Wisdom
Joe Biden is the 46th President of the United States. At seventy-eight, he’s the oldest man ever to serve in the office, edging out Ronald Reagan at the end of his term. If age begats wisdom, then we have elected the wisest man ever to be President.
But more importantly, Joe Biden brings a lifetime of legislative experience to the White House. He was first elected to the United States Senate in 1972, actually twenty-nine years of age on election day and meeting the minimum age of thirty, two weeks after. He served in the US Senate from that time until he took the oath of office for the Vice Presidency in 2009, thirty-six years later. To say that Joe Biden is a “man of the Senate” is not just a turn of phrase: he literally grew up in a body where legislative compromise was the “stock in trade”.
President Biden knows what the Senate was. And he also knows what our current political climate is like. As Vice President, Biden experienced first-hand the recalcitrance of Mitch McConnell’s Republican majority, climaxing in holding a Supreme Court seat open for more than a year in order to prevent then-President Obama from filling it. The “stolen seat”, now held by conservative appointee Neil Gorsuch, is a bone in the throats of Democrats, and a “success story” for the now minority Republican Senators.
President Biden believes in a Senate of compromise, and sees as a major goal of his Presidency bringing the Senate and the nation back to its former self. But he also knows that his Presidency will ultimately be judged on how he manages the COVID crisis. It’s the reason he was elected; Donald Trump’s ultimate failure, and the true “test” of Biden’s time.
Parliamentary Tricks
So when the goal of restoring the Senate runs up against the goal of managing COVID, President Biden is in the mix. He has the power, right now, to pass almost his entire $1.9 trillion COVID relief plan without any Republican votes at all. Speaker Pelosi in the House is already framing the legislation as a “budget” item. The United States House of Representatives operates on a “majority wins” system, have one more vote than the other side, and you win. And the Speaker has ten more votes than the Republicans, so she can do as she wishes.
But the Senate is tied. There are fifty Republicans, and fifty Democrats. The Democrats have “control” by the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. But for most legislation the Senate is not a majority rule body. Current rules require sixty votes to end debate on legislation, a process called “cloture”. So even though fifty Democratic Senators and one Vice President will vote for final passage, they can’t get to a final vote without ten Republicans agreeing to end debate.
Exception Makes the Rule
But there are exceptions. Federal judicial and cabinet appointments are now under “the nuclear option”, that is, a simple majority. No cloture votes are necessary. And items that come under the heading of “budget reconciliation” are also under the “simple majority” rule. That’s something that Speaker Pelosi is very much aware of – thus the $1.9 trillion Biden COVID relief packaged as a “budget item” rather than a stand-alone legislative proposal.
So President Biden can ram through his big COVID relief package within the next month or so. And he can do it without any Republican cooperation, as long as he can keep all fifty Senate Democrats lined up in his column. Then Vice President Harris will fulfill her Constitutional obligation as President of the Senate, and cast her tie-breaking vote.
Doing a Deal
But the tie-breaking vote might not be the only thing broken. It might also break any opportunity for Biden to develop some cooperation with the Republicans in the Senate. That cooperation is the key to bringing American politics away from the polarization that led to a Donald Trump Presidency. And Biden isn’t the only one invested in changing our political atmosphere. So are many Republicans who see Trumpism as a danger to their causes, their Party, and their nation. And of course, they recognize the need for some COVID relief as well.
So President Biden’s attuned sense of Senate deal making is alert. Ten Republican Senators have proposed an alternative to the Biden COVID plan at $600 billion. There should be no surprise that the number is ten, the exact number needed to end the debate and bring any plan to a vote. That gives them some power. And they went over to the White House yesterday.
There’s a far piece between $1.9 trillion and $600 billion. But you have to have some offer to get in the door, or more colloquially, into “the room where it happens”. Those ten Republicans don’t expect to come out with a $600 billion deal. President Biden doesn’t expect to get his $1.9 trillion either. And there’s more than just passage on the table. Maybe some of those Republicans don’t vote for the final bill, but are willing to vote for cloture to bring it to the floor for final vote.
All In
They all have more in common than not. Both Republicans and Democrats recognize the need for COVID relief. They all want to get legislation into law. And they all want to proceed in a way that encourages future cooperation and deals, not just more side-taking and finger-pointing. Neither wants to use anything that’s called a “nuclear option”. Just as in real warfare, it’s beyond difficult to turn back once gone “nuclear”.
There are Democrats on the other side, from the “Progressive” wing of the Party, that will cringe at any Biden giveaway of COVID relief. They will pressure him to stick “to the plan” and go nuclear if he needs to. But it’s difficult to see where they get to negotiate this. Are they going to vote against a compromise COVID relief plan? It doesn’t seem likely, and their counter-pressure to the Republican moderates may not be enough. Those progressives will end up accepting a Biden compromise, even if they don’t like it.
After all, it is the United States Senate.
