26 Days

Victory Day

On the 9th of May, 1945, German General Dietrick Von Saucken’s Second Army surrendered to  Soviet forces, ending the month long battle for Berlin, and World War II in Europe.  Almost 200,000 soldiers died in the battle, with at least 20,000 civilian deaths as well (though accurate civilian numbers were impossible to know).  It was the triumph of Soviet military power over the Nazis, the final “comeback” from the defeats of 1941 and ’42, when Nazi troops stood at the gates of Moscow.

May 9th is celebrated today in Russia simply as “Victory Day”.  Originally it was the victory of Communism over Nazism, now the victory of Russia over the German fascist regime.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin is acutely aware of the symbolism of “Victory Day”.  It’s why Russian propaganda about the current Ukraine invasion claims that Russian troops are trying to “cleanse Ukraine of Fascists”.  When Russian troops knocked on civilian doors on Bucha, they demanded to know where the “Nazis” were.  Many Ukrainian civilians were executed for being “Nazis”. 

It’s what motivated Russia’s conscript Army, living up to their great-grandfather’s stories of The Great War against the Nazis.  Those soldiers thought that’s what the invasion of Ukraine was all about. And it’s why there’s a current moral issue in the Russian Army has now.  The soldiers discovered that the Ukrainians weren’t “Nazis” at all, but more like their friends and neighbors back at home.  Instead of heroes rescuing Ukrainians from fascists, they realized that they are invaders.

Deadline for Victory

But the “Victory Day” story is still the one that Russians are seeing on their media.  Gaining “victory” by May 9th is the unwritten deadline Putin has set for his military commanders.  But since the Ukrainians stopped the “blitzkrieg” offensive to Kyiv, and shown that there will be a stubborn defense of every inch of Ukrainian soil, what “victory” means to Putin has changed.

He cannot conquer Ukraine.  So he must find an alternative “victory” to give the Russian people, and he’s got twenty-six days to do it.

The Russians are maneuvering to support a new strategy:  to break away the eastern regions of Ukraine to become a separate country, beholden to Russia.  And he’s made it clear that he will conquer the region regardless of the cost to the Ukrainian people.  Look at the city of Mariupol, now leveled, with tens of thousands of civilian casualties.  It is what Putin wants every Ukrainian to see, surrender, or face total destruction if they stand against the Russian forces.

Re-Arming

But Ukraine is clear – there will be no surrender, anywhere in the country.  And as the Russians regroup, the Ukrainians are rearming.  The United States and NATO are getting more sophisticated weapons to the Ukrainian Army.  It’s a complex dilemma for the United States; the Ukrainian Army is essentially equipped with Soviet era weaponry.  The US cannot just supply them with American complex armament, the Ukrainian don’t know how to use it.  So the US is finding older Russian and Soviet weapons, from other former countries under Soviet control, to move quickly into Ukrainian hands.  

That is, by the way, why there was such a controversy over the Polish MiG 29’s that were offered several weeks ago.  Ukrainian pilots can’t just switch over to US planes, they are trained on MiG’s.  But the Poles were unwilling to risk directly transferring the planes and risk further Russian ire.  They wanted to gives the MiG’s to the US Air Force at Ramstein AFB, to then be given to the Ukrainians.  But the US didn’t want to be the intermediary, and so the deal fell apart.

Putin’s Choice

Vladimir Putin has one choice for victory in Ukraine now, a scorched-earth policy of civilian destruction.  He’s brought in a new commanding General,  Alexander Dvornikov, known as the “butcher” of Aleppo and Grozny for his brutal battle tactics without regard for civilian casualties.  He’s moved his armies away from Kyiv and the northern borders, to an all-or-nothing attack along the east and south.

And Ukraine is rushing to move their troops to counter the Russian shift, and to re-arm them with the weaponry pouring in across the borders from the West.  US drone weapons, anti-tank missiles, and even Russian made helicopters are headed into battle.  Both sides recognize:  whatever is going to happen, it’s happening in the next twenty-six days.  Putin’s personal deadline is near.

Essays on the Invasion of Ukraine

• Victory Day – 4/14/22
• Chapter Two – 4/11/22
• Zelenskyy’s Choice – 3/31/22
• The Gaffe – 3/28/22
• Putin’s Choice – 3/27/22
• Far Away From the Front – 3/20/22
• The Next Step – 3/17/22
• Thinking the Unthinkable – 3/14/22
• Russian Oil – 3/11/22
• Kyiv’s Choice – 3/8/22
• The Logic of Madness – 3/7/22
• Lights Out – 3/6/22
• Ante Up – 3/3/22
• State of the Union  3/2/22
• The Guns of March 3/1/22
• Sanctions 2/26/22
• What Happens Next 2/24/22
• The Games Begin  2/22/22
• Talking with a Friend 2/18/22
• Trip Wire 2/2/22
• On the Brink 1/23/22
• The Ukrainian Dilemma 12/5/19