Take A Hint
Monday, after nearly six months of stalling, President Trump finally figured it out. All of his “pleasant and wonderful” conversations with Russia’s President Putin failed to move the needle on a Russian/Ukrainian ceasefire (earlier essay; Sir, May I Have Another). And, despite Trump’s obvious disdain for Ukrainian President Zelenskyy (earlier essay, Stratego or Risk), even Donald Trump got it. Every time he had his “pleasant” conversation with “dear old Vlad”, it was followed by cities in Ukraine being destroyed by missile and drone attacks. The “nicer” the conversation, the more severe the attack.
As the saying goes, “A girl can take a hint”. And finally, so did Trump. Monday the President arranged for highly advanced defensive weaponry to be quickly sent to Ukraine. For the first time, Trump seems, at least a little bit, to be willing to treat Ukraine as an “equal” party in the war, and in his efforts to effect a ceasefire.
Ukraine Needs
It’s a very, very, Trumpian kind of deal. He says he isn’t sending the weapons to Ukraine, but to the other NATO nations in Europe. And he’s not giving the weapons away, he expects full payment: good for the American defense industry. But everyone in this “game of telephone” knows who is on the other end. We sell Patriot Missile Systems to Germany, and the weapons will “skip the middle-man” and go straight to Ukraine. So the US is charging our own allies for supporting the Ukrainians against Russian aggression.
But it’s exactly what Zelenskyy needs. The Russian mass bombing campaign is brutal, targeting mostly civilians. And the war on the ground is stalemated: more of a World War I trench warfare situation (As retired Four-Star General Barry McCaffery said, another Battle of Verdun), than World War II’s more ranging tank battles. As things currently stand; Russia is ultimately the winner in a battle of attrition. That is, unless NATO, both the European members and the United States, continue to supply Ukraine with offensive weapons, and the means to stop Russian attacks on their cities.
Apple of Putin’s Eye
And that’s what the President of the United States is doing. Sure, US companies will make their “blood money” in the deal. And Trump gave Putin a fifty-day grace period to come to “the table”. After that, Trump promises sanctions designed to wreck the Russian economy, 100%
“tariffs” on Russian oil (one of the few things they have left to sell). What really happens in fifty days remains to be seen; after all, there have been tariff deadlines come and go for weeks, and little changed.
But it’s a start, a far cry from February. It seemed that Trump was negotiating FOR the Russians at that time, and with little interest in the invaded nation. Except, of course, for Ukraine’s “rare earth” products. Trump wanted ALL of them.
And for the rest of NATO, it’s a big sigh of relief. Their greatest threat is an aggressive Russia, pressing borders and demanding concessions. Trump said that Ukraine is the “apple of Putin’s eye”, but the rest of the former Soviet Union can’t be too far behind. Moldova, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia would be next, with Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe not far behind. If Putin is willing to start another large-scale European War, the NATO allies would much rather fight it in Ukraine, than on the beaches, streets, fields and hills of their own countries.
Meat Grinder
Putin’s war with Ukraine just got harder. Trump, a proven admirer of the Russian dictator, is more than willing to give him all of the “normalcy” he wants: a place at the table in the world economy, a market for Russian oil and gas, an opportunity to take Russia out of the economic stranglehold the war with Ukraine has put them in. And, of course, the chance to get out of the bloody meat grinder of Ukraine, already estimated to cost 250,000 dead and another 750,000 wounded Russian soldiers (CNN).
So it all comes down to what Putin really wants. He can have a “normal” economy, with “normal” trade and a “normal” life for most regular Russians. Or he can continue to wage this war of conquest, with the specter of World War III lurking in the background. And his nation will remain an economic pariah, cut off from most of the normal intercourse with the rest of the world.
We will soon see if Putin is the cold decision-making KGB Colonel we all have heard about, or if he is next Czar of a Russian Empire we all fear. Will he give up his dream of a new “Soviet Union”, for the good of the world, and the Russian people he has fed into the meat grinder of East Ukraine? Or, now with the US grudgingly picking up its share of the fight, will Putin make the cold decision to do what’s right for his own people, and the world, and come to the table?
It’s the Colonel’s call.
