Obsession

Our Future

What am I looking forward to in the Biden Administration?  Well – big “corrections” of some of the past practices of the Trump Administration.  And Joe Biden is “on it”.  The first days promise a taskforce for COVID, a taskforce to reunite the 666 kids separated from their parents, and America’s return to both the Paris Accord and the World Health Organization.  

And regardless of who controls the Senate, we know that President Biden will go to work on healthcare.  Whether it’s improving the Affordable Care Act, or a Supreme Court decision forced redo of the whole process – Americans will find a way to have broad healthcare coverage for as many as possible.

Senate Elections

And there’s a long list of other issues, many hinging on the results of the Alaska and Georgia Senate elections.  Currently there are forty-eight Democratic Senators and forty-nine Republican seats.   Two seats are up in the Georgia runoff, and one still remains to be decided in Alaska. If Republicans win two of the three, then they have control of the Senate by one.  If the Senate is tied 50-50, the new Vice President, Kamala Harris, will break the tie for the Democrats.  

Alaska you ask?  Currently Alaska has only counted 61% of their votes.  It’s a big state with a small and far-flung population, voting by mail, airplane, and even dog sled.  The current Republican Senator, Dan Sullivan, is in the lead with 62% of the vote at the moment.  But his opponent, Independent Al Gross, who would align with the Democrats in the Senate, is less than 60,000 votes behind.  There are almost 176,000 votes left to count – so there is still a chance.

Georgia On My Mind

(Ray Charles – of course)

But the Georgia dual runoff will probably decide Senate control.  And it seems like a long shot for the two Democratic challengers, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.  They face two incumbents, David Perdue and appointee Kelly Loeffler.  On January 5th (there goes Christmas) there will be the “final stand” of the 2020 election, the season, and the year, that doesn’t want to die.  

The first Senate meeting of the 2021 session is January 3rd.  On that day, (assuming Sullivan wins in Alaska) there will be fifty Republicans and forty-eight Democrats, and Mitch McConnell will organize the Senate.  But he shouldn’t get too comfortable.  Who knows who might show up two weeks later (there’s another count) from the state of Georgia?

And we thought the $200 million plus campaign in South Carolina was expensive.  With two years of Senate control on the line, there will be fire hoses worth of money pouring into Georgia from all sides.  The newly empowered Democratic Party in the state is anxious to flex muscle at the polls.  And the winner will be – the local media markets that won’t be able to create enough television advertising time.  Sorry Santa, the Senators have bought it all up.

Back to Life

The other thing I’m looking forward to is “the obsession” to end.  Over the past four years, “mainlining” the “news” has become a habit.  It’s on every TV in every room of the house.  Even Lou, the broken dog we’re rehabbing back to health, gets MSNBC almost 24/7.  It’s on the radio in the cars, in headphones as I cut the grass, and the background “music” to our dinners and breakfasts.

Sunday, I put on real music as we worked around the house: music – (Aaron Burdett – Pennies on the Track).  Tomorrow night we may actually watch TV – like drama on TV besides the ongoing drama in Washington, Wilmington, and Mara Lago.  (Sure, we’ll record Rachel for later).

The intensity of the past months struck home yesterday afternoon – we got an anniversary card.  Jenn looked at me, and we both realized – it’s our eighth wedding anniversary today (November 10th).  Eight years ago we gathered with our family and best friends at Salt Fork Lake to have a party that included a wedding.  It seems so long ago.  And the date was going right on by – neither of us remembered:  too much craziness going down.

So what do I look forward to most from President Joe Biden?  You do your job, I’ll do mine.  When it’s important, let me know.  Otherwise, just get things done.  No, I’m not giving up a lifelong involvement in politics and history.  But with the Biden inauguration, it will be nice to re-balance life.  

Biden’s Priority

Resistance

I received a message from a former student yesterday.  He is on the opposite side of the political spectrum from me: a Trump supporter and a pro-life advocate. He’s a man who sees protestors as property destroyers.  He believes that folks like me never gave Donald Trump a “chance”.  We were the “Resistance” from the beginning, from Muslims bans to Russia, Charlottesville to Ukraine, and finally to COVID.  

My student carefully (and respectfully, I think) pointed out the hypocrisy he sees in Joe Biden asking for unity.  And he quietly mocked Sunday’s essay about “taking back” the flag,  Our Flag. We don’t agree, but I’m glad that after four years he’s still reading some of my essays.  I hope he reads this one.  And, he’s not wrong.

We did “Resist” from the beginning.  My first essay on “Trump World” was published on February 10th, 2017, less than a month after the inauguration. We questioned the legitimacy of the 2016 election.  And we rejected the actions of the President from the very, very beginning.  I’ve got over nine hundred essays to prove it.

Legitimacy

This wasn’t the first time I saw a Presidency as illegitimate.  In the last couple of weeks there’s been a lot of talk about the election of 2000.  It was between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore (with just enough of a smattering of the Green Party’s Ralph Nader to alter the outcome).  The results were so close, that it came down to an incredibly thin slice of voters in Florida.

In any mass of numbers, there is always some statistical “margin of error”. The Electoral College vote came down to Florida’s twenty-five.  Out of almost six million votes cast there, the difference between Bush and Gore was less than six hundred.  It was such a small margin, that it almost fell in that “margin of error”.  If you re-counted the votes, over and over again, you might get a different outcome each time:  a flip of a coin.

A Republican “riot” stopped the re-count in heavily Democratic Miami-Dade County.  The Governor of Florida, George Bush’s brother Jeb, refused to recuse himself from the process.  The entire Florida system seemed rigged for the Republicans, and when the Supreme Court ruled in favor of stopping the count at the moment when it was in Bush’s favor, that sealed the feeling. The Court voted five to four, the five Republican appointees against the four Democratic appointees.

Earning the Presidency

So many didn’t see George Bush’s Presidency as legitimate.  Folks have “spotty” memories:  few remember the “resistance” to Bush that lasted from January 20th 2001, until September 11th.   But we all remember what happened then.

George Bush earned his legitimacy as President in the days and weeks after 9-11.  He rose to the challenge from his first speech from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. In those first dark hours after the attack Bush made it clear:

“Freedom itself was attacked this morning by a faceless coward, and freedom will be defended.  The full resources of the federal government are working to assist local authorities, to save lives, and to help the victims of these attacks. Make no mistake: The United States will hunt down and punish those responsible for these cowardly acts.”

  He went on to Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska, the headquarters of the Strategic Air Command where he met with the National Security Council and then determined to return to the White House against their advice.  We literally watched as Air Force One and the fighter escorts flew home.  They were the only planes in the sky.

In the next weeks he spoke at Ground Zero:  “I can hear you! I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people — and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon!”  But he also spoke at a mosque, making it clear that the United States was waging war against Al Qaeda, not all Muslims.

Legitimacy

After 9-11, America accepted George W. Bush as the legitimate President.  And while many continued to oppose his policies, particularly the CIA’s secret torture campaign and the war in Iraq, Bush won a second term in office.  He earned his Presidency.

Trump never won the opposition over, not even to the point of being a “loyal opposition”.  Even in a crisis more extreme than 9-11, the COVID crisis, the President never “rose to the moment” as George Bush did.  Instead, we now know, he whispered to a reporter that he knew “how bad” COVID was, but wouldn’t tell the American people.

So my old student is right.  Donald Trump was resisted from the very beginning, and until the “bitter” end.  But Donald Trump also never “rose to the moment” when he could win over the resistance, and bring the American people together.  

It’s up to Joe Biden now.  It’s clear he’s made it his priority to “reunite” America.  That’s a daunting task:  there’s pressure from the left to move their agenda.  They claim credit for winning Georgia and the “Blue Wall” states.  There’s pressure from the “right”, the Never-Trump Lincoln Republicans, who claim the same credit, seeing the Biden suburban support in part as their contribution.  And there’s pressure from the “Resistance”, who want nothing more than to see the Trump family in prison.

I don’t expect my friend to “fall in line” beneath the flag. And I certainly don’t expect all Americans to support all of Biden’s agenda.  But it’s not about giving Biden “a chance”.    It’s up to Biden to prove his legitimacy and win a “loyal opposition”.  

Biden must earn his place.

Our Flag

“The Star Spangled Banner, Oh long may it wave, o’er the land of the free, and the home of the brave”  – The US National Anthem

Battles

Sometimes it seems like a battle.  Not the battle for Fort McHenry in Baltimore harbor, but a battle for the symbology of America.  The flag of the United States, the “Star Spangled Banner”, was “claimed” by one side of the partisan debates for the past four years.  If you supported President Trump, you got the flag.  You put it in front of your house, or on the back of your truck.  If you didn’t, well, it wasn’t yours.

It was a way to make “Resistance” feel somehow “un-American”.  

I resisted that trend from the very beginning.  There’s been a flag, the Star Spangled Banner, waving at the front of my house for decades.  With the election of Donald Trump, I was even more determined to keep it there.  American patriotism is not defined by partisan loyalty, and I was not going to allow one side of the debate to claim it.

But it’s been tough sometimes.  There are things that “we’ve” done in the past four years that I’m not proud of.  The same flag waving over my front door also waved over the border post in McAllen, Texas as children were taken from their parents.  It was on the uniforms of soldiers sent to clear peaceful protestors from Lafayette Park.  And Neo-Nazis in Charlottesville “proudly” carried it as they chanted, “Jews will not replace us”.  

The President that I worked to remove, by election, indictment and impeachment, literally wrapped himself in the flag.  It was “his”: to love America you must love Trump.  Towards the end it almost became a joke.   How many American flags were there on stage as Donald Trump falsely claimed election victory election on Friday?

Our Flag

So it was with a full heart that I watched Joe Biden and Kamala Harris claim the real victory last night in Wilmington, Delaware.  Sure there were Biden/Harris posters, handmade signs and a sweet fireworks display with drones.  And of course there were flags on the stage.  But what struck me was the number of people in the crowd carrying the Star Spangled Banner.  From little kids waving little flags, to full-sized parade flags carried by adults, to even flags thrust through the sunroofs of the assembled “drive-in”, socially distanced crowd.  

They were reclaiming our flag for Joe Biden, and for themselves. They were saying:  we represent America too.  And our America can be one of change, of hope, and of diversity.  President-Elect Biden (there – I finally typed it, I feel better already) offered a message of hope and dignity last night.  He repeated his mantra of the last two years:  though he was elected as a Democrat, he will be a President for all Americans. 

Legitimacy

There will be a battle on social media for the next few weeks.  “The Demon-crats cheat” has been the cry since before the first vote was mailed in.  Recognizing that he might well lose, Donald Trump tried to rig this election, to make it about letting “his” voters choose, and disenfranchising the rest.  The strategy couldn’t have been clearer than in the vote counts.  Mail-in voting was dominated by Biden, Election Day turnout by Trump.  It fit so perfectly into the “cheating” narrative Trump was pushing.  Where did those “mysterious” Biden votes come from in Philadelphia? Why weren’t they counted from the “start”?  It’s Philly; the Democrats always cheat in Philly.

Dude – they were in the mail, the mail Trump intentionally slowed.  And they “appeared” later, because the Republican Pennsylvania legislature wouldn’t let them be processed or counted until Election Day.  This wasn’t an accident:  it was a “grand design” of the Trump campaign to back their narrative.  The problem for them is – most people know it’s not true.

One Nation

The shock of the election for me was how many millions of people still supported Donald Trump.  But imagine the shock for them, those folks who claimed the flag, to find that even more Americans wanted Joe Biden?  No wonder the “rigged” election myth found fertile ground.  We live in our “bubbles”.  How could there possibly be so many Biden (or Trump) supporters?

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris earned 74 million votes, and still counting; the most votes ever for a Presidential ticket.  And they have an Electoral College victory, one that ultimately will be larger than Trump’s in 2016.  While it may take a week or two for that to “sink in” with the American people, I believe that most Trump supporters will come to see it as legitimate.  

And then, for a little while at least, we can all stand under the same flag: E Pluribus Unum.  Out of many one.  

Note: So I try to write essays in advance – and I had a long one on the election process all ready for today. But last night’s Biden victory speech was too important ignore – and so I wrote “Our Flag”. If you have more time on your hands than you should – here’s the “process” essay – Sunday-Sunday-Sunday.

Sunday-Sunday-Sunday

Old School

Elections have changed in the COVID era.  The “old-school” election took place on Tuesday.  The vast number of voters went to the polls, where they were “processed” by poll workers.  They got a ballot, made their selections, and their ballot was checked and tabulated.  The precinct tabulations were added together, and the election results reported out in a few hours.  We knew “who won” by late Tuesday evening.

Process

Early voters today go to a central polling place, where the same processing occurs.  “Processing” is about three things.  First, it’s about identity, are you who you say you are.  In the “Red Map” era, that’s become much more involved, as many states demand a State Identification document for “proof”.  For most suburban voters, a Driver’s License solves the problem and it’s not a big deal.  For urban voters, and particularly for lower income voters, obtaining a state ID is a more difficult issue.  And that’s intentional, the ID laws are written to keep them from voting.

Second it’s about voting only once.  There are many opportunities to vote:  early in-person voting, absentee or “mail-in” voting, and regular in-person Election Day voting.  While the Democratic Party joke is to “Vote early and Vote often”, in reality the system is designed to prevent exactly that.  Not only do the ballots need to be counted and protected; but a record needs to be kept of all voters and when they vote (not who they vote for).  So when you get a “mail-in” ballot, but still choose to go to the polls on Election Day, the “system” has to “know” that you had both.  Only one can count, so either you “spoil” the “mail-in” when you vote at the polls,  or you commit voter fraud, and are subject to criminal sanctions.

Third it’s about getting the “right” ballot.  Different jurisdictions have different issues up for vote.  Here locally in Pataskala there are two possible school districts, several different local governmental jurisdictions, and a variety of precinct level issues.  So when you vote, they need to make sure you are voting on the correct issues for your residence.

COVID World

When a voter chooses to vote by mail, the first two parts of the “process” don’t take place until the Board of Elections receives your ballot.  And in COVID world, millions of Americans decided that it was safer to vote by mail.  Who can blame them, COVID infection rates are higher than ever.  Over 100,000 Americans are getting infected a day, and over a thousand are dying from the disease daily.

When that mail-in ballot arrives at the Board of Elections, the small number of central workers goes through the processes for each one.  And, since many state legislatures restrict when the processing can begin and don’t allow the ballots to be touched until Election Day –it takes a while.

So in the “good old days” we all did our “Norman Rockwell” and lined up at the polls to vote on Election Day.  Only the really sick, aged, or those out of town were allowed to vote absentee.  It was Election Day, and the results were out on Election night.

But now we can vote for almost a month before the technical Election Day.  And many millions of Americans vote by mail.  We don’t pay Boards of Elections to have the numbers of personnel to process all of those mail ballots in an evening, so it takes more time to count them.  Just as we now have a voting season, we also have a counting season (A time to vote, a time to count – Turn-Turn-Turn*).  

Partiality

Boards of Election recognize that their work is fraught with danger.  Everyone is worried about someone cheating, adding or subtracting votes to control who gets elected.   One way to deal with that would be to have a “neutral” counting system, kind of a “monastery” of vote counters who don’t have a “dog in the fight”.  But no one really trusts that impartiality,  and so we have the opposite.

In each Board of Election in each county or parish or district, there are parallel jobs.  If the Director is a Republican, the Deputy is a Democrat.  If the head clerk is a Democrat, the Assistant Clerk is a Republican.  When votes are counted, at least two do the counting – you guessed it, one Democrat, one Republican.  We keep our election system honest by making everything transparent, and then putting both political parties in as part of the process.

We also allow observers into the process to watch.  They are only observers (JAFO) and have no part in the process.  They can’t talk, they can’t touch, and if they see something, they have a separate procedure to report it.  But that has led to a problem in our recent elections.

In 2000, a group of Republican staffers determined that the vote re-count was going against their candidate.  They disrupted the process.  Inside as observers, they began to chant, yell, and pound on the walls.  It got so bad, that the re-count was halted, giving the staffers exactly what they wanted.  And that tactic is now part of partisan “lore”:  everyone is willing to try to gain that advantage.  So the “observers” are now trying to be participants, and if they get kicked out, have a “cause celebre” to put on YouTube.

Unofficial

So here we are on the Sunday after Tuesday of “election season”.  The “final unofficial” counts are almost complete.  The networks, appointing themselves to the task of declaring “winners”, may actually have gathered the courage to make their declarations.  Maybe NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox and the Associated Press will say what we all can reasonably see:  Joe Biden is the next President of the United States.  

Not that what they say actually matters.  The states will certify their results in about a week. The candidates will have the opportunity to question, or demand recounts, or whatever, after that.  The final certification of results will be the first week of December, and the Governors will certify their Electors to the Electoral College and that time. And it actually isn’t until January 6th, 2021, that the Congress receives and counts those votes, and declares an official winner for President and Vice President (US Code §15).

Which gives Donald Trump plenty of time to question the results, stir up rumors of cheating, and deny the will of the voters.  

A time for votes, a time for count.

 A time for whining, a time for protests.

A time for courts, a time fear.

A time for a new leaders, 

I hope it’s not too late.*

(*Apologies to the Byrds and Pete Seeger for co-opting their song!!).

Indefinite Shore

Lincoln

Abraham Lincoln had a recurring dream.  He was in a boat in the night, out in the water.  He was moving forward towards “…a dark indefinite shore”.  He didn’t know what was on the shore, and he always awoke before the boat arrived.  But, as Lincoln told his Cabinet on April 14th 1865, that dream always foretold some great event, perhaps a great battle.  And since on that day a week after Appomattox, there was only one major Confederate Army left in the field, Lincoln thought that it must means their final surrender.

It would be two weeks before Confederate General Johnson surrendered to Sherman in North Carolina.  But, of course, there was an even more important major event in the meantime.  After the Cabinet meeting that night, April 14th, Lincoln was shot and killed in Ford’s Theatre.

Slow Motion

COVID has changed our world.  Instead of the Election Night celebration or nightmare that we knew from the past four elections, we watched a slow motion count.  More like the “dimpled chad” election of 2000, or the slow “Blue Wave” of 2018, the path to Biden’s potential victory is incredibly drawn out.  We went to bed on Tuesday (for those who could) convinced that Americans turned back to Trump once again.  But Wednesday, it was Arizona that oddly gave us emotional hope.  And then we began to see the pattern of our new world of early and mail-in voting.  What used to be voting day became voting month, and what used to be a one-night count, Election Night, has stretched into ninety-six hours.  

This morning Biden edged into the lead in Georgia.  As I literally write this paragraph, the load of votes in Philadelphia were just added to the totals.  The results show Biden in the lead for Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral Votes.  There is only one conclusion.  In spite of Trumpian anguish, the gnashing of teeth, tearing of cloth and inevitable Court battles, Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States.

At least he better be.  Trumpians have warned of us a “civil war” when Trump was re-elected, of “Antifa” inspired mobs attacking the cities.  It was convincing enough that prudent merchants in urban areas began to board up their windows.  So now what?

Pick-‘Em-Up Truck War

Should we expect a reverse war now?  Will gun toting, flag flying pick-‘em-up trucks mass on the interstate highways, shutting down commerce to support their President?  Here in Pataskala, should we start boarding up our windows to keep “Trump” rioters from tearing up the suburbs?

They’ve been “conditioned” (brainwashed) to believe that all the “mail-in” ballots are “fake votes”.  Trump himself led the charge for months, and now right-wing media is screaming it on the broadest bandwidth.  Their analogy:  “I watched the game end, saw the score, and knew we won.  Now they are changing the score, cheating to win!”.  The car that drove by our “Biden sign” house last night knew it well – they screamed “Cheaters!!” into the darkness.  But of course that analogy doesn’t work – we all watched the game, and NO ONE knew the score.  We are more like those poor smiling figure skaters, sitting with flowers and stuffed animals, waiting for the judges to reach their calculations. We have waited this long ninety-six hours to find out the actual results.

But figure skating “ain’t” popular “out here”.  And I’m sure there will be more protests, more “Trump Trucker Rallies”, more “long rifles” appearing on the streets. And probably more than just “cheaters” yelled from speeding cars on our road.  Here in ex-urban Ohio, it will grow tense.

Hugh Scott

In 1974 the Supreme Court in the United States v Nixon, ordered the President to release “the tapes”.  Nixon recorded most conversations in the White House.  He hated reporters, and wanted to have direct evidence of what was said and done when it came time to write the “history” of the Nixon years.  

He “bugged” himself.  All the conversations and plans of covering up the Watergate break-in were on long reels of audiotape.  When the world found out about the tapes, the Watergate Special Prosecutor moved to seize them.  Nixon refused, claiming “executive privilege”.  

When the Supreme Court issued their decision, some of Nixon’s staff argued that they should just destroy the tapes, perhaps in a bonfire on the White House lawn.  But the Republican leaders of Congress, Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott, House Minority Leader John Rhodes and Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, went to the White House.  They told Nixon that he no longer had the support of the Republicans in Congress, that impeachment and conviction were now inevitable.

Nixon resigned two days later.

Out of Darkness

America is headed towards a “dark, indefinite shore”.  We cannot expect Donald Trump to concede, to gracefully leave the stage.  It’s not in his nature, and it’s also not in his own personal interest.  His financial future is tied to the “Trumpian cult” he has created.  Based on his own “victimhood”, Trump must play out the role of the aggrieved leader, illegitimately removed from office.  It’s going to drive subscriptions for “Trump TV”, coming soon to a cable network near you.  They’ll place it between CNN and MSNBC on your schedule.

We can fight this out.  I do not expect a “civil war”, and I don’t expect marauding bands of pick-‘em-up trucks to tear through my neighborhood.  But our nation will remain so severely divided that we will have to wait a whole generation to recover.

Or, like Scott, Rhodes and Goldwater, the leaders of the Republican Party, absent for so long, can finally stand-up.  They can take the walk to the White House, and support the  Constitution and the American model of government.  While not every Trump acolyte will follow, enough will to avoid the inevitable alternative.

They can steer our boat from the “dark indefinite shore”.  It’s their last best chance for legitimacy.  And it’s our best chance to move forward as a nation.

Waiting on Results

Track and Field

Election Days are long, especially when you’ve already voted.  And waiting on the results may well be longer – days longer – so I’m getting some thoughts down before we get the final “final” results.

For thirty-five years I was the head boys track coach at the local high school.  I know: it’s track, an “individual” sport.  But they have team scores in the meets, and being part of a “team” makes athletes perform above themselves.  Running “for themselves” is limited, running for the guy beside you, who has trained as hard as you have:  that makes athletes “rise up” (I know – another Hamilton reference).  

We would run eight or so Invitational meets a year.  And in most of those, we put our best team together, put them on the track or in the field, and let them go.  But for the Conference and District meets, we did a lot of “scouting” and preparation.  We wanted to win, to be Champions, and we would not only put our best team forward, but in a way to maximize our scoring.

Score Sheet

So in the weeks before the meet I would put together a score sheet:  us versus the rest of the Conference.  I would match everyone up, event by event, and try to anticipate how we would score.  There would be the “dream” meet, where everything went right.  There would be the “normal” meet, where some things would go wrong, but we would be OK.  And there was the “minimum” meet, the absolute worst we could do and still win the meet.

Why am I telling you all of this?  Because winning sports contests and winning political campaigns are very similar.  Take it from one who has done both.  So I have my Joe Biden list, my “score sheet”.  Instead of the different events, from the hundred to the mile to the pole vault to the discus, we have states.  Each state is an individual contest:  Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and all the rest.  But all add up to the “team win”, or the Biden Presidency.

Election Day

And I spent Election Day, hoping for the “dream” election, where Texas, Georgia, Arizona and Ohio all go to Biden.  For as long as I’ve been a Democrat (that’s at least sixty-one years) I’ve believed that if EVERYONE got to vote, Democrats would win.  On Tuesday, it was time to put that to a test.  Over one hundred million people voted, before even the day of the election.  Estimates are that another sixty or seventy million more voted on the day.  So if you believe that more votes helps Democrats – then it should be the “Dream” list.

But, in almost every Conference championship meet we ran, there were moments when it looked like the “dream” meet was out the window, and we were working on the “minimum” score.  And in the past few days, there have been times when I started to think that way.  Social media doesn’t help, panic is infective, and some of my Facebook “friends” are panicking.  I’ve got as good or better information than they do, and I know better.  But that doesn’t change my indigestion.

And, no matter how well we planned our strategies, there were those meets when things fell below the minimum.   We didn’t plan on our star miler getting tripped in the race, we didn’t have a backup when our best 100-meter runner pulled a hamstring, and sometimes (though seldom) some other coach had a better “plan” than we did.

I didn’t feel that way on Election Day with the polls still open and voters lined up.  We didn’t seem to need the minimums. We had the dream solution in sight.  But then the votes started coming in.

What’s Left

The “dream” solution went out with Florida and North Carolina.  It took a bigger hit here in Ohio.  We found out something that I didn’t want to believe – that there are still many Americans who think that what Donald Trump represents is “good”.  I wrote a whole essay on that, but I can’t print it.  It’s too close to the “bone” of too many friends.

So now it’s Thursday morning, and the minimum list is the only one left:  Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania – and Nevada.  That’s what our Presidency depends on.  Biden can still win, but so can Trump.  

I wadded up the checklist yesterday.  I’ve got it memorized, along with the vote totals for each state. 

Today we will know.

Thief in Chief

Florida

It was November of 2000.  The election between Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W Bush was down to one state, Florida.  Out of the millions of Florida votes, the margin between the two was less than one thousand.  Florida law called for a mandatory recount, and several heavily Democratic counties began the painstaking task of examining each ballot.

The campaign staff for Bush determined that to wait for the logical outcome, the final count; was dangerous to their candidate’s chances.  So instead of allowing the count to take its course, they waited until they had a slim lead in the ongoing recount.  Then, in what today is called the “Brooks Brothers Riot”, the well dressed young Republican lawyers and staffers flown into Florida crammed in the Palm Beach Board of Elections and “stormed” the counting area.  

The members of the Board felt so threatened, they stopped the count.  Bush was winning.  The Secretary of State of Florida, at the behest of the Governor of Florida, Bush’s brother Jeb, certified the incomplete count of the election as official. The United States Supreme Court in a five to four decision, accepted that enumeration, and mandated the counting to stop.  That was five Republican appointed Justices to four Democratic appointees.

Vice President Gore gracefully conceded the election. 

In the Dark of Night 

Donald Trump learned well from his mentor, Roger Stone, one of the instigators of the Brooks Brothers Riot.  Tonight, just a few moments ago, he instigated a “riot” of his own, writ-large, by claiming that the vote counts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania must stop.  The counts there are incomplete, with millions of ballots still to be counted from heavily Democratic Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.  If Biden was to win those states, he could claim the Presidency. But if those cities are disenfranchised, then Trump can claim his false victory.

He promises to take his “case” to the Supreme Court.  And I will say this: John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Bennett all were lawyers in Florida on the Bush staff in that November of 2000.  It’s difficult to believe in their justice, when the justices are already tainted.

Vice President Joe Biden is not conceding. He leads in Arizona and Wisconsin, and believes if the count is complete he will be President. He rightfully demands that every vote be counted.  And surely lawyers from both sides are already on site in those cities, ready to do whatever is necessary to further their “clients’ needs.  We will see whether democracy or theft will prevail. 

Disappointed

I am immeasurably disappointed in my fellow Americans.  After all that Donald Trump has done, he still received immense numbers of votes.  Abraham Lincoln was right:  you can fool most of the people, most of the time.  Donald Trump has proven that. 

I had an argument with a former student, now a Trump supporter, about whether there would be protests after the elections.  I said that as long as the outcome was fair, there would be no need for demonstrations.  But if this election is stolen, then I can see little choice but to go to the streets, and take whatever action needed.  If the legal means of expression are dictatorially slammed shut, what else can be done?

It’s 3:00 am.  I know better than to write when I’m angry, or incredibly disappointed.  And I know that the sun will come up, soon, and that the count, and the fight, will continue. 

 Joe Biden isn’t done, and neither am I.

Thoughts on Election Day

High Holy Day

It’s Election Day, the “High Holy Day” of American Democracy.  We’ve been lining up to vote since before the Constitution, even before the Declaration of Independence.  We voted during conflict, even the Civil War.  We voted during the last great pandemic, the Spanish Flu of 1918 ( Mr. Trump, not 1917).  America is really doing what it does best, letting the citizenry determine the leadership of the nation.

Sure, there’s all of the craziness of the Electoral College.  It used to be quaint, a relic of a bygone time that we still respected.  After seeing that system supersede the “counted will” of the people twice in the past score of years, I know longer see it as “traditional”.   But that debate is for another time.  Two Hundred and Seventy is the magic number, the majority that anoints a new President for four years.

We may not know in the next eighteen hours who won the Presidency this round.  That’s not the product of some subversion of the process or nefarious motive.  No, we are going to have the largest election in American history.  By the time early voting closed yesterday, over 100 million people voted for President.  In 2016 127 million voted.  Today it’s very likely that another fifty million or more will exercise their right.  With all of our “arcane” counting methods, that’s going to take some time, perhaps more than a “call” before midnight.

And with all of the talk and nonsense about the Trump team “sending in the lawyers”, it’s really a matter of them saying, “We are losing, what can we do?”  Winners don’t talk about lawyers and not counting votes, only Losers do.  It’s like the wining football team complaining about the officiating – they don’t really care.  I like candidates who Win elections.

Two-Dollar Bills

Speaking of arcane laws, Michigan has one that says you cannot pay drivers to take people to the polls.  It’s left over from the 19th century, when “bandwagons,” literally wagons with bands on them, would go down the street handing out two-dollar bills for people to jump on and go vote.  It became a mark of dishonor:  having a two-dollar bill meant you sold your vote.  It also meant you “got on the bandwagon”.   It’s why folks stopped using the two-dollar bill.

And one of the great advances of the 19th Century was the use of the “secret ballot”.  Before 1884, everyone knew how everyone else voted (thus the guaranteed two-dollars).  It was only after 1884 that the vote in most states was secret.  And it wasn’t even an American invention – the other name for the “secret” ballot is the Australian ballot.

So if it’s a secret ballot, how do they talk about, “Trump doing better in early voting in Florida than Biden”?  The answer is, they only know that John Smith of Sebastian, Florida has voted early.  And they know that John Smith is a registered Republican.  So the assumption (you know how that goes) is that John Smith voted for Donald Trump.  But they don’t really know that, and when they count the votes, they won’t ever know which candidate John Smith actually voted for.  What if there are a lot of Republicans who decided that they didn’t want to vote for Trump, and chose someone else? 

I voted early, and I’m a registered Democrat.  As it turned out, I did vote for Joe Biden (no surprise) but they really don’t know that.   So in an election when a number of notable Republicans, including the Lincoln Project folks and the former Governors of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio publicly committed for Joe Biden – who knows?

Vote Early

It’s very strange not to be going to the polls today.  In a pandemic world, it made a lot more sense to vote early (not the old Chicago line – “vote early and vote often”).  But I will do a “drive-by” of my polling place and maybe a couple of others, just to see how things are going.  

Here in Pataskala, we definitely live in “Trump Country”.  But our town has the right attitude. Yes Donald Trump will win here, but my neighbors are still waving as they drive by our Biden sign, talking to us on the street, and were “up in arms” when some kids stole our original signs.  Maybe they knew what would happen, from two Biden signs we now have five, plus two Biden pumpkins.  I’m sure they’ll be glad to see them go, but “they’ll defend to the death our right to say it”. 

Random Thoughts

Two last oddities, then you should go VOTE!!!!!  The first:  remember the “zero year curse”? It was a staple of Eighth Grade American History, that every President elected in a “zero year” after 1840 died in office.  It was supposed to be a curse that Tenskwatawa, the brother of Tecumseh, placed on General William Henry Harrison . Harrison was the General when Tecumseh was killed at the battle of Thames River.  Harrison, elected President in 1840, caught pneumonia at his own inauguration and died thirty days later. 

It held true – Harrison, Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, Harding, Franklin Roosevelt, and Kennedy all were elected in a “zero year” and died in office.  It wasn’t until 1980 that Ronald Reagan “broke” the curse, and George W. Bush followed suit.  It’s 2020 and the curse is long gone – but it was a good story to keep eighth graders involved in class.  

And the second oddity has nothing to do with politics, just dogs.  It’s the first week of “standard time”, and our dogs don’t get it.  Now we are up at five, and they think dinner should be served at four.  Buddy, our oldest, and I sat down and had a long talk about railroads, Savings Time and Standard Time, but somehow he didn’t care.  He wasn’t waiting another hour for dinner!!!

Have a good day and long night.  However it turns out, we are engaged in the process that makes the United States different from many other countries.  With all of our problems, we should celebrate this tradition.  

And a Biden win would make it even better. 

Apocalypse – No

Civil War

The doomsayers are loud among us.  “We are headed towards a new Civil War!!” they cry out.  “ANTIFA is coming to burn your combine,” (not making that up, after one with Trump flags burned in a field in rural Nebraska).  “The Proud Boys will be at our polling place”.  Some demonstrations in the streets turned violent last summer.  Some took advantage of Black Lives Matter to burn, loot, and destroy.  And some police officers aren’t helping: young children were pepper-sprayed this weekend at a voting march in North Carolina.  So-called “Militias,” heavily armed with assault rifles and combat gear are strutting around the State House lawns.  It feels tense.

And it doesn’t help that the President of the United States is sowing the seeds of discontent.  For months, President Trump has warned that “mail-in ballots” (except, of course, HIS mail-in ballot in Florida) were fraudulent.  He is now poised to attack the election results in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota.  He will “short-circuit” the results – declaring a faux “victory” whenever the count suits his purpose.  And he claims that “his” Supreme Court will “back him up”.

Those of us who spent four years in the “Resistance” are ready to flood the streets, defending the election process against Trump’s outrageous claims.  And then there are the “Trucking Trumpsters”: pickup trucks with Trump flags flapping, “parading” on the Interstates and disrupting traffic.  Things grew more than just inconvenient when shots were fired on the outer-belt here in Columbus, or they surrounded a Biden/Harris campaign bus in Austin, Texas.

Are we headed to the downfall of the American democracy?  Are we so divided, that no winner will be accepted?

History

Historians spend a lifetime studying the past and trying to apply it to the present.  And to historians, there is no time in American history more dramatic than the years before the Civil War, leading up to the election of 1860.  The Supreme Court’s 1857 ham handed acceptance of slavery, the Dred Scott decision, made it seem that there was no legislative means to resolve the crisis.  The frustration with that helped lead to John Brown’s Raid on Harper’s Ferry in October of 1859, an armed insurrection against that government.  

Slavery was not only a moral issue; it was an economic one.  The immorality of owning slaves was rationalized by the need of the South to use slaves to support their cotton growing economy.  Abolitionism did not provide an answer for the Southern aristocracy, heavily indebted with their slaves as collateral for their loans.

The media of the time, newspapers, exploded on both sides of the issue of slavery.  John Brown, executed by the United States two months later, lit the fuse to the powder keg.  The polarization of the nation was completed in the election of 1860, where the Republican candidate, Lincoln, only won 40% of the popular vote but gained a majority of the Electoral College.  The runner-up in the popular vote, the “middle” candidate Stephen Douglas, got 30% of the popular vote, but only 12 Electoral votes.  Third place pro-slavery candidate John Breckenridge, had 18% of the popular vote, but carried many of the slave states for 72 Electoral vote.

We were a nation divided, politically, geographically, economically and socially.  

Rhymes

We are a divided nation today, driven by media that exacerbates our differences.  We have a President who does not have majority support, and a Court that seems to be weighing in on one side of political issues.  It’s not surprising that many see that “rhyming” with 1860, and resulting in the same outcome.

But it is not the same.  While there are many issues in our election today, the overwhelming crisis of COVID has changed it all.  We are now in a world where one side looks to science and fact to solve the problems, and one side does not.  It is not the “moral” question of slavery; it is a much clearer choice.

And economically there are effective solutions in science.  Controlling the COVID spread by simple tools, masks, social distancing and crowd control, will allow for much of the economy to open.  The alternative, what the President advocates we do, is to open without controlling the spread.  That will hamstring our economy for years to come.  

Slavery and COVID are not the same.  And the grievances that existed before COVID, the newly Trump empowered “victims” of the “left leaning” government, are real, but not so powerful to bring about a revolution.

Victims

Donald Trump has a fallback plan, the same one he had before the surprise 2016 election results.  “Trump TV” will be based on his victimhood, and he will continue to make a living on feeding the polarization of America.  But to be an effective victim, he must have an ultimate “wrong”. And that “wrong” will be the election of 2020, which he will forever claim was “stolen” from him by us “leftist” Democrats.

So be it.  But he doesn’t need violence to get that done.  He needs folks willing to watch his show, listen to his rhetoric, and put their money on “MAGA” hats.  He needs fellow “victims” to finance his upcoming loan calls, and violence won’t help that.  Trump needs their disaffection, not action.

For those looking for a “Kum-by-ya” moment at the Biden inauguration:  I wish it were so.  I hope that those reasonable folks who found an outlet through Trump, will be more American than Trumpian.  But more likely, our divisions will continue.  There’s too much money to be made by commentators on Fox, and the Trump family too.  

But we aren’t going to war.

Remain Calm, Then Break Glass

Election Day

So, after one thousand, four hundred, sixty-one days, we have finally reached another Presidential Election Day. I wasn’t at all sure that we’d make it through “THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION” (Hamilton reference – “the Adams Administration”). But here we are. Hard to imagine: we are in the middle of a global pandemic, snatching children from parents on the border, and young Black men are at higher risk of dying from homicide than any other cause (CDC). Joe Biden, after trying for thirty years, is finally getting his shot at the Presidency and Donald Trump is campaigning for a second term, and a second chance. A decade ago, no one would have believed it as a movie script.

Margin of Error

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long essay, Likely Voters, on polling and the Presidential election. I warned that ignoring the “margin of error” could lead to “shock and awe” on election night.  The most recent example is from Quinnipiac, a very reputable poll with a “B+” rating from “Five-Thirty Eight. Their most recent Ohio poll showed Joe Biden with 48% of the vote to Trump’s 43%.  Biden in the lead by 5% in Ohio seems more than extraordinary.  

But in the fine print, Quinnipiac notes there is a 2.9%  +/- margin of error in the poll.  So Biden could be as high as 50.9%, or as low as 45.1%.  Trump could be as high as 45.9%, even ahead of Biden, or as low as 40.1%. It definitely shows Ohio to be much closer than the “gut check – signs on the highway” Trump feeling you get.  And while I’d rather be Biden in the poll, don’t lose track of the margin of error.  We did in 2016.

I also wrote an essay, Electoral Mathlaying out the path to the Electoral votes that both Trump and Biden need to reach 270, the number to win the Presidency.  Assuming Biden wins all the states Hillary Clinton won, he starts with 233 Electoral Votes.  Trump has more states but with fewer votes, and he starts with 125.

Florida-Florida-Florida

Since Mr. Trump has the harder road to 270, there are key states that will tell us early what may happen.  Florida is already counting the early vote, and those numbers will be available soon after the polls close on Tuesday.  Since in many parts of Florida, 80% or more of the total is early vote, we will have a good idea of what’s going on there – early.  If we see that Biden is running ahead of Clinton’s 2016 totals, and that Trump is “under-performing” his 2016 effort, then it may well be Biden’s day.

So what are the “clues” to look for?  President Trump is polling well with the Cuban/American community, better than he did in 2016.  If that holds up, that might win the state.  On the other hand, Biden seems to be doing much better than Clinton did with older Americans.  If that stays true, particularly on Florida’s Gulf Coast, than it will impact more than just one state.  Many of those “snow-bird” Floridians came from the Midwest – Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  If they’re going for Biden, so might their “brethren” left in the cold north.

If Biden is at Clinton levels, then we know that Florida is going to be extremely close.  That doesn’t mean that Biden is going to lose, but it does mean that a “Biden Blue Wave” is probably not in the cards.  A close election in Florida probably portends a close election in the Midwest, and therefore the nation.  By the way, if Florida does go to Biden – it’s over.  Get a nightcap, in celebration or sadness depending on your view, and go to bed.

Early Tells

Ohio will also be a relatively early “call” on election night.  Again, if Biden is running well ahead of the Clinton number of 2016, even if he doesn’t win the state, it means that the rest of the Midwest is likely to “return to Blue”.  And if Biden wins Ohio (or Florida), it’s a solid indication that the election is over, and Biden is the next President.

Georgia may also be an early finisher.  Democrats have lusted after Georgia’s electoral votes for years, but it’s been since Bill Clinton in 1992 that the Peach State went Blue.  If Atlanta and the suburbs can overcome the rural parts of the state, it will be because of Stacey Abrams and her amazing efforts to counter Republican voter suppression.  And, if Georgia goes for Biden, it’s time for that nightcap. 

After Florida, Ohio and Georgia, the next results to watch carefully are from Texas.  Something’s changed in the Lone Star State.  More people have voted already, than voted in the entire 2016 election.  What that means is still unclear, but theoretically there is a large portion of Democrats voting who didn’t in 2016. If that’s true, it could be the culmination of the work Beto O’Rourke started in his Senate campaign two years ago. 

Texas turning “Blue” would be a total game changer.  The last time Texas did, I was twenty and working for the 1976 Carter campaign – so it’s been a little while.  Texas has the second biggest Electoral Vote in the nation, with 38.  Simple math – Biden wins the 233 expected, then Texas at 38, and he is the next President.  Have a nightcap – good or bad – and go to bed – it’s over.

Mail-In Votes

For the past four years we have been replaying the 2016 election. Clinton lost the “Blue Wall” states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Out of the thirteen million votes cast in those three, Trump won by a total of 77744 votes. That’s 0.6%. The polling indicates that Wisconsin and Michigan should be solid Biden states, though still statistically within the margins of error. And while Biden holds a steady lead in Pennsylvania too, the race there seems to be tightening.

If Florida, Texas, and Ohio all go for Trump then Biden is back to the 2016 “Blue Wall” defense.  And that’s when everything is going to get sticky.

All three states are relatively new to mail-in voting.  And in all three, the Republican Party has filed lawsuits in court against counting mail-in ballots that arrive late.  Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, the US Postal Service is failing to deliver on time almost half the time.  So if you are looking for the nightmare, a 2000 Bush/Gore Florida election scenario – look no farther than the Federal District Courts in those three states.  If the outcome comes down to the mail-in ballots, expect to see a “full court” (hah!) press by the Trump campaign to throw them out.

Expectations

So what are my expectations for Tuesday night?  As my family will tell you, I am an optimist when it comes to Democratic Presidential candidates.  I thought that Al Gore and Hillary Clinton would both be President.  And while they both did win the popular vote, we still had to live through the Bush and Trump Presidencies.  

I feel that there is a sea change occurring in American politics.  So to crawl out on a limb (which my Trumpian friends will surely take pleasure sawing off) I think we are going to see a Blue “Tsunami”.  Biden is going to win, big.  Perhaps Florida big, perhaps even Georgia, Arizona and Ohio big.  I’m struggling with Texas big, but maybe.  But I do think that Biden will drag the US Senate with him, getting Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Georgia (maybe two) and North Carolina.  I think the Dems will hold the Michigan seat, though I don’t see how to hang onto Doug Jones in Alabama. 

And don’t forget that there’s a fight for the Senate in Iowa, and Montana, and even Alaska as well. Oh and wouldn’t it be sweet if Harrison beat Graham in South Carolina. So a Senate that is now 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats could end up 57 Dems to 43 Republicans. Sorry Mitch, game over.

If you’re going to predict, why not go big? So vote if you haven’t, and get prepared for Tuesday night, and Wednesday morning, if you have. It’s almost “game day”, and you might as well enjoy the suspense. It’s popcorn, beer, antacids, and a final nightcap. That might end up being a “Bloody Mary” – sometime after dawn on Wednesday morning.

Competence, Character, and COVID

The Experiment

On Tuesday our nation will make a choice.  There are many reasons to vote FOR Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.  But the essence of the 2020 Presidential election is that we are holding a referendum on the four-year experiment called Donald Trump.

Like it or not, America embarked on this experiment in government with his election four years ago as President.  It was a near thing:  Trump lost the popular vote but won the Electoral vote.  In the Electoral College, less  than 1% of the popular vote in three states determined the outcome. Three states sealed his victory, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  There was no popular “mandate”.  Nevertheless, he became the President of the United States.

His election was based on the idea that he could run America “like a business”.  He projected an image of a dynamic entrepreneur, a billionaire maverick that led us to expect that he might do things differently. We hoped he would “cut to the chase” and get the job done.  We knew he would speak his mind, both publicly and in social media.  And we thought he would change the way “politics” was done here in America.

So, after four years of the experiment, lets talk about the results.

Competent Businessman

The single “positive” factor in the election of Donald Trump was his competency.  Surely a billionaire must be competent.  But we now know, that competency wasn’t a prerequisite for gaining what he says are his billions.  What has he done?  He wasn’t even able to fulfill his primary campaign promise and get rid of the Affordable Care Act.  He never offered an alternative, only the negative. There is no Trump Health Care Plan, just a constant rain of criticism for President Obama’s plan.  It was a key part of his candidacy – but four years later, he is still unable to get it done.

Yes there is more border wall between Mexico and the United States.  Three hundred miles of wall were built, though two hundred and ninety-five miles of that replaced already existing structures.  That’s five miles of new wall.  And, as we now know, Mexico didn’t pay for it.  In fact Congress didn’t pay for all of it either.  Much of the money was taken from other sources, including Federal Emergency Management money earmarked for national disasters, $155 million that was made unavailable for relief. (Politifact).

And the President definitely did create a tax cut, one that saved a little tax money for many, and a fortune for the very wealthy.  He left the government with an additional trillion dollars of debt, which was magnified by the needs of a nation now in pandemic.  The deficit has grown six trillion dollars under Trump’s “competent” leadership (Statista).

Ultimate Crisis

But the real test of any President is in crisis.  George W. Bush proved his strength after almost three thousand died in the attacks on 9-11, and while we might not agree with his decisions, they were made confidently and moved the nation.   Barack Obama had no choice but to demonstrate competence from the beginning of his Presidency, faced with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.  We are still enjoying the benefits of the Obama economic recovery today.

But when Donald Trump was faced with the pandemic, his first thoughts were not about the nation, but about getting re-elected.  The pandemic didn’t fit into his campaign strategy of running on a growing economy. 

So instead of “handling” the crisis, he first ignored it, then made sure that someone else (the Governors mostly) were “responsible”.  He took “all the credit” and “none of the blame” for what happened.  His own White House put out recommendations on what the states needed to do to reopen.  But when that science didn’t fit Trump’s need to get re-elected and the states couldn’t reach the recommendations, he undercut both the Governors’ messages and their authority.  Regardless of the virus, opening “the economy” was so much more important, especially to re-electing Donald Trump.

Since the virus wasn’t controlled, opening the economy just made things worse.  Just today, 80,000 Americans were diagnosed with COVID.  It’s not just about testing: hospitals all over the nation, from Fargo, North Dakota to El Paso, Texas, are full. And more sickness will ultimately result in more deaths.  About 1000 Americans are dying every day – a “9-11 level loss” every three days.  It’s been going on since April.  Over 233,000 Americans are dead, and their deaths are on Donald Trump.

Failure of Character

Incompetence has left us vulnerable to COVID.  But Donald Trump’s lack of character has set American against American. He has defended white supremacists, and ignored the legitimate concerns of minority Americans.  He claims to be the best “President for Blacks” since Abraham Lincoln.  But his economy, even before the pandemic, left minorities as vulnerable as they were before.  And since COVID, they are at greater threat from disease, and forced to risk their lives to work.  Being an “essential worker” has become for far too many a euphemism for being forced to risk infection.   

Mr. Trump accepted the immoral border plan, separating children from their parents.  And he takes no responsibility for the outcome of his plan: 545 children that cannot be reunited with their own mothers and fathers.  He led the United States to commit this atrocity. If any other nation acted that way, we would demand justice.

Donald Trump is lacking in character.  He is incompetent.  And COVID has magnified all of these flaws, placing them in full view for the American people.  He has failed the test, and the American people need to show him the door.  Sometime soon, when the vote count concludes, I believe they will.

Countdown

In the Day

It’s six days before Election Day.  That has a different meaning now than it had in the “old days” when I was working campaigns.  Back then, in the 1970’s, the vast majority of Americans went to the polls and voted on “that day”.  It was the “Norman Rockwell – Saturday Evening Post” cover type of voting, as communities lined up to cast their ballots.  

As a political campaigner, the plan was to “peak” in the weekend before the election.  The last few weeks, the staff motto was “We’ll sleep after the vote”, and in the 1976 Carter/Mondale campaign I remember sleeping on the office floor for about a week.  Going home meant a quick shower and a meal, then back to the effort.

It made sense.  Perhaps 90% of the votes weren’t actually cast until Election Day.  You could change peoples’ minds, and get your voters out to the polls all the way until Tuesday.  And it really did make a difference.

Get Out The Vote (GOTV) was a Democratic specialty.  We had giant computer lists of voters, each carefully marked to highlight those who chose the Democratic ballot in the primaries.  We’d then reach out and try to contact each of those voters:  some by phone, and many by physically knocking on their door.  We sent “flying squads” of volunteers, mostly high school kids, into Democratic neighborhoods on the weekend before Election Day, using the “walking lists” of Democratic voters to encourage folks to vote.

Half the Vote

I’m sure all of that is still happening today.  But it has a lot less impact than it did back in the “old days”.  As of today, over 70 million Americans, more than half of the total vote count from 2016, have already voted.  They’ve done it in-person (like my wife and I did) in early voting sessions.  Or they filled out an absentee ballot and dropped it off at their local Board of Elections.  Or, in many states, they received mail-in ballots, and dropped it back in the mail to return.  

Somehow, the Postal Service has hit “a snag” in certain major cities.  The Service strives for a 90% “on time” arrival date for first class mail, one to three days.  In certain key cities: Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee and Cleveland, the “on time” rate has fallen to near 50%.  That means that in this critical week for mail-in voting, almost half the mail in four critical electoral states is delayed.  And Republicans are going to Court to try to get ballots post-marked by Election Day but delivered after that day disqualified.  Guess which candidate the vast majority of voters in those “delayed” cities are voting for?  It sure isn’t Donald Trump.

It used to be that Republicans voted absentee, and Democrats lined up to vote on Election Day.  Now that script has flipped:  Democrats make up a much bigger part of the early vote.  And that’s why President Trump is making such a big deal about “the mail-in vote” and possible fraud.  It’s simple math:  if more Democrats vote before Election Day, then anything a Republican campaign can do to disqualify those votes, “wins”.  

Ethics and Lawyers

Ethical considerations don’t have very much to do with that decision-making.  President Trump himself said that if everyone voted by mail, no Republican could ever win again.  He wasn’t talking about “cheating”; he was simply stating the obvious.  The more people vote, the more likely it is that Democrats will win.  So making voting “hard” helps Republicans.  That fact alone ought to make you stop and consider what the Republican Party stands for.

American Thing

President Trump has “softened the ground” for Court action after the election. If the “regular” Election Day vote is counted first (and in most of the controversial states it is) and the “other” vote, mail-in, absentee, and early voting is counted last, then Trump might well be “winning” on Election night. If he could get the counting to stop right there, he could claim victory. So if there is a big early Trump lead in Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin, don’t be surprised to see the lawyers descend on those states to try to stop the “illegal” counting. It worked in Florida in 2000. (And just to add a little more controversy, Supreme Court Justices John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett worked as lawyers for the Bush effort in Florida that year edited after publication).

The “antidote” to all of that is an overwhelming victory.  Some states: notably Ohio, Florida, Texas, and Arizona will have the vast majority of their votes counted on Election Night anyway.  If Joe Biden wins three out of four of those states, the outcome will be clear.  But if it’s close, Trump/Clinton close or worse Bush/Gore close, then we are in for a long Election week or month, of counting, lawyers, and courtrooms.    

If you haven’t voted – do it.  It’s too late for mail-in voting.  If you’ve got a ballot, drop it off at your local Board of Elections.  Or, you can vote early there.  Or you can wait, and vote on Tuesday – the good old-fashioned way.  But make sure you plan to spend some time – it’s going to be the biggest election in American History.  However you chose to do it, one way or another, make your voice heard.  It’s the American thing to do.

The McConnell Standard

52 Star Flag

One Term Presidency

In 2008 Barack Obama became he first Black President in American history.  He was also the first Democrat to hold office in eight years, since the contested election of 2000.  That was when the United States Supreme Court, by a partisan five to four vote, ended the Florida count and make Republican George W. Bush President.  

After Obama’s election, Mitch McConnell, then Republican Minority Leader of the Senate, started with the one, singular goal.   He said:  “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president” (Politico).  John Boehner, then Republican House Minority Leader, had a similar view:  “We’re going to do everything — and I mean everything we can do — to kill it, stop it, slow it down, whatever we can” (Politico).

It was the “No Compromise” pledge:  that no matter what, the Republicans in Congress would do everything (“…I mean everything”) to stop the Democratic President from achieving legislative success.  McConnell and Boehner didn’t achieve their primary goal of keeping Obama from winning a second term. But they did manage to prevent legislation on issues like gun control, immigration reform, and climate change.  

There is a reason that the Affordable Care Act was the singular legislative highlight of the Obama Presidency.  The Democrats spent their entire legislative “power” to get it passed. That effort ultimately cost them control of both Houses of Congress.  It’s also why the Trump Administration has spent so much political capital trying to rescind “Obamacare”.

Who Ends It

There are long running arguments about “who started the fight”.  Republicans claim that then Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid “started it”. He changed the Senate rules to allow for a simple majority to pass lower level Federal judges.  This was because the McConnell-led minority filibustered most of the Obama appointees, trying to hold the seats open.  Democrats retort that the original “hard ball” began in the Florida recount of 2000.

Since Donald Trump became President, the Republican majority has expanded the “simple majority” rule to include Supreme Court Justices.

The election of 2020 is less than a week away.  Should Democrats win the House, the Senate, and the Presidency, there will be intense pressure for “paybacks”. That is particularly in response to Monday’s Barrett confirmation to the Supreme Court.  As Mitch McConnell said in his speech prior to the vote , all the things the Republicans did were within the rules of the Senate, and the Constitution. So that’s the new “McConnell Standard”, the “low bar” established.  Should Democrats regain majorities in both Houses and the Presidency, they only have to clear that. There is no reason to reach for any older “norm” of political civility.

The McConnell Republicans appointed almost twenty-five percent of the Federal judiciary in the past three and a half years. That includes three seats on the Supreme Court.   Now a brand of conservative Republican called “Originalism” is firmly entrenched in the Courts for a generation.  

Assuming the “gloves are off”, what options do Democrats have to respond to twenty years of obstructionism and “hard ball”?

The Courts

The Constitution establishes the Supreme Court, and that judges serve lifetime terms as long as they maintain “good behavior”.  But the Congress has the ability to establish how many judgeships exist, both at the Supreme Court and lower Court levels.  One response to the McConnell “court packing” would be a “Judicial Reform Act of 2021”.  This act could create additional Justices on the Supreme Court, raising the number from nine to thirteen.  Then a Democratic President could appoint four Justices to the Court right away, changing the balance. Now the vote stands at six “originalists” to three. It would become to six “originalists” to seven. 

It’s within the Congressional “rules” to do so, and also a power granted by the Constitution to the Congress.  The Congress could also create additional Appellate and District Court judgeships, in order to “dilute” the power of the Trump appointees.

The Filibuster

The Senate has always been the “debating society” of the United States government.  That “norm” was enshrined in the filibuster, the ability of any Senator to speak for any length of time, stopping all Senate business.  Originally it required sixty-seven votes for cloture, the parliamentary term for ending a filibuster.  Then the number was reduced to sixty.  Today the mere threat of a filibuster forces a “cloture vote” with a sixty-vote super-majority.  The actual “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” talk until you drop filibuster almost never occurs.  By “gentlemen’s agreement” the mere threat stops legislation unless a cloture vote can be passed.

But the days of “gentlemen’s agreements” are over.  The Senate should acknowledge that Senators can have their “say”, but should recognize that a majority of the Senate shouldn’t give their power away to the few.  The filibuster should be abolished, and the Senate should operate like any other legislative body, with a majority rule.

That will allow for the passage of legislation for the Democratic program beyond just the Judiciary.  The pressing issues in American life:  immigration reform, gun control, climate change, and voter protection: all demand action over the “will” of the minority.

The Senate

In addition there are two “wrongs” that need to be corrected.  The first “wrong” is the over 700,000 American citizens in the District of Columbia who are denied representation in the Congress.  The District should immediately be made a state, bigger in population than both Vermont and Wyoming. The “Federal Triangle” would remain as the national capital.  This meets Constitutional muster, and would create one new House seat, and two new Senate seats. Democrats would very likely hold all of those.  That’s just icing on the cake.

The second “wrong” is the over three million Americans who live in Puerto Rico.  Their status as a US “Commonwealth” has left them at a loss when it comes to disaster relief and Federal aid, and also without Congressional representation.  On the ballot next week in Puerto Rico is a request for admission to statehood.  

Should it pass, the Congress should consider accepting Puerto Rico as the fifty-second state (DC the fifty-first).  It would be thirty-first in population, ahead of twenty-one others.  That would mean four new Congressmen and two more Senators.  And while the political parties in Puerto Rico are aligned around the question of statehood, it is likely that their representatives will caucus with the Democratic Party in Congress.

That’s five new House members and four new Senate members, all likely Democrats.  And it all fits the “McConnell Standard”.  

Gloves Off

Joe Biden is a traditionalist, and is likely to resist this kind of Democratic “hard ball”.  But that’s the game were playing now.  The reserved and gentlemanly Senate where he served honorably for thirty years is trashed.  And like a fight in the hallways of a school, it really doesn’t matter who started it.  “It’s Bounce or be Bounced” now; and it’s time for Democrats to take their “gentleman’s white gloves” off and starting fighting. They should strive to follow the “McConnell Standard”, and do everything within “the rules” and the Constitution to exercise their authority. 

It’s not only the way to gain “power”, but it’s the right thing to do. Passing legislation, solving problems, giving representation to American citizens, and making the Courts represent the People, all are necessary and proper. Our government has been stymied for far too long.

And besides: it’s what the Republicans would do.

History Rhymes

Similarities

So it’s Tuesday, exactly one week before the Presidential Election of 2020.  It’s hard to imagine:  four years since the last election.  The shock and disappointment of November 2016 seems so close.  But here we are, days away from what is clearly a pivotal moment in American history.

There’s an old Mark Twain expression: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.  The historic and political themes in American life come back, focused in different ways, but similar in their content.  The election we face in the next few days is no different.

I was twelve years old in the last election that was nearly as divisive.  In 1968 there was one trauma after another, and it wasn’t much of a surprise that Nixon won.  We suffered the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy and then the debacle of the Democratic Convention in Chicago (Now on Netflix – The Trial of the Chicago 7). The eventual Democratic nominee Vice President Hubert Humphrey was a “pro-war” (Vietnam) Democrat and there really didn’t seem to be much difference between his policies and Nixon’s.  Nixon squeaked into the White House.  We didn’t know what would happen.

I was sitting in my seventh grade math class (second row from the window, two seats from the front) when the announcement came over the PA system. (By the way, the election results were so close it took until the next day to announce the winner).  The halls of Van Buren Junior High School resounded with cheers.  Kettering, Ohio, a Dayton suburb, was Nixon country.  I put my head down on my desk.  Four years seemed like an eternity.

Secret Plan

We didn’t know that Nixon’s “secret peace plan” was, in today’s parlance, to “double-down” on Vietnam.  Within months we were expanding the war, across borders into Laos and Cambodia.  It turned out that Nixon’s “ peace plan” was to fight the war to the bitter end.

It didn’t work, and the war still raged four years later as the Democratic Party nominated a “peace” candidate, Senator George McGovern.  McGovern was no pacifist; he was a World War II bomber pilot.  But the “moment” where Americans were ready to end the war was over, lost in the social upheaval of the protests, civil unrest and the “tune in, turn on and drop out” generation.  Nixon proclaimed his “Law and Order” candidacy, and somehow painted McGovern’s South Dakota pragmatism as “the radical left”. Nixon won an overwhelming victory.

That was 1972.  I was now sixteen, a junior at Wyoming High School near Cincinnati.  I struggled to understand how the nation could survive “Four More Years” of Richard Nixon.  It wasn’t just about the war:  it was an entire attitude. The “silent majority” gave license to suppress many of our citizens.  It seemed the nation I loved had just “been fooled again” (couldn’t miss the Who reference)

But it wasn’t four more years.  Nixon was gone before I left for college in the summer of 1974.  President Gerald Ford proclaimed, “Our long national nightmare is over” referring to Watergate, and the last troops left Vietnam in 1975.  But I would be a twenty-year old junior staffer for the Carter/Mondale campaign in 1976 before I actually felt we overcame the failures of 1968, and elected Democrat Carter as President.  

Differences

So here we are today, on the cusp of 2020.  It’s not 1968:  there is a clear difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.  No one can claim they are “the same” in the way we looked at Nixon and Humphrey.  And the reality was, Humphrey would have ended the war sooner, once he was out of the shadow of Lyndon Johnson.  So there was a difference then too.

And it’s not 1972 either.  Try as he might, Donald Trump has not been able to brand Joe Biden, the moderate from Delaware, as a “radical” leftist.  Not only do the real “leftists” know better, but so does the rest of the nation.  Democrats had that choice, and Bernie wasn’t nominated.  Joe Biden is “oil on the waters” (though he’ll “transition away from oil”), a calming force in our 2020 world of upheaval.   It’s what I think America wants, the Buddhist “Middle Path” of American political ideology.  I guess we’ll see.

Our War Today

It wasn’t just the Vietnam War that drove the 1968 election; it was the demands for social change.  The Chicago Seven marched against Vietnam, but they echoed the tactics of the Civil Rights movement.  Martin Luther King died protesting the need for Black people to be treated as economic as well as political equals.  It’s not so different:  today Black Live Matters demands that people of color be seen as equal in the eyes of law enforcement, as well as the supposedly “blind folded” legal process.

So while COVID is our “Vietnam” and the central issue of our time, we should not ignore all of the other issues that would be at the front were it not for the pandemic.  Our nation was divided long before the virus was introduced.  The social and racial infections were already here.

Our political leaders found the courage to stand up and stop Richard Nixon in 1974.  But today’s leaders have already proven they don’t have that same fortitude to stand up to Donald Trump’s acknowledged illegalities.  So it’s up to us, the voters, to do what our elected leaders could not.  We will change the course of American history next week, one way or another.  I believe in the courage and wisdom of the American voter. For the sake of the nation, let’s hope I’m right.

The Example

Play Hurt

I was an athlete for twelve years, and a coach for forty.  “Playing hurt” was the athletic tradition for as long as I was involved.  The stories became school legends. There was the wrestler who came off the mat with a finger out of joint, demanding someone “pull it” back into place so he could continue the match.  There was the football player who turned up in the wrong team huddle during the game after taking a shot to the head.  And then there was the pole vaulter who looked awesome in warmups, but an hour later couldn’t run.  His Mom shot his fractured foot full of numbing Lidocaine, and at wore off (no, I didn’t know). 

In the world of athletics we hold those stories up as examples of dedication and even heroism.  We sometimes question the outcome:  the wrestler won, but they laughed at the football player, and the pole vaulter didn’t clear his starting height.  But we always praised the effort.  They “wanted it” more, and were willing to sacrifice.

It’s an American athletic “ethos”.  Play hurt. Be dedicated. Don’t be a “quitter”.

COVID Age

So what happens in the “COVID age”?  In the “before time” if you had a sore throat, or felt lousy, you still went to practice, still played.  That was hammered into you from youth sports:  your team needed you to be there, to make it happen.  But now you can feel perfectly fine, but your seat assignment in history class means that you are “out” for two weeks, on quarantine for COVID.  The unintended result: it pressures everyone to follow a “code of silence”.  

In amateur sports and a high school world without real testing, I’m sure it’s happening.  And in an environment where politics determines belief in the reality of COVID, it’s easy for athletes and parents to justify taking the step of trying to ignore the disease. 

Show the Way

So it’s more than important that our national leaders present a good example to the public.  It’s not just Joe Biden emphasizing wearing a mask.  The headline in the right wing social media is “No one shows up for Biden Rally!!!”  But Biden isn’t having rallies. He isn’t putting people together to create “super-spreader” events.  That’s Trump’s strategy.  

In fact, the President has been the “example” of the old athletic ethos “playing hurt”.  He was diagnosed with COVID, and then made a “miraculous” recovery.  Within days, far too few days according to the Centers for Disease Control, he was back out on the campaign trail, maskless, drawing “his people” together in the biggest public events held in some states since March.

And now, Marc Short, the Vice President’s Chief of Staff has been diagnosed with COVID.  Short was for a long time the most “reasonable” member of the Trump team, the one who seemed to speak logically when others like Kelly Ann Conway were talking “alternate facts”.   Then he moved out of the direct “Trump” lineup, and took the “Chief” job with the Vice President, a job requiring frequent close personal contact with Mike Pence.

So Short has COVID.  Pence, according to the CDC rules on personal contact, should quarantine for fourteen days.  But, like that kid on the team in high school, Pence is ignoring that regulation.  He’s staying out on the campaign trail, declaring his politicking (not his job as Vice President) an “essential activity” that requires him to risk infecting – others. 

Contrast

Former Trump Homeland Security and Terrorism Advisor Tom Bossert describes the national COVID response with, “This is a team sport”.  If the “team” all gets on the same simple page: masks, social distancing, reducing contact; we can “win” by reducing the spread of COVID.  But the Trump campaign is playing only for their own “team”.  They are playing to win the election, regardless of the consequences to the American public.

And more importantly, Trump, and now Vice President Pence, are setting “glaring” examples of what NOT to do in a global pandemic.  When Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris was similarly exposed to COVID – she came “off” the campaign trail.   When Joe Biden walks onto the debate stage, he’s wearing a mask.   And finally, when former President Barack Obama “rallied” for Biden, it was in a parking lot with spectators separated into their own vehicles.  Instead of cheers, there were the honks of car horns.

So what are the President and Vice President saying to that running back who “can’t smell the coffee” in the morning (a sure sign of COVID infection)?  Get out there and “play hurt”, don’t tell your parents or coaches what’s going on.  Do it for your “team”, because it’s more important than slowing the pandemic’s spread.  

It’s not only what our national leaders say:  it’s what they do.

So Little Time

Unreachables

Five hundred forty-five children, separated from their parents at the border, cannot be reunited with their parents. It wasn’t in the middle of some natural disaster, and the parents didn’t commit some murderous act. No, by intentional policy of the Government of the United States, children were taken from parents. They committed the misdemeanor offense of crossing a “line in the sand”, and the Government failed to maintain adequate records to put them back together. Some were babies.

They are now called the “unreachables”.  The children went into the “system”, from Customs and Border Control in the Department of Homeland Security, to the Office of Refugee Resettlement in the Department of Health and Human Services. They were scattered throughout the nation.  Meanwhile the adults were deported to their home countries.  There was no tracking process to maintain a connection between the two, and those kids were simply lost to their parents.  

Policy Debate

There was a debate in the Trump Administration about the policy, the plan to “deter” migrants by taking their kids when they arrived in the US.  The “hard-ass” Trump appointees thought it would scare migrants into not trying to get here.  But the pros in the “deep state” that dealt with illegal immigration for year had a real understanding of the problem.  Conditions were so bad in Central America that whatever the “deterrence” offered by US Border Control couldn’t hold a candle to the gang violence and economic ruin there.

And the “pros” also warned that their system would be overwhelmed with the children.  Before it even happened, they said we would “lose” kids.  But the Administration went ahead with their plan, and for five hundred and forty-five kids, destroyed their lives.

If any other country did this, Americans would rise up in “righteous anger” over the crimes against these children.  But this is not some “war crime” committed in a far away desert or jungle. It happened in American towns like McAllen, Texas and Nogales, Arizona.  It’s happened under the “Stars and Stripes” in the “land of the free and the home of the brave”.  And we aren’t completely sure it’s not happening now.  We don’t seem very brave.  

Outrage

There are so many outrages committed by the Trump Administration that it’s hard to keep track of them all. He started his campaign for the Presidency by blaming “Mexicans” as rapists and drug dealers. His first days in office he tried to ban a religion from entering the United States, the “Muslim Ban”. And for the last four years the President has appealed to our worst fears, blaming “brown people” for a whole variety of “wrongs”. Trump incites and encourages the evil strain in America: from “fine people on both sides” at Charlottesville, to telling the “Proud Boys” to “stand back and stand by”, to pretending his doesn’t know what QAnon is.

But for these five hundred and forty-five children and thousands more, the Trump Administration has in the name of the United States, ripped them from their parents.  It doesn’t get any uglier than that.

Character

When they say that this election is about “character”, it’s not just about whether the President lies (over 20,000 times according to the Washington Post) or hides his taxes.  It’s not just about a President who constantly denigrates anyone who criticizes him, but seems to take particular pleasure in attacking women, from Nancy Pelosi to Leslie Stahl.  It’s not even about a man who says wearing facemasks will help control the pandemic then ridicules those who actually wear them.  

No this is the true “character” issue.  Donald Trump leads a Presidency that has no moral compass.  They are willing to do literally anything to pursue their policy goals.  They ignored COVID.  His White House has “cozied” up to the worst dictators in the world, from Putin to Erdogan to Duterte to Kim.  And they sat around a table and chose to drag innocent children out of the arms of their parents.  It was a vote, only Homeland Security Secretary Kirstin Neilsen, who was well aware of the consequences, voted no.  But the rest pressured her to change her decision.  

There have been so many mistakes, and there is so little time to correct them.

Exceptionalism

Americans are taught from an early age that our founding story, from heroic immigration to the Revolution, is exceptional. We were raised on Ronald Reagan’s “shining city on a hill” speech: the United States as the example of democracy to the world. We acknowledged the failures in our past, from slavery to internment camps, but vowed to be better in our present and future.

But there is nothing “exceptional” about tearing children from their parents’ arms. It is cruel, barbaric, and desperate. It represents the worst of us, not our better angels. And that is decision we need to make in the next two weeks. Americans need to decide what kind of “character” we want in the leader of our nation. More importantly we need to decide what kind of character we have ourselves.

Likely Voters

I watched the debate last night. It looked like a Presidential debate – but the volume of the President’s falsehoods left me frustrated and angered. From a political standpoint Trump’s “new” behavior was better. But Joe Biden did better as well, able to actually lay out his ideas for America. Scorecard: Biden held his own, and Trump just spoke to the base – Biden wins.

Voodoo

As you might imagine, I become an “election geek” during Presidential contests.  That’s been true since Mom pinned a Kennedy button on my sweater in 1960.  I followed campaigns from “All the Way with LBJ” to my boss Jimmy Carter’s “Why Not the Best”, to Reagan’s “Let’s Make America Great Again”, to John Kerry’s “Let America be America” (or Bartlet be Bartlet) to Obama’s “Yes We Can”.

So I spend a lot of time with polls.  Getting a read on what American voters intend to do is important.  But there’s always a caveat, a statement of caution:  what about 2016?  The pollsters seemed to be so wrong then?  How can we trust their numbers now?

Well there are a couple of answers to that concern.  First, polling is science not voodoo. Pollsters take the opinion of a limited number of people, and project that into a conclusion on what everyone is thinking.  So how that limited number, the sample, is selected, will control the accuracy of the data that ultimately comes out.

Historic Mistake

There’s a famous picture of a smiling Harry Truman holding up the front page of the Chicago Tribune the day after the 1948 election.  The headline reads “Dewey Defeats Truman”.  Tom Dewey, the Governor of New York, was the Republican candidate for President, and as is apparent from Truman’s beaming smile, Dewey did not win. 

So what happened?  The Tribune did a last minute telephone poll that showed an overwhelming move by voters to the Dewey camp.  They were so confident in the result that they set the headline for Wednesday morning, and went to bed.  

The key to the poll’s failure was in the sample.  It was 1948, and not every American household had their own phone.  In fact, even when I moved to Pataskala thirty years later, there were still “party lines” where several households shared a phone line (I know, it sounds like Mayberry in the Andy Griffith Show).  So the sample that the Tribune spoke to was slanted towards people who could afford to own their personal phone line.  And that’s exactly the kind of folks that voted Republican.  It shouldn’t be a surprise that they were voting for Dewey.  But they weren’t a representative sample.

Sampling is critical.  And some of the sampling in 2016 was based on the Obama 2012 and 2008 election turnout.  Not surprisingly, Hillary Clinton didn’t generate the same kind of excitement as the first Black President did, and didn’t get the same kind of turnout, particularly in minority communities.  It wasn’t that she didn’t win those communities; she did, overwhelmingly.  But the numbers of people didn’t come to the polls.  Think about Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia: the lower turnout there changed the outcome of those state elections, and who ultimately became President.

Snapshot

Polls in 2016, like the current polling for Biden today, showed a strong Clinton lead through early October.  But that month in 2016 was tumultuous to say the least.  There was the Access Hollywood video, followed immediately by the Podesta email dump by Wikileaks, then the Comey letter reopening the Clinton email investigation, followed by Comey closing the investigation again.  

While we were distracted, the polls significantly narrowed.  And that brings us to the second point.  Polls are a snapshot of how people feel at that moment.  They don’t signify what they believed yesterday, or what they are likely to do tomorrow.  In the unstable political environment of October 2016, things changed.

Democrats remember a summer and fall when Hillary had a seemingly insurmountable lead.  Even the Trump campaign seemed resigned to defeat.  But all of the October craziness tightened the race.  What would have been an electoral landslide for Clinton in the first week of October (that snapshot) dwindled to a marginal lead in November.  Democrats then, and now, remembered the polling of a month or even week before.  But the snapshot changed.

Margins

Marginal is a significant word in polling.  Pollsters take maybe 1000 responses, and extrapolate the results over millions of voters.  There is always some room for mistakes, called the “margin of error”.  When we saw Clinton with 46% to 43% for Trump with a margin of error of 3.5%, it meant that Clinton wasn’t really ahead of Trump.  Within that margin Trump could be ahead of Clinton by ½ a percent or more.  

And that’s where we were when the actual snapshot was taken and we held the election.  Almost all of the polls except for the “national polls” were inside the margin.  And Trump won by a razor thin margin in the states he had to take:  Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  By the way, the “national polls” were right – Hillary won the national popular vote.

Sample

So who gets polled is critical to the accuracy of the data.  The Rasmussen poll, for example, has been slanted towards Trump for the past five years.  It’s not because Rasmussen is a “Trumpster” (though he is), it’s that the way he selects the sample favors Trump.  So when you see Rasmussen polls favoring Biden (Arizona – Biden 48%, Trump 46% 3.5% margin of error) then you know that Biden is doing well under the “worst” polling conditions. 

Generally polls look at three major variables:  likely voters, registered voters, and adults of voting age.  “Adults of voting age” is the least important.  Only twenty-one states have “same day” voter registration, where you can register and vote on the same day.  The rest close registration early, so in those states, measuring unregistered adults is meaningless.  And even in the “same day” states, folks who haven’t already registered are less likely to actually vote.

Registered voters seems like a “good” sample.  79% of adults of voting age are registered to vote.  But in the 2016 election only 58% of eligible adults actually voted.  That means that 20% of voters who were registered still didn’t vote.  Even though a person is registered to vote, there still a one in five chance that they won’t.  And that’s the “turnout” question that Democrats and Republicans debate.  “IF” Hillary had a better turnout, she would have won.  “IF” Biden can motivate his “base” he will win.

And finally there’s the “likely voter”, the registered voter who consistently votes in election.  And that’s the sample that most pollsters like to survey. 

Political Geeks

Want to join in the “geekdom” of poll watching?  Nate Silver was one of the few who predicted a Trump victory in the last few weeks of 2016.  His website, Five-Thirty Eight, not only lists the latest polls, but rates their quality. “A” and “B” polls are regarded as high quality, “C” and “D” polls not so much.  If you want to quote polling, look for those “high quality” polls (sounds like Bobby Boucher from The Water Boy).

And if you want more of a cross section of polling, check out Real Clear PoliticsWhile the editorial content slants conservative, their polling averages are right on.  Like most general elections, it’s likely the polls will narrow as Election Day approaches.   The “undecided” will make their choice, and this year, fully a third of the US vote will be cast before we even get to November 3rd.  Their votes, like mine, are in.

As we used to say after the last hard track workout, “the hay is in the barn” for early voters.  And for the rest of you:  get “your hay in the barn” (go and vote) then watch the polls.   Then, in the days and probably weeks after November 3rd, we can sweat out the actual count.

Make a New Plan

You just slip out the back, Jack, Make a new plan, Stan
You don’t need to be coy, Roy, Just get yourself free
Hop on the bus, Gus You don’t need to discuss much
Just drop off the key, Lee.  And get yourself free
   

Fifty Ways to Leave Your Lover – Paul Simon

Retired

Life can get surprisingly busy when you’re retired.  What sounds like an almost unlimited amount of time, soon narrows to a few short hours. In those few hours, Jenn and I need to “make a new plan, Stan” – we need to figure out when we are going to vote.

I haven’t missed an election in my life, since I first became eligible for the November election of 1974.  This is my life, a political junkie.  I drove from Granville to vote in Cincinnati when I was an undergraduate, and from Cincinnati to vote in Pataskala when I was in law school.  When I was working, I was one of the first ten in line as the polls opened at the old Pataskala Fire Station, hanging out with a cup of coffee and the “6:15-am bunch” in the cold.

More recently I’ve dodged the wait and Jenn and I vote around 10:30 am with our fellow retirees.  And we have voted absentee a couple of times.  But this year feels different; we need to vote “in person”.  And I just can’t let it all come down to a single Election Day chance.  What if the car breaks down, or one of us gets COVID, or there’s a “dog emergency”?  We need to get this done, in person, and soon.  We need to make a new plan – Stan.

Gone to the Dogs

We have a recent addition to our canine family.  There was already the “big two rescues”:  Buddy, our eight year-old shepherd/border collie mix, and Atticus, the wild man three year-old Yellow Lab.  And then we decided to foster Keelie, a skinny one year-old female, at forty-five pounds a mix of Rottweiler and something else.  The foster “failed:”  she was too good and fit in too well.  She became the “sister” Buddy and Atticus never had and the third dog I didn’t think I wanted.  I was wrong. 

But that’s not the new addition.  Now we are rehabbing two year-old Louisiana, better known as Lou.  He’s a shepherd/Dane mix and was a rescue from the parking lot of the Louisiana State University Vet Clinic that Jenn and a couple of her Lost Pet Recovery (LPR) mates drove through the night to recover. They knew he had two broken legs, but only later discovered a broken hip as well.  Thanks to LPR he’s now surgically repaired, and hanging out in Jenn’s office on the mend.  We haven’t allowed him to meet the other three yet (they can be overwhelming) but he knows they are there, and everyone desperately wants a sniff and to say “hello”.

Lou requires a lot of attention.  There are drugs for pain, and separation anxiety from abandonment.  He’s a sweet guy (“Sweet Louisiana” – has a ring to it).  He wants to play and snuggle, but he’s still fragile from all of the damage and the surgeries.  Jenn can’t go too far, and when she does I’m only a slightly above average substitute. 

The Plan 

Jenn and I want to vote together.  This is the most important vote of our lives, something we want to share – just as we shared the shock of November 2016, and will sweat out the 2020 returns in a couple of weeks.  So balancing Lou, the rest of the crew, my growing addiction to pounding out 1000 words each morning, workouts, cross country meets and all the rest of life has somehow gotten complicated.

So, Stan (whoever Stan was) here’s our new plan.

Lou’s got a vet appointment in Dublin, Ohio at 8:30 am today.  Travelling with him, it’s best to have both of us, one to drive, one to snuggle with Lou.  The rest of the gang will be happy to go back to sleep when we leave at 7:30 am.  So it’s over to Dublin and hang out while they check out Lou’s progress – then head to Newark and vote in person at the Board of Elections downtown.

American Duty

We get it done:  no worry about the mail, or disaster on Election Day.  And the vote is actually “cast” – so no worries about when it gets counted.  Our two votes matter, and timing matters too in our time when we don’t know what “shenanigans” the Trump campaign or others may pull.  Police are worrying about armed Trump supporters in the parking lots of polling places.  Everyone should be worried about attempts to hack into our electoral process.  Russia did it in 2016, there’s no reason to believe they won’t try again in 2020. There is so much that can happen to disrupt the system.  

So I’ll hang out in the truck with Lou while Jenn goes and casts her ballot, then she’ll do the same for me.  And then, no matter what else happens in the next two weeks, we have fulfilled that most important duty for Americans.  We voiced our decision.  We took a stand. And we chose our future.  We voted.

That’s the new plan, Stan.

Post Script

I started Trump World in February of 2017.  It was going to be a once a week essay to help explain how to “Resist” the Trump Administration.  It’s become a six-day a week project, often writing about the events of the day and interpreting what comes next, but sometimes telling stories of family, or school, or life.  Anyway – today’s essay is number 900:  “Who would’ve thunk it”.  

Penny Tip

How Much?

Back in the “before times” when we went out to dinner at restaurants, my wife and I always had discussions about how much to tip the servers.  I was pretty much a twenty-percent guy unless something extraordinary happened.  It seemed fair, and easy to figure:  move the decimal and double the amount.  No calculators needed.

My wife worked in the food service industry at one point in her life.  So she’d lobby for a bigger tip almost every time, and occasionally throw in extra no matter what I considered fair.  It was never worth too much discussion. We both realized that people worked hard so we could enjoy our meal, and more tip was better.

And when I coached I often had my athletes out to dinner. I made sure to discuss with them what an appropriate tip would be.  After the meal, I’d glance around the table.  If I saw that the server was shorted, I made sure to make up for my skimpy tipping charges.

Bad Service

But there were those rare times when things were awful.  The service, food, or the server: what should we do about the tip in that kind of situation?  If you didn’t leave a tip at all, then there was always the question, “did the customer forget?”  Some folks solve that problem by leaving the most insulting tip of all: one penny.  That way, the server knew the service was intolerable.  

It’s not how I would do it.  The manager and I would have already had a discussion before I reached the “penny tip” stage – waiting until the end is far too passive/aggressive.  Sitting through an entire meal frustrated and angry without complaint was not my style.  And as I got older, I got more than willing to voice my criticisms.  I guess I’ve become that guy (I think it was my Dad).

COVID Relief

The COVID pandemic created one of the worst economic crises in American history.  In spite of what the President continues to say, there are still over 11 million Americans who have not gone back to work.  And the number suffering is even greater, as restaurants try to survive at 50% occupancy, and millions have “left” the workforce and stopped looking for employment.  

The Congressional reaction to the pandemic in April was reasonable.  Money was put into the industries that were obviously damaged:  transportation, entertainment, and education to name a few.  Unemployment, usually half of what employment paid at best, was supplemented by a $600/week stipend.  And most Americans got a $1200 “tax refund” that wasn’t going to impact 2020 taxes.  It was all the right things to mitigate the damages done by a nation slowed to a crawl by pandemic control efforts.

But in May, it became clear that “the economy” was the only way that Republicans could win the November election.  The United States “had” to recover, and the only way was to force states to “re-open”, despite the risk of spreading the COVID-19 virus.  So Republican Governors opened their states, and Democratic Governors and Mayors were faced with Federal pressure to open, “or else”. 

Getting folks to go back to work in a pandemic required them to face financial pressure.  If they didn’t have other alternatives, any protective relief packages, then most would find a way to make money, COVID or no.  So the United States Senate, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, decided that there was no need for additional COVID relief. They adjourned.

The Democratic Plan

Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi and the Democratic House of Representatives passed a massive COVID relief package.  The original plan was over $3 Trillion in spending.  That included more PPP (payroll protection plan), extended unemployment supplements, massive aid to public education institutions for COVID protection and testing and another “tax rebate”.  The Democratic plan was to spend enough to keep stimulating the economy, while making it safer for the “essential workers”, the ones working because they had to, pandemic or not.

McConnell found that at least twenty Republican Senators refused to negotiate any COVID relief at all.  That left him needing Senate Democrats to get any kind of relief passed.  Instead of negotiating with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer over the House passed package already on his desk, McConnell refused to even discuss the issue.  He passed the negotiating over to the White House.  Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Speaker Pelosi were left to find some solution, while McConnell reserved the right to “veto” any agreement they reached.

The summer dragged on, with no COVID-relief in sight.  Pelosi, in order to further the process, passed a slimmed down $2.4 Trillion package.  But the Senate still failed to take any action.  When the Senate returned in September, McConnell’s sole focus was getting the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat filled.  That process has moved along at an extremely fast pace, with Judge Amy Coney Barrett likely to be approved by a narrow margin next week.  But as far as COVID-relief is concerned, the Senate remained silent.

Skinny Relief

Tuesday, two weeks before the election, Senator McConnell put a $500 Billion package on the Senate floor for consideration. He’s forced a vote “for the record”. Republicans can vote for this “skinny bill” and go home to close their campaigns. They can claim that “they wanted relief”. Democrats, knowing that it’s not enough, will have to choose. Either vote down the “skinny bill” and face charges of not caring about “common people”, or vote for a bill that simply isn’t good enough.

Leader McConnell and the Senate Republicans are offering a “penny tip”. They are making sure we know that they considered COVID-relief, but really aren’t interested in doing much about it. McConnell knows that $500 billion isn’t enough, and not likely to pass the House of Representatives anyway. It’s just another insult to the people who are really serving this country – going out in a pandemic world to do their job.

Senate Democrats and Speaker Pelosi are responding to McConnell’s offer.

Keep the penny.

Electoral Math

And the Winner Is

Democrat Hillary Clinton won the Presidential Election of 2016 with 48.2% of the vote.  Donald Trump came in second almost three million votes behind Clinton, with 46.1% of the vote.  Just like Algebra 2 class back in high school, at least for me, the math of United States Presidential elections sometimes doesn’t make sense.  Why:  because as we all are very much aware, Hillary Clinton has not been the President of the United States for the past three and a half years.  

Donald Trump did not win the popular vote, but he was able to amass a majority of the Electoral vote, winning 304 Electoral votes to Clinton’s 227. (For those government geeks like me, who recognize that those numbers are seven short of the 538 total Electoral votes, seven electors were “faithless” and didn’t vote for either one). Without starting an “Electoral College” debate, this is how we elect the President now. So like it or not, this isn’t a national election. The Presidential Election of 2020 is actually fifty-one separate state elections for the number of Electors that state is allotted.

Electoral College

Each state is allocated one Elector (vote) for each Member of the House of Representatives of the state, and one for each Senator (two for each state).  The minimum a state could have would be three electoral votes (that is what the District of Columbia is also given).  The largest is fifty-five, California.  It all totals to 538 Electoral votes, so a tie would be 269. It takes 270 wins the Presidency.

Donald Trump didn’t need to win the popular vote.  He needed to win 270 Electoral Votes, and he did that and more.  To win the Presidency then, Joe Biden needs to win 270 or more Electoral votes, not just more popular votes.  

By the way, that’s why you don’t see Biden campaigning in California or New York.  Both of those states are going to go to the Democrat, no matter what. “Running up” the vote in a state does the Presidential candidate no direct good, though it might help elect other state candidates there.  The Presidential candidate just has to win the popular vote by the slimmest margin, to get “all” the Electoral votes.

And since it’s like Algebra, there are two exceptions.  Maine and Nebraska allow their Congressional Districts to individually choose electors.  So if the Omaha Congressional District votes for Biden, he will get that one electoral vote.  The rest of Nebraska is likely to be overwhelmingly for Trump, so he would win the other two Congressional Districts, and by winning the entire state count, the two “Senate” electors.  

So “endeth” the Electoral College 101 lesson.  Thanks for coming to class.

Sure Things

As noted above, there are some states that are going to go “Red” or “Blue” for sure.  Those are the states where you won’t see a lot of Presidential TV commercials, and the candidates aren’t dropping in for visits and speeches.  They are “in the bag”.  President Trump has a total of twenty states with 125 Electoral votes locked in, Joe Biden twenty states and the District of Columbia, totaling 232.  

So all Biden has to do is win thirty-eight more Electoral votes and he’s the next President.  That’s exactly what Hillary Clinton needed to do as well.  She didn’t win a single one beyond the “locked in” states.

181 Electoral votes are up for grabs, along with the Presidency of the United States and, not to get overly dramatic, the fate of the American experiment and the free world.

Degrees of Blueness

If you were alive on November 8th of 2016, you remember the term “the Blue Wall”.  This was the “impregnable” Democratic bastion of Pennsylvania and the Northern Tier:  Michigan and Wisconsin.  That’s a total of forty-six votes, more than enough to win.  And Democrats watched as each of those states, one by one, went to Donald Trump.  Each was by the narrowest margin, a total of 77744 votes out of over 13 million cast.  (Want to delve into that more – here’s a Trump World post from March of 2017 about the count – 77744).

Joe Biden is in the same position.  And he’s also at the same point in polling that Clinton was about three weeks out from the election.  She had a commanding lead in the polls in each of those states, though she never broke fifty percent, and nationally as well.  So what happened?

Bringing Clinton Down

Three factors took Hillary Clinton down.  The first was over twenty years of calling both of the Clinton’s criminals even before Bill was impeached is 1998.  Hillary had the highest “unfavorable” ratings of any Presidential candidate, ever.  Six Benghazi investigations by a Republican House of Representatives just made it worse.  So she was already “softened up”. Joe Biden is running ten points ahead of Hillary’s “unfavorables” were of 2016.

The second factor was the Comey letter to Congress, re-opening the Clinton email investigation.  Whether you like Director Comey or not, his action created a whole new view of Hillary as a criminal, and also managed to tie her to the laptop of her senior aide’s husband, “serial sexter” Anthony Weiner.  It just made things a whole lot worse, and the undecided almost unanimously turned to Trump.

The third factor was the Clinton campaign didn’t recognize the shift caused by the Comey Letter, and failed to commit to defending in the “Blue Wall” states.  Trump campaigned there, and it made a difference. So Clinton lost.

Today

(All polling from Real Clear Politics averages as of 10/18/20)

Today Joe Biden is leading the polling in each of the “blue wall” states by more than six points over Trump.  And in all three he is close to fifty-percent, meaning that near half the voters are Biden voters.  The “undecided” would have to completely go for Trump to change the outcome.

But Biden also is running well in “second tier” states, states that weren’t really in play in 2016.  In North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona, Biden is carrying a two percent lead.  That’s close to the “margin of error”, but has been trending Biden all year.  All three of those states were Trump states in 2016.  

And then, for those with long political memories, there’s Florida, Florida, Florida.  Biden is leading by 4% in Florida.  Florida has 29 Electoral votes.  If Florida goes to Biden, it’s game over.

And, as they say on the TV ad – there’s more.  Hillary Clinton was never competitive in Georgia, or Ohio or Texas.  But Biden is polling well in those states, up by a percent in Georgia, tied in Ohio, and down by four percent in Texas.  If those states are competitive, that tells a whole different story than the 2016 election.  And if Biden wins Ohio, a state that will likely have an unofficial final vote count on election night, it would be another “game over” moment.

So if we give all the ties and “close calls” to Trump, currently Biden would earn 346 Electoral Votes to Trump’s 192.  Again, it’s “game over”.   

Two Weeks

But, there’s two weeks to go, and as we learned in 2016, a lot can happen.  National polls show Biden at 51% and Trump at 42%.  That poll will tighten as we get closer to Election Day, though it’s likely a third of the nation will have voted before November 3rd.  Anything can happen – and the Trump campaign has already tried to create three “October Surprises” (the Durham investigation, the Unmasking investigation, and the Hunter Biden computer dis-information nonsense).  None have worked so far.

Democrats have to show up because Trump Republicans absolutely will.  There will be arguments about voter suppression, mail-in ballot counts, and who knows what else.  The only way to assure a “clear” victory is to gain a definitive one.  And it’s not just possible, it can really happen.

Get to work – and get to the polls.

Here are the numbers: