasons. Some were practical, like getting the smaller states to sign onto the Constitution. And some were nefarious, like using the Constitution to prop-up enslavement. Regardless, the Electoral College is our process, and it is very, very, very unlikely to change. Why? Change would require multiple small states to vote against their own self-interest. So the magic number isn’t 80 million votes ,or so, it’s 270 electoral votes.
As Ohio Goes
One sad part of our Electoral College system, is that minority votes in the Presidential election in each state are ignored. Here in Ohio, there are millions of proud Democrats who will cast their vote for Vice President Harris. Ohio used to be a “bell weather state” – now called a swing state. As recently as twelve years ago, Ohio voted for President Obama’s re-election.
But then the state went hard for Trump in 2016, and while 2020 was closer, it seems our “bell” is ringing Red for now, as least as far as Donald Trump is concerned. (There are still Ohioans who think differently. They hope that an overwhelming urban turnout combined with the gradually “purpling” suburbs might reverse the trend. I hope so, and I’ll vote so. But, I’m definitely not holding my breath).
So if trends continue, Ohio, is a “Red” state, and will vote for Trump. Hopefully those Ohio Democratic votes will make the difference for Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Ohio Supreme Court Justices and State Issue One. But in all probability, all fifteen of Ohio’s electoral votes will go for Trump, regardless of how close the popular vote is in the state.
Nothing we can do about that now.
So let’s take the Electoral College, and look at the “sure things”, Red and Blue.
Red, Blue and Swing
So here’s the list:
Red: Alaska, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (-1), Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah (24 States, 218 Electoral Votes).
Blue: Maine (+/-1), New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Wash. DC, Virginia, Illinois, New Mexico, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California (20 States, 226 Electoral Votes).
Those are pretty much set in stone. If those “break away”, then all bets are off.
That leaves the following “swing” states as toss-ups.
Swing: Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16) , Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Nevada (6).
In the election of 2000, Tim Russert of NBC News laid out the election as, “Florida, Florida, Florida”. Then in the election of 2004, the saying went: “As Ohio goes, so goes the Nation”. This election in 2024 boils down to one critical state: “It’s all about Pennsylvania”.
So there’s a mathematical “word problem”. Harris needs 44 more Electoral votes to win. Trump needs 52. What combinations of swing states would “guarantee” their win?
The Blue Wall
The minimal basic Democratic strategy to the Presidency is called the “Blue Wall”. Harris needs to win Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) – 44 Electoral votes. She doesn’t need any more than that. If you wondering why Harris is spending most of her time in those three states, particularly Pennsylvania (it would take two states to make-up the loss); that’s why.
But what if she were to lose one of those? Then Harris has to look to the “Southern Strategy” to balance the loss, and win in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) or Nevada (6). So, when you’re watching the election returns on Tuesday night (and maybe on into Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday) if you see the Blue Wall “holding” for Harris – get some sleep. And if you see the “Southern Strategy” also going to Harris, it’s time to “Raise a Glass!!”
Run the Table
On the other hand, how does Trump win? He has to “run the table”, the same way he did in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton. First he has to break the “Blue Wall”, at least by winning one (most likely) Pennsylvania. Then he has to win most of the Southern Strategy states. The minimum for Trump: Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Nevada (6). That puts him at 275, and only the second President to serve “split terms”. But here’s the rub: If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania (19), but say, wins Michigan or Wisconsin, it’s still difficult to see a path that leads to his victory.
And if he doesn’t win North Carolina or Georgia, there isn’t a likely path either, unless the entire map is flipped on its head.
Final Stretch
So if all things are really equal (I don’t think they are, the “mainstream” polling averages like Real Clear and 538 are slanted to Republican pollsters) then who’s got the advantage on the final stretch?
Republicans eschewed spending for get out the vote operations, instead putting their money into legal challenges of the voting outcome. There are fewer Republican operatives on “the ground” in swing states, fewer offices, fewer volunteer operations, fewer people making phone calls or knocking on doors.
On the other hand, Democrats have put massive funding into their “ground game”. There are offices and staff in most counties in the swing states, and lots of volunteers to rally Dems to the polls. And it seems like that energy is already making a difference; early voting is breaking records in many states, including here in Ohio, where almost a million people have already cast their ballots. As Joe Biden discovered in 2020, bigger turnout favors Democrats. Remember, Trump had the most votes for President of any candidate in history in 2020, except for Joe Biden!!
Help the Cause
By the way, if you want to help Democrats, vote early. Campaigns know that you’ve cast your ballot, and won’t spend money or effort to get you to – you already have!! (No, they don’t know who you voted for, just the fact you’ve already “made your bet” and can’t change it).
And don’t worry Dems, we’ve got the “shenanigans” after the election covered too. Marc Elias, election lawyer extraordinaire, has built a broad team to defend Democrats state by state and federally as well.
President Obama says it best. In rallies when he mentions Trump, at least for the first time, there are general “boos” from the audience. Obama pauses, holds up a finger, then firmly states: “Don’t Boo, VOTE!!” If worrying would elect the President, we’d be fine. But that doesn’t help, so “Don’t Worry, VOTE!!” then find a way to help. Persuade someone to support Harris, or make sure a supporter gets to cast their vote.
Do something – it’s the surest path to victory.
A nice analysis. I understand the historical reasons, etc… for the electoral college. Can you give any argument, from a democratic “the people elect the government” POV that shows the value of the electoral college?
The value of the Electoral College is that it allowed the representatives of the thirteen states to come together in a new Constitution, replacing the Articles of Confederation which was doomed to fail. So sure, that’s a good thing. But, like the 3/5’s compromise, it’s a product of the specific needs of the time, the late 1700’s. As a believer in the Constitution as a living and transformational document, the Electoral College is one of the anachronistic sections that need to be altered. And just like we managed to remove the enslavement clauses after the Civil War, in order to reflect the reality of those times, we need to update the Constitution again. That’s easy to say, but near-impossible to do – since 3/4’s of the states would need to agree, meaning that several states would have to act against their own power and self-interest. (Yes there is an alternate amending process, but I absolutely don’t want to open that particular Pandora’s box.) But that’s what should be done. There’s really nothing democratic about the Electoral College – in fact, it’s designed to be a bloc against “the popular hoard!!!”.
Having said all of that – the Electoral College often does allow a candidate with a plurality of votes – Lincoln and Clinton, for example, to become President without having the really archaic process of Congressional tie-breaking kick in. If this election would go to the House, even if the House was controlled by Democrats, Republicans would still control the vote – 1 vote per state. So Alaska, Wyoming and Rhode Island would have as much “say” as California, New York and Texas. Definitely NOT democratic.
Hmmm. Wish the founding fathers had the wisdom to mandate a mandatory 20-year reoccurring referendum on the constitution or something similar. We are in dire need.
Ah, but keep in mind they would have required a super majority of states to agree – and while (by state) you and I are in the minority there’s no way to see 2/3 or 3/4 agreeing on anything in our current polarized nation.
Odd – the only state vote that is by simple majority is when the House breaks a tie for President. If that were to occur in this election; even if Dems win the House – Reps would still have a majority of states. Maybe that’s Mike Johnson’s “secret” plan!!