“Where Oh Where, Is Congress tonight? Why did you leave us here all alone? I’ve searched the world over looking for Government, but you’re dodging problems, so ‘poof’ you is gone.” Borrowed from Ronnie Milsap and the TV show Hee Haw, – 1977.
The Speaker
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has a dilemma. He can stay in Washington, refusing to negotiate with Democrats and look helpless at the government closure. Or he can send his GOP majority home, so the Democrats don’t have anyone to talk to (and his own majority party won’t pressure the Speaker to actually do something). It’s Fall Break for the MAGA members, as their Republican boycott of the House is on its fifth week. No undergrad ever had it so good.
The Speaker of the House is second in line to be President, right after the Vice President. When Nancy Pelosi held the gavel, she was the most powerful woman in the Nation, able to run her slim majority with an iron hand in a velvet glove. Many would argue that she was so powerful that she brought down her own President, Joe Biden, only weeks before the Democratic Convention in 2024. Pelosi, like her or not, was a giant; diminutive Johnson, not so much.
Johnson deeply understands that he holds his job at the whim of Donald Trump. As long as he toes the Trump line, the President remains in support. But should Johnson actually try to do something outside of Trump’s dominion, he could go the way of other “former” Republicans leaders like Kevin McCarthy. As the Washington saying goes: it will be time to go “write your book”.
What Trump Wants
So what does Trump want? It’s pretty simple, actually: to be unfettered by Congressional controls. Biden struggled to pass legislation, to make deals with “the other side” to get things done. There’s a list: the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the American Rescue Plan, and the Infrastructure Act. Trump chooses to govern by executive order. He wanted his “Big, Beautiful Bill”(BBB), essentially a massive tax cut for the rich, and was able to bully even the fiscal conservatives in the Republican Party who ultimately fell in line. It’s all he wanted from Congress, and now that he’s got it, they can remain on “break”.
The Democrats are still fighting the battle of the “Big, Beautiful Bill”, now through the “enabling legislation”, the budget. They have found the “soft spot” in the Republican plan. In the next three weeks, health insurance renewal notices will go out nationwide. And with the funding cuts of the BBB, those bills are going to be a lot higher.
Trump was elected by the post-Covid inflation. He was able to argue that it was “Biden’s fault” (and Harris’s fault too) that prices went so high. But now, Trump “owns” high prices. Today, a 16 ounce Ribeye at the local Kroger’s cost $21.99. Gas prices still hover around $3.00/gallon. But if health insurance costs go up dramatically, a lot more Americans are going to “know the pain”.
Does Trump care: probably not. He doesn’t have to run for election again. (OK, there’s the whole “third term” thing, but if he’s going to ignore the Constitution, then clearly finding enough votes to win won’t be the problem). But all those vacationing Republican members of Congress do. And the pressure is growing on them to come on back to DC, and work out a deal.
Excuses
You can hear it in Johnson’s excuses. First it was all about “health care for illegals”. After that was disproved, then it was all about “health care for folks who don’t work”. Now that’s kind of disappearing as well. This week their tactic is; “Democrats made the Affordable Care Act, and it was never affordable. Now Republicans have to fix it”. They’ve been trying to “fix” the ACA since 2012, with no success. (Facts are: Democrats made the Affordable Care Act with multiple sources of funding, which Republicans and the Republican Supreme Court consistently cut).
But the political pressure of those insurance bills is unrelenting. John Thune, the Republican Senate Majority Leader, is now hinting that it’s time to “negotiate” with Democrats. It’s really a simple deal: it takes sixty votes to get the budget through the Senate. All fifty-three Republicans voting leaves them seven votes short. Three Senators, two Democrats and an Independent have “crossed over”, leaving Republicans still in need of four votes.
Momentum
The original “demand” was that the Democrats “have to vote” for the budget to re-open the Government. But the onus is on the majority to find the requisite votes. It’s what politics is all about, making a deal. And even if the Senate reaches a compromise (likely to happen), then the House would have to agree (not so likely). But the biggest problem is that neither Thune nor Johnson are free to negotiate, without the permission of Donald Trump.
It’s October 20th. The shutdown began on October 1st. There’s major economic ramifications of a massive Federal workforce not getting paid, and most not even able to continue doing their jobs. The United States is like a big oceangoing passenger ship. It can coast for a long time without engines, simply on momentum. But it will gradually slow to a stop, and so will the American government, with huge economic impact. And meanwhile, the Republican members of Congress hide out at home, and the American people dread going to the mailbox.
That insurance bill is going to hurt, and vacationing GOP Congressmen and Senators are likely to feel the pain.
