Credit
Credit where credit is due. If the “Twenty Point” Plan of the Trump Administration comes to fruition and the current War in Gaza ends, then President Trump deserves credit. Maybe he even deserves his ultimate desire, the Nobel Peace Prize. But for those, like the “Morning Joe voices” of MSNBC who echo Trump by saying this is the “biggest negotiation ever”, I say this: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over”.
Let’s be clear: Gaza has been destroyed. Satellite surveys estimate that 80% of the habitable buildings are leveled or damaged. More than 50,000 civilians (not Hamas soldiers) are dead. Starvation is rampant, and with winter coming on, Gaza will be a humanitarian disaster, even if “the deal” is consummated this week.
The last “protected” part of Gaza are the remaining Hamas forces. While the surface of Gaza looks like an old black and white photo of Berlin at the end of World War II, underneath is a tunnel system longer than the New York and London subways combined. Current estimates are that only 40% of those have been destroyed. Where the tunnels remain, so does Hamas.
The founding principle of Israel was summed up in the term, “Never Forget”. What was meant to refer to the Holocaust, is now extended to the October 7th Hamas attack two years ago. Added to that should be the phrase “Never Forgive”. The Netanyahu government demands an unlimited amount of Palestinian blood in retribution. And the politics of Israel are stark: to remain in power, Netanyahu MUST “win the war”. Anything less will result in his removal from the Prime Minister’s office, and apportionment of blame for the failures that allowed the October 7th attack to happen in the first place.
Butcher’s Bill
Winning for Israel originally was the total destruction of Hamas. But that included, as a “sidebar”, the return of the hostages. Now, two years after they were taken that “butcher’s bill” remains. 257 were taken hostage originally. 148 have been released or rescued, alive. 75 were killed in captivity (58 of those bodies were repatriated). Three more were killed by “friendly fire” as they tried to escape in Gaza. That leaves 48 still held: 25 presumed dead, and 23 thought to be still alive after more than two years of captivity.
So what are the levers of power? Who is the Trump Administration able to “push” to reach some kind of agreement between these “blood enemies”? Here’s what I see as leverage that might end the bloodshed, at least for a while.
The most popular politician in Israel isn’t Benjamin Netanyahu, or even his political opposition leader, Yair Lapid. The leader with the most leverage in Israel is Donald Trump, the President of the United States. Israelis see Trump as the only person in the world that can bring an end to the Gaza War in a “pro-Israel” manner. And that makes the internal Israeli politics similar to the politics of the Republican Party in the United States. The critical issue going into the next Israeli election may be Trump’s support, just like here in the Ohio’s statewide primaries in 2026.
Who Does He Stand For?
If Trump stands with Netanyahu, then the current Prime Minister might survive the inevitable blowback from the October 7th attack. “Bebe” has pushed off elections “due to war” for two years. Now he’s up against a deadline in October of 2026. And while Netanyahu’s coalition contains hard-right parties that want nothing to do with a “peace plan”, Trump’s influence may be strong enough to overcome their pressure as well.
Netanyahu needs Trump to stay in office, and Trump knows it. As we see in American internal politics, that symbiotic relationship makes politicians do things we’d never thought possible. Strong Ukrainian supporters grow silent. Powerful state’s right advocates now support Federal government intervention in Democratic cities. Those who claimed that the Justice Department persecuted Republicans, are gleeful as that same Department prosecutes Democrats. All of that is under the leverage of Trump, who can end a primary campaign with a single “tweet”.
So will Netanyahu stand up to his right-wing supporters to say, “80% destruction, 50,000 Palestinian lives is enough”? He can only do it with Trump behind him.
Hamas
And what leverages Hamas? Simple survival is the quick answer. They face absolute destruction, and the Iranian help they’ve depended on for decades is now been (temporarily) disrupted by the Israeli and US bombing campaigns. The other Islamic Nations surrounding Israel; Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan; want the war to end. They want nothing to do with the Palestinians themselves, a “headache” they tried to avoid for nearly a century. But war is disruptive, and threatens to drag them into direct conflict with Israel. It already has in Lebanon and Syria. So they are supportive of peace, but have little leverage on Hamas.
Qatar has leverage. They have they served as the “safe space” for the Hamas political wing to emerge in public. And, with tacit Israeli acceptance, Qatar put almost $2 Billion into Gaza, including some direct support for Hamas itself. Israel signaled its current displeasure with Qatar by launching an attack on Hamas ceasefire negotiators there last month. President Trump responded by guaranteeing Qatar’s safety (an almost “Article Five” statement, an attack on Qatar is an attack on the US). He directly repudiated Israeli actions. It was that statement that began the serious “leverage campaign” on Netanyahu, and led to this final agreement.
In the background are the other Islamic Middle Eastern states, particularly Saudi Arabia. And Trump has used his direct representative to Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), the leader of Saudi, to pressure the deal on a region-wide basis. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner is unique. He has a personal friendship with MBS, and he’s also the godson of Netanyahu. It everything ends up being personal, then Trump has the “person” to push the parties to agree.
End of the Beginning
There is an agreement – tentatively. There are hostages to be released, both on Hama’s part (the survivors and the dead) and by Israel (1200 prisoners). Israel must move its military into defensive positions, and stop combat operations in Gaza. Hamas must give up weapons. And there’s a great deal of “territory” left undecided – most importantly those tunnels.
It’s a start. Hopefully humanitarian aid can immediately flow into Gaza, to stave off starvation, and begin to bring care and shelter to the million or so Palestinians still there.
The ultimate concern though, is what is left for the next generations. For Israelis, there is the indelible memory of October 7th, similar to Americans’ memory of 9/11. And for Palestinians, there is the terrible losses of civilians to Israeli actions. That will fester. And it’s likely to produce a whole new generation of terrorists willing to do anything to extract revenge.
Peace in Gaza today is important. But the “peace in our time” in the Middle East that the President offers, has a long, long way to go.
