It’s November of 2019.  In exactly one year, the citizens of the United States will be going to the polls. The will choose a President, the entire House of Representatives, and one third of the Senate.  They will have a choice of either continuing “Trumpism” or putting an end to the radical regression that his “reign” represents. 

Watch the Process

We aren’t the only ones making that choice.   The narrow Brexit victory of 2016 in the United Kingdom predicted the rise of Trump in the United States.  The voters of the UK will be returning to the polls this December, trying one more time to untie the political Gordian knot that Brexit has created.  It will be instructive not only in its outcome, but in how external forces impact the voting.

Cambridge Analytica, a prime force in the original Brexit verdict is no longer around; but the voter identification and persuasion techniques they pioneered are still available to others.  And while voters are more aware now of the impact of State actors like Russian Intelligence, than they were in 2016; it’s likely the Russians will still try to influence the UK’s choice.

At stake, both in the UK and the US, is our faith in the fundamental security of our election process.  Regardless of the outcome, these tests will determine whether we believe in Democracy or not.  American national security expert Malcolm Nance warns, “…This may be the last free and fair election in America.”  If we lose faith in the veracity of the outcome, we will have no motivation to participate.  

Endless Campaigns

Voter turnout in the United Kingdom averages over 70% (Research Briefings.)   The US turnout is dramatically lower, with 56% voting in the 2016 election (Pew.)  Should citizens come to believe that their votes are manipulated or not counted; then even fewer will vote, making it even easier to alter the outcome.

So in the next weeks and months, there’s a lot at stake in the US and the UK.

By the way, the UK at least knows how to “rip the bandage off.”  Their election campaign is six weeks long.  Here in the US, we have already been debating and campaigning, narrowing candidates for the President since last winter.  And we have fifty-two weeks to go.  It will be tough to get anything else accomplished: we may be paralyzed by the preparations to make a decision.

We are already mired in that indecision.  As the Democrat controlled House of Representatives investigates impeachment, the Republican Senate is contemplating whether it’s “proper” to hold a trial on the President’s actions in an election year.

Avoiding Decisions

There is existing precedent for this.  Mitch McConnell, the Republican Majority Leader of the Senate, determined in 2016 that the Senate could not consider a Supreme Court appointment during an election cycle.  McConnell ignored Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s choice for the open seat on the Court.  He instead successfully gambled on a Trump victory in the election, and gained the opportunity to fill the vacancy with Neil Gorsuch instead.

Republican are already making their “case” for not following through on an impeachment trial, or worse, issuing a “summary judgment” to avoid a decision.  It’s easy to imagine them arguing that, while the President’s behavior is egregious, it doesn’t rise to the level of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”  They may hide behind the “fig leaf” of protecting the “decision of the people,” pass the buck, and prolong the indecision until November of 2020.

Trump is not Trumpism

Even the Senate removing Donald Trump from office wouldn’t completely alter the arc of US politics.  Trump is a force unto himself, but his ideology is entrenched into a significant portion of the American political body.  We already can see others maneuvering to inherit his political legacy, Lindsey Graham and Mike Pence to name two.

So even in the unlikely even that the President is removed from office, it won’t mean “the end” of anything.  It still requires an election to determine the course of America.  

It’s all in the year ahead.

Quid Pro Quo

President Trump demanded that the Ukrainian Government investigate Joe Biden.  He had “an offer they couldn’t refuse;” either start a public inquiry into Biden, or not receive the military aid they desperately needed to fight Russia.  

And Trump has done this before.  On the White House lawn he asked China to investigate Biden.  This deal was less obvious, but the US was literally sitting at the negotiating table with China at that moment.  And of course, there is the famous line:  “Russia, if you’re listening, find Hillary Clinton’s 30,000 emails…” Russian military intelligence began attacking Clinton’s servers almost immediately.

So President Trump has asked foreign nations to help against his political opponents quite often.  This isn’t a “question;” he’s said it “in the public square.” It is fact. But he’s not the first President to try to manipulate other nations for domestic political gain.  He, in true Trumpian fashion, just takes it “to the max” and does it out in the open. 

There are at least two other times when Presidential candidates offered some kind of deal, a “quid pro quo” to a foreign power.  Both actions are still shrouded in history; as much rumor and legend as fact.  But perhaps more importantly, they were done by two Presidents that Donald Trump respects as role models:  Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

1968 Election

The year 1968 was one of the most divisive times in American history.  There was a nexus of movements:  the civil rights movement, the anti-Vietnam war movement, and the “hippie” movement all came to a head.  It was the year of assassinations; both Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy were killed in the spring.   It was a year of protest, riot, and demands for change.

Politically Democrats were split. It was the party of war, with President Johnson orchestrating. And it was also the party of dissent, with Eugene McCarthy and later Bobby Kennedy running for the Democratic Presidential nomination on anti-war platforms.  McCarthy was so effective that Johnson dropped out of the race, his spot taken by his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey.  

This left the Party fractured, with McCarthy not having enough backing from the “old line” party members, and Kennedy gone.  Humphrey won the nomination, but it was a tarnished victory.  Rioting tore the Chicago Convention apart, and the heavy-handed tactics of Chicago’s Mayor Daley made any kind of unification impossible.

The Republicans nominated Richard Nixon, who came back from defeats in 1960 and 1962 .   Nixon touted his secret “peace plan” to end the war, but absolutely didn’t align himself with anti-war forces.

Secret Plan

Humphrey was tied to Johnson and the war.  Johnson was attempting to negotiate a ceasefire with the North Vietnamese in Paris, an “October Surprise” that could tip the balance in the highly divided election. 

Nixon was desperately afraid that Johnson would end the war before the election, assuring Humphrey’s victory.  He turned to a shadowy figure in American history, Anna Chenault, the widow of World War II general Claire Chenault and a powerful figure in the Republican Party.  Nixon tasked Chenault with making sure that the South Vietnamese government, our allies, refused to cooperate with President Johnson in the Paris negotiations (Politico.) 

The “quid pro quo:” if the South Vietnamese government tanked the peace conference, Nixon would get South Vietnam a “better deal” when he became President.

Johnson knew about it before the election.  He called Republican leaders, and Nixon himself, demanding that they stop. Of course they denied any knowledge of Chenault’s actions.  But Johnson didn’t reveal any of this to the public, and on Election Day, Nixon eked out victory over Humphrey by .7% of the popular vote.

When Nixon took office, he “doubled down” on US involvement in the War and support of the South Vietnamese government.  It took seven more years for the United States to fully leave Vietnam, and when we did, the South Vietnamese government was totally defeated.  Today Vietnam remains one of the few solidly Communist nations in the world.

A Hostage in the White House

Forty years ago, on November 4^th, 1979, fifty-two Americans were taken hostage in the US Embassy in Tehran, Iran.  The American ally, the Shah of Iran, was overthrown, and Muslim hardliners lead by the Ayatollah Khomeini had control.  The Shah was exiled to the United States; Iran wanted to trade them for the Shah.

President Jimmy Carter struggled to find a way to free the hostages.  It was a year from the 1980 Presidential election and the crisis became the most important issue.  Carter attempted to rescue them, the first use of the new “Delta Force.”  Dust storms and inexperience caused the operation to fail, and the Iranians were left with abandoned helicopters to use as a display of American ineptness.

Early on, Carter promised not to campaign until the hostages were freed, and while he ultimately came out, it was another example of his inability to control the situation.

What Iran Needs

Ronald Reagan, former Governor of California, was the Republican candidate for President in 1980.  The threat of an “October Surprise,” Carter freeing the hostages; was the key to victory.  

Reagan’s actions are still obscured.  In the middle of the campaign summer of 1980, campaign manager William Casey (later appointed director of the CIA) went to Madrid, Spain.  At that time, he supposedly met with Iranian officials, and offered incentives for a “better deal” if they held the hostages until after the election, avoiding a Carter “October Surprise” (LA Times.) 

Reagan won an overwhelming victory over Carter.  The Iranians announced that the hostages would be freed on Reagan’s inauguration day.  Jimmy Carter flew to Germany to meet them.  Not long after, the Reagan administration allowed Israel to sell US made anti-tank weapons to Iran, to use in their ongoing conflict with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

Facts and Rumors

We now know that the story of Nixon and Anna Chenault is true.  What Reagan did or didn’t do is still not as clear.  But we can draw some conclusions.  The Trump Presidency clearly is influenced by Nixon’s actions.  Roger Stone, who began his political career as a Nixon “dirty trickster,” has had tremendous political sway over Donald Trump.  

And Reagan legacy is the Trump “touchstone.”   “Making America Great Again” and Trump’s fixation with “Wall” (Trump wants to build one, Reagan wanted one tore down) are intentional echoes of the Reagan Presidency.

Trump is so drawn to the two Presidents, is it really isn’t a surprise that he would follow their example of using foreign intervention to influence American elections?  Creating or avoiding the “October Surprise” is a Republican tradition; Trump is simply bringing it out to the full light of public scrutiny:  ask Hillary Clinton.

Dubious Honor

Thursday the United States House of Representatives formalized the impeachment investigation into the President of the United States. In the two hundred thirty one year Constitutional history of the nation, this is only the fourth time.

The reasons for impeaching and removing the President are defined in the Constitution: treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanors. The definition of treason and bribery are clear. It is what defines “high crimes and misdemeanors” that makes it difficult for Congress.

President Donald Trump now joins an ominous list. Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and William Clinton:  all Presidents who have faced the ultimate rebuke by Congress.

Lincoln’s Decision

Andrew Johnson became Abraham Lincoln’s Vice President in 1864, as part of the “National Union” Party.  Lincoln’s Republicans were worried that they would lose the Presidential election in 1864.  The war in Virginia was bloody and discouraging, and the public grew weary of long casualty lists in the newspapers.  A war “hero,” General George McClellan, was on the Democratic ticket.

To gain re-election, Lincoln replaced his Vice President, Hannibal Hamlin a Republican from Maine, with a Democrat. Andrew Johnson was the military governor of Tennessee, a Democrat from the South who remained loyal to the Union.  

When Lee surrendered his Confederate Army in Virginia to Grant, the nation was overjoyed. The War was soon over.  But only a week later that joy dissolved when John Wilkes Booth assassinated Lincoln in Ford’s Theatre.  Lincoln’s death left the Republican Party in a true dilemma; the new President, their new President, was a Southern Democrat.

A Political Impeachment

Over the next three years, the Republican Congress constantly clashed with Johnson over how to reunite the nation, and reconstruct the South.  Johnson vetoed twenty-nine bills passed by Congress, and they over-rode his veto a record fifteen times. Congress tried to restrict Johnson’s ability to determine his cabinet secretaries. They passed (over his veto) a law requiring Senate approval to remove Cabinet members, the Tenure of Office Act.  Johnson refused to obey the law, and fired Secretary of War Edwin Stanton anyway.  His replacement was General Grant, though Grant quickly resigned from the post.

Firing Stanton was the “last straw,” and the House impeached Johnson.  The charges included violating the Tenure of Office Act, but also conduct “unbecoming” of a President. Republicans had an overwhelming majority in the Senate, holding 45 seats out of 54. Nine Republicans refused to vote against Johnson, and allied themselves with the nine Democrats.

Conviction and removal required two-thirds of the Senate, or 36 votes. The President’s fate came down to one Republican, Edmund Ross of Kansas, who ultimately decided to vote in his favor. That left Johnson as President by one-vote.

The Supreme Court later ruled the Tenure of Office Act unconstitutional, and Johnson’s impeachment came to be viewed as a “political” action, rather than fitting the Constitutional mandate of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”  Impeachment was put aside for over a century.

High Crimes

It was President Richard Nixon’s acts that brought the impeachment power back into use. When all was revealed, it was found that he ordered his staff to commit crimes to further his political campaigns, then used the power of the Presidency to cover them up.

It was the “cover-up;” when the President used his powers and agencies including the FBI, IRS and CIA, to hide crimes and intimidate opponents, that led Congress to begin impeachment investigations.  During hearings, it was revealed that the President not only knew about the crimes and cover-up, but also was the center of the conspiracy.  Nixon directed the cover-up, suggested sources for payoffs, and was fully involved.

When audiotapes of Nixon participating in the conspiracy were released, the House Judiciary Committee voted out impeachment articles.  Before the articles went to the full House for vote, the Republican leadership of both the House and Senate went to speak to Nixon.  They presented him with a stark choice:  be the first President to resign from office, or the first President to be impeached, convicted and removed from office.   He chose to resign.

Moral Outrage

It was only twenty-four years later that the House of Representatives brought the impeachment power back out again, this time to punish the immorality of President William Clinton.  Clinton took sexual advantage of a twenty-one year old White House intern, having relations with her in the Oval Office and halls of the West Wing.  

When that information came out (a result of a different investigation into possible illegal land speculation) Clinton originally lied about it, both to the American people and in a sworn video deposition to a Grand Jury.  His argument that “oral sex” wasn’t sex (“I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky”) wasn’t reasonable or convincing.

Clinton was impeached for lying to the Grand Jury in the video deposition. He also obstructed justice by encouraging Lewinsky and others to lie about the affair as well.

The ultimate argument in the Senate wasn’t about the fact of Clinton’s actions. The question was whether his actions constituted “high crimes and misdemeanors” as defined in the Constitution.  He had an affair, and he lied about it.  He committed perjury in a Grand Jury investigation of his sex life.  The issue for the Senate was defining a “high” crime, one that required the President be removed from office.

It was a clear vote:  45 for removal to 55 against on the first article, and 50 – 50 on the second article, with 67 required to convict.  The Senate determined that Clinton had NOT committed a removable offense.  It did not exonerate him, but acknowledged that the charges did not rise to the level required by the Constitution.

Today

The House of Representatives is developing evidence of President Trump using the power of his office to extort campaign aid from a foreign country.  He held military aid back to try to force Ukraine to investigate his political opponent, Joe Biden.

It’s true that the Democratic House is at political odds with the President, much like the Congress of 1868 was at odds with Andrew Johnson.  And, while President Trump has committed the same kinds of moral “outrages” that Bill Clinton did, those actions aren’t even mentioned in the current impeachment talk.

This is the question that the House and ultimately the Senate will need to answer.   Did the President’s actions constitute “high crimes and misdemeanors” important enough to remove him from office, like Nixon, or is this just a political vendetta, like Johnson.  While there will be political messaging from all sides, the final analysis will be left to the one hundred individual Senators.

Roger Stone

It all goes back to Watergate: those days that echo in the memory of Roger Stone, Donald Trump’s friend. Somewhere, deep down inside, Roger Stone wants to prove that Nixon was right and everyone else was wrong.  Nixon is Stone’s hero; the tattoo of Nixon’s face on his back proves the point.

Congress began its investigation into the Watergate crisis and the White House in February of 1973. That was seven months after the actual break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in the Watergate office complex.  The President himself wasn’t the “target” of the investigation.  In the beginning, no one knew how far the scandal went into the White House.  

The Committee held closed investigative depositions at the beginning.  It was only after three and a half months that they began public hearings.  Those went on for another almost four more months.

In the middle of those public hearings, the President’s two closest aides, Bob Halderman and John Ehrlichman resigned. So did the Attorney General.  Nixon appointed a new Attorney General, Eliot Richardson, who immediately appointed a special prosecutor to investigate Watergate. 

Alexander Butterfield

The Senate hearings were on TV throughout the summer of 1973.  It became a daily ritual for me (I was sixteen) that summer, watching intently as the networks rotated gavel-to-gavel coverage. July 16^th, 1973 was just another day, another White House guy that no one knew about testifying.  But what Alexander Butterfield said changed the entire investigation.  He revealed in public testimony that the White House had a taping system.   The President recorded all conversations in the Oval Office, the Cabinet Room, and his private office.  

Howard Baker was a Republican Senator from Tennessee.  Baker naturally supported the President, but he kept an open mind in the hearings.  His question, “what did the President know, and when did he know it,” became the purpose for the entire investigation.  And, after Butterfield, the way to find out the answer to that question was obvious:  let’s hear the tapes. 

Special Counsel Archibald Cox subpoenaed the White House for the tapes, but they refused to release them.  He persisted in Court, and was fired by Nixon in the infamous “Saturday Night Massacre”.  Outrage over the firing (it included Richardson and the Deputy Attorney General as well) led to the appointment of another Special Prosecutor, who continued the relentless efforts to get the tapes.

The legal battles went on all winter.  The Senate Committee concluded their investigation, and the House Judiciary Committee took up impeachment proceedings against the President’s obstruction based on the “Saturday Night Massacre”.  The White House claimed “executive privilege” over the tapes, arguing that no President could do his job if every conversation he had could become public. The Special Prosecutor argued that “privilege” couldn’t shield the President’s possible criminal actions.

Nixon’s Voice

In April of 1974 that the White House tried to defuse the case by releasing “transcripts” of the tapes, edited, supposedly, to protect “national security”.  The transcripts left open the question about the role of the President in the scandal, but they did add a new term to the American political lexicon, “expletive deleted”.  If nothing else, we found out the Richard Nixon was a “potty mouth” in almost all of his private conversations.

The “redacted” transcripts weren’t enough, particularly one important conversation that had an eighteen minute “gap”.  The Special Prosecutor continued to pursue the actual tapes in Court.  It wasn’t until July of 1974 in the United States v Nixon that the Supreme Court ruled (8-0) that the tapes had to be released to the Special Prosecutor.  When the full versions of the tapes were heard, the Judiciary Committee found that the President knew and helped orchestrate the Watergate cover-up from the very beginning.  Nixon finally resigned in the face of sure impeachment and removal from office.

Edited Transcripts

In historic “echoes” of Watergate, Donald Trump released a “redacted” transcript of his conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky.  Even with redactions, the summary shows the President pressured Zelensky to investigate both Joe Biden, and the alt-right conspiracy theory called “CrowdStrike.”  While the White House summary does not clearly show a deal, US aid money for Ukrainian investigations: the testimony of many of those involved demonstrates that there was a “quid pro quo.”

This week, in “closed” testimony, US Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, who listened in to the President’s original phone conversation, noted that the “redactions” were hiding damning statements by the President.   In addition to all of the other evidence the Intelligence Committee has heard, it’s clear that the full transcript of this conversation, and potentially transcripts of the President’s discussions with President Xi of China, would reveal more.

Burn the Tapes

Roger Stone believes that Nixon should have had a bonfire on the White House lawn, and burned all of the tapes.  His view is, while there would have been outrage, the fire would have destroyed the “smoking gun” that led to Nixon’s removal.  He might be right; Nixon could have claimed he was defending “executive privilege”.  With the tapes gone, Stone thinks, there would be little the Courts could do.

The full transcripts of Trump’s phone calls are on a high security server in the White House.  White House legal counsel and National Security staff saved them there, instead of a less secure site, to fully protect their content from going public.  Perhaps they’ll consider burning that server in the Rose Garden. They can invite the “Freedom Caucus” over to roast marshmallows.

The Judiciary Committee in 1974 waited for the tapes to be released.  The full import of Nixon’s own words were what led to his impeachment.  It was those actual words that convinced the Senate, and the American people, that he should be removed.  Today’s House of Representatives doesn’t feel like there’s much time left to resolve impeachment.  But it’s still the words of this President that will prove to be his own undoing, edited or not.

Be Careful What You Ask For

House Democrats gave Republicans and the President what they asked for yesterday. Trump supporters have decried the process of impeachment, demanding that the Democrats stop their “illegitimate” approach to investigating Mr. Trump’s actions.  Republicans demanded “a vote” to put the impeachment process “on the record.”

Thursday they will get what they want.  Speaker Pelosi is putting the impeachment inquiry resolution up for a vote.  The Speaker doesn’t leave anything to chance, if the vote is going to the floor, then the vote will pass.  Past Democratic arguments over the vulnerability of some of their House members are now over; the evidence is convincing enough that most of them are “inoculated” from sacrificing their seats.  

And then, Republicans will have their “process problem” solved.

Of course, they won’t.  Senator Lindsey Graham, sponsoring a Senate bill decrying the House process, has already used that famous legal trope “…you can’t ‘un-ring’ the bell.”  He means that, in his view, once the House began without a resolution, they can’t add one on now.  But Graham would find any fault to try to save the President from impeachment.

Hammer Time

Speaking of legal tropes, we have recently heard a lot about this one:

“If you have the law, hammer the law.

If you have the facts, hammer the facts.

 If you have neither the law or the facts, hammer the table.”

As witness after witness speaks to the House Intelligence Committee, the information coming out has made it clear that the Republicans have neither the law, nor the facts.  The President of the United States, in a months-long concerted effort highlighted by a direct phone call to the President of Ukraine, withheld vital defense funds from that country to extort a public investigation of his Democratic political opponent.  

Those are the facts.  The law is just as clear, the President of the United States used needed defense funds to force Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son.  Biden is a likely opponent in 2020, and more importantly, is the one that currently has the greatest chance of beating Trump in the election. Asking a foreign nation to intervene in US elections is a violation of campaign law, and Trump’s actions also violate Congressionally mandated spending.  

Much like bribing a “porn star” to keep his affair from the public, Mr. Trump’s team is likely to say, it’s only “election laws” not really important ones.  They got away with this argument once, though Michael Cohen is paying the price in jail today.  But this “payment” is much more serious, it’s not Mr. Trump’s money laundered through a dummy corporation, it’s US government money, our money, that’s being used to advance his political campaign.

So Republicans will keep hammering the table.

Convince the People

Speaker Pelosi is outlining the next steps towards impeachment:  open hearings of the witnesses.  Democrats will lay their case before the public, a public that already supports the impeachment inquiry 51% to 42% (RCP.)  The Democrats’ goal:  to convince the majority of the American people that the President has abused the powers of his office, and deserves to be removed from it.

But it’s not just the American people that Pelosi wants to influence.  When the President is impeached, the Senate of the United States will sit in judgment of his actions.  It requires 67 Senators approval to remove the President from office. There are 47 Democrats and Independents; to remove him twenty Republican Senators would have to turn against their President.

In this age of extreme partisanship, it seems impossible to imagine that twenty Republicans would have the courage to stand against the President’s twitter rampages, and more importantly, the 42% of Americans who still think that he is doing a good job (RCP).  The “age” of Profiles in Courage seems long gone.

But Pelosi isn’t depending on courage.  Her goal is to depend on the Republican’s sense of self-preservation.  If the polling numbers continue to shift against the President, there will be a point where Mitch McConnell sees Trump as an anchor dragging down the GOP Senate majority.  At that point, McConnell could well “cut the line,” knowing that Vice President Mike Pence is even more amenable to Senate Republican interests.

What is the real percentage of Mr. Trump’s hardcore base?  Should the job approval ratings drop into the low thirties, or the percent for impeachment get near sixty, Majority Leader McConnell will have a real choice to make:  save the President (perhaps only to lose in 2020) or save the Republican Senate majority. 

As Nixon Went

It’s already started.  When the “whistleblower” report first came out, there were questions about whether the Senate would even “hold” an impeachment trial.  But as the Democratic investigation has progressed, Mr. McConnell has laid out a full judicial process of Senate impeachment trials, and made it clear that Senators can expect perhaps a month of six day-a-week hearings.  As the information got more serious, so did he.

Richard Nixon, through most of his administration, had a job approval rating of 55% or more.  It was only in the last year that his ratings dropped, averaging 34% and ending in the last two months at 24% (Gallup.)  The present era is different – for those who remember the controversies of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s, the divisions today seem even worse.  The “sides,” “Trumpers” and “Resistors,” seem even more set in stone.

So while Trump never saw the “high” approval rating Nixon reached, he probably won’t see the low either.  But there is a point where, shorn of all but his most loyal supporters, the Senate may be unable to sustain him.  If that happens, like Nixon, Trump will have to chose between removal or resignation.

And that’s what Speaker Pelosi is trying to do.  Her strategy isn’t just a House impeachment; it’s a plan to remove the President from office.  But she can only do that if the American people are convinced she is right.

Eyes on the Prize

Andrea Mitchell of NBC News interviewed Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez.   Perez gave this advice to Democrats in the primary process:  “I hope you fall in love with multiple people, and then fall in line when we get the nominee” (NBC.)

There was lots of criticism about his statement.  Members of the Democratic Party are notoriously strong headed; the concept of “falling in line” is not really what Democrats do.  We’re more like “herding cats:” we will never be “in line” but hopefully will all meander in the same direction. 

But what Perez meant was clear.  There are lots of candidates running for the nomination for President of the United States.  Perez wants Democrats to get involved, get excited, and get to the polls for the primaries.  And when that process is over, and the convention chooses one of them to run against Donald Trump (or whoever is standing in his place) then we need put our efforts behind that candidate.  Our eyes need to be on the prize, removing Trumpism, and winning the Presidency.

My Pledge

So as a Democrat, less than 100 days from the beginning at the Iowa caucuses, I’m working on “falling in love” with a candidate.  But regardless of the choice I make today, I make a pledge to Mr. Perez:  I will “fall in line” after the convention, and put my energies behind whoever we decide will be the Democratic nominee, even if it’s Bernie Sanders.

But Bernie Sanders isn’t the one I’m falling in love with.  So lets examine the candidates in light of that.

Incremental Change

If the United States was “table rasa,” a blank slate, then I would be all-in for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The goals of Social Democrats, including universal public health care, are ideas that I agree with.  But I also have been a participant and student of politics for my entire life, and I don’t see the United States making the kind of massive changes that those candidates demand. 

We are a nation of incremental change.  Even in the Great Depression, really the last chance for the overarching changes that the Social Democrats want, the US made what really are modest changes.  The New Deal was practical and worked within the framework of a capitalist democracy.  Like it or not, that’s what the nation would accept then, even in their moment of extreme economic crisis.

Our nation is in a crisis today.  The income inequality that exists, with the top 10% holding 70% of the wealth, and the top 1% having 29% of the total wealth; is unsustainable in a democracy.  This is particularly true in our democracy, where the Courts have ruled that free speech means unlimited spending in political campaigns.  

So the United States is primed for a change, but not for the “revolution” that Sanders and Warren want.

The Environment

The one area where incremental change may not be possible is the looming environmental crisis.  We need to change, and change right now, to avoid the worst of the climatic changes we have created.  Whoever the Democratic candidate is, they must have a commitment to make dramatic changes to the current “back to the fifties” vision.  

All of the Democrats have a plan, and all of the candidates will do a better job.  But it is clear that the answers of the past decades haven’t provided a solution for the future.  We need a new plan, and a leader to make it work.

Health Insurance

The United States is ready for everyone to have health care.  But a substantial number of Americans want to keep the private insurance they now have.  This is a “deal breaker” for many, so much so that whoever the Democratic candidate for President is, there must be some provision in their health care plan to allow for private insurance.  This puts Sanders and Warren out, and Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Booker, Biden and some others in.

This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t include a public option insurance plan, and it doesn’t mean the government shouldn’t be able to control drug costs.  That should be a part of every Democratic health care plan. 

Corporate Loyalty

It is clear that many US corporations are loyal only to their shareholders.  There seems to be no greater loyalty to their workers, or their nation.  Whether it’s GM closing its truck manufacturing in the US and moving to Mexico, or Apple tailoring apps to the will of the Chinese government, the US government will need to examine the incentives they provide to these companies.  While Warren and Sanders have made it clear where they stand, the more moderate candidates have said less about controlling them.

And finally, the giants of social media have determined that they are unwilling to control the platforms they created.  These brilliant intellects believe they can simply remain a conduit without responsibility for what’s delivered.  The fact that this increases their own profits I’m sure has something to do with their refusal.   Most of the Democratic candidates are willing to take those giants on.

The Choice

While I respect and admire Joe Biden, I agree with those who feel his time has past.  Biden is not Barack Obama, and the nation of 2020 is not the same as the one that in 2008 took the remarkable step of electing him. 

The argument for Biden is the one he made from the first:  that he is the one sure thing against Donald Trump.  But in watching him campaign, I’m not sure he’s up to the task.  And more significantly, I’m not convinced that the famous “binary choice” is Trump or Biden.  In listening to our nation, I’m closer to believing that it’s “Anybody” or Trump.  And if it’s “Anybody”, then Biden doesn’t HAVE to be the one.  Biden represents the successes and ideals of the Obama Administration, but he also represents the failures and compromises made by them.  We are moving onto a different era, with different and more pressing problems.  

And while I like Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker, and think either would make a great President, I don’t see either catching fire with the electorate.  

Voting My Heart

So, after all of this, who has “won my heart?” 

Pete Buttigieg is thirty-seven, articulate, a veteran, and a city mayor in the Midwest.  Every time I listen to him, I become more convinced that he would be the one to pick up the mantle of change, of bringing the United States into a future of diversity, climate change, and diverging economics.  I see him as the one to stand on the shoulders of the Obama legacy, learn from his mistakes, and move our nation forward.

I well know his weaknesses.  He has less Federal government experience than the other leading candidates.  And the fact that he is gay will be an excuse for some to vote against him.  He needs to increase his appeal to the broader base of the Democratic Party.  If he cannot find a way to do that, he won’t survive in the primary.  If he can find a way to reach the broader base, then he can win the general election in November.

And, to speak to the “elephant in the room;” if someone votes against him because he’s gay, then they would have found some other reason to vote against any other Democrat.  It’s just where we are today.

So, if Mayor Pete remains in the running come the Ohio primary, he will get my vote.  

But if he fails to win the nomination, I will gladly “fall in line” for the Democratic nominee.  It’s not just that I am a “yellow dog” Democrat (I’d vote for a yellow dog if it had a D by its name.)

I have my “eyes on the prize.”

He died like a dog.  He died like a coward.  He was whimpering, screaming, and crying.  Frankly I think it is something that should be brought out so his followers and all of those young kids that want to leave various countries, including the United States, they should see how he died.  He did not die a hero, he died a coward; crying, whimpering, and screaming, and bringing three kids with him to death.  He knew the tunnel had no end.

–Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, in answer to questions at his announcement of the death of ISIS Leader al-Baghdadi

The End of Bagdhadi

US Special Forces killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Bagdhadi Saturday night.  It was a complex operation, with eight Chinook helicopters, additional air coverage, and fifty or more US Special Operators from the Army and Navy.  Special Operations canines were used as well, with one injured representing the only US casualty.   Much as the killing of Osama bin-Laden, US Forces breached a well-defended secure location, searched through the buildings, and found their man.  

According to the President, who stated that he watched the entire operation “like a movie” from the White House Situation room, US Forces and canines chased al-Bagdhadi into a tunnel under the house.  Bagdhadi took three of his children with him, and wore a suicide bomb vest.  When he was finally cornered, with the a canine chasing him, he detonated, killing himself and the children, and wounding the canine.

Al-Bagdhadi is dead.  That’s a good thing for the world.  He led a brutal regime, executing captives in video broadcasts of decapitations, drownings and immolations, and murdering thousands of Yazidi and other ethnic groups.  The Middle East, and the world, is a safer place without him.  This is at least the fourth reporting of his death; the President assures us that this time it’s real.

Mission Accomplished

Congratulations to the US Special Forces, US Intelligence, and the State Department for coordinating this complex operation through a war zone with Turkish, Syrian, Russian and Kurdish forces all on high alert.  It’s possible that even an Al-Qaeda linked group, HTS, who controls the town where the operation took place, fed information to the US Forces.  

And congratulations to the President of the United States, who made the call and “green-lighted” the operation.  Had it failed, Mr. Trump would have borne the brunt of the failure, so he should get credit for having the strength to do his part.

Knowledge of Death

I have never faced death in battle. While I still have my draft card, in 1974 the US was well on the way to leaving Vietnam.  My turn never came.  For me, I can’t say how I, or others, should act in the face of the ultimate test.  I have been under fire, shot at in the woods by a young target shooter who liked moving targets.  When that happened, I didn’t freeze, I ran as fast as I could and dove into a sticker bush.  But I have not faced certain death.  And I certainly have not faced death with my children at my side.

We know that Donald Trump has not either.  When he faced his Vietnam choice, he managed to avoid the draft under medical exemption.  He’s not the only one of that era to do it, and whether it was a moral judgment on Vietnam, a personal decision to not risk war, or a real medical defect, it’s hard to know, and not for me to judge.

But I don’t think we should find “glory” or “satisfaction” in how a man dies, regardless of what they’ve done.  I’m all for our Special Forces doing what they do best, and removing from this world a threat to us all.  I just don’t think we need to take pleasure in the manner and demeanor of his death.

Higher Standard

Did he hide behind his children as a shield?  Was he screaming and whimpering?  Did he set off a bomb to kill himself and his kids, in a way that hoped to kill the Americans?  Who cares?

It demeans the Presidency, the nation, and the forces that risked their lives in battle, to glory in the manner of his death.  And Trump’s belief that it would somehow change those impressionable minds that would consider joining ISIS:  if they are indoctrinated enough to consider joining, then they are blinded enough by propaganda to ignore what Trump says.

But for the rest, we see a President taking pride in another man’s failures at death.  I doubt it makes al-Baghdadi’s victim’s families feel better:  his being gone is enough.  

And finally, the only US casualty was a canine, injured by the bomb blast.  The dogs too, acted with courage and fidelity.  Why sully their name with “dying like a dog?”  They are more than willing to lay down their lives for their handlers; it would be an honor to die with the loyalty of those “dogs.”

We should hold ourselves to higher standards. 

That’s what you get for sleeping in.  President Trump’s on right now, declaring his “bin-Laden moment” with the reported death of al-Baghdadi.  If it’s true, I’m glad he’s dead.  I’m sorry the President can’t see the gravity of the moment, and needs to talk about what he wrote in a book in 1999.   And I am confused – did we leave Syria, are we in Syria, or did we just say it was OK for the Turks to invade Syria?

The Warning 

In the months leading up to the release of the Mueller Report, we were warned.  We were told that the Trump Administration would do everything to distract from what Robert Mueller and his team found.  They told us to expect anything:  from personal attacks on the unassailable honor and decency of Mueller himself, to the honesty of the team his assembled.

We heard about “the seventeen angry Democrats” and the “lying” witnesses.  And we were ready for all of that.  But what we weren’t ready for was Attorney General William Barr.  The man was presented to us as an “institutionalist”.  He would defend the fundamental impartiality of the Justice Department, and was a “friend” of Robert Mueller.  The two were compared to Special Prosecutor Leon Jaworski and Attorney General William Saxbe. They were friends who came to the Senate Judiciary Committee together to guarantee the impartiality of the Watergate investigation.  

The Zealot

What we didn’t know then was that Bill Barr, at the end of a distinguished career, was a zealot.  He believed so strongly in an aberrant Constitutional theory of the Presidency, that he was willing to throw his “friend” Mueller and his work “under the bus”.  He lied about its conclusions, and hid the actual findings for almost a month. 

What we didn’t know was that Bill Barr would put the full resources of the Justice Department at the disposal of the White House.  Attorneys paid for by US taxpayers are going into court defending the President’s “right” to hide his taxes and ignore subpoenas.  They not only are defending the absolute authority of the President, but they are claiming his absolute immunity from trial, indictment, or even investigation.

And what we really didn’t expect, is the Attorney General Barr would personally lead an investigation based on Russian propaganda and alt-right conspiracy theories.  We thought this former AG, an “establishment Republican” couldn’t be sucked into that black hole.  But he has travelled the globe trying to find any evidence he can to “prove” it.   By lending credence to it, he gets the opportunity to threaten the President’s old enemies:  Comey and McCabe, Strzok and Page, Brennan and Clapper.   Not only does that make Mr. Trump “happy,” but it also distracts from the deep trouble he’s in.

Distract and Divert

But here we are. As the impeachment investigation into the President taking US military aid to extort Ukrainian help in the 2020 election goes on, we can now expect even more extreme actions.  This weekend, it is the “free Flynn” outcry, claiming that convicted foreign agent and liar Michael Flynn was “set up” by the FBI.  It only adds to their fury that one of the agents questioning Flynn was Peter Strzok, and that the questioning was under the direction of Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

Reports from the hearings in the House note that Republicans are actively participating.  They are asking questions and taking notes. More specifically they are digging into witnesses, trying to find out whether they “support” the President, and do they know who the “whistleblowers” are.  

The next great Republican “revelation” will be the names of the whistleblowers, and why they are “tainted” by Democrats.  They will be truly excoriated, their lives torn apart, and their careers in the government over.  They will be sacrificed, even though the truth of the President’s own words and actions are all the evidence that’s needed to impeach.

Come Tomorow

Much of this is merely diversion and distraction.  But his announcement of the Delta Force operation ending in the death of ISIS leader al-Baghdadi is real.  It’s good that he’s dead, but the President has already given out more specific information and detail than US Forces would have liked.  This gives Mr. Trump his “bin-Laden moment,” and he’s certainly allowed to enjoy it.   

But by the end of the day, the President will be back to attacking Democrats.  By tomorrow morning, the center of his universe will pivot back to a House “SCIF” where depositions are being taken.  This won’t go away.   And expect the President to “kick, scream and whimper” all the way to impeachment.

Unified Theory – in particle physics, an attempt to describe all fundamental forces and the relationships between elementary particles in terms of a single theoretical framework.

Too Much Happening

Day to day it’s hard to keep track of what’s going on.  Just Wednesday, President Trump declared “victory” in Syria saying that the United States was responsible for “the peace” (don’t tell Erdogan and Putin.)  Meanwhile, The House Intelligence Committee continued to gather evidence that Trump himself extorted  2020 campaign help from Ukraine, and the “Freedom Caucus” marched into the hearing room to disrupt the proceedings.  

While the Democrats in the House of Representatives are investigating a single facet of President Trump’s behavior as impeachable, there seems to be so much more going on.  And as much as the President wished it were so, the “old news” of the Mueller Report has never been resolved.  All of this seems like so much random stuff; no wonder the American people feel overwhelmed, and unwilling to absorb it all.   

The Center

Syria, Ukraine, hacking into America’s elections, Trump’s Impeachment:  all of these events ultimately orbit around a single force.  The center of our political and global universe seems to be one man.  And it’s not Donald Trump, though he plays a significant role in a lot of it.  The center of our current political universe, the unifying theory of everything, is the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. 

Mueller Report

We know Russia hacked our elections.  The Mueller Report and the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee Report demonstrate in intricate detail how the Internet Research Agency (IRA) in St. Petersburg and Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) broke into the Democratic National Committee servers, stole emails, and fed them to Wikileaks.  We also know that the IRA used social media, most notably Facebook and Twitter, to manipulate the American electorate.  

Social Media

And we know that Cambridge Analytica, working on behalf of the Trump Administration and with their own connections to Russia, was manipulating social media as well.  And for those who haughtily claim that “…Facebook didn’t change my vote,” there is this question.  

The disinformation on Facebook and Twitter was endemic, and divisive.   Even if you never looked at it, how do you know that the people that do influence your vote, or the folks you heard on other media, weren’t influenced?  The drumbeat against Hillary Clinton, from emails, to her health, to “screwing” Bernie Sanders, all had a grain of truth.  But it was all amplified to “11” by the IRA, the Trump campaign and Cambridge Analytica.  All three played off each other, copying and reposting the same explosive memes and statements.  It was an automated and effective operation, giving each a plausible deniability.

Firtash

And we also know that a close Putin ally, Russian oligarch, Dimitry Firtash, has his hands in several facets of the Trump world.  He employed Paul Manafort in Ukraine, and ultimately Manafort owed him millions.  Manafort worked for the Trump campaign “for free,” but he tried to parlay his efforts into payments for Firtash.  After the Federal charges were made against Manafort, he employed high priced lawyers, even though all of his funds were confiscated.  It seems likely that Firtash paid those bills.

And Firtash’s money is behind the “CrowdStrike” conspiracy, claiming that it wasn’t Russians but Ukrainians who hacked the DNC servers.  And it’s also his money that financed Rudy Guiliani’s search for “proof” of “CrowdStrike” and the Biden’s “corruption” in Ukraine.  He used two Russian/Ukrainian linked Americans, Parnas and Fruman to aid in the effort. They are now under indictment in the United States.  Their real mission, along with Giuliani, was to convince Ukrainian officials to back the false narratives.  It is likely Firtash’s money would pay for it.

The Evidence

Here’s the evidence then:

• US actions in Syria = Furthering Russian aims
• election hacking = Russia
• Social Media Manipulation = Russia
• Cambridge Analytica ≈ Russia
• CrowdStrike Conspiracy = Russia
• Biden Ukrainian “Corruption” = Russia
• Manafort, Giuliani, Parnas, Fruman = Russia.

Bill Barr

And now the Attorney General of the United States has opened a criminal investigation into the “whistleblowers” that brought Russia’s actions to light.  He is looking into the “origins” of the original investigations into Russia and the Trump campaign.  He is following two “theories.”  

The first is that the CIA set up the FBI  to investigate the Trump Campaign.  They did so by “creating” a false Russian connection, according to the theory.  This supposedly was the first contact, when Joseph Mifsud told Trump operative George Papadopoulos about the hacked DNC emails.  Even though Mueller identified Mifsud as a known Russian agent, Barr believes that he actually worked for the CIA, and was used to “lure” the Trump Campaign into actions that gave the FBI probable cause to start surveillance.

Of course, this “theory” let’s the Trump Campaign off the hook for the hundreds of contacts they had with Russian intelligence outside of Papadopoulos, outlined in the Mueller Report.  And it allows Barr to go after Trump’s favorite enemies:  Comey, McCabe, Strzok, and Ohr; and most importantly, former CIA Director John Brennan.

But it depends on the second “theory,” that the Russians in fact didn’t hack the emails.   “CrowdStrike:”  that the DNC hacks were an elaborate “false flag” operation created by the Obama Administration and the CIA, originating in the Ukraine, to hack and leak their own Democratic Party emails and blame Russia for it.  It makes no sense on its face.

And who benefits most from “CrowdStrike:”  Russia again.

Strike the King

When this is all over (if it ever is all over) the message put forth to our intelligence community is simple:   no matter what the President does, you can’t investigate it.  In fact, no matter what a Presidential campaign does, you can’t investigate it either.  If the intelligence community does, the full weight of the Justice Department will come down.  In fact, the Barr Justice Department has developed a new legal “opinion:”  the President now cannot be indicted, or INVESTIGATED while in office.  

Democracy cannot survive if “the sovereign leader” is beyond the law, beyond investigation, and beyond the reach of the people.  Our political process may be so tainted with Russian influence and money, that the Constitutional process of impeachment and removal may be infeasible.  If our elections are so tainted, and the law cannot reach the President, then what is left of our Constitutional Republic? 

And who benefits most from a failed United States?

I wrote this yesterday, before I got the word that my sister and her husband had to put their fifteen year-old Pit, Bailey, to sleep.  She was a grand old dame.  Bailey loved to be loved, whether it was snuggling under the covers in bed, or getting a “rub” under the kitchen table.  She wanted to play with us, and with her younger “sister” Indigo.  And she taught us that “Pit Bulls” were dogs first, and shouldn’t  automatically mean fear.  She loved and was loved, and will be deeply missed.

Under the Stars

Two in the morning:   Buddy wants to go out.  I hear the persistent gentle pawing on the blanket at the bottom of the bed.  Atticus is sleeping in between us; he jumps up.  No one wants to miss the middle of the night walk through the campground.  No one, of course, except Jenn:  she rolls over.  I would too, if they would let me sleep.  But that isn’t going to happen.

We walk under the stars, down towards Lake Alma here in southeastern Ohio.  We’re in the hills, surrounded by miles of forest.  As we reach the lakeside, the moon is just rising on the horizon.  It’s welcomed by yips and howls, not from Buddy and Atticus, but coyotes on the other side of the small lake.

Buddy must know coyotes from his previous life, and he does not like them.  He stops, and turns around and pulls back towards the camper.  Atticus isn’t sure what it’s about, but he takes his cue from Buddy. Whatever business we had left to do, it would have to wait until daylight.

Rescue Dogs

Both our dogs, Buddy and Atticus, are rescues.  You can’t love dogs any more than ones saved from cruel fate.  Buddy was rescued as a pup. We think he’s a border-collie mix, discovered hiding at some construction site.  He was adopted out, but was returned to the shelter.  He is a herder, and in his youth, if you didn’t go the right way, he would nip you in the butt to re-direct you.  The first time out, they couldn’t get him under control.

So when Jenn brought him home (I didn’t have much to do with that) we had some training to do, and adapting ourselves.  But Buddy learned from us, and even more from our older Yellow Lab, Dash.  When Buddy was two and a half, he was diagnosed with lymphoma.  Untreated he had only a few months, and standard treatment might get him a year or so. 

Miracle Dog

You never think you’re “that dog owner” that would spend thousands on your dog, until you’re face to face with it.  Buddy got surgery, then chemotherapy.  His oncologist (you know the cost goes up when you have veterinary oncologist) Dr. Malone modified his treatment, trying something new for his kind of lymphoma.  It was a year of chemo, and while Buddy handled it OK, we were more than pleased when the blood tests came back normal, and he could finally stop taking the pill so dangerous we had to handle it with surgical gloves.

That was over three years ago, and Buddy is doing great.  His six months blood work is steady and normal.  Dr. Malone has made presentations on Buddy’s success, complete with video of him running around in the back yard.  When Dash passed away (cancer, nothing we could do) we thought we were going to be a one-dog family.  Buddy travelled with us to winter in Florida.  He didn’t like the beach, but he was always ready for a long walk down the “jungle trail.”  And he was great in “dog bars,” hanging out under the table waiting for a French fry.

At the Shelter

When we got back from Florida, Jenn starting looking at rescues, “just to see.”  That’s when we found out about Atticus, a Yellow Lab in the Franklin County (Columbus) shelter.  Atticus was picked up in a park in the south part of the county, and after three days, was put on both the rescue list and the euthanasia list.  That meant he couldn’t be adopted out because of his illnesses, he had to go to a rescue organization.  He had terrible ear infections, and if he wasn’t gone within the week, he was going to be put down.

It didn’t help he looked a lot like a young Dash.

So Jenn wrangled a “branch membership” in the Northeast Ohio Lab Rescue, and we were on the way to the Franklin County Shelter.  We didn’t have the “style” of rescuers, and I’m pretty sure the Franklin County people knew what was up.  But they let us have him, and we were back to a two-dog family again.

The New Guy

It should be no surprise that Atticus was an expensive dog at first.  We had to get his ears cleared up.   After a couple weeks of treatments, he discovered he could actually hear, and gave us a quizzical look whenever we spoke. 

he woke up at every noise, we think because he was on his own so long, worrying about everything in the woods that might get him. He was scared, worried, and on alert.

 It took a while for him to understand what we were saying, but meanwhile, he figured out we were OK.  We once read that “…dogs don’t like to be hugged, so don’t do it.” They haven’t met Atticus, from his standoffish demeanor, he became a dog that demanded to be hugged.  In fact, he became one of the most loving dogs we’ve had.

And we discovered that his ears were all about allergies.  Atticus is allergic to almost everything relating to beef: most dog food, treats, cheese, and dairy.  A meat treat was good for three days of scratching, and constantly having to go out.      

So we have a dog that eats sweet potato and fish dog food.  Oh, and he can have pretty much any other vegetable.  And because there’s no way to keep food divided, Buddy has become a sweet potato and fish guy too.  And they both are in love with carrots.

We have two miracle dogs:  Buddy the cancer survivor, and Atticus who cheated death at the shelter.  They are absolutely spoiled, but more importantly, they are absolutely loved.  And like most rescues, they are extremely grateful, for their home, their backyard, their place in our king bed; and for our love.   

“Leave the Gun; Take the Cannoli” – Peter Clemenza, after a murder, from the movie:  The Godfather

Not Really Leaving Syria

In didn’t take many US forces to keep Turkey from attacking America’s former allies, the Syrian Kurds.  But in a single phone call, President Donald Trump agreed to pull those forces out, leaving the Kurds open to Turkish attack.  While Mr. Trump claimed,  “…he was bringing our soldiers home,” in fact he simply shuffled them back into Iraq, a country that doesn’t want them.

Except, that he didn’t even do that.

Now some US forces are staying in Northern Syria.  And it’s not from some “regret” at abandoning the Syrian Kurds to Erdogan, Assad, and Putin.  While alliance and loyalty seem to have little meaning to President Trump, what does attract his attention is money, and oil.

So now some US forces will remain in the eastern part of Northern Syria.  They won’t be protecting the Kurds, but they will be protecting oil fields, a dark rewrite of Clemenza’s line:  “Leave the Kurds, take the oil.”

It’s About Oil

Why are we concerned?  According to Secretary of Defense Mark Esper (not Esperanto as the President tweeted)  “A purpose of those forces, working with the SDF, is to deny access to those oil fields by ISIS and others who may benefit from revenues that could be earned.” (Foreign Policy.)

Wait – the President has said, over and over and over: “…ISIS is 100% DEFEATED, AND I DID IT!”  So if they are 100% defeated, why do we need to leave troops to protect oil fields?  Are we protecting them from ISIS, or are we protecting them from Syrian forces under Assad’s control?  Or perhaps we are protecting them from Russian forces, “helping” Assad.  

Oil is a major distraction for Mr. Trump.  Throughout his recent political career he complained that the US should never have gone to war in Iraq.  But he was quick to add, that once we did, we should have taken their oil revenues.  And of course, the President is a close friend with the leaders of a major oil-producing nation, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  He has even sent US troops to defend Saudi from Iran, at Saudi expense, of course.  This is still true, despite the fact that the United States is supposedly energy independent and even exporting petroleum (Washington Post.)

The President’s fixation on oil may be the trait that his personal allies used to try to convince him to change his decision on Syria.  Lindsey Graham literally took a map with him to the White House, pointing out exactly where the oil fields are located.  It made Mr. Trump take pause, and re-think at least a portion of his plan.

For the Motherland

But the President’s “friend” Vladimir Putin took almost no time at all to fill the vacuum created by the US troop withdrawal.  Not only is he interested in oil, but even more in making Russia the major player in the Middle East.  This week he and Turkish President Erdogan redrew the map of Syria, creating a northern border zone patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops, and a neighboring zone controlled by the Syrian Assad government.  The careful “ceasefire” negotiated by Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo was erased, just like the US military presence in the region.

And the hapless Syrian Kurds are left to make the best deal they can with the new power players.  

Russia is fighting a campaign to regain the stature of the old Soviet Empire.  Just as the US stood in their way in the Cold War, the US controlled their expansion in the current era.  But the isolationist Trump Administration took a course allowing Russia to rebuild their influence.  Russia is no longer worried about US reaction in Ukraine, nor are they concerned about what the US now does in the Middle East.  And they are undermining other democracies throughout the world, attacking them through the fundamental process that makes democracies work:  elections.

The election of more authoritarian regimes in Hungary, Italy and Brazil, the Brexit decision in the United Kingdom, and Russia’s continuing involvement in Syria:  all are part of a greater plan of increased Russian influence.  Just a couple years ago, hundreds of Russian mercenaries fighting in Syria were killed when they attacked US forces.  Now the US has conceded our influence there.

The World Choses

In the Godfather, Clemenza was a prime lieutenant to the Godfather himself, Don Corleone.  He supposedly died of a heart attack cooking for the “fellas,” but as one of the Corleone assassins said, “…that was no heart attack.”   The United States is abandoning its role in the world, using the phrase “America First” to cover for isolationism.  Is it a coincidence that the Russians supported the election of this administration?  What can the rest of the world do?

Leave the Americans, take the Russians.

Donald Trump models himself as a man who is tough, ruthless, and spontaneous.   How did a man with that self-image let Recip Erdogan “scare” the United States out of Syria?  Donald Trump is the man who brags about how big his “button” is. Yet he let Turkey “have its way” with a US ally, the Kurds. And now thousands of imprisoned ISIS fighters may be released.

Why the Green Light?

There are lots of possibilities.  Perhaps Trump really didn’t think anything through, and wanted to please Erdogan.  Maybe the Turkish leader was embarrassed after his last disastrous visit to Washington, where his bodyguards ended up in a brawl outside the embassy.  Or, perhaps Trump was protecting his own Trump Organization, already heavily invested in Istanbul.  

Or for those who are more conspiratorial, perhaps the President, or his son-in-law, gave intelligence to the Saudis, enabling them to ambush and murder Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.  If Erdogan knew that happened, it would surely be a strong incentive for Trump to “knuckle under” to the Turkish demand.

Or the ultimate conspiracy:  Putin ordered Trump to let Turkey invade.  

In the age of Donald Trump, really anything is possible.  We don’t know how entangled Trump, or his family, are in the Middle East or Russia.  With the President so willing to ignore conflicts of interest, it wouldn’t really be a surprise.

The Middle Eastern Equation

So, since we are speculating, let me add a different twist to the story.  While we know that the Trump Organization is entangled everywhere, lets, for the moment, look beyond the personal financial interests of the President.  Let’s look at the equation of what’s going on throughout the Middle East, and see what the answer might be.

We know that the entire Trump Administration looks upon Iran as the existential threat to the Middle East.  They see Iran as the ultimate supporter of terrorism with their backing of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Yemeni revolution.  Trump also sees Iran as a potential nuclear threat to Israel, and as the force in the Middle East that cancels Israeli power.  

So if to the Trump Administration it’s “all about Iran,” how would their current actions in Syria play into that view?  

The Administration, from the very beginning, wanted to put pressure on Iran.  They withdrew from the Nuclear Deal, even though their own Intelligence services made it clear that Iran was abiding by the provisions.  The first foreign visit by the President was to Iran’s enemy Saudi Arabia.  The US has supported Saudi in their proxy war with Iran in Yemen.  And now, the US is sending thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia, to act as a “trip-wire” should the Saudi’s and Iran tangle.  The US troops will be the first casualties, guaranteeing US involvement.

Clearing the Deck

“Clear the Deck” is an old nautical term.  It means removing all of the clutter stored on the top deck of a wooden sailing ship, to prepare for battle.  “Clearing the Decks” is a step towards war.  The next step is to put sand on the deck, to keep the deck from growing slippery with the blood of the sailors fighting there.

Perhaps the President is “clearing the deck” for war with Iran.  Let’s look at the steps in an equation that may be leading to war. 

Turkish Supply Base

A US war in Iran requires a stable place to gather supplies, munitions, and troops.  It also requires established air bases to launch strikes against Iran, and fly close air support.  Turkey already offers all of these, including Incirlik Airbase where 5000 US servicemen are currently stationed, along with tactical nuclear weapons.  In short, to fight a war in Iran, the US needs Turkey to cooperate.

No One Coming Home

The President has announced it’s time “to bring the troops home.”  But they aren’t coming home, they are moving into position to threaten Iran.  The US troops in Syria have moved to Northern Iraq, oddly enough, the land of the Iraqi Kurds.  They are close to the Iranian border.

Rather than bringing troops home from “endless wars,” the President has sent thousands more to Saudi Arabia.  They aren’t there to fight off Yemeni rebels.

Wag the Dog

Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel has consistently lobbied for a military offensive against Iran.  He has a strong ally in the White House, long-time friend and Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner.  Should Netanyahu survive the political upheaval in Israeli politics today, he may well want a military action to unify his nation behind him.  What better than a war with Iran?

President Trump is facing sure impeachment, and possible removal.  But if he dodges removal from office, and faces election in 2020, what better way to unify HIS nation behind him, then a war in Iran.  He would see it as a justifiable “Wag the Dog.”

Our Friends in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has two things that President Trump loves:  oil and money.  The Saudis have often been willing to pay other nations to do “their dirty work.”  It should be no surprise that Saudi is paying the US for the troops coming now, and it shouldn’t’ be a surprise that Trump is taking the money.  You can hear him say, “It’s not costing us anything;” not adding that it’s putting American lives at risk for the Kingdom.

Staying in Afghanistan

And, speaking of troops coming home, why are we still in Afghanistan?  And why did the US reach a tentative agreement with the Taliban to end our involvement in the country, only to have the President throw it out?  Perhaps the President wants to maintain our forces and bases in Western Afghanistan, across the Iranian border.

No Inside Information

I don’t have any secret insight into the President, nor do I have any “inside information.”  And I hope I’m wrong.  It’s always possible that the Trump Administration is really as chaotic as it seems, and there is no “master plan.”  But this is the only “theory” that includes all of the US actions in the Middle East. It is a possible answer to the Middle East equation.

It’s just one more thing to worry about.

True Confession

Thursday, Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney hosted the first formal press conference in the White House since last March.  The conference was specifically called to announce the location of next summer’s G7 Summit Meeting:  the Trump owned Doral Hotel in Miami.  

The President of the United States profiting from holding an international meeting at a property he owns had all sorts of issues.  It directly violated the emoluments clause of the Constitution, and raised a number of questions about the President’s conduct.  The idea was so toxic, even to Republicans, that somewhere in the middle of Saturday evening Trump tweeted that he was dropping the whole thing.  They can go to Camp David as far he is concerned, his least favorite place.  The announcement Thursday though, was really another famous Trump “distraction;” to change the subject from Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, and impeachment. 

And it might have worked.  But Mr. Mulvaney decided this was the time to answer all of the questions the media had for him. So he went ahead and explained exactly what the President did in his actions toward Ukraine.

The mainstream media was aghast:  Mulvaney openly confessed that Ukrainian military aid funds were held hostage by the White House to force the investigation of Democratic “scandals” there.  Specifically, he said, the funds were held so that the Ukrainian prosecutors would investigate the conspiratorial “CrowdStrike” issue.  “CrowdStrike” is the name for a far-right theory that the US elections were hacked in 2016, not by the Russians, but by Ukrainian supporters of Hillary Clinton.

Quid Pro Quo

Let’s put aside for a moment, the craziness that the President and the White House put any credence in the “CrowdStrike” nonsense.  It was already debunked in the first volume of the Mueller Report. Besides, it makes no sense:  why would Ukraine even “fake” attacking Hillary Clinton’s campaign when it was clear she would be much more supportive of their goals than Donald Trump?  

It is a violation of American law to ask foreign governments for aid in political campaigns.  That’s exactly what the President did:  even the White House released “condensed” transcript of the July 25^th phone conversation with Ukraine’s President Zelensky shows that.  Mr. Trump asked for help about “CrowdStrike” and also about “dirt” on Joe Biden and his son.  It is also a violation of US law to use US funds for personal gain, the “quid pro quo” linking the funds to, “…I need a favor, though,” in the President’s conversation.

But, in true “Trumpian” style, Mulvaney announced that not only did they demand the Ukrainians investigate Democrats and CrowdStrike, but they were blackmailing them; by holding back the Congressional mandated defense funds.  And Mulvaney said the United States does this all the time, and the media should, “…get over it.”  What was he thinking?

Your Lying Eyes

Later in the evening, the White House put out a statement saying that Mulvaney didn’t say — wait for it — what he said.  It was all “fake news” they said, don’t believe your lying eyes and ears.

But Mulvaney did say it.  And he went out of his way to do so, this wasn’t a blurted out, accidental confession.  This was a man proud of what his President did, and quite willing to put it out in front of the world.

The Unitary Executive

Richard Nixon once said, “…but when the President does it, that means that it’s not illegal” (Frost Interview.)  The current Attorney General, William Barr, has made it clear that in “his” Justice Department the President cannot be indicted for criminal activity while in office.  In addition, they now claim that the President cannot even be investigated (Washington Post.)  Their “theory” of the Presidency, the “unitary executive;” places the President above the law.   The only “check” on the power of the President is impeachment and removal.

So it shouldn’t be a surprise that Chief of Staff Mulvaney came out with an “affirmative defense” of the President, confessing to all of the acts that seem criminal.  They believe that when the President does something,  “…it means that it’s not illegal.”  They also believe that impeachment is restricted to a strict criminal definition of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”  Put that together:  the President cannot be impeached, because he cannot commit a crime.

So What

And that was Mulvaney’s plan.  It’s the “so what” defense:  so what if the President demanded a “quid pro quo” from Ukraine, so what if he was asking Ukraine for dirt on the Democrats and Biden.  If the President does it, it’s not illegal.  

And what about the White House issued the “walk back – don’t believe your lying eyes” statement later?  It’s all about covering the base. The base got the message from Mulvaney the first time, this President “does what he wants.”  Mulvaney’s Freedom Caucus buddies in Congress, Jim Jordan, Mark Meadows, Devin Nunes and the rest can run with that as well.  And for the more established Republicans, they will take heart in the second message.

 The Chief of Staff has lost his mind.  We all know what’s going to happen.  It’ll be in a tweet next week.  Mick Mulvaney is going back to South Carolina, to spend more time with his wife and triplets, and if he has one, his dog. 

A Higher Purpose 

Mulvaney served his President.   And he has served his ideology as well.   Mulvaney, in an address to the Federalist Society, said that the balance of power between the Congress and the President is “…out of whack.”  He further stated, “…it’s almost impossible for the executive to be the executive”  (Washington Times.)

Mulvaney, Attorney General Barr, and others are doing their best to “fix” the balance, and protect this renegade President.  It’s all done for a “higher purpose:” 

Let the nation, the world and the Constitution be damned. 

The United States lost a “force” yesterday.  Elijah Cummings, son of sharecroppers, long time representative of his hometown of Baltimore, Maryland passed away.  He was only sixty-eight years old.  He was the chairman of the House Oversight Committee, on the forefront of the battle between the White House and the Congress.  And he, along with John Lewis and Jim Clyburn, represented Congress’s best:  the leaders from the Civil Rights generation.

Compassion

Most recent memories of Cummings are of conflict with the Trump Administration.  But even in that conflict, he showed compassion.  It was Elijah Cummings who, when Trump lawyer Michael Cohen came back after lying to his Oversight Committee, offered praise at his willingness to be finally forthright.  Cummings was both passionate and compassionate.  He recognized that the witness in front of him was going to jail, and was doing his best to atone. 

And Elijah Cummings was more than just a partisan.  When a young Congressman, a “Squad” member, called out Republican Mark Meadows for being racist, it was Cummings who stepped in.  He mediated between the two; explaining that while Meadows had different political views, that, in fact, he was a close friend.  When Republican turned commentator Joe Scarborough married co-host Mika Brezhenski, it was Elijah Cummings that officiated the ceremony.

When the President, Donald Trump, called Baltimore a “…garbage strewn, rat infested Hell hole;” Cummings responded without vitriol.  He invited the President to come and see “his” Baltimore, and called on the President of the United States to be the President of Baltimore, Maryland as well.

The Void

In our current crisis, it’s unavoidable that we feel a sense of abandonment.  We need Elijah Cummings, we need his leadership and his compassion, and we need his strong voice calling on all of us to be moral.  It’s gone.

Others will step up.  If there is one thing Americans have faith in; it’s in our ability to replace those we lose.  The history of America is full of stories of the next person stepping in, rising to the challenge.   General Winfield Scott Hancock stepping up for the loss of John Reynolds at Gettysburg.  Harry Truman replaced Franklin Roosevelt at the end of World War II. Americans know that history shows the void will be filled.

But we will miss Elijah Cummings.

The President’s Letter

Looking back at the last two weeks, it’s clear that the President “green lighted” Turkey’s invasion of the Syrian Kurds in his phone conversation with President Erdogan.  Whether he did that out of a willingness to get out of Syria, or out of weakness when faced with a Turkish threat, we don’t know.  What we do know is that Mr. Trump has now circulated the Sunday “letter” to Erdogan.  From the Administration’s standpoint, the letter seems to be designed to make Mr. Trump look “tough.”  Unfortunately, when read from a Turkish standpoint, the letter seems incredibly disrespectful.

The Great Father

In very simple language, President Trump presented a choice to the Turks.  Either pull back from the invasion discussed the day before, or the United States would invoke economic sanctions that would be ruinous to the Turkish economy.  That seems plain, and tough enough.

While the entire tone of the letter seems like that of a father writing to his pre-adolescent son, it is the last paragraph that was bound to generate the most hostility.

“History will look upon you favorably if you get this done the right and humane way.  It will look upon you forever as the devil if good things don’t happen.  Don’t be a tough guy. Don’t be a fool!”

The President of the United States has warned the proud heir to the Ottoman Empire and Kemal Ataturk that he could be “the devil,” “a tough guy” and “a fool!”  He has treated the Turkish government with complete disrespect. It has the same paternalistic tone that US Presidents used with Native American Tribal Chiefs in the 1800’s.  And he’s done it from a position of weakness, not strength.

No Position to Negotiate

No wonder the Turks crossed the border without fear of US involvement.  All Trump had to deter them was a “stern” letter and future economic sanctions.  Erdogan threw it in the trash. Then in a news conference with the President of Italy, Mr. Trump talked about how our former allies the Kurds were even more dangerous than ISIS.  It’s hard to see how Vice President Pence and Secretary Pompeo had a negotiating position to stand on.

And the “agreement” reached in Ankara was little different than the phone call.  Turkey wanted a twenty mile wide, two hundred forty mile long control zone in what was Kurdish Northern Syria.  They got it.  Erdogan wanted any militarized Kurds removed from the area.  They got that.  And he wanted to have an absolute right to use military force to control the zone.  And he got that too.

So Vice President Pence had his “Munich Agreement” moment.  And the Vice President was smart.

 He gave Donald Trump all the credit.

Attacking Biden

Commentators are making a lot out of many of the Democratic candidates attacking Elizabeth Warren in Tuesday’s Democratic Debate.  They are writing Joe Biden’s obituary, saying that the others are leaving him alone because he is no longer relevant.  Warren is the “new” front-runner, and that’s why she got the most “heat.”

There is some truth to this.  Warren has moved up in the polls, currently tied with Biden in most.  But there is a more important reason that Biden was left pretty much to himself in the fourth Democratic debate.  

Biden is the target of Donald Trump.  And it’s not just from the President’s infamous “tweets:” the President of the United States pressured the leaders of other countries to give him dirt on Biden.  Trump may well be impeached for doing it.  So what Democrat wants to align him or herself with Donald Trump against Joe Biden?  That strategy just “sucks.”  In fact, it was clear that several candidates, particularly Cory Booker, were ready to defend Biden against such attacks. 

Knowing Tulsi

I didn’t know much about Tulsi Gabbard, other than her biography as a veteran and Congressman from Hawaii.  I did hear “rumors” that somehow Gabbard was a “Putin ally,” but I didn’t have any direct evidence of that: until last night.  

Listening to Gabbard create a narrative of “regime change” in Syria sounded much like Russian talking points during the Obama Administration.  She made it sound like President Obama sent troops to back the rebellion against Assad, and re-wrote the rebels as all terrorists. They weren’t, and the facts are that President Obama didn’t send US troops to back them.  Gabbard doesn’t get to re-write history to fit her own narrative, and her attempt to do so raises questions about where she’s coming from.

“Modern” Andrew Yang

I learned something last night.  Somewhere along the way, I missed the “FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.”  That’s what I get for being sixty-three and retired, I guess.  I missed a whole REVOLUTION.  But I do know about industrial automation.  Gee, Hillary Clinton got in trouble for talking about that four years ago in West Virginia.  She said that the coal mining jobs were gone, even if mines were re-opened.  Clinton was criticized for saying the day of the coal miner working the open seam was over, machinery would take his place.

So this new idea by Mr. Yang really isn’t that new.  And if automation displacement was the major answer to industrial unemployment, then why are all of those factories opening in Mexico and China and other places?  GM can automate their plants, but it looks to me like they are more interested in using manual labor, and taking bigger profits.  Not a revolution, just a corporation trying to increase stock values. Mr. Yang shouldn’t miss the point; automation is only a small part of the industrial and employment dislocation happening here in America.

But I can also see Mr. Yang’s appeal to younger voters.  He speaks “the language” of the “internet educated electorate” (like that phrase?)  He legitimately made fun of Senator Grassley’s questioning of Mark Zuckerberg, demonstrating a lack of “Facebook expertise.”  That joke cut against some of the other candidates: too old to understand “Tweets.”  Yang has a lot to add to the debate, pushing Democrats to deal with more modern social communications.  But he’s not going to be the nominee.  

Healthcare in Common

Democrats all want healthcare for all.  Senators Sanders and Warren want to move America to Medicare for All.  It’s a great idea, and if there were historical do-overs, it’s exactly what America should have done in the 1930’s and 40’s.  But we didn’t.  

A man not on the stage last night was Congressman Tim Ryan.  He makes an important point:  we need to recognize that many Americans are satisfied with their current insurance plans. Labor unions have often negotiated great health care for members, and given away other benefits to get it.  Those union members aren’t willing to give that away, especially when they aren’t guaranteed to get back the other benefits.

On the other hand, there’s a majority of Americans who aren’t in unions.  The millennial generation isn’t unionized, and they are looking for a better way to get health insurance.  So we are in a transition period.

Transition and “do-over” isn’t the same thing.  This means that while the Sanders/Warren plans of Medicare for All may be the ultimate goal, how the United States gets there, how long it takes, and who has to sacrifice now to get it; all need to be considered.  Booker, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Biden are all offering a longer transition period with expanded public options.  

Democrats have to look at electing a President as well as choosing a nominee.  Whether that can be done with the “big ideas, big goals” of the Warren/Sanders wing, or more moderate candidates is unclear.  What is clear is that primary voters are often the most motivated, and Sanders/Warren are strongly connecting with them.

Klobuchar’s Best

Senator Amy Klobuchar made a strong case for staying in the race.  She positioned herself as the moderate who could draw independent and Republican voters, and implied that the Warren/Sanders candidacies risk losing that middle ground.

This was her best debate, showing strength and emotion.  The question is, will the Democratic primary electorate be interested in anyone near the middle besides Biden?  Klobuchar is betting that they will, but so far, Biden’s nailed down the center.

Joe is Joe

We loved Joe Biden as Vice President.  He is inexorably linked to Barack Obama, and that makes him a politically powerful force in the 2020 election.  Who can forget the “hot mike” whispered comment to the President about the passing the Affordable Care Act, “…this is a big f**king deal!!”  It was, and we loved it.

  But there is a reason why this is Biden’s third Presidential campaign. 

When Biden speaks in the debate, it always seems to be halting, correcting, and to fade away.  It would be easy to blame old age for that, using it as a reason to say that Biden is too old for the job.  But Biden did that when he ran for President in 1988, and he did it again when he ran in 2008.  It isn’t old age; it’s Joe.  Like that or not, that’s who he has always been.   

The Next Cut

The next debate will be on November 20^th in Atlanta.  The qualifications are tougher:  higher polling numbers and more individual donations are required.  Eight candidates have already made the cut:  Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Steyer, and Yang.  

There are candidates, notably Tim Ryan and Steve Bullock, who are still campaigning despite not making the stage in Westerville.  It’s not likely that they will get to Atlanta either.  And who else will miss the cut?

Tulsi Gabbard may well be the next left off the list.  She seems far from the mainstream of the Democratic electorate.  But the real question revolves around Beto O’Rourke and Amy Klobuchar.  If they could get on the stage in Atlanta, then they can probably survive, at least to Iowa.  But if they fail, then it might well mean the end of their campaigns.

As I write this, the news came in that Congressman Elijah Cummings of Maryland has died. He has been a “rock” in the current political crisis, and a leader for decades. The United States will miss his strength, especially at this critical time. A hero is gone.

Impeachment Investigation

In the past couple of weeks, the House Intelligence Committee interviewed multiple members of the Trump foreign policy team.  They’ve consistently heard the story of Rudy Giuliani, acting outside of the guardrails of the State Department or the National Security team, pursuing a renegade foreign policy in Ukraine.  When the US Ambassador in Ukraine stood up to him, she summarily lost her job.  The two “bagmen” who helped Giuliani “grease the wheels” in Ukraine are now in Federal custody in Alexandria, Virginia, under indictment and awaiting trial.  

Trump Was Warned

Even the National Security Advisor, John Bolton, another Trump appointee seen as “outside the lines” saw the danger.  He said Giuliani and Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney were involved in a “drug deal”.  Bolton saw Giuliani as a “…hand grenade waiting to explode.”  When he heard the scheme to extort information about Joe Biden from the Ukrainian government, he ordered his aide to take notes, and consult legal counsel.  And, like the Ambassador, Bolton lost his job as well.

What happened in the Ukraine?  Rudy Giuliani knows the answers:  he is the center of President Trump’s plan to extort the Ukrainian Government into investigating Biden.  Implicit in that was that the Ukrainians would find something, real or made up, to tar Biden. Critical defense money needed to defend against Russia was at stake.  

We already know what the President said, and what he wanted.  What Giuliani can tell is how far the plot went, both before and after the fateful phone conversation between Trump and President Zelensky on July 25^th.  

Rejecting Subpoenas

So it is no surprise that the House Intelligence Committee subpoenaed both Giuliani’s documents, and his testimony.  The deadline to respond to the Committee was Tuesday, October 15^th.   In an interview with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News that afternoon, Giuliani announced his refusal to comply.

The letter to Congress from his personal lawyer, Jon Sale, cites the White House Counsel’s previous response to the impeachment inquiries. He claims they are illegitimate and unconstitutional.  Giuliani also claims that his actions were covered under attorney-client and executive privilege. Once the letter was sent, Giuliani fired Sale (National Review.)  

Rudy Giuliani is not an employee of the White House, the Executive Branch, or the United States Government.  He is a private citizen, acting as a supposedly unpaid attorney for Donald Trump.  He has no standing to claim privilege, or deny the subpoena.  

The Speaker

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sees the White House’s “Unconstitutional and illegitimate” argument as obstruction of Congress, another impeachable offense.  Tuesday night, in response to both Giuliani’s and the Office of Management and Budget’s refusal to cooperate, she reaffirmed that the House of Representatives power to determine their own course of action.  The House will maintain “regular order.” 

While there is little formal Constitutional process the House (or Senate) is required to follow in impeachment and trial, traditionally in Presidential impeachments, the House has voted twice.  The first was to authorize an impeachment investigation, the second whether to actually impeach the President.  This is different than “regular order” in the House, where bills are introduced, then referred to committees for study.

The House is following “regular order” by authorizing the committees to inquire as to impeachment.   Speaker Pelosi determined that it is worth the political cost to maintain regular order, that the demand for a “vote” is simply another White House obstruction. She knows that she has the votes to impeach:  clearly, the Speaker wouldn’t ask for a vote she couldn’t win.

A Citizen’s Duty

Giuliani should show up and testify.  If he wants to claim some privilege, then the hearing is the place to begin adjudication of those claims.  Superficially, it seems hard to see how attorney-client privilege would apply.  His actions in Ukraine and the United States are potentially criminal, and those are exempted from privilege by the crime-fraud exception (NOLO.)

Or, he can come in and exercise his Constitutional right against self-incrimination.  He can take “the Fifth” in front of the Adam Schiff, the Committee, God and the United States of America.

What private citizen Giuliani should NOT be able to do is defy the United States Congress with impunity.  He should not be allowed to hide behind the skirts of the President, like a five year-old child.  He was basking in Trump’s glory, travelling the world using the imprimatur of the President of the United States.  Now it’s time to own up for his actions.

The House of Representatives has a police force.  And they have the power to enforce Congressional orders, “inherent contempt” (here’s an essay on how that works.) They should seize Rudy Giuliani and bring him bodily in front of the Committee.  There he can make a choice, testify, exercise his Constitutional rights to remain silent or stand and defy Congress.  

Ambassador Marie Louise Yovanovitch testified for nine hours.  Fiona Hill, former advisor to the President on Russia, testified for eleven.  Secretary of State Pompeo’s former Chief of Staff is testifying as I write this.

Giuliani needs to “man up.”

Game Night

Here in Ohio the Democratic Presidential candidates are gathering for the fourth debate tonight.  It’s just up the road, in the Columbus suburb of Westerville.  Otterbein University will host tonight’s twelve-candidate extravaganza, and Jenn and I are looking for a “sports bar” nearby that will show the debates.  Beer, wings, and cheering Democrats:  sounds like a great way to spend an evening.

The debates seemed so important just a couple of months ago, but the shadow of impeachment may now obscure the great ideas, “plans for that,” and potential gaffs.  What happens in Chairman Schiff’s Congressional hearing room today is much more immediate and serious than what is said tonight at Otterbein. 

But we will watch.  My hope is that the candidates will continue to provide those great ideas for the future, and not fall into the trap of attacking each other.  The Democrat that echoes President Trump and attacks Joe Biden should be the next out of the race.  Right or wrong, Trump’s actions grant a form of immunity to the former Vice President.  Democrats can argue among themselves, but they need to present a united front towards the Trump campaign.

Trump’s Technique

If there is anyone in politics who should be worried about the action of their children, it’s Donald J. Trump.  Don Junior is trading on the Presidency to increase the profits of the Trump Organization. Ivanka gets favorable trade benefits from China, and son-in-law Jared is bailed out of a billion dollar debt by the Qataris.  

Compared to that, whatever Hunter Biden did or didn’t do is peanuts.

But that’s the Trump plan – take the “wrong” things he does, and project those actions onto his opponents. He accused Vice President Biden of corruptly coercing Ukrainian prosecutors (Trump did that) or Hunter peddling his father’s influence (Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka and Jared do that) or President Obama caging children on the border (Trump did that.)  His strategy deflects the blame and tars his opponents:  the truth has little to do with it.

Ohio’s Referendum

Here in Ohio, the Democratic candidates will get the chance to see some “crazy projection” as well.  A few months ago, the Ohio State Legislature passed a law called the “Ohio Clean Air Program”.  The program doesn’t “clean” Ohio’s air; what it does do is cut incentives for renewable energy programs, and bails out the twice bankrupted First Energy Company, owner of two dated nuclear plants along Lake Erie.  The state will pay $1 Billion to First Energy to maintain the facilities. (Here’s the link to the essay about it.)

Ohio is a “referendum” state.  That means that “the people” can put proposed legislation up for a statewide vote, if they can gather enough signatures on petitions.  To get on the ballot, it requires 265,774 signatures.  The folks who are opposed to the “Clean Air Program” include an awkward combination of natural gas producers, environmentalists and renewable energy producers (including energy giant AEP.)  They are trying to get the signatures to put the “Clean Air Program” on a statewide ballot, where it would likely be recalled.

Red Scare

So the gatherers are out, going door to door to get over a quarter-million legal signatures.  And the folks who supported the “Clean Air Program” in the first place are spending a fortune on television ads, warning Ohioans that “strangers” are coming to get their “personal information” somehow to benefit: China.

China, with pictures of goose-stepping soldiers and President Xi, is being blamed for trying to take control of Ohio’s energy.  It’s not.  The only connection:  some natural gas plants got some construction financing from banks in China.  But it’s another example of projection.  First Energy, the nuclear guys, got financing from Chinese banks too.

But you can sense that old “cold war” feeling here in Ohio.  The “Red Chinese” are coming to knock on your door, and make you sign a petition.  Beijing will have your personal information.  Don’t sign, in fact, call this number to let us know they’ve come for you.

Fore-Shadowing

I imagine as they relax in hotel rooms after the debate, some of the Democratic candidates will be asking their staff:  what is that all about?  

Get ready.  Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will face exactly the same tactics.  Democrats are “socialists,” even though that really only describes Bernie Sanders.  Socialists are like Communists (not) and Communists are bad!!!  They’ll take you personal information to Beijing!!  You will be “goose-stepping” down your local Main Street!!

The Trump Administration has nothing to offer when it comes to health insurance.  But they’ll say that Democrats will take yours.  Trump says he will bring back manufacturing to the “rust belt,” but the plants are still closing and moving away.  All of the failures of the past four years will be projected onto the Democrats; it will be Adam Schiff’s or Nancy Pelosi’s fault. 

So, whatever happens tonight at Otterbein, or in the next months in Congress, get ready.  It’s all going to be projected back.

Complainer in Chief

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, called Suzanne Scott, the Chief Executive of Fox News on Sunday.  It wasn’t just to pass the time of day; the President had a complaint.  Fox News, called “Trump News” by many in the rest of the media world, wasn’t covering him fairly, according to the President (The Hill.) 

This is the same Fox News that the President sang the praises for in his recent Minneapolis campaign rally.  There, Mr. Trump went through the Fox News schedule, praising each host by name.  From Fox and Friends in the morning, through Carlson, Ingraham, Pirro, and finally to the “holy grail” of Fox Trump support, Sean Hannity:  Trump called for applause for them all.

Straight Shooters

Except for Shepard Smith, the aberrant “straight shooter” in the Fox News stable.  Smith called out his fellow Fox hosts when they fictionalized the facts to support the President.  Attorney General Bill Barr met with Rupert Murdock, the owner of Fox News on Wednesday night.  Thursday, Smith, a founding member of the Fox News lineup twenty-three years ago, resigned from the organization. 

Suzanne Scott encouraged the President to sit down for a long interview with Bret Bair, another Fox anchor with some reputation for fairness.  While we don’t know if Mr. Trump will do that, what we do know is that he is tremendously disappointed that Fox would conduct and report a poll that showed a majority of the country favors his impeachment and removal from office.  He was also struck that they would employ Smith, or Chris Wallace (“I liked his father better than him” Tweeted Trump) or others that might “cross the line” and criticize him.

The Numbers

Trump may not like the polling data.  The Real Clear Politic summary of polling data shows that the nation is split over impeachment and removal, with 47% against and 46% for (RCP.)  But perhaps more importantly for the President, the Murdoch’s are reading the data as well.  

The phenomenon of Donald Trump is a media creation.  The Fox News network was pivotal, but they aren’t the only ones to blame.  Trump got hours of free media coverage from MSNBC in 2015, particularly on Joe Scarborough’s show. It was invaluable in establishing Trump as a credible candidate.  But the open support of Fox, and the total access the network gave Trump to their airwaves and viewership, helped place him in the White House.  

Fox continues to be the most watched cable news channel in the United States.  It averages 2.43 million viewers per night, as compared to 1.5 million for MSNBC and 1 million for CNN (Statistica.)  (Note:  for those looking for further evidence of division in America, these numbers make it even clearer. There are about 2.5 million Fox viewers, and about 2.5 million MSNBC/CNN viewers.  We are truly a nation divided.)

Fox Follows the Nation

But what happens when the Murdochs’ decide that Donald Trump isn’t good for Fox News?  If the numbers for impeaching and removing the President turn into a growing tide rather than a brief wave, will the network stick with their falling leader?

The Murdoch’s are all business when it comes to their success.  Rupert Murdoch didn’t like Donald Trump in the first place, but business was business, and Trump was good for business.  If support for impeachment continues to grow, don’t be surprised to find Fox News separating from Trump’s side.  And with Fox News goes the Trump base.  Ultimately it isn’t Fox and Friends, or Pirro, or even Hannity.  It’s the man who pulls their strings, who will determine where the Fox Network will go.  

I’ll Supply the War

In the 1890’s making money in the media, newspapers at the time, wasn’t about presenting the facts.  Two famous names in the business, Joseph Pulitzer and William Randolph Hearst, competed to sell the most papers with headlines that grabbed the most attention.  It was called the era of Yellow Journalism.

Pulitzer’s New York World fought for readership against Hearst’s New York Journal.  Hearst determined that a crisis in the Spanish possession of Cuba was “newsworthy.”  He sent reporters to detail the unrest there, and artist Fredric Remington to draw the graphic details.  When Remington, sitting in a bar in Havana, telegraphed Hearst that there was nothing going on, Hearst famously responding:  “You furnish the pictures, I’ll furnish the war” (Medium.)

Murdoch used Trump to sell his network.  He supplied the candidate and America provided him the conflict.  And here we are.  

All Media companies, even my hallowed New York Times and Washington Post, are in business to make money.  And while the Times and the Post may be leading the way discovering the facts leading to impeachment, they are using that leadership to sell papers.

But make no mistake, when Trump supplies his own coffin, Murdoch will supply the nails. 

It seems to happen so quickly.  The stories break, and the focus swings wildly from one part of the story to another.  From the Ambassador, to the texts, to Giuliani’s friends:  a nation used to the drip-drip-drip of the Mueller investigation is standing, mouth open, in front of a fire hose.

The evidence showing the President has abused his power is already out there.  The House could vote today to impeach the President, and send the matter to the US Senate for trial.  So why don’t they?

Teaching America

Nancy Pelosi recognizes that the issue is greater than the technicalities of the Constitution or a vote count on the floor of the House.  Her goal is to educate the American people in what she already knows:  that the President of the United States is using his powers to force other nations to intervene in our election.  

If she can achieve her goal, then the American people will place the Senate Republicans in an impossible position.  Either they vote to remove Mr. Trump from office, or they adhere to the Trump base and face disaster in the general election 2020.  It’s already happening, the latest Fox News poll, the “Trump Broadcasting Network,” shows 51% of Americans want Trump impeached and removed, while another 5% believe he should at least be impeached (Fox.)  Only 40% say he should not be impeached, a figure that closely correlates to the Trump base number.

Republican Plan

The Republican strategy is one of delay-delay-delay.  Members of the House are creating a new theory of impeachment, literally “out of whole cloth.”  They want a “trial” in the House, giving them the ability to present defense witnesses and develop an entirely different theory of the President’s actions.  

That’s not how the process works, but it “sounds” good on the Sunday news shows.  Republican conflate the criminal justice process with impeachment, demanding that the President is innocent until proven guilty, and that he has “due process” rights.  Of course, even in the criminal justice system, a defendant isn’t allowed to exercise those rights until after indictment, the process analogous to the impeachment process.

And the President is “stonewalling” every attempt to get information.  Witnesses are ordered to not testify, subpoenas for information are ignored, and the President’s counsel claims the entire impeachment process is “illegitimate.”  The stall is “on.”

The Courts are gradually ruling against the President.  The Federal Court of Appeals ruled that he must allow his tax returns to be turned over, the Supreme Court, despite being slanted in his favor, is likely to agree.  But the Courts grind slowly, months of argument, debate and decision.  And that’s fine by Republican standards; the longer it takes, the better.

What are they waiting for?  The closer that the impeachment process gets to the primary elections of 2020, the more pressure is placed on Republican candidates to “stand by their man” the President, exerted by the Trumpian base.  And the closer it gets to election; the power of their strongest talking point grows.  That point:  why are we overturning “the will of the people” from 2016?   With only months until the 2020 election, why not let “the people” decide?

The Danger of Delay

And that’s the most valid point Republicans have.  

It should be “the peoples” choice, if possible, rather than the twenty Republican Senators placed under the gun.  The problem is that the evidence shows that the President is trying to subvert the election process.  Speaker Pelosi is trying to educate America on this most important point:  the President is breaking the laws governing elections.  Waiting for 2020 doesn’t change that fact, and if we can’t trust election results (as many feel we couldn’t trust the results of 2016) then we can’t depend on them as the arbiter of Trump’s behavior.

Delay allows the President and his henchmen to continue to demand that other nations intervene in our process.  Trump has already openly asked Ukraine and China, and of course, Russia, “…if you’re listening.” 

And that underlines the greatest danger to our nation.  The danger is that impeachment and elections are both seen as illegitimate by substantial chunks of the American electorate.  And if both of those Constitutional processes don’t work, then what are we left with disaster, in slow motion.

In Support of Bernie

I’ve made it clear that I am not a big “Bernie” supporter.  But on one issue, I understand and agree with him:  heart attack.  Bernie states that he had two stents placed in his heart, and he feels better than ever.  I’ve been there.  Several years ago I experienced a gradual loss of energy and endurance, followed by throat and chest pain.  I went from running dozens of miles a week, to struggling with one.  

After testing, it was determined that I had a blockage.  A forty-five minute procedure put a stent in my coronary artery, and blood flow to my heart was restored.  Days later (five to be exact) I was coaching a cross country meet, scaring my assistants to death running back and forth, and feeling better than I had for months.

I didn’t have a heart attack: dodged that bullet.  Running saved me from that.  I don’t know what damage Bernie’s heart suffered, but clearly it wasn’t terribly traumatic.  I’m sure he feels better than he has for months.  Now let’s get back to finding the best candidate.

To the Wolves

Why did President Trump, unilaterally, throw the Syrian Kurds to the Turkish “wolves”?  What advantage did he, or the United States, gain by allowing our long-term ally to get attacked by the second largest military force in NATO?

The President will tell you that he simply is “keeping his promise” to the American people.  He says that this is just ending another “endless” war.  By withdrawing the few hundred American soldiers left, he ended US involvement easily. He ordered them loaded up on trucks to head north to the Turkish border.

My “Resistance” friends will tell you that this is all about the Trump Tower – Istanbul.  They say that the Trump Organization has money to be made in Turkey, and that now President Erdogan “owes” Mr. Trump.  Expect a big expansion soon.  They will add that the Turkish invasion plays into the hands of Russia, by ending the last resistance to Assad’s control of Syria.  The “Resistance” will tell you that while Erdogan made the call, it was Putin pulling the strings.

An Ultimatum

All this is posited on the premise that the United States is working from a position of strength.  But what if Erdogan recognized that even if the US has the most powerful military in the world, Trump has made it clear that he won’t use it.  What if Saturday’s phone call wasn’t about Trump Tower, or Turkey’s ability to stabilize the Middle East.  

The Turkish call may well have been from a more powerful position.  Erodgan may simply have said we are invading Syria, we are ending the Syrian Kurd Army, and your few troops either need to get out of the way or risk death.  Erdogan may not have been making a “request” but rather, issuing an ultimatum.

The speed and scope of the Turkish invasion has been planned for months.  The US troops must have seen the smoke and destruction in their rearview mirrors.  It seems obvious that the Turks were invading, Wednesday was D-Day, and the phone call was a “courtesy” to the President, not asking permission.

The few US troops in Northern Syria served as a “trip-wire.”  The Turkish forces know full well that US casualties change everything and a world picture of two NATO allies battling each other terrifies everyone. It also plays straight into Vladimir Putin’s hands.  The President of the United States may well have been given a choice: run or fight.  

It must be incredibly awkward at Incirlik Airbase in Turkey this week.  This is where US Forces flew air support against ISIS.  Now, the Turkish Air Force may well be flying combat operations against the Syrian Kurds from the same runways.  By the way, at least fifty US nuclear warheads are stored there.

Sanctions

President Trump threatens Turkey with economic sanctions.  It seems so, helpless, so weak:  after pulling the representatives of the might of the most powerful military in the world out of the way.  And what about the American supplied Turkish Army and Air Force?  Well, the Turks are already turning to Russia for military hardware; perhaps the US is “buying” their loyalty back by giving them the Kurds.

And certainly the world can recognize that Mr. Trump is weakened.  The Mueller Report, the Ukraine call, impeachment investigations, and the looming 2020 election; all show Trump as possibly a short timer in the White House.  

I’m no “hawk.”  I grew up in the Vietnam era; I know what it’s like for Americans to fight a war without cause, and seemingly without end.  But I also know that the President has sent a message to the world:

“Let the word go forth, the United States will bear little cost, suffer no burden, to stand by our allies.  Stand with us today, but don’t depend on us tomorrow.  When it gets tough, we’ll be gone.”

Trump was pushed around by Erdogan.  The United States was threatened by Turkey.  That’s the “powerful America” that Mr. Trump created, and that will be another of his legacies to be fixed.