Battle for Ukraine

World War II

The battle in Ukraine goes on. But it’s not the trench warfare we’ve heard about that’s so reminiscent of World War I.  It’s more like World War II, with battle lines separated by fields of anti-personnel mines (Foreign Policy).  For the Ukrainian forces to advance against the Russians, they need to first to clear the terrain of millions of mines.  Ukrainian forces are doing so carefully, preserving the lives of their sappers.  They even have “underwater” sappers, clearing the streams where their forces may need to cross and fight.  

All of the mobility created by NATO tanks and armored personnel carriers can’t begin until those mines are cleared.  Even though a M-1 Abrams tank is unharmed by anti-personnel mines, the infantry following behind would still be at risk.  Even an anti-tank mine usually doesn’t destroy that vehicle, though it often disables it for a time as the tracks are broken.  But the scope and scale of mining operations is amazing:  over 67,000 square miles of Ukraine is the battlefield (Washington Post) and mined, with at least thirteen types of anti-personnel mines and at least thirteen more types of anti-vehicle mines (Human Rights Watch).

Butcher’s Bill

So for those decrying the “failure” of the Ukrainian summer offensive, a couple of things to consider.  It’s not over.  The Ukrainian Army has carefully removing the mines, before they sent their precious soldiers across to face the Russian forces.  That sounds like a prudent strategy, especially for a Nation with limited personnel resources, and already high casualties. Russian casualties are near 300,000; including 120,000 killed and 180,000 wounded.  Ukraine has far fewer, with 70,000 killed and 120,000 wounded.  But Ukraine has far fewer people to fill their battalions (New York Times). 

In the past three months, Ukrainian forces have made small gains, particularly along the southeastern front. It’s taken that long to create a “salient”, a bulge into the Russian line around the village of Robotyne (now destroyed), that Ukrainian forces hope to exploit.  Their goal is to “breakout” of the salient, and drive to the coast of the Sea of Azov.  That would cut the Russian forces in two, with those in the Crimea and Kherson regions split off from direct supply from Russia in the north and east (NYT).  

Winter Comes Early

It hasn’t happened yet.  It’s taking time and the clock is ticking.  Winter comes early and hard in Ukraine, where the “southern coast” is the same latitude as Bismarck, North Dakota.   And it doesn’t help that there are delays in the mobile armor Ukraine needs from Poland, and the United States.  Of the 190 US Bradley Fighting Vehicles promised, more than half are already on the battlefield  (Washington Post).  But it takes supply to “feed” a breakout.

Historically, the best analogy might be the months after the Normandy Invasion, D-Day, in World War II.  After successfully getting off the beaches on June 6th, 1944, Allied forces took nearly three months to breakout of  “hedge row” country, and complete the conquest of Normandy.  They then raced to the German border, arriving in November.

Stalemate not Settlement

The goal is similar for the Ukrainian offensive today:  breakout and race to the coast.  It hasn’t happened yet – but it’s still possible.

For those in America who say it’s time for a “settlement”, to end the battle – they are premature.  And for those who decry “it’s time to save lives”; it’s not their lives to save.  Ukraine has an opportunity for victory.  Victory means an end to a struggle against Russia that’s lasted nine years – since Russia stole the eastern and southern provinces in 2014.  “Settlement” means stalemate, with Russia troops still in parts of Ukraine, and a battle and war simmering for more years and even decades.

It’s not just about Ukrainian military success.  It’s about ending the conflict with a resolution, rather than a compromise.  Should the current Ukrainian offensive succeed, then Russian forces will be in an untenable position.  They will be forced to withdraw.  And should the offensive stop, then Russia will be always poised to reignite the conflict, whenever the whim strikes Putin to re-establish the Soviet Union.

Who He Is

Maya Angelou said, “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”.  Vladimir Putin has shown us who he is:  a ruthless killer, willing to kidnap a whole generation of Ukrainian children to turn them into Russian soldiers; willing to face the economic wrath of the world so he can rebuild the Soviet Empire.  

Or to misquote George W Bush:  we can look into Putin’s eyes and see his soul.  And his soul is the soul of Stalin.  If Ukraine is captured, why would he stop?  Poland is next, along with the Baltic Nations; all NATO members, all requiring direct US military intervention.

Ukraine is paying the price for the whole Western World right now, the price of resistance to Putin’s aggression.  The least we can do is help foot the bill, even when it gets tough, and even when it gets expensive.  Our treasure in exchange for their blood.  It’s better than the alternative.

Ukraine Crisis

Author: Marty Dahlman

I'm Marty Dahlman. After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! I've also spent a lot of time in politics, working campaigns from local school elections to Presidential campaigns.