Category: Uncategorized

Missing the Point

Yesterday, the United States Government set a dubious record:  the longest government shut down in American History.  This shutdown has gone on for three weeks:  over 800,000 government workers either aren’t working at all, or perhaps worse, are required to work without pay.  It’s not just about their lost or delayed wages; it’s also about the services they are unable to perform.  Farmers are waiting for loans to buy seed, brewers are waiting for licenses to brew, small businesses depending on SBA loans are stymied, local governments are cutting bus services because of stalled Federal Grants.

These are the less known examples:  we are all aware of the trash piling up in the National Parks.  They aren’t closed; that would impact “civilians” too much, so instead they are left open and unprotected.  At Joshua Tree National Park, vandals are literally cutting the Joshua Trees to gain access to the back-country for four-wheeling.  At Yellowstone, Shenandoah and on the National Mall; the trash accumulates.  Should the shutdown continue, the SNAP (food stamp) program will be effected, non-agent employees of the FBI will be furloughed, the Federal Courts will be curtailed, and tax returns may not be processed.

The shutdown is all about the President and the Congress.  President Trump wants $5 Billion for building “WALL” on the Mexican border, Democrats controlling the House of Representatives, while willing to provide money for border protection, won’t give him his WALL.  While both sides have tried to negotiate, it has all come down to WALL, and neither side is willing to budge.  The shutdown goes on.

But there are some consequences of the shutdown that are benefitting the President, and others who support him.  Those consequences make it even less likely that the shutdown will end soon.

The first, and most obvious, is it takes the focus off of the Mueller Investigation.  It seems clear that it is coming to a conclusion; in the next couple months the Special Counsel will be issuing indictments, perhaps even of the President’s children.  The shutdown has quieted much of that talk (though the New York Timesarticle reporting that the FBI opened a counter-intelligence investigation into the President seems to have risen above the shutdown “noise.”)  

As long as the President sees himself as the focus of news coverage because of the shutdown, it also keeps the new Democratic House of Representatives from stealing the spotlight. I’m sure the President isn’t happy when Speaker Pelosi, or even worse, Congressman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, gets headlines.

But there are other hidden “benefits” for the President as well.  The Federal Courts have slowed down the progress of most civil litigation, and it will come to a halt if the shutdown continues.  The President is facing a number of civil suits, particularly the emoluments case in the District of Columbia.  He still faces a lawsuit from Stormy Daniels, and a lawsuit about First Amendment violations of multiple “Trump enemies.”

While the Federal shutdown impacts Federal cases, that aren’t slowing the work of the New York State Attorney General, particularly her actions regarding the Trump Foundation and Trump Organization violations of New York State tax law.

One way the shutdown might end is if Republican Senators feel the pressure from their constituents to make the government work.  The problem is that Republican Senators are even more sensitive to pressure from their financial base, particularly the huge money interests represented by billionaires like the Koch brothers.  Until “the money turns” it’s not likely those Senators will turn on the President.

The Cato Institute is a conservative think tank, founded by the far right billionaire brothers.  This is the Institutes’ view of the shutdown in an article titled “Government shutdown exposes how big government has become.”  Here’s some excerpts:

…And now, because the TSA is the only screening organization we have, the shutdown may affect the entire nation’s air travel…The loss of officers, while we’re already shorthanded, will create a massive security risk for American travelers…but political battles would not impact such important activities if they were separated from the federal government. Many advanced nations, including Britain and France, have privatized their screening or moved it to the control of local airports.  If we followed suit, there would not be just one “pipeline” for trainees because airports could contract services from numerous companies. (Response Action Network)

With an overall goal of privatizing almost every government function, the Cato Institute is using the shutdown to try to prove that the government is unreliable.  If their sponsor Koch Brothers want to use the shutdown to prove their point, they are unlikely to encourage the Republican Senators they finance to end the crisis.

Ending the shutdown will depend on pressure on all sides.  While the President is likely to hold firm to WALL, the critical balance will be Federal worker pressure on Democrats and constituent pressure on Republican legislators.  Congress could open the government over the President’s objections – but it would take a two-thirds vote to do it.  That’s not likely, but with a President, and some members of Congress, with less obvious reasons for keeping the government closed, that might be missing the point anyway.

Collect Call from the Alexandria Jail

This week the lawyers for Paul Manafort, convicted felon and former Chairman of the Trump Presidential Campaign, made a big mistake. In a filing with the Federal District Court in Washington, DC, that was trying to counter Special Counsel Mueller’s assessment that Manafort broke his plea agreement and should be sentenced accordingly. The Defense filed an electronic brief  with several paragraphs redacted by the famous “black lines.”

The “boo-boo” was that in blacking out the details, they covered the information but didn’t delete it.  When the media copied the brief, they discovered that the black lines could be removed, revealing the classified information.  

The revealed information explained why Special Counsel believed Manafort reneged on his plea deal.  Manafort lied to them about his contacts with Russian political operative and former Manafort employee Konstantine Kiliminik, who himself was indicted by the Special Counsel’s Grand Jury for obstruction of justice.  Mueller’s team noted that when Manafort was running the Trump Campaign, he gave detailed polling information to Kiliminik; information that would have been extremely helpful in targeting the Russian social media dis-information campaign against Hillary Clinton and for Trump.  

The Manafort team was attempting to excuse the gift of the information as “one politician showing off to another,” but the significance of the information, and the lying by Manafort, was not lost on the Special Counsel, and resulted in the withdrawal of the plea agreement.  Manafort faces a ten-year Federal prison term, and could face additional time if he is tried for more offenses.  With the Mueller deal cancelled, there is only one other way he could avoid a long stretch in incarceration.

President Trump has never taken a Manafort pardon “off the table,” keeping the option dangling.  He has also praised Manafort for his courage in not telling-all, as opposed to the Presidential Twitter storm of criticism about his cooperating former lawyer, Michael Cohen. 

But it’s not just the prospect of a Trump pardon that keeps Manafort from coming clean with prosecutors.  He also is deeply in debt to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, to the tune of $10 million.  Like all Russian oligarchs, Deripaska is closely aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  From the beginning of his involvement with the Trump Campaign, Manafort was consistently looking for ways to re-pay his debt.  

Deripaska was interested in getting repaid, but also represents the interests of the Russian Government.  If Manafort really was cooperating with Russian Intelligence by getting them the granular polling data from the campaign; telling the Mueller team might put Manafort in grave physical danger.  He might not be lying out of loyalty to Trump, but out of the fear that he could end up a victim of Russian assassination.

So Manafort might be stuck – unable to cut a truthful deal, and unwilling as a sixty-nine year old man to serve a decade or more in jail. His only chance:  a Presidential pardon.  Maybe the “clerical” error in redaction was really more of a message to the President:  “…look at what we know, and what we can tell, get me out of here!!!!” 

And maybe the Manafort legal team isn’t really quite as incompetent as they appear.  They have from the first Federal hearing, emphasized that their client was going to stick with the President, and with his story.  Now that a ten or more years sentence stretches before him, they may have needed to remind the President of what the former Chairman knows.

They did it in the way most likely to reach Mr. Trump; through media reports about the “boo-boo.”  They were saying:  “…Paul Manafort calling collect from the Alexandria Jail for Donald Trump, do you accept the charges?”  We all await the answer. 

The Easy Way Out

President Trump gave a speech to the nation last night.  ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, FOX CNN and MSNBC all gave him prime time.  The rumor beforehand was that the President planned to declare a “national emergency” at the border, getting extraordinary powers to “build the wall.”  No network was going to ignore that news.

He didn’t do that.  He simply reiterated his case for building a steel-slat not beautiful concrete wall.  He used blatantly misleading and inaccurate statistics, then tried to scare us with horror stories about murders committed by illegal immigrants.

Then Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer spoke, looking for all-the-world like Grant Wood’s  “American Gothic” painting as they stood side by side at the podium. They fact-checked the President, and blamed the shutdown on him.  While they weren’t wrong, they also weren’t particularly convincing.

So, if you tried to be “open-minded” last night, and didn’t turn off the “other side,” in the end neither side won.  It did manage to disrupt Tuesday night prime-time TV, the best night of the week – don’t mess with NCIS!

After the speeches, social media lit up.  I read post after post by my Republican friends, saying that Democrats were for “open borders” and refusing to defend AMERICA.  My more extreme “friends” spoke of Democratic conspiracies to get illegals to vote, or vague alliances between drug cartels and the Democratic Party. 

I am a Democratic, and a liberal, and definitely have a minority view for where I live.  So I need to make it clear what the Democratic position is.

I am not for uncontrolled borders, where anyone can wander across.  Any nation has the “right” to determine who comes in or out, and the US is no different.   I am also not in favor of unlimited immigration, where anyone can enter the US and stay.  And I am certainly not in favor of drugs or humans being trafficked across the border.

I am in favor of security at the border.  We are now technically capable of checking the contents of trucks and vehicles with electronic devices to find the 90% of illegal drugs that are coming across at LEGAL entry points. We need to spend the money to do this, even though I do believe that the answers to our drug problems are on the “user” side.  We won’t stop illegal drug use until we find a way to get people to stop using.

I am in favor of a strong Border Patrol, keeping track of what’s happening on our border.  That Patrol needs the latest electronic means of surveillance, and needs to be able to adapt to the changing geography at our border.  In urban areas, barriers make sense, in the middle of Big Bend National Park in Texas, where the Rio Grande serves as the boundary, drones and helicopters make more sense.    

That Border Patrol has to be more than just about enforcement, but also must serve as a rescue service for those who try to cross the border wilderness.  That includes emergency medical care, as well as food and water.  

I am in favor of an Immigration Service that focuses on those who are illegally in the United States and are criminals.  There seems to be plenty of them, so they should leave the undocumented who are working, living, and thriving here alone.  If gangs are the problem, then they should focus their efforts on them. Raiding chicken processing plants and setting up undocumented mothers makes them look like some kind of un-American secret police.

And I am in favor of a humane policy at the border.  We should recognize the desperation of migrants who have literally walked thousands of miles to escape the intolerable conditions of their homes.  We should welcome them, care for them, and determine whether they should be granted asylum.  Our current policy is driving them to act illegally, risking their family’s lives to step on US soil.  

We should be getting to the root of the problem, the issues in Central America of poverty and gang violence and corruption.  Like the drug problem being more about users than suppliers, the migration problem starts at the source.  Dealing with that would be a great use of our funds.

And we should deal with the Dreamers and immigration reform as a whole, without the current overtones of racism.  The blatant fear of “brown people” that emanates from the White House degrades the American dream.  We need to fix that.

This all means that “the Wall” is not only a waste of money, but also not a solution to the problem. We need a nuanced and complex approach, one that hiding behind concrete, or steel-slats, won’t fix.

So that’s where I stand. And that’s where the Democratic Party stands as well, so stop falling for the propaganda of “memes” on Facebook, or scare tactics by our President.  Americans can deal with complex problems, whether it’s health care or going to the moon.  We need to do the hard work of solving the problem, not fall for the simplistic solutions don’t work.  They make for great “sound bites” on network news, or audience chants at campaign rallies, but the “easy way out”  — never is.

Presidential Fog

Almost two years ago I wrote the second essay for “Trump World,” called “Liar Liar Liar.”  We were entering the Trump Era, and I tried to define the new reality of “facts” used by the Administration to justify whatever they wanted. The final portion of that essay gave survival instructions:

1. Hold fast to the “facts” that are actual facts. Don’t fall into the trap of allowing “alternate facts” to take hold as reality. Remember, the formula for Trumpian success is to establish the “rules” for his reality – pressing REAL reality onto that forces the administration to defend their “alternative.”

2. Chaos creates “the fog of war.” It is within the false reality of that “fog” that the Trump Administration operates. Don’t get distracted by the “alternate fact” of the day. Cut to the important decisions and news that is underneath

3. Recognize the “Trump Plan” – and begin to counter-plan!!!

Tonight, in the midst of his manufactured crisis on the border, the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, will address the nation on network television.  If he repeats what his Administration has been saying, he’s going to lie to America.  Let’s look at his “facts.”  

Vice President Pence, Homeland Security Secretary Nielsen and Press Secretary Sanders have all said “…four thousand on the terror watch list have crossed the border this year” to justify their Southern Border Crisis.  The reality: all but six of those came through airports or Canada, not the Southern Border.  They also said the 17,000 criminals crossed the Southern border.   The reality: the Trump Department of Homeland Security defines anyone who crosses the border illegally as a criminal.  Crossing the border illegally is a misdemeanor offense, not a felony like “rapists and murderers.”  It can even be handled as a “civil” offense, like a traffic ticket.

When mainstream media fact-checked the 4000 “terrorists,” the Administration’s story changed. Vice President Pence this morning said 3000 “special interest aliens” came across the Southern border.   “Special interest” aliens aren’t criminals, or even likely terrorists, but simply trigger a “red flag” because of their travel patterns.  The “crisis” of terrorists and criminals coming in caravans to “attack” the United States is manufactured and it’s imaginary.

And now, for the first time, we are in a “humanitarian crisis” according to the Trump Administration.  All of those folks coming are “stacked up” in the border towns, victims of crime and fraud.  Those conditions are forcing them to try to cross illegally, risking their lives and their children.  This is an “emergency” that the President believes “WALL” will fix.

The reality: the migrants are in a bad situation, but their emergency was created by the Administration through their own policies. Emergency powers aren’t required; what is needed is more judges, medical care, and fewer incarcerations.  Nothing extraordinary needs to occur; it’s how both Presidents Bush and Obama handled increased border pressure.  And, to answer the Trumpian excuse that “…Obama separated children at the border too;” that’s true. But there is a huge difference: the Obama policy separated children from parents who were criminals, but not everyone who crossed the border illegally were classified as criminal.  The number of separations was much smaller, and dealt with felons, not misdemeanor offenders.  

And the most easily checked Presidential “fact:” four former Presidents told Mr. Trump “they’d wished they’d built a wall.”  The facts: all of the living former Presidents, Obama, Bush, Clinton, and Carter have clearly denied speaking to Trump about this, or wanting a border wall.

So if the “crisis” is a manufactured emergency, why have we closed part of the government?

Going back to “LIAR LIAR LIAR,”Mr. Trump has created chaos. Government workers aren’t getting paid, government services are getting cut back:  food stamps are in jeopardy, Parks are full of trash, TSA agents at the airport are taking sick days and plane inspectors are having trouble keeping up. This “shutdown crisis” was created so that the President can “fulfill” his campaign promise of “WALL.”  It helps solidify his base, and in the chaos, we aren’t talking about the Mueller investigation, or about the new Democratic House of Representatives, or even the dramatic declines in the stock market. It’s exactly the way the President operates; in the fog he moves the focus to the issue HE wants to talk about.

Tonight we will hear the President speak.  It will have all the trappings of a “Presidential Address,” with flags and pictures in the Oval Office.  The setting will remind us of real crisis times, of Bush after 9-11 and Johnson stopping the bombing in Vietnam.  Don’t let the setting fool you, it’s just more Presidential Fog.  

Beta O’Rourke’s Video on the Border Wall

In the Room Where It Happens – Hamilton

Speaking English

Writing essays for “Trump World” has given me the opportunity to get in lots of conversations about our times.  Some have been face to face, some have been through comments directly to the “Trump World” site, and some have been on social media. Last week I was in an extended discussion with a pro-Trump friend about “WALL.”

I came into the discussion with a pre-conceived of what a “wall” was.  To fall back on my Mom’s British upbringing; the Oxford dictionary definition of a wall is, “A continuous vertical brick or stone structure that encloses or divides an area of land.”  That seemed pretty “cut and dried,” a wall is – a wall.

In our current polarized world it is difficult to have discussions. We often don’t share the same facts, or communicate using the same terms.  It’s hard to discuss when you don’t understand each other; that incomprehension contributes to the divisions in our society.  The feeling often is, “I don’t understand you – so you must be stupid,” or words to that effect.

But, arguing about the definition of “a wall”?  Is that what our political discussion has come to?  Maybe the problem isn’t in defining a “wall,” but in reading and listening more closely.  Maybe “WALL” is different than a “wall,” at least as my Trumpian friends define it.

I know, this all sounds like nonsense, but this may be the basis for a win-win deal to re-open the government.  Regardless of what many Trump supporters say, Democrats are in favor of trying to solve the problems on our Southern border.  Democrats believe in a more humane and comprehensive solution, dealing with both migrants that are at the border now, and the conditions in Central America that are causing the migrations.  Democrats are not “in favor” of illegal immigration and are willing to strengthen our position on the Southern border.  

But Democrats are NOT willing to see the “Great Wall of Trump” built from the Gulf to the Pacific.  It not only represents a huge waste of money in a low-tech, outdated mode of border control, completely deferrable by ladder or tunnel; but it also embodies a racist view of Hispanics, who must be “walled out.”

As I listen to the Republicans, they are beginning to change their definition of a wall to “WALL.” Already the President has left his construction world of concrete and re-bar, and moved to a steel-slat barrier, something that I define as a fence.  His statement is that the “WALL fence” would serve the same purpose as a true wall, and would allow the Border Patrol to see through to what’s happening on the other side.  And today, the President’s new Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney, acknowledged that “WALL” would be used where appropriate, not as a continuous barrier from Gulf to Pacific.

Jared Kushner and Senator Lindsey Graham have both suggested that a deal could include solving the DACA situation, with a permanent law replacing the current Obama executive order that’s being challenged in court.  Over a year ago, Democrats were willing to take an “actual wall” for $25 Billion to get comprehensive immigration reform, maybe there’s room for less on each side now.

So is all of this about semantics, about the definition of “WALL?”  If the President was willing to accept $2.6 Billion for “improvements” including steel-slat fence, electronic surveillance and detection on the border, in exchange for a limited DACA deal and changes on how migrants are handled, is that enough “WALL” to re-open the government?  

The President has to have “WALL.”  As Lindsey Graham said, it’s what Trump has staked his Presidency on.  Democrats cannot allow a “wall,” they staked their election victory of 2018 on stopping it.  The entire left wing of the Democratic Party would be betrayed by a “wall.” 

So we will each have our own version of the deal.  To Democrats, there will be border security enhancements, legalization of DACA, and improved treatments of migrants at the border.  To Republicans, there will be “WALL”, even though it’s a steel fence, only going in certain places.  Both sides will get something, neither side will get everything:  it’s “…how the sausage is made;” a compromise to open the government.  And we will all be speaking our own version of English.

An Imperial Presidency

My freshman year of college at Denison University in 1974, I had the opportunity to immerse myself in politics. I took courses like “Advanced Legislative Process” and “Foreign Policy in the Twentieth Century.” I got to delve into government, structure, and history; all combined to explain where we are and where we came from. That might sound like a sentence to the depths of Hell to some, but for me it was a dream-come-true.  

It was the year that Nixon resigned, after two full years of Watergate hearings and crisis. During that fall, I read a book by Arthur Schlesinger, an historian and advisor to President Kennedy.  It wasn’t part of any course, just another swim in the political pond.  It was called “The Imperial Presidency.”

Schlesinger described the growth of the Executive Branch and the office of the Presidency, particularly the growth since Roosevelt’s New Deal era.  For example, during the Civil War, Lincoln’s “White House Staff” consisted of two secretaries and five other assorted personnel.  Today that number is three hundred and seventy-seven, backed up by four thousand employees in the Executive Office. 

I marveled that Schlesinger foresaw the overreach of the last year of Nixon’s tenure.  And I also recognized the inherent contradictions that liberals like me were faced with:  while the executive branch gaining increased power helped in areas like improving civil rights and reducing poverty, it also brought us the excesses of the Vietnam War and Watergate.  

Neither Korean nor Vietnam were ever “declared” wars by Congress.  Vietnam was managed by Presidents as an “executive action”; they were given war-making authority by Congress through the Gulf of Tonkin resolution.  Congress gave up its ability to control the war and gave the Presidency a blank check.

In some ways, that made sense in the nuclear age.  Beginning with Russia’s detonation of an atomic bomb in 1949, war was no longer a “six week to mobilize” process.  The joke: “…Moscow in flames, bombs on the way, film at eleven,” was more than dark comedy, it was a real possibility. With the advent of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, the launch-to-strike time came down to thirty minutes.  Presidents had to act, they couldn’t wait for a session of Congress to debate a war resolution.

And yet, that became a long term Presidential power.  The Gulf of Tonkin resolution turned into the War Powers Act; it allowed the invasion of Granada, the Balkans, and Iraq.  That was succeeded by the War on Terrorism authorization after 9-11, justifying the invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq again, and ultimately Syria. Though Congress debated and discussed from time to time, the President waged war literally on his own authority.

Congress has transmitted its authority to the President in other areas as well.  Setting tariffs, dealing with natural disasters; in fact Congress created a law in 1974 called the “National Emergencies Act” giving the President extra-ordinary power simply by his declaring an “emergency.”   Once declared, a “national emergency” and the authority that comes with it doesn’t go away. There are currently TWENTY EIGHT declared emergencies  ranging from Iran, Narcotics Trafficking, the Balkans, Terrorism, to Venezuela  (CNN).  

Democracy is messy and time consuming.  Presidents and the Congress have wanted to streamline more than just military actions: but to get that speed, Congress has ceded much of its authority to the executive. They wanted, to use the slogan of Musollini, “…the trains to run on time.”  More recently, the partisan deadlock in the Congress has encouraged Presidents to find “executive” means of furthering their agendas.  A recent example was President Obama’s DACA orders given children of illegal immigrants legal status.  He couldn’t get Congress to act, so he did it himself.

So here we are, with a Congress that has tied itself in knots, and a President anxious to further his agenda, or as Trump would say, keep his campaign promises.  Congress has essentially given him the authority to legislate through “emergency” declaration and executive orders.  If you liked what President Obama did with DACA, it will be hard to argue against a President Trump “emergency.”  The “check and balance” for both has been given away.

Don’t expect the Courts to be the ultimate protector of Congressional authority either.  It would be hard to blame even the Federalist Society majority on the Supreme Court, if they said “…Congress gave him the power, Congress is the only one that can take it back.”  If this is an inter-branch fight, why should the Supreme Court intervene when one side has already conceded.

It’s an Imperial Presidency, and we’ve let it happen.  When Donald Trump declares an “emergency” at the Southern border, and proceeds to build “WALL,” he may well get his way and a victory in the current shutdown crisis. The House of Representatives can scream, but the McConnell led Senate will likely be silenced, giving away even more authority.  It takes both House and Senate to defend the power of the Congress, and the 116^thisn’t likely to do so.

In the years after Watergate, Congress legislated against the excesses Nixonian extremes in campaigning and executive influence.  Whatever comes of our current crisis with President Trump; when it’s all over, Congress should look at the larger issue of Presidential authority, and take back the power they have so easily given away.  We need our President to be less Imperial, and more bound by law.  It may prove to be cumbersome and inconvenient, but it will safeguard real democracy.

Rambo Would Be Shocked

So an old history teacher and student of the Cold War has to lecture one more time!!!

President Trump rewrote history this week with a rambling public dissertation on the fall of the Soviet Union.  He placed the virtual bankrupting and collapse of the Communist empire on the war in Afghanistan, a war the President said was justified by terrorist attacks from Afghanistan on the Soviets.  It fit in perfectly with current Russian propaganda, and gives Trump an excuse for withdrawing from our seventeen-year war in the region.  The problem is: it’s not true.

Before we enter the alternative past that the President has created let’s get one thing clear:  finding our way out of Afghanistan is a good idea. We are on our second generation of Americans fighting and dying there, and are battling for a vague and distant goal. We went there for two reasons: destroy Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda for 9-11, and punish the ruling Taliban tribe for allowing him to stay there.  It took a while, but both of those goals have been achieved, and while we are now propping up our allies in the current government, we need an exit strategy (not to be confused with a tweet saying we are leaving.)   

But let’s get a few items of history clear.  One of the long-term strategies of the United States in the conflict between “the free world” and “communism” called the Cold War was a plan of encirclement.  The US wanted to contain the Soviet Union by surrounding it with nations allied with the US in one way or another.  It was an alphabet soup of alliances: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO.)   It stretched from Norway’s Artic border, through Eastern Europe (the old “Iron Curtain”) into Turkey, and central Asia, then on into the Pacific.  

It denied warm water ports to the Soviet Union, allowing only a base in the Crimea on the Black Sea (the same base the Russians took from Ukraine), the Artic port at Archangel, the Baltic port at Kaliningrad and the Pacific port at Vladivostok.  The Premier of the Soviet Union, Leonid Brezhnev, was constantly searching for ways to expand Soviet influence and break out of the “noose around the Soviet neck.”  In 1978, a Soviet backed Afghan group took control of the country.  There were opposed by multiple other tribes, including fundamentalist Islamic groups that saw the Communist changes as violating Koranic law. When the Soviet picked Afghan President was killed in 1979, the Soviet Army invaded.   

It was an ugly war of oppression, with the Soviet Army using the most advanced weapons against the “Mujahideen,” the guerilla fighters, often on horseback.  Over the next ten years the Soviets discovered what many other occupying armies in Afghanistan already knew (and the United States would find out):  that controlling the rugged mountainous regions of the country is near impossible.  It also is near impossible to create stable alliances within the country, with varying tribal interests and traditional rivalries taking precedence.  And, of course, US aid and weapons to the Mujahideen, brought over the passes from Pakistan, helped keep the fight alive.

Americans will remember this war from the “Rambo III” movie, where Rambo was sent into Afghanistan to rescue his mentor.  The Mujahideen were portrayed as heroic, a far cry from how these same fighters would be seen thirty years later.

An estimated 20,000 Soviet troops were killed with another 50,000 wounded in the ten year struggle.  Mujahideen losses were more than triple those numbers.  After ten years with little gained, the Soviets finally withdrew, leaving their puppet government to quickly fall.

But they didn’t leave because the war broke them economically.  It was another strategy of the Western Alliances that achieved that, the Ronald Reagan arms race.  Reagan pressed advanced weapons technology, from stealth aircraft and submarines, to the “Star Wars” space defense system (that never worked.)  The US was spending trillions of dollars on weapons, and the Soviet Union was forced to try to match it.  At the height of this Cold War expansion, the US was spending 6.8% of our GDP (gross domestic product.)  To try to keep up, the Soviet Union was spending as much as 20% of GDP, an unsustainable amount.

The resulting economic disaster forced Soviet leaders to withdraw from not only Afghanistan, but also Eastern Europe.  The Berlin Wall came down in 1989:  the Red Banner of the Soviet Union came down for the final time in Moscow on Christmas Day 1991.

This revisionist view of history President Trump shared is accepted by no one except the current occupants of the Kremlin (and I’m sure Mr. Putin was pleased to hear it.)   While the Soviet War in Afghanistan was ugly, the Soviets did not intervene to stop terrorists, and the War did not destroy the Soviet Empire.  But Trump’s revision certainly does fit with the Putin’s overall plan for regaining their former Soviet glory, and should lead Americans to question:  what side is President Trump on?  The answer might shock even Rambo.

Through His Eyes

Best when read accompanied by In Your Eyes by Peter Gabriel 

So for all of us Democrats, it seems the President has placed himself in an impossible position. He’s defended “WALL” using the Vatican as an example, tweeting that “WALLS” and “wheels” have worked for thousands of years, and creating stories about the Obama’s home protection (not a ten foot wall.)  He has let Vice President Pence and Senator Lindsey Graham float possible compromises, and then quickly denounced their ideas.  He gave a twenty-minute rambling explanation on national television during the cabinet meeting, then called Democrats to the “Situation Room” to tell them how they should vote.  Not surprisingly, they didn’t agree.

It seems unreasonable, unthinking, and unhinged.  He has closed parts of the government, holding hundreds of thousands of paychecks and national parks hostage for “WALL.”  From any reasonable political standpoint he has backed himself into an unwinnable corner; if he doesn’t get his $5 Billion for “WALL” and reopen the government, he loses. Even the Republican leaders, notably Senator Mitch McConnell, are silent on the issue.  

Let’s look at the numbers. According to Gallup Polling, the President’s overall approval rating is 39% approve, 55% disapprove (and a poor 5% don’t have an opinion.)  89% of Republicans approve of his Presidency, with 39% of independents and 8% of Democrats (really, Democrats?)  And finally, 26% of American voters consider themselves Republican, 32% Democrat, and 39% Independent. 

Just a little math from an old government teacher (check the figuring.)   What President Trump’s Republican approval number really represents, is 89% of 26%, or 23% of the total voting population.  So why does that give him so much confidence?

The reality is that it doesn’t, but there is one more figure that needs to be noted.  In the 2016 primary election the overall voter turnout, according to Pew Researchwas 14.8% of registered voters.  This is compared to the 61.4%turnout in the general election.

14.8% of American voters chose the candidates for President.  14.8% also chose the candidates for the Senate and the House of Representatives. That small sliver of the voting population controls who gets to go on the general election ballot; they are the motivated party voters who clearly identify.  In the Republican Party, they are the 89% that approve of the Trump Presidency.  

So the President has this weapon remaining:  his approval (or disapproval) still controls the Republican Party electorate.  His tweet, or off-hand comment, really does have the power to end a political career.  Ask Republican Congressman Mark Sanford of South Carolina, a career politician who had been Governor of the state.  He had the audacity to criticize Donald Trump, and the President successfully backed his primary opponent.  Sanford retires today from the Congress (notably, Democrat Joe Cunningham won the seat in the general election.)

Newly minted Republican Senator Mitt Romney criticized the President in a Washington Posteditorial.  But Romney is in a unique position as the Senator from Utah, one of the “reddest” states in the country that does not strongly support the President.  The Mormon influence in the state does not blend well with the President’s background and actions; Romney is politically safe to criticize.

So while the President’s position on the “WALL” is not popular (62% of Americans do not support it) it absolutely does resonate with the Republican base.  Keeping that base happy is essential to the President’s survival, as their happiness gives him power over Republican Senators.

It is foreseeable that the Democratic House of Representatives will find it necessary to impeach the President.  Impeachment is the bringing of charges to the Senate, it is up to the Senate of the United States to determine whether to remove the President from office (historically no President has been removed from office, Andrew Johnson survived by one vote in 1869, and Richard Nixon resigned prior to being impeached.)  

The Senate requires two-thirds vote to remove from office, sixty-seven Senators.  Currently the Senate has fifty-three Republicans, forty-five Democrats and two Independents (Sanders of Vermont, King of Maine) that caucus with the Democrats.  To remove the President it would require all the Democrats and Independents, plus TWENTY Republican Senators.  

The WALL isn’t about security on the Southern Border.  It isn’t really even about the President showing his muscles to the new House of Representatives.  What it is about is solidifying the Republican base to maintain control of the Republican Senators.  This has been the President’s “Russiagate” strategy since Rudy Giuliani was hired; it’s not about the law, or the facts, but about keeping the BASE to keep pressure on the Senate when impeachment comes up.

To my fellow “Resistance” members; this is not time to despair.  The Mueller report is not completed, we don’t know what Robert Mueller knows, and neither does the House or the Senate.  Until that information is revealed, and the Nation gets to see what really happened, we can’t determine the impact.  The “concrete wall” that Trump is trying to build around his base may turn out to be a slatted fence, or bamboo, or simple a dirt line in the sand. 

When the Report arrives, we may well see the view change through Republican Senators’ eyes.

The Setup

Let’s be clear about the current United States’ strategy on the Southern Border:  it’s a setup.  The Trump Administration’s Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice have established policies that are designed to get exactly what we are getting:  a crisis on the border.  Here’s how it works.

Prior to the current policies, the United States abided by the treaties we signed on immigration and asylum.  We recognized that when an immigrant gained US soil they had the right to claim asylum. Then, their asylum claim would be adjudicated in a Federal Court (Immigration Court) and they would either be allowed to stay, or deported.

Before, when we became aware of a surge of immigrants hitting the border crossings, we would send additional judges.  Immigrants who crossed illegally were apprehended, processed, and released until their hearing, often with an ankle monitor, a commonly used court technique to keep track of folks on parole or probation.  Ask Paul Manafort, he had two monitors awaiting trial; when he still violated his parole conditions, then they put him in jail.

The key to the current crisis is the term “gained US soil.”  It has always been illegal to cross the border into the United States outside of the controlled ports of entry.  That crime is a misdemeanor offense (8 U.S.C. Section 1325, I.N.A. Section 275.) The current Administration decided that instead of releasing illegals before trial, they would arrest and incarcerate everyone who crossed illegally.  They also decided that they would NOT increase the number of Immigration judges available for asylum hearings, and they executed a slow-down at the legal port of entry locations.  The results of this policy were readily foreseeable.

There was a rapid increase in the need for places to hold illegals, basically some form of jail. And since many illegals were bringing their minor children, the government was placed in the position of caring for all of those children.  The Federal District Court in San Diego had long before ruled that children could not be held in custody (the Flores Decision) by the Department of Homeland Security for the actions of their parents, meaning they could not jail the kids with the parents. 

So the Department of Health and Human Services was dragged into the fray; they were tasked with the care of all of those children.  The sheer number of kids was overwhelming:  Health and Human Services ended up using facilities all over the nation to house them.  Parents were in one place, kids in another, two different agencies were trying to keep track of them; it was the guaranteed disaster we saw last summer.  And it still continues.

More recently, the Administration has further slowed the legal entry process at the points of entry. This has caused a “stack up” of immigrants in the most vulnerable location; the border towns of Mexico. They are dependent on locals for food and shelter, at risk from criminals and literally “trapped” up against the US border.  It should be no surprise then, that they are easily persuaded by “coyotes” to attempt an illegal crossing.

But to have a chance of success, the crossing needs to be made at a remote location, far from the well-guarded bridges and legal crossings.  The American Southwest is mostly arid wilderness; immigrants are pointed north and sent out ill-equipped to deal with the conditions.  So people die, children suffer, folks who live there feel threatened by the often desperate people who appear at their doorstep:  the Administration has “squeezed” immigrants into taking huge risks.

Again, this was all foreseeable, but the policies that created this were intentionally designed. Senior Administration officials have said again and again; if getting in the US is dangerous and hard, they think immigrants will stay home.  Those officials have missed the important point:  the conditions the immigrants are leaving are so intolerable that the risks of staying outweigh the risks of leaving.  

And it is just possible that the Administration enjoys political benefit from the crisis.  It keeps the Trump “base” involved and concerned, with each new event on the border generating more need to build “WALL.” Of course, “WALL” won’t change any of the other issues on the border, it will simply squeeze the immigrants into even more dramatic actions.  Whether it’s tunnels (already in San Diego area) or ladders and ramps, a simple “WALL” neither secures the border nor stop illegal immigration.  

So the crisis is created, a setup to keep Americans focused on the border.  And like any distraction, it begs the question:  what are we missing?

I Can’t Be About Hate

It’s New Year’s Day, 2019. I was born in 1956, so for my generation it’s kind of amazing — 2019: where are the Dick Tracy wrist-radios and the robot maids?  For those of us who once marked punch cards to run on the “main frame” computer and used a slide rule, we now have more computing power in our pocket than filled those main frame rooms.  Wrist “radios” are now common place, and that thing running around the floor annoying the dogs, well that IS the robot maid!  

My generation has been through a lot.  The children of World War II veterans, many of us grew up in suburban “Leave it to Beaver” neighborhoods.  We hid under desks from nuclear bombs, and became more aware of our societies inequities. We marched for civil rights, against the war in Vietnam, and for a cleaner world.  We lived through the assassinations, Watergate, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Soviet Union.  We thought that would be the beginning of a new era of peace and prosperity, both here at home and abroad.  It didn’t quite work out that way.

That inequities thing came back to haunt us.  Here in America, one percent of Americans has 40% of the wealth.  While the US may be the wealthiest nations in the world, with almost one and a half times the GDP of China, the next on the list, our standard of living is only ranked seventeenth.  Our income inequality creates enormous tensions.

In the world these same kinds of inequities have encouraged extremism.  In the Middle East, that extremism can be seen in the political radicalism of Al Qaeda and ISIS, and the increasing authoritarianism in Turkey and Egypt.   Just as Marxism spread through the upheavals in the Colonial world of the 1950’s and 60’s, political extremism in the guise of  “religion” has found fertile ground from the teeming streets of Gaza to the far mountains of Afghanistan to the slums of Manila.  

As a political science student at Denison University in the 1970’s, I learned a theory of Revolution. Revolutions; movements that overthrow governments and societies, don’t happen when things are “at their worst.” Revolutions aren’t born out of despair, they arise out of crushed possibilities; they happen when there is “hope for change” and that hope is dashed.  In our world today, where the farthest regions are connected together by wireless communication and the internet may be more prevalent than running water; inequality is on display.  The farthest flung village can see what they cannot have.

In the United States many have turned to “tribalism,” a euphemistic term for blind loyalty to a “side.” I heard it described as politics turned into religion; it no longer is a question of policy and program, but of unyielding “faith” in a political group.  No wonder it’s so difficult to have discussions, we aren’t talking about issues anymore, but our “religion.”  Mom always said not to talk religion at the dining room table, it was the surest way to ruin the meal (we weren’t allowed to criticize the Queen either, Mom was very British.)  Our “tribe” is now our politics; we talk among our fellow “tribesmen” like new acolytes to the faith, and disdain the “non-believers” on the other side.

It can’t be about hate. We may disagree with “the other side” either here in our nation or in the world, we may hate some of the actions they take, but we cannot hate them.  If there is hate, there is no opportunity for redemption; we cannot show mercy or understanding for those we hate.  We need to see why they have chosen “their side.” Here in the United States, Trump supporters have lost trust in our institutions, and are looking to a “1% of 1%” man to lead to greater equality.  If that’s not “your tribe,” still recognize that our nations inequities have made Trump possible, and encouraged the growth of racism and intolerance.  

In many parts of the world, where unmanned weapons can rain cold death from the sky, we must recognize that those “tribes” might well turn to extremism as the only alternative to powerlessness.  They see inequity, and they follow leaders who offer “easy” solutions.  It is to overcome powerlessness that a seventeen year-old boy is convinced to strap on a suicide vest; we cannot change what we cannot understand – so understand.  It is the same for the school-shooter here at home.

I can’t hate.  I can’t hate here at home, but I can continue to try to reason and explain.  I can’t hate abroad, but I can continue to reach for those who have not chosen extremism. I can work for a better nation and world, for more equality in wealth and values.  I am a small voice, but if small voices band together, they become powerful.  Powerful not with the short-term destructive power of hate, but for the long-term improvements brought by compassion and understanding.   

Hostage

In 1978, Shi’ite revolutionaries in Iran led by the Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the US supported Shah (King) Pahlavi.  Soon after, the Shah was given sanctuary by the United States, and Iran wanted him back. On November 4^th, 1979, fifty-two Americans were taken hostage by Iranian Revolutionary Guards to “trade” for him. 

For four hundred and forty-four days, President of the United States Jimmy Carter did everything he could diplomatically and militarily to bring them home, including the first highly complex Delta Force rescue mission – that failed spectacularly. 

1980 was an election year, and Carter was running for his second term in office.  However, he pledged to stay at the White House until the hostages were freed, and was forced to run a large portion of his Presidential campaign from “the Rose Garden.”  While the strategy was good enough to win a contested primary against Ted Kennedy, it became symbolic of Carter’s inability to solve the hostage crisis in the general election.

Carter was trapped in the White House.  It was a choice he and his advisors made, but it allowed the Ayatollah to dictate events in the American election.  Ronald Reagan was able to play his best role, the “cowboy” riding into town and taking charge, and Carter looked like the banker hiding behind a desk.  Reagan won in a landslide:  the hostages were released during the actual inauguration, and former President Carter flew off to welcome them home.

President Donald Trump has orchestrated a shutdown of the United States government.  He signaled the coming confrontation in a televised “meeting” with Democratic leaders Pelosi and Schumer; the goal to display Trump’s strength by being willing to “close it down” to get “Wall.”  Pelosi and Schumer used the cameras to make it very clear that a shutdown was “on Trump.”

A week later, he seemed poised to compromise, signaling to the Senate that he was willing to deal on “Wall” later.  After the Senate unanimously passed a Continuing Resolution keeping the government open, overnight the pressure from the media, particularly Fox and Friends and Rush Limbaugh, made Trump change his mind.  He ordered the Republican leadership in the House to pass a $5 Billion Wall bill, which the Senate rejected, and the shutdown was on.

Trump found himself trapped in the White House, much as Carter was forty years before.  He couldn’t go to Mar-A-Lago for the Christmas golf and buddy-fest; he had to stay in the White House, watch cable television and tweet.  When that became too much, he secretly flew to Iraq to do “Christmas with the troops,” but even that turned into an issue.  He tweeted the classified location of a Seal Team, and somehow his campaign paraphernalia ended up handed out to the military crowds. Trump Flags and MAGA Hats looked odd in the hands of American troops on foreign soil, and Trump’s campaign style speech made it worse.  On top of all that, he managed to offend the Iraqi government.

So he’s trapped back in Washington.  His lawyer, Rudy Giuliani complained that Nancy Pelosi went to Hawaii for Christmas (reported by Fox News and the rest of the alt-right press but oddly NO mainstream media outlet) but it only emphasized the point:  it’s Trump’s shutdown and he’s stuck.  

The Dems will stay out of town until Pelosi is installed as Speaker.  When she gets back in Washington, things won’t get much better for Trump.  

He can continue to keep the government closed, with over 800,000 employees without pay (he’s already rubbed salt in the wound by denying them a scheduled pay increase.)  He can demand that the Congress accede to his demand for “WALL.”  It seems unlikely that if the old Republican majority House and Senate couldn’t pass “WALL,” that a new Democratic majority in the House would do so. 

The House and Senate could agree to the original Continuing Resolution, but it would require Trump’s signature to become law.  If he refuses to sign, it seems unlikely that Congress could override it.  If nothing is solved – he will remain trapped in the White House, unable to get beyond the issue.  While his “shut down stand” may look strong to his base, his ineffectiveness, like Carter’s, will begin to take its toll.

If there is one way to characterize Mr. Trump, it’s “mercurial.”  He has consistently changed his mind on a dime.  So perhaps he’ll flip again, and make a deal with “Chuck and Nancy” for immigration reform with some “WALL” included:  but he’s already missed Christmas, and the 2018 New Year’s Eve Party at Mar-A-Lago without him will be — SAD. 

Raising the Stakes

President Trump is a man of his word; sort of.  Two weeks ago, he told incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer that he would shut down the government if he didn’t get $5 Billion for his border wall.  Then, he made a deal to keep the government open and argue the issue later, a deal Vice President Pence delivered to the US Senate.  That was the Continuing Resolution the Senate unanimously voted for; but then the President changed his mind.  He told outgoing Speaker Ryan to get his $5 Billion, and the House voted for that on party lines.  The Senate voted against it, and the government closed for lack of funds.

So the government shut down over Christmas.  Over 800,000 government employees are effected, some working without pay (including the Border Patrol, Coast Guard, and the TSA, airport security) and some were laid off.  Both of those groups expect to be paid for their lost time and money, though that is dependent on the President and Congress.  On the other hand, the contractors who work for the government, including thousands of custodians, just lost two weeks wages.  There has never been a “make-up” provision for them.

The Office of Personnel Management has sent out sample letters for employees to send to banks and landlords begging for extended time or reduced amounts.  That is of little help to those who are left with empty bank accounts.  The national impact is even greater: the 2013 shut down took $24 Billion out of the US economy, effecting us all.  That was thirteen days:  we already on the sixth day now.

Today President Trump raised the stakes even higher.  The President has threatened to close the entire Southern Border unless he gets his $5 Billion. Trade across the Southern Border is $1 BILLION A DAY:  the President is willing to shut this down not because of a particular security threat, but in anticipation of passing legislation that will fund what he wants, eventually.  The border wouldn’t remain shut until the “wall” is built, only until the President gets his way.

The President told Pelosi, Schumer and the country that he would take responsibility for the shut down, but now he’s blaming Pelosi, saying Schumer would make “a deal.”  He’s doing this because Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives come January 3^rd, and the President will be forced to deal with a Democratic House rather than one dominated by his friends in the Freedom Caucus.  Pelosi should put the Continuing Resolution to a vote in her House where it would pass.  The Senate, still controlled by the Republicans, would then be faced with the same “deal” they passed unanimously; but what Senator McConnell will allow the Senate to do is still unclear.

So what happens next? In the beginning of December there was a deal on the table for $1.6 Billion of “border security improvements.” With the new House, is that deal now off the table?  Or will McConnell, who was ambushed by the President in the first place, allow a vote on the Continuing Resolution?  Should that pass the Senate and House, will the President veto it?  And is it conceivable that Congress could generate a two-thirds override?  Some claim that’s possible, though I imagine the Republican Senate would rally round the President, and the shut down would continue.

There is still a deal to be made; though with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker it’s going to need more “sweeteners” for the Democrats.  DACA or other immigration reforms might be alternatives, and maybe $2 Billion for “border security” so the President can claim victory.  But if Mr. Trump is determined to get his $5 Billion without any form of compromise, then the author of  “The Art of the Deal” may find himself without a functioning government for a long term.  That may work to his advantage in delaying civil lawsuits in New York, but it’s no way to run a country.  

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Where Ends the First Amendment?

Steve Bannon sees himself as the maestro of the Trump 2016 victory.  He viewed Trump as a “tabula rasa,” a blank slate upon which he could write his own ideology.   While Trump “before Bannon” was already projecting some of those views, including the “America First” and “Make America Great Again” mantras; Bannon (and Stephen Miller) were instrumental in painting in the colors.

Bannon is a nationalist and has brought Trump to that belief.  Nationalism is defined in part by the word patriotism, a belief and pride in your country. But it goes farther than that, to a belief in the superiority of your country, and often your ethnic group or race, to the exclusion of others.  It is this xenophobic view that led to the extremes of 20^thCentury ideology, when nationalism morphed into Nazism and Fascism, and led the world to catastrophe.

Mr. Bannon doesn’t see it that way.  He sees the world as a “zero sum” game, where the United States either wins of loses. With that arithmetic, a global warming solution like the Paris Accords wasn’t acceptable.   Less advanced industrialized countries were given more leeway to pollute, while the more advanced sacrificed more (given that they were able to add a great deal of pollution as they developed.)   The logic of that fairness didn’t fit the equation of America “winning,” regardless that the ultimate outcome improved the entire world.

This same equation applies to other international groups, including the United Nations, where the raw power of the United States is restricted in order to gain the benefit of international cooperation.  Bannon’s view is that the US can “win” any one-on-one confrontation, so why should we “dilute our authority” by using an international organization. 

Bannon’s nationalism has also revealed the same ugly tendencies as the nationalist movements of the past.  His ethnic views have resulted in inhumanity at the US border with Mexico, and the mantra of illegal immigrants as “…rapists, murderers, and drug dealers” has opened the door to hatred.   His views have given us a look at our ugly past.

Bannon was fired by Trump, and now is working to export his views to the world.  Yesterday the Washington Post reported that one of Bannon’s closest European associates is seeking to rent an Italian Monastery, where, hidden in the mountain forest, he hopes to develop a“…gladiator school for culture warriors.”  Bannon’s efforts are already taking root in the United Kingdom with Brexit, Hungary with the election of Orban, and growing nationalist movements in Italy, Austria, Germany and France.

The “liberal” view of the First Amendment of the US Constitution is that in the “marketplace of ideas” all views can be aired, with the people being wise enough to chose “correctly.”  The Courts have explained the “slippery slope” of restricting freedom of speech, that once you begin down that path it becomes easier to restrict critical thought at every end of the spectrum.  

While defending the “right” to express ideas, regardless of how repugnant they may be, is ingrained in Constitutional lore, the First Amendment applies to governmental actions, not private choices.  While the government cannot, and should not, control speech, private industry is under no such restriction.  In our world today, where Facebook and Twitter control so much of our social/political communications, those organizations are not required to protect or promote “free speech.”  They make choices, clearly based on their own economic well-being, to determine who to amplify and who to restrict.

In the same way, private and public institutions such as universities have to decide whether to give a stage to nationalism.  This should be a decision based on the interests of the students, not fear of attack or violence from one side or the other.  The difficult problem:  when does a legitimate political view become a stage for political provocateurs whose goal is violence, not discussion.  

These choices become even more difficult when we know the “Pandora’s Box” that nationalism has been in the past.  There are those who say we “…have grown beyond the hatreds;” but ten minutes of Facebook, or a perusal of recent newspapers will demonstrate that folly.

These past few years have given us a peek under the lid; we can see the hatred and even violence that comes with it.   The question is:  are we strong enough to allow these views to have open discussion and amplification, or is the poison so dangerous that it must be quarantined from discussion? And, would a quarantine work, or would it simply “romanticize” nationalism, making it even more seductive?  These are the dangerous waters where Bannon, and Trump, have steered America.

The Calm Before the Storm

It must be eerie, wandering the halls of the Congress with no one there.  The offices have cleared out, an NBC reporter, standing in one of the office buildings, yelled for anyone to answer.  No one did, it’s as empty as a college dorm on vacation. It’s Christmas, and in our representative democracy, everyone is home – not in Washington, DC.  

Everyone, that is, except our “lonely” President, all by himself (well, there’s his staff, his wife, and his son) in the White House.  He has “shutdown” the government, at least twenty percent of it, to get his “Wall.”  In shutting down the government, he has trapped himself in Washington, unable to leave for his home in Florida.  The “optics” of the President playing golf while the government is “shut down” is too much even for Mr. Trump to take.  So he’s miserable, watching cable news, tweeting, and wanting to be anywhere else than in DC.  He’s like the exchange student at college, with nowhere to go for the holiday.

In Washington, some of the tourist sites are closed.  You can still wander the mall, and walk up to Mr. Lincoln on his chair, or Mr. Jefferson watching over the city.  But you can’t get into the restrooms there, or at the MLK or FDR memorials.  The Smithsonian museums are still open, at least until the 1^stof the year.

Congress is due back on Thursday, to try to work out some kind of arrangement with the President. While both sides claim to be immobile right now, there was a deal on the table a couple of weeks ago, a deal that could resolve the shut down.  If everyone gets miserable enough, perhaps those immovable forces will become ambulatory once again.  If not, a titanic struggle between the Democratic House and the President is coming soon, when Nancy Pelosi takes the gavel on January 3^rd.  

Still in the background are the next steps in the Mueller investigation.  The Supreme Court is hearing an unusual “sealed” appeal from the DC Appellate Court, fighting a Mueller subpoena.  It’s some kind of business, operating in the United States but owned by a foreign government.  The best bet is that it is a bank, perhaps Russian, refusing Mueller’s orders.  The Supreme Court is to make a decision before New Years.  

However that turns out, it seems clear that Mueller will soon release a series of indictments:  Roger Stone, Jerome Corsi, and maybe even Donald Trump Jr and Jared Kushner.   NBC news claims to have information that Mueller will release his “report on the President” sometime in February, though it’s odd that this is one of the few pieces of information leaking from the Special Counsel’s office.  Maybe the Acting Attorney General will let us see it, but more likely the House Judiciary Committee will have to force it out of him.  

And there’s still the fallout from the President’s Syria withdrawal order, and the proposed Afghanistan plan to withdraw, and the resignation of Defense Secretary Mattis, and the new Attorney General to be appointed.

So maybe it’s a good time for some quiet reflection.  We are poised on the brink of 2019, a year when many things will be figured out. Our nation, in turmoil just as we were in December of 1973, will be a nation resolved, one way or another, in December of 2019.  We will need to weather the storms, perhaps of impeachment, perhaps of Court Trials and Congressional Hearings, perhaps of intrigue and plots involving foreign governments.  Those storms will lead to crisis, but crisis also will lead to resolution.  For those who’ve been waiting since November of 2016, this is going to be the year. 

Regardless of that, we will need to prepare for the elections of 2020, to prevent our foreign and domestic enemies from manipulating our electoral process and our social media to reach some pre-determined outcome.  We are not innocent, even our own political parties the Democrats and Republicans, are “experimenting” with the same processes that Cambridge Analytica and Russian Intelligence used.  We might stop the Russian Internet Research Agency (where most of the Russian social media attacks originated) but we may need to stop actors here in our own country.  

Those attacks will continue to try to pry further wedges into our political divisions.  Not only will Trumpers be pushed by Republicans, but Bernies will be pushed from the mainstream of the Democratic Party.  Some of the dissension will be real and heartfelt, but pressure will be generated from the outside.  We need to be careful to keep our differences internal.

So enjoy the holidays, the calm before the storm.  When it all begins again, it will be for real and for good.  Senator Robert Kennedy, living in the tumultuous time of 1968 often spoke of the old Chinese curse: “may you live in interesting times…” He’d follow it up with – “…like it or not, we live in interesting times.” 2019 is our “interesting times;” so Happy New Year; and, as Rachel Maddow would say, “buckle up.”

Merry Christmas!!!  Here’s a wonky one about the Constitution and the President.  Enjoy – and have a great holiday!!!!!

One President, One Power

It’s an interesting theory, the Unitary Executive Principle.  And it actually makes some sense.  It says that the President of the United States is the Chief Executive of his branch (The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America, US Constitution, Article 2, §1); and therefore everything done by departments, agencies, and members of the Executive Branch are done in his name.  So, continues the theory, when the Justice Department investigates other actions of the Executive Branch, particularly the President himself, the investigation is being done with the tacit consent of the President himself, since he is literally investigating himself.

This would mean that the President can stop any investigation by his branch that he chooses, as he is the ultimate boss.  Firing FBI Director James Comey, or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, or Special Counsel Robert Mueller, would all be “OK;” it’s all under his purview as President.

And it also means that the President is “incapable” of obstructing justice.  Any interference or lying he would do to the investigators is “OK;” he’s just lying to his own employees.  And it allows him to communicate with his employees:  talking to Acting Attorney General Matt Whittaker about the Mueller Investigation would be just fine. (Note – this would not be true about lying to the Courts or to Congress – as they are separate and co-equal branches.   But HIS Justice Department couldn’t bring charges on those lies, as he would be “charging himself.”)

This is the basis of the “legal” defense of President Trump.  Rudy Giuliani tries to explain it, though he often seems to get lost in the process.  Alan Dershowitz condescendingly  pushes it on Fox News, and the new candidate for Attorney General, Bill Barr, put the theory at the heart of his unsolicited twenty page memo to the Justice Department and the White House, his “try-out” for the job.

They say the ONLY way to stop a “criminal” President is through the Impeachment and Removal process of Congress.  Other than that, to use the famous Trump example, he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and no one would do anything.

But the Unitary Executive Principal flies in the face of the Constitutional concept of “equal protection” under law (US Constitution, Amendment 14,§1 .)  It also ignores the wording of Article II and the intent of the Founding Fathers.

The President shall be commander in chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the militia of the several states, when called into the actual service of the United States; he may require the opinion, in writing, of the principal officer in each of the executive departments, upon any subject relating to the duties of their respective offices, and he shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment.  (US Constitution, Article 2, §2, paragraph 1).

He is the Commander in Chief of the military.  That is his “commanding” role.  He may require the opinion of the principal officer of the departments (confirmed by the Senate per Article 2, §2, paragraph 2) and while he is invested with the “Executive Authority,”  that authority is not the absolute power of a king, nor is it constitutionally the same power as Commander-in-Chief.  If the founding fathers had wanted it to be, they would have said so (yes – for this moment I do sound like the Federalist Society!)

The Founding Fathers never wanted a President who was a “scofflaw,” unwilling to abide by the laws that bind all citizens.  They saw the Presidency as a carefully circumscribed protector of those laws, and all citizens.

The President of the United States is Constitutionally required to “…preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States,” (Article 2, §1, paragraph 8.)  A President who is using the powers of his office to further his own personal gain, or to hide his own criminal activity, is clearly not fulfilling that obligation.  A President might legally be able to pardon, but if he does so with the intent of hiding his own crimes,  he would still be violating the law by obstructing justice.  The pardoned person would probably remain pardoned, but the President would have committed an offense.

The United States NEVER conceived of a Presidency of absolute power. George Washington didn’t claim such a thing, and in fact, went to great lengths to avoid it.  Abraham Lincoln, faced with the greatest Constitutional crisis of our history, pushed the envelope of executive authority by exercising his plenary power as Commander-in-Chief, but that was quickly reined-in after his death and the end of the war. Nixon didn’t even make such a claim as he orchestrated a criminal conspiracy from the Oval Office.  He made his deal and left.

Which, by the way, I would be perfectly content to have Trump do.  Conspiracy to defraud the United States, acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign country, obstructing justice, lying to Federal investigators, and violating the emoluments clause of the Constitution  are all crimes he may have committed.  Resign and take your family with you.  I’m sure there’s a deal to be made, letting you keep some of your “Trumpers;” before you put the nation through another Impeachment and our first Removal from office.

Is It Panic Time?

Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis wrote a carefully constructed letter of  resignationlast week.  In it, he elegantly put forward the reasons he couldn’t continue to work for a President who seemed intent on “deconstructing” (Bannon’s word, not Mattis’s) the alliance systems that have stabilized the globe since World War II.  In it Mattis said, 

My views on treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of immersion in these issues.

“Four decades of immersion” for the General, to be contrasted with the President’s transitory interest in American foreign policy.  A “clear-eyed” view of malign actors, contrasted with the President closeness to Putin, Kim, Erdogan, and Duterte.  “Treating allies with respect” versus following a whim on a phone call and abandoning the Kurds to the Turks.

Mattis was done.  He fulfilled his duty as Secretary of Defense until he could no longer see a way forward.  And in leaving the office, he shared with the nation his reasoning, and ultimately his fears.  It took the interpretation of the media for President Trump to realize what Mattis really said, and in true Trumpian fashion, the President responded by tweeting that Mattis would be replaced as of January 1^st.   It is the old saw:  “you can’t quit, you’re fired.”

With the departure of Mattis, the “three generals” who were supposed to guide Trump are all gone: Mattis, Kelly and McMasters.  And with their departure a lot of the stability those men brought to the table is gone as well.  What they all three found was that no matter how much “immersion” in the events of the world they had with experience they literally earned in battle:  if the President wouldn’t listen to them, it made no difference.

So “the generals” are leaving.  The President struggled to find anyone to serve as his Chief of Staff; Mick Mulvaney of the Freedom Caucus, the Office of Management and Budget and the Consumer Protection Bureau was the last on the list and is now “temporarily” on the job.  And Mr. Trump has now been pushed into an ill advised government shutdown, not by the Republicans in Congress but by the shrill voices of the far-right as heard through Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and Fox and Friends.  Their advice is what seems to count.

We don’t currently know how much effect the pressure of the scandals of the administration is having on the President.  He surely realizes that the Democratic Congress will soon be digging into every aspect of his election and his Presidency.  And the long shadow of the Mueller investigation looms;  the next round of indictments will cut close to his friends and family. 

Mr. Trump can’t go to Mar-A-Lago for Christmas.  It’s not just the shutdown; how is he supposed to face his “friends at the club” with the disarray that surrounds him. They’ve lost millions in the market this month.  His “kitchen cabinet” there will tell him things he doesn’t want to hear, it’s better to surround himself with…Stephen Miller and Trump’s constantly used twitter account?  

What is clear is that the President has sold out to maintain his “base.”  Politically, the one area where President Trump has shown brilliance, he knows he cannot survive, much less run for re-election, without their support.  So whatever “wall” really is:  concrete, or brick, or steel slats; he’s got to fight for it, whether it actually happens or not.  It’s about votes in the Senate in the impeachment trial, not defending the border.

The United States is much like a great ocean liner.  No matter what commands are given at the helm, the momentum of its direction is so great that it takes miles and miles to accelerate, or turn, or stop.  For the past two years of the Trump Presidency, America has continued on the momentum of the past decade; economically improving and serving as the world’s ultimate authority.  But even this ship must be guided, and should a real crisis occur; should an iceberg appear on the horizon; who will guide it to safety?  

It certainly doesn’t feel like this President will, and the number of “steady hands” within earshot are fewer and fewer.  It might be “panic time,” if only panic would provide some alternative to the present. But it doesn’t – so we will have to live through whatever challenge the horizon brings.  Let’s hope we can avoid sinking.

Merry Christmas Rush

It’s not a small group that listens to Rush Limbaugh, or gets their daily “news” from “Fox and Friends.”  It is in the millions, nearly thirteen million weekly listeners for Rush, and one and a half million morning Fox viewers.  That’s a lot of Americans, and for the President of the United States, that’s a lot of Americans who agree with him.  

The Mueller Investigation has placed the Trump Presidency under a microscope.  Already several of the “President’s Men” are convicted felons, clearly more are coming under scrutiny.  Who knows when the next “shoe will drop” from the Special Counsel, perhaps members of the President’s own family are soon to be in the dock.  

The Democratic House of Representatives will join-in come January, taking away Trump’s biggest defenders, the Freedom Caucus.  No longer will Jim Jordan, Mark Meadows, and Trey Gowdy be able to distract with Hillary’s emails or Stzrok’s love notes; now it’s going to be all Trump, all the time. Intelligence, Judiciary, and Oversight Committees are just a few that will be sending subpoenas and demanding answers.

The President’s only choice is to maintain strict control of his base.  The support of the “Trumpers” allows him to blackmail the rest of the Republican Party.  His control is so great that the Republican National Committee is going to merge with the Trump 2020 campaign (and we thought the Democrats were bad to Bernie.)  It’s kept Speaker Ryan in line; he is willing to end his Speakership in a government shutdown.  He can’t do much more than laugh (not so funny to the millions impacted.) The President’s got them all by the votes.

So when Rush and the “guys” on Fox and Friends speak, the President needs to listen.  He can’t afford any cracks in his base.   He sold his base on a single concept, from the moment his came down the golden escalator in Trump Tower back in 2015 and announced his candidacy:  WALL.  (Somewhere, somehow, we lost the articles that go with it, it’s not THE WALL or A WALL or SOME WALL, it’s simply WALL, the way a two-year old would say it.  Secretary of Homeland Security Neilsen even stated it that way in Congressional testimony; “…we need WALL.”)

WALL started out as “the Great WALL of Trump” like the Great Wall of China:  a shining concrete edifice that would stretch from the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean.  And, of course, for some inextricable reason Mexico would pay for it.  No matter that it wasn’t the best way to secure the border, or that it would destroy many natural wonders along the way, or that it would take thousands of acres of private property, or that the President of Mexico said “F**K no we’re not paying for it.”  Trump sold his base WALL, and now he has to deliver.

Rush Limbaugh and Fox and Friends may have a better understanding of the future than the President. After two years of not being able to get WALL through a Republican controlled House and Senate, now the House, where WALL got the most support, is going to be Democratic.  It’s WALL now or never!!!!!  When President Trump went along with his Congressional leaders and agreed to sign a continuing resolution pushing WALL debate into February, Rush and “the Friends” raised “HELL.”  So, after sending Vice President Pence to the Senate to reassure them that the “clean CR” was fine, and that they could vote and go home; Trump woke up to “HELL” on his favorite shows.  Rush was screaming from his studio just down the road from Trump’s Mar-A-Lago home, and the “Friends” were scourging Sarah Huckabee Sanders from New York on the morning show.  How could the President let this chance go by to get WALL?

It’s not a sign of Presidential strength, but weakness.  The President of the United States is under investigation, abandoned by “the adults” in the White House, and looking at possible impeachment. He’s only got Don Jr., Jared, Ivanka, Eric and his base, a base represented by Rush and Fox.  Now no matter what he told the Senate, Mitch or Mike; he has to make a stand for WALL.

The government didn’t have to shut down.  There was a deal on the table before Trump made his public spectacle with Leaders Pelosi and Schumer.  $1.6 billion for “border improvements,” the Dems could call it repairs, the President could say he got WALL.  That deal is still on the table, though Dems are now strengthened by the President’s actions.  He’s GOT to WIN, for Rush, Fox and his base.  So he’s got to get something, and the Dems will get more in return.  It’ll happen, maybe today, maybe tomorrow, maybe as a Christmas miracle.  But it will happen, and Dems will get a present they didn’t expect.

Merry Christmas Rush – you’ve delivered again.

Birds of a Feather

President Trump announced Wednesday, via tweet, that the United States was withdrawing troops from Syria. Two thousand American forces are there, fighting the remains of ISIS side by side with our allies from Iraq, the Kurds. There was no warning of his decision; not to the Defense Department and Secretary Mattis or General Dunford; not to the State Department and Secretary Pompeo; not to the Congress; and not to our allies.  Secretary Mattis has resigned as a result.

The President has “declared victory” over ISIS, and is determined to leave.  This is a time honored American tradition, starting with Nixon’s Vietnamization strategy and leading to Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” sign in Iraq.  We don’t “win,” we find an “exit strategy.”  We do seem to have ISIS on the ropes, estimates are that as many as three thousand ISIS fighters are left from the thirty-five thousand that began the year.   Most American strategists see that they are near finished in Syria, though there are ISIS fighters in Yemen, Libya, Nigeria, and scattered areas throughout the world.

The President’s abrupt proclamation leave our allies flat-footed; particularly the Kurdish forces.  The Kurds from Northern Iraq have proven to be most loyal, instrumental in winning the battles against ISIS in Iraq and continuing into Syria.  They also are the strongest force in Iraq standing against Iran.  We have served as “protection” for the Kurds from their enemies, particularly Turkey, who plans to exterminate them.  By abandoning them, we are not only leaving them to the ISIS remains, but also to the assaults of Turkish and Iranian forces.

President Erdogan of Turkey sees the Kurds, not ISIS, as the biggest threat to his regime.  For over a century there has been pressure from the large Kurdish minority in Eastern Turkey for more autonomy or even independence. The Turkish Kurds get support from their kinsmen in Northern Iraq, and Erdogan has continually moved to suppress them. With the US withdrawing, the Kurds are left caught between ISIS, the Assad regime forces in Syria, and the Turks. 

President Putin of Russia has fully backed the Syrian forces led by Assad.  Six years ago Assad was near disaster, caught in a civil war between his forces, reformers originally supported by the US, and ISIS.  He has been willing to use chemical warfare and weapons of mass destruction on his own civilians.  It was only with Russian backing that he was able to regain control of most of the country:  with ISIS dwindling, the US and the Kurds are the only forces that stand in the way of his total control.

Ultimately the United States is the reason for the current situation in the Middle East.  The invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the removal of the brutal dictator Saddam Hussein destabilized the region and empowered Iran. The US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 set the stage for the creation of ISIS, who conquered much of Syria and Iraq. The US was forced to return there to help Iraqi and Kurdish forces re-conquer Iraq and destroy ISIS.  The forces now in Syria, as well as the five thousand remaining in Iraq, are serving that continuing mission.

There is an ongoing political controversy about whether the US should have invaded Iraq, and the steps we took once we did so.  However, it does seem that this current strategy has been more effective, using a minimum number of US forces to stop ISIS and keep Iraq stable.  With only a small number of ISIS forces left, it would seem reasonable to actually finish the job before we withdraw.

President Trump must be acting on the advice of Turkish President Erdogan; they spoke last week.  Erdogan notified Trump that Turkey plans on waging a campaign against the Kurds.  Trump’s own advisors, including National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary Mattis, have been unanimous for staying in Syria until ISIS is eliminated, and standing by our Kurdish allies.  But the President has accepted the views of Erdogan and Putin over his own advisors.  Now Erdogan is delaying his offensive, happy to wait until the US Forces withdraw.

Just yesterday the President asked for a plan for rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan.  Again, on the surface that isn’t a bad thing; we have been fighting in Afghanistan for seventeen years and have little to show for it. But without consultation with NATO allies and provisions for sustaining the Afghan Army training mission, we are simply abandoning this post as well. 

 The US is continuing a policy of withdrawing from world leadership. From pressuring NATO to the Paris Accord, the US under President Trump is becoming self-absorbed.  Certainly the ongoing internal political crisis is making it even easier to put “America First” and ignore the rest of the world’s problems.  So it shouldn’t be a big surprise that we would withdraw from Syria or Afghanistan.

Finding ways to end US combat involvement is a generally good thing.  The issue is:  with the US so close to finishing off ISIS, wouldn’t it make more sense to complete that work and really be able to declare “mission accomplished?”  And wouldn’t it make long-term sense to show some loyalty to those forces that have fought beside us?

 With the current crisis in confidence in our own President, wouldn’t it be better if some of his own advisors agreed with his decision? And, of course, with the real concern that Trump might be in some way compromised by other nations, wouldn’t we all feel better if Trump’s buddies, Erdogan and Putin, didn’t think this was a good idea?

One Angry American

Judge Emmet Sullivan of the Federal District Court in the District of Columbia is an angry man. Sullivan, the judge presiding over the Michael Flynn case, was supposed to sentence Flynn as part of a plea bargain agreement with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office.  It was a “sweetheart deal;” Flynn pled guilty to one count of lying to FBI agents, the rest of his many (many) potential crimes were wiped away, and he was liable to serve up to six month in jail.  The Mueller team recommended zero time based on the amount of cooperation Flynn gave them.

In attempting to further mitigate any possible jail sentence, Flynn’s attorneys posited that the General had been “set up” by the FBI during questioning.  They suggested that Flynn was not warned of his right to an attorney, and that the questioning was what Rudy Giuliani would call a “perjury trap” (note:  the way to avoid any perjury trap; don’t lie.)  they also claimed that two of the three FBI personnel that were involved with the  Flynn questioning, Deputy Assistant Director for Counter-Intelligence Peter Strzok and Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, were involved in some other improprieties that raised questions about their actions. 

Part of any plea bargain is the defendant accepting responsibility for the offenses.  Flynn had done so, pleading guilty to lying to the FBI.  But now, his attorneys seemed to be raising questions about the validity of that plea. Judge Sullivan’s primary job in a courtroom is to make sure that justice is served.  If Flynn wasn’t guilty, then Sullivan couldn’t allow him to take the plea.

So Sullivan swore Flynn in, and placed him under penalty of perjury: if he didn’t tell the truth it could be a five year maximum sentence.  Sullivan asked him if he felt he was “set up” by the FBI.  Flynn said no.  Sullivan asked him if he knew it was against the law to lie to the FBI.  Flynn, at the time National Security Advisor, a three-star general and former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said he did. Sullivan asked Flynn if he felt the FBI personnel involved were in some way biased against him.  Flynn said no.

Flynn took full responsibility for his lies to the FBI.  He should have; he must have known that the FBI had transcripts of his conversations with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.  The phones of Russian officials in the United States are routinely tapped, he would have seen similar transcripts as the DIA director.   From the transcripts of the FBI interview, we know that the agents quoted verbatim from the conversation.  Inexplicably, Flynn continued to lie about it.

Judge Sullivan was assured that Flynn was accepting responsibility for his actions.  But the Judge had been given access to all of the unredacted  information given to him by the Mueller team.  He also was made aware of an indictment filed the day before in Alexandria, Virginia, where Flynn was an unindicted co-conspirator.  If that indictment was charged to Flynn, he would be subject to years in Federal prison.

Flynn was a good general gone bad.  He was fired by President Obama from the Defense Intelligence Agency job, then retired from the military.  He immediately moved to monetize his skills and experiences, and soon made deals with the Turkish government.  Ultimately he was acting as an unregistered agent for Turkey, representing their interest in trying to gain custody of Fethullah Gulen, a US resident who was the longtime antagonist of Turkish President Erdogan.  That representation may have continued while he was serving as National Security Advisor.

He also had contacts with Russia, including making paid speeches in Russia and literally sitting at the right hand of Vladimir Putin.  His Russian connections ultimately led the FBI to him, as one of the four “persons of interest” in the original investigation of Russian contacts with the Trump campaign.

Judge Sullivan saw all of this, and much more in the unredacted Special Counsel Report.  He recognized the obvious:  a man who had dedicated himself to service of the United States was now serving other nations while taking one of the highest national security jobs in our government.  Sullivan reached a reasonable conclusion:  Flynn was an agent of foreign powers while acting as the President’s chief advisor.

Sullivan was clearly outraged.  He stated that Flynn “…sold his country out.”  He asked if Flynn could have been charged with treason.  He made it very clear, that regardless of the “deal” made with the Special Counsel, he was seriously considering putting Flynn in prison.  He even intimated that the sentence might be longer than the “sentencing guidelines,” and suggested to Flynn that, “…the more you assist the government, the more you help yourself.”

The Defense accepted a recess, and then asked for a delay in sentencing.  Judge Sullivan pushed the hearing into March.  And, probably, he will then be more convinced of reasons for giving Flynn a deal.  But Sullivan was expressing what many Americans feel:  that this General has disgraced the uniform he served, and abandoned the flag he honored.  Sullivan made it clear that Flynn was getting off far too easy for the crimes he committed.  

We don’t know what Flynn has told the Mueller Team.  Perhaps his testimony is so significant, that it is worth the “cost” of giving him a pass. But Judge Sullivan didn’t think so, and he might not be wrong:  Mueller is going to have to really prove it’s worth it, or Flynn’s going to jail.  It’s where he belongs.

Health Insurance 

I listened to a podcast by Chris Hayes, the MSNBC commentator, called “Why is this Happening?.”  Chris was interviewing Abdul El-Sayed, the former Director of Health for Detroit, and a candidate for Governor in Michigan.  (if you have a 40 minute drive, it’s absolutely worth the time –Why is this Happening?)

There is a lot to talk about, but the interview helped me clarify some of the health care issues. The first was the difference between “single payer” insurance, and “nationalized medicine.”  Single payer means that private providers (doctors, hospitals, pharmacies) are paid be a single “insurance” entity.  It changes the health care cost equation in two ways. 

First, it takes the “insurance entity,” “Medicare for all” for the sake of discussion, and makes it a powerful bargaining tool.  Currently, large insurance companies bargain with providers for reduced costs.  The larger the insurance company, the better the “deal”.  We see this reflected in hospital bills, where we see a “retail” cost, a “charged” cost, as much as forty percent less, and the difference that the patient might have to pay.  Those without insurance pay the “retail cost:” no wonder they go broke in a medical crisis.

A single payer “Medicare for all” plan would make the insurance provider a massively powerful bargainer.  This is already recognized, as the GW Bush administration specifically prevented the current Medicare plan from negotiating for lower drug prices (Kaiser Family Foundation.)  An expansion to “Medicare for all” should include the power to negotiate, while allowing for pharmaceutical companies to continue research. The “cost of the first pill” needs to be recognized, but the cost of stable and unchanged drugs, like insulin, should be controlled (Humalog insulin prices have tripled in the past decade – CBS.)

A single payer program could reduce medical costs.  The United States has some of the best medical care in the world, but it also has the MOST expensive medical costs in the world.  In 2016, the average medical cost per person in the United States was $10348.  The next highest was Switzerland at $7919, while Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Sweden were all in the $5000’s (Kaiser Family Foundation.)  

A single payer system is NOT Nationalized Medicine (like the United Kingdom) or, dare I say it, “socialized Medicine.”  The pharmacies, hospitals, and doctors remain private entities.  A single payer system takes out the cost of insurance company profits (in 2017, the top six insurance companies made $6 Billion, up 29% from the year before, CNBC.)  And while the health insurance companies, Anthem, United Health Care and the like, would be out of business, their employees would not be.  They would still be needed to provide the services for the new “Medicare for All” program, just as CMS runs the current Medicare.

By the way, “Medicare for all” should NOT threaten existing Medicare.  Republican Senator Roy Blount (MO) used the current fear-mongering catchphrase on Meet the Press this week, “Medicare for all will be Medicare for none.”  This makes the invalid assumption that the current Medicare resources would have to deal with the incredibly expanded patient base of “Medicare for all.”  But, of course, that wouldn’t be true, the resources would have to be expanded in conjunction with the patients.  The Republican criticism is just a way to scare those “old folks” (I have two and a half years to go) who use and love Medicare now.

So a single payer system, well organized and staffed (like current Medicare) would reduce medical costs and remove a substantial cost in insurance company profits.  But it wouldn’t be free.  Medicare isn’t free now either.

Everyone with insurance pays something for it.  In our current employer-based insurance environment, a portion of insurance cost is part of your “pay.”  That part is paid directly by the employer, while the remaining costs are paid by the employee.  Under “single payer” the employer no longer has an insurance responsibility. Employers could (whether they would or not) pay their “share” amount directly to the employee in wages, who would then “pay” for single payer through taxes.  Estimates show that while “TAXES WOULD GO UP” (of course) payers would no longer pay the now continually rising cost of medical insurance, for a net decrease in cost to the individual.

Personally we have a great healthcare plan, the advantage of being retired government employees.  We pay almost $5000 a year (for the two of us); it’s a great deal considering what the retail cost of insuring two retirees is.  But we are in a unique position; there are many Americans who pay much more for less quality insurance, and many who cannot afford insurance (and can’t qualify for Medicaid.)  

The cost of medical care is careening out of control.  Our system may work for many of the 90% of Americans that have insurance, but the cost is increasingly steep.  And for the 28 million Americans that don’t have insurance, it doesn’t work at all (US Census.)  We need to look at alternatives without the scare tactics of loaded terms like “socialism” and “losing Medicare benefits.”  We are paying more than the rest of the world for care, and that “more” is simply going to profit of hospital systems, insurance companies, and pharmaceutical firms.  While We are a capitalist country and they have the right to a profit, it should not be at the expense of the health of Americans.