The Next Step

David and Goliath

Ukraine is fighting a “David versus Goliath” battle against the second biggest military power in the world – Russia.  What the Russians, and the world, thought would be a surgical dissection of Ukraine, ending in the quick fall of Kyiv and the death or exile of President Zelenskyy, failed to occur.  Instead, the Ukrainians are fighting for every inch, and forcing Russia back into their “old” playbook from Afghanistan and Chechnya and Syria: destroy everything so there is nothing left to defend.

President Zelenskyy is speaking to many of the liberal democracies of the world – live from his office (or bomb shelter) in Kyiv.  He spoke, clad in a khaki t-shirt, to the United Kingdom’s and Canada’s Parliaments, the General Assembly of the European Union and the United Nations, and yesterday, to the Congress of the United States.  In each speech, he has picked a point of that group’s history and compared Ukraine’s battles to their own.  The speeches themselves are important, but what is more significant is that they provide “proof of life”, of Zelenskyy,  of the Ukrainian government, and Ukrainian resistance.

Anaconda Plan

The United States continues to ratchet up economic sanctions against Russia.  The Russian banks can’t participate in the world, the Russian stock market remains closed, even the Russian oligarchs are finding their luxury homes and yachts seized.  But it’s all in-direct action.  We are providing pain try to influence Russian plans.  But that pain is nothing compared to the pain Ukraine is inflicting.  Estimates are that as many as ten thousand Russian troops are dead.  

Ukraine is paying the heaviest price.  Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are also dead, as well as many thousands of Ukrainian citizens, some caught in the crossfire, but many more intentionally targeted by the Russian military.  That is the new “Russian Strategy”:  we will destroy your cities and your people until you can bear the cost no longer.

The Ukrainian city of Mariupol is being leveled.  400,000 civilians remain in the battle zone.  It’s not a Russian mistake or strategic necessity.  It is the price they are making Ukrainians pay for daring to defend their own country.

The world sanctions against Russia will ultimately destroy their economy.  But it’s a slow process, an “Anaconda” plan of gradually choking out economic life.  Economic sanctions cannot keep pace with the horror occurring on the ground.  The demands by the free citizens of the world are growing; more needs to be done.

What Weapons

The United States is rounding up weaponry from around the world to slip to the Ukrainian military. It’s not simple.  The Ukrainian Army is a mix of “NATO” style and Russian weaponry.  It’s no good to give them weapons they are unable to use.  But the US is directly giving them “simple” high tech weapons, the Switchblade armed drone that looks like a toy but can loiter over a target, and then explode on it like a bomb.  

President Zelenskyy is asking for a NATO “no-fly” zone, clearing the skies of all aircraft over Ukraine.  He believes his army can hold its own, IF, he can control the skies.  But that tactic would cause a direct confrontation between NATO (US) and Russian warfighters, a major step towards World War III.  That final step is still one to avoid.  But Zelenskyy, and the Polish government, has offered an intermediate step that we should do – now.

Ukraine’s No-Fly Zone

Give Zelenskyy the tools to create his own “no-fly zone”.  If the Ukrainians need fighter jets, then we should give them fighter jets.  The Poles have the fighters that Ukraine needs, MiG 29’s and 27’s; fighters that the Ukrainian Air Force knows how to fly.  Poland has already offered those fighters up, but the “deal” was nixed by the strategists in the US Pentagon.  Their fear was that it was a NATO escalation that could trigger a Russian attack into a NATO nation – World War III.

That might have been a good call two weeks ago, but it hasn’t “aged” well.  Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he will use the most egregious tactics against non-combatants in Ukraine.  We, to this point, have given him free rein to do so.  NATO and the US must find a way to raise the stakes again, beyond slow economic strangulation.  

So what does that all mean?  Poland will transfer the fighters to a US base in Germany.  Ukrainian pilots will slip out of Ukraine and accept the planes there.  Here’s the rub:  US forces will arm the planes, loading the missiles and other weapons, for their flight back to Ukrainian airbases.  Without the arms, then the whole exercise is a waste of time, and a death sentence to the Ukrainian planes and pilots.  It is inevitable that Russian air  defense forces will try to interdict the Ukrainian fighters along the way in.

Essentially then, the US base in Germany will be the launch site for forces used against the Russian Air Force.  That’s the Pentagon’s concern – and escalation towards direct conflict.  What if the Russians respond by a missile attack on the US Air Base?  

Putin’s Choice

If Putin intends to start World War III, he’s going to do it.  If his invasion of Ukraine was a “test” to see how far NATO would go in response, he’s got his answer.  The real question is – either he’s a “rational” actor, unwilling to start a World War he cannot win, or he’s not.  If he’s not rational, then World War III is probably inevitable.  If he’s rational, he won’t cross the line of a direct attack on NATO.  Either way, that’s out of our control.

What we can control, is our response to the ultimate sacrifice that Ukrainians are making.  It’s time to take the next step. The world demands it, and Ukraine has earned it.  Send them the MiG’s.

Ukraine Crisis

Author: Marty Dahlman

I'm Marty Dahlman. After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! I've also spent a lot of time in politics, working campaigns from local school elections to Presidential campaigns.