Fall of the Soviet Union
It was only in thirty-four years ago. The Soviet Union collapsed, driven to economic disaster by US President Ronald Reagan. It was a simple game of “rich man’s” poker. The Soviet Union and the United States were in an incredibly expensive arms race. The US keeping “raising” the pot, and the USSR tried to match each bid. Some examples: the US SR-71 Blackbird high speed observation plane, versus the MIG 31 Foxhound fighter jet, and the US “Star Wars” space defense initiative versus the Soviet SK-1000 anti-satellite system. In the end, the US was spending about 6% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense. The USSR was matching the “raises”, but ended up with an unsustainable 22% of its GDP tied up in the process.
Their economy collapsed, and in 1991, the Soviet Union failed. Out of that economic failure, the “Soviet Bloc” became sovereign nations. The largest was in the Ukraine. Of big concern, was what would happen to the widespread Soviet nuclear forces as the USSR dissolved into separate states. The specter of small, unstable nations with massive nuclear arms was unacceptable. So, in 1994, the United States under President Clinton, gave the new nation of Ukraine assurances. The US said that if they would give up the Soviet nuclear arsenal in their territory, the US would protect them from future incursions (Brookings).
Russia and Ukraine
The USSR, now much smaller as Russia, also retained their only ice-free naval base at Sevastopol in the Crimean Peninsula. While it was considered Ukrainian territory, the area around the base was governed by Russia, much like the US base in Guantanamo, Cuba. Crimea was a continuing bone of contention between Russia and Ukraine.
In addition, the eastern provinces of Ukraine (Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk “oblasts”) had a greater population of ethnic Russians than the rest of the new nation. There was constant instability in those regions between Ukrainians and Russians. Russia contributed to the unrest.
In 2013-14 a pro-Russia Ukrainian President, Victor Yanukovych, was overthrown in the “Revolution of Dignity”. Yanukovych (who had the same campaign manager as Donald Trump, Paul Manafort), fled to Moscow, and a pro-Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko won the Presidency.
Vladimir Putin sent Russian troops in to take control of the entire province of Crimea, and supported open revolt in the Eastern Provinces. Some of the fighters there were native Ukrainians who supported Russia, and some were “undercover” Russian forces.
There was little that US President Obama could do militarily. There was no well-organized Ukrainian military forces capable of stopping the Russian incursions, and a direct US military confrontation with Russia in Crimea was unsustainable. Obama was able to organize world economic sanctions against Russia, hoping to create the economic pressure that Reagan used. But Russia, with the support of China and India, was able to maintain economic stability.
Prepared for War
Ukraine recognized that this was only the beginning of Russia’s intentions towards their nation. Both under President Poroshenko, and then President Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian military built up both land-based forces and a highly technical electronic warfare capability. The United States was pivotal in providing weapons and advice in that buildup, often working with other NATO nations.
In February of 2022, Russia launched in all-out invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s strategy was to pressure Ukrainian forces in the Eastern provinces and at the Crimean border, launch air attacks on cities throughout the nation, and directly attack the capital of Kyiv with mobile forces and tanks. Surprising the world, Ukraine stopped the Russian thrust, and was able to maintain most of its borders as well. The US under President Biden and NATO began pouring weaponry into the country. While there have been successes and failures on both sides of the conflict, it remains static today, over three years later.
Trump’s Ceasefire
As Donald Trump ran for President in 2024, a critical promise of his campaign was that “only he” could negotiate a “deal” between Russia and Ukraine. Soon after he took office, he made it clear that he would demand concessions from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, more than President Putin of Russia. And after an ugly White House confrontation in front of the press, the Ukrainians have made some concessions. But Putin has agreed to absolutely nothing, and seems only willing to keep Russian gains and regain Russian losses.
Putin is making Trump (and Vance, Rubio, and the rest) look bad. In response, the United States is threatening to walk away from the negotiations that they started. But in the meantime, the US aid to Ukraine is diminished, leaving them struggling to maintain the battle lines they currently control. The rest of NATO is trying to bolster them up, but US aid is critical to maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty.
History Speaks
Ukraine gave up its nuclear deterrent based on US assurances. Russia in 2014 and again in 2022, invaded Ukrainian territory. They are continuing attacks not only on Ukrainian military targets, but on civilians as well. There really is no question who is the “aggressor” and who is the “defender” here. And there should be no question what the US strategy should be.
If Trump wants a ceasefire, he cannot bargain from weakness. His existing strategy towards Ukraine, draining them of US support and resources, only encourages Putin to continue his efforts to conquer the nation. Trump, the “art of the deal” author, needs to give Putin a clear choice. Either come to the table with a legitimate position, or face full American support for the Ukrainian military.
Right now the Trump Administration is signaling the exact opposite. The US is saying: make a deal, or we’ll withdraw, and leave Ukraine “swinging in the wind”, and Russia undeterred.
It’s an American recipe for Ukrainian disaster.
