Category: Uncategorized

Bloodbath

I Heard It

Stop telling me, “don’t believe your lying ears”.  I listened to some of Trump’s nonsense in Dayton this weekend.  I saw him stand, proudly, saluting during the National Anthem, honoring his so-called “hostages” in the District of Columbia jail.  They are incarcerated for charges from January 6th.  And I heard him say, “…if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath.”  

The next day, Republican politicians from Mike Johnson (Dayton’s Congressman) to Bill Cassidy (Louisiana Senator) tried to “spin” that phrase.  “Oh, he was talking about Chinese electric car manufacturers if we don’t stop them, it will be a ‘bloodbath’ in the auto industry”.  Even former Vice President Pence, the target of the mob on January 6th, still gave Trump a “pass” on his threat (or promise).

Here’s the whole paragraph, stuck within Trump’s longer ‘riff’ about the car industry.

“We’re going to put a 100% tariff on every single (Chinese) car that comes across the line, and you’re not going to be able to sell those guys if I get elected. Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole – that’s gonna be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That’ll be the least of it.” (CNN).

I Believe It

Maya Angelou famously said:  “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”.  The man in the red hat, who saluted the American flag while the National Anthem sung by insurrectionists was played, said it would be a bloodbath for the country if he loses.  On January 6th 2021, as President of the United States he went to the Mall and told his followers to march on the Capitol.  I’m weary of the “spin”.  I’ve heard way more than enough.  

The 1960’s singing group the Monkees sang:  “I’m a believer…not a shred of doubt in my mind”.  Trump has shown us who he is, time and time again.  There is no doubt that if Trump loses in November, he will call for a “Storm of retribution” to take over the government.   The question I have, is who will answer his call this time?

Foot Soldiers

There’s a couple of ways to look at the question – where are Trump’s foot-soldiers?  The evidence we have is what’s happened at Trump’s hearings in New York, Washington, and Florida.  The former President, still protected by the US Secret Service, makes grand entrances to each of those Court appearances.  And at first, the Courts and cities made grand preparations to handle “the mob”.  But, even from the first appearances, it was clear that the “Trump’s warriors” weren’t coming.  

How much of a conspiracy theory does it take?  Is Trump calling for his “people”, and they aren’t coming because they’re done with him?  It would make sense, the rest of us are done with him, for sure.  Or is there some more insidious plan?  Are the Trump “soldiers” lulling us into complacency, setting a trap?  Sure they aren’t there at the trials, but they’ll re-emerge at state Capitols and in Washington when the time comes, and  Trump fails at the polls once again.

Concerns

Our National intelligence agencies fell far short in 2021. While Washington went on “full alert” for Black Lives Matter protests, no one seemed worried about  the Red-Hatted Trumpers.  Maybe that was because they were White, or maybe no one believed their own “lying eyes and ears”.  So it is a concern that our political class still normalizes the kind of language that Trump uses and is willing to “cover” for his real meaning.  The idea that what Trump says is “not important” allows him to communicate to his followers in plain sight.  

And it’s a concern that the current Department of Justice delayed bringing charges against Trump or the other political leadership of his “Stop the Steal” movement until two years after the insurrection.  That reluctance to engage leaves America denied legal resolution, and vulnerable to the continuing litany of “stolen Presidency” lies.   When Trump promises a bloodbath, he makes a clarion call to his supporters.  They know what he wants them to do.

Do WE know what to do?  It starts with believing our own eyes and ears.  We don’t know what’s going to happen in the next nine months.  All we can do is make sure Trump fails in the election, and then fortify our democracy for the worst.  If it’s all a bluff, then all we are out is time and effort.

And if the “Storm of retribution” is real – then maybe we can save our country.

Tic-Tac-Toe

Thanks Speaker Emeritus Pelosi for the essay title – even though we don’t agree on the outcome!!

Rant

Let me get this off of my chest.  I am tired, so very tired, of hearing the Chinese Government referred to as “THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY”.  Listen, I’m not stupid.  I know the Conservative Party runs the United Kingdom, Likud controls Israel, the Vietnamese Communist Party runs Vietnam and, yes, the Communist Party runs China. Oh, by the way, do we say the American Democratic Party instead of the United States?  What, we don’t?  

I know the Communist Party runs China.  I can even give a summary of how Mao Zedong and the Communists defeated Chang Kai-shek and the Nationalists (now in power in Taiwan).  When politicians (of both political parties) and the media use “THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY” label instead of just China, or the Chinese government, it’s a “Red Scare” tactic still stale from the 1950’s.  McCarthyism made us so afraid of “Red”, that the Cincinnati Reds changed their name to “Red-legs”, and maps that used to signify the British Empire in red switched that color to the Soviet Union and China.  It’s a fear tactic from our sorry past, along with “America First” with all of its isolationist flaws.  

So Tik-Tok came from China.  So did my MacBook Pro and my I-Phone.  The fact the Communist Party controls China doesn’t need to be shoved up my – nose – every time we talk about it.  There; rant’s over. 

Tik Tok

Now let’s get to the “bane of adult existence”, Tik Tok.  Full disclosure:  I don’t do Tik Tok.  I do have the “app” on my phone, and it does open, but I don’t use it.  And, I have fallen “down the well” of Tik Tok videos on Facebook a few times, losing several minutes of my life.  I understand the “addictive” features, and I get how young people get “sucked in”.  I also understand that it’s a powerful medium for communication, even if you don’t like what’s being communicated.  So are Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter (Elon’s messed up ‘X’) and to a much lesser extent, all of the messaging and blogging apps.  

Bad Rap

Tik Tok’s gotten a “bad rap” with us adults.  All we think of is kids eating Tide pods, or trashing school restrooms, or mimicking some other video they see.  And that all really happened.  But it seems to me that Tik Tok is just very successful at what many of the other apps are trying to do.  And more importantly, we are conceding that parents and other adults can’t control their own kids.  

It’s just the old adage writ large:  “If Jimmy next door jumps off of the Empire State Building, you’ll jump off the Empire State Building”.  “If you see kids eating Tide pods on Tik Tok, will you eat Tide pods on Tik Tok?” We can’t change Jimmy, all we can do is make our kids stronger.   Banning Jimmy just makes it easier for Bobby down the street.

It’s that “bad rap” that’s put the target on Tik Tok.  But Tik Tok is also a valuable communication tool, one that many “older/young adults” use to get information. President Biden has a Tik Tok feed, as does that other guy.  In spite of that, the US Congress is cavalierly jumping on their right to give and get information.  That’s a huge First Amendment issue. Even more importantly, take out Tik Tok, and some other form will just take its place.  

When I hear the “old, white, men” of Congress complaining about Tik Tok, I’m reminding of all those “old, white, men” who complained about Elvis Presley’s hips, or the Beatles’ haircuts, or “Puff the Magic Dragon” (is it about marijuana?) It’s this generation’s Zombie Nazis video games: the older generations just don’t get it.

Information Mining

But what about the – BREATHLESS – CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY!!!!! We are giving our information, our metadata, our location data, our innermost thoughts and dreams to the CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY!!!  And our KIDS are giving it to them too!  China (tired of capital letters) will use that against our population, or worse, they’ll manipulate how Americans think – through Tik Tok!! We all saw the movie, The Manchurian Candidate (at least the old one – Sinatra, not Denzel).  Wasn’t that the Chinese (Communist Party)??

So here’s the bad news.  The Chinese Government can buy that same information from dozens of sources, legally.  Sure I don’t want Tik Tok to give them data.  I don’t want Zuckerberg’s Facebook to do it either.  And I sure don’t want Elon Musk to have my ‘X’ data.  But by signing onto the app, I’m giving them all exactly that.  The “algorithm” is simple.  I don’t pay for Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, Twitter, or the Tik Tok I don’t use.  Chinese Communism to the contrary, it’s a capitalistic marketplace, and nothing is free.  Why would Facebook let me post, and not charge me?  They’re collecting my data, and selling it off. That’s where the “money” is.

Parenting

Congress:  Don’t ban Tik Tok.  It’s a drop in the bucket (or, maybe a little bigger, more like an ongoing drip).  If you want to make a difference in information in the digital age; regulate data sweeping and mining, and those cookies in programs, so when I check out track starting pistols on Google, I don’t get ads for every form of semi-automatic military-style rifles.  Ask Ro Khanna, the Congressman from Silicon Valley. He’s ready to do that “hard work” of really controlling personal information.

Parents:  if you don’t want your kid on Tik Tok:  take control of your kid, their phone, and their life.  It’s the hard thing to do, like keeping your kid off drugs and alcohol.  And just like those, your kid will likely make mistakes.  Then love them, and teach them, and learn to trust them when you can.  It’s called parenting, and letting them grow up.  

We don’t need Congress to “parent” for us – do we??

 YOUR SAFE SPOT!!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!!!! – This is another “Sunday Story”; no politics here, just a story about what was “on TV” Thursday night.

Ritual

On Thursday nights Jenn and I have an “old” ritual.  Not that Jenn’s old (that only applies to me), but we do have a serious addiction:  Law and Order SVU (look, Jenn I didn’t say SUV!!).  After twenty-five years, the SVU cast has become part of our family.  And since it’s on almost every afternoon as well, we can catch up on all twenty-five years’ worth if we miss one.   So we settled in after dinner, to watch the entire current package, Law and Order, Law and Order SVU, and Law and Order – Organized Crime.  

But tonight our shows are pre-empted – a new show is on. It’s called “GET TO YOUR SAFE SPOT!!”  It’s March in Ohio in this era of climate change, and tornado season is here, a month or more early.  Our local station covers most of Central Ohio, and storms are moving in.  So it’s all WEATHER ALERT, all the time – at least for tonight.

Best Show On TV

We’ve got a couple of hours until our home in Pataskala gets into serious stuff, though the lightning is already flashing.  But, since there are tornadoes on the ground in the viewing area, the local station goes full time.  We are learning about tornado indices (who knew – a 5 or above means there’s a good chance a tornado is on the ground), severe hail (1 ½” sized – ping pong ball), and wind shears.

Just twenty miles north, Delaware is under the gun, and areas to the northwest have already been hammered.  We’ve can see the storm headed for us – a tornado down right now, near Greenville, Ohio.  That’s about 100 miles west of us and that storm cell is headed our way.    

Dave Says

It’s fascinating to watch.  The bright oranges and reds, the greens and purples, all light up the TV screen.  I’m not a hallucinogens user, but if I was this would be the show to see:  lines, flashing colors, lightning, wind shear grids, consuming all attention.  There’s even a new feature:  a new blue spot on the radar.  That signifies debris is in the air (remember that great line from the movie Twister, “debris, debris, cow!!!”).  It’s actually pretty cool, as long as you don’t think about what’s happening on the ground underneath all those “pretty colors”.

Dave’s the weatherman, and he talks directly to the audience.  It’s not just about the map.  Dave will look straight into the camera, straight at you, and say:  “If you live in Ostrander, you need to be in your ‘safe spot’ right now!!!”  And he must know more about me, and a lot of other watchers, then he should.  “Don’t go outside and look for it, it’s dark and you won’t see it until it’s too late.  Besides, 1 ½” sized hail can hurt, and break the windows in your house.  Safe Spot, now!!!”

We’ve Been There

The other part of watching the “Tornado Show” is reminiscing.  Over the past several years, Jenn has trapped dogs in lots of little towns and crossroads throughout the state.  I often go along as the driver/trap-hauler.  We know folks who helped us out in a lot of those places.

So when a tornado was on the ground, “West of Indian Lake and south of Waynesfield” we know where that is:  it’s New Hampshire, Ohio, a tiny crossroads where Jenn sat in near sub-zero weather waiting for two Pyrenees to go into a panel trap, just a few months ago (Rube Goldberg ).  That’s not much there, and after a tornado, I’m afraid there’s even less.  The nice man who let us use his land and shed to put up the trap – I hope he’s OK, and without much damage. (Actually, an F3 tornado did a lot of damage to the area, and killed three people).

The Greenville tornado is not far from another trapper/friend.  We’ve been to her house, exchanging equipment, often enough that I don’t even have to listen to “Siri” on the map application anymore to get there.

We may not be in the “tornado zone” yet.  But the lights are flashing, the hail’s pounding the roof and piling up on the deck, and the dogs are starting to look nervous.   It used to be that when night fell, the storms lost their power.  But tonight, and in the big dawn-thirty morning a couple of weeks ago, lack of the warming sun doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of difference. Climate change?  It definitely could be.  It’s March 14th, just before St. Patrick’s Day, and it’s sixty-seven degrees at 9:15pm.  It’s hot, the dogs are annoyed (especially Buddy, our old man), and there’s still energy in the atmosphere.

Our Spot

I’ve already written about our “safe spot”, the two bathrooms in the house (Singing in the Tornado).  Buddy may beat us all to the bathtub, but Atticus is going to be a problem.  He’s still recovering from his knee surgery, and the only way to keep him off his leg is drugs.  And he is drugged for the night – it will take some serious “treats” to get him up and moving again.  Let’s hope we can avoid — oops, there go the tornado sirens.  Lou’s, the crooner, is listening. I’m betting sings again!!

It takes until the second round of alerts – but now Lou and CeCe, our little one, are harmonizing together – “OOOWWW-UUUUUUH” – it’s the call of the wild.

The storm wore out before it got here – we got lots of rain, some wind, but nothing tornadic.  But it looks like we might be in for a bad tornado season:  Look out, 1974!!!

The Sunday Story Series

Let Down

Lying Eyes

To be honest, I feel like the American Justice system has let us down.  From the Supreme Court to the line judges and prosecutors, our Judicial system was “played”.  If justice delayed is justice denied, then we, the American people, have been left high and dry.  And if our justice system was supposed to be the last bulwark, the final defense of democracy, I have a sad conclusion.  It doesn’t work.

I have eyes and ears.  I sat horrified on January 6th, 2021, watching as the Capitol was stormed by a mob. It was sent by a President trying to remain in office.  Then, I listened to the President of the United States, on the phone with the Secretary of State of Georgia. He demanded that Georgia “find votes” so that he could remain in office, and threatened retribution if they didn’t.  And I viewed the photographs of classified documents. They were stacked on the performance stage of a supper club and piled in the shower of the “golden bathroom”.  

But our Court systems, from a Georgia county judge to the Supreme Court of the United States, failed. They are telling me not to believe my “lying eyes” or my “failing ears”. 

Mueller 

I’ve heard it all before.  I watched as a good man, a powerful public official, was stymied by those who were willing to “fix the game”.  Robert Mueller may not have been at his best at the end. He was dragged into a House hearing really physically incapable of  testifying.  But what Mueller didn’t tell us was that his investigation, the first foray into the ugly world of Trump, was hamstrung.  He reported to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who placed guardrails that Mueller felt duty-bound to follow.  So he never, to use a Watergate phrase, “followed the money” – that wasn’t inside the “lines”.  And he allowed the Trump team to “stonewall” his investigation He sadly lamened the fact they lied to his investigators. But he did not file charges against them.

And Rosenstein’s boss, “the institutionalist” Attorney General William Barr, set the political stage for the judicial failure of the Mueller investigation.  He doctored the outcome, leaving his “friend” Mueller high and dry.

By the way, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Rosenstein’s protégé, Robert Hur, found a way to ambush President Biden without bringing charges. He learned from a master (see an essay earlier this week, Comey Revisited).

Perfect Calls

And Trump’s phone call to Raffensperger in Atlanta now falls into the same category as Trump’s call to Zelenskyy in Kyiv; a “perfect call”.  The Senate failed in their duty to protect the Nation. They let Trump “off” for the Zelenskyy call, extorting a foreign President to find “dirt” on his political opponent, Joe Biden, in exchange for US military aid. This week, Fulton County Judge Scott McAfee threw the Raffensperger call out of the Fani Willis trial. (Though it might be refiled).  The Judge is telling us all, our “lying ears” didn’t hear the most powerful man in the world try to intimidate a state official into “giving” him votes – even though we did.

Shooting Straighter

Hard to imagine, but I do need to give the Trump legal team credit.  For years, the “Trump lawyers” have been a laughing-stock of the legal community. They’re briefs and pleadings looked worse than high school performances, much less law school graduates.  But the “gang that couldn’t shoot straight” are batting nearly a-thousand right now. The Trump strategy of delay-delay-delay worked at every level. 

The Supreme Court did their “duty”. They decided to hear the specious “I’m immune from any prosecution” case and delayed the January 6th trial until after the election. And the Department of Justice, (the President Biden appointed Garland Department of Justice), managed to stall the New York-Stormy Daniels case. SDNY held thirty-one thousand pages of evidence until the last minute, then dumped them on both the prosecution and the defense.  

That fits with the entire Garland Department handling of the Trump cases.  While it’s easier to blame judges, in the end, it was main-Justice that held the cases away from Trump. It took almost two years before a Special Prosecutor was even appointed to investigate the twice-impeached former President.  

And of course, the Trump sycophant Federal Judge in Florida is running the classified documents  case with “all deliberate speed”. The emphasis is on deliberate.  It still bears examination:  how did “random chance” get that case in front of Judge Cannon,  the one judge in the district, bound and determined to protect the former President above all else.  Don’t believe me:  ask the 11th Appeals Court, who overruled her twice in the beginnings of this legal debacle.

The Last Defense

For those few who had hope that our legal system would stand when the House, the Senate, and the Executive branch did not, if have bad news.  It didn’t happen.  If Donald Trump by hook or by crook, wins the Presidency again, the Federal cases will “go away”, and the state cases will be delayed until, if or when, he leaves the Presidency.  

What’s left is us, both in the you and me meaning, and the United States meaning.  We are the last bulwark of justice and democracy.  We have the “final answer” to this long running show, the ultimate authority in what will sadly be called by future history teachers as the “Trump Era”.  America gets to vote in November, and decide the most important issue:  is our future with Trump, or with democracy.  

We can’t depend on anything else.   

Pipe Dream

Apocalypse Now

If you’re a Democrat, the election of 2024 seems apocalyptic.  Progressive media sends the message over and over again:  if the MAGA-Republicans win the Presidency, it might be the last free election in the American “experiment”.  While this seems breathlessly catastrophic, there are world data-points to fact-check the claim.  Look at Europe, particularly Russia, Hungary, Poland, and Turkey:  authoritarian leaders, freely elected, have altered democracy into something more reminiscent of Mussolini’s Italy ( Hah – avoided “Godwin’s Law”).  Fascism is on the rise.

But assuming (there’s that whole ass of you and me thing) that the Nation comes to its senses, dodges this bullet and once again elects Joe Biden, it doesn’t mean everything is “rosy”.  A second Biden term will do little to alter the six-three conservative majority on the Supreme Court (though, obviously, the Deity could take a hand in that).  Short of some kind of court-packing scheme, the Supreme Court can’t be counted on to protect the rights of individuals; now, or in the foreseeable future.

House Control

As the current deadlock in the Congress demonstrates, any President can be stymied by a recalcitrant House or Senate.  The House is “locked-in” by nationwide Gerrymandering to a narrow partisan difference, and political control resides in those few districts that really can “swing” from one party to the other.  

But signs look good for Democrats in the House.  New York state redrew their Congressional districts once again, this time with State Court approval, and four Districts that went Republican in 2022 may well be back in the Democratic column.  In addition, lawsuits in Alabama and Louisiana (and potentially Georgia and North Carolina) will put several other districts in play.  And, of course, 2024 is a Presidential election year, likely to have a record voter turnout.  That almost always benefits the Democratic vote.  

With the House Republican by a slim two-vote margin now, it’s likely that Mike Johnson will conclude his term quickly, and Hakeem Jeffries will gain the gavel and become the first Black Speaker of the House in 2025.

Paddling Upstream

Which brings us to the US Senate. Currently, the Democrats have forty-eight seats and Republicans hold forty-nine.  There are three “independents” in the Senate (King of Maine, Sanders of Vermont, and Sinema of Arizona) and all three organize with the Democrats, giving “Blue” a two vote margin of control.  But,  every two years, a third of the Senators are up for election. And this year, twenty-four of those seats are held by Democrats.  

Democrats are on the defense in the Senate.   The “good news”, only seven of those twenty-four seats are really competitive.  The bad news – Democrats will start 2025 down one.  Joe Manchin of West Virginia is retiring, and there isn’t another Democrat in the state that can win his seat.  So, Republicans will start with a “tie”, requiring the Vice President to break it. Unfortunately the news doesn’t get much better, and Democrats will have to run the table to maintain control.  Here are the “nuts and bolts” for Senate control in 2025.  

Dems Up

In Arizona, independent (former Democrat) Sinema isn’t running for re-election.  Congressman Reuben Gallego is the Democratic nominee, running against MAGA-Republican and failed 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.  Everything is within the margins in Arizona, but Gallego has the advantage both in current polling and in raising money.  Lake’s extremism turned off the “McCain Republicans” in 2022, and hopefully Gallego will spark a huge Hispanic turnout in the state – good for him, and good for Joe Biden.

Maryland should be a Democratic “no brainer”.  But Ben Cardin is retiring from the seat, and there’s a scramble of Democrats trying to earn the nomination.  Meanwhile, moderate Republican and former Governor Larry Hogan chose not to accept the “No Labels” offer of a quixotic Presidential bid, and is running for Senate instead.  Even though Hogan is a “moderate”, if he wins, he’ll organize with the MAGA-Republicans in the Senate.  Any Democrat should still have the advantage, but Hogan is a force to be reckoned with in Maryland, and shouldn’t be ignored.

Dems Even

Then there are the two incumbent Senators running “against the grain” of their states, John Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.  In the past, both Senators were able to maintain their seats in spite of the statewide trend, but every time they’re on the ballot, a Democratic seat is in peril.  Count on many millions of dollars backing their campaigns, and in Ohio, it doesn’t look like a particularly strong opponent for Brown.  But for Democrats, Montana and Ohio must be a nail biter, even in a Presidential year.

In Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all Presidential swing states, the Senate candidates should have an easier time of re-election.  Presidential turnouts should assure re-election, with Rosen, Casey and Baldwin all returning to office.  While a Trump victory in any of those states could wash them out as well, it’s more likely those seats will hold.

Dem Dreams

Which leaves us with the Democratic “pipe dream” of changing Red Texas.  Ted Cruz is clearly the least liked Senator in the chamber, and hasn’t been particularly popular in Texas either. But he survived a strong challenge from Beto O’Rourke back in 2018, and now faces a formidable opponent in Congressman (and former NFL linebacker) Colin Allred.   They’ll be lots of money in that campaign as well, but betting on a Democrat to win Texas, is a lot like betting on one to win in Florida.  It’s a great idea, who’s time hasn’t quite come – yet – maybe.  

If everything went right for Democrats, except for Texas, they will have a majority based on the re-election of Vice President Harris.  If there’s a single slip, then a second Biden Administration will face a Republican Senate, no longer moderated (if that’s what it was) by Mitch McConnell.  A MAGA-Republican would be the Majority Leader, for at least the first two years.  And don’t count on Senate “tradition” to hold with that “new sheriff” in town.  Democrats might wish for the filibuster rule, but that might be a pipe dream too.

Comey Revisited

House Hearings

It’s been a while since I spent a day watching Congressional hearings.  I remember the “bad old days”. FBI Director James Comey excoriated by both sides over the Hillary Clinton decision. Michael Cohen giving us the “inside scoop with receipts” on the workings of the Trump Administration.  But all of that seems somehow like ancient history now; almost “quaint” stories of a time when things seemed simpler, and definitely more hopeful.

Comey ended the investigation of then-candidate Clinton for using a private email server. He determined that her actions did not rise to the level of a crime.  But, instead of just declining to charge, Comey gave a national press conference where he emphasized Clinton’s careless behavior.  He then re-opened the investigation of Clinton, just ten days before the election.  His actions, while likely unintentional, were the proximate cause of the election of Donald Trump to the Presidency in 2016.

Hur’s Conclusions

Yesterday the newly resigned Special Counsel for the Department of Justice, Robert Hur, testified to the House Judiciary Committee.  Like Comey, Prosecutor Hur also tried to have it both ways.  He declined to prosecute President Biden for violating national security laws and mishandling classified documents.  That should have been the “headline”.  But, as outlined in the report Hur issued, one of his reasons for declination that he didn’t “feel” that a jury would convict Biden, because the President came across as a “…likeable but forgetful old man”.  Hur argued a jury would decide that Biden couldn’t form the intent to commit the crime.  In essence, Biden was too old to think it through.

Biden sat for five hours (over two days) of voluntary deposition with Hur and his staff, in the midst of the crisis after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th.  It was from those hours that Hur drew his conclusions.  But a reading of the transcript (released yesterday) showed that while Biden did get some dates and details wrong, he also showed clear recall of a lot of other facts and events.   The “charge” against Hur is that he “cherry picked” incidents of forgetfulness, while himself forgetting other instances where Biden demonstrated a clear memory and understanding.

Hur declined charges.  But like Comey, he denied Biden his  “day in court” where he might be found guilty, or might be exonerated.  Instead, Hur found the sitting President, without trial, “guilty” of senility.  Much like Comey’s ill-fated press conference, the Hur Report essentially condemned Biden, without giving him an opportunity to give his side of the story.

Ignorant or Intent

There are two ways to look at what Hur did.  The first is to say that, like Comey, Hur was simply “calling it as he sees it”.  Hur argues that he was required to give his reasons for declining charges, and his evaluation of Biden’s mental state was one of the important ones.  In essence, Hur provided Biden with a defense that the President certainly would never choose on his own.  It might keep him from conviction, but its stigma might prevent his re-election as President.  

Or, Hur, a life-long Republican, clerk for Republican Chief Justice Rehnquist, and protégé of Trump Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein; might be acting as a partisan.  He definitely gave ammunition to the pro-Trump forces, perhaps in hopes of becoming the Attorney General in a second Trump Administration. 

Confirmation Bias

There is a big difference between the impact Comey had in 2016 and what effect the Hur report will have today.  In 2016 the Nation wasn’t sure about Donald Trump, but had very definite opinions about Hillary Clinton (even before “Hillary’s email”).  In 2024, the Biden versus Trump sides are virtually cemented in place.  There is little room for persuasion; the partisans of either side ignore information that doesn’t fit their pre-conceived model.  

In short, MAGA supporters, of course, agree that Biden is senile.  They’ve been saying it for years, and Hur’s determination simply confirms their decision.   On the other hand, Biden supporters have heard the same talk about Biden for years, and deny it each time.  This will be just one more moment when they can ignore information that fails to fit their preconceived notion.

Biden supporters just see if as another “shot” by a Republican operative, just like the Supreme Court decisions in favor of Trump look like another Republican scheme.   In the end, both sides look for confirmation of their pre-conceived ideas, and ignore the rest.

In other news, last night’s primary election results confirmed what we all knew:  it’s Biden versus Trump, part “deux”;  buckle-up. 

Cold Warrior

Bombs on the Way

I grew up in the “Cold War” Era.  In fact, the Cold War was a major emphasis of my college degree.  It  wasn’t just history, it was current events.  The dark humor of our foreign policy study group, steeped in the utter destructiveness of nuclear weapons, came through in a joke about a television announcement: “This just in, Moscow in flames, bombs on the way, film at eleven!!”  The “joke” was that if bombs were really on the way, there would be no station left to show the film at eleven, nor were we likely to be alive to see it.

I lived in the intersection of circles, a Venn diagram of the areas of destruction from twenty megaton nuclear weapons.  Living in Granville, Ohio at Denison University, we were on the edge of total destruction if Columbus (and particularly Rickenbacker Air Base) was hit, and well within the destruction if the missile development base in Newark, Ohio was destroyed.  Surviving a nuclear attack wasn’t an issue: we wouldn’t.

At that time, the “stability” of the world depended on a theory called Mutual Assured Destruction, “MAD”.  It was pretty simple.  No matter what kind of attack we made on the Soviet Union, or they made on the United States, there was no way that would completely disable the other side’s response.  Launch every missile, all the bombers, ballistic missile submarines:  in the end the “other” side had an invulnerable second strike capability.  That second strike would cause unacceptable losses.

Eyeball to Eyeball

It wasn’t that the United States and the Soviet Union didn’t come up against each-other’s military.  We stood “eyeball to eyeball” across the Berlin Wall, and the length of the East German border, and in dozens of other spots in the world.  But we avoided direct combat with each other because of the risk of escalation into a wider conflict, one that could go nuclear.  We got close enough to that in the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I started learning about that in first grade.  It was 1962, and all of a sudden what used to be “tornado” drills, were now called “air raid” drills.  We first graders were lined up in the hallway, against the brick wall; head between our knees and hands over our neck.  We knew that if a “bomb” went off, we’d be OK.  But we felt bad for our teachers, standing behind us, nervously pacing the hallway.  They were going to get “hit”.  

It was the Cuban missile crisis, and we were living in a Detroit suburb.  A twenty megaton bomb on Detroit would absolutely have destroyed our community as well, sitting or standing. 

So instead of risking direct conflict, the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in a series of “proxy” wars.  One side would support a “third party proxy” to combat the other. It started in Korea, when the Soviets supported North Korea and later China in direct warfare with US and other allied Forces.  Then Vietnam, when the Soviets supported North Vietnam against the direct intervention of the US in South Vietnam.  Next was Afghanistan, when the US supported the Mujahideen against the Soviets.  And throughout the era, there were multiple parts of Africa and the Middle East, where both Soviets and Americans supported groups struggling to gain power.

Pay to Play

The Cold War ended when the Soviet Union went bankrupt trying to “keep up” with the United States militarily.  It wasn’t just the enormous amount of both blood and treasure the USSR was spending in Afghanistan, it was also the high tech weaponry that cost astronomical amounts to create and produce.  An example:  the US built 32 SR-71 Blackbirds as a supersonic, edge of space flying platform for reconnaissance.  They cost  $23 million each.  In response, the Soviets developed their own Mig 25 Foxbat and Mig 31 Foxhound to try to shoot the SR-71’s down.  All of the planes were extremely costly, but the US economy was strong enough to bear the cost.  The Soviet economy was not.

Out of the ashes of the Soviet collapse, the present day Russian oligarchy rose.  It’s a nation based on corruption, the wealth of a few individuals based on the “fire sale, pennies on the dollar” dissolution of the state owned Communist economy.   The leaders of Russia are the rich, and the people of Russia are left behind, just as they were by the Soviet system.  President Vladimir Putin has greater goals than just his billions of rubles hidden away.  He wants to rebuild the “Soviet Empire” as his own Russian Empire.  It’s nothing new, he’s been doing it for two decades.  

Russian Empire

The world did little about Russian incursions into Georgia and Chechnya.  And Putin has pulled Belarus and Armenia “close” as well.  Even when Russia sliced off two eastern provinces and Crimea in Ukraine in 2014, the only world response was economic sanctions.

So it should be no surprise that Putin wanted more, and launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine two years ago.  The difference is, for the first time, a former Soviet province had enough power to stand up to Russian might, and even drive it back.  That’s where we are today, two years later.  The Ukrainian democracy isn’t perfect, but it’s stopped what was supposed to be the third most powerful military force in the world.  

That’s in the United States best interests.  If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, there is no reason for him to stop there.  Transnistria, a renegade province of neighboring Moldova, is already under Russian influence.  And bordering Moldova is Bulgaria, a member of NATO.  NATO members also are west of Ukraine, and next “on the block” for Russian expansion.  Under Article 5 of the NATO charter, an attack on one member is an attack on us all.

Ukraine’s Stand

The equation is simple.  We can support Ukraine, willing to shed their blood to stop the Russian advance.  The US can spend money and resources without risking American lives, and not only defend Ukraine, but drain the Russian military and economy even more.  It’s a scenario that Ronald Reagan would love.

Or we can let Ukraine fail, and Russia takeover.  And we can expect that, soon, we will be fighting with American forces, somewhere in a NATO country in Eastern Europe.  And, by the way, the missiles are still in the silos, the “bombs” can still be on the way.  Do we want a direct confrontation with the “other” biggest nuclear power in the world?

The choice is clear – a “pay me now” or “surely pay me later” scenario.  If we can look past our own domestic politics, it’s in every American’s interest to help Ukraine.  We can call it military aid, which it is, or we can use the ruse of “lending” Ukraine materials, a loan that will never be repaid.  It doesn’t matter what the political fig leaf is; what matters is that the materials keep flowing to Ukraine.  Not only does their courage and sacrifice deserve it; it’s in America’s best interest. 

Ukraine Crisis

A Horse for the Race

Super Tuesday

It’s the week after “Super Tuesday”; supposed to be the “pivotal moment” of the 2024 Primary campaigns.  But there were no surprises on “Super Tuesday”, in fact, it really wasn’t quite so “super” at all.  The results, with maybe an exception in Vermont, were entirely predictable.  In fact, the Democrats made up their mind a long time before “Super-Day”, so it’s no surprise that Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate.  And so did the MAGA-Republican Party (not your father’s Republicans, or mine).  They are committed to following a whole dark ideology, represented best by the Republican retort to the State of the Union address last Thursday night.

Thirty-eight year old Alabama Senator Katie Britt delivered the speech, ostensibly from her kitchen table (though my kitchen didn’t look that good the day after they built it in 2013).  She projected “America” as a dark world, where families huddle around the table, holding hands in prayer, unable to pay their bills and waiting for undocumented migrants (not “illegals” for God’s sake) to break down the doors and do unspeakable things.  Well, not unspeakable, Senator Britt was certainly willing to describe in detail the human trafficking and raping of a migrant woman.  Too bad that was all in Mexico, not in the United States, and during the Bush Administration. 

And while Britt didn’t straight-out say it, she certainly made the point:  only Donald Trump can fix this problem. As Saturday Night Live put it: Britt’s America is Hell.

 So here we are, like a seventh “Rocky” movie:  Biden versus Trump, the sequel. It’s certainly not a “dream race” of American politics, not a Kennedy versus Nixon, or even an Obama versus McCain.  Call it what it is:  two old men, running again.  

No Labels

After Super Tuesday’s results, the leadership of the “No Labels Party” met to decide whether to place a third party Presidential ticket on the ballot in November.   After more than a year of claiming that they were open to stepping back, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the answer is, “we’re running”.  Millions of dollars, and a running fight, mostly with Democrats, already set that answer into stone.  

Here’s the “calculus” for November.  The MAGA-Republican Party, as Nikki Haley was quick to discover, is singularly the property of Donald Trump.  Sure, Haley won a decent percentage of vote in some states, but those were usually states with “open” primaries, where independents and Democrats could “cross-over” to vote against Trump.  But when it came down to just MAGA-Republicans, it was “all Trump, all of the time”.  

If they didn’t go for Haley (or any of the other candidates), those MAGA-loyalists aren’t going to vote for a “No Labels” candidate.  So don’t expect a third party to make in-roads into the Trump vote.

Compromiser

That’s why Democrats are concerned about “No Labels”.  Regardless of all the propaganda about Biden being in the thrall of left-wing Progressives, the President is actually a moderate committed to legislative compromise.  Need proof:  look at the bipartisan border bill that was poised to pass the Senate and even the House.  Biden committed to signing it.  It took the direct intervention of Trump to force Republican legislators to turn against the bill that their own conservative member, Senator Langford of Oklahoma, authored.

Democrats are factional: that’s always been the nature of the modern party.  True progressives aren’t comfortable with Biden, a “compromiser” (that’s a bad word, I guess, right after being a politician).  But here’s the point – those progressives aren’t going to vote for a corporate No Labels candidate.  

So where will No Labels get their votes?  About thirty percent of Americans are “independent”, not aligned with either party.  Typically that’s where Presidential elections are won, or lost.  If 30% of the vote is monolithically MAGA-Republican, and 40% is Democratic; No Labels sees “fertile ground” in the remaining voters.   

Never Trumpers

 A percentage of those voters are ex-Republican “Never Trumpers”, like Ohio’s former Governor John Kasich or Utah’s Senator Mitt Romney.  They won’t vote for Trump, but they can’t stomach Joe Biden either.  They are likely No Labels voters, and probably didn’t vote for Joe Biden in 2020 either. 

And a percentage are far-left progressives.  They might vote for a Bernie Sanders’ Democrat, but are likely to choose a Jill Stein-type Green Party selection.  They certainly aren’t going to vote for an even more moderate No Labels candidate, though some may choose Biden in order to stop Trump.

So that leaves a “target” group of about 15% – far from the number needed to win. So what is the No Labels party goal?  If they can’t win, and if they can’t even make a dent, why are they running?  

Who’s the Horse

Before we answer that question, there’s an even more important one.  Who is the No Labels candidate?  Here, eight months before the election, we know who isn’t a No Labels candidate:  Joe Manchin (retiring), Larry Hogan (running for Senate), Chris Sununu (endorsed Trump), Chris Christie (committed to stopping Trump); all turned it down.  In fact, this week No Labels publicized that former Republican Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan is seriously considering accepting the nomination.   Geoff Duncan for President:  that’s going to drive folks to the polls, right?  (As a former campaign operative, he’s already got one problem – folks are going to look at “Geoff” and think that’s a silly way to say “Jeff”). 

Is No Labels going to impact the 2024 campaign?  Are they going to pull votes away from Biden, the “dark conspiracy theory” reason that will get Trump elected?  Are millions of votes going to run out and vote for Geoff so that don’t have to vote for Donald or Joe?  

Thoroughbreds

To run for President, like running in the Kentucky Derby, you’ve got to have a race horse.  Manchin, Hogan, Christie, even Haley would at least by a thoroughbred coming out of the gate.  But all of them see No Labels as a losing effort, not just for the Presidency, but for the nation.  And, whether you like the spelling of Geoff or not, former Lieutenant Governor Duncan “ain’t no thoroughbred”.  In fact, he’s not ever been on a real track.  

No Labels can’t find a horse to run in the race, in spite of all the “dark” money flowing into their coffers.  And, just like the Derby, no horse means no odds, and no race.  

Sorry Geoff, and No Labels.  You won’t even be a sideshow in 2024:  the year America determines the future of Democracy.

Come to the Light

Scary Movies

 I don’t watch scary movies.  It’s always been a “thing”.  I can trace it all back to one of my early memories.  I was just six years-old, watching a television show in black and white called The Outer Limits.  It was a science fiction show, and this episode was about  our earth invaded by an alien force.  The aliens were ants, big ants, maybe six or eight inches long ants.  And they’d crawl up the pants legs of the earthlings, creating searing agony with their bites.  The chewed their way to power.

I had nightmares for weeks. To this day, I occasionally wake myself up in the middle of the night.  My subconscious knows that the giant ant nightmare is coming, and it’s time to get up, take a walk, and find another “train of thought” to fall asleep to.  Oh, and shake out my pants legs.  

I’ve avoided scary movies ever since.  I haven’t seen the “classics”, the Halloween series, or Sigourney Weaver in Alien.  In fact, one of the only “horror” movies I sat through was called Poltergeist.  Four of us were on a summer road trip, driving a van across the country, from Ohio to Washington State to the California/Mexico border and back.  One night in Rapid City, South Dakota, my compatriots decided we were going to a horror movie.  No amount of, “I’ll just hang out in the bar” was enough to avoid the experience.  Luckily, we were all staying in one hotel room that night.  I still didn’t get much sleep.

Poltergeist

The movie was about a young girl, named Carol Ann. Her spirit was threatened  by evil.  The evil spirits wanted retribution – her home was built on a desecrated cemetery.   A  spiritualist was brought in to keep Carol Ann with the living, and she struggled against the evil spirits trying to drag her away.  The battle for Carol Ann’s spirit came down to “the light”, crossing over to the spirit world.  The Spiritualist said: “Carol Anne – listen to me. Do *not* go into the light. Stop where you are. Turn away from it. Don’t even look at it.”

The light was a ruse.  It seemed like the spiritual light to heaven, when in fact, it was the light to evil.  And even though I was terrified by the “horror”, I still got the point.  Sometimes, “the light” isn’t what it seems to be.  Sometimes, you need to turn away from the light.

 A Union of Light

I watched the State of the Union address last night, and the Republican response.  Listen, Joe Biden is no Barack Obama, he is solid “Joe” from Scranton, Pennsylvania.  He’s a plain spoken man. But he certainly enjoyed his eighty minutes in the limelight, giving as good as he got when the hecklers yelled from the crowd. (Remember when a Congressman yelled “liar” at Barack Obama? That shocked all of us; the decorum the State of the Union was broken.  Now, we were all waiting for it.  Our times are “a-changing”).  

Biden painted a picture of America on the way “up”, with the economy breaking record highs, inflation under control, violent crime going down and unemployment at all-time lows.  And he recognized that not everyone was sharing in the “wealth”, and laid out programs to make their lives better too.  

And the President gave us a clear view of how the United States would help restore order in the world, from backing Ukraine, strengthening NATO, and even building a seaport in Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid.  Like it or not, Biden offered America solutions for our problems.

Biden also explained America’s choice in 2024.  His message was stark:  we are choosing between a republic and oligarchy; democracy or authoritarianism.  There are, in fact, two lights drawing the American people in opposite directions.  

A Union of Dark

The difference between those two lights was dramatically (overly dramatic) emphasized by the Republican “retort” to the State of the Union. Alabama Senator Katie Britt delivered the speech from her literal “kitchen table”.  Her America is quite dark, overrun by illegal immigrants threatening mayhem at every turn.  In her America, it seems, that the average family huddles in prayer and fear around their kitchen table, looking for “the light” to lead them out of their torment.   And that light, to the Senator, is the twice-impeached, four-time indicted presumptive Republican Party nominee.  As Trump says, only he can fix it.  Now all he needs to do is say – come to the light.  

When we get past all the nonsense; worries about Joe’s clarity of thought, or physical ability to govern (despite the “Make America Great Again” Pac commercial), America is faced with a vision.  Is our Nation in an evil place, looking for the light and protection of Trump?  Or are we on the way up, to the better America that Joe Biden offers?

We need to choose – which light will we “come to”?

The Clubs Choose

The Rant

Here’s a short rant.  I’m tired of hearing “pundits” talk about how uneducated Americans are when it comes to government and politics.  I can tell you, for sure, that every kid who went to high school in the United States got a “government” or “civics” course, along with American History.  Every American public school kid was “exposed” to the structure of our government, the process of our elections, and even the function of political parties.  

Did they get it?  Do they remember it fifteen years later? That, I can’t tell you.  But the line I hear over and over again on the media is; “Well, we don’t teach civics anymore, so folks don’t know…”  To use the succinct but eloquent phrase of the  Marjorie Stoneman Douglas kids, “I call BS”.  Americans knew, and remember again when they need to.

Whew; got that off my chest. 

Parties

One of the harder concepts to teach in Government class is the four-part American Presidential election system.  It’s not just “an election”.  It’s a series of elections, caucuses, conventions, all leading to the major political parties choosing a candidate at their “big” convention.  Then it’s another election, but that election isn’t a simple “winner and loser” election.  It’s an election to choose “electors” to the Electoral College (that doesn’t even have a football team).  And, as January 6th, 2021 made it extremely clear, even winning the most electors isn’t really a guarantee.

But to get back to the primary process, it’s a difficult concept for students to get.  So it’s an election when everyone can vote, but they can only vote for the candidates in the party they choose to belong to.  And, if you’re not in a party, you can’t vote for those candidates.  But, in many states (like Ohio) you can switch parties by just asking for the other party’s ballot.  So it sounds complicated, really more complicated than it actually is.

Join the Club

So I would explain it like this:  the political parties are just clubs; clubs with a goal of running people for office.  The primaries are the “clubs” voting for which candidate will represent their club against the other club.  And only the “club” members can vote, that makes sense.  People who aren’t in the “club” shouldn’t have a say in who the “club” chooses.  So last night, “Super Tuesday”, was a whole bunch of state “clubs” choosing the candidate to represent their  state at the National club convention come July (Republican) or August (Democrat).  

Today, about 39% of voters are in the Democratic Club, and 29% are in the Republican Club (Ballotpedia).  That leaves 32% of American voters who are left out of the “club” selection process.  Since they aren’t members (however their state sets that up), they don’t get to choose.  And there’s one other point that’s important.  The “clubs” do the same things, and have similar elections – but they’re not the same size.  

Horse Race

Last night’s media coverage was naturally slanted towards the Republican “club” elections.  Of course it was.  The Republicans had a “contest”, Trump versus Haley.  And the Republicans had a question (answered now), who would their club choose.  That’s opposed to the other “club”, who had the incumbent President.  Biden was running essentially unopposed (sorry to point that out, obscure Congressman from Minnesota Mr. What’s-Your-Name??)  

The media, and the public, want a competition, a “horse race”.  There wasn’t really a horse race in the 2024 campaign on either side, but Nikki Haley tried to make one.  Last night we watched the Haley effort breakdown on the backstretch.  To push the horse race analogy to the limit:  their putting the tent up around the “Haley horse” on the backstretch right now.  They don’t shoot broken race horses anymore, they “euthanize” them quietly, on the track, under the tent, out of the view of the public.  

Haley’s candidacy ended last night, it will be put out of its misery today.

My Club’s Bigger than Theirs

But keep in mind, the Republican “Club” is significantly smaller than the Democratic “Club”.  What looks like an “even” horse race, isn’t, from the start.  If every Republican comes out and votes for Trump, it’s 29% of the vote.  If every Democrat votes for Biden, it’s 39%.  Trump needs to get the lion’s share of the “no-club” vote to get elected, almost two-thirds. Biden doesn’t need quite as many “no-clubs”,  about one-third.

The Presidential primary season ended last night – even though there will be more “club votes” on into June.  And there are important things happening in those primaries.  New Jersey, for example, will be choosing “club” candidates for the US Senate on the first Tuesday in June.  Six Democrats are lining up to try to follow Bob Menendez, the current Democratic Senator under multiple criminal indictments.  The two front runners, Congressman Andy Kim and the Governor’s wife, Tammy Murphy, are having a good “horse race”.  But as far as Trump and Biden are concerned, the “fight” for the convention is over.

Like it or not, as Julius Caesar would say, “Alea iacta Est”, “the die is cast”.  It’s the rematch of 2020, Biden v Trump, two old men vying for a job they’ve both done.   Trump has to overcome his smaller “club”.  Biden has to motivate his “club” to show up in November.  And both have to find ways to sway the “non-clubbers”.  Watch Biden start that motivation and persuasion tomorrow night.  It’s time for another one of those “Civics Class” moments – The State of the Union Address.  

Get your popcorn ready!!!!

Under Siege

Vicksburg

Warfare is often ugly; but seldom uglier than the form called “laying siege”.  A siege is not a battle, at least, not in the World War II, mobile armor sense.  I’m an old American History teacher and a Civil War “buff. So I look to Grant’s siege of the Confederate Army of Mississippi at Vicksburg for my example.  For forty-seven days, the Union Army surrounded Vicksburg, and controlled the Mississippi River above and below the town.  Confederate General Pemberton was unable to break his 43,000 troops out, and Grant’s 77,000 cut all supplies.

But it wasn’t just the Confederate soldiers who suffered in Vicksburg.  The 4,000 civilians, including some who were enslaved, were trapped along with the Confederate forces.  They not only endured the artillery barrages and the constant small arms fire, but they were starved as well.  When they ran out of regular meat, they ate horses, then dogs, then rats.  Pemberton had to consider the condition of his troops, but also those 4,000 civilians. He finally surrendered his forces and the city on July 4th, 1863.  With the fall of Vicksburg, the Confederacy lost the Mississippi River; and the breakaway South was split in two.

Rafah

What’s the difference between the siege of Vicksburg and the Israeli siege of Gaza today?  Like Grant’s Union forces, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) used overwhelming numbers to push Hamas forces into smaller and smaller sections of the region.  The problem for the IDF, is that they are unable to distinguish between the 2 million Palestinians who live in Gaza, and the 20,000 to 30,000 actual Hamas terrorists and their leaders “embedded” (hiding) among them.

Unlike Pemberton’s Confederates, Hamas is unconcerned about the condition of civilians.  In fact, Hamas welcomes the suffering.  It makes their position stronger in the world.  And, of course, Grant didn’t have the entire world watching the conditions in Vicksburg, the women and children hiding in caves as the artillery shells exploded, disease and death around every corner. But if he did, Grant would have placed the blame on the Confederates. He was willing to accept Pemberton’s surrender at any time.  

Israel is trying to place the blame on Hamas.  But the world sees something different.  We see the truly innocent children of Gaza starving to death.  And even though Hamas controls most of the information coming out of Rafah, the reality and scope of hundreds of thousands starving is evident.  

Responsibility

Perhaps the responsibility for the starving in Gaza should be on Hamas, but the world, rightly, says different.  And so the IDF, set to destroy every vestige of Hamas for the terror of October 7th, is forced to break the first “rule” of siege warfare:  don’t supply your enemy.    

Two hundred trucks a day were coming from Egypt to Israel, and then into Gaza.  The Gazan Police, a branch of Hamas, took  direct responsibility for distribution of aid.  But the IDF saw the police as “the enemy”, and so the trucks dwindled to less than fifty, to feed millions.  As John Wayne said:  “My fault, your fault, nobody’s fault”:  many are starving.  

The United States is pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to get more food into Gaza.  Netanyahu is trying to shift the blame to Hamas, just as Grant would shift the blame to Pemberton.  But in the eyes of President Biden, and much of the rest of the world, the fact that Hamas doesn’t care about its own citizens, doesn’t “absolve” Israel of responsibility.  And with the Gazan Police out of the equation, the few food convoys are targets, not just for thousands of starving families, but for Gazan street gangs who recognize that food is power.  And for Hamas, chaos is “good”.

Ramadan

It’s a setup for the kind of “food massacre” that happened the other day, when over one hundred Palestinians were killed, some by Israeli bullets, and some in the crush of a panicked crowd.  It puts the IDF right where Hamas wants them – in the spotlight of world opinion.

Meanwhile, the United States and other nations are air-dropping military rations (MRE’s – meals ready to eat) onto the beaches of Gaza.  There is no control over who gets the rations; and they are “a drop in the bucket”, maybe 100,000 meals to a starving population of at least 300,000.  But it’s something, and more air-drops are planned.  Some say those drops make the US look weak, unable to “force” their ally Israel to their will.  But the US is drawing a line:  starving the population is not acceptable, for either Hamas or Israel.  If you won’t do something about it, we will.  It places pressure on all sides to solve the problem.  

Israel publicly plans on ending the siege by destroying Hamas. The goal: destroy Hama’s leadership whatever the cost.

But there are ongoing  cease-fire talks: the United States, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and Hamas are negotiating in Cairo.  They are indirect.  The Hamas delegation talks to Qatari mediators, who bring proposals back and forth to the rest. The thought of Hamas and Israel sitting down together is too much to bear.

 And the high Islamic holiday of Ramadan begins next week.  Ramadan, “Honors the time when Allah, via the angel Gabriel, revealed the first verses of the Qur’an, the holy book of Islam, to a caravan trader named Muhammad (Almanac)”.  It is a holiday celebrating the founding of Islam, and to observe it, Muslims fast each day from dawn to dusk.  This year it lasts for a month.

For the people of Gaza, fasting is not a celebration, it’s a forced reality.  Hopefully Ramadan is the right time for all sides to stop bleeding, and start feeding.

Singing in the Tornado

This is another Sunday Story (and another dog story). No politics here, just a story of our life with five dogs!!

Dog Rehab

It’s been a long few weeks since our Lab had ACL knee surgery (Sad, Sad Boy).  It’s Atticus, the dog that’s allergic to everything (his special food is salmon and sweet potatoes), the Lab with anxiety issues, the sweet boy who can lose his mind in the wrong sequence of events.  So it shouldn’t be a surprise that his recovery is taking longer than possible.  Of course, his knee is infected, swelling up and keeping him up at night.  Of course, each week of infection stretches the time it will take to get him back to “normal” (or at least normal for him) now deep into April.  And of course, his first antibiotic was so powerful, Jenn and I had to wear gloves to handle to pills.

So he didn’t eat for a few days (except for treats and carrots).  And, I’m sure, the swelling was painful.  Even the heavy-handed menu of painkillers and anti-anxiety drugs didn’t last the scheduled twelve hours.  It’s Atticus; we get eight hours for eight pills at best.

We moved him out of Jenn’s office and into the family room.  At least he isn’t so isolated, and we aren’t either.  Oh, and if he’s awake, he needs one of us around.  “I don’t feel right” is his most popular whine, followed quickly by “where are you?” So Jenn and I take turns sleeping on the couch, being there for the two in-the-morning walk,  or  when the drugs wear off too soon.

So we’re all tired.  Not just Atticus, Jenn and I; but the other four dogs.  Recovery is tough on them too.  

Full Belly and Sleep

But Wednesday night, after Atticus ate for the first time in a week,  everyone went peacefully to sleep.  Well, after the 2:30 am walk.  Atticus had to go for the first time in days – no waiting for that.  At 5:00 the other dogs went out per their own schedule, and then we all were snoozing deeply again.  Maybe we’d make it to 7:00?

The alert siren on my phone went off at 5:45.  I could hear Jenn’s phone going off in the bedroom too:  TORNADO WARNING for Licking County.   And then the local siren, just down the street, started its mournful wail.

Now all the dogs were fired up – waking from a sound sleep to the phones and then the siren.  But Lou, our rescue from Louisiana, has a special affinity for sirens.  It’s his “Call of the Wild”  moment, when his inner wolf gains expression.  Lou picked up the tune, howling at full volume.  It’s a hauntingly beautiful wail from the bottom of his soul.  You can feel the ages of wolf-to-dog fall away: this is the canine primeval.

Well of course, our little one, CeCe, had to join in.  She’s doesn’t have an inner wolf, but she can sure bark the loudest in the pack.  Keelie, the mother dog of us all, worriedly watched her friends, and Buddy, our oldest dog, went to get under the bed. It’s too much noise for him.  Atticus drowsily opened one eye.

Tornado Scofflaw

I turned on the TV, saw the local radar, and went to wake Jenn (yep, she can sleep though it all).  “Honey, the radar says a tornado could be here in about five minutes – time to get up.”

Now I’m a notorious scofflaw when it comes to tornado warnings.  In fact, I’m one of those track coaches/officials who stands out in the field and watches the weather come in while all the kids go into the school for protection.  It’s just a thing – I love weather, I’ve camped through a tornado and watched the derecho tear down a forest around us.  But I do have a thing about tornadoes in the dark, and it wasn’t dawn yet in this “freak” (or climate changed) February storm.

So Jenn was shocked and concerned when I said we needed to get to the bathrooms.  We live in a ranch-style house, no basement.  The two rooms in the center core of the house are the bathrooms, both backing up to an “exterior wall” that now is in the middle of our home.  And, the addition that put the wall in the middle, also put a “double roof” over both bathrooms, even more protection.

But they aren’t giant sized bathrooms, just regular-sized.  There’s not enough room for Jenn and me, and five dogs.  Besides, Lou isn’t sure what to do with an injured Atticus, and Atticus is intimidated, knowing he’s sub-par with Lou.  Jenn took Atticus and Buddy (not happy to get out from under the bed) in one bathroom, I took Lou, Keelie and CeCe in the other.  

Waiting for a Train

We hung out for about twenty minutes.  The dogs kept looking at me, wondering what this new game was all about.  I was watching TV on my phone, trying to detect what was going to happen by examining the local radar.  It was easier in the old days with just green, orange, red and occasionally purple cloud splotches. Now there’s digitally generated map of green and red slashes, showing wind shears in the atmosphere.   When the rectangles of color are side-by-side, it means that a tornado is likely.  

So we sat, waiting for the power to go out, waiting for the sirens to stop, waiting for the freight train sound of an impending tornado strike.

We got lucky.  Friends only a few miles away actually were hit be a tornado; trees down, roofs shredded, power lines webbing the streets.  But here, the urban camouflage passed us by, headed east towards Newark and the rest of the state.  It’s always odd to listen to the Columbus-based TV weather-people, so relieved when the storm passes urban Columbus by.  Downtown’s relief means someone east is now under the gun, with consequences just as serious.  “Oh, the storm is out to Zanesville”, isn’t a relief if you live in Zanesville.

And we did get a late-morning nap, the dogs spread about the floor, Atticus in his crate, and Jenn and I in our “chairs”.  The storm front dropped the temperatures from May back to February.  Now we’re warm besides the fire.  Maybe Lou’s dreaming about that first wolf, the one that came in from the cold to a human camp just to get warm.

The Sunday Story Series

No Good Options

No Brainer

The twice-impeached, four time indicted, ex-President of the United States is looking for a “get out of jail free” card.  His lawyers are claiming, as President and former President, anything he did is immune from criminal prosecution. The only exception: he is impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate.  

His claim should be a “no brainer”.  In a Nation founded on equality before the legal bar, no one, not even the President or former President, is above the law.  That was considered “Black Letter Law”, a “given” of American jurisprudence.  If he really shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue, he could (and should) be brought to justice.

It’s one of those “norms” that Americans accepted for two-hundred and thirty years of history.  But, as in so many other areas of our political life, Trump ignored the “norms”. He went over the guardrails that informally governed the actions of our leaders.  So, common sense is out the window, and the Courts are faced with a “novel” argument. An individual with the ability to take any course of action, unfettered by law.

The Washington DC Court of Appeals underlined the absurdity of this argument.  One of the judges asked Trump’s attorney, if a President sent Seal Team Six to assassinate a political opponent, would that action be immune from criminality?  The attorney stepped right into the trap.  His argument:  unless that President was impeached and convicted, he could NEVER be held accountable for using government forces to kill off his opponent.  Sounds a lot like Putin in Russia, doesn’t it.

Frivolous Argument

Trump’s attorneys are making the immunity argument in two different cases:  the Washington DC case for interfering with the Congress (January 6th), and the Fort Pierce mishandling of classified documents case (Mara Lago).  That this argument is being made in two different Federal appellate jurisdictions, District of Columbia and the Atlanta, is important.

So even though it may be a frivolous argument, it’s one that the Courts have to deal with.  In the January 6thcase, Judge Chutkan went into detail to deny the claim.  The Trump lawyers, following the now-familiar Trump tactic of delay, delay, delay; immediately appealed Chutkan’s ruling to the Appellate Court. After hearing arguments, a three-judge panel of the Court wrote a detailed opinion denying it.

Trump did NOT appeal that ruling to the Supreme Court.  He did ask the Supreme Court to delay Judge Chutkan’s trial until the full Appellate Court heard the case.  In his response to the Trump appeal, Special Prosecutor Jack Smith asked the Supreme Court to deny the claim.  He added that if they chose to act on the claim, they should act on the whole issue (rather than send it to the full Appellate Court).  And if they did that, Smith also asked that the Chutkan trial be allowed to continue.

A Clock and a Calendar

There is a clock running on the January 6th case.  It’s simple math:  Judge Chutkan promised both sides three months to prepare for the case.  Jack Smith’s team said it will take close to three months to actually try the case in front of a Jury.  And the Department of Justice has a policy: no Federal actions within sixty days of an election.  So, counting back from the Presidential election of 2024, two months before election day is September 5th.  Three months before that (the trial) is June 5th.  Three months before that (the prep) is March 5th – that’s next week.

None of those dates are “set in stone”.  The Judge could give less time to prepare, and the Department of Justice can “flex” their sixty day rule if the trial in imminent.  But legitimately, the calendar pages are turning on the January 6th case, and time is definitely running out.

Normal Process

The Supreme Court could have accepted the Appellate Court ruling. Or it could still let the case go to trial in Judge Chutkan’s Court.  Or they could decide to hear the case, but on an expedited basis, with hearings in a couple of weeks and a decision soon after.  But they didn’t do that.

Instead the Supreme Court set a hearing date of April 28th.  That’s just the oral arguments; there’s no reason to believe the Court will decide the case soon after that.  Traditionally, cases heard in April aren’t “decided” until the end of June, the end of the Supreme Court’s term.  And since the Court didn’t allow Judge Chutkan to proceed  with the case, their decision likely means that Donald J Trump will not face a trial for his actions around January 6th; at least until the Presidential election is over.

First Impression

There are few areas of our Government more secret than the decision-making process of the Supreme Court.  All we can do is speculate why the Court reached their conclusions.  So here’s some speculations:  my guesses about the inscrutable judicial machinations of our highest Court.

When the Court receives an appeal (like Trump’s) it takes four Justices to agree for the Court to accept the case.  So we do know one thing for sure – at least four of the nine, want to hear this case.   Before we get to the “nefarious” reasons why the Court  might act this way, let’s look at “legal” reasons that all nine Justices, both the Conservative majority and the Liberal minority, might agree that they “have” to hear it.

First, it is a case of “first impression”.  This improbable scenario, a President accused of trying to overthrow the results of a general election, strikes at the very heart of the American experiment in Democracy; the peaceful transition of power.  The Justices may feel it is a case of national import which deserves the full attention of our highest judicial body.

Dual Interpretations

Second, if the Court just affirmed the District of Columbia Appellate Court decision (what Prosecutor Smith asked), that decision does not bind the Atlanta Appellate district.  So the Court may be looking at a possible conflict of interpretation between two Appellate Courts; different rulings, one in DC, and one in Atlanta.  Better to step in and resolve the issue once and for all, for every Federal Court in the country, right now.

Third, while the Court is aware of the “clock and the calendar”, it’s not a clock or calendar of their doing.  In the end, the Merrick Garland Department of Justice delayed for almost two years before they brought Federal charges against Donald Trump.  Don’t like the calendar:  blame Garland, not the Federal Court system.

Bad Intentions

Those aren’t the reasons my “progressive” friends are thinking about.  The worst case scenario:  at least one Justice is positively considering the merits of Presidential immunity.  In fact, maybe one or more actually agree with Trump, and the whole Seal Team Six scenario.  Or, like many other facets of this incredibly conservative Court, maybe they really do think that the Congress must first impeach and convict, before Presidential “immunity” is removed.  I can hear the argument now:  the House did impeach, but the Senate failed to convict on the January 6th issues; why should Courts intervene when the Congress didn’t?

Or perhaps some of the Justices are falling in with the Trump strategy of “delay, delay, delay”.  If so, they found the perfect way to do so – handling the Trump case as a “normal” case in the Court, with hearings, briefs and counter-briefs, majority decisions and dissenting opinions.  All of those actions require the one thing Jack Smith doesn’t have – time.

Pass the Buck

But here’s what I think is the most likely scenario.  A coalition of Justices around the Chief Justice, John Roberts, want to keep the Court out of the Presidential election.  The Supreme Court lost a lot of public esteem in the past decades, and it can be traced straight to the “political” decision in the Bush v Gore case, when five Republican Justices decided in a way that gave the Presidency to Republican George W Bush.  The Chief Justice doesn’t want the Supreme Court, or any Federal Court, seen as putting their “thumb on the scale” of this November’s election.  

Sure, ultimately the Court will decide against Trump. There really is no “get out of jail free” card for current or former Presidents.  But they will do so in a way to keep Federal Courts from convicting Trump until after the Nation decides who the next President will be.   A “national jury” will make the decision, 160 million citizens instead of twelve.  If the country chooses Biden, then the Trump trials will go forward.  If they choose Trump, then the jury on this case, “is in”.  

Either way, it’s not the Court’s fault.

My Little Town

Thanks Paul Simon and Art Garfunkel – for a lifetime of amazing music like My Little Town

Tenure

I live in Pataskala, Ohio, but I am not a native “Pataskalan”. I didn’t go to public school here, and my ancestors didn’t own a farm or a store nearby.  Nope, I’m a long-term interloper.  I first arrived when I was twenty-one years old, a fuzzy haired student-teacher from nearby Denison University.  The only thing I knew about Pataskala was that a charity food and clothing center, a place called LEADS, was located here.  It’s where Denison students donated their clothes and excess dorm room furniture.

Now, I know that LEADS isn’t even in Pataskala, it’s in Summit Station, an even smaller town nearby.  But, when Pataskala became a city in the 1990’s, Summit was incorporated.  So while LEADS wasn’t in Pataskala then, it is now.

And I later learned that the high school where I student-taught, and then got my first and only teaching job, served Pataskala, but wasn’t actually in Pataskala. It was in the nearby township of Etna.   Etna itself was a village on State Route 310 between State Route 40 and I-70. It was surrounded by cornfields and cow pastures.  Now, it’s one “distribution center” after another, lined up for miles along the National Road and spreading out north and south along the adjoining country lanes.  

Build in America

I came here in 1978, and except for a brief six-month sojourn to the University of Cincinnati Law School, I’ve stayed.  That’s forty-six years; watching a farm community turn into a suburb, and now into a mix of industry, housing. The few remaining farmers are left tilling the land that’s been in their families for a century or more.

I’ve been a teacher, a coach, and the High School Dean of Students.  I’ve volunteered with the Scouts, and worked to get school levies passed.  When I now substitute at the high school, I’m that old guy who can tell stories about “our” school from nearly a half-century before.  But to “native” Pataskala, I’m still that new guy from Denison over in Granville.

All of that history is to prepare you for what’s  happening now.  As industry arrives all over; giant Amazon warehouses and the American Electric Power’s storage and training facility; there’s one business creating a local uproar.  One of the giant buildings is a company called “Illuminate USA”.  It’s one of the very few US manufacturers of solar panels.  

Like Intel’s  giant computer chip facility just a few miles to the North, Illuminate USA is entering a market dominated by foreign manufacturers.  With computer chips, Taiwan makes 60% of the worlds semi-conductors, and 90% of the advanced ones.  The Intel plant is part of the US Plan (Joe Biden’s plan) to bring that critical industry back to the US.  78% of world solar panels are made in China.  So Illuminate USA is also part of the “build in America” plan.  And it’s not just about “jingoism”; the Covid pandemic showed how vulnerable America was to specific international product shortages.  So better to make it here, than depend on getting it from there, wherever there is.

China, China, China

US companies are highly invested in China.  The computer I’m on right now (Apple MacBook Pro), the phone in my pocket (I-Phone SE), the shirt on my back, all were produced in China or have Chinese parts.  And companies like McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken, and of course, Coca Cola are heavily invested in China.

Illuminate USA is a United States company, but has connections to China.  It makes sense:  China makes most of the solar panels in the world, and has manufacturing expertise.  Instead of “reinventing the wheel”,  Illuminate USA is building on Chinese technology to produce solar panels here in Pataskala, Ohio.  It’s what any reasonable company developing a new industrial process would do.

There are forces in America who are opposed to any connections to China.  They describe it in lurid, 1950’s terms:  Red China, Communist China, “The Red Menace”.  And there’s big money behind them; the conservative think tanks like the Claremont Institute and Center for Strategic International Studies, all sponsored by right-wing billionaires.  And while their pseudo-academic “credentials” look good, the reality is they are the same right-wing extremists that are polluting much of the American discourse.

Red Scare

They are good at stirring things up. The “money” groups sponsor a local front of “proud Pataskalans” who are “standing against Communist aggression” here in my little town.  They call themselves “Not In Pataskala”. 

Keep in mind, “my little town” is already “Red”, Republican “Red”.  In 2020 Joe Biden got less than 35% of the vote. But the city leaders, the Mayor and Council members, are “regular Red” Republicans, not necessarily MAGA-REPUBLICANS.  But the “Not in Pataskala” crowd, the “citizens group” with the expensive webpage, are going after those leaders, for “…allowing Communism to creep into our town”.  Notably, the Illuminate USA factory building is located on the “Red Chip Parkway”, and will be right next door to the land purchased by that “woke-ist corporation of all”, Microsoft.

There is a long-standing battle in Pataskala.  The transition of the past half-century has been from rural to industrial-suburban.  There are traffic lights and fast food restaurants, bars and housing developments where corn and soybeans used to grow.  The critical issue is summed up in one word:  “change”.   Many Pataskalans, even newcomers who weren’t here in the “good old days”, long for the “rural life”.  It’s got nothing to do with “Red Chinese Communism”.

The local Mayor does his best to sooth fears,  showing up at every public event, and publishing sunset pictures from his front porch.  And the “Not in Pataskala” crowd really ain’t so crowded.  It’s all just another sign of our polarized society; vulnerable to “Red Scare” tactics that cherry-picks “facts” to generate fear.   Frankly, most Pataskalans just watch “the show”; some in support, some in disgust, and some just waiting for the “car wreck”.  

It’s our little town, Pataskala;  a microcosm of America.

US and Israel: A Contrast in Politics

Politics

Israeli and American politics are different.  Israel has a parliamentary system of government.  Their citizens vote for Knesset members (the legislature); choosing from various political factions.  Then those factions join with each other to find a majority. The process is dominated by one of the two major movements. Either it’s the religious, conservative and militant Likud Party, or the more secular, moderate, and willing to negotiate “centrists” Parties (Yesh Atid, National Unity, Labor). A government is formed, and the senior members of the “executive” are chosen. Elections in Israel are narrowly decided, with splits among progressives, moderates and conservatives, and secular versus religious.  The citizens of Israel are divided as well, with strong factions on both sides.

Israel is like the United States, which, since the 2016 Presidential election, is also closely divided.  Currently, we are a nation that’s 40-40-20.  Forty percent of Americans are going to vote for a MAGA candidate. Forty percent would literally vote for anyone else but the MAGA candidate. And a slim twenty percent determine the outcome, time and time again.  And it’s not only in Presidential elections.  The  US Congress is just as evenly split. The Senate Democrats control by only a couple of votes. And the House of Representatives Republicans have power by a narrow seven vote majority (out of 428 filled seats). 

Zionists

Israel is a homeland for Jewish people.  It is essential to their national being: a country founded by Zionists who believe that Israel is the holy land given to the Jews by God.  It was ratified by the United Nations, as a sanctuary for European Jews who survived the Holocaust.  But even then, the founders of Israel created a secular government. It was not a theocracy, but a democracy that recognized its religious origins.

There is a strong movement in Israel to give more power to the religious fundamentalists, the Ultra- Orthodox Jews.  Their views are already influencing the government to increase Jewish settlements in the West Bank, Palestinian territory.  Building settlements “plants the flag” in land that would be a part of a new Palestinian state, if the “two-state solution” were ever  implemented.  Almost half a million Jews are living in the West Bank now, with an additional 220,000 living around East Jerusalem.  Those half-million are intentionally “putting down roots”, in order to make a full separation into two different nations more difficult.

And Israel has a full “religious court” system, operated by Orthodox rabbis. It determine’s civil issues such as marriage, divorce, and child custody.  There is no such thing as a “civil” marriage in Israel, (though there are Islamic, Christian, and Druze Courts).   The fundamental issue of the Israeli democracy is religious.  If there is a “one state” solution, then mostly Islamic Palestinians are equal in number to mostly Jewish Israelis.  There is an inherent conflict in a nation founded in secular Judaism, and still governed in part by religious law. Either Israel is a democracy with a “two state” solution, or a nation where a “democratic minority” rules over an occupied majority in one state.

Christian Nationalism

There is a rising Christian Nationalist movement in the United States, encroaching on the secular philosophy of the US Constitution. (In contradiction of the Christian Nationalist claim that the United States is founded on Judeo-Christian principles, in fact, the founding fathers specifically kept religion out of the Constitution and its Amendments.)

The most recent example of this is the Alabama State Supreme Court determination that fertilized eggs for Invitro-Fertilization are human beings.  The Court opinion directly invoked the deity in its opinion:  “All human beings bear the image of God, and their lives cannot be destroyed without effacing his glory,” (WAPO).  Religious justification for civil law rulings is not common in the United States, and the Alabama Supreme Court opinion demonstrates its rising power (as does the current makeup of the US Supreme Court). 

Christian Nationalists see the “establishment clause” of the First Amendment (“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishing religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof”) as not applying to their version of Christianity.  They see the United States as a “Christian Country” (their “Christianity”) that tolerates other religions, rather than a secular nation that treats all religions dispassionately. 

Revolution

Politics is often polarizing.  Passionate political views, whether they are about the economy, foreign policy, or the so-called “wedge” issues that are used to drive voter turnout, is the nature of democracies.  And religion has always been a driving influence to conflict.  The seeming inability of humans to believe in a deity, and allow others to believe in a different deity or none at all, drives us to conflict all of the time.

And now we see the worst of it all; politics and religion mixing to create a “devil’s brew” of conflict.  It’s a foundational issue of  Israel, and it’s a growing problem in American life as well.  What once were political issues, like education, immigration, and medical care; are now phrased in religious terms.  Even some speak in terms of “the end of American democracy”; to be replaced by a Christian Nationalist philosophy.

“Welcome to the end of democracy,” Posobiec said, also referring to the Capitol riots. “We are here to overthrow it completely. We didn’t get all the way there on January 6, but we will endeavor to get rid of it and replace it with this right here.” Posobiec then held up his fist, and added: “All glory is not to government. All glory to God.” Some people in the crowd responded with applause.  (Newsweek).

To quote Maya Angelou – When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.

Truth or Consequences

Liar, Liar

It’s a town still located on the “high plains” of Eastern New Mexico. Or,  it was a game show your grandparents (my parents) watched on television.   But the term “truth or consequences” has a simple meaning:  tell the truth, or suffer the consequences of your lies.

Truth or Consequences used to be a bedrock of American politics.  Much like the Lincolnesque phrase about fooling some of the people, some of the time; while a politician might get short-term gains from lying, ultimately the truth would win out, and the liar wouldn’t.  But in our “post-truth” political era, the consequences of not telling the truth seems to have little impact on American politics today.  You can take that in two different ways.   One is that old joke: “You know a politician is lying when their mouth is moving”.  It’s a cynical outlook; they all lie, all the time, so don’t believe any politician; even the ones that agree with you.

Or you might believe there no longer is a single political “truth”, and that “fact” is whatever fits your current political proclivity.  That way, you can only listen, read, and immerse yourself in those that agree with your view; and shut off any information to the contrary as being “political horse puckey!!”

But sometimes, like the Eastern sun cutting through the dust rising off the New Mexico plains, a truth blazes across the silos of information.  And like any good story, the truth of this one should bring consequences to those politicians who depend on the lie.

Ukrainian Corruption

 It starts in 2015, when then-Vice President Joe Biden was given the “portfolio” to deal with Ukraine by President Obama.  The United States wanted to support the nation and particularly support their breakaway from Russian sponsorship.  In the “Revolution of Dignity” in 2014 Ukraine declared independence from Russian influence. Russia responded by taking the strategic Crimean Peninsula and Eastern Ukraine with military force, the beginning of the current Ukrainian conflict.

But, even severed from Russia, much of the Ukrainian government was corrupt. It didn’t matter whether they supported Ukrainian independence, or wanted to remain in the Russian sphere of influence.  You might remember that the last Russian supported President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, fled a decadent palace with; “…a bowling center, swimming pool, super-modern boxing ring, tennis courts, massage rooms, therapeutic baths, cryo sauna, salt-cave, and other facilities” (Mezhyhirya).  He’s the one that employed the future Trump Campaign Chairman, Paul Manafort.

Biden encouraged Ukrainians to clean-up their government by prosecuting corrupt officials.  When a US aid package to Ukraine came up, Biden used that cash to leverage Ukrainian leaders to get rid of a corrupt prosecutor and appoint a new one.  Biden actually made the comment that either they got rid of the old prosecutor, or the US would not provide the one billion dollars in promised aid.

Russian Fable

Russian Intelligence  specializes in mis-information.   They take the facts of a story, then misdirect conclusions to further their own policy goals.  By 2019, it was clear that Russia’s goals were advanced by the then-President of the United States.  Donald Trump was shaking the foundations of NATO, the major alliance protecting Eastern Europe.  Trump envisioned foreign policy as a series of bilateral transactions, summed up best by the phrase:  “…what have you done for me lately”.  

The long-term, carefully crafted American foreign policy of world alliances protecting against Russian (and Chinese) aggressions was at risk.  And the chaos that ensued played perfectly into Putin’s hands.  So when it became clear that the main opponent to Trump in 2020 was Joe Biden, Russian intelligence went to work.

And Biden did have a vulnerability, a son who clearly used the Biden name to advance his own financial well-being.  And, of course, there was the cocaine habit.  Hunter Biden was contracted by a Ukrainian firm, Burisma, to represent their interests in the United States.  The Biden family name certainly helped.

Creating “Facts”

All of those are facts.  And it didn’t take much to twist those facts into Russian misinformation.  Vice President Biden didn’t have the prosecutor removed because of corruption.  He did it to protect his son from criminal charges.  And Burisma didn’t just hire Hunter, they paid the Vice President himself to influence US policy, perhaps while he was still in office.

Trump was searching for “proof” of this misinformation, when he made the “perfect” phone call to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, the subject of Trump’s first impeachment.  Rudy Giuliani went to Ukraine before the 2020 election, to find the source, the “star witness” to the phantom Biden criminality.  And he found him, a dual Israeli-American citizen with the perfect “James Bond” spy name, one that would make Albert Broccoli himself proud:  Alexander Smirnov.

Giuliani’s own “henchmen”, Lev and Igor, warned him that Smirnov was a Russian plant.  But Smirnov’s “facts” were too good to pass up:  supposedly each Biden was given $5 million to protect Burisma.  And then, out of “nowhere”, Giuliani obtained a laptop with Hunter’s whole sordid private life on video.  Some of the emails, with a little “stretching”, seemed to confirm Smirnov’s story.  

Rudy couldn’t get the Trump Justice Department to touch it.  They recognized that it had the imprimatur of Russian intelligence.  And after the 2020 election passed, and the Insurrection occurred, Smirnov’s story faded away.

Impeach Biden

That is, until the MAGA-Republicans narrowly gained a majority in the House of Representatives in 2022.  They came in with a goal:  do to Biden what the 2018 House did to Trump, impeachment.  So all they had to do was find “facts” to fit their goal.  And Smirnov’s Russian fairy tale exactly fit their bill.

The Director of the FBI warned them; Smirnov was an undependable source, probably tainted with Russian money.  But the committee Chairman, Comer and Jordan; like Trump himself and Giuliani, found the story to good to pass up (it should have been too good to be true).

They staked their Congress, the 118th, on impeaching Joe Biden.  And they staked their impeachment on Alexander Smirnov.

This week, the Republican Special Prosecutor, David Weiss, appointed to investigate and prosecute Hunter Biden; arrested Mr. Smirnov.  He is charged with making false statements while an FBI informant.  Smirnov himself admitted during questioning to having contact with “high level” Russian intelligence officials.

The story that Trump, Giuliani, Comer and Jordan couldn’t resist was a Russian plant. The warnings of Republicans Bill Barr and Chris Wray, and the current Department of Justice, were ignored.  The truth is, that this current House leadership wanted to impeach Biden so badly, the bought into a Russian fable.

We will soon see if there really are consequences to that truth.

By a Thread

CNN

Since October 2023, the beginning of the fiscal year, the Army has spent over $430 million on various operations, including training Ukrainian troops, transporting equipment, and US troop deployments to Europe. “We’re basically taking it out of hide in the Army,” a senior Army official told CNN.

So far, that bill has been paid from the Army’s Europe and Africa Command. Without a 2024 budget approved by Congress, and without additional funding specifically for Ukraine, the command has roughly $3 billion to pay for $5 billion of operations costs, a second senior Army official explained. That includes not only the operations related to Ukraine support — training and ferrying weapons and equipment to Poland and Ukraine — but other operations for the US command throughout Europe and Africa. (CNN).

Burning

There’s an apocryphal tale about Roman Emperor Nero – that as the city of Rome caught fire, he played a violin.  Thus was created the phrase, “He fiddled while Rome burned”.  Whether Nero did that or not, the saying has come to describe anyone or group that allows a crisis to go by without trying find a solution, usually to a “bad end”. 

Here in the United States, we are fiddling away.  Well, maybe not all of us, in fact, not even the majority of us.  Most of the  US government, the Congress and even the House of Representatives would prefer action to “fiddling”.  But those that have the power to set the agenda for the House, the Speaker and his leadership team, seemed determine to allow Ukraine to “burn”, to fall to the Russian invaders, rather than step in and support their just battle.

No Man’s Land

Ukraine isn’t asking for direct military intervention.  They actually have the strategic situation well in-hand.  They’ve held off the Russian invaders for two full years, driving back into the territories Russia “annexed” nine years ago.  In fact, Ukraine was poised to drive Russia out of all occupied territories.  But the Ukrainian offensive stalled, stopped by the greatest concentration of land mines the world has ever seen.  And so, instead of a World War II battle of movement and strategy, this struggle has become a World War I battle of attrition and stalemate.

In World War I, the battle over “No Man’s Land” lasted for almost four years.  Both sides poured massive amounts of blood and treasure into maintaining that stalemate.  It nearly bankrupted Germany; France and Great Britain weren’t very far behind.  And an entire generation of leaders was left mangled in the mud-filled craters of France.

Ukraine and Russia are in a similar situation.  Russia, in spite of its relatively weak economic standing in the world, has resources to overwhelm Ukraine,  given time.  Ukraine, on the other hand, has the determination to drive Russia from much of their national soil, as long as they have the weaponry and supplies.

No Brainer

And that’s where the United States comes in.  Sure, part of it is the moral obligation of the world’s most visible democracy helping defend against an autocratic invader.  But there is a much more self-serving goal for Americans.  Russia represents one of the two preeminent threats to democracy and world stability.  The Russian military can be worn down: leaders, supplies, and hundreds of thousands of soldiers lost on the open plains of Ukraine.  The US can weaken a major world opponent.  And it doesn’t cost American lives.

It does require American treasure.  Just as Ronald Reagan doubled the US Government deficit to drive the Soviet Union into bankruptcy; the United States, for a much smaller cost, can dissipate Russian wealth and might.  

To what end?  Putin has made it clear that his goal is to rebuild the Soviet Empire.  It’s likely a “binary choice”:  support Ukraine now, or fight, with real American troops, in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland later.   It’s a “no brainer”, a decision that takes little intellect or nuanced understanding to make.  

But here we are, fiddling away. 

Northern Christian White Alliance 

What’s even scarier; it’s not just about keeping Biden from getting a “win”; or the 2024 Presidential election, or satisfying the ravenous political appetite of Donald Trump.  Underneath the raw politics is an ideology, expressed most clearly by former Trump advisor (and future Federal inmate?) Steve Bannon.   He believes in a world of the “great Northern, Christian, White Alliance”; a confederation of two autocratic nations, the United States and Russia; against the great “brown masses” of the rest of the world; and of course, China.  Bannon wants an alliance with Russia, and allies let other allies do whatever the hell they want.  If Putin wants Eastern Europe, so be it, and NATO obligations be damned.

Political Courage

We are fiddling away, but we are, willfully, allowing an extreme ideology take hold.  Put it to a vote, and a bipartisan majority of the House would join the Senate and supporting Ukraine (and Israel, and Taiwan, and even make changes at the Southern Border),  But the incredibly narrow majority of Speaker Mike Johnson, and his absolute desire to keep his job, is preventing our government from acting.  

It’s not just about the Ukrainian dead.  And it’s not just about 2024.  It’s about the future world “order”.  

There’s a way to stop the fiddling.  An arcane parliamentary maneuver, a “discharge petition”, will get the job done.  But it will take something in short supply in 2024 America, a few Republican Congressmen with courage to stand up to the MAGA majority. 

The fate of our future world is hanging by a thread.  Some three Republican Congressmen will decide what happens next. 

Ukraine Crisis

Down At the Crossroads

With a nod to Mr. Clapton

A Russian Moon

Wednesday was crazy.  Mike Turner, Dayton’s Congressman and the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, leaked  Russian plans for putting nuclear weapons in space.  It brings back the famous Lyndon Johnson quote from the early days of the 1960’s “Space Race” (and the movie The Right Stuff): 

“I do not believe that this generation of Americans is willing to resign itself to going to bed each night by the light of a Communist moon”.

If not a “Communist” moon, how about a Russian nuclear weapon, orbiting earth.

That’s the vision that Mike Turner wanted Americans to see, even though both President Biden and National Security Advisor Sullivan painted Russian plans as more aspirational than real.  In fact, Turner wasn’t even briefed on those plans, yet.  And the Kansas City shootings at the Super Bowl celebration took over the headlines.

So why is Turner, known as a stalwart member of the senior House leadership, “flipping cars ”?  Perhaps he’s trying to make the point:  Russia is a threat now.  Keeping the Russian military in a long, men-and-materiel sucking war in Ukraine is a good thing for the United States.  For just a “little” treasure, and no American blood, we can sap Russian strength.

Get Trump Elected

The Senate passed an Israel/Taiwan/Ukraine military aid bill.  Speaker Johnson in the House claims that he will not allow that bill on the floor for a vote, where it would certainly pass with support from all of the Democrats, and many Republicans.  Johnson is under pressure from the MAGA-Trump camp to deny-deny-deny any action that might be seen as a “Biden Win”.  Long term policy isn’t a factor anymore; it’s about keeping Biden down so Trump might do better in November’s election.

The Speaker controls the agenda (the greatest power of his office). Sure, there is an arcane parliamentary move to circumvent his authority, the “discharge petition”.   A majority of House members can demand a bill come to the floor without the Speaker’s approval (after thirty days).  But it will require at least a couple of Republicans to stand against the Speaker, and more importantly, Trump and his MAGA-caucus.  And that hasn’t happened in a while.

But with all the worry about Ukraine, and deeper concern about what China will try to do to Taiwan, there is an even more important issue.  The United States is at a crossroads, and not just Biden versus Trump, or Democrats versus MAGA-Republicans, or even the existential crisis of American government.  We are also at a crossroads of world authority.

Woodrow Wilson

At the end of World War I, American President Woodrow Wilson led the US delegation to the Versailles peace conference.  Wilson had a world vision, where there would be less warfare.  He wanted to allow ethnic groups to have their own nations.  Wilson’s world had an international governing body, the League of Nations, to act as the referee when international conflict arose. And Wilson had the Fourteen Points of human rights, an aspiration for a better world.

And even though the victorious nations of Europe were more interested in getting treasure in the form of reparations from the defeated powers, they were willing to humor Wilson.  The American thumb on the scale helped tip the balance of war in their favor: they owed him that.

But they weren’t committed to Wilson’s vision, and as it turned out, only he truly was.  When the US Senate refused to ratify the peace treaty, and kept the United States out of the League of Nations; the dream of world peace soon went by the wayside.  America isolated itself behind “Fortress America” of the Atlantic and Pacific.  World War II wasn’t the “fault” of the United States, but it could have been prevented by the United States.  It’s the lesson that Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and the American leadership learned.

Pax Americana

So America took the lead after World War II, now clearly the military and economic power in the world (and Oppenheimer’s addition:  the US had the only nuclear weapons).  Not only did we sponsor the United Nations, but we led a series of alliance systems throughout the world.  The most important of those was (and is) NATO, the alliance system designed to offset the power of the then-Soviet Union. 

Like him or not, Ronald Reagan “won” the Cold War.  He did it by forcing the Soviet Union to try to match US defense spending.  The US spent six percent of Gross Domestic Product on the military, but to match it, the Soviets were forced to spend over twenty percent of theirs.  The Soviet Union fell during the George HW Bush administration, and Russia has been a mess ever since; a kleptocracy, as state owned industries were “privatized”, often for kopecks on the ruble (pennies on the dollar).  And the kleptocrats found a “defender” who “legitimized” their money – Vladimir Putin.

Russian Empire

But Putin made it very public that while he is no longer a Communist, his goal is a return of the Soviet Empire.  Ever since he consolidated power, he has pressed former Soviet states like Georgia, Belarus; and taken advantage of world instability to gain footholds in Syria and Africa (NATO: Canada).  And, of course, there was the open invasions of Chechnya and Ukraine.  

Until the second invasion of Ukraine, there was little the United States could do besides economic sanctions.  And Putin was happy to pass the pain of sanctions onto the Russian people:  even more reason for them to support him, and blame the West.  But when the Ukrainian people stood up to Russia, the United States found a lever to stall Putin’s long-term plan.  By the US supplying Ukrainian forces, Russia was forced into the largest ground war since World War II.  

A Choice

So here we are at the “crossroads”.  The MAGA-Republicans echo the 1920’s Senate, trying to step away from world authority and hide in “Fortress America”.  It’s the same policy with the same name:  America First.  But, as Congressman Turner pointed out, we are in a world where Russian satellites armed with nuclear weapons can bridge the oceans in minutes.  To turn our back on the threat is simply to invite them to our door.

NATO literally waits with bated breath.  Will the United States live up to their promise, to Article Five of the NATO Treaty and defend NATO Eastern Europe?  Or will we end up in Steve Bannon’s tacit alliance with Russia (and maybe China), splitting the “spoils” of treachery?  It starts in a trench in Eastern Ukraine, on the floor of the United States House of Representatives,  and in the ballot box and towns across America this November.  Is it 1921, or 1945?   That is the decision we face, which road to take.  We are at the “crossroads”. 

Note: As I publish this essay – word comes that Alexei Navalny, the courageous Russian opposition leader, died in a prison. He so believed in the cause of Russian freedom, he risked certain death to go back. He made the ultimate sacrifice, willingly. What will we do?

Long Island Speaks

Fools

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me!!  

New York’s Third Congressional District, as George Bush would say, won’t get fooled again.  In 2022 they elected a fraud, Republican George Santos.  He lied about his upbringing, his education, his employment, his religion.  He even lied about his mother.  And voters in the Third could have, should have, known.  But in out “post-truth” world, he still got elected.  It wasn’t that folks didn’t care; they just didn’t believe what the North Shore Leader was saying.  We live in the age of Trump, where it’s “OK” to call facts, fiction, or fiction, fact.

So the Third definitely won the contest for the “Most Embarrassing Representative” (a hard fight in a Congress with Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene).  And finally, reluctantly, even the MAGA House Republicans realized that George had to go.  He was expelled from the House, triggering a special election.  

Moderate Democrat Tom Suozzi won by eight percentage points.  He won in a District that went for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Republican Lee Zeldin for Governor in 2022 (and elected Santos).  Sure, Suozzi had a leg up.  He held the same seat before Santos, resigning to run for Governor.  But the composition of this “bell-weather” District hasn’t changed, a middle-class suburb of New York City.  Tom Suozzi hasn’t changed either.  And that’s the point.

Moderation

He’s a moderate, much like Joe Biden.  In a political (and Democratic) world that is so often polarized; the Bernie Sanders, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez progressives versus MAGA world Republicans “conservatives”, Suozzi isn’t pinned on one side or the other.  And that’s a lesson Democrats need to learn.

We know the story of Joe Biden winning the Presidency in 2020, but what we often lose in the fog of the Covid pandemic, is how Joe Biden won the primaries.  The first caucus in Iowa chose Pete Buttigieg.  The first primary in New Hampshire chose Bernie Sanders, who also won Nevada.  Going into the South Carolina primary, Joe Biden was charitably in fifth place, behind those two, Klobuchar, and the rest.

The Democratic Party of South Carolina is heavily African-American, but it’s also moderate.  They aren’t wedded to an ideology; they just want a government that can make things better for people, and get things done.  South Carolina Democrats are pragmatic; led by Congressman James Clyburn.  And Clyburn made it clear – they needed to vote for Joe Biden in the primary.

They did, giving Biden’s campaign the oxygen it needed to make it through to Super Tuesday.  And even in that Covid marred election (it was the week the world shut down) Biden was able to win decisively.  The 2020 race for the Democratic nomination was over.  To “steal” a thought from an article by former Meet the Press host Chuck Todd, some Progressives think Biden won because Covid stopped the world.  But that’s not what really happened.  Biden won because Democrats wanted a moderate who could defeat Donald Trump.  And he did.

Get Over It

I am a Progressive, a Liberal Democrat.  But I recognize, maybe because I’m a Blue drop in a Red sea here in Licking County, that there are many on both sides looking for moderation, not polarization.  That’s how Biden won, and that’s how he can win again.

And another point to make here; that’s not what pollsters believe.  We keep seeing polls showing Biden versus Trump, with Trump winning (all within the margin of error).  Just like we saw the polls last week, showing Suozzi close to his Republican opponent.  But today’s modern polling is designed to take the smallest sample possible, and fit it into a “model” of what the pollster thinks America is.  And if they see the “model” as so polarized that there is no room for moderation, then a moderate candidate gets pushed aside in the results.  It’s not about counting opinions, it’s taking opinions to fit into their mold.

No Rest

That doesn’t mean that Democrats don’t need to work their butts off to get Biden elected.  And it doesn’t mean that Trump can’t “thread the needle” and still somehow end up in the Presidency again.  We are at a moment of existential crisis, and there’s no rest for the weary.  We can sleep after the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

But what Long Island told us yesterday is exactly the point.  The extremists in the Democratic Party need to “get on board”, and recognize that Biden represents much more than just “half a loaf”.  Biden, in the past four years, found ways to get things done to make our country better.  We  (progressives) didn’t get everything we wanted, and we lost in the Supreme Court, a problem that will take years to overcome.   But the next four years with Biden means more “progress” for “progressives”.  

But it sure is better than four more years of Donald Trump.  We might not recognize Amerika at the end of his Presidency.

Soundtracks

Nothing But Calamity

I’m definitely an MSNBC guy.  It’s the “soundtrack” of my life, on in the background most of the time at home. Even in the car (with modern technology) I’m following what’s going on through the Sirius Radio app.  Some would say that kind of immersion would “warp” my mind, building a silo to block outside information.  But I do check other media sources, including even (deep breath) Fox News.  I don’t stay for too long.

But NBC seems to stand for  “Nothing But Calamity”, at least  for the past several months.  First, to be honest, MSNBC was instrumental in “mainstreaming” Donald Trump back in 2015.  Their shows, particularly the now four-hour long “Morning Joe” show, gave Trump millions of dollars of free air time in the pivotal period when he was transitioning from NBC television “star” known for a single line (“You’re Fired”) to political candidate.  Now, every morning when the dogs demand I get out of bed, I make a little “bet” with myself.  It’s thirty seconds:  that’s how long it takes to turn on “Morning Joe” and hear the name Donald Trump.  I seldom lose.

Old is Old

And recently, NBC broke “big news”; the results of their polling.  They made the “amazing” discovery through their shrewd questioning:  over 80% of Democratic voters think that eighty years-old is too old to be President! (Oh, this just breaking – NBC found that almost 60% of all voters think both Trump and Biden are too old – it took them an extra three days to let that little secret out). 

No kidding.  I’m a Democrat and I think that eighty years-old is too old to be President too.  But what NBC failed to ask (or at least publicize) is the next question:  will you vote for Joseph R. Biden in 2024, anyway.  And the answer for this Democrat, and I’m sure the vast majority of my Democratic compatriots, is yes.

Look, the Democratic “bench” is incredibly rich.  Not only is there the obvious “next-in-line”, Vice President Kamala Harris.  There’s the Senators:  Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, and more.  Then there’s the Governors: Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and Wes Moore.  And don’t forget Pete Buttigieg serving in the cabinet.   And I’m sure there’s more I haven’t thought of.  If 2024 is an existential threat to democracy, 2028 should be a lot of fun.  

Cancelling Out

But there is no question:  Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee.  If it were anyone else, Joe Biden is the absolute wrong candidate.  But with Trump as the MAGA-Republican, Biden is the right answer.

It’s all about that mathematics: the concept of “cancelling out”.  Biden is eighty-one, but Trump is seventy-seven.  That issue cancels.  Biden can’t remember names, Trump can’t remember the current President, or the former Speaker of the House; cancels.  Biden presides over the greatest economic miracle in modern history, Trump the greatest collapse; more than cancels. And most importantly, Biden ran in 2018 on the basis that Trump was a danger to our democracy.  Trump continues to prove that Biden was right then, and right now.

No other Democrat brings those credentials to the table. 

Fair and Balanced, Ain’t

So what’s the deal with my “friends” at MSNBC?  Why is the “progressive” news channel seeming to lead the way in finding critical anti-Biden information?  I think there are a couple “for sure” reasons, and some speculations.  For sure, MSNBC (and the New York Times) are falling into the same trap that snared them in 2016.  With so much negative news about Trump (trial, trial, trial; botched speech, trial, trial) there is the tendency to try to “balance” the news to make it “fair”.  

But there’s nothing “fair” about Trump.  Has actions, and his problems are unprecedented.  “Fair and Balanced”, the old (and abandoned) Fox News slogan, can’t apply.   If forces those media sources to literally create negative news about Biden, to “balance” Trump.  And that’s not fair.

And, for sure, progressive MSNBC is troubled by what really is a moderate Biden.  The consensus builder (in a world that doesn’t “do” consensus anymore) still is trying to put together coalitions in Congress, and the Nation.  That seems to require compromises that my fellow “progressives” can’t tolerate.  

Progressive Choices

And, speculating only, it seems that there’s a major ideological crisis at MSNBC over the Israeli/Hamas War.  Some commentators are more Israel oriented, some more Palestinian oriented (none are Hamas supporters).  That internal conflict spills out into their support or opposition to the Biden Administration.  Or at least, that’s how it looks to me.

We tried to watch more CNN, just to “flavor” our mornings.  But the problem with CNN, political switch or not, is that it’s still, just, boring.  And distracting – I struggle paying attention to what folks are saying, and what’s “crawling” across the bottom of the screen.  So it’s still MSNBC.

Except for long drives in the afternoon.  I re-discovered a different “media” choice; music.  Yesterday’s playlist on the road to Cincinnati:  Grateful Dead, Sublime, Crosby-Stills and Nash (of course) and Billy Joel.  Now that’s a “progressive” spread!