Zelenskyy’s Choice

Stalemate

Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t said a word.  But his Deputy Defense Minister re-wrote the history of their ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine.  He claimed that the Russian attacks were simply to preserve the “independent” sovereignty of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region, allowing them to break away.  It’s not where this invasion started, but it is a “fig-leaf” to cover the naked aggression of Putin, and more importantly, the abject failure of the “mighty” Russian Army to defeat the Ukrainians.  

So the Ukraine War has reached a bloody stalemate.  Russia is unable to capture Kyiv, or Kharkiv, or even Mariupol.  Their encircling movements are stymied by Ukrainian forces, and by Ukrainian civilians who simply won’t quit.  But those same civilians are bearing the brunt of the attack now.  Since the Russians can’t take the cities, they are sitting back and blowing the Hell out of them.  Stores, apartment blocks, neighborhoods, theatres, schools and hospitals are all “fair game” for the Russian artillery, missiles, and bombs.   

Negotiations

Ukrainian and Russian representatives are sitting across the table from each other in Istanbul.  President Erdogan of Turkey is hosting the talks, aimed at reaching some sort of agreement to end the bloodshed.  But there’s nothing collegial about the discussions.  The Russians and Ukrainians won’t shake hands, and the Ukrainians have been warned not to eat or drink or even touch the tables.  The fear of Russian poisoning is that strong.

And there’s a real possibility that the negotiations are just another Putin “fig leaf”, covering a needed regrouping and resupply of Russian columns.  Give it a few weeks, and a reinvigorated Russian Army may once again begin marching towards the city centers.  Maneuvering heavy equipment in the verdant fields of Ukraine in the spring mud has trapped too many armies of the past.  Time may be on Russia’s side.

 The Ukrainians are well aware of that possibility.  They too are regrouping and resupplying, trying to get as much military materiel from the NATO nations as possible in preparation for a second Russian offensive, especially as spring ends and the fields dry out.  

What Deal

Frankly, the less likely scenario is that the Russians are really at the table to negotiate, and that the Deputy Defense Minister is actually speaking for Vladimir Putin himself. But it’s possible. Perhaps Putin is looking for the “exit ramp” from his “adventure” in Ukraine, a way to staunch the Russian bleeding and death.  And more significantly for Putin, a way to maintain the sale of Russian natural gas and oil products to Europe, the last financial lifeline left for the Russian economy.

But if Russia is really looking to end the war, what would they be willing to take to declare victory and get out?  And just as importantly, after the amazing and gallant defense of his country, what is President Zelenskyy of Ukraine will to give?

The loss of Ukrainian provinces in the Donbas region, and the Russian “unification” of the Black Sea coastline (they already control most of it); with a Ukrainian promise not to join NATO, is likely the Russian “starting” position.  Essentially, it says to Zelenskyy:  give Russians what they already have, and promise not to make an alliance to defend yourself from them again.  Then the Russian forces will withdraw from the other parts of Ukraine.

What Ukraine Earned

It’s not a good result from an amazing Ukrainian defense.  But the internal pressure on President Zelenskyy must be intense.  Millions of Ukrainian citizens have fled the country.  Millions more are in the crosshairs of Russian weaponry.  More than a hundred thousand are trapped in Mariupol, starving in the basements and bomb shelters, with no way out of the destruction.  

So maybe Zelenskyy responds with an agreement not to join NATO, but retaining the ability to sign mutual defense pacts with the United States or Germany.  Ukraine may seek the economic protection of the European Union rather than the military defense of NATO.  And maybe there’s some arrangement for “autonomy” of the Donbas, short of independence.  Perhaps even some Russian reparations for the damage done in the cities.  After all, the Russian ruble is hardly worth the paper it’s printed on, there’s plenty to give away.

It’s not likely that any of this is important.  Odds are, Putin is simply buying some time to regroup.  His political position may depend on total victory in Ukraine, regardless of the cost in Russian blood and treasure.  But, if Putin is looking for the “off ramp”, it is really Zelenskyy’s choice what happens next.

Essays on the War in Ukraine

Author: Marty Dahlman

I'm Marty Dahlman. After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! I've also spent a lot of time in politics, working campaigns from local school elections to Presidential campaigns.

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