Marking Territory

Crimea

The Black Sea is a hotbed of military activity today.  It is “Russia’s inland sea”, mostly controlled by the Russian Navy sailing forth from their only ice-free base of Sevastopol in Crimea.  If you wonder why Crimea, the southern peninsula that is part of the Ukraine, is so important to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the base at Sevastopol is the answer. The Russians first built there in 1772.  The famous Tennyson poem the “Charge of the Light Brigade” (“Half a league, half a league, half a league onward, all in the Valley of Death…”) was about a British attack to control the port in 1854.  They failed.

So while it may be realistic for President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to talk about reuniting his invaded nation, it’s truly unlikely that Crimea will be a part of that union.  Before the first Russian invasion in 2014, the base at Sevastopol was a Russian sector within Ukraine (kind of like the US base at Guantanamo in Cuba).  The land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine is very narrow, just a couple of miles, and incredibly well defended.  Russia is just not likely to give it up.

Bosporus

Regardless, outside the territorial waters twelve miles beyond national borders, the Black Sea remains international territory.  That includes not only the waters, but the airspace above the waves.  

Access to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean is through the narrow straits that divide Europe and Asia at Istanbul, Turkey.  The Bosporus looks more like a big river, perhaps the Mississippi, rather than the connection between two seas and continents.  And it runs through the heart of the city.  Turkey controls access to the Black Sea, particularly military access.  So while the Russian fleet dominates the Black Sea, they can’t necessarily get out to the rest of the world.  And the rest of the world can’t get to them without Turkish permission.

Gathering Intel

The United States does not have any warships in the Black Sea at this time.  But we do have intelligence gathering aircraft flying overhead, keeping track of Russian activity both in Crimea and along the battlelines of Ukraine beyond the horizon.  That intelligence in part goes to the Ukrainian forces, and is a continual irritant to Russian forces.  So it shouldn’t be a surprise that Russia doesn’t like it.

When I think of drones, I think of my neighbor getting overhead shots of our houses, or really cool race videos from the cross country meet.  But the American intelligence drone, the MQ9 Reaper, is a rear-propeller driven aircraft, 36’ long with a 70’ wingspan.  It is fully capable of carrying weapons; designated a “hunter/killer”.   The drone also has a large array of intelligence gathering instruments.  It is directed by a remote operator in real-time through satellite links, and flies much like any other aircraft.  It costs $32 million apiece, and the US has over 300 of them.

Pissing in Corners

Yesterday, the two Russian fighter aircraft started “messing” with an MQ 9 Reaper over the Black Sea.  At first, they did high-speed maneuvers around the slower propeller driven aircraft. They literally “pissed” on the drone; dumping aerosolized fuel in its path.  Then finally, one of the SU-27 fighters approached the drone from the rear and hit the propeller.  The drone fell into the Black Sea, but not before all of the intelligence data and programming was erased in an emergency “dump”.   The SU-27’s, including the one that collided with the drone, were able to land in Crimea.

The Russians state that the drone was in Russian claimed airspace.  The United States, with full video evidence of the Russian actions, say that the fighter pilots were unprofessional and basically “cowboying” around the drone.   But it’s unlikely that they were “cowboying” without permission from their superiors, and the US has lodged full diplomatic complaints with the Russian foreign ministries. 

The US and NATO have avoided this direct interaction since the Russian invasion began over a year ago.  And the US downplayed this incident by putting it fully in the diplomatic field rather than triggering a military escalation. After all, it’s “only a drone”, albeit a $32 million one.  If there was a pilot, it would have been a very different story.  The Russians know that as well.

Consequences

This is a serious “game”, for the Russians, for NATO, and for the United States.  Like similar incidents with Chinese aircraft over the South China Sea, the US is declaring the right to transit international waters both by sea and by air.  It all comes down to the actions of the men who are piloting the planes, in the cockpit, or remotely from some obscure base back in the United States.  Either way, it’s not just about the cost of the aircraft – it’s about the risk of escalation, reminiscent of the Cold War over Europe.  All sides have to recognize that danger, or mistakes will happen.  

I know the type of pilots the United States has, not only in the cockpits, but on the remote controls.  I know they are highly trained, incredibly competent, and well aware of the consequences of their actions.  But who knows the Russian (or Chinese) pilots, or  the intent of their commanders.

And that’s dangerous.

Ukraine Crisis

Author: Marty Dahlman

I'm Marty Dahlman. After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! I've also spent a lot of time in politics, working campaigns from local school elections to Presidential campaigns.

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