Nuts and Bolts of Bombing Iran

This essay is channelling my inner “Tom Clancy”. So many weapons to talk about – and so little time!!!

MOAB

There is a difference between the “MOAB” (Massive Ordinance Air Blast, or Mother of All Bombs) dropped in Afghanistan during the first Trump Administration, and the “GBU-57 A/B” (Bunker Buster) bomb that is in the news today.  The MOAB – technically call the GBU-43; is a guided munition, shoved from the back of a C-130 transport aircraft.  It explodes with the force of 22,000 tons of TNT. That 22KT air blast is more powerful than the 14.5 KT Hiroshima nuclear blast.

But the MOAB isn’t nuclear, and doesn’t have the fallout and long term issues of a nuclear weapon.  It simply is the biggest non-nuclear bomb ever made, and has been used once, on the Afghanistan plains, against an underground ISIS headquarters.  Reportedly, 36 ISIS fighters were killed, and several of the tunnels in the headquarters collapsed.  Reports also spoke of the “psychological impact” of surviving such an enormous blast (USAF, ICRC).

Bunker Buster

The GBU-57 A/B has never been used in combat.  It “only” carries 2.75 tons of high explosives, but the actual weapon weighs 15 tons.  The added weight is in the armament.  The “Bunker Buster” is designed to penetrate 200 feet into the ground before it explodes. It reaches underground bunkers, the ones used by Iran to develop their nuclear capabilities.  It doesn’t have the “boom” of the MOAB, but what it will do is get to the target, then explode (Economist).

And the GBU-57 A/B is delivered by a war-fighting aircraft, the B-2 Stealth Bomber (the bat-wing bomber), unlike the MOAB’s transport aircraft.  It is ready to go into a combat zone if needed, without having total air superiority.

Currently B-2’s are stationed in two locations in the world.  The first is their home at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, a nearly 7000 mile one-way flight to Iran.  The second is on the remote Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, some 3300 miles away from possible targets in Iran.  So, B-2’s are already “half way” there. And the Israeli Air Force currently has total domination of Iranian air space.

Israel

Israeli intelligence claims that Iran is just weeks away from creating a nuclear weapon.  Israel has been dedicated to stopping Iranian nuclear development. They attacked Iranian nuclear research facilities before. They assassinated the best scientists and literally blew up the research libraries where nuclear information is stored.  

The Israelis have also attacked active nuclear facilities in Iran.  And now, Iran has less weapons to strike back at Israel. After the fall of Hamas in Gaza, and the decimation of Hezbollah (the cellphone and pager bomb attacks) in Lebanon; Israel has degraded Iran’s ability to strike at the Israeli homeland. 

In the last few days, Israel attacked the Iranian nuclear program directly. They hit the scientists who directed the research, and the leadership of Iran itself.  While Israel hasn’t directly attacked the Iranian President or the Ayatollah who is Supreme Leader, they have not ruled out a “decapitation” strike in the future.  Israel controls the skies over Iran. But the Iranians remain capable of launching drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel. 

The combination of Israeli defenses, United States carrier based aircraft and Arleigh Burke class destroyers stationed in the seas near the Israeli coast, gives Israel a highly effective defense umbrella.  In addition, the United States is moving more assets into the region. That includes a second carrier group, the Nimitz coming from Southeast Asia.

Carrier groups each have a broad defense umbrella provided by both aircraft and supporting destroyers and other vessels.  They already played a significant role in stopping previous Iranian attacks on Israel, and continue to do so in the current conflict.  So two carrier groups, plus the Israeli based systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, the US Thaad system, and others) create a great deal of protection.

Intelligence

But United States intelligence agencies, other European agencies, and the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency all say that the Israelis are wrong. They report that Iran is far from “weeks away” from a nuclear weapon. In fact, they say it’s closer to a year or more.  So part of the decision making about US involvement against Iran is determined by:  who does the President believe?  Does he accept the information from his own intelligence agencies, the “Five Eyes” countries and the IAEA? Or does he take the word of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu? 

We know that Donald Trump distrusts the CIA and other US intelligence agencies.  He sees them as aligned against him, and in part responsible for the Russia Investigations that marred his first term in office.  We also know that Trump is disregarding the advice of his own controversial National Security Advisor, Tulsi Gabbard, who even went so far as to be part of a television advertising campaign telling the President not to attack Iran.   

Politics

And we know that the MAGA-Republican party is deeply divided over military involvement in Iran.  Not just Senator Rand Paul, but Trump-supporters like Tucker Carlson are speaking out against attack.  Even previous statements by Vice President JD Vance against US involvement are being brought out – though Vance today says we need to “trust Trump” to do the right thing.

But we also know that Benjamin Netanyahu needs war to stay in office to avoid Israeli prison.   The war in Gaza has slowed to starving Palestinians and “mopping up” the remaining Hamas members.  So the Prime Minister needs the “political cover” of a shooting war.   It shouldn’t be a surprise that he picked one with Iran.

One thing we know for sure.  Donald Trump believes he has the absolute authority to launch an attack on Iran at his own discretion.  And those in the chain of command, including Defense Secretary Hegseth, will immediately obey such an order.  While some Senators, even Republicans, are calling for “Congressional consultation” before the US goes to war; if Trump decides to attack, there is little anyone in the United States can do to stop him.

Power

We have the weapons.  We have the capacity to deliver those weapons.  And, we have a high probability of short-term success in a military attack.  We can knock out Iranian nuclear production, at least for a while.  What we don’t control is the Iranian response.  There are 40,000 US servicemen and women within attack range of Iran.  Not all of them are under the “umbrella” of carrier defense groups.  In fact, some are very vulnerable.  So what will be the American response when Iran retaliates against US troops, after a “Bunker Buster” bombing?

That’s the question that Donald Trump, and Pete Hegseth, and the MAGA “brain trust” in the White House needs to answer, BEFORE they drop “the big one”.   But maybe Donald Trump wants to be a “war President”. 

 After all, the greatest power any United States President has, is summed up in three words:  Commander-in-Chief.