I know you want “the best” for America. But here’s a problem: unemployment is too low. Yes, I know that sounds just crazy. How can more people working be bad for America? The June employment numbers just came out, over 209,000 added jobs, and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. What it really means is that there are jobs available, for almost anyone who wants one. And that should be a good thing.
But economists say it’s not. I’m kind of think of economists like weather men. You know the weather report, if it’s stormy, you need to hide; if it’s sunny, well, you need to hide too. Rain means your outdoor plans are ruined. Dry means that the crops won’t grow and the fires will. Snow in the winter means a “snow-pocalypse”, no snow is “evidence of global warming”. Economists and weather men see the “glass as half empty” every time. Sometimes I think it’s more about finding something to worry Americans about, so you tune in tomorrow to see what happens next.
And then there’s the “worst” number: wages are going up!! That means more people have more jobs and are making more money. But, then, they’re SPENDING that money (duh!!). And that’s generated “inflationary feelings” (I’m not making that up, the reporter on TV just said that). It’s as if we somehow have to treat the economy like a lover, dealing with “feelings” and “bad days” and “that time of the year”. And then there’s “inflationary fears”, like somehow your sweet economy might somehow move out, and leave you in the lurch, or worse, a recession.
So if I’m hearing all of this correctly, economists want the unemployment rate higher, so there are more people looking for jobs, so that the businesses can pay them less: “If you won’t work for this much, someone else will”. That way prices go down, and people have less money to pay for it anyway. And meanwhile more people can’t find jobs. But that sounds a lot like a recession to me, kind of like we need a major flood to take care of the drought conditions.
If those ideas are what your economic advisors are suggesting, please don’t listen to them. I know, like the weatherman and a coin flip, they might be right 50% of the time. But if it’s just a coin flip, they might be wrong too. And meanwhile, it’s the worst thing for the regular working stiff out there in the world, who wants a job, with more money, that will allow her or him to provide for themselves, and maybe their families (or even to pay off those damn student loans, thanks for trying!).
Politically, of course, whatever you do, half of the country will think you’re wrong. In our current polarized nation, one side is going to scream “IT’S ALL YOUR FAULT” no matter what happens. I agree: it IS your fault that unemployment is low and wages are up. You are to blame that, in my area (Central Ohio) they can’t build factories, roads, electric girds, and “distribution centers” (weren’t those called warehouses once?) fast enough. I hear folks here in my town say: “You can’t get through the McDonald’s drive-thru, because nobody wants to work”.
What’s really happening at McD’s? Why make $12/hour at McDonald’s when you can go just down the road and make $20/hour at Amazon. And if you have a skill, you can make a whole lot more driving heavy equipment and pushing dirt in any one of the dozens of new plants going up. One of my neighbors drives a gas tanker to work sites to fill up the machines. He can’t work enough hours in a week to get the job done. Of course, McDonald’s might have to raise wages. And then they’ll raise the price of Big Mac’s. And then we’ll have inflation.
But people are working. That means they have some control over their own lives; where they live and what they eat (Big Mac’s?) and even what they do for a job. If they don’t like what they’re doing, they can do something else, the opportunity is there.
And if you’re trying to “thread the needle” between expansion and improvement, and recession and inflation; keep doing what you’re doing. People always complain about the weather. But they still watch the weather on TV every night. And I think Americans will get it. Our economy is booming, and we have time to complain about everything else. If we were really struggling; no one would be talking. All they could do is try to scratch out a living.
Good work, Mr. President.
