Homeward Through the Haze

Homeward Through the Haze*

*Thanks to David Crosby for the title – here’s the song

The President of the United States, echoed by his supporters and many of my more conservative friends, consistently claims “no collusion with Rush-sha” and “no evidence of collusion.” It is the current main attack on the Mueller investigation; that with all thirty-four of their indictments, they haven’t established “collusion,” or in a more legally correct way, they haven’t demonstrated the legal elements  of conspiracy. Even with four members of the Trump campaign convicted for offenses, the outline of conspiracy is still shrouded in the haze of the ongoing investigation.

Conspiracy is the legal “crime” underlying the laymen’s term of collusion. Conspiracy consists of:

An agreement between two or more people to commit an illegal act, along with an intent to achieve the agreement’s goal.  Most U.S. jurisdictions also require an overt act toward furthering the agreement.  An overt act is a statutory requirement, not a constitutional one. See Whitfield v. United States, 453 U.S. 209 (2005). The illegal act is the conspiracy’s “target offense.”

Conspiracy generally carries a penalty on its own.  In addition, conspiracies allow for derivative liability where conspirators can also be punished for the illegal acts carried out by other members, even if they were not directly involved.  Thus, where one or more members of the conspiracy committed illegal acts to further the conspiracy’s goals, all members of the conspiracy may be held accountable for those acts.  (Cornell Law Library)

What is now emerging from the public reporting and the indictments are three areas where the Mueller team may have found the elements of an illegal conspiracy.  To look at those, we first have to understand the possible “goals” of the illegal agreement. 

From the Trump side there are three possible goals.  The first, as we now know, was the desire of the Trump Organization to build Trump Tower Moscow.  It was “played off” by the Trump’s as a deal that never was more than a dream, but we know now from Michael Cohen’s testimony that they were continuing to pursue the Moscow deal up until the November general election of 2016.  The deal even went so far as an offer to Vladimir Putin for a penthouse suite.

The second area of Russian cooperation was in securing Trump financing over the past several years.  We know that the Trump Organization was unable to get loans from US banks after the failure of the New Jersey Casinos in the 1990’s.  Yet Trump was able to get financing from European banks, particularly Germany’s Deutsche Bank, even after he sued that bank for billions to avoid making a $40 million dollar payment that was due.  We also know that Deutsche Bank has acted as a “money launderer” for the Russian oligarchs surrounding Vladimir Putin.

And the third Trump goal was to win the Presidency, with Russian help.  The use of emails stolen by Russian Intelligence from the Democratic National Committee; “laundered” through the Wikileaks website, clearly benefited the Trump candidacy.  The essential “middleman” between Wikileaks acting as a Russian agent and the campaign is potentially Roger Stone.  In addition, Russian social media strategy was carefully targeted, and we recently found out that some of that targeting information came from the campaign itself through Paul Manafort.  There are also Russian contacts to Cambridge Analytica, the Mercer funded political analytics firm hired by the Trump Campaign, with future Trump Campaign Chairman Steve Bannon as Vice President.

Bannon, Manafort, Stone, Mercer:  all had powerful connections to the Trump Campaign (Mercer and his daughter essentially provided the leadership of the campaign, Bannon and Conway, for the general election.)  And, all seem to have some connection to Russia.

And what would the “quid pro quo” be for the Russians, what would they get in return for all of this aid to the Trump Organization and campaign?  We know that Manafort was in contact with “associate” Konstantin Kiliminick (also indicted by Mueller.)  Kiliminick claimed to be a part of Russian military intelligence (GRU) and worked with Manafort in support of the Russian backed President of Ukraine.  They continued to communicate throughout the Trump Campaign, on into the beginning of the Trump Presidency, and even after Manafort was under indictment.  

Part of their discussions involved a Russian backed peace deal with the Ukraine, one that would advantage the Russians.  US influence directed by the Trump Presidency would be extremely helpful to the Russians, as the US in the past was a strong advocate for the anti-Russian Ukrainian government.

The second benefit, and an ultimate goal of Russian policy towards the United States, was the lifting of sanctions placed on Russian individuals and banks.  Sanctions prevented Russian oligarchs from investing in US companies, and made it difficult for them to move their money out of a more volatile Russia into safer US banks.  It also prevented Russian banks from investing in US companies, reducing their influence in American affairs.  Recently the US Treasury Department reduced sanctions on one Russian oligarch close to Trump campaign members, Oleg Deripaska.

And the third, and perhaps most concerning benefit is the impact of US policy on world alliances.  President Trump supported Brexit, encouraging the dis-union of Europe.  He has consistently threatened the stability of NATO, and even suggested we might withdraw from the organization.  And he is pursuing a tariff policy that is hostile to “friends,” shaking long-time traditional alliances.  A disunited world places Russia at a greater advantage. Though small economically (11^thworldwide by GDP,) modern Russia still has the second most powerful military force.  A divided west makes Russia relatively more powerful.

It’s still hazy.  The information isn’t yet in the clear legal form of court, and it may not ever get to that stage.  The Congress may be forced to deal with a lot of connections, but no “smoking gun.” But we now have a better idea what the Trump organization and the Russians had to gain in cooperation, and we can see the outlines of conspiracy.  And it answers a nagging question we’ve had since the beginning of the Trump Administration: Flynn, Kushner, Papadoupolos, Cohen, Stone, Manafort, Don Jr, and Donald Trump the President; why did they all lie to the American people and perhaps to Congress and the Special Counsel?  

The investigation is coming home, homeward through the haze.