Results Are In
Ohio has voted – at least for the moment. Due to re-districting manipulations, we still have to choose the party candidates for state Senate and House. But, our political “clubs” have chosen the other candidates. The good news for Democrats – Nan Whaley, former Dayton Mayor won the nomination for Governor, and Congressman Tim Ryan for Senate. (I saw Ryan yesterday on Morning Joe. He’s pumped, and he’s channeling Zelenskyy in an olive-drab T-shirt!!).
But that’s not all the good news. The Republican “club” narrowly picked “Hillbilly Elegy” author and investment manager JD Vance to run against Ryan for Senate. Republicans had choices; including some “normal” middle of the road candidates, like Jane Timken or Matt Dolan. Or they could have picked a perennial candidate remodeled as “Pro-God, Pro-Guns, and Pro-Trump” Josh Mandel. Or the guy that Mandel went “chest-to-belly” with on a live state wide debate, Mike Gibbons. Instead, they went for Donald Trump’s personally anointed choice “JP Mandel” (Vance).
In the general election, He’ll give away the “middle ground” to the T-Shirt clad, working class, “it’s all about China” Ryan. It won’t be easy – Ohio never is for a Democrat. But if Sherrod Brown can win in Ohio against Mandel, then Tim Ryan has a good shot against “Elegy Boy”. It’s a great matchup for the Dems. (By the way, read the book or watch the movie, “Hillbilly Elegy”. It’s a good story. Then watch JD Vance live. I guarantee you’ll be disappointed).
Old School
Republican sanity made a comeback though, with the re-nomination of Governor Mike DeWine to run for a second term. DeWine is “old-school” Republican (and old aged at 75), once a US Senator and State Attorney General. And, from my side of the fence, he did a pretty good job handling the Covid crisis, in spite of a legislature that wanted to be maskless and packed together. DeWine knew when to fight, and also to when give up before the Legislature eviscerated his authority. His one flaw: he let Ohio Public Health Director Amy Acton take all the heat when the pressure was on, and let her fall on her sword for him.
There’s not too much more I like about DeWine. Under his leadership, Republicans took $60 million in bribes from First Energy, resulting in the state picking up a multi-billion dollar invoice for the old First Energy nuclear reactors. DeWine turned on his loyal Sheriffs Association friends when he supported unlimited and unlicensed conceal/carry. And DeWine was first in line for restrictive abortion legislation, all of which is likely to go into effect when the Supreme Court kills the Roe decision.
Residual Anger
Against DeWine is Nan Whaley, the forty-six year old former Mayor of Dayton. She made a strong positive impression on the state, leading Dayton through the mass shooting in 2019, and doing a good job of revitalizing a city that lost most of its key industries in the 1990’s. Whaley is personable, progressive, and primed to be Ohio first woman governor.
DeWine should command in the race, but the far-right is still angry: about masks, about restrictions, about zoom learning and vaccination and testing requirements. So it remains to be seen how many of those folks will step aside from the DeWine race. It’s not that they’ll vote for Whaley instead, but they might just overlook the Governor’s race all together. If the “Trump voters” refuse to vote for DeWine, that’ll hurt. And if the Tim Ryan race draws a big traditional Democratic turnout, and Roe hits the suburban “swing districts” both Ryan and Whaley have a shot.
Magenta
It’s Ohio, a state that twice voted for Barack Obama, then voted twice for Donald Trump. Every statewide office is held by Republicans but one, Sherrod Brown in the US Senate. If Florida is purple, just barely Republican by a percent or two, then Ohio is “magenta” (thanks to the old Crayola Box of my childhood) – almost red, but not quite. There still is a chance for Democrats in Ohio, but it needs to be a “perfect storm”.
The Democrats run the cities: Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Toledo, Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati. But the Republicans own the suburbs outside of the cities, and the vast tracks of farmlands in between. The current balance leans Republican. But suburban cracks are appearing, particularly in the exploding housing developments around Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus. The “soccer families” didn’t like Donald Trump, and some slipped towards the Democratic side.
Will the looming Roe crisis drive them further Blue? And while JD Vance’s endorsement by Trump will help in the farmlands, and Appalachian Ohio is drawn to his story (and there’s lots of that, almost of quarter of the state), those might not be so helpful in Centerville (Dayton) or Lewis Center (Columbus).
Deep Red
I live in “deep Red” Ohio here in Pataskala. Trump flags are almost as numerous as “Old Glory”. So while I can read the statistics about the state, it’s hard to be too optimistic. We still have to whisper our political conversations in the local restaurants. But there’s always hope too. My Ohio is definitely “Trump Country”, but beneath that is a deep vein of common sense. Maybe that will finally come through – this time.
