Bad Week
Last Tuesday Democrats began their electoral comeback. The election results in many parts of the Nation, from New Jersey to California to Mississippi, were overwhelmingly in the Democrat’s favor. And Democrats were able to turn blame for the ongoing Government shutdown onto the Republicans. A majority of the Nation saw Republicans at fault, not only for the shutdown itself, but for the looming threat of increased insurance costs.
In effect, last week was a very bad week for Republicans, and for the President, maybe the “worst” week of the second Trump Presidency.
So, why did eight Democratic Senators flip last night, and join with Republicans to push a budget resolution forward; the beginning of the end of the shutdown? That in spite of their failure to get the sole demand they asked for: continued funding for the Affordable Care Act.
Back in the spring, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer allowed Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” to go to the floor for a Senate vote. Instead of using the filibuster to stop it, he depended on a few Republicans to “cross-over” and vote against the Bill, denying it a simple majority. It ultimately passed though, a tie in the Senate with Vice President Vance casting the tiebreaking vote.
Schumer took a great deal of “heat” for not requiring the filibuster, a sixty vote passing margin, and shutting down the Government. But, at the time, Schumer noted that a closed Government gave the President even more power to cut jobs and redistribute funding. He was unwilling to take that risk.
Shutdown
And that’s just what we’ve seen in this current shutdown. The Trump Administration continues to pay for their “priority” issues, including the payment of ICE officers. The US Military is getting paid as well. But many other areas that directly impact US citizens, including the Air Traffic Controllers and TSA agents, were required to work, without pay (they presumably will be paid back once the government reopens). Even more government employees were furloughed, with no guarantee of repayment, effectively unemployed. And then, Trump stepped in to prevent November SNAP benefits (the Food Stamp Program) from being distributed, even though the funds were available.
And that became the “Hobson’s Choice” for some Democrats in the Senate. As Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire bluntly put it: “Trump forced us to choose between sick kids and hungry kids”.
The Deal
The eight cross-overs (seven Democrats and Independent Angus King of Maine) did extract several concessions from the Republican majority. They include repayment for government officials required to work without pay, reinstatement of workers fired during the shutdown, and the end of further federal job cuts. It also guaranteed SNAP funding in the future.
But they didn’t get the Affordable Care Act funding. The Senators did get a promise of a vote on that funding, one that will force Republicans to go on the record for increased insurance costs (if they vote against). It won’t likely fix the insurance problem, but it will firmly fix the blame soaring costs.
The question is: did Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Or, did Chuck Schumer find a way out of what was going to be an impossible situation. SNAP benefits were not getting paid. People were facing real hunger. US transportation (particularly air) was snarled, delayed and cancelled with the holiday season coming. And millions of government employees were unpaid.
Is this another Democratic “failure”, or did Democrats get exactly what they wanted? We now have a clear choice of “who’s to blame” when it comes to rising insurance rates, unpaid government workers and even hungry kids.
The Tell
Schumer himself voted against the deal. But the “tell” is the vote of Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, the second most powerful Democratic Senator (the minority whip). Schumer is the “face” of the Democrats in the Senate. But Durbin holds the “whip hand”, the “muscle” of the Party. He provided the final vote, the eighth, to end the filibuster and begin to reopen the government. It’s likely that this was, in part, Schumer’s plan, even though two Senators from New Hampshire took the lead role.
So what happens next? The Government is NOT open. The Senate has NOT voted on the resolution to reopen it, and may not for a few days. The House of Representatives is NOT even in session. Speaker Johnson will need to call his Republican members back from their six week vacation (the Democrats never left). And the “deal” the Senate made hasn’t been confirmed by the whole Senate, or either the House or the President. So, until there’s an agreement between all three, nothing is certain.
Except for one thing. Whatever the fate of this deal, it has firmly set the stage for the 2026 election campaign: advantage Democrats. If the shutdown continued, it may have turned to a “pox on both your houses”.
Schumer may have snatched victory from the jaws of catastrophe. We’ll know in about a year.
