Category: Uncategorized

Post-Truth

During World War II there was a huge influx of young, rural American men into New York City.  They were there enroute to the battlefields of Europe, and they marveled at the miles of skyscrapers in “Gotham”.  Kids from places like Outville (really, just down the road from here in Pataskala) or Ottumwa (the birthplace of Radar O’Reilly of MASH fame) or Ouray (above 10,000 feet in Colorado) wandered Times Square.  And while they knew a lot about farming and hunting and fishing, some were a little bit naïve about “Big City” ways.  The joke was, there were so gullible that you could sell them the Brooklyn Bridge.

Today we are, maybe, more sophisticated.  The amount of information Americans get:  from television, social media, online searches and unending texts and emails; is more than the old firehose versus garden hose analogy.  There’s a massive Niagara river flowing to us of so-called facts.  We learn to select our sources because in this “post-truth” era,  just because we hear it doesn’t make it true.  (One of my Facebook friends can detail the design and construction of an alien spaceship, just passing the sun’s orbit and headed towards earth – “the end is near!!”). 

Tariffs

Last night President Donald Trump proclaimed that his “magnum opus”, the tariff plan, was directly changing the American economy.  In fact, he said the following:

“Tariff revenues SMASH records – slashing the U.S. deficit by over 25%!  Shrinking government spending, downsizing bloated bureaucracy and unleashing a wave of American jobs” (Twitter/X).

Another of my Facebook buddies praised him for this wonderful work.  In fact, he said, “…that give us another two years, and the US deficit would be completely gone – what a marvelous job Trump is doing for the American people.”

Deficit

So here are some other “facts”, maybe sourced a little better.  The true annual deficit of the United States Government is $1.78 Trillion.  That’s how much more the government is spending than bringing in.  So the common definition of “deficit” is in our current annual budget.  To cut that “deficit” by 25%, would require the government to either cut $445 Billion from expenditures, or raise that same amount in revenues.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, tariffs have raised $195 Billion this year, about $140 Billion more than last year.  So the Trump Administration should get credit for raising $140 Billion to reduce the deficit (CRFFB).  And there was a $200 Billion one-time student loan savings, putting Trump nearer to his magic number.  But there were also increases in the budget spending, that in the end, leaves the 2025 deficit about the same – $1.8 Trillion (US Treasury).

Fancy book keeping, what we used to call “lyin’ and figurin’ by politicians”, ain’t nothing new.  It’s easy to claim the savings, without owning the expenditures.  Maybe your household made more money than last year.  But if costs went up more than the additional income, it doesn’t make your personal “deficit” status any better.  You might brag about how much you made, but you probably don’t talk about how much you spent.

Debt

Then there’s the Federal government “language problem”.  That’s because there is a reasonable confusion between two terms:  deficit and debt.  The deficit is how much more the government spends annually then they bring in.  The debt is the total accumulation of annual deficits that the government is responsible for.  So, add this year’s $1.8 trillion, to all of the other years of spending more than was brought in, and you get the debt.  Deep breath – the US owes $38.2 Trillion (Debt Clock).  

Who do we owe it to?  Close to two-thirds of the debt is owned  by us, payable to us (Pew).  Government bonds are a source of financing, raising money to cover the debt and, like any loan, paying interest to the bondholders (US Treasury).  And about 20% of that money is actually borrowed from other government funds.  The Government writes an “IOU” to itself, borrowing from social security, Medicare, and retirement funds.  The US Government also owes money to folks in other countries and to banks and institutions in those nations. But it’s not as much as you think:  about 30% of the debt is “overseas” (Congress).

Real Numbers

What does having that much debt do?  Well, first it reduces how much the government can spend on other stuff.  Paying interest on a $38 Trillion debt costs a lot, even if the rate is low. Last year the US budget included about $1 Trillion to pay interest on the debt.  And second, it has the effect of increasing the overall supply of money.  More money in supply means that “getting” money is easier, but it also means that the purchasing power of that money is lower.  In “plain language”, the debt is a major influence towards rising prices – inflation.

With all the “language”, it’s easy to get confused.  Some of my Facebook buddies truly believe that Donald Trump’s tariffs are paying off the US debt at an amazing rate – but the numbers show that’s not really true.  In fact, he’s not even reducing the debt.  But he has had one visible effect:  the cost of purchasing tariffed items is going up:  coffee, cars, electronic equipment, and imported foods are notable examples.  And, American consumers are paying for the tariffs.

That increases our own personal spending, pushing some into a bigger personal deficit.  And that’s a problem that even Facebook can’t solve.

Not Me!!!!

President Trump just announced that the Justice Department will be “probing” the relationship between deceased billionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, and a host of Democrats.  They include former President Bill Clinton, former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, billionaire venture capitalist Reid Hoffman, and banking giant JP Morgan Chase.   Hoffman helped fund E Jean Carroll’s successful defamation and battery suit against Trump. And JP Morgan facilitated Epstein’s finances even after his child exploitation conviction in Florida.

My mother used to have an expression:  “That’s the pot calling the kettle black”.  It’s not a racial commentary. In her childhood in England the main fuel supply for both heating and cooking was coal.  Pots on the stove were constantly covered with a black coating of coal soot.  Therefore, both the pot and the kettle were black – coated with the same soot.

Emails released from the trove given to the House Oversight Committee by the Epstein estate, revealed that Epstein was both in communication with Trump in the last years of his life, and also making a living off of advising others how to manipulate Trump.  He wasn’t the only one; former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen early on in the Trump Presidency advertised that he could reach the President, for a fee.  But these “new” emails directly counter the White House narrative that, while Trump knew Epstein in the 1980’s and 1990’s, their relationship was severed in the 2007.  That’s when Trump claims to have “kicked Epstein out” of membership in his Mar-A-Lago club.

Under the Gallows

Donald Trump, to use another old English phrase, is “twisting in the wind”. The origin of that came from the English use of the gallows to execute criminals.  Once they fell through the trap door, the body was left at the end of the rope, subject to the whims of the winds – “twisting”.  It now is used to describe someone who is fate is out of their control, at the “whim of the winds”.  

For years, the Trump “team” tried to master the Epstein issue.  Trump’s re-election to the Presidency gave him ample power to gain control of the narrative.  However, Trump also used the Epstein situation, including conspiracy theories about Epstein’s death in the Manhattan Federal Correctional Facility during Trump’s first term as President, to attack Democrats.  He made a campaign promise, to get to “the bottom” of the EPSTEIN FILES. And he implied that the Biden Administration was afraid to investigate because of involvement by high level Democrats, including Bill Clinton.

Both Trump’s  Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and more notably FBI Director, Kash Patel, committed over and over again to open up and release the EPSTEIN FILES.   Bondi even claimed to “be going through” the FILES in a Congressional hearing.  But both became strangely quiet, likely when they read what actually was in the record.  Now, they deny that there ever were “FILES”, and are using the Obi Won Kenobi defense:  “Nothing to see here, move along, move along”. 

Transparency Act 

America isn’t accepting that.  Even some of the most avid MAGA members of Congress, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert and Nancy Mace, are standing against the President and demanding that the (now non-existent?) EPSTEIN FILES be released.  The House is preparing to pass the EPSTEIN FILES TRANSPARENCY ACT, calling for the Justice Department to release all of the information.

Now, getting past the House will only be the first hurdle for such a law.  The Senate will need to pass it, by a 60-40 filibuster-avoiding margin.  And then the President would have to sign it. Or, the House would need to pass it again by a two-thirds majority, and the Senate by two-thirds as well.  All of that is highly unlikely to happen.

But what Congressional action on the act will do, is pressure whoever is “next”  in line to vote for it, or explain why not.  The President would ultimately face the same choice, one that would go completely against his own campaign promises.

And meanwhile, the White House is doing everything in their power to obfuscate the situation.  After a record setting government closure, (that bought forty-six days) the issue is right back up. It’s front and center for Congress, the President, and the American people.  Now the US Navy, the largest warship in the world the USS Gerald Ford is off the coast of Venezuela.  The aircraft carrier, and all of the other ships part of the “Carrier Group”, threaten a neighboring country.  There are multiple issues between Venezuela and the United States, (less so with Columbia). But none of them seem to rise to this warlike setting.

Wagging the Dog

So here’s one more expression, this from my more recent adulthood:  “Wag the Dog”.  It was a movie in the 1990’s when the President of the United States invented a war in southeastern Europe, in order to distract from a personal sex scandal with a Girl Scout selling cookies in the Oval Office.

The pot is just as black as the kettle.

The Presidential strategy on Epstein is absolutely twisting in the wind.

And, we seem to be on the verge of a war with neighboring South American countries.

 I hope Trump’s not just “wagging the dog”, one more attempt to avoid accountability for his actions with Jeffrey Epstein.

There’s certainly something to see here.

The Eleventh Hour

“Hostilities will be stopped on the entire front beginning at 11 o’clock, November 11th (French hour). The Allied troops will not go beyond the line reached at that hour on that date until further orders” (Allied Commander, French Marshal Ferdinand Foch).

Numerologists believe that certain numbers hold “special powers”.   They say it’s no coincidence that the Armistice ending World War I went into effect on the Eleventh hour, of the Eleventh day, of the Eleventh Month.  Eleven is a “Master Number*”.  But the staff of French Marshal Foch, the Supreme Commander of Allied Forces, had a more practical reason.  The ceasefire was signed at 5:00 am on that day. The battle lines were four hundred miles long, and there were continuing operations both at sea and in the air.  11/11/11 was an easy way to communicate to all that the battles should stop, at all places, at the same time.

* 11 represents illumination; a channel to the subconscious; insight without rational thought; and sensitivity, nervous energy, shyness, and impracticality. It is a dreamer (Numerology).

Estimates are that 3000 soldiers died in that six hour span. Some died because commanders  hadn’t “gotten the word yet”. Some were trying to gain “that last” strategic advantage over an enemy they battled for more than four years.  It is a measure of the massive size of the war, that so many died in that brief period before the shooting stopped.

The End of War

Originally, “Armistice Day” celebrated the end of “The War to End All Wars”.  But the next generation discovered that World War I was only a beginning. November 11^th was soon joined by May 8^th, Victory in Europe Day, and the formal surrender of Japan on the deck of the USS Battleship Missouri on September 2nd.   In the United Kingdom and Canada, it became known as Remembrance Day.  In the United States we call it Veterans Day, to honor those who served.  (That’s different than Memorial Day, that honors those who died in service).

I am the child of two World War II veterans.  Dad was from Cincinnati, and joined the Army (rather than be drafted) in 1941.  He ultimately used his finance degree from the University of Cincinnati to become part of Army Finance, dealing with payrolls and, after the D-Day Invasion, currencies in France.  

Mom was British.  Her war experiences were dramatic as a part of Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s “private” spy service, the Special Operations Executive (SOE).  She was in and out of occupied Europe throughout the War (“My Story”, in her own words).  They met and fell in love as the bombs fell on London, and had to move their wedding date up by a couple of months because of the coming D-Day invasion.  

My Generation

So I’ve always had a special appreciation of those who served their Nation.  After all, if it wasn’t for that service, I wouldn’t be here!!  I grew up with their stories, shared around the living room over gin and tonic or straight Kentucky bourbon.  I was too young (barely) to get drafted for the Vietnam War, but that conflict soured many Americans on military service.  And many civilians had difficulty distinguishing those who served, from those who bore the responsibility for sending our soldiers there.  Coming home from Vietnam meant hiding their service, even at the airports as they travelled.  I had close friends who had the toughest duties in Vietnam, and it took a lot of trust for them to share their stories.  

In my father’s generation, 33% of the men served in the military.  Today, less than half of that percentage have that same shared experience.  That makes Veterans Day even more special. It’s not just to honor their service, but to realize the huge sacrifice many of them have made.  War hasn’t gotten “better” in our advanced technical age, in fact, advances have made the injuries more serious, and difficult to treat.  

Haunting

Warfare seems different, maybe even crueler in this modern age.  Our recent wars have been fought where it was difficult to distinguish between ally and enemy.  A ten year-old child looking for a Hershey Bar from my father’s generation, more recently carried an improvised explosive device.

 And we now know that brain injuries and exposure to varying chemicals leave lifelong effects.  The veteran who seems “fine” on the outside, may still be suffering on the inside.  I had the opportunity to spend some time with these “new” veterans. (As opposed to the old veterans sitting around our living room back in the 1960’s).  Not only do they need to be recognized for their efforts, but also helped with the issues that still haunt them (often literally).

It’s Veterans Day, a day designated to honor those who served our Nation.  I’ve gone from knowing veterans of my parents’ generation, to my generation, to the generations of kids I taught and coached in school.  No matter the divisive politics of our current era; no matter whether someone is “MAGA” or “Woke” or somewhere in between.  We all owe a debt of thanks to the few who served and serve now.  That debt is payable on any day, but particularly today.

To my Veteran friends – Happy Veterans Day.  Thank you for your sacrifice, for all of us.  

Bad Week

Last Tuesday Democrats began their electoral comeback.  The election results in many parts of the Nation, from New Jersey to California to Mississippi, were overwhelmingly in the Democrat’s favor.  And Democrats were able to turn blame for the ongoing Government shutdown onto the Republicans.  A majority of the Nation saw Republicans at fault, not only for the shutdown itself, but for the looming threat of increased insurance costs.  

In effect, last week was a very bad week for Republicans, and for the President, maybe the “worst” week of the second Trump Presidency.  

So, why did eight Democratic Senators flip last night, and join with Republicans to push a budget resolution forward; the beginning of the end of the shutdown?  That in spite of their failure to get the sole demand they asked for:  continued funding for the Affordable Care Act.   

Back in the spring, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer allowed Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” to go to the floor for a Senate vote.  Instead of using the filibuster to stop it, he depended on a few Republicans to “cross-over” and vote against the Bill, denying it a simple majority.  It ultimately passed though, a tie in the Senate with Vice President Vance casting the tiebreaking vote.

Schumer took a great deal of “heat” for not requiring the filibuster, a sixty vote passing margin, and shutting down the Government.  But, at the time, Schumer noted that a closed Government gave the President even more power to cut jobs and redistribute funding.  He was unwilling to take that risk.

Shutdown

And that’s just what we’ve seen in this current shutdown.  The Trump Administration continues to pay for their “priority” issues, including the payment of ICE officers.  The US Military is getting paid as well.  But many other areas that directly impact US citizens, including the Air Traffic Controllers and TSA agents, were required to work, without pay (they presumably will be paid back once the government reopens).  Even more government employees were furloughed, with no guarantee of repayment, effectively unemployed.  And then, Trump stepped in to prevent November SNAP benefits (the Food Stamp Program) from being distributed, even though the funds were available.

And that became the “Hobson’s Choice” for some Democrats in the Senate.  As Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire bluntly put it:  “Trump forced us to choose between sick kids and hungry kids”.  

The Deal

The eight cross-overs (seven Democrats and Independent Angus King of Maine) did extract several concessions from the Republican majority.  They include repayment for government officials required to work without pay, reinstatement of workers fired during the shutdown, and the end of further federal job cuts.  It also guaranteed SNAP funding in the future.  

But they didn’t get the Affordable Care Act funding.  The Senators did get a promise of a vote on that funding, one that will force Republicans to go on the record for increased insurance costs (if they vote against).  It won’t likely fix the insurance problem, but it will firmly fix the blame soaring costs.

The question is:  did Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  Or, did Chuck Schumer find a way out of what was going to be an impossible situation.  SNAP benefits were not getting paid. People were facing real hunger.  US transportation (particularly air) was snarled, delayed and cancelled with the holiday season coming. And millions of government employees were unpaid.  

Is this another Democratic “failure”, or did Democrats get exactly what they wanted?  We now have a clear choice of “who’s to blame” when it comes to rising insurance rates, unpaid government workers and even hungry kids.

The Tell

Schumer himself voted against the deal.  But the “tell” is the vote of Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, the second most powerful Democratic Senator (the minority whip).  Schumer is the “face” of the Democrats in the Senate. But Durbin holds the “whip hand”, the “muscle” of the Party.  He provided the final vote, the eighth, to end the filibuster and begin to reopen the government.  It’s likely that this was, in part, Schumer’s plan, even though two Senators from New Hampshire took the lead role.

So what happens next?  The Government is NOT open.  The Senate has NOT voted on the resolution to reopen it, and may not for a few days.  The House of Representatives is NOT even in session.  Speaker Johnson will need to call his Republican members back from their six week vacation (the Democrats never left).  And the “deal” the Senate made hasn’t been confirmed by the whole Senate, or either the House or the President.  So, until there’s an agreement between all three, nothing is certain.

Except for one thing.  Whatever the fate of this deal, it has firmly set the stage for the 2026 election campaign:  advantage Democrats.   If the shutdown continued, it may have turned to a “pox on both your houses”.  

Schumer may have snatched victory from the jaws of catastrophe.  We’ll know in about a year.

Special Report

When I was a kid, the “NBC Special Report” logo and music held a special terror.  From the time I was six, a “Special Report” meant risk or tragedy.  

• “Special Report”:  missiles in Cuba.  
• “Special Report” Kennedy assassinated.  
• “Special Report”:  Winston Churchill, Dwight Eisenhower; dead.  

And that was all when I was younger.

The mid-sixties were worse:  Apollo I burned on the launch pad, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy shot and killed; the summer riots, the Chicago Democratic Convention, Four Dead in Ohio.  It was like a morbid version of  “We Didn’t Start the Fire” by Billy Joel.  I still get a special “twitch” when the “magic” words are intoned:  “We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming for an NBC Special Report”.  Who’s dead; what’s crashed?

In recent years though, that “special report” music has less impact on me.  Now, it’s the “election music” that gives me a traumatic reaction.  It’s weird; I’ve been involved in politics all of my life (at least since I was three).  Elections were exciting; like the final game of football season or the state championships in cross country.  There was always that energy, that magic moment right before election day, when everything is possible. 

Stages of Grief

But since November of 2016, “election music” doesn’t create the same sense of anticipation.  Now, it’s more like the dread of the old “Special Report”. It’s been since that long Tuesday night/Wednesday morning when we discovered that the polling was wrong and Hillary did not “break the final glass ceiling”.   For a Democrat like me, it was unimaginable.  And, after going through the stages of “grief”; Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance (maybe never acceptance), we sat and watched President Obama and Michelle, with ultimate dignity, hand the “keys of the nation” to Donald Trump.

Come to think of it, maybe we never got much past the “anger” stage of grief.  And that anger came out in record strength in 2018, when Democrats regained control of the Congress, and stood up to Trump’s demands.  

Relief

In 2020 there was excited anticipation for the vote.  But there was still that lurking dread that we might have to relive 2016 again.  So it was with relief rather than joy that we accepted the results of the Biden Presidency.  It took four days, until Saturday, to be sure Trump was “over”. Besides, we were in the throes of Covid and celebration was a mostly solitary activity.

But then there was a “return to normalcy”; perhaps too quickly.  We grew complacent in the “regular order”, the “norms” of politics and government.   We thought it was 2012, not 2024.  I would say that many Americans underestimated the power, the attraction, and the desperation that drove Donald Trump back into the Presidency. I surely did.

Again the polls mislead us.  Kamala Harris lost every swing state, and the disbelief of November 2016 came crashing back.  We knew that this time, there were no guardrails or norms, that if Donald Trump was “restrained” back in 2017, he wouldn’t be now.  There would never be an “acceptance” phase in this grief; we were trapped in “depression”, watching the democracy we loved almost instantly altered beyond recognition. 

Music Again

Tuesday night the “election music” played once again.  Depression fiercely guards against false hope.  Allowing that would make the “fall” even worse.  So Tuesday’s MSNBC (MSNOW??) no longer elicits joy and excitement.  Instead, it serves as a warning of bad news to come.

But that didn’t happen. Tuesday was a resounding Democratic victory, from New Jersey to California,  from Pennsylvania to ruby-red Mississippi.  Sherrill won in New Jersey, Mamdani  won New York, Spanberger won Virginia, and the California re-districting amendment passed overwhelmingly.  Even in the Virginia Attorney General race the Democrat won.  Jay Jones, hamstrung by a stupid text sent three years ago, (in the middle of a gun control debate, he suggested that the Republican Assembly leader should get “bullets to the head”). He still pulled off a narrow victory over the Republican incumbent.

So what does this all mean?  Trumpism, MAGAism isn’t over.  The battle will continue day-to-day; by Governors, the Democratic minority in the Congress, and in the Courts. And by “everyday Americans” (I hate that phrase) who will to stand for their beliefs and march in the streets.  But there is a twinkling “new dawn” in America.  Maybe the dread of “election music” will return to an anticipation of success.  Or, as Winston Churchill so loquaciously put it:

Now this is not the end.

It is not even the beginning of the end.

But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Fall of Rome

There is an apocryphal story about the beginnings of the fall of the Roman Empire.  Long before Rome was sacked by the Visigoths in 410 AD, the story goes that Emperor Nero was so oblivious to the fate of his subjects, that he played a lyre as the city burned.  From that story comes the phrase for a leader heedless of his duties:  “He fiddled while Rome burned”.   It is the symbolic tale of a government absolutely detached from the needs of its constituents.  Nero was the “beginning of the end”. 

There’s some serious fiddling around going on here in America today.  The Government of the United States of America is closed, and has been for more than a month.  Sure, the wheels of bureaucracy continue to grind, albeit slowly.  Medicare bills and social security payments still arrive.  But, what used to be called “food stamps” (now SNAP benefits) are on the block this week.  

And the place where many Americans come in direct contact with Federal employees, the airport, is under stress.  TSA and Air Traffic Controllers are mandated to show up for work.  But they aren’t getting a paycheck.  Not surprising, many are taking sick days, perhaps to work other jobs to pay the bills.

Fiddling in Florida

And what is the President of the United States, for once, really the “only man” who can fix this, doing?  Most of the past couple weeks was spent overseas, picking up awards from various leaders. Then, he returned to host a White House Halloween party, and work on planning the self-named new ballroom.  Next, he spent the weekend at Mar-A-Lago, golfing during the day, and hosting a “Great Gatsby” themed dinner party at night.  

Ironic that they chose The Great Gatsby, a book about social elites set in 1922.  1922 was a transition era for the United States.  The Nation was recovering from the Great War, with the economic upheaval caused by moving  from a wartime economy back to peace. 

Gatsby

The United States was also restricting immigration, and cracking down on political dissent through the Palmer Raids.   And many Americans ignored the US Constitution, particularly when it came to the 18^th Amendment banning alcohol production.  That created a huge criminal black market for alcohol transportation and sale, and made many Americans new criminals.  

It was a time of rich extravagance, and criminal growth.  There were the “bandits”: Machine Gun Kelly, Bonnie and Clyde, and Pretty Boy Floyd.  They were well armed with the new weapons used in the Great War.  And it was also a time of dramatic growth for organized crime, financed by the alcohol trade.  While Al Capone headlined with violence, all of the Mafia families dramatically grew through bootlegging and other illegal activities.

“Main Street” America was invested heavily in Wall Street. It was a time of excess, and “fiddling while Rome burned”. But, the economic success was soon to end. By 1930 we were in the throes of the Great Depression, the wealth of the masses lost in the market crash.

Knee Socks

So where are we now?  The Wall Street economics seems to have no bounds, driven by the “AI bubble”.  But on Main Street prices are still high, with no end in sight.  Some US Senators in both parties would like to negotiate an end to the shutdown, but leadership knows that nothing is possible without Trump’s agreement.  And in the House, Democrats face locked doors, as Republican leaders keep the body in more than a month-long recess.   They’re waiting for Trump’s “permission” to come back to Washington.

Decades ago, my teacher’s union was negotiating for a new contract with the Board of Education.  The Superintendent, the Board’s lead negotiator, thought he could get a “better deal” by  blowing things up.  So he showed up hours late for negotiations, dressed in a summer Boy Scout uniform, complete with shorts, knee socks and tasseled garters.  The message was clear:  going to his son’s Scout meeting was much more important than what the teachers wanted.

It worked.  The teachers were incensed.  And while a strike was ultimately averted, the final deal was tough.  The Superintendent got some of what he wanted. I guess he won. But the loyalty and respect of the teachers he lost was never regained.

Trump’s message to America is clear as well:  playing dress-up at Mar-A-Lago is more important than getting the American Government back open.  The difference is that many Americans aren’t sure that the President wants to ever open the government again.  He’s much more comfortable running it “by himself”.  It’s that “he alone” thing all over again.

“The Great Gatsby” did not have a happy ending.  Neither will Trump’s current course of “fiddling around”. 

Big Tent

So let me tell you a little bit about the Democratic Party.  Ken Martin, the Democratic National Chairman, just outlined the “bottom line” of being a Democrat:  “Make people’s lives a little better”.   Democrats are a Party that represents widely divergent views.  They are the Party of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and the powerful candidate for Mayor of New York, Zohran Mamdani (Zoor-ran Mom-daah-ne: I can say it even if his former Democratic opponent, Andrew Cuomo, can’t). They call themselves Democratic Socialists. And Democrats are also the Party of Henry Cuellar of Texas, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and even John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.  No one would ever dare call those folks “socialists”.

Democrats are the Party of the “big tent”.  So what drives them to move forward as a single political group?  It is Martin’s “bottom line” – “Make people’s lives a little better”.   His fellow Minnesotan,  Vice President and longtime Senator Hubert Humphrey defined “liberalism”.  “Liberalism, above all, means emancipation—emancipation from one’s fears, his inadequacies from prejudice, from discrimination, yes, from poverty.”  That 1967 definition still applies to the Democratic Party today, no matter that the “liberal label” has gone far out of style.  

It’s that ultimate goal that keeps Democrats of different “stripes”, different methods, together under one banner, our “big tent”.  

By the way, in a recent and incredibly divisive non-partisan local election here in the Pataskala area, one faction searched for the worst possible insult to throw at an opponent.  They used the “L-word”, “Liberal”, to paint that opponent as unacceptable to local voters.  It’s funny:  the opposing candidate is a lot of things, but, take it from me, a liberal:   he’s no liberal.  He’s more of a “populist” in the negative, “I’m a victim”, Donald Trump mold.

Blind Justice

All of that is in contrast with the current Republican/MAGA Party, where any deviation from the “Party Line” is snuffed out.  Even in the Justice Department, the ostensibly “blind justice” arm of the Trump government, two prosecutors brought up the past record of a  man convicted of gun offenses and threats to former President Obama.  They put in the sentencing document that the offender was a January 6^th insurrectionist.  The prosecutors did their jobs by outlining the convicted man’s actions in the Capitol, a record of violence.  But, the MAGA line is that there was no Insurrection, just a peaceful “First Amendment” protest outside the Capitol on January 6^th, 2021.  (Don’t believe your “lying” eyes).  Speaking the truth cost those two career prosecutors their jobs.

The sure path to oblivion for members of that Party is to stand against Trump.  There is a long line of “former” politicians, forced out of the political world because they dared to deviate from the “Make America Great Again” dictum.  The one surviving exception; the former “Queen” of MAGA, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia.  She not only stood up against the coverup of the EPSTEIN FILES, but now is calling for health insurance reform to re-open the US Government.  We’ll see how that goes – Trump is snubbing her now, and remains silent on her possible Senate run.

Goals and Methods

The media from all ideological positions, hone-in on Democratic internal strife.  MAGA Republicans claim that the Democratic Socialists are “closet Communists” who represent the entire Democratic Party.  Even Democratic leaders like Senator Chuck Schumer shy away from supporting the “left-wing” of their own Party.  But the reality of the Democratic Party is this.  

Democrats hope to make “…people’s lives a little better”.  That’s true at the National level, and at the local level as well.  How they go about achieving that goal might be different, with labels like “socialist” and “Blue Dog” used to describe methods, but the goal of making things “better” remains the same.  So what’s the difference between Democrats and MAGA/Republicans?

Where’s Your Address?

We know the Democratic over-arching theme.  What we need to discuss is; what is the MAGA/Republican goal?  Perhaps the best way to describe that is the difference between “Wall Street and Main Street”.  On Wall Street, the stock markets are soaring to near record highs.  Big money is making bigger profits, and by that measure, the country is, to quote President Trump, “…better than ever before”.  

But the view from Wall Street is opposite to the view from Main Street.  The cost of living is high; one job isn’t enough to take care of a family; and the everyday issues of living are just… hard.  We are looking at soaring insurance costs, and Christmas shopping with prices up because of the President’s tariffs. 

The MAGA/Republican goal is to “Make Wall Street Great Again”.  One Government action after another helps the rich get richer, regardless of the impact on those who live in the real world of Main Street.  If Democrats are trying to “make people’s live a little better”, it seems that MAGA/Republicans are striving to make sure their wealthy backers get even more wealth. They support Wall Street at the expense of Main Street.  Democrats are committed to Main Street. 

And that’s the difference.

Headline

I just read the headline, “Trump authorizes immediate nuclear missile tests”.   The first thing that came to mind was the old 1953 Bugs Bunny Cartoon.  Bugs was on an assembly line, testing cannon shells.   The shells came by on a conveyor belt, and Bugs took a hammer and banged on the top.  If they didn’t explode, he chalked “DUD” on the side.  “Just think”, he said, “In thirty years I can retire!!!”.  It was funny – but not so much in a world entangled by the Cold War, with nuclear destruction hanging over all our heads.

So, I envision a gloomy Air Force enlisted man, climbing a ladder to the top of a Minuteman III missile in a  Nebraska silo, hammer in one hand, chalk in the other.  Then it dawned on me.  Trump didn’t want to check the missiles.  He wants to blow one up!  

Thirty-Three Years

The United States hasn’t exploded a nuclear weapon since 1992, thirty-three years ago.  George HW Bush was President (Dad, not Son).  It was an underground test in the Nevada desert, where the only sign of detonation was the dust rising from the vibrating surface.  We stopped nuclear testing after that, for several reasons.  First, underground, underwater, or airburst on the surface, nuclear testing was horrible for the environment.  Second, by taking “testing” off the table, it gave the US an advantage in nuclear weapon limitation talks.  Third, we already had enough “test data” to know what worked, and what didn’t.

And finally, by 1993 computers progressed far enough that we could “model” the impacts of differing nuclear weapons.  We no longer needed to actually set one off; the computers could give us all the information we needed to determine what changes to make on the “next generation” of weaponry.

Computational science has come a long way since 1993, the year I bought my first Apple PowerBook.  That was a slow, gray-screened, limited tool.  But it was a “laptop”!!   I expect that nuclear modeling has advanced as well, making environment altering detonations totally unnecessary.  So why, almost out of the blue, did President Trump ordered testing to resume?

Flexing

Donald Trump is nothing if not predictable.  The United States is “flexing” our military muscle all over the world.  We are blowing up boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific, ostensibly because they are smuggling drugs.   Dozens of people, maybe drug runners, maybe innocent fisherman, are dead.  Trump is using the military in the streets of American cities, a “show of force” against crime, that’s a lot more show than force.  And finally, Defense Secretary Hegseth is all “show”, demanding his Department be called “THE WAR DEPARTMENT”.  He’s more worried about the “Warriors with Abs” then with real military preparedness.

So it should be no surprise that a President fixated on demonstrating strength, would want to use the ultimate weapons.  He already dropped the MOAB on Afghanistan ( Massive Ordinance Air Black Bomb or colloquially, Mother of All Bombs) costing millions of dollars.  This past year, he’s used several of the GBU-57 “bunker buster bombs” on Iran, at $3.5 million apiece.

 But Trump has access to the most powerful arsenal in the world.  How could he NOT want to set a few off, just to let the world know that he has the biggest – missiles.  Besides, it fits his normal foreign policy position:  unknowable, erratic, Quixotic, arbitrary.  What goes for one Nation, say Israel, is completely different than another, like Ukraine.  Trump intentionally wants to keep the world off balance with untenable positions: threatening China with 100% tariffs for example.  So how could he not use the ultimate “Trump Card”, or at least let the world see that they still work?  

The Cost

There is the obvious environmental cost of setting off a nuclear weapon.  And there is the danger of “normalizing” nuclear weapons, reversing American policy of the last three decades.  Recently, only North Korea has detonated nuclear weapons, and that was eight years ago.  But if the United States opens the door, there’s no doubt that Russia, China, and perhaps other nuclear powers will feel required to join in .  

That’s not good for the world.  Other than outlaw states like North Korea, the world has stepped back from the nuclear edge at the height of the Cold War in the 1980’s.  Now, Donald Trump wants us to “step up” to the edge again, all for his Presidential vanity.  

Maybe we should give him the chalk and hammer.

This is NOT a Sunday story – It’s a very political look at our times.

Marathon Training

I am not a marathon runner.  In fact, after decades of coaching and running distance, my knees won’t handle “the strain” of  running anymore.  I am relegated (on the shelf) to an elliptical machine.  You just don’t get much scenery or companionship on those “runs”. 

But I’ve been around plenty of marathoners over the years, and  I understand the dedication it takes to cover 26.2 miles on foot.  One of the “sacred” moments in marathon training, is the Sunday “long run”.  The marathon distance has a different impact on the body than shorter races.  It’s actually pretty simple.  Most well trained human bodies can store about twenty miles worth of energy.  But, somewhere around that twenty mile mark, the marathoner hits “the wall”. All of the regular stored energy is exhausted, and muscles have to “switch fuels”, literally in mid-stride.  

Some runners can’t get through that transition, cramp up, and are unable to continue.  The Sunday “long run” takes runners to that edge, without pushing too far beyond it.  That way their bodies learn to adapt, without needing as much post-run recovery (they’ll need that after the full marathon).  It’s a physiological necessity to “teach” a body how to deal with “the wall”.

ICE Block

Even folks my age still compete.  And that leads us to a whole different story.  A sixty-seven year-old marathoner was coming home from a Sunday “long-run” with his training team in Chicago.  Of course he was tired; long-run days burn a lot of fuel, even you don’t get to the twenty-mile mark.  He turned his car onto his street and found ICE blocking the way.

He rolled down his window and asked to go home, only to be “greeted” with demands that he move his car.  As he started to explain, the car door jerked open, and two “bully-boy” ICE agents in full combat regalia dragged him out of the car.  Did he resist?  Maybe, he didn’t have a lot of choice.  He was a “skinny” distance runner against powerful young agents.  He was surprised, even shocked at their response. Wouldn’t you resist in the same situation (Reddit)?

Neighbors

The neighborhood, already on the street, reacted.  Folks ran up to the ICE agents, screaming for them to release their friend. (By the way, the runner was a US citizen).  Profanity rang out, as ICE agents threatened any civilian who dared to get in the way of their “apprehension”.  Ultimately, the sixty-seven year old was hospitalized, with broken ribs and internal bleeding.  Those injures were from the knees driven into his back as he was thrust face-down on the pavement.

This is America:  a normally quiet street on Sunday in Chicago, prepared for their annual kids Halloween parade.  Instead, tear gas filled the air.  If it was your community, your neighbor face-down on the ground, what would you do?

Violence Begats Violence

Five years ago we watched George Floyd murdered in slow-motion on the street in Minneapolis.  Police stood “guard” over their fellow officer as he slowly crushed the life from Floyd over nine minutes.  We know, because we could watch all nine minutes on cell phone video, courageously taken by a bystander.  The officer on top of Floyd, Derek Chauvin, was convicted and sentenced 22 ½ years in prison for second degree murder.   

Bystanders recorded their neighbor in Chicago on the ground as well, despite ICE agents aggressively ordering everyone to stand aside.  Violence begats violence.  So how long will Americans stand aside and let ICE act as “bully-boys”?  At what point will the neighbors say that this terrorizing campaign is enough?  What will the consequences be when ICE creates violence and a neighborhood responds in kind?

Respect

We are all taught to respect authority.  On a local level, I have a ton of respect for the police, prosecutors, and those others who risk their lives to protect mine. I know them, and I know how difficult their job can be.  But at what point does the Trump Administration depend on that “respect”, to cover their own atrocious behavior? That’s exactly what they want:  folks terrorized in their own streets and homes.  ICE directs violence to enforce Trump’s own political views.  In fact, there’s not enough violence for Trump yet.  Some ICE Regional directors aren’t “all-in” on the abuse.  They are being removed, and more compliant replacements inserted to do whatever it takes to keep their job.  

That includes injuring kids, pregnant women, and sixty-seven year old runners home from “long-run Sunday”. And what about those who really are undocumented migrants?   Well, God help them, because ICE is on the way.  What will the bystanders, us “regular” American citizens do:  continue to stand by and watch, or take action?  What do you expect?

Nuts and Bolts           

There is nothing so “nuts and bolts” in politics than setting up political districts.  What used to be a “gift”, knowing which areas voted one party or the other, is now an analytical science.   In the old days it was “institutional knowledge”, the old “pols” could tell you how this street or that block voted. Now it is simple plusses and minuses in a digital world.  Computer programs have sliced and diced our nation into almost pre-ordained chunks of votes.  Ohio is a classic example.

Look, everyone knows that the cities of Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Dayton, Akron and Toledo are going to trend significantly Democratic.  And we know that the glorious fields of corn and soybeans spread between those cities are going to be significantly Republican.  That’s not “advanced political thought”.  Really, it’s just common sense.   

So we used to make political districts just like we used to make apple pie.  Sure, there’s apples and there’s crust.  But what went into the apples and the crust; all of the small additions that Grandma used to put in, that’s where the real differences were made.   But today, you plug the apple, cinnamon, sugar, flour, butter all into a computer, which will then “put out” the “perfect pie”.  And you can tell the computer what “perfecter” you want:  more apple, cinnamon, or butter. The computer varies the outcome to give you the exactly the pie you want.

Gerrymandering

And we used to cut that pie in fairly normal slices, keeping pieces in regular shapes and sizes.  Occasionally a piece of apple filling might slip into another piece, but generally our districts were recognizable geographic areas.  Today, in our computer driven political world, a “piece” of the pie might stretch in a narrow strip from one side to the other, carefully avoiding other sections.  It might look like a snake, or a duck, or, as it did in 1812 in Massachusetts, a salamander.  Since that “salamander” was crafted by then-Governor Elbridge Gerry, it became known as a “Gerrymander”, the term we use for pre-ordained districts today.

So who controls the “pie” here in Ohio?  It’s a committee: the Governor, the State Auditor,  the Secretary of State, the Speaker of the House, the Senate Majority Leader, and the Senate and House Minority Leaders.   The “Commission” was created by a popularly voted Constitutional Amendment (2015), designed to end partisan gerrymandering, and make “fair” districts. 

Here’s the problem: put five Republicans and two Democrats in a room, and tell them to divide the state fairly. Right — that works about as well as you think it does.  

Ah, but the outcome has to be approved by the Ohio Supreme Court.  Surely the highest Court in the state would be impartial, sticking to the spirit of non-partisanship shown in the 2015 Amendment process.  There are seven members of the Court, six are Republicans, one a Democrat.  One is the son of the serving Governor, another is the son’s best friend.  So, not surprisingly, the Court finds a way to “allow” the Republican plan to become Ohio law.  It’s an all “Red” Ohio Apple pie.

Numbers

Here’s the numbers.  In the 2024 Presidential election, over 70% of Ohioans came out to vote.  55% voted for Donald Trump, 43% voted for Kamala Harris.  It was a clear Republican win, especially in a state that only twelve years before voted 51% for Barack Obama to 47% for Mitt Romney.   So let’s give Ohio Republicans their due:  Ohio is at best a 55-45 Republican state, very “Red”.

In the United States Congress, Ohio has fifteen representatives:  ten Republicans, and five Democrats.  While we may vote 55-45, in Congress we are 66% Republican.  In the State House of Representatives, there are 65 Republicans to 34 Democrats, again 66% Republican.  And in the State Senate, Ohio has 24 Republicans to 9 Democrats, over 70% Republican.    In the state legislature that 66% number is very important.  It gives them a built-in ability to override the Governor, even a Republican Governor, who might veto an extremist Republican bill.

Ohio remains Republican.  A Democrat in Ohio is voting in pre-determined political districts.  When I cast my ballot for a Democratic state representative, Senator, or US Congressman, I know my vote is cast in vain.  My legislative districts are carefully drawn to guarantee that the Republican wins.  The current Gerrymandering, now on computer driven steroids, is able to split my county, even my little city, in order to dilute my vote, and amplify my Republican neighbor’s.  

Choosing Voters

In the old days, before the  computerized “Red Map Plan”, districts chose their representatives. (Thanks a lot, MSNBC commentator Michael Steele, former Republican National Chairman).  Sure, Democratic areas voted for Democrats, and Republicans areas chose Republicans.  But today, the legislators can plug their proposed districts in a computer program, and slice and dice communities to get the electorate they want.  Voters don’t chose candidates; candidates chose their voters.

And that “ass backwards” approach guarantees not just Republican control, but Republicans that find it totally unnecessary to even negotiate with their Democratic colleagues.  In fact, it encourages extremism, because the “real contests” aren’t in the general election.  The determining election is the primary, between Republicans, where the votes are dominated by the extremists in the Party.   So when a state legislator proposes a law to ban humans from marrying Artificial Intelligence computers, or pre-determines for high school students that a “successful life” requires jobs, marriage, then family (not making that up), both have a great opportunity to become our laws.  

And,  for my Democratic friends:  it all sounds like doom and gloom – time to move out of state.  There is one ray of sunshine.  Neither political party can Gerrymander the entire state.  On the re-districting commission, there are three seats elected statewide.  Change the Governor, Auditor and Secretary of State, and Democrats can literally change our world.  Oh, and changing the Ohio Supreme Court (also statewide election) would help too.

This Week’s List

• 100% Tariff on China
• US bombs boats in Caribbean and Pacific
• Government Shutdown
• No Kings March
• Sanctions on Russian Energy Companies
• Teetering Ceasefire in Gaza
• Poster kerfuffle in Washington
• Where did the East Wing of the White House go?
• Trump’s screams at Zelenskyy, again
• Immigration Czar Homan took an FBI $50,000 bribe, Vice President doesn’t know
• Trump wants to “bill” Department of Justice $230,000,000
• Trump threatens to jail Illinois Governor and Chicago Mayor
• Trump threatens to sue Ontario, Canada
• NBA gambling scandal
• NY Attorney General Leticia James arraigned in Federal Court
• President suggests we might attack Venezuelan territory
• Trump leaves to tour Asia
• And, of course, The EPSTEIN FILES

Firehose

One thing for sure – Donald Trump leads by “volume”.  There’s an overflow of information and events, so much that’s a difficult to “keep up”.  The public impact of the  “No Kings March” just six days ago, with more than seven million Americans protesting this President, is drowned in the flurry of events since.  

All of that’s not a coincidence, not a mistake.  It’s a well-conceived effort by the Trump Administration to keep “the opposition” off balance.  And it works.  Congressional opposition is forced to “pick and choose” which outrageous action to attack.  And when different leaders choose different issues, it makes the Democrats look unorganized and scattered.  

The “firehose” of events even keeps Republicans off balance.  They become afraid to say anything, because so much is going on they can’t keep up.  As the old saying goes, “Better to be silent and look stupid, then open your mouth and prove it”.  And for the general public, it’s simply exhausting.  We’re drawn like a moth from candle flame to fireplace to inferno, unable to focus on a single issue.  It provides cover for whatever else the Administration does that might be objectionable. (Perhaps I should say whatever the Administration does that is not objectionable).

Across the Bow

In other discussion forums, I’ve been waging a debate over the American actions on the “high seas”.  We are sending both drones and USAF Fighters to destroy boats in international waters.  The Administration claims those boats are transporting illegal drugs, mostly Fentanyl.  Since Trump has declared a war (a Presidential action not sanctioned by Congress) on both drugs and on international gangs like Tren de Aragua, he claims that those boats are “fair game” for destruction.  Dozens on those boats have already been killed.

The US Coast Guard has “interdicted” drug boats for centuries.  Before it was drugs, it was illegal alcohol in the “rum runner” days of  Prohibition.  In fact,  the Coast Guard was established in the 1790’s to collect taxes from incoming commercial shipping. Interdiction means stop, search, seize and arrest.  It’s the ancient Naval action of “firing a shot across the bow”, threatening destruction unless the boat allows the Coast Guard (or Navy) to board. 

It’s a matter of humanity.  Even drug dealers in the United States aren’t subject to the death penalty.   There should be some form of “due process”, of providing evidence of criminal activity.  And the Coast Guard interdiction is that same process, this time under “International Law” on the high seas.

But just blowing up a boat; without any “shot across the bow”, without direct knowledge of their actions and cargo, is barbaric.  It’s not the action of a civilized nation, in fact, it the kind of rogue behavior we’d attribute to terrorists of the past.  Add to that; the Trump Administration then proudly shows video of these executions on television for Americans to be “proud of”. It’s just another part of the tsunami of actions.

Kerfuffle

Steve Schmidt is a former Republican campaign operative, including as senior advisor to John McCain.  After the rise of Donald Trump he led the Republican opposition, then left the Party to help found the “Lincoln Project” opposing Trump.  Since that time he set up another political opposition group, called the “Save America Movement”.   At the moment, Save America is trying to be a gadfly to Trump’s advisors.  

Save America plastered Washington, DC with posters of Trump Deputy Chief of Staff Steven Miller, with the phrase, “Fascism Isn’t Pretty” across the bottom.  It worked. Miller “ordered” the posters removed.  Now Save America has come back with posters that are glued to poles and locations in DC, requiring them to be scraped off, instead of just pulled.  It’s all “light hearted”, but of course it’s not.  But, at least this time, it’s keeping the Trump folks dealing with “nonsense”, instead of the rest of the Nation.  

EPSTEIN FILES

And, like a riptide off the beach, the EPSTEIN FILES still lurks below the waters.  Is Speaker Johnson keeping the House closed because of the shutdown (not required)?  Or is he just avoiding swearing in the newly elected Democratic Congressman from Arizona, to prevent a majority vote requiring the Department of Justice to release the full EPSTEIN FILES.  

The United States is in crisis.  The Government is shutdown.  Most Federal employees are furloughed, and most of the ones still working aren’t getting paid.  Air Traffic Controllers, the US Military, the FBI, all “essential workers”, are missing paychecks.  And what is the President of the United States doing?  He’s leaving town, going to Asia for a week, allowing the shutdown to fester.

Clearly that’s not in the Nation’s best interest.  But maybe it’s in the best interest of Donald Trump, when it comes to the EPSTEIN FILES.  How much is Trump involved, and how many of his friends are involved as well?  We don’t know.  But one concern is that American actions in the world, from Venezuela to the East Wing of the White House, might be to cover his involvement.  And for those who say Trump wasn’t involved – the answer is simple.  Release the EPSTEIN FILES and prove it.

PS – this just in: Steve Bannon says Trump is running in 2028 – the Constitution be damned!!

Dancing Frogs

Before we get started, here’s a funny story out of Portland.  There is an ongoing demonstration in front of the ICE facility there.  It’s not the nightly “battle” of the George Floyd era.  It’s simply folks expressing their displeasure with the actions of ICE in Portland.  There are regular folks with signs and there are religious leaders praying for ICE to stop. One minister was shot in the head by ICE with a pepper ball from the roof of the building (that’s true).  

And then, there’s the dancing frogs.  The frogs captured the imagination of the Nation, big, cartoony frogs standing up to ICE agents in full battle regalia.  Supposedly, one day the frogs showed up with fishing poles, donuts on the hook as bait.  What were they doing:  ICE fishing. 

I admit,I had a tough time “fact-checking” that story – but even if it’s just a “tale” (a frog tail?) it’s still a good one.  If they didn’t do that, they should.

Number Six

Saturday I was Umpire number Six at the Central District Cross Country Championships.  An umpire at a cross country meet is a passive task.  You watch the runners go by (twice each race, twelve races total).  You make sure they stay on the course, in between the white lines painted on the grass.  Umpires watch and report athletes who foul each other in some way, or discover athletes who are in illegal uniforms, or call out other illegal aids from non-competitors.  And, a couple of times during the six hour meet, I went to the aid of an injured athlete.

If all that sounds exciting, it really wasn’t.   The mere presence of umpires keeps runners from doing anything stupid.  So, for most of the day I’m “just an observer”, a guy in a white shirt with a white signal flag, trying not to get “coach-y” and get caught up in the competition.  And, of course, I get to see many old friends from my decades as a high school cross country coach.

Cross Country runners are their teammates best fans.  When the boys team is running, the girls team is cheering and vice versa. And, inevitably, there’s “that parent” with the cowbell (just what we need, more cowbells!!).  Folks say some interesting things out there on the course, many that I don’t think would motivate me as a runner with two miles in and one more to go.

So it didn’t surprise me to hear chanting during the race.  But this chant broke my intense “official” concentration:  “O-H, I-O, Donald Trump has got to go!!!!”.  

Down the Road

That wasn’t part of the meet.  But just down the road, hundreds of Americans were protesting the Trump Administration in the “No Kings” march.  It was the local town; Hilliard’s version of the event.  And there were smaller marches all over Central Ohio; in Mt Gilead and Pickerington, Newark and Westerville, Mt. Vernon, Grove City and in deep-red Somerset out in Perry County, as well as the “big” rally downtown at the Statehouse. 

They joined an estimated seven million Americans who rallied, marched and chanted on October 18^th.  The “No Kings” movement is a demonstration of Americans showing “No Fear” of retribution by the Trump Administration.  They sent a message, one that MAGA-Republicans certainly heard.   “No Kings” wasn’t the radical-left, George Soros backed, “Antifa”, undocumented, Marxist, Communist, America “hating” violent rioters that President Trump, Speaker Johnson and the rest warned about.  They were Moms and Dads with their kids, Grandparents with white hair, teenagers in their first demonstration, and just regular folks who finally found a way to stand up against the America we are becoming.  They were NOT AFRAID, something that it’s getting harder to say in this era of MAGA repression.  

No one was arrested.  Seven million demonstrators:  no violence, burning, overturned cars, or tear gas.  The only police actions were to stop the few counter-demonstrations that went too far.  

Hope

What did they achieve?  In a one word answer, hope.  Many opponents of the Trump Administration worry that they are alone, isolated from the “Resistance”.  They feel helpless against the impact of tariffs, ICE “vanishing” neighbors down the street, and a President who makes a public spectacle of executing Venezuelan fisherman on the high seas.  

Seven million Americans stood up on Saturday.  Some even missed their Saturday college football game on TV, as if that was some kind of American sin.  Gosh, even in O-H-I-O (if you know, you know) the big rally with ten thousand people happened right after the Buckeyes kicked off in Wisconsin.  It didn’t matter.  Standing up to Trump authoritarianism was more important.  

I was unable to march.  But, very quietly, under my breath, at Umpire position number six, I was joining in with the good folks of Hilliard. 

They gave me hope too.

“Where Oh Where, Is Congress tonight?  Why did you leave us here all alone?  I’ve searched the world over looking for Government, but you’re dodging problems, so ‘poof’ you is gone.” Borrowed from Ronnie Milsap and the TV show Hee Haw, – 1977.

The Speaker

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has a dilemma.  He can stay in Washington, refusing to negotiate with Democrats and look helpless at the government closure.  Or he can send his GOP majority home, so the Democrats don’t have anyone to talk to (and his own majority party won’t pressure the Speaker to actually do something). It’s Fall Break for the MAGA members, as their Republican boycott of the House is on its fifth week.  No undergrad ever had it so good.

The Speaker of the House is second in line to be President, right after the Vice President.  When Nancy Pelosi held the gavel, she was the most powerful woman in the Nation, able to run her slim majority with an iron hand in a velvet glove.  Many would argue that she was so powerful that she brought down her own President, Joe Biden, only weeks before the Democratic Convention in 2024.  Pelosi, like her or not, was a giant; diminutive Johnson, not so much.

Johnson deeply understands that he holds his job at the whim of Donald Trump.  As long as he toes the Trump line, the President remains in support.  But should Johnson actually try to do something outside of Trump’s dominion, he could go the way of other “former” Republicans leaders like Kevin McCarthy.  As the Washington saying goes:  it will be time to go “write your book”.

What Trump Wants

So what does Trump want?  It’s pretty simple, actually:  to be unfettered by Congressional controls.  Biden struggled to pass legislation, to make deals with “the other side” to get things done.  There’s a list: the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the American Rescue Plan, and the Infrastructure Act.  Trump chooses to govern by executive order.  He wanted his “Big, Beautiful Bill”(BBB), essentially a massive tax cut for the rich, and was able to bully even the fiscal conservatives in the Republican Party who ultimately fell in line.  It’s all he wanted from Congress, and now that he’s got it, they can remain on “break”. 

The Democrats are still fighting the battle of the “Big, Beautiful Bill”, now through the “enabling legislation”, the budget.  They have found the “soft spot” in the Republican plan.  In the next three weeks, health insurance renewal notices will go out nationwide.  And with the funding cuts of the BBB, those bills are going to be a lot higher.

Trump was elected by the post-Covid inflation.  He was able to argue that it was “Biden’s fault” (and Harris’s fault too) that prices went so high.  But now, Trump “owns” high prices.  Today, a 16 ounce Ribeye at the local Kroger’s cost $21.99.  Gas prices still hover around $3.00/gallon.  But if health insurance costs go up dramatically, a lot more Americans are going to “know the pain”.  

Does Trump care:  probably not.  He doesn’t have to run for election again.  (OK, there’s the whole “third term” thing, but if he’s going to ignore the Constitution, then clearly finding enough votes to win won’t be the problem).  But all those vacationing Republican members of Congress do.  And the pressure is growing on them to come on back to DC, and work out a deal.

Excuses

You can hear it in Johnson’s excuses.  First it was all about “health care for illegals”.  After that was disproved, then it was all about “health care for folks who don’t work”.  Now that’s kind of disappearing as well.  This week their tactic is; “Democrats made the Affordable Care Act, and it was never affordable.  Now Republicans have to fix it”.  They’ve been trying to “fix” the ACA since 2012, with no success.  (Facts are: Democrats made the Affordable Care Act with multiple sources of funding, which Republicans and the Republican Supreme Court consistently cut).

But the political pressure of those insurance bills is unrelenting.  John Thune, the Republican Senate Majority Leader, is now hinting that it’s time to “negotiate” with Democrats.  It’s really a simple deal:  it takes sixty votes to get the budget through the Senate.  All fifty-three Republicans voting leaves them seven votes short.  Three Senators, two Democrats and an Independent have “crossed over”, leaving Republicans  still in need of four votes.  

Momentum

The original “demand” was that the Democrats “have to vote” for the budget to re-open the Government.  But the onus is on the majority to find the requisite votes.  It’s what politics is all about, making a deal.  And even if the Senate reaches a compromise (likely to happen), then the House would have to agree (not so likely).  But the biggest problem is that neither Thune nor Johnson are free to negotiate, without the permission of Donald Trump. 

It’s October 20^th.  The shutdown began on October 1^st.  There’s major economic ramifications of a massive Federal workforce not getting paid, and most not even able to continue doing their jobs.  The United States is like a big oceangoing passenger ship.  It can coast for a long time without engines, simply on momentum.  But it will gradually slow to a stop, and so will the American government, with huge economic impact.  And meanwhile, the Republican members of Congress hide out at home, and the American people dread going to the mailbox.  

That insurance bill is going to hurt, and vacationing GOP Congressmen and Senators are likely to feel the pain.

Resistance

The resistance is struggling.  I can tell, by the whispered conversation in the hallway; by the loud yawn from the staff, waiting to close an empty room.  It’s faltering:  what started out with a vengeance at the beginning of the Trump Administration has slowed.  To be truthful, it is low on fuel, almost adrift in a terrifying sea of authoritarianism.  What led to this failure?

In part, it is fear.  Not the “fear itself”, Franklin Roosevelt kind of fear, but real fear, practical fear.  What will happen to my job, my family, my life?  If I am a “resistor”, will the secret police, dressed in camo and masks, come to my home? The black helicopters that the crazies on the “other side” always feared, are now theirs.  The “inmates are in charge of the asylum”. Ask those poor folks in Chicago, with masked agents fast roping onto their roof.  Will my neighbors, just as strong in the belief of the sacredness of their cause, turn on me?  

Sunshine Patriots

In February it seemed like a reasonable risk, a sacrifice that American citizens were obligated to make.  Thomas Paine, the Conscience of the American Revolution, said it this way.

“THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.” 

It always sounded so compelling.  But now we know what the “summer soldier, the sunshine patriot” was thinking.  The alternate path, shrinking from the crisis and hiding from the obligation, looks so easy, so safe.  People are threatened.  They lost their jobs, moved their homes, were forced to hide.  Some have even died.  It’s real, now.  It’s easy to “shrink”, to “stay small” and hope the storm will pass over.  Let someone else be the one that stands.  

Came for Me

First they came for the Communists.
And I did not speak out, Because I was not a Communist.
Then they came for the Socialists.
And I did not speak out, Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists.
And I did not speak out, Because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews.
And I did not speak out, Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me.
And there was no one left To speak out for me.

German Pastor Martin Neimöller wrote this famous poem, “First They Came”.  It spoke of the inevitable outcome of authoritarian rule, spreading from “easy” targets to everyone.  Even as a Lutheran Pastor and Nazi sympathizer before World War II, Neimöller himself ended up in a Nazi concentration camp.  He did not “shrink” enough, and the whirlwind finally took him in its grasp.

And that’s the point.  Ultimately, we will all get swept up by the “secret police”.  First they came for the migrants, and I wasn’t a migrant so I didn’t speak out.  It isn’t far-fetched at all to see that, in the end, they will come for me.   

Fatigue

Thomas Paine again:

“Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess. Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigues of supporting it.”

Fear and fatigue go hand in hand.  It was easy to stand up in April, fresh from defeat and hoping to turn the tide.  Now it’s October, and the drip-drip-drip of authoritarian action has worn us down.  Some are choosing to “go small”. 

No Choice

The point:  we really don’t have that choice.   We must resist, now.  We must fight this fight now, or we will certainly have to fight it later when the authoritarian forces gain even more power.  General Douglas MacArthur is not even on my top ten list of “favorite” military leaders.  He was a General/Politician, a bad mix of power and ego.  But, like most politicians, he had a great speech writer.  And when he came back to the Philippines to fight the Japanese conquerors, he said, “I Have Returned”.  And he called on the Filipino people to join him in his quest: 

“…For your homes and hearths, strike! For future generations of your sons and daughters, strike! In the name of your sacred dead, strike! Let no heart be faint. Let every arm be steeled.” 

So we must be “steeled” now.  And, before my “friends on the other side” scream out, I’m not calling for violence or assassination.  I am calling for Dr. King’s resistance, non-violent protest to challenge authoritarian inequity.  There still is a chance to peacefully resist, to change the course of America back to one that “bends toward justice”.   But, we need to strike now, to speak out for the least of us, because if we do not, as Pastor Neimöller found out, they will come for the “most” of us.

Framing

Words often determine the “structure” of debate.  In the argument over abortion; the anti-abortion crowd won the framing battle with “pro-life”.  Those that favor allowing abortions are “pro-choice”, but that doesn’t have the same power.  What’s the obvious opposite of “pro-life”, well, “pro-death” of course.  Winning the label battle is a huge step towards winning the political debate.

The same is true with our current debate over migrants.  One side speaks of “undocumented”, migrants in the United States, or to use the old ethnic insult, those “without papers”.  The other side uses the term “illegals”, describing those that violated border policies to enter the country.  Both of those are loaded terms.  “Undocumented” are folks who failed to file paperwork, something most Americans can understand.  “Illegals”, as Stephen Miller would be the first to say, are criminals.  And that’s how they choose to frame the debate.

Apparatchiks 

We are in an unprecedented time of “transparency”.  So much of what we say, publicly and privately, is now “codified” on digital memory.  What used to be an actual conversation, my mouth to your ears, is now an email, or a text, or a video recorded for posterity.  We used to know what was “in public”, and what could be whispered quietly for only the few to hear.  Now, those whispers tend to be texts in the dark of night.  While your phone screen may be on “nighttime” mode, those texts remain in a record.  The fact that you were in bed in pajamas, makes no difference.

That’s what the Young Republicans just discovered.  To step back for just a second, both the Republican and Democratic Parties have a “youth division”.  Young has a little different meaning in the political world, since the minimum age to vote is eighteen.  “Youth” politicians, are described as those from eighteen to forty years old (which doesn’t sound that “young” to me, even at my advanced age).  In both political parties, these “young up-and-comers” represent the future leadership.  They may not be the candidates out in front of the electorate, but often are the future precinct or county chairmen, or the staffers who work for elected officials.  In the old Soviet world there was a great word for them:  “apparatchiks”.

For Real

Even forty is young enough to “live” in the text and social media world.  And since everyone does it, it’s easy to fall into a false sense of privacy.  Telegram, supposedly a more secure texting app, still has it weaknesses.  But the Young Republican leaders of New York, Kansas, Arizona and Vermont didn’t realize the risk until it was too late.  The web-based journal Politico, got their entire text chain.  Here are some samples.

•             – Everyone that votes no is going to the gas chamber
•             – You’re giving nationals to much credit and expecting the Jew to be honest
•             – Great.  I love Hitler
•             – I’m ready to watch people burn now
•             – I’d go to the zoo if I wanted to watch monkey ball 
•             – When do we start bullying dude?
•             – He also hates the Jews
•             – They love watermelon people
•             – If we ever has a leak of this chat we would be cooked fr fr  
  • (translation:  for real, for real)
•             And many, many more (Politico.)

Conversation Frame

So what is the structure of their internal discussion?  Well, it’s about anti-Semitism, the Holocaust, Nazism, and about pure old fashioned American racism.  They are using these terms of hate and historic massacre, to describe what they hope to do to their political opponents.  And, in this case, not the members of the other political party, but their internal political rivals. 

Do I think the “Young Republicans” are not-so closeted Nazis?   I don’t know. But they cavalierly  use the events of the Holocaust to describe their own actions.  That, at the minimum, desensitizing them to the very real historic impacts of the era.  And that framework  is also clearly accepted by the members of the “Club”, at least the several involved in the text chat.  As we saying goes: “If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck”.  

And members of the larger Republican “club” accept them as well.  Vice President Vance “poo-pooed” their words, calling them “kids”.  Vance implied that no one should be blamed for the mistakes of their youth (NBC). But they aren’t kids.  They are, as my son would so bluntly put it, “Grown Ass Men”.

What About

And in true MAGA fashion, Vance then pivoted to a “what-about”.  What about Virginia Democratic Attorney General candidate Jay Jones?  A few years ago, he sent some ill-advised texts, one saying about the Republican Virginia House Speaker, “(He) should get two bullets”.  The comment were in the heat of a legislative battle over gun control.  But they were stupid.  Jones was a “Grown Ass Man”.  And he took complete responsibility for them, apologized, and acknowledged his own stupidity.  

No one in the Democratic Party is saying, “He was just a kid”.  But that’s exactly what the Vice President of the United States is saying.  Anti-Semitism, Nazi admiration, direct and disgusting racism:  just kids.  Kind of like the “locker room talk” we started with back in 2016, when the Republican candidate for President talked about “grabbing them in the…”.  We all remember the rest.  

Fiddle About – from the Rock Opera Tommy by the Who

Nixon 

Our internet-fueled world moves swiftly.  Yesterday, the least likely President of all achieved a peace deal in the Middle East.  There’s an old political phrase, “Nixon went to China”.  It’s ironic, because Nixon made his political “bones” by being a rabid anti-Communist.  So when Nixon really did go to China, to sit with arch-Communists Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, he may have been the only American politician with the political ability to do so.  Trump is much the same. Perhaps, for the first time, he really was the “only one” who could solve the Middle East.  I hope it lasts.

Meanwhile the United States Government remains “technically” closed.  Congress has failed to reach a budget agreement, now going on for two weeks.  And because there is no budget, there is no money available to continue government functions.  That used to be a “HUGE” deal.  

Remember the late 1990’s, when the government shutdown, and all the normal White House staffers were sent home.  Only the senior advisors, and the unpaid interns remained to continue “running” the government.  One of those interns, a twenty-one year old woman, brought pizza for the senior staff, and ended up having sex with the President.  We remember how that ended.  As a high school senior government teacher, I had to dance around the meaning of the word “is”, and the meaning of the word “sex”.

Abnormal Times

I don’t see any “furloughs” in the White House.  They seem to be ignoring all of the “trappings” of a Government shutdown.  Probably safer for the young interns there.

In “normal times”, there would be on-going negotiations between the majority leaders and minority leaders in the Congress, and a President trying to get the doors open again.  But these are not normal times.

Trump left to go to the Middle East.  House Speaker Johnson refuses to talk to Minority Leader Jefferies, and won’t allow the House to come back into session.  He won’t even swear-in a newly elected Congresswoman from Arizona. (That might have something to do with a House move to force the Justice Department to reveal the “entire” EPSTEIN FILE). And while the Senate is at least in session, they don’t seem to be talking either.  This shutdown feels semi-permanent.  

Blame Game

At first, Republicans blamed the shutdown on Democrats wanting to give “undocumented migrants health care”.  But the reality of Federal law snuffed out that argument. Law prohibits spending Federal money on the undocumented, with an exception for hospital reimbursement for lifesaving care.  When that fell apart, the Republicans simply said that they won’t spend the money.

Meanwhile, Democrats are waiting for the November insurance bills to hit American kitchen tables.  The expected increases, Dems hope, will force Republicans to start negotiating.  Pressure has to come from somewhere, and Democrats hope the Republican base will be shocked by the rising costs, and start to push their leadership.

American leaders are “fiddling about”.  Not much is getting done in Congress, and the President seems pleased to be unfettered with the legal niceties of legislative approval.  So what’s the problem?

Real World Problems

Government workers are facing their first payday without a check.  Their last full payment was on October 1.  That’s 1.6 million workers in the United States, a big chunk of the economy that will be unable to spend for rent and food.  There are government services curtailed:  social security checks will go out, but processing of new or changed social security benefits is delayed.  TSA agents and FAA air-traffic controllers are required to work – but they aren’t getting paid.  National Parks remain open, but unsupervised, and un-serviced (think trash and restrooms). 

When will the shutdown end?  When the pressure grows so great on the politicians that they are required to talk to each other.  Will that be when the Republican base starts screaming about insurance, or when the pressure on any four Democratic Senators who “hold the line” of the shutdown gets so bad, that they decide to fold.  Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman and Nevada’s Catherine Cortez-Masto, along with Maine Independent Angus King, already have.

We’d expect bleary-eyed Senators to be talking all night.  In other times, we’d have a President locking everyone in a White House conference room until they came out with a deal.  But today, there seems to be no appetite for negotiations, and the Federal doors remain closed.  

It’s just another sign of our polarized times; so divided, that we can’t even talk about it. All we can do is “Fiddle About”.  

Song for this essay – For What It’s Worth – Buffalo Springfield (Stephen Stills)

Spirit

I am a terrorist.  I hate America. I am, believe or not, against fascism.  I guess that makes me ANTIFA (anti-fascist).  At least, that’s what the President and his MAGA-Republicans in Washington are telling me.  Next Saturday, many Americans will protest against the fascist/authoritarian actions of the Trump Administration.  My family and friends and my spirit will be marching with them.  The Republican leaders may call them terrorists and America haters, but those marching are acting in the spirit of America, as old as the Boston Tea Party, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

So let’s get a few of things straight.  I’m working on Saturday, at an all-day Cross Country meet, and I will be unable to join the “No Kings” march here in Central Ohio.  And that’s annoying, but a commitment I made months ago, before the march was announced.  While I’ll wear the “black and white” of track official on top, underneath, nearer my heart, will be a “No Kings” T-shirt.  

Petition

The government cannot makes laws, or act, against the freedom of political expression.  They cannot make laws or act against the right to assemble.  And, they cannot deny the right of citizens to petition the government for redress of grievances.  If those words all sound familiar, they should.  It’s the First Amendment to the United States Constitution, three of the five guaranteed restrictions on the Government (religion and the press are the other two). It’s the first thing the Founding Fathers added to the original document.  So citizens gathering in the public “square”, speaking out against government action, and asking for change, are directly protected.

I participated in the first “No Kings” March last spring.  It was a picture of America.  There were “radicals”, who want dramatic change, even Socialists (Oh MY!!).  There were little kids, running around in red-white-and-blue t-shirts.  I saw lots of young folks who were driven to the street by the injustice they saw on their phone screens every night.  And, there were a lot of “Boomers”, my generation.  So what are all of those Medicare recipients doing out in the street, “…singing songs and carrying signs”? 

Boomer Guilt

The answer is pretty simple.  We know what America should be, and we know what America looks like right now.  Us “Boomers” feel an obligation (and guilt) that the country we had so much hope for descended so quickly into the authoritarian abyss we see today.  We owe the next generations a better place. Our country, that just a few short months ago seemed “…on the long arc of the moral universe, bending towards justice” is now bending backwards.  We need to straighten that arc out, again.

And, deep in the “Boomer Memory” (maybe easier to remember than the location of our glasses, phone and car keys) are the marches of our youth.  They (the Government) didn’t want us out in the streets then either, back in the 1960’s and early 70’s.  We marched against a useless war, and called for political change.  We wanted civil rights for all Americans, regardless of the color of their skin.  We learned that civil “action” can lead to change, even with the most conservative leaders like President Nixon or Governor Rhodes.   

Frogs

Really, I want to get a “frog suit” and join the protests in Portland.  I want to dance in the streets in front of the ICE “agents” (are they really trained Federal officers, or just contracted thugs?).  If that’s what ANTIFA does, I’m all-in.  And if the Federal Government decides to attack the Frogs, as “dangerous interference with ICE operations”, then who is the real loser in that encounter?  The frog dancers, or the bullies with zip-tie handcuffs, trying to bind frog-arms?  Does Portland really need the National Guard to “put-down” a costumed protest?  

In all seriousness, the United States is in crisis.  The President is sending armed troops into American cities without the “consent of the governed”.  Rumors of this Administration actually invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807, and using the regular US military in the streets of American cities, abound.  The President chooses “crime” as his excuse for action.  But “crime” is down in all of those cities, and, in fact, is “up” in Republican “controlled” areas.  And what crime are the frog dancers committing?

Boiling

And there’s a whole scenario of Federal suppression of the First Amendment rights that seems to be on the table.  It’s a “boiling frog” analogy:  the more Americans get accustomed to seeing troops in the streets, cities governed by martial law, and direct Federal intervention, the more likely it is that those same troops will “protect” the elections in 2026.  They’ll make sure that the vote is “protected” from opposition. Especially those costumed protestors mocking ICE in Portland.  By the time the general citizenry realizes what’s happened, it might be too late. And then, democracy itself will be cooked.

October 18^th is another opportunity for millions of Americans to “petition the Government for redress of grievances”.  As Lincoln said, “It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this”.  And if that threatens the MAGA-Republicans:  maybe they should look closer at what they are doing to America.   

“Something’s happening here…”

Dam Bills

It seemed like a “no-brainer” to Republicans in Congress.  The “battle” over health-care was already won.  Cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act were “in stone” in the “Big Beautiful Bill”.  The huge savings, over $1.4 Trillion, would go to the Republican cornerstone policy, reducing taxes.  Those reductions would be negligible for lower income families, but for those in the billionaire and multi-millionaire class, it’s big bucks.  

But Congress has a two-part system of implementing laws.  When I was teaching the process back in the “old days” of Senior Government Class, I explained it this way.  To build a dam, it requires a bill to pass the House, Senate and get signed by the President.  Only then would the “dam” bill become a “dam” law.  But to pay for that “dam” law, there has to be a “dam money law” passed as well; an appropriation of money for the dam.  It’s a two-part process.  

Arcane Procedures

Republicans ran up against the budget bill (a money law), including the income tax reductions in the “Big, Beautiful, Bill”.   Instead of having a whole budget battle, they  simply asked for a continuing resolution of existing spending.  That budget bill would just continue things as they already are, including the Big, Beautiful tax reductions, for a few months.  Without passage, there is no “money law” to run the government, and most government spending and activity is shutdown. 

Democrats saw a chance to exercise some real power.   While the House of Representatives is a simple majority to pass a bill (Republicans have a five vote majority), in the Senate there is a process that requires sixty votes to end debate (called cloture), before a vote can be taken on the actual “bill”.   There are fifty-three Republicans in the Senate, so they need seven more votes to end debate, before they can pass the continuing resolution by a simple majority vote.  

Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Leader of the Senate, saw a chance to actually make a difference.  He stopped the budget bill, demanding that the medical cuts of the “Big, Beautiful Bill” get put back in.  How could he go wrong?  Many folks will see the results of those cuts on their annual insurance cost statements, due on their kitchen table at the end of October.  That is especially true for those folks on Medicaid or with Affordable Care Act insurance, who will see huge increases.  

A Winning Issue

It’s a “win-win” for the Democrats.  They’re fighting to keep health costs lower.  If they win, and those costs stay about the same, and Democrats actually got something done for the people, even without control of the House, Senate, or the Presidency.  And if they fail, then Republicans are fully responsible for the dramatic increases in costs.  That will be an albatross around their neck in the 2026 Congressional elections, perhaps the key to Democrats regaining a majority in the House and maybe even the Senate.

Republicans tried to counter by mis-directing the argument to one they are much more comfortable with, undocumented migrants.  Republicans are confident that attacking the undocumented is a winning strategy.  They’ve committed billions of dollars to funding the ICE round-ups, and are trying to place Democrats in the position of defending folks that aren’t legally in the US and can’t vote in elections.  

The problem for Republicans, is that very little government money actually goes to support undocumented migrant health.  In fact, there are clear laws against doing so.  So, after the first flush of “illegals getting government health insurance” passed by, most Americans understood that it was a dodge, a side issue.  They sat around their kitchen tables and calculated how much more of their limited income would go to insurance costs, or worse, direct medical costs.  And they don’t like it.

Boiling Frogs

So here we are.  Republicans are doing the “boiling frog” routine.  They are sitting in a pot of rising insurance costs, and the heat is going up.  They can either find a way to jump out before the pot boils, or they can get stewed in the November 2026 elections.  And Democrats can keep saying, “Well, you have all the majorities.  You are in charge.  You can fix all of this”.  No one really is listening to the arcane mechanics of Senate cloture motions.  

Politically Democrats can’t lose.  But the reality of huge insurance increases for the American people will absolutely turn up the heat on the Party in control.  And the deadline for many will be when the bill shows up, sometimes around November 1^st.  Want a guess how long the government will be shut down?  The closer to the insurance bills, the more pressure to “make a deal”. 

Republicans can either jump out of the pot and make a deal, or they can let the bills hit the kitchen table.  When insurance costs go up dramatically, most Americans aren’t going to be thinking about the undocumented. 

They’ll put blame where blame is due – the Party in charge.

Credit

Credit where credit is due.  If the “Twenty Point” Plan of the Trump Administration comes to fruition and the current War in Gaza ends, then President Trump deserves credit.  Maybe he even deserves his ultimate desire, the Nobel Peace Prize.  But for those, like the “Morning Joe voices” of MSNBC who echo Trump by saying this is the “biggest negotiation ever”, I say this:  “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over”.

Let’s be clear:  Gaza has been destroyed.  Satellite surveys estimate that 80% of the habitable buildings are leveled or damaged.  More than 50,000 civilians (not Hamas soldiers) are dead. Starvation is rampant, and with winter coming on, Gaza will be a humanitarian disaster, even if “the deal” is consummated this week.  

The last “protected” part of Gaza are the remaining Hamas forces.  While the surface of Gaza looks like an old black and white photo of Berlin at the end of World War II, underneath is a tunnel system longer than the New York and London subways combined.  Current estimates are that only 40% of those have been destroyed. Where the tunnels remain, so does Hamas.

The founding principle of Israel was summed up in the term, “Never Forget”.  What was meant to refer to the Holocaust, is now extended to the October 7^th Hamas attack two years ago.  Added to that should be the phrase “Never Forgive”.  The Netanyahu government demands an unlimited amount of Palestinian blood in retribution.  And the politics of Israel are stark:  to remain in power, Netanyahu MUST “win the war”.  Anything less will result in his removal from the Prime Minister’s office, and apportionment of blame for the failures that allowed the October 7^th attack to happen in the first place.

Butcher’s Bill

Winning for Israel originally was the total destruction of Hamas.  But that included, as a “sidebar”, the return of the hostages.  Now, two years after they were taken that “butcher’s bill” remains.  257 were taken hostage originally.  148 have been released or rescued, alive.  75 were killed in captivity (58 of those bodies were repatriated).  Three more were killed by “friendly fire” as they tried to escape in Gaza.  That leaves 48 still held: 25 presumed dead, and 23 thought to be still alive after more than two years of captivity.

So what are the levers of power?  Who is the Trump Administration able to “push” to reach some kind of agreement between these “blood enemies”?  Here’s what I see as  leverage that might end the bloodshed, at least for a while.  

The most popular politician in Israel isn’t Benjamin Netanyahu, or even his political opposition leader, Yair Lapid.  The leader with the most leverage in Israel is Donald Trump, the President of the United States.  Israelis see Trump as the only person in the world that can bring an end to the Gaza War in a “pro-Israel” manner.   And that makes the internal Israeli politics similar to the politics of the Republican Party in the United States.  The critical issue going into the next Israeli election may be Trump’s support, just like here in the Ohio’s statewide primaries in 2026.  

Who Does He Stand For?

If Trump stands with Netanyahu, then the current Prime Minister might survive the inevitable blowback from the October 7^th attack.  “Bebe” has pushed off elections “due to war” for two years.  Now he’s up against a deadline in October of 2026.  And while Netanyahu’s coalition contains hard-right parties that want nothing to do with a “peace plan”, Trump’s influence may be strong enough to overcome their pressure as well.  

Netanyahu needs Trump to stay in office, and Trump knows it.  As we see in American internal politics, that symbiotic relationship makes politicians do things we’d never thought possible.  Strong Ukrainian supporters grow silent.  Powerful state’s right advocates now support Federal government intervention in Democratic cities.  Those who claimed that the Justice Department persecuted Republicans, are gleeful as that same Department prosecutes Democrats.  All of that is under the leverage of Trump, who can end a primary campaign with a single “tweet”.  

So will Netanyahu stand up to his right-wing supporters to say, “80% destruction, 50,000 Palestinian lives is enough”?  He can only do it with Trump behind him.

Hamas

And what leverages Hamas?  Simple survival is the quick answer.  They face absolute destruction, and the Iranian help they’ve depended on for decades is now been (temporarily) disrupted by the Israeli and US bombing campaigns.   The other Islamic Nations surrounding Israel; Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan; want the war to end.  They want nothing to do with the Palestinians themselves, a “headache” they tried to avoid for nearly a century.  But war is disruptive, and threatens to drag them into direct conflict with Israel.  It already has in Lebanon and Syria.  So they are supportive of peace, but have little leverage on Hamas.

Qatar has leverage.  They have they served as the “safe space” for the Hamas political wing to emerge in public.  And, with tacit Israeli acceptance, Qatar put almost $2 Billion into Gaza, including some direct support for Hamas itself.  Israel signaled its current displeasure with Qatar by launching an attack on Hamas ceasefire negotiators there last month.   President Trump responded by guaranteeing Qatar’s safety (an almost “Article Five” statement, an attack on Qatar is an attack on the US).  He directly repudiated Israeli actions.  It was that statement that began the serious “leverage campaign” on Netanyahu, and led to this final agreement.

In the background are the other Islamic Middle Eastern states, particularly Saudi Arabia.  And Trump has used his direct representative to Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), the leader of Saudi, to pressure the deal on a region-wide basis.  Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner is unique.  He has a personal friendship with MBS, and he’s also the godson of Netanyahu.  It everything ends up being personal, then Trump has the “person” to push the parties to agree.

End of the Beginning

There is an agreement – tentatively.  There are hostages to be released, both on Hama’s part (the survivors and the dead) and by Israel (1200 prisoners).  Israel must move its military into defensive positions, and stop combat operations in Gaza.  Hamas must give up weapons.  And there’s a great deal of “territory” left undecided – most importantly those tunnels.

It’s a start.  Hopefully humanitarian aid can immediately flow into Gaza, to stave off starvation, and begin to bring care and shelter to the million or so Palestinians still there.  

The ultimate concern though, is what is left for the next generations.  For Israelis, there is the indelible memory of October 7^th, similar to Americans’ memory of 9/11.  And for Palestinians, there is the terrible losses of civilians to Israeli actions. That will fester.  And it’s likely to produce a whole new generation of terrorists willing to do anything to extract revenge.  

Peace in Gaza today is important.  But the “peace in our time” in the Middle East that the President offers, has a long, long way to go.

Cold War

At the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States, were poised to launch nuclear Armageddon.  The theory that “kept the peace” was a concept called “Mutual Assured Destruction”. The idea was that, no matter how devastating the nuclear attack one nation might launch on the other, the opponent’s response would be equally as disastrous.  Total destruction of both sides was “assured”.  No wonder the acronym was “MAD”.  

The organization of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, founded by Einstein, Oppenheimer and many others fresh from the Manhattan Project, really knew best what the outcome of “MAD” would be.  To illustrate the point, they established the “Doomsday Clock” in 1947, representing how close the world was to manmade total devastation; “midnight”.  The first “clock” was seven minutes to midnight.  The farthest away from midnight was at the end of the Cold War in 1991, seventeen minutes to midnight.  The closest it’s been to “midnight”, is right now, at 89 seconds.

Why so dangerous?  The world today is incredibly unstable.  Russia threatens nuclear response if the West intervenes “too much” in Ukraine.  North Korea continues to build intercontinental ballistic missiles to carry their existing nuclear warheads.  India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, are on the edge of conflict.  China continues both political and military expansionism, including the ongoing threat to Taiwan.  And the Middle East remains unstable, with Israel a known nuclear power, and Iran and perhaps others working to have their own “bomb”.  

The Mutually Assured Destruction of the Cold War no longer holds nations in check.  And the United States is totally distracted by its own internal conflict. 

Democracy’s Clock

We are on a different kind of clock. This one ticks away the seconds of Democracy.   What does “midnight” represent on this timepiece?  The end of the US Constitutional “experiment”, started in 1788.  The removal of the very rights that caused the American Revolution in 1776.  And when will the “bell toll” for American Democracy?  On November 3^rd, 2026 and on January 4^th, 2027, if the United States fails to have a free and fair election.

There is a “revolution” going on right now, one occurring under the “color” of law.  The President is claiming extraordinary powers “under” the Constitution, and no other branch of government is standing up to his extra-legal actions.  The Supreme Court already granted full immunity to the President himself.  They look to Congressional powers to “check and balance” the Executive.  But Congress continues to accede to every Presidential demand, and allows him full rein in his actions.

The Revolution

Does this look familiar?

• He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers (*extra-legal executive orders).
• He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance (*ICE).
• He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures (*National Guard).
• He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power (*National Guard).
• For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: (*ICE and National Guard).
• For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world: (*Tariffs).
• For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent: (*Tariffs, Health Insurance increases).
• For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury: (*ICE detention).
• For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences (*ICE removal).

            *Examples of Trump Administration actions

These are some of the actions that Thomas Jefferson noted in the Declaration of Independence.  In 1776 these actions also were done “under the color of law”, the sovereign right of the monarch, King George III of Great Britain.  Americans rejected these as violating the “self-evident rights” of all persons.  Here we are again.

Standing for Democracy

The governors of some of the states are standing up against the “quartering of troops”.  California, Oregon and Illinois are fighting in the lower courts to keep the Federalized National Guard from coming into their states without their consent.  And the lower Courts are standing with the states, against the President.  But that’s no guarantee; the right-wing cabal on the Supreme Court might still choose to support the “unitary executive” principle, much like the “sovereign right of kings” we fought against in the Revolution.

The President faced huge scrutiny for asking the Secretary of State of Georgia to find 11,780 votes for him to turn the 2020 election.  But today, when the President demands of Republican state Governors that they create districts slanted to elect more Republican Congressmen, it’s all “business as usual”.  

And when those same Republican states move to restrict voting, making it more difficult to maintain the right to vote, it goes almost unnoticed.  

Due process and free speech rights were first denied to foreign students legally in the United States.  Then those rights were denied to undocumented migrants whose sole crime was to be “without papers”.  Now, the Attorney General of the United States declared that ICE should “crackdown”, not only on the undocumented, but on legitimate protests against ICE actions.  

And the President is using the regulatory powers granted to his office by the Congress, to control the free speech of broadcasters and political opponents.  Is that “legal”?  It might be.  But it is certainly Un-American, a clear violation of the intent of the First Amendment.  

Midnight

The clock is ticking.  The hands are growing closer to midnight.  The America we thought was inevitable, the  result of Manifest Destiny, Reagan’s “Shining city on the hill”, is not just at risk.  It is slipping away, perhaps already gone.  The last, best chance of saving America is a free and fair election in 2026, to replace the existing Congressional majority with one that will stand up for Congressional power, and the American people.  

If we fail to achieve that goal, the clock will be at midnight.  The destruction of our democracy will be assured.  We need action to hold onto the vestiges of the Constitution, to maintain the last freedoms with have.  Our last chance is to speak up with our words and our ballots. The American experiment is up for grabs.

Time is short.