Biden
It was forever ago, actually about fourteen months. President Biden was in the throes of determining whether to run again or not. He had a lot going for him: an economy that was going up, inflation that was finally going down, and a series of laws passed that were almost universally approved. The problem: Biden completely failed in his June debate with Trump. He came out looking like everything the opposition claimed he was: old, tired, lost, perhaps even demented. And those around him, who knew best that wasn’t the case, were struggling to find a way out.
There’s nothing like a first impression (or a first re-introduction). And Biden’s performance played exactly into the hands of Trump. When Trump said, “I don’t know what he said, and I don’t think he even knows what he said”, Trump showed his tremendous instinct for the political “kill”. Even I agreed with him.
So there was a month of “what’s he going to do”. I even wrote an essay, stating that the Democratic Party had no choice but to follow Biden’s will, and double-down on his candidacy (Nailing It). But, it became clear that the leadership of the Party left Biden behind. He had to make the choice (Changing Horses).
Assassin’s View
In American history there is another, dark tradition. It’s political change at the end of a barrel; the immediate, unforeseeable consequence of the assassin’s bullet. On July 13, 2024, in Butler, Pennsylvania, an assassin tried to take Donald Trump’s life. There is much to say about that whole episode; the failures of the Secret Service, the incredible swiftness of the investigation, determination, and cremation of the assassin himself, the miraculous condition of the candidate for President. But it didn’t really matter.
It was political “magic”. Trump went from a defeated, indicted, convicted, former President, to an icon of strength. He fought his own protection agents to rise up and address the crowd, blood on his face, fist in the air, “Fight, Fight, Fight.” While some might question that Trump could be so heroic; the political imagery was undeniable.
Five Million Votes
In my view, the election was decided right there, in Butler. Current American elections are determined by one thing – turnout. The contrast was mighty: a seemingly befuddled Joe Biden and a heroic Trump. It probably didn’t change many voters, but it drove the Trump voters to the polls.
And that didn’t change much when Kamala Harris took the nomination. In the end, Trump didn’t defeat Harris. It was the millions of voters, particularly in the “swing” states, that left the Vice President high and dry, not coming to the polls. 155,500,000 votes were cast in 2020, versus 150,327,000 in 2024. That’s five million voters, who might and probably would have supported the Democrat, who stayed home. The election was decided for Trump, who won by a little over two million votes nationwide.
Martyr
An assassin struck again a couple of weeks ago, this time with deadly accuracy. Charlie Kirk, a darling of the MAGA-conservative movement, was struck down, on stage, in front of thousands of students. Kirk was memorialized yesterday, a martyr to the MAGA cause. Tens of thousands of admirers; the President and the Vice President, and almost every MAGA luminary was there to extoll his virtues and mourn his loss.
Even more importantly, Kirk combined both their political sentiments, and a form of Christian fundamentalism. That’s a powerful admixture of politics and religion, one that the United States hasn’t seen since the populism of Williams Jennings Bryan at the end of the 1800’s.
It really doesn’t matter if you agreed with Kirk’s views or not. The “politics” of his death will be a “known, unknown”, and perhaps a powerful force to be reckoned with in 2026 and beyond. How many new, young, adherents will be motivated by his death? How many of them will be “new voters”, altering the narrow balance of our electorate?
The nation is on the cusp of change. Any one factor could be the difference. History is replete with martyrs raised up to drive “the masses”. The impact of this tragic act of madness may well be more than just the loss of one individual.
That’s just one more “thing”, as we worry about the fate of American democracy.
