Category: Uncategorized

Kamala’s Coming

Look, I know this isn’t the time or place to talk about this.  There’s a Presidential election in twenty-six days.  I should be yelling from the rooftop, hanging lanterns from the church tower (one if by land, two if by sea), riding one of the dogs through the streets:  “Kamala for President, Kamala for President”.  But yelling from the rooftop would probably disrupt the neighborhood and stir up the “MAGA” crowd, and there isn’t a church in town that would let me in the belltower.  Besides Lou (the biggest of our dogs) couldn’t go the distance with me on his back.  

But you get the point, it’s the Presidency, it’s Harris versus Trump, it’s an election which may determine the future of the American experiment in democracy.   Talking about anything else seems to be inconsequential.

Unless, that is, you happen to live in the United States, and go outside. Or, to put it even more specifically, even if you don’t go out, the outside comes to you.   Because we live in an era of climate change, what we used to call “global warming”.  And it is warming, beyond a reasonable doubt if you want to apply the legal standard.  Every reasoned scientist, around the world, agrees.  It’s only the outliers, the ones who are looking for a platform and funding they can’t get in the mainstream, that think differently.  Those outliers are like the scientists who claimed using tobacco didn’t cause cancer, or nicotine wasn’t addictive: just wrong.

Warming Up

Now I’m not going to throw out a bunch of scientific evidence; except the record July 22^nd, 2024 average daily temperature of the earth of 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit (that includes the southern hemisphere at the height of winter, Antarctica, and above the Arctic Circle). Or the Gulf of Mexico that set a record high of 88 degrees at a depth of 165 feet in the summer of 2023.  But  dates and numbers aren’t really persuasive.  

How about these numbers:  there are 30 uncontrolled wildfires in the United States today, with 1.25 million acres burning (National Interagency Fire Agency).  Two huge hurricanes struck the United States in the last two weeks.  One damaged the coast, then deluged the Southern Appalachians with a “thousand year rain”, 18 inches that destroyed towns and infrastructure.  The other brought 126 tornados to eastern Florida, then slammed into Western Florida with Category 3 winds and, again, a “thousand year rain”, that included five inches in one hour.

It’s not that we haven’t had events like this before; we have.  But we haven’t had the frequency of fires, tornados, droughts, and hurricanes, and we haven’t had the intensity.  And they weren’t in such tremendous succession.  The poor folks in Florida weren’t even done cleaning up from Helene when Milton literally “popped up”, grew to Category 5, then weakened to Category Three before it actually hit land.

And, by the way, Congressman Marjorie Taylor Greene, if we really could direct storms, don’t you think we’d dump the 18” of rain on the 1.25 million acres on fire – duh???

Yes, We Can

Our world is growing more hostile, because we haven’t done enough to control the weather.  Congressman Greene is right about one thing, we do have an opportunity to control our future weather.  But she won’t agree with the answer:  reduce the amount of carbon emissions that we are putting in the atmosphere.  Carbon emissions trap heat, causing the global temperatures to rise.  Those rising temperatures are “stored” in the air, but also in the waters of our oceans.  And that warming water creates the energy that drives our more extreme weather.  

It’s science, but it isn’t “rocket science”.  It’s actually common sense.  And the common sense solution is to stop adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, to stop increasing the world temperature.  Hold the temperature, and hold the energy that’s increasing the storms.  See Marjorie:  we really can control the weather.

Millions of Tons

How do we do that?  Again, it doesn’t take a “rocket scientist” to figure this out. (By the way, I know some rocket scientists, and they really are incredibly smart people).   Carbon emissions is a “code word” for the exhaust gases from burning carbon based fuels.  Those are the fuels we dig and drill from the ground; coal, petroleum, natural gas.  So everything we do to reduce using those fuels reduces the amount that go into the air.  In 2022, we (the United States) put 5,489 million metric tons of carbon in the atmosphere (EPA).  That’s millions of tons, one little particle at a time.

Now we can be like little kids and whine, “Well China and India put more out than we do, so go stop them” (world carbon emitters-EPA). But the answer is, the atmosphere doesn’t care what nationality the carbon emissions came from.  We made a good start a decade ago with the Paris Accords, setting benchmarks for reducing world emissions.  But we, the United States, blew that up.  And we all know who was responsible for that:  saddle up the dog.

There are lots of ways to reduce carbon, from finding alternative sources of energy (wind, solar, even nuclear – yikes!).  And there are changes we can personally make.  We can drive hybrid and electric cars, and we can drive cars that get better mileage (says the guy with a Jeep and a truck).  We can elect officials who recognize our choice: we can live in a world with less fossil fuels, or we can live in a world with more storms, tornados, fires, and droughts.  

Just another reason to think about who to vote for in twenty-six days. 

Congruent – having the same shape and size, or being similar in character or type

Back to Normal

We hear it from both sides of our polarized world:  we want things “back to normal”.  There was a time, maybe two decades ago, when politics were important, but not all-consuming. There was a time when a Republican and a Democrat could stand shoulder to shoulder for local issues, then amicably disagree on National ones.  And there was a time where we “trusted” our institutions, from schools to banks, to the National Institute of Health, to something as common place as the Weather Bureau (now NOAA).  

We used to trust college professors to teach their students.  Sure, if there was a Marxist professor, it meant students would get a Marxist view of the course subject.  But that was acceptable, it was college, and, theoretically, student minds were ready to be “exposed” to all kinds of thought.  Marxist theory wasn’t some disease; exposure didn’t guarantee infection.  In fact, exposure might prove to be inoculation.  

But today, an avowed Marxist would be unlikely to keep their tenured position.  Not sure about that? Substitute the word Palestinian for Marxist.

Trusted Institutions

For most Americans, the FBI was one of the most trusted institutions in the government.  Some of us were around in the 1960’s, the “bad old days” of the J Edgar Hoover era. We knew that the FBI could be a weapon for political suppression.(Remember the George Carlin joke about answering the “always” FBI-tapped phone; “F**K Hoover, may I help you?”)  But post Hoover and Watergate, the FBI was the neutral arbiter and law enforcer, and after 9-11 and the Robert Mueller era, the great protector.

We used to trust the partisan election boards to count the votes.  Instead of being “bipartisan”, they were carefully divided between the two parties. A Republican and a Democrat looked over each shoulder.  We trusted that they would be fair, because they were so transparent.  And while there was the occasional corruption, in the fifty-one different state election systems, controlling thousands of local divisions;  the vast majority were fair.  We accepted their results. 

Confidence in institutions, like the United States Constitution, are fundamental for the success of our Representative Democracy. (Or our Federal Republic; the two terms are congruent).   If we don’t trust our institutions, if we believe that everything from the FBI to NOAA are now politicized then our government has failed. (Doesn’t that sound like Project 2025?)  And if our government has failed, then what is the alternative?

Alternatives

Back in college I had a Spanish professor who was a former minister in the Castro government, and then a refugee from Cuba.  He taught us Spanish, but he also taught us the failings of Castro, and the successes of the Batista dictatorship before “the Revolution”.  The Professor offered a different alternative to us American students, an alternative to Representative Democracy.  He proffered Batista’s fascism as a legitimate form of government; something that us children of the Greatest Generation who fought World War II against Nazism would never have considered.

President Xi of China offers a similar choice.  In a nation of 1.4 billion, he claims that the efficiency of authoritarian rule is “necessary”, as is the totalitarian control of the economy.  His argument is that “democracy” is too messy, too inefficient; to work in a large, diverse, modern nation.  

So there are alternatives to our form of government (alternatives that I am NOT advocating).  But to get Americans to seriously consider those alternatives, it is necessary to destroy confidence in our present institutions.   And in the “age” of social media, when every American has a direct link to the world in their pocket, it’s not that hard to do.

Shared Interest

Who is interested in destroying our confidence?  What are the “congruent interests” for the end of the American democracy?

Certainly our “competitors” in the world would get a “leg up” if the United States was no longer a part of the “free world”.  Russia, China, Iran, North Korea; all would benefit from a US that was no longer the “shining city on the hill” of Ronald Reagan days. We know that those nations are constantly on “our” social media, adding to the chaos, and undermining American Institutions.

 And there are those forces in the world that aren’t necessarily “competing”, but find our democratic ways abhorrent.  The terrorists; from Hezbollah and Hamas to Isis and the Haqqani Network, have a religious fervor to disrupt America (here’s the State Department list).

But those aren’t the most insidious threats to America.  

From Within

The CBS news show “Sixty Minutes” this week, interviewed Shelby Busch, the Vice Chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party (Phoenix).  She made it clear there was no level of “factual evidence” that would convince her that the elections aren’t “fixed”.  Even clear evidence presented by a fellow Republican, election administrator Steve Richter, isn’t enough to convince her.  In fact, she threatened to “lynch” him for suggesting the elections were fair.

From election-deniers to anti-vaxxers, Americans are overwhelmed with attacks on our institutions.  Some assertions are ridiculous, like “evidence” of government control of hurricanes being aimed at Republican voters (the flight charts of the Hurricane Hunters).  Some are insidious; “FEMA spent all the disaster money on migrants, so there’s none available for relief in North Carolina”.  Each one creates another doubt in the integrity of our institutions.  

Who in the United States benefits from loss of “faith” in our institutions?   Who has “congruent” interests with our world rivals?  And who talked to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin seven times, while surrounded by purloined National Security documents?

You know who.

Embedded

I spent much of 1977 “embedded” in American politics.  After working for the Carter/Mondale campaign in 1976, I went to Washington, DC in January to attend the inauguration, then to study at American University.  As part of my program, I also worked in Congressman Tom Luken’s (D-Cincinnati) office, first as a legislative intern, then later as a staff scheduler.   After a spring semester immersed in Government, I came home to Cincinnati for the summer, now working at Luken’s local office.  My job:  to organize the Congressman’s schedule, by the half-hour, from 7am to 9pm for every moment he was in town, and then, to accompany him to many of those events.

I learned a lot about Government, and about politics in that year.  I also learned a lot about working for a “difficult” boss.  Luken’s reputation as “tough” was well earned.  I can say this:  over that summer, other than one senior staffer, I was fired “the least”.  But that first time was a shock.  A United States Congressman was screaming and swearing on the phone, saying I was done.  Then, the next day, that same Congressman screamed and swore at me again, because I wasn’t at work.  The Cincinnati Democratic “rite of passage” of working for Luken taught me to have a thicker skin, and a more elaborate vocabulary.

Star Wars

Any distraction that summer of ‘77 was welcome.  So one night, I loaded the neighbor kids into my 1967 Volkswagen Squareback, and headed to the movies.   There was a new space saga on that everyone was talking about, called “Star Wars”.   If you now watch what is called “The New Hope”, it doesn’t have quite the luster it had back in “the day”.  Special effects have come a long way in forty-seven years, much of the progress made by Star Wars creator George Lucas and his company, Industrial Light and Magic.  But in 1977 it was almost overwhelming on the big screen.  We had no idea that it would become embedded on our culture for a half-century, but we did fall in love with the characters from the very first.

And we learned the mystic traditions and powers of the Jedi, and the Force.  Our first example was when Jedi Knight Obi Wan Kenobi was able to direct Imperial Stormtroopers away from the hero, Luke Skywalker, and his “droids”.

• Obi Wan: (with a small wave of his hand) – You don’t need to see his identification
• Stormtrooper: We don’t need to see his identification
• Obi Wan: These aren’t the droids you’re looking for
• Stormtrooper:  These aren’t the droids were looking for
• Obi Wan:  He can go about his business
• Stormtrooper:  You can go about your business
• Obi Wan: Move along
• Stormtrooper:  Move along, move along.

It was our first exposure to “Jedi Mind Tricks”.  And from that moment on the screen, the term “Jedi Mind Tricks” entered our vocabulary.  It means, getting folks to ignore something that’s in plain sight.

One final memory from that first exposure to Star Wars.  Driving home in my four-speed Volkswagen with the kids,  there might have been some “X-Wing Starfighter” maneuvers.  No laws were broken, but we weren’t going to get blown up by any “Tie-Fighters” on Springfield Pike either!

Covid

In fact, “mind tricks” are so common today, we might not even realize they’re happening.  Two entire historic events, are “disappeared” from our collective memory;  “these aren’t the droids you’re looking for”.  And that creates a direct impact on our political decisions today.

The first event is the Covid pandemic.  It was only three and a half years ago, but we have collectively “disappeared” it from our memories.  Part of the reason; we didn’t get to publicly mourn the losses.  Like our memory, the dead in Covid literally disappeared – we couldn’t say goodbye, go to a funeral, or gather friends and families for comfort.  Another reason is that we were isolated, individually or in small family groups; cut off from jobs or friends.  Much of our “connection” was through screens (I virtually taught 120 kids a day).  But we discovered that virtual wasn’t the same as real; it was too easy to just “move along, move along”.

Four Years Ago

When campaigns ask are we better now than we were four years ago, the answer is, “of course we are”.  Four years ago, Donald Trump had Covid, and was whisked to Walter Reed Hospital for experimental treatments. Four years ago gas prices were low, because people still couldn’t go places or do things. But, four years ago the unemployment rate was almost 7%; 11 million Americans were unable to find work. 

Some candidates for office are depending on this “Jedi Mind Trick”.  They want us to remember the before-Covid times, without the “payback” of the year and a half we all lost in our lives (and more) because of Covid.  Why is that?  So that we don’t give any credit to those who came into office and brought the Nation to recovery from the Covid recession.  The United States had the best recovery from Covid in the world.  Yes, prices went up.  But Americans have jobs, they have goods and services, they regained their lives and their friendships.  And we did it without the economic depression that most economists saw as inevitable.  

January 6^th

And now, politicians like Republican Vice Presidential Candidate JD Vance are asking us to re-write another memory of that era; the January 6^th, 2021, insurrection.  The picture he paints is of a “peaceful protest” by justified Americans, demanding that a stolen election be returned.  He wants us to see his candidate, Donald Trump, as blameless for the mob that descended on the Capitol and threatened to kill Vice President Pence and Speaker Pelosi.  He wants us to “move along, move along” to the future, as his Party lays the same groundwork for insurrection that they laid at the end of 2020.  

They want us to not believe “our lying eyes”.  We are to see hooligans as patriots, and those that schemed to overthrow our Constitution as heroes.  If they can convince us of that, then we can easily elect the schemers and ignore the real patriots who saved our Republic.  And the final “mind trick”.  Democrats don’t like Trump.  Two people have tried to kill Trump because they don’t like him.  Therefore, the assassins must be Democrats.  Trump is a martyr, a victim, to be glorified.  Democrats are the “hooligans”, willing to go to any length to stop Trump.  

After watching all of the Star Wars saga, we learned that the Force can be used by both evil and good, but that the “dark side” ultimately doesn’t win out.  It’s always a choice, between dark and light; with dark side offering immediate rewards, and the light usually longer term gains.  And like the Saga, we are asked to make a choice now.  As we make that decision, don’t fall for “Jedi Mind Tricks”.  We cannot ignore the past with a “small wave of his hand”.  We must see it all; then we can decide.

Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! …Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!  – Patrick Henry to the Virginia House of Burgesses, March 23, 1775

Actually Begun

It’s October 6^th, thirty days before election day.  But, of course, in our modern era, “the war is actually begun!!”.  Seven states are already voting.  Here in Ohio, voter registration ends tomorrow, and early voting starts Tuesday (voting information).   It’s estimated that at least 40% of votes will be cast before November 5^th.  (And it’s not that old Democratic joke: “Vote early and vote often.”)  This year, both campaigns are encouraging early voting.  It’s not just to make sure that “their” voters actually cast a ballot.  It’s a “money” thing.  When a vote is cast, that  fact is immediately registered on the voter list (that they voted, not how they voted).  Campaigns can stop campaigning to those voters, using the resources directly to those who have not voted.

Want to help your candidate?  Vote early, by mail or in-person, and get it over with.  It’s kind of like Christmas shopping.  Sure, you can be the person on Christmas Eve, desperately waiting in line for the last minute bargains.  But there’s always that issue, the “perfect gift” is out-of-stock.  Election day voting is “fun”.  There’s lines and excitement; the feeling of being part of the great American experiment in real-time.  But there’s always the issues; car, weather, job; all things that might get in the way of casting your ballot.  So make the campaigns happy, vote early (not often). 

Minute-by-Minute

Back in August, at the Democratic Convention, there was a new spirit in the Democratic Party.  Harris was uplifting:  instead of “just” saving Democracy, she was offering a new vision beyond “We are not going back”.  And that’s still true.  But, now a month later, there is also a growing dread.  After everything thrown at the Trump campaign, after all the minute-by-minute lying Trump and Vance have done; it’s still an extremely narrow election. 

Part of that is also “theatre”.  The two major polling averages, Real Clear Politics and 538; use a greater number of “Red” polls, done with a bias towards the Republican side.  Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg lists twenty-seven polls that are “red-leaning”, including:

Daily Mail, Cygnal, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Napolitan Institute, Public Opinion Strategies, Rasmussen, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, and (of course) the Wall Street Journal.  

More “red” polls, more “redder” numbers in the average.  No matter how well the Harris/Walz ticket does, the average still slants “red”.  Today, Real Clear Politics averages has Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.  But in the swing states, where the Electoral College will be determined, it’s tied 48% to 48%.  And that’s the “slanted” version.

Stressors

So why all the mumbling and jumbling of numbers?  Because we have reached that point in the election, where the beginning is long ago, and the end too far away.   For those who are attuned, the adrenalin tap has been on full (like Trump’s giant water valve) for two months.  All of the chemical stress takes a toll, and it’s easy to start to despair.  And those damn numbers don’t help.  So add a grain of salt (or a bag) to the flood of polling data:  remember they are “leaned” in a direction. (For those of you who are MSNBC fans, and struggle with Steve Kornacki who seems to always have “bad” news – remember he’s using these same numbers.  As my programmer friends used to say, “Garbage in, Garbage out”).

Want to unstress?  Do something.  Put up a sign, knock on some doors; heaven forbid, have a conversation with your neighbor (probably not the one with the F**K Biden flag still flying).  Do what you can to support your candidate.  Write a letter, or an essay (or guest write one here on Our America).  Action always reliefs stress.  And the most important thing you can do, is vote.  

To paraphrase Patrick Henry: 

“I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me the ballot, or give me death!”

The 1983 movie “War Games” (Matthew Broderick, Ally Sheedy, Dabney Coleman) was about a high school student who hacked into the National missile defense computer. He started a “War Game” that almost resulted in a real nuclear war.  The only way to stop the “game” was to convince the computer of the absolute futility of nuclear attacks.  In the end, the computer grasped the idea, and said:  “Strange game.  The only winning move is not to play.” – War Games, 1983

Jack Smith’s Filing

Yesterday, the redacted transcript of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s evidence against Donald Trump was released.  It’s 152 pages packed with Grand Jury testimony about Trump’s conduct around the 2020 election, particularly in the time between the election in early November, and the Insurrection on January 6^th, 2021.    While I have the entire transcript, I’m still working my way through that mountain of evidence.  But, even with a cursory reading, the message is clear.  President Trump knew he lost the 2020 election.  He knew that there wasn’t voter fraud, that the election wasn’t “stolen” from him.  

But he continued to maintain that it was “stolen”. He marshalled his forces both inside and outside the White House to block the lawful transition of power:  first in the Courts, then in the states, then at the Congressional level.  He sent a mob to the Congress with the express intent to disrupt the official certification of the electoral votes. And he tried to force his Vice President, Mike Pence, into leading the effort.  

It’s more than unusual for all of the evidence to be put on public display prior to trial.  But this revelation is a product of Trump’s own legal actions.  In appealing Counsel Smith’s charges, Trump won a huge victory in the Supreme Court.  The Nation’s highest judicial body ruled that actions within the President’s “official duties” are immune from prosecution.  He can only be held legally accountable for actions in a “private” capacity.  And since the trial court, the Federal District Court in Washington, DC, is required to determine the differences between official and private, Smith presented all the information he deemed as “private” for the Court’s perusal. 

October Surprise

To be clear, there’s nothing shockingly new in the Smith document.  It simply provides detailed explanations to fill in much of what we learned through the January 6^th hearings, and from the volumes of reporting and “inside” books about the time.  The biggest revelation was from Mike Pence’s Grand Jury testimony.  He refused to cooperate in the Congressional hearings, so it’s the first time we know what he said and thought.  Not surprising; Pence painted a scene of growing personal pressure from Trump to interfere with the electoral certification. This was even after Pence made it clear he didn’t have the Constitutional power to do so.

The Smith transcript is “just another nail in the coffin” for the Trump campaign.  Of all the issues confronted in the 2024 Presidential election, the most significant one is what Democrats call Trump’s “existential threat” to our Constitutional Democracy.  The transcript is even more evidence that Donald Trump was willing to use the powers of the Presidency to remain in office, regardless of the outcome of the electoral and popular votes.  But this is not an “October Surprise”, along the lines of the Access Hollywood tape or the Weiner Laptop investigations of 2016.   There are few calls for Trump to drop out of the race. He and his running mate JD Vance continue to campaign.

Status-Quo

It seems there is no event, (barring assassination) that will alter the status-quo of the 2024 election.  All of the information is out, all of the debates are over.  And while the world roils from Ukraine to the Middle East, neither candidate is able to take advantage of the turmoil. Most Democrats are set; most MAGA-Republicans are too.   

If the past is prologue, then 2024 will be decided by a small sliver of voters in a few pivotal states.  The campaigns are both looking to influence that sliver, before they turn to the final, get out the vote efforts.  The apparent strategies in the  Vice Presidential debates, where the two combative candidates appeared to be almost collegial, were aimed at those small sub-groups.  

Among those groups are the identified Republicans who are not willing to vote for Trump.  They are “Never-Trumpers”.  And the question the campaigns ask is: are they going to vote for Harris? Or, as the 1983 movie “War Games” made famous, decide “…that the only winning move is not to play”?  Will they leave the Presidential election box empty? Or, as Utah Senator and former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney did, vote for someone else.  Romney wrote-in his wife Ann Romney in 2016.

Narrow Margin

Hillary Clinton won the 2016 popular vote by over three million votes, but still lost the Presidency in the Electoral College.  Joe Biden won by over seven million, and just eked out a narrow Electoral victory.  From the Harris side it’s not about not voting for Trump, it’s about voting for Harris/Walz.  Any other choice works to Trump’s advantage.  

Unlike “War Games”, the only winning move in this election is to play.  Regardless of tax policy, abortion laws, immigration controls or inflation; the existential threat of Trump to the American Constitutional system is clear.  Jack Smith’s indictment makes it even more apparent to what lengths Trump was willing to go to remain in power, regardless of the law, regardless of tradition, regardless of the Constitution.  That MUST be enough.  The only winning move in this situation is to vote for Harris.  Any other choice puts our Democracy (or for my indoctrinated friends, our Constitutional Republic) in jeopardy. 

We all must “play”. 

Smooth

Last night’s debate was a stark contrast.  Regardless of your side of our political chasm, there are some things that are factually true.  Senator JD Vance was smooth, silky smooth.  His answers were articulate, well thought out, and true or not, sold with conviction.  After watching him last night, I understand why billionaires Peter Thiel and Donald Trump and Trump’s real heirs, Don Junior and Eric, picked Vance as the “heir apparent” to MAGA world.  

Vance was willing to go to any length to sell his message.  He spent minutes convincing Americans to, “not believe your lying eyes”.  He tried to persuade us that as President, Donald Trump saved the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare.  It was really only a few years ago, when we sat up late into the night, watching the US Senate determine the fate of the medical insurance plan.  Many of us were still awake when Arizona’s John McCain walked into the Senate chamber up to the voting clerk, raised his damaged arm, and voted “thumbs down” to the effort to cancel the plan. 

Big Lies 

And we remember how furious Trump was, once again one-upped by the “Maverick”.  In fact, at the behest of Trump, the Republicans in Congress tried to end the Affordable Care Act thirty-nine times.  But, in the silky words of Senator Vance, Trump was really trying to save it.

But the big “lie” last night, was about the “Big Lie”.  Vance would have us believe that Trump was sending a mob to the Capitol on January 6^th, to “peacefully protest” (as opposed to “fight like Hell”) to stop the Presidential certification.  We watched that too; as it seemed the very existence of our Constitutional Democracy was in the balance.  But Vance blew it off; after all, Biden was inaugurated on January 20^th.  And Vance would not, could not, admit that Biden actually won.  As Governor Walz said, “That was a damning non-answer”. 

There were lots of other lies by Vance, so many, that there was no way to “fact-check” him.  The basic theory of debate, with two candidates present their positions, depends on facts and truth.  But Vance presented a perverted history that doesn’t stand up to the “smell test”.

Stage Fright

And what about Governor Walz?  No question, he was damn nervous, especially at the beginning.  Democrats watching the first ten minutes had  “Biden flashbacks”.  But the Governor settled down, and, other than an awkward question about what he did thirty-five years ago,  he handled questions well.  He got “wonky” on issues, something many undecided voters wanted; about agriculture, abortion, housing, and guns.  And he was able to call out Vance for de-humanizing migrants, using them as the scapegoat for every ill in America.  

Walz was not a “tough debater”.  He wasn’t after the “gotcha” moment with Vance.  And he wasn’t looking for the tag-line:  “You’re no Jack Kennedy”, or “I’m speaking”.  Instead, he was trying to answer the questions and explain his views to the American people.  

And Vance tried to “out-Walz”, Walz.  They had several answers where they turned to each other and said “we agree”.  And to my friends on the left, who wanted Vance’s blood and guts on the floor, that’s disappointing.  Walz let Vance seem like a “normal” politician, a Joe Biden versus Paul Ryan style Vice Presidential debate.  The Vance on the stage last night isn’t the same Vance that’s been on the campaign trail, and Walz let him “get away” with it.

No Harm

The first goal for both was to “do no harm”.  But Democratic core members are disappointed, kind of a “…how dare Walz be nice, and find common ground, with Vance!!!”.  We’ve all seen Walz on the stump, and we know he can be a firebrand, COACH WALZ at halftime.  So what happened?

The last two elections have been narrowly decided, and this one is going to be as well.  If 2016 was decided by 74,744 votes in the swing states, and 2020 decided by 44,000; how narrow will 2024 be?  There’s time for Harris and Walz (and the Obamas, and Bidens, and Clintons) to energize the core, but there’s not much time to reach those still undecided.  And Walz was reaching for them, presenting a political world of collegiality that, maybe, really doesn’t exist.  Walz wasn’t a firebrand; he was a Governor of a state, touting Minnesota’s achievements and applying them to the Nation.  

The small middle is looking for a “return to Normalcy”, and Walz presented that last night.   And Vance showed us he could sell “iceboxes to Eskimos” (probably not an appropriate phrase anymore).  He lied, cleanly, coolly, with a straight and “honest” face.   The goal of both debaters was clear:  reach those few in the middle who remain straddling the fence.  And frankly, both were able to do so.  

But I don’t think those few will be fooled by the obvious lies of Senator JD Vance, called out by Governor Walz.  And, that may make all the difference, five weeks from now when the votes are counted.

“Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way. She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country,” – Donald Trump, at a rally in Prairie du Chen, Wisconsin.

Fifth Grade Playground

“You’re stupid.  You’re Dad’s stupid too, but at least he was smart once.  He just got old.  You were born stupid”.  I  could’ve heard it on the 5^th grade playground while I was sub-teaching at school.  But, to be honest, I’d expect better from fifth graders.  After all, they are one step away from the emotional crucible of middle school.  The insults should be more creative.  And the whole parent side, “your Dad’s stupid too”, is just dumb, carefully answered by, “You don’t even know my Dad” or the ultimate payback, “My Dad’s dead!!!!”.  So, like any good teacher, I’d break up the insults, both for being mean, and for lacking in creativity.  That’s never going to work next year in the Middle School.

Or at least I would, but it’s not happening on the fifth grade playground in the shadow of the geodesic climbing dome.  And it’s not an argument about who got “knocked out” in “Gaga Ball” (now all the rage, a cross between four square and dodge ball in an enclosed octagon).  In fact, it’s happening on America’s greatest “debate” stage, the campaign for the Presidency of the United States.

Seriously

You’d think the first thing a candidate for President would want to be is serious.   I mean, no one wants the most powerful person, the avowed leader of the free world, the person in charge of the weapons to destroy the entire planet, to be “un-serious”.   That doesn’t mean candidates can’t laugh, enjoy the show, and even dance to the rally music.  But when it comes down to it, to the issues and crises of our times, it’s not a laughing matter.   This is serious stuff, for serious people.  The “you’re stupid” argument should have been left on the playground, actually, the second grade playground.

Oh wait, we “adulted up” the language.  Instead of “stupid”, it’s now “mentally disabled”.  That “adulting” doesn’t really change the issue, but it does manage to insult not only the other party, but everyone who actually suffers from mental disabilities; from brain cancer survivors to stroke victims.  And many of them can vote; so, nice job there. 

All’s Fair

There are legitimate differences between the Presidential candidates.  Issues like immigration, abortion, managing the economy, tariffs and taxation, handling a complex world situation, and the growing diversity of the American population and life; all require serious solutions.   In a “West Wing” world, the candidates would layout their plans, and the voters would decide.

But, my “West Wing” reference is dated, and so is my hope that our politics could rise above personal insult.  Michelle Obama used to say, “When they go low, we go higher” back in the day.  But that day, at least for one side of the election, is long gone.  Both sides learned the other lesson of American politics:  “All’s fair in love and war…and politics”.  So in our current era, our politics trends to the lowest common denominator.   Even the network news is giving up on accuracy:  CBS won’t factcheck tonight’s Vice Presidential debate.  Facts are too “controversial”, I guess.

The Context

So we are left with a campaign where one side uses childish insults, and makes things up out of whole cloth.  I’ve already written about “eating the pets” (Scared Dogs).  But after some consideration, I don’t think “eating the pets” was some leap of Facebook fancy that JD Vance picked up by happenstance.  It’s too “convenient” to be a mistake.  As Vance himself said, he needed to create (his words) a “context” to raise the issue of immigrants.  

But the Trump/Vance ticket is making inroads into the Latino vote.  They couldn’t afford to have Vance’s “context” built around Central or South American migrants; that might offend their new  Latino Republican friends in Florida, Texas, Nevada and Arizona.  So they had to “find” a different migrant group, even if they were LEGAL migrants,INVITED to Springfield, Ohio to help fill jobs in that the hollowed-out post-industrial town.  Springfield was dying; the Haitian migrants help in the recent revitalization.

Strategic Racism

Haitians aren’t Latino, they’re Creole.  Their native language is based on French, not Spanish.  And they are Black, not the mixture of Spanish, Native American and African of many Latinos.  So attacking them was a “safe” bet for the Trump/Vance campaign.  They would only offend those that weren’t likely to support them anyway (though they offended the Haitian vote in Florida, another key state in a potential Trump victory).  

My point:  attacking the Haitians in Springfield was a strategic decision, not just some Trump “word salad” (he’d call it a “weave”).  It even took precedence over the Latino gangs in Aurora, Colorado.  That makes it all the worse:  the Trump/Vance team aren’t fools, they’re racists.   

And if you want to say I’m “name calling” too; damn right.  But at least I’m doing it at the high school level, not like some second grader. 

We lost our senior dog, Buddy on Thursday.  Sure we have five dogs, but that doesn’t make losing one any easier.  Buddy was our “best boy”.  He was part of our family and went through big changes in our lives.  And he was a medical “miracle”, a boy who helped future dogs extend their lives despite the ravages of cancer.

Rescue

Buddy, like the rest of our pack, was a rescue.  I’d like to say “we” (Jenn and I) brought him home, but that would be stretching the truth.  The truth:  I got a text from Jenn at work that said, “Going to the shelter to get a dog”.  While I was a very new husband, I instinctively knew what the right response was:  “OK”.   At that time, Buddy would be the third in our rescue group, along with Sierra, an elderly mix, and Dash, our thoughtful, considerate Yellow Lab.  

At first, I wasn’t sure Buddy and I would get along.  He was about one year old, undersized for a shepherd/border-collie mix, and kind of wild.  After we first met, he jumped on the couch and nipped at me.  From the very beginning, he was definitely Jenn’s dog.  He knew, after a couple of failed fosters and returns to the shelter, that Jenn was his savior.   But, at least for that first week, I wasn’t so sure he was going to be a success with us, either.

It all changed when we opened his crate one night, and invited him to join “the pack” in bed.  Sierra had her own low platform bed, but Dash slept with us.  And when Buddy jumped in and snuggled among us, his whole attitude changed. He was home, and we were family, and that was that.  

All that was more than a decade ago.

Survivor

We lost Sierra in 2014, and Dash and Buddy became fast friends.  Dash showed Buddy “the ropes” in every situation.  We all went on walks, even runs, and Buddy learned the “wilds” of the school woods.  Buddy was a “good boy”, and became the “alert” dog when something was going on.  He could bark “above his weight class” when he needed to; we didn’t need doorbells anymore – Buddy knew.

Then Buddy got lumps in his throat.  Our fantastic local vet, Dr. Hickin, warned us that it might be bad news. She sent us to Med-Vet in Worthington, one of the Columbus emergency veterinary hospitals.  They made the diagnosis:  our Buddy had a form of cancer, lymphoma.  They could operate and remove the tumors, and he could take chemotherapy.  If everything went “well”, we could expect a couple more years.

There’s nothing cheap about dog medicine, but Buddy was only three, healthy and active.  And we found Dr. Malone, a veterinary oncologist, willing to try a new treatment protocol.  So we went with it; surgery, then an eleven-month long treatment with a drug that Jenn and I had to wear gloves to handle. It all worked: and at the end, Buddy had no signs of lymphoma, and got to be a “normal” dog once again.

Travelling Dogs

In the meantime, Jenn and I retired, and  the four of us travelled the country.  We drove out to Colorado, through New Mexico and back.  Dash and Buddy ran around the Ophir Pass near 12,000 feet in altitude, tried to be good “restaurant dogs” in Silverton, and got to walk by the Rio Grande in Albuquerque. 

That became our plan.  We bought a camper, to “snow-bird” in Florida. Just the four of us, Jenn and I, Dash and Buddy.  We used the camper to  go to see a solar eclipse (well, they sort of saw it, we were shading their eyes) in Tennessee, and had a late September break, hiking around at our favorite Ohio state park, Salt Fork.

Then cancer struck again, this time with Dash.  Within a couple of weeks, he went from healthy to struggling.  Dr. Hickin had sadness in her eyes as she sent us to Med-Vet once again.  This time it was a glioblastoma, sudden and deadly.  The medical choices were minimal and very short term, and we did the right thing for Dash, and let him go.

We were all devastated, but Buddy was the worst.  Dash was his guide and teacher, now he was on his own.  We headed to Florida, and spent the winter there.  Buddy became a “beach and bar” dog, comfortable in both environments.  That is, except for going in the ocean, he wasn’t much fond of waves.  But he’d jump in the intercoastal waterway for a swim, and loved hiking down the “Jungle Trail”.

When we came home in March, Buddy immediately searched the house for Dash.  So we decided he needed a new companion, who actually looked a lot like Dash.  We rescued Atticus from the Franklin County Shelter.  We soon discovered looks are deceiving.  Atticus was a wild man, not at all the intellectual Dash.  But Buddy did his best to show him the ropes, even if “Atticus-Baddicus” wasn’t a very willing learner.

Leader of the Pack

We tried camping with Atticus and Buddy, but it was difficult.  And then we got involved with finding lost dogs. Some were found who didn’t have owners.  Soon we had Keelie, our caring Australian shepherd mix, and then Louisiana, rescued from the parking lot of Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge.  And, somewhere in the middle of Covid, we also gained CeCe, a mix puppy found in a storm sewer in Dayton.

Camping with five dogs was out of the question.  Buddy became the “old man” of the pack, helping each new entry find their place.  Even when the other dogs were “arguing” about where they stood, Buddy tried to maintain the peace.  And even as Buddy grew older, he still gamely raced across the yard to drive squirrels from our “territory”, even if he was now last in the chase.  And when someone was doing something “wrong” in the backyard, Buddy was the first to let us know.

Buddy was our evening “time keeper”.  He told everyone when it was time for dinner.  But, like his Mom, Buddy was happy to sleep in the mornings.  The others wouldn’t hear of it, and so Bud would grudgingly stagger out of the bedroom, looking sleepy and bedraggled, to join in the breakfast rituals.  He wanted to sleep, but he wasn’t going to miss a meal in the process.

Buddy wasn’t demanding (other than mealtimes).  Usually he’d “waddle” over a few times a day, to have his ears scratched, or a belly rub.  And his response was to stare at you with those bottomless brown eyes, sending his love deep into your soul.  And when he was done, he’d roll over, and catch up on his beauty sleep.

Dignity

That’s how we knew something  was really wrong last week.  Buddy wasn’t coming out for breakfast.  He didn’t really want to move at all, even to go outside.  But Buddy would never, ever, have an accident in the house.  It was undignified, something he wouldn’t allow.  So we managed to get him to the door, and he made what was now the long trip down the stairs to the backyard.  

Afterwards, Buddy lay panting in the hallway, trying to cool himself against the air conditioning duct.  The other dogs knew something was seriously wrong.  Keelie and Lou lay nearby, a vigil, with eyes on Buddy.  CeCe kept coming over to lick his face, and even Atticus was subdued. And while Jenn and I didn’t say it, we both had a pretty good idea what was happening.  Last Thursday, we took him in to see his favorite, Dr. Hickin, one more time.  And we saw that same sadness in her eyes, the unspoken message that she thought the worst.  

Best Boy

It was back to Med-Vet and a battery of tests to tell us what we already knew.  The lymphoma was back, now eight years later.  This time, treatment would only mean an extra couple of miserable months.

Jenn and I had our last few minutes with Buddy.  He was dopey from the tests and the drugs, but his eyes lit up and his ears perked when Jenn said, “You’ll get to run with Dash again”.  The folks at Med-Vet were gentle with him, and with us, as we said goodbye.  

There are now four dogs mourning at our house.  While they still go through the rituals of the day, there is always something missing, for them, and for us.  No one is telling me, “you’re late for dinner”.  No one is cheered as they come out of the bedroom door (except for Jenn, of course). It will take a while for us to all discover the new normal, a normal without Buddy.

I’ve got a friend who once told me after having to let his dog go, that he would never have another.  “It hurt so much, too much.  I can’t go through that again”.  And he was right about one thing.  It does hurt, so much.   But I am so glad we had the opportunity to have Buddy:  a rescue, a miracle, a beach dog and a bar dog and the “best boy” ever.  Missing him hurts now,  a lot.  But our good memories are forever. 

Goodbye, Buddy, thanks for everything.  You were the best.

Dog Stories

• Dash 10/24/2017
• Affordable Dog Act 8/18/2019
• Camping with the Dogs – 10/24/2019
• Good Hearts  9/2/2020
• Friday the Thirteenth – 11/13/2020
• Hiking with Jack – 1/31/2021
• A Dog Story – 2/25/2021
• Lou’s Saga – 5/14/2021
• Lost Dog of Eldora – 7/30/2021
• Dogs Lost and Found – 11/21/2021
• Origin Stories – 5/22/22
• Origin Stories – Part Two 5/29/22
• Pataskala Downs – 7/4/22
• New to the Pack – 8/21/22
• A Tale of Turkey, and Dogs – 11/26/23
• Bruno’s Story – 12/3/23
• Rube Goldberg – 1/12/24
• A Sad, Sad, Dog – 2/11/24
• Singing in the Tornado – 3/3/24
• Requiem for Buddy – 9/30/24

Polarization

In our polarized political world, it’s difficult to have a “civil” discussion about controversial issues.  Our current debates about access to abortion are a great example.  The Pro-Choice side claims that Pro-Life takes away the right of women to choose what happens to their bodies.  It’s a “freedom” argument.  The Pro-Life side says that abortion is murder, and kills a human life.  It’s a “moral” argument.  And both sides often degenerate into name-calling and horrible imagery.  Pro-Choice:  Pro-Life wants to enslave women to their moral/religious view. Pro-Life:  Pro-Choice are murderers doing Satan’s work (I heard that just yesterday).

Once the argument gets to that point, there’s no going back.  Compromise is either making a “deal” to take away freedom, or a literal “deal with the devil”.  The now over-ruled Roe v Wade Supreme Court logic was the compromise; now the current Dobbs Decision simply takes the intractable argument out of the Courts, and onto state legislatures.

The list of issues grows:  guns, immigration, vaccination, history, racial equity.  And one by one, they have stopped being “debate topics”, available for discussion, and become “a hill to die on”.  Our current political climate is a mountain range of issues, each peak dramatically defended.  There seems to be no valley, no stream, where the two sides can even meet.  Any move toward compromise is seen as a betrayal to “the cause”.

Just a Pinch

“Permission structure” is a political term in vogue these days, but  it’s been around for a while.  In advertising, it was used to persuade folks to do something that they considered “not appropriate”.  An example:  in the late 1970’s, it was clear that cigarettes were unhealthy, and bad for athletic performance.  

But the tobacco industry had a different product to sell, snuff; and wanted to create a “permission structure” for young athletes to use tobacco without impacting their athletic abilities.  So they advertised the product on television with a great athlete, future Hall of Fame running back Earl Campbell of the Houston Oilers.  In the commercials, he showed his athletic prowess, followed by the line, “A pinch is all it takes”.  

If Skoal was OK for Earl Campbell, Skoal was OK for aspiring high school athletes.  They had his “permission”.  And it worked.  Use of snuff was endemic among high school male athletes throughout the 1980’s and 90’s.  Campbell by then was in the Hall of Fame and on a cane, but it was a rite-of-passage for young men to “take a pinch”.   And since it was a nicotine product, one pinch led to another, and nicotine addiction.

Political Cover

But it was the Obama Administration, particularly the “brain trust” of Dan Pfeiffer and David Axelrod, who used the term “permission structure” to explain how to frame issues in a way that allowed Republicans in Congress to support it.  At the time, Republicans were faced with the Tea Party (the pre-cursor to Trump and the MAGA movement).  Any deal with Democrats might mean getting “primaried” in the next election, with an opponent going to the political “right” and using cooperation as a cudgel. 

 So the “permission structure” included a justification that might relieve that risk.  It worked, particularly on issues like Government shutdowns.  The “deal” to end the shutdown would include some item that Republicans could take home as a victory in their war to stop Democrats. “Sure we let them open the government, but we got THIS!!!!”

But the best example of creating a “permission structure”, was in the 2024 Democratic Convention this past August.  In what obviously is going to be a very close election, Democrats tried to convince Republicans, particularly Never-Trump Republicans, to support a progressive Black woman from California for President of the United States.  It sounds like an impossible task.  

For America

There are differences between the political parties on economics, taxation, immigration, guns, healthcare, and all of the other “normal” issues.  So Democrats framed the election in “existential” terms:  Donald Trump is a threat to the American Democracy.  They invited Republicans to the convention to tell their fellow party members that the question of democracy was more important than all of the other normal arguments.  A former Trump White House Press Secretary, the Mayor of Mesa, a Pence aide, the former Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, and a former US Congressman, all Republicans; spoke to their fellow party members from the Democratic podium.

They told fellow Republicans that voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz wasn’t betraying their party, but standing up for America.  And, they have been followed by a whole galaxy of Republican leaders, including Vice President Dick Cheney and Congressman Liz Cheney. 

 Republicans for Harris are trying to create the “permission structure” for other Republicans who might vote for Trump; out of habit, loyalty to the Republican Party, or who might decide to sit out the election all-together.  With their “structure” is the implied promise:  America needs to survive Trump first; then we can get back to all of the other issues we care about. 

Like Earl Campbell’s “pinch” of snuff, the Republicans for Harris are trying to create a “structure” to give their fellow party members permission to find a way out of MAGA world to vote for Harris and Walz.  The facts:  2016 was decided by 77,744 votes in the critical swing states.  2020 was decided by 44,000.   Every vote makes a difference, no matter the political affiliation of the voter.   If Republicans need “permission” to vote for Harris, they’ve got it. 

 And that’s good for America.

Education 

Here in Ohio, early voting starts on October 8^th, two weeks from yesterday.  When I was a High School Government teacher, I helped register my seniors who were eligible to vote.  I don’t know if current teachers do that; politics in the classroom seems to be the “third rail” of education.  I didn’t do it for any partisan reasons.  My kids didn’t know my own politics, and frankly, most of them likely voted against the folks I supported.  But that didn’t matter.  I was a Government teacher, and voting is the single, critical act that every citizen can take to participate in their government.  It not only made sense to get them registered, it was a duty.

It’s been eighteen years since I was in that classroom (the building I taught in isn’t even a high school anymore).  I’ve “revealed” my political leanings since I retired; if you’re reading this essay you probably know all about that.  But voting is still a civic duty, even if we don’t agree on who to vote for.  To paraphrase French Enlightenment philosopher Voltaire:  “I may not agree with who you vote for, but I will defend to the death your right to do so”.

Ohio Residents

Most of this applies to Ohio residents (and particularly in Licking County), and different states have differing rules.  If you’re outside of Ohio, check with your state Secretary of State (the election folks) or your local Board of Elections.  Here’s the link to every state’s Secretary of State. (Note – Hawaii is a little different, of course – so here’s their link).

Step one:  register to vote.  October 7^th is the LAST day to register in Ohio.  Local Licking County folks can do so at the Board of Elections in Newark; or at the Driver’s License Bureau on Township Road, or the Pataskala Library on Vine Street, both in Pataskala.  And, since it’s the 21^st Century, here’s the Ohio  Secretary of State’s online registration site.

Not sure if you’re registered in Ohio (or still registered, or at the correct address)?  Here’s the link to check all of that:  Voter Information Search.

The next day, October 8th, you can vote early if you want to.  You go to your county board of elections, here in Licking County it’s in Newark, and cast your ballot, just like you would do on election day.  There are twenty-three days to vote in October and early November.  Here’s the link for Licking County’s  schedule.

Full Monty

And finally, if you want to get the “full Monty” of elections, you can vote at your regular polling place on Election Day, on November 5^th.  Where is your polling place?  Go back up to the Voter Information Search.  You can find your polling place, request an absentee ballot to be sent to your address, and see your voting history back to 2010.  (No, you can’t see who you voted for.  You can see that you did vote, and if it was in a primary election, which ballot you asked for; Democrat, Republican, or Non-Partisan.)

If you get an absentee ballot, make sure you carefully fill out all the requirements, on the ballot, and on any envelopes the ballot goes in.  Some require signatures on the “outer envelope”, many require signatures, dates, and other information on the inner envelope.  If that information is missing, your absentee ballot may be voided – so take some time and get it right.  If you don’t want to mail it, there is a “drop-box” in front of the Board of Elections office in Newark, or you can go in during early voting hours and hand it to them.

In Person Voting

If you chose to vote in-person, either early or on election day, in Ohio you are required to have a photo ID with you.  Here’s the link for what ID’s are acceptable:  Voter ID.

If you are registered, if you have a photo ID, 99.4% of the time (I made that up) you won’t have any issues voting at your polling place.  But sometimes, stuff happens.  If for some reason the election officials won’t give you a ballot (or if there’s a system breakdown of some kind), here’s what to do:

• 1.  Don’t leave the Polling Place (if you leave without voting – you didn’t count)
• 2.  Ask to speak to the Precinct Election Official in Charge
• 3.  Help them rectify any issues they have – and if that doesn’t work
• 4. Ask to vote on a “Provisional Ballot”
• 5. IF none of that works – call the ACLU (even if you’re a Republican) – they can help Election Protection Hotline   1-866-687-8683. Also, both political parties will have their own hotlines set up on election day (Dems, Reps) – as well as the League of Women’s Voters (the least partisan choice).

If you do vote provisionally, it means that you will “fix” the ballot at the board of elections later (usually in the next couple days).  Provisional votes do not get counted unless they are “cured”, so don’t forget to go “cure” it.

Now, if you want to know WHO to vote for…

I’ll give you MY ballot choices in the next few days.  You probably won’t be surprised.  

Old Timer

I ain’t no mathematician (and obviously no grammarian either).  But statistics were a part of my life for a long time.  Take track and field.  In the “good old days”, before all of the fancy cameras (the ones that take a picture of “time over the finish line”, instead of space – see below) and automatic start timers, we used devices called stopwatches.  If there were eight racers, there were eight or more people designated as timers.  They all watched the starter. When they saw smoke from his gun, they pushed the button to start their watch.  Then they focused on the finish line, and when the torso of the runner they were timing crossed, they pushed the button again.

Really good timers would be consistent, both from race to race and with each other.  And so with experienced timers, two people could time the same place, and get the same time, within a tenth of a second.  And there was a rule in the book:  if two timers timed the same place, the slower time counted.  A tenth of a second was a good as humans could get.  Even when electric watches came that timed to the hundredth of a second, we (by the book) always rounded up to the next slowest tenth.  So a time in the 100 meters of 10.90 was 10.9, but 10.91 was 11.0.  We recognized that no one was good enough to catch the exact hundredth.  

Wiggle Room

(By the way, now with fully automatic timing the same rule applies, but to a different order of magnitude.  The “machine” normally places times to the hundredth of a second.  10.90 is 10.90, and 10.91 is slower.  But, if two athletes run 10.90, the machine can go to the thousandth. 10.895 is faster than 10.897.  But if two athletes run 10.895, then it’s a tie.  Even the fully automatic start and video cameras have limits.)

In track time and measuring there is always a margin of error.  Discus is measured to the lesser inch; shot, high jump, pole vault and long jump to the lesser quarter-inch.  We recognize that there is a margin of error in measurement, just like we recognize there is one in timing.  (With improvements in laser measuring, that may someday get “tighter”, like timing did. Tape measures are already being replaced by laser sights and reflecting pins). 

Ok, I’ve beat the margin of error concept to death.  But the same thing is true in lots of other forms of measuring, and it’s easy to be fooled.  So to quote the British Rockers The Who, we “Won’t get fooled again!!” 

NBC Poll

NBC News announced the results of their newest poll Sunday.  This new survey has Kamala Harris at 49%, and Donald Trump at 44%.   Steve Kornacki, the NBC polling “guru” was almost giddy in describing it, showing the big shift from July. Those results had then-candidate Biden with 43% and Trump at 45%.  But here’s the problem, that damned margin of error thing.  The mathematical margin of error in this poll is +/- 3.1%.  That means that Harris could be as low as 45.9%, and Trump could be as high as 47.1%.  Or it means that Harris could be at 52.1%, and Trump 41.9%.  Or anywhere in between.  

And the July poll was the same way.  So, given the margin of error, what does this poll really tell us?  It’s close.  That’s all.  And perhaps, it looks like Harris is doing better than Biden, but it’s all within the margin of error, so there’s no sure thing. 

Listen, Americans all want a winner and a loser.  It’s great to see the Bengals and the Chiefs, Burrow and Mahomes, battle it out on the football field.  We marvel at the accuracy of their passing, and the agility of their runs.  But, in the end, we really remember one thing.  The Chiefs won the game (Dammit, wait until next time!!).

We want to evaluate polls like they were scores.  So we ignore “margins of error” and just say “we’re winning” or “they’re losing”. And, in the end polls might give us some sense of what’s going on, but they are very, very, deceptive.  We are fooled because we want a score.  Don’t get fooled again!!

Pictures of Time

And, by the way, even if the results are beyond the margins of error:  polls are a lot like those photo-finish pictures you see from the track meet.  While it looks like a “u” shape with all the runners, it’s actually a picture of the exact same finish line, taken over time as each runner crosses the line.  The faster runners are in front, because they finished first.  If you look closely at the picture you’ll see the  thin, red finish line, over and over again as each runner crossed.  The space between the lines – is the time interval between the  first runner and the next, all the way to eighth.

How much did Noah Lyles win the Olympic Gold Medal by?  The slim difference between the first and second red lines, 9.784 to 9.789,  5 thousandths of a second. The photo-finish picture is of a moment (or about ½ a second) in time.  If they lined up and did it again, it might be completely different.

In the same way, polls, even beyond the margins, are simply a snapshot of a moment in the political race.  The only finish line is on election day, 41 days away. That’s the only time it counts.

Let me paraphrase President Obama:

 “Don’t cheer, VOTE.”

Boring Ohio

Ohio has a reputation as a “boring” state, where nothing big ever happens. In the heat of the current social-media Presidential crisis in Springfield, Ohio’s leadership acts like they’re trying to do the right thing.  Even Governor DeWine has found courage in his lame duckness.  His career is over, with nothing more to win. So he can stand and scold the Trump/Vance ticket without fear of retribution.  In two years, he’ll be retired to his country estate in Cedarville, a rural college village just ten miles south of Springfield.  And he still supports Trump, so he can show up at the local diner for lunch.

But in reality, Ohio is one of the most corrupt states in the Union.  Behind the façade of big rust-belt cities and gentle cornfields, the politics of Ohio is all about money and power.  The former Speaker of the State House of Representatives took a $60 million bribe from an energy company.  That’s not the worst of it. While almost every State Republican politician was involved, they were all more than happy to let that Speaker stand alone in Federal Court (he’s now serving a twenty year sentence).  The two other Party leaders legally snared in the scandal did “the right thing” for their party.  They committed suicide.  And that’s only the tip of the iceberg.

Power Corrupts

 Not to be too partisan, but corruption is endemic to the Republican Party.  That’s not because Democrats can’t be corrupt.  It’s simply that the state government is so overwhelmingly Republican, that Democrats don’t stand a chance of “bellying up” to the money bar.  Democrats in the state legislature are forced to choose which side of the Republican agenda to support:  extreme or extremely extreme.  The Democrats talk a good game, but they are powerless.

There’s a political axiom:  “Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”.  If you need to see that in action, come to Ohio.

Politically Ohio is (at most) 55% Republican, 45% Democrat.  Yet the state legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, with 66% of the House seats, and 79% of the State Senate seats in Republican hands.  Sure, it’s a veto-proof majority.   But no need to worry about vetoes. The Governor is also Republican, along with all of the other state-wide elected executives .  And the State Supreme Court is split four Republicans to three Democrats.  If that’s not enough power; the Governor’s son is one of the Supreme Judges; a Republican, of course.

Gerrymandering

The foundation of Republican power is the ability to draw the state legislative districts.  As long as they can draw the map, they can control the state legislature.  Newsweek rates Ohio as the third most “gerrymandered” state in the Nation, behind West Virginia and Wisconsin. (Newsweek).  So it’s not a surprise that Republicans will do almost anything to hold onto that precious ability to decide who votes in what legislative district.

Gerrymandering is nothing new.  In fact, the name itself came from 1812, when the Governor of Massachusetts, Elbridge Gerry, drew a district that looked like a salamander – a “Gerrymander” the newspapers called it.   It’s a straight-forward process.  Divide the state so that one particular party’s voters are maximized, and the other party is minimized.  Either give the weaker party a few concentrated districts, or split up and dilute concentrations of opposition strength into multiple districts.  In Ohio that becomes a few overwhelmingly Democratic districts, then a lot of “pie slice” districts, where urban/Democrat areas find themselves diluted by huge swaths of rural/Republican areas.  And, of course, there are the remaining Republican areas, too far from any Democrats to matter.

On the Map

A quick example is Ohio’s 15^th Congressional District.  It stretches from the Republican suburbs of Dayton, around but excluding the Democratic areas of Springfield, then continues to pick up the Democratic west and south sides of Columbus.  It then extends far south to include Chillicothe and all of the countryside in between.  The District is nearly 100 miles east to west and 100 miles north to south, carefully diluting Democratic pockets with large swathes of Republican countryside.   It’s a great example of Gerrymandering reducing the power of one party and enhancing the other.

(Trivia Question:  what does the west side of the City of Cincinnati and the village of Ansonia, a farm community in Western Ohio more than a hundred miles north, have in common? Not much, except the same Congressman.  Both “towns” are in the 8^th Congressional District).

Extremists Win

Besides creating super-majorities in the legislatures, gerrymandering also makes the primary election the only one that really counts.  In most districts here in Ohio, whether a Republican or a Democrat will win the general election is seldom in question.  Who will represent the majority party in that election; that’s selected in the primary.  And since primary voters are usually more motivated and partisan than general election voters, the majority party often selects the more extreme candidate over moderate ones.  All that means  that the legislature is not only loaded, but also extreme; elected by the few Party voters rather than the majority of voters closer to the “middle”.

Ohioans look to two institutions to reform re-districting.  First, Ohio has an “initiative” process. Citizens can place a State Constitutional Amendment directly up for a vote, bypassing the legislature.  In both 2015 and 2018, re-districting reform was passed by better than 70%.  However, the state legislature and executives failed to follow those amendments, and the state remains skewed.

Scofflaws

When the Amendments were ignored, reformers went to the state Supreme Court for help.  And for a while, even though the Court was four Republicans to three Democrats, the Republican Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor sided with Democratic Justices and reformers.  Unfortunately, Republican legislators and executives chose to ignore the Court rulings, and Gerrymandering continued.   Then Justice O’Connor was age-limited out of the Court.  Now the four Republicans rubber-stamp their fellow partisans in the other branches.

So Justice O’Connor led a reform movement herself, one to take re-districting completely out of the hands of career politicians.  Her proposal establishes a non-politician board, divided evenly among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.  That board would follow a carefully written mandate to re-district based on community and county boundaries, maximizing competitive districts.  This was written into a proposed State Constitutional Amendment, and will appear as “Issue One” this November.

Flip the Script

The State Elections Board is chaired by the Secretary of State, Republican Frank LaRose, and dedicated to the gerrymandered status quo.  The Board gets to write the “ballot language” that will appear to every voter.  Even though Issue One supporters got over a half a million registered voter signatures on carefully worded petitions, the Elections Board literally flipped the script.  In a two column, ten point “explanation”on every ballot, the Election Board describes the Issue as a “Gerrymandering Amendment”.

• Repealing constitutional exceptions against gerrymandering passed in 2015 and 2018
• Eliminate the ability of voters to hold their representatives accountable for districts
• Establish a tax funded commission to manipulate boundaries to favor the two largest Parties in the state
• Require that a majority of the “partisan” commission are members of the two major parties
• Prevent commission members from removal for gross misconduct or willful neglect
• Reduce the ability to challenge re-districting in court
• Describes in detail the complex process of appointing commission members for ½ of an entire column
• Describes in detail the complex process of commission voting
• “Limits the right of Ohio citizens to freely express their opinions to members of the commission”
• Impose new taxpayer-funded costs.

And when Issue One supporters went to the Ohio Supreme Court to challenge the inverted explanation, the Court ruled four to three that it was “just fine”: no surprise there.

Ohio Knows

I know what Issue One is.  It’s the best “shot” to change Ohio’s gerrymandered corruption.  I’m going to vote for Issue One. Issue One is not what the Ballot Language says.  In fact, the current process of behind closed doors, computer generated re-districting maps and Republican scoffing at Ohio law and voters is much closer to that ballot explanation than the real Issue One.  And, if Issue One passes, it will be the petition language, that hundreds of thousands of Ohioans signed, not the warped ballot language, that will be law.

I think Frank LaRose out-smarted himself again.  There’s so much, closely typed and intricate language on the ballot, that most voters won’t even bother to read it.  They’ll listen to the real information outside the polling place, and, just like LaRose’s manipulations with 2023’s Issue One last August (to make the initiative process near impossible and stop the abortion amendment – it failed) and last November (the Abortion amendment itself, it passed and is now a right enshrined in the State Constitution), Ohio voters will figure it all out.  

And maybe, for the first time since I was in college back in the 1970’s, I’ll get to vote in truly contested Congressional, State Representative and State Senator races once again.

• Sign, sign, Everywhere a sign, Blocking out the scenery, 
• Breakin’ my mind, Do this, Don’t do that,
• Can’t you read the sign?  
• – Signs  The Five Man Electrical Band, 1971 (re-recorded by Tesla, 2007)

Polarization

For the past decade, the polarization of the United States was best defined by a simple drive.  In the city, there are few political signs, except in the carefully defined sixty days before the elections (a city ordinance that was ultimately declared unconstitutional, but still honored).  But get past the outer-belt, where concrete buildings turn into suburban homes, and then alternating fields of corn and soybeans; and, signs change.  For almost a decade, the informal “definition” of the countryside wasn’t a John Deere tractor or a Rural King store.  It was thousands of “Trump” signs.

Not just signs either.  There were Trump flags, Trump billboards (Trump-Pence until after January 6^th), Trump mannikins (get your picture taken with “him”); and for the stouter supporters, first the “Jail Hillary”, then “F**K Biden” flags in Trump colors. (One particular large F-Biden flag was displayed across the street from a neighboring middle school.  I wonder how the social studies teachers handled that).  I live in a “red” portion of Ohio, ten miles outside of the outer-belt, so Trump stuff wasn’t a surprise to me.  But to my “city-mouse friends”, out for a drive; there was often shock and fear.  They were in TRUMP COUNTRY, and they were unnerved by it.

Fractured Arc

In 2016, before the great catastrophe of the November election, it was easy to shrug off Trump.  The Nation seemed on a pre-destined course, Dr. King’s “arc of the moral universe”.  Barack Obama was elected and re-elected by large majorities, the next logical step was Hillary.  The path of the American experiment was clear.  It was easy to see Trump-ism as only a small portion of our Nation quailing from the future; seeking to return to a fictional past.

But if you took a drive, you’d know differently.  The signs were everywhere, establishing an unwritten “code” of uniformity.  Fealty to Trump became a “condition” of living out here.   Only the courageous few had Hillary or Biden signs.  And while in my neighborhood those political aberrations were somewhat tolerated, in conversation we were “those people” who thought different.  I appreciated my neighbors who could get beyond “signs”, but I also realize there are neighbors who haven’t had much to say since 2016.

In 2016 Trump-ism drove voters to the polls.  In our narrowly divided country, voter “turnout” is king, and in 2016 the “country-mouse vote” showed up for him.  The city-mouse vote did not show up for her, so Hillary lost by the slimmest of margins.

We Won, We Won

A lot of “signs” didn’t come down after 2016.  Trump country, the “Red-MAGA Hat club”, tattered Trump-Pence signs remained up for four years, a mark of victory against “the arc of the universe”.  In 2020 the signs were rejuvenated, increased in size, updated (some in marker) to the current election.  And the MAGA vote showed up again, even stronger than it did in 2016.  

It’s no wonder that Donald Trump is confused about who won the 2020 election.  He did better than 2016, he got more votes than anyone, (yes, anyone) before him, except one.  The “country-mouse” vote came to the polls (because Covid wasn’t a thing for them – right?) in record numbers.  The difference was, the city-mouse vote showed up in even greater records, voting early, and by mail, and then overwhelmingly on election day despite the risk of Covid.  Joe Biden got the most votes ever in a Presidential election, and won just a narrowly as Trump did in 2016.

Last Summer Drive

And the signs still stayed up, for a while.  But wind and rain and snow took its toll on the Trump/Pence signs, even the ones with Pence’s name cut off.   And while the stalwarts still had their flags, it seemed to dwindle.  A drive in the country might yield only a few “Trump” sightings, not the back-to-back-to-back of 2020.

Now we are in 2024, less than fifty days before the election.  I took a drive yesterday down to Lancaster, Ohio to see one of my favorite cross country meets.  Like many of those late September competitions, it was mid-summer hot with high pushing ninety.  So I took my Jeep, top up but all of the windows out.  (It’s almost time to go “winter” mode on it).  A kind of last “summer” drive in the country.

Give me a Sign

And what surprised me is what I didn’t see.  Sure, there were a few “Trump/Vance” signs, but not many (maybe seven or eight).  And there were actually some homes along the highway that dared a Harris/Walz sign (a couple).  So I’ve been trying to decide what that means.

Does it mean that the “country-mouse” vote is less Trumpy?  I don’t believe it; at least here in Pataskala, the “battle lines” are still clearly drawn.  But does it mean that the “country” isn’t as motivated as they were in 2016 and 2020; aren’t as dedicated to MAGA as they were before?  And will that dedication result in a lesser turnout, coupled with a greater Harris turnout in the “city-mouse” areas?

Or is there some vast MAGA conspiracy to keep the signs down.  Is our polarization so set in stone that it no longer requires a “sign” to display loyalty, and the MAGA turnout will be just as great as before?  I don’t have a good answer.

I’ll keep looking for a sign.

ASTM

I am a dues paying member of  ASTM International.  ASTM used to stand for the American Society for Testing and Measurement, an organization that set industry standards for things like the required density of concrete used in highway bridges or the varying characteristics of plastic.  It doesn’t sound like the usual political, educational or athletic group I involve myself with.  But they also make recommendations about the size of pole vault mats, and all the other safety equipment required.  That’s right up my alley.  So I’m on ASTM, Committee F08 (Sports Equipment), Sub Committee 67 on pole vault.

And that’s why I get the monthly “Standards” magazine, which usually doesn’t get too far into the house.  But this month, one of the “standards” discussed how to protect schools, and that’s an area where I used to have a significant amount of professional concern.  So I read it.

Tempered Glass

There was a lot of talk about tempered glass, not completely bullet-proof glass, but bullet resistant to make it more difficult for a school shooter to gain access to the building.  The glass is tempered with coatings that prevented it from shattering, instead just leaving bullet holes from the testing device (an AR-15). The shooter would then have to bust in the rest with his gun, or kick it out with his foot.  It wouldn’t stop him, but buys additional time. That gives schools  more opportunity to react. This standard was for school shootings like Sandy Hook in Connecticut and the Covenant School in Nashville.

The article also went into detail about “bollards”, the concrete posts designed to stop a careening vehicle from crashing into the school or a car bomb from parking too close. It explained how the “bollards” could be reinforced by brick walls or weakened by placement uphill from the “target” building.  That’s more of a reaction to terror attacks throughout the world, but still applies to the ultimate soft target, a school.  

The Cavalry

It discussed the use of metal detectors, (three kinds, hand attached, hand held, or standing arches). Wisely, it spoke of placing metal detection in some area of the school that could be locked away from the main part of the building, should a weapon be discovered.   If metal detection is in the main hall, the “gun” is already in the building.  That’s why newer buildings are built with a two-stage entryway.

And the article also mentioned video cameras, and pointed out the obvious.  Cameras don’t stop anything.  While they serve to alert staff what’s going on, in general, cameras are more for evidence after the fact rather than alerting and averting the event all-together.  There is the one exception:  the roving shooter, like the Marjorie Stoneman Douglas shootings in Florida.  Building cameras can be used by staff and law enforcement to target the “cavalry” for the rescue. 

Proactive

And I guess that’s the whole point.  Schools “standards”, like the Secret Service with their protectees, are  mostly “reactive”.   Sure, the Secret Service will “take a bullet” for their protectees, but the real point is to stop that first bullet from being fired.  Apalachee High School in Georgia did a wonderful job of getting School Resource Officers to the shooter.  The two police officers risked their lives to protect staff and students from further attack.  But there were already four dead, and nine wounded.  Certainly lives were saved. But it was reactive, not proactive.

The Secret Service has a vast population to look to, and folks of every political persuasion to worry about.  They require a huge network of intelligence to stay ahead of possible violence.  But schools have a much narrower “pool” of candidates.  Sure, there’s a possible random stranger, but evidence shows that most school shooters are either current or former students.   Schools know them, which creates an opportunity for intervention before the worst case occurs.  The school just needs to know to intervene.

Apalachee

The Apalachee High shooter’s mother called the school about thirty minutes before the attack. She said her child was “in crisis” and needed immediate contact.  Did she tell the school that the crisis involved in AR-15? Not to my knowledge.  But the school counselors and administration did their best to reach him.  That all takes time; from the counselor to an administrator, to look up the schedule, and to physically get to the student.  

And, as any parent picking up their kid from high school can tell you; just because he’s scheduled in room 410 at 10:00am, doesn’t mean he’s in Room 410 at 10:00am.  There’s all sorts of legitimate reasons for a kid to be out of class:  restroom, band room, library, office, guidance, tutoring, nurse.  Sure the teacher in Room 410 should and probably does know where he is, but that just means more time. The clock is ticking. At Apalachee they didn’t reach him in time to stop the carnage.

Lessons

There are lots of things the 1999 Columbine school shootings taught us.  Now, teachers hide students out of the shooter’s sight, barricade doors and prepare to defend them if breeched.  If there’s a clear line of escape out of the building –  go!!  But the biggest lesson of Columbine was this:  the shooters were plotting their attack for months.  Like the 9-11 attacks, there were plenty of people who knew pieces of what they were plotting. But there was no one who could put the pieces together.

And that’s on the school.  Administrators, Guidance, Teachers, Staff (nurses, cooks, custodians, bus drivers, SRO’s, and the folks who know EVERYTHING – secretaries) and students need to communicate about kids that might be at risk.  It’s not usually the “bad” kids; everyone knows them.  It’s the kid that few know.   When I first went into education they were called the “Cipher in the Snow” kids. (Cipher in the Snow was a short-film put out by Brigham Young University back in 1974 about a kid who dies and no one knows him).  

Web of Concern

Kids need to find some adult they can talk to.  Adults need to find kids they can relate with.  Adults have to talk to other adults, and kids to kids.  There has to be a web of communication, so that if someone is going wrong, other folks know and action (pro-action) can be taken.  It’s that web of protection that doesn’t have an ASTM “standard”, but it is the best defense against school violence.

A school can put up tempered glass.  They can structure a “safe” building, and practice “active shooter drills”.  There can be advanced plans for “evasion” and “rendezvous”.  They can surround the entrances with bollards. All of those are reactions, and they are all absolutely necessary. Any school without those plans is committing “malpractice”.  

But, the only proactive method to try to evert school shootings is creating lines of communication between kids and adults; parents and staff. Those lines can forewarn against a student going “over the edge”.  It’s a “web” of communication and support.  And that needs to be a defined “plan”, just as much as the plan to lock the door and hide in the farthest corner.  A parent calls about their kid; or a kid comes off the bus with word that a friend is in crisis; that must become the most important thing.   It’s priority “one”, even in these days when there are always lots of very important priorities.  The “web” of concern is the best chance to avoid the unimaginable.   

Tradecraft

It’s amazing tradecraft.  No one’s admitting anything, but Mossad, the Israeli Intelligence Agency, was able to sabotage the pagers used for communication by Hezbollah, the terrorist group that holds sway in Lebanon.  Thousands of them exploded at 3:30 pm on the belts and in the hands and pockets of Hezbollah operatives yesterday, killing 8 (and 1 child) and injuring more 2800.  The “mini-explosions” occurred in offices, homes, stores, cars, and on the streets.  They rocked Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and sent ambulances screaming all over town. 

And why did Hezbollah issue pagers to it’s operative?  Because the leadership was convinced that Mossad was tracking their cell phones, and wanted private communications.  The “old school” technology of pagers isn’t as traceable as modern phones.  So Hezbollah made a mass purchase of the devices from a company called Apollo Gold in Taiwan, with the actual pagers manufactured under license in Hungary.   Somewhere in that supply train, Mossad managed to secret explosive and a trigger into each of the pagers.

In the past, Mossad was able to get exploding cell phones in the hands of individual Hamas and Hezbollah members, but this attack was on a massive scale.  And while the death count was relatively low, the explosive wounds were severe, removing those operatives from the “battlefield” for an extending period of time, and putting a huge burden on the Lebanese health services.  With an estimated 40,000 fighters, the pager attack made a major dent in Hezbollah effectiveness.

Tit for Tat

It’s the kind of long-term, highly technical operation that Mossad specializes in.  And it’s being seen as a great victory for the Israeli government.  As the destruction of Hamas in Gaza winds down and ceasefire talks remain stalled, Hezbollah has been putting increased pressure on the Israeli north.  Rocket attacks killed dozens of Israeli civilians. The terrorist group has as many as 150,000 rockets aimed at the country.  While Hamas in Gaza was relatively “low tech”, Hezbollah is well supported by Iran, and represents a serious threat to Israel.

But, this is not a “tit-for-tat” response to Hezbollah.  It is a dramatic escalation of the “northern front” battle, one that seems designed to inflame conflict there.  Meanwhile, the Israeli government is “hellbent” to destroy every last vestige of Hamas in Gaza.  It seems like they will level the region, with little regard for the “collateral damage” in civilian destruction and death.  So, as Israel wraps up its destruction of Hamas (and much of Gaza in the process), they are literally picking a larger fight with Hezbollah in the north.

A full-on war with Hezbollah, a terrorist group and non-state actor, will certainly draw in the nation-states of Lebanon and Syria, all backed by Iran.  It is the opening to a generalized war in the Middle East.  It’s hard to see any other Israeli goal for such a broad attack.

Biblical Right

Perhaps, that’s exactly what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants.  Any ceasefire with Hamas would likely include a recognition of the United States’ goal of a “two-state solution”, requiring a sovereign Palestinian state.  And the forces that maintain Netanyahu in power aren’t interested in a Palestinian state. 

 They are interested in the land that the Palestinian state would occupy, seeing it as a “reasonable” expansion of the state of Israel, mandated by Biblical history.  But the only way to really achieve that goal, is to change the entire static map of the region, established after the 1967 War.  That’s when Israel  conquered the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank region.  To “rearrange the table” again will require a similar upheaval.

War and Politics

And in a more practical political matter, continuing war seems to be the path for Netanyahu to maintain office.  While his political future seemed dark just a few months ago, current polling shows his coalition would lose some seats but maintain control of the government in an election.  And Netanyahu needs to stay in power.  Once removed, he would face legal sanctions and possible jail time.  So he has every reason to continue a war in the Middle East.

President Biden has tried to pressure the Netanyahu government to a ceasefire agreement, but clearly the Israeli Prime Minister is willing to gamble on US politics.  A Trump victory in November would put him in a much better position, a Harris victory wouldn’t make things any worse than they are now.  So politically, Netanyahu is better off fighting until November.  If there aren’t enough Hamas left to fight in Gaza, then why not raise the stakes with Hezbollah?  Worst case scenario, a full-on Middle East War, and the opportunity to redraw the maps.  

But there is a cost:  the soldiers and civilians on all sides will pay the ultimate price.  

Update – late Wednesday morning – more devices exploding in Lebanon. Updated casualty report – 12 dead over 3000 injured. Question- why would a Hezbollah member still be carrying their pager today??? Or late reports – maybe walkie-talkies??

Hamas/Israel War

• Bombs  in Your Pocket             9/18/24
• Political Survival                      7/31/24
• The Gaza Reservation             4/7/24
• Vengeance is Mine                  12/27/23
• There is No Peace                   12/4/23
• Israel, Democrats, and 2024   11/19/23
• Zero State Solution                 11/8/23
• Credible Sources                     10/31/23
• Fog of War                              10/20/23
• Truth of the Matter                 10/17/23
• Updates and Sadness              10/12/23
• Deserve to Die                         10/10/23

Government Class

I was a high school government teacher for the majority of my thirty-five and a half year educational career.  There was a lot of complex teaching going on:  the nuts and bolts of the US Constitution, the legal intricacies of our Court systems, and even the basics of finance and taxation.  And, somewhere in the middle of all that there was the “crazy-isms” lesson.   First was the “crazy-isms” of governing:  fascism, totalitarianism, anarchism, federalism and communism.  They along came democracies, monarchies, theocracies, autocracies, kleptocracies.  They were all ways to govern (or in anarchy’s case, not govern).  

We came up with memorable examples, often based on more familiar situations.  Gangs “ruled” through theft and intimidation – a kleptocracy.  Iran’s Supreme Leader was the head of the ruling religion – a theocracy.  Monarchs wore crowns, hereditary kingships; a monarchy.  Totalitarians wanted total control (from the military to toilet paper) – totalitarianism.

Basic Macro-Economics

Then we switched to economics.  Who owned businesses, who paid wages, who put products on the market.  More “isms”:  capitalism, socialism, Marxism.  Capitalists believed that “the means of production”, business and industry; should be owned by private individuals competing with each other. Socialists believed that the main businesses should be owned by the government, a government made up of the people, democratically elected.  

And Marxists (Communists) believed that “All of the means of production”, from farm lands to factories to retail stores selling goods (toilet paper – forest to mill to packaging to store) should be owned by the government, a government controlled by the Communist Party (another “crazy-ism”, an oligarchy, with “fake democratic” elections).  Marxism, at its core, was supposed to be a dictatorship of the workers; but it turned out to just be a dictatorship of the powerful, with workers hung out to dry and nowhere to turn.

Governing versus Owning

So when some claim that the American government is socialist or Marxist, they are conflating government with economic models.  The American Government is a complex Federal mixture, of fifty states that are governed by elected representatives:  Representative Democracies. And then there’s a separate National government, also an elected Representative Democracy.  None of that describes the economic model the United States follows.  Most of the elected are definitely Capitalists, a few are Socialists, and I’m not aware of any Marxists elected in the United States. 

So what is the economic model of the United States?  We are a “mixed economy”.  Our “base” plan is capitalism, private ownership of business, manufacturing, production, distribution and retailing.  But we also have government regulations of those industries.  We try to provide a “safety net” so that individuals and families don’t fall through into abject poverty.  The United States tries to provide food, housing, education and health care to every American.

There are no “Marxists” in the American Government.  And there are no “Communists” either.  When most of the other Nations of the world look at the United States, our economy is far less “controlled” by the government than theirs.  And, of course, if you look at the United States’ greatest economic rival, China; their economy is Communist, totally controlled by their government.

No Marxists

There are some socialists in American political life, but they seem “extreme” to most Americans.  Even Bernie Sanders is a “mixed economy” guy, though his mix includes a whole lot more government regulation than we have today.  And where is Kamala Harris?  She is to the “right” of Sanders on economic issues, in fact, she is right down the center-line of American economic theory.   

And what about Trump?  He certainly is more “pure capitalist” than Harris.  But he too takes advantage of government intervention. After all, bankruptcy is a government protection.  Trump declared bankruptcy six times in his career.  So Trump wants the ability to run his businesses without government regulation, but he still wants the “fallback position” of government protection.  That’s not pure capitalism,  there’s no “mercy” there.

So when the MAGA crowd calls Vice President Harris a “Marxist”, they are demonstrating one of two things. Either they didn’t listen to their Government teacher back in high school, and are ignorant of the “crazy-isms”, or they are willfully lying to the public.  Donald Trump is proud of graduating from the Wharton School of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania.  I suspect there was at least one macro-economics class on his schedule. He should know the differences in economic theories.  

I guess that makes him a liar:  surprised?

Full Disclosure

 I am not a “cat person”.  I earned that right honestly, at three years old.  We lived on Glenmary Avenue in Cincinnati, not far from the Zoo; with a cat named Bimbo. She was our house cat for as long as I remember, but somehow just disappeared. 

We had  woods behind the house. It seemed huge to a three-years old, like Winnie the Pooh’s hundred acre wood.  It was actually a quarter of an acre.   Anyway, one day I found Bimbo and went to grab her.  Now fully feral, she didn’t allow any of that, and I got scratched.  

So from that day forward, I was not, and am not, a cat person.

Cat Ladies

But since cats (and dogs, and geese) are playing such an important part in our politics today, I am standing up for cats.  The whole thing started a couple years ago, with an ill-advised comment by then-candidate for Senate from Ohio, JD Vance.  The “Hillbilly Elegy” author was talking to a conservative commentator, and used a glib and in-artful description of Progressives, and women Progressives especially.  He called them “childless cat ladies”. 

When Vance became the Republican nominee for Vice President, it started a deluge of “childless cat ladies” memes and references.  T-shirts supporting Kamala Harris appeared with the “childless cat lady” comment and pictures from kittens to tigers on the front.  Even Taylor Swift posted her endorsement of Harris with her cat.  But MAGA-world being what it is, Vance continued to double-down, further commenting that “post-menopausal” women’s role was to help raise children.  It seemed that Vance and the whole Trump campaign wouldn’t move off of the insults to younger women and older women, and, of course, to cats.

But Vice President Harris and Governor Walz were getting the better of the “cat lady” fight.  They called it what it was:  weird.  And that weird comment stuck in Trump’s craw like a hairball.  He spent time in his rallies ranting that he and Vance weren’t “weird” at all.  And, of course, the more he talked about it, the weirder he seemed to be.

Flip the Script

MAGA-world had to open up a second front, to flip the “cat” script.  And what better way to do that, then to make Trump the cat “savior”.  So it should be no surprise that a woman’s rant on Facebook, complaining about Haitians, made it to national attention.  As the REO Speedwagon song goes:  “(She) heard from a friend who, heard it from a friend, who, heard it from a friend…”.  Pets were being taken and eaten by Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio. Of course, (fact check) that wasn’t true.

But the MAGA internet network acted like a cat on catnip.  A video was attached to the comment, supposedly showing a Haitian in Springfield, Ohio, eating a dead cat in the street. (Turns out, it was a life-long, mentally deranged not-Haitian resident of and in Canton, Ohio. She was really eating a cat).  Added  to it was a photo of a black man carrying a dead goose along the road. (The picture was taken in Columbus, and the man was removing a goose that was run over).  So now, the Haitians were eating cats and geese. 

Fact Check

So there was “video evidence” of what now-illegal (they aren’t) Haitian migrants were doing in Springfield.  They’ll take the geese from your parks, and the cats (and soon dogs) from your neighborhoods, and eat them.  Trump and Vance, stood for pets and geese, and against their consumption by humans, especially illegal migrant humans from Haiti in Western Ohio. They took a Facebook rant (since retracted) about a rumor in Springfield, and made it a national “emergency”.

Of course, it’s all a fabrication, a very demonstrable fabrication.  But in our “post-truth” MAGA world, fact-checking is just another “tool” of Democrats to “lie”.  Fact-checkers used to generate righteous indignation; “How dare you question my ‘facts’”.  Now they’re just another “Boomer” or “Karen” to be ignored. As Ex-President Trump said in his debate with Vice President Harris, it must be true because, “…I saw it on TV”.  Along with the “Illegal immigrant gangs over-running cities,” in Aurora, Colorado and Dallas, Texas; it all fits in with the nativist MAGA message.  Illegal “brown” people are wrecking our country: vote for Trump.

Not Fair

There is an old phrase; “All’s fair in love, war and politics”.  And if this was all just an ugly, racist “Facebook fight” then, it wouldn’t really make a difference.  But there are real world consequences to the lies told by those running for the highest offices in the land.  Those lies impact people, and particularly the legal Haitian immigrants, of Springfield, Ohio.

The schools and city buildings have been closed by bomb threats.  Yesterday even the hospital was closed. The hard working Haitian migrants are worried that someone will take all of the nonsense to heart, and come to their town to “stop the madness”. A couple dozen “Proud Boys” just marched through town. Someone is likely to get hurt.  Someone is likely to get killed.  And all because the MAGA world had to get back at those “childless cat ladies”.

It was completely foreseeable.  And a man who was and wants to be President again should put community ahead of political gain.  But, of course, that’s far too much to ask.  Instead, all Springfield can do is hang onto their cats, and try to fortify themselves for the onslaught.

The Crisis

The famous pamphleteer Thomas Paine, wrote “The Crisis” in December of 1776, as Americans entered the second winter of the Revolution.  It’s opening paragraph starts with these epic words:

THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. 

The “summer soldier and sunshine patriot” were literal:  George Washington’s Army was encamped for the winter in Morristown, New Jersey. His victory in Trenton (the battle after the famous crossing of the Delaware River) occurred two days after “The Crisis” was published. The war would stretch four more long years until the final victory at Yorktown. 

American Winter

American history has several times when it seemed crisis had no end in sight.  The Civil War winters of 1863 and ‘64, the Great Depression winters of 1932 and ‘33, and the World War II winter of 1943 all tested “men’s souls”.  And historians will look back at the decade from 2015 to 2025, sadly – the “Trump Era”. They’ll see it  as a struggle to determine what view of the American Dream we will follow. 2024 is the pivotal year of that era. 

Like the Civil War, both sides today lay claim to American history.  Those that follow Donald Trump harken back to the patriots of the American Revolution just as much as those favoring Kamala Harris.  Both sides claim the flag and the trappings of American tradition and lore.  And one side will win out; at least in terms of the vote count in November.  

But it will take more than an election to consolidate a new foundation for the United States. We thought it was over in 2020, with the Pandemic election of Joe Biden.  But here we are again, four years later, caught in another alligator “death-roll” struggle to determine the American dream. These truly are, “The times that try men’s souls” – and women’s too.

He that Stands

A decade ago, there is no possible scenario that would put someone with the ideology of former Congressman Liz Cheney and I on the same side of a political argument.  Judge Luttig, the national “model” of a conservative jurist, would never have a spot on “my side” of the table.  Nicolle Wallace, was the Bush White House press secretary and senior advisor to Republican Presidential candidate John McCain. She supported those that I campaigned against.

They have all “stood up”, against their former political party and for what in their lifetime has been the “opposition”.  They all see Trumpism as such a threat, they are standing for Democrat Kamala Harris.  Trumpists derogatorily call them “RINOS” (Republicans in Name Only), and they all have paid a steep political price.  They have lost lifetime friends. But in these times, in this struggle to determine the American Dream, they stand against Trump.

But there are two individuals who recently joined the fray, that shocks the soul.  This morning Alberto Gonzalez, the Bush Attorney General who supported torture as a means of extracting information from terrorists, came out for the Democrat.  And, last weekend, the “Darth Vader” of the Republican Party; the man perhaps most responsible for the misdirected war in Iraq and the privatization of American intelligence gathering that led to the excesses of Abu Gharib, now supports Kamala Harris.  Former Vice President Dick Cheney, father of Liz and one of the pillars of the “old” Republican Party, is now on “our” side.

Bedfellows

In normal times I would have to consider:  if Dick Cheney, Alberto Gonzalez, and the rest are on the same side I’m on – am I on the “right” side?  There is politically almost nothing that we have in common, except, for a vision of a Trump America that ends our American Dream.  And that’s enough.

Shakespeare in The Tempest wrote: “(M)isery acquaints a man with strange bed-fellows.”   We Democrats awaken today in bed with – Dick Cheney!!   There could be no better proof that America is in an “existential struggle”, an “alligator deathroll”, for the nature of the American Dream.  It’s made many of us swallow hard to accept the alliance of these opponents of decades duration.  But, as Paine put it, “Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered”.  We need all the help we can get, whatever the source.

Alberto, Dick, welcome to bed.  It’d be nice if you could convince your friend George to climb in too, to join his good friend Michelle.  We all make “strange bedfellows”, but a powerful alliance against Trump.  Remember:  “The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”

Dawn Thirty

The dogs didn’t sleep well last night.  Atticus, our nervous Lab, whispered in my ear about 4:30am:  “Dad, there eating dogs”.  I rolled over – “No Att, they’re not eating dogs, that’s just a Twitter rumor.  Go back to sleep”.  Then, at 5:20am, Keelie, our motherly Australian shepherd, was barking:  “DAD, DAD, DAD; He said they’re eating cats AND dogs”.  So I got up, and went to calm her down.  “Keelie”, I said, “This is what happens when you listen to the Presidential debates.  It’s not real.”

By then four of the five dogs were up, all talking about someone, nearby, eating dogs.  (The youngest, CeCe, slept through the debate and the discussion). After all, the Republican candidate for President, the forty-fifth President of the United States said it was happening, just an hour away in Springfield.

Nightmares

When I was a kid, maybe three, I watched a Twilight Zone episode about large ants from space taking over the earth.  To this day, if I’m going to have a real nightmare, big ants the size of shoes are the protagonists.  But I didn’t think watching the debates last night with the dogs would scare them so badly.  There was no going back to sleep.  So I calmed them down, gave them breakfasts, and started writing.  Atticus was still so scared, he wouldn’t eat.  He’s lying right here, beside my chair, as I write this essay.  I even had to go outside with him in the pre-dawn darkness this morning – “they are eating dogs in Springfield!!!!”

They say that only the Super Bowl gets more viewers than the Presidential Debates.   The Biden debacle in June had over 50 million.  The numbers for last night aren’t out yet, but it’s likely that many more than that watched this one, the only scheduled Presidential debate in this current election cycle.   And for the 45^th President, Donald Trump, the line that everyone remembers is the same one that scared the dogs so badly; “They’re eating cats and dogs in Springfield”.  

Fact Check

First of all, according to Trump, “they” are “illegal” Haitian immigrants in Springfield.  “They” are in fact, not illegal, “they” are legal migrants settled in Springfield after escaping the disastrous conditions on their home island.  “They” speak Creole, and that’s causing some pressure on the Springfield Schools,  caught unprepared for Creole translators.  So there’s that.  But “they” aren’t eating Dogs, Cats, or the local geese in the city ponds.  In fact, Ohio Governor DeWine is increasing some services to the city for the new residents.  Dogs, cats and geese are safe. (In fact, the only one I know who is eating dogs, is Bobby Kennedy Jr, who recently endorsed Trump for President).

Ex-President Trump didn’t have a good night.  When Vice President Harris said that foreign leaders were concerned about another Trump Presidency, Trump searched for a  character reference that Americans would appreciate.  He chose Victor Orban, the Hungarian President who is working to end democracy in his own country.   And Trump yelled, a lot, as if yelling would make the “fake facts” he was spewing real. 

On Message

As for the Vice President, she was controlled, on message, and sharp.  She definitely goaded Trump into some of his more out-of-control moments and got the exact contrast she was looking for.  Harris wanted to show Trump as an agent of chaos, rumor, and craziness.  She wanted to remind Americans what the day-to-day life was like during Trump’s term, the constant fear of what the next bad thing would be.  And in contrast, she presented a plan for the future, with solid proposals for improving life in the middle class.  Her overall goal:  show a potential Presidency of hope and joy, or the dark return of Trump.  And that’s exactly the image Donald Trump gave her.

Can you criticize Kamala Harris?  Sure, she could have been more definitive in answering questions.  There is a clear answer to the “flip-flop” on fracking question:  the US is meeting our environmental goals enough that we can continue to frack.  But she chose not to go into those details, rather falling back on her “pat” and true answer:  “My values have not changed”.  But if she didn’t hit all the “facts” to the final point, she did achieve the “art” of this debate.  She made the contrast, and the choice, clear to the American people.

Trump tried to scare Americans with the dark and gloomy future he sees.  And there are problems; that’s why choosing a President is so important.  But Harris offered solutions, and hope, and even some joy in our future.  

All Trump did was scare the dogs.

Debate and the Nation

Tonight is “THE DEBATE”.  Vice President Kamala Harris will meet Ex-President Donald Trump on the stage in Philadelphia.  It’s on ABC without an audience, but in front of the Nation and the World.  How much can we expect?  In the end, we will remain a Nation divided. But, as they said in 1968 in Chicago, “The whole World is watching”.

We are a polarized Nation.  There are 45% of American voters who will support Donald Trump, and 45% of American voters who will support Kamala Harris.  That leaves 10% who are somehow undecided.  But the most important factor in this November election is which candidate can motivate their own voters to show up.  Of the 45% on both sides, there are “diehards”, maybe 35% MAGA supporters, and, now with Harris, about the same for her.  Who beyond the diehards shows up to vote; that will make all the difference.

Being divided over politics is nothing new.  What is new in America is the vitriol and fear connected with political positions this year.  For many diehards, it comes down to, “Choose my candidate or I hate you”.  And that’s new for the modern era.  In fact, you have to go back to the Civil War to find that kind of discord between supporters of one side or the other.  

Back in the “old days”, the 1970’s and 80’s, there were certainly issues that divided us.  The Vietnam War, school desegregation, the more extreme version of conservatism that Ronald Reagan represented, are all examples.  But, through most of those times, it didn’t pit neighbor against neighbor.  I could put a Carter/Mondale sign on the corner, my opponent could put a Ford/Dole sign, but somehow we still respected each other’s right to make the choice.  It doesn’t feel like that anymore.  

Curating the Divisions

Families are divided.  Conversations are carefully “curated”. (That’s the word of the month, everything is “curated” from restaurant menu items to bed frame upgrades).  There are times you can speak your “truth”, and times when a casual conversation could put you at risk.  The traditional American Thanksgiving or Christmas is now conflicted, some topics “verboten”.    

In 1976, I was on the Carter/Mondale staff.  Teachers had me into their classes to talk about campaigning. As a  twenty year-old college student with a “uniform” blue blazer and a American Bicentennial flag tie (still hanging in the closet), I didn’t pretend to be unbiased.  But that was allowed, back then.  Teachers let their students know that I was obviously biased, but a good source for what campaign “life” was about.  

Today, I don’t think that could happen.  Students would feel quite comfortable attacking “the other” side, either way.  Parents would be outraged.  Teachers would be questioned for inappropriate class materials, or political bias.   

So what happened in the 1980’s and 90’s that led to this change, from a time when we could mutually disagree without, as the saying goes, being disagreeable?  Who’s to blame for our current division, not just in politics, but in conversations?

I have an answer, but first, I need to give a “full disclosure” notice.  My father was the head of Multimedia Programs and Production.  He created and sold individual television shows across the country, a process called “syndication”.  His most famous show was “The Phil Donahue Show” (Phil passed away a couple of weeks ago, the end of an era for my family).  So I had more than a little exposure to some of what went on behind the scenes in syndication, and with some of the personnel behind those shows.

Rush

Remember that the late 1980’s was still an era before cable TV took hold.  Most of the programming America watched came “over the air” (no wires, you could watch TV for free – still can, though today it feels kind of like the rotary dial telephone – antique).  Instead of thousands of viewing or listening choices at any given time, there were only six or so channels to see.  So most Americans were familiar with most shows; we’d all at least “tried” them once.

There are two figures that I lay “the blame” for America’s path to being “disagreeable”.  The first is Rush Limbaugh.  Limbaugh was better known for his radio broadcasts, but he also had a TV show for a few years.  Rush brought a whole new style to conservative “talk show” radio/TV.  He would make a point, then attack any who argued against him as not only wrong, but stupid.  It was a machine gun spray against any other view than his own. He would never acknowledge even a single “point” by the other side.  Listening to Limbaugh, or trying to have a discussion with his adherents, was a completely different, frustrating, “take no prisoners” kind of political discussion.  It was frustrating because no one listened to your points, they simply moved onto to their next talking point.  Sound familiar?

There wasn’t a “give and take”, a debate of point and counter-point.  It was simply “give” it, and you either “took it” or something was wrong with you; your intelligence or your motivation.  Limbaugh (and to a lesser extent, Glen Beck) became the “model” for the new conservative movement.  It’s how “conservatives” learned to “fight” for their cause.  There’s a straight line from them to the Sean Hannity’s and Mark Levin’s and Steven Millers’ of today.

Jerry

The second figure was Jerry Springer (The Jerry Springer Show was one of Dad’s).  Jerry Springer was originally a politician out of Cincinnati, who became a Democrat and Mayor, then fell from grace in a sex-for-money scandal.  He recovered and returned to prominence.  After a failed Gubernatorial race, Springer turned to television (just downstairs from Dad’s office), first as a commentator, then a news anchor, and finally as a host of his own show.  The original idea was a Donahue kind of show, a talk show about serious political issues. 

But Springer found that the more outlandish he got, the higher the ratings were.  So the Jerry Springer show became synonymous with scandal: who’s your Daddy, I had sex with my step-mother, the man who was a girl, then couldn’t decide.  Jerry had “professional referees” on site, able to break up physical altercations between “guests”, and sometimes, the audience.  

But the real point was that the Springer Show blurred the lines between reality and “show”.  It was all presented as “truth”, but it wasn’t.  Americans suspended disbelief, because we were entertained by the craziness, shocked at the subject matter, and fascinated to see when the “conversation” would turn to physical blows (and who would win, the husband or the wife).  It was, to put it concisely, coarse; the worst view of what of America was.  And America loved it (and the company made a lot of money).  Jerry sat back, shook his head, and seemed “above” the fray.

Channeling

With Limbaugh and Springer, insults became common place, and reality became blurred.  It’s that “lineage” that brought us to “spectator” politics; the more outlandish, the better.  It all sounds like a Trump Rally, doesn’t it?  Trump tapped into all the tools, the derision, the open hatred, the breaking of every norm.  But he didn’t start it:  Rush and Jerry did, forty years ago.

So what about tonight’s debate?  Expect Trump will channel Limbaugh.  After all, as President, Trump awarded Rush the Presidential Medal of Freedom, “So much better than the Medal of Honor”.  And while Harris may try to be more “Donahue”, in all likelihood she’ll be “Springer”, shaking her head at the craziness of Trump World.  

A rational political debate is unlikely.  But, don’t worry, it will sure be a show.