Month: November 2024

Official Announcement

This week, the President-elect officially said on “X-formerly known as Twitter” (legally recognized as an “official source”) that on his first day in office, he will put a 25% tariff on America’s neighbors and allies, Mexico and Canada.  He claims that neither country is controlling migrants coming from them to the United States, and that Mexico is a source of fentanyl as well.  

So let’s try to keep this simple (the KISS principle, Keep It Simple, Stupid).  A tariff is a tax on imported goods.  When a bottle of Mexican tequila comes to the border at a cost of, say $20, a 25% tariff would require that $5 more be paid to the US Government.  Tariffs are normally about trade, not illegal migration or personal animosity.  But tariffs do “raise money” for the US Government, and, in fact, were the major source of income for the government in the early years of the Republic.

Drunken Math

Here’s the deal though.  The Mexican tequila Agaveros (the guys who actually make tequila) charge $20 for their product.  When the US taxes that, the seller simply adds that cost onto the price of the bottle.  So, what Americans bought for $20, now costs $25.  The tariff, the tax, comes out of the consumer’s pocket, not the producer’s.

Of course there could be an impact on the producer.  Maybe fewer people buy their tequila, because it costs more.  And if there is enough producer “pain and loss”, perhaps the Mexican government will accede to the demands of the “taxer”, the US Government.  But the immediate “pain” of a tariff is on the consumer, the buyer; not the Agaveros in Mexico.

Sure, tequila drinkers in the US could stop drinking it.  Since tequila is exclusively a Mexican product, they could switch to Tennessee Whiskey, or even Irish Whiskey, since there isn’t a tariff on Ireland, yet.   But if they want tequila, they have to pay the Agaveros, and Uncle Sam.

Bored Feet

The same is true for Canadian products.  Some “simple” numbers:  the US produces 70% of its construction lumber, and imports 30%.  Of that 30%, 85% comes from Canada.  A little bit of mathematical wizardry, and; 25% of American construction lumber comes from Canada.  Trump’s tariff would add 25% to the cost of that lumber (12.7 billion board feet).  So to keep it simple (KISS), construction costs go up all over the United States.  Who pays for that?  The folks who are paying for construction; that new house, or school, or rebuilding the deck that finally started to rot away.  US consumers pay the price, not the West Fraser Lumber Company in British Columbia.

Your Pocket

It’s a tax on us (us, you and me, and US the United States).  It’s not a tax on them (Mexico, Canada, China and the rest).  Even if you didn’t vote for Harris for President, she certainly had  one valid point.   If the Trump Administration actually goes through with their tariff policy, Americans will pay a huge additional tax, on average, $4000 more per family a year.  

So why use tariffs?  In American history, tariffs originally produced revenue for a national government that couldn’t directly levy taxes (until the 16^th Amendment was passed, allowing for an income tax).  But today, tariffs only raise about 2% of the total government revenue.  51% comes from personal income tax, that’s $2.18 trillion.  37% comes from social security and Medicare tax, and only 4% from corporate taxes.  

Thanks Trump

How much would the Trump tariff policy raise?  Estimates puts it at $2.8 trillion over the next ten years ($280 billion a year).   That is about 13% of the money raised by personal income tax.  So if there was a 13% cut in income taxes, American consumers might, maybe, break even.  But here’s the thing; tariffs aren’t a “graduated tax”, where the people who make more pay a greater percentage.  Tariffs are strictly, you but it, you pay it.  So, just like other forms of sales tax, tariffs impact lower income folks greater than upper income folks.  It called a regressive tax because the “burden of taxation” isn’t evenly shared. 

Let’s get simple (KISS) one more time.  A huge increase in tariffs, would result in higher prices for everyone.  It’s inflation, this time directly caused by the government taking the money in tax.  What the government does with that money isn’t really the point – the simple point is, tariffs will cost consumers more out of their pockets then they are paying now.

And instead of the “Brandon” inflation slogan of 2022, “Thanks Joe Biden”; we will be able to say “Thanks Trump” for it all.  

Ripped Off

Special Prosecutor Jack Smith ripped the band-aid off yesterday.  The Justice Department, under Smith’s name, dropped the charges against Donald J Trump in the Washington “Insurrection  Case”.  Smith did not say that his indictment was in error, or that Trump was somehow, all of a sudden, innocent.  Instead, Smith cited that old internal Nixon Justice Department memo that states a sitting and now, an elected President cannot be indicted or charged while in office.

At the same time, Smith also asked the 11^th Circuit Court of Appeals to drop Trump’s involvement in the Mar-a-Lago, classified documents case.  That case was dismissed by trial judge Aileen Cannon, after which Smith appealed the dismissal.  The others involved in the case, including Trump aides and lawyers, are still included.

Unbalanced Scale

There is an old saying:  “Elections have consequences”.  Donald Trump is the next President of the United States.  The United States Supreme Court already put their collective thumbs on the “scale of Justice”, declaring that many of Trump’s actions were immune from prosecution.  The six Justice majority made it pretty plain:  they thought that charging a former President was inappropriate, and probably, unconstitutional.  And with a Trump appointed Justice Department coming in the door on January 20^th, now there is no one left to prosecute a case against him.

So what of the 2020 election, the Insurrection, and the boxes of classified documents in the golden bathroom of  Mar-a-Lago?  Star Wars character Obi-Won-Kenobi said it best:  “There’s nothing to see here, move along”.  In fact, it’s reasonable to assume that early in the Trump Presidency, perhaps even on his first day in office, a wide range of Presidential Pardons will be issued to all those involved.  Don’t be surprised if those serving Federal sentences for Insurrection offenses are not only out of prison, but somehow employed in the new Trump Administration.  

Whitewash

For the next four years, the events of January 6, 2021 will be whitewashed.  We will hear that those who stormed the Capitol are really heroes, standing up for a stolen Presidency.   And in our current era of political “right-ness”, there will be educators who will tell our children a whole-cloth fiction of those tried to overthrow our Constitution, and the gallant struggles of Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro. 

In the American South, the atrocity of white rioters destroying black communities in the early 20^th century isn’t taught in most schools.  Like the parents there, we will have to teach our children the true story outside of our educational institutions.   The Insurrection will be another hidden horror, like Tulsa and Rosewood and the 1932 attack on the Bonus Army in Washington, DC.

And for those who hold out false hope that somehow, sometime, those indictments will be reinstated:  that’s not going to happen.  Even if, Democrats weather the next four years; even if our democracy manages to survive this crisis in authoritarianism; even if the right for everyone to vote isn’t subsumed by the government sanctioned onslaught of restrictions:  it will never be politically expedient to revive this issue.  It will be like the McCarthy era of the 1950’s, a dark spot in the history book, seldom discussed and never adjudicated.

Our Story

We all know what happened in 2020 and 2021.  Regardless of the forthcoming “re-write”, many Americans won’t ignore their “lying eyes”, and pretend what they saw in plain sight didn’t happen.   And even if there is no legal justice in America, we can still hope to save our Democracy.  What happens in the next four years is as critical as any period in our history, including the Civil War.  What story will we tell our children eight years from now? 

When Trump was first elected in 2016, the leading musical on Broadway was “Hamilton”.  The songs of Lin Manuel Miranda helped get many of us through the first four years of Donald Trump, and fueled the “Resistance” to his actions.  We now stand at the beginning of another four years of outrage by “tweet”, and real-life atrocities.  Yes, Donald Trump and many of his minions will never be called to the bar of justice.  But what happens next is so much more important than what happened before.  Who gets to “tell the story” of the 2020’s, of a nation so narrowly divided that we could turn from Trump to Biden, then from Harris back to Trump.  

“Who lives, who dies, who tells your story?”   We get to decide, again. 

Sixteen

I was sixteen years old in 1972.  We were already four years into the Nixon Presidency. He failed on his election promise to end Vietnam. I hoped that Senator McGovern of South Dakota might finally stop what at that time was America’s longest war.  I was mistaken.  The McGovern campaign self-destructed within days of his nomination, and, as we found out in the next couple of years, Nixon led his campaign to criminally interfere and “help the destruction along”.  It was called Watergate.  

(By the way, thank you President Biden, for “biting the bullet” and ending America’s new longest war in Afghanistan).

There wasn’t much trust in the government as a whole.  The FBI seemed to spend more effort trying to disrupt student protests and civil rights movement, than they did solving crimes.  The Director was the aging J Edgar Hoover, entering his forty-eighth year at the helm.  His “files” on American public figures were legendary, backed up with the full investigatory power of his federal agency.  No one really had authority over Hoover, though Nixon’s campaign manager turned Attorney General John Mitchell was “in charge”.  Hoover did whatever Hoover wanted.  To go against him was a guaranteed swift trip to political oblivion.

Not On TV

Comedian George Carlin spoke for a lot of younger Americans when he wrote the ground-breaking “Seven Words” sketch.  It was about the seven words you couldn’t say on TV.  Should one of those words slip out, the Federal Communications Commission could remove a radio or TV station’s license to broadcast. 

 In the late 1960’s my father had a direct experience with that.  His TV station’s morning news show starring Phil Donahue interviewed Jerry Rubin, one of the seven charged for disrupting the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago.  It was a “live” show.  But Dad inserted a seven second delay, literally taping the show on one machine then stringing the tape across the room to “playback” on another.  The delay gave Dad time to push the “mute” button for the inevitable profanities that Hoffman was famous for.  Missing one might take the Station, WLW-D in Dayton, Ohio, off the air.

We didn’t hear Carlin’s sketch on television or radio.  We had to buy his record, or tape, or “pirate” one from a friend.  So my copy of “Seven Words” was on a homemade cassette tape, mis-labeled as Joni Mitchell’s “Clouds” in case Mom or Dad checked.  And it was through this “underground” method, that Seven Words became famous to an entire generation.

A Strong Word

Ok, I know, you’ve been waiting to read the “seven words”.  Here’s a link. Even in my current obstinant old age I’m not comfortable putting them all on paper (or your screen).   But I am going to use one, the big one, that one that’s never, ever,  OK, even on today’s TV (but fine on cable):  F**K.  It was (and often still is) one of my favorites, and it’s all because of Carlin.  To paraphrase him:  “(It’s) a good word, a strong word.  It could be the name of a hero:  “I am F**K, F**K of the Mountain!!!”  I did shout that from the top of the White Mountains, the Rocky Mountains, the Cascades, the Appalachians, the Western Fells in Great Britain; and several smaller hills throughout my backpacking career.

Which gets me back to this essay.  Because, like the late sixties and early seventies, we are entering an era where we might not be able to trust the government.  When I see who might be leading our most important agencies:  Homeland Security, Department of Justice, the CIA and the FBI and the rest; I worry about surveillance and payback.  Trump has already promised “retribution”; and if he ever gets down to “bloggers” (I hate the term, I’m an essayist, G*D  D*MN IT!!), there’s a million words that connect to me (Our America).  

Who’s Listening

As part of Carlin’s skit, he noted this 1960’s concern about surveillance.  He answered his phone and assumed there was an FBI wiretap in place:  “F**K Hoover, can I help you?”  Now, it’s going to be a long two years, or four, or maybe forever until I feel secure from my government again.  With MAGA control of the Presidency, the Congress, and Trump and McConnell’s stolen majority on the Supreme Court; who will speak when they come for me?

That’s why I need to write this essay, so folks won’t be quite so put-off when they hear my new phone greeting. And for the few old “hippie” veterans  left from the anti-war movement, I hope it brings a smile.

 “F**K Trump, Hi it’s Marty!!”

A History Lesson

By the mid 1820’s, the United States was entering “adolescence”.  The era of the Founders had ended, their passing tolled by the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia.  On July 4^th, 1826; fifty years after the signing of the Declaration of Independence, both Thomas Jefferson and John Adams died.  (Supposedly Adams last words were, “at least Jefferson still lives”, not knowing that the Sage of Monticello had passed earlier in the day). They were aware of the significance of what they started in 1776, and hoped for even greater things for the Nation they created.

Adams’ son, John Quincy, was the President of the United States.  Like his father, he was definitely not the most popular politician of his time.  In fact, he didn’t win either the popular or the electoral vote in the election of 1824. In that era, there was no “two-party” system.   Of the two original political parties in the Nation, John Adam’s Federalists, withered away after the War of 1812.  That left the party of Jefferson, the Democratic-Republican Party, as the only national political force.  In 1824, four different Democratic-Republicans ran for President.  

John Quincy Adams

John Quincy Adams was the Secretary of State (and the true author of the “Monroe Doctrine”).  For the past three Presidencies, the Secretary of State succeeded into the highest office, and Adams wanted to continue the trend.  He had the backing of his home New England states.  Andrew Jackson, Senator from Tennessee and the Hero of the Battle of New Orleans a decade before, represented the Western Party.    Henry Clay of Kentucky, Speaker of the House of Representatives, was able to get his support from the center of the Nation. And Treasury Secretary William Crawford had support from his home state of Georgia, and the largest state in the Nation, Virginia.

Jackson represented a populist view, arguing against “His Excellency” the son of the founder Adams.   He received 40% of the popular vote, and the most electoral votes.  Adams was second with 32% of the vote, and the second most electoral votes.  Crawford and Clay split the rest, denying either of the first two candidates a winning majority in the Electoral College.

With no Electoral majority, the 12^th Amendment to the Constitution mandated that the House of Representatives select from the top three candidates.  Each state had one equal vote, so state Congressional delegations had to vote among themselves to see how their one vote would be cast.  Clay, fourth in the election, was dropped from the race.  But as Speaker, and a strong opponent of Jackson, he lent his support  and influence to Adams. 

Corrupt Bargain

Adams won thirteen states to Jackson’s seven.  Clay would become Adams’ Secretary of State.  And Jackson, shocked by the result, began his 1828 campaign for the Presidency on what he claimed was the  “corrupt bargain” between Clay and Adams.

Four years later, there was no doubt as to the outcome of the election.  Jackson won 55% of the popular vote and 178 electoral votes to Adams’ 44% and 83.  America’s first “populist” President took office in 1829 (Adams, like his father, refused to attend the Inauguration). Jackson opened the White House to the Inaugural crowd, and the resulting party did thousands of dollars of damage to the furnishings.  Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story put it:  “The reign of King Mob seemed triumphant”. 

 One of the first things Jackson did was fire every government employee that he controlled, and put in his own supporters, all the way down to the local postmasters throughout the Nation.  His argument was that any good American can do the job, so it might as well be a good American who supports me.

To the Victor

Senator William Marcy of New York described it best:  “To the victor belongs the spoils”.  And so began the “spoils system”, when each new President, and particularly each one of a different political party, would empty the Federal employment and replace them with his own supporters.   This continued until after the election of 1880.  That winner, James Garfield, was soon assassinated by a disappointed office seeker.  Garfield’s successor, Chester Arthur, used the tragedy to pass the first true Civil Service reform, making most Federal employment available on merit, as opposed to political affiliation.

It is no accident that Donald Trump deeply admires Andrew Jackson’s Presidency.  Jackson was a man of action.  He stood up against the Supreme Court, ignoring their order to stop the Indian Removal ( “The Trail of Tears” was only one part of the massive exile).  Jackson supposedly said of the Supreme Court Chief Justice, John Marshall; “Marshall’s made his decision, let him enforce it”.  That might be a good thing to keep in mind with the looming migrant round-up and deportation.  

And Jackson believed that the most important qualification for holding office was loyalty to himself.  Trump wants to alter civil service so he can “deconstruct the administrative state”. So when we see the list of his appointees to the highest government positions:  from election denier Pam Bondi as Attorney General to Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 co-author Russell Vought as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, keep that in mind.  They are Trump loyalists.  That is their most important qualification.

To the Victor go the Spoils.

Post Script

Jackson’s political party became the Democratic Party of today.  Adams supporters became the Whig Party, which dissolved in the enslavement crisis of the 1850’s.  But many Whigs became part of a new political Party, the Republicans, including their first President, Abraham Lincoln.

So there is precedent for political parties to “evolve”.  We saw it as the Segregationist Democrats of the 1920’s became the current diverse Party. And, we experience it now as the “traditional Republicans” of a decade ago are replaced by the “MAGA Republicans”.  Who knows what tomorrow will bring.

Dawn Thirty

Look, I taught public school for thirty-six years.  That entire time, kids arrived at school about 7:15 in the morning.  So I was at work by six-thirty for my entire life. (Except for the years when I was part of “zero-period” or held morning workouts, then I was there before six).  Part of the “glamour” of retirement, was that I could sleep-in as late as I wanted, and stay-up to the “wee hours” if I was so inclined.

Old habits definitely die hard though, and the (now) four dogs don’t necessarily like to sleep-in.  So while I’m not up at five am that often, 6-ish is still the normal wake-up time.  I take care of dogs, I clean up the kitchen, and then, I write.  And for more than a decade, the background “noise” to all of that has been the MSNBC  morning show first called Scarborough Country, now Morning Joe.   

Scarborough

If you don’t know, Joe Scarborough was the Republican Congressman from the Florida Panhandle. (He held the seat recently vacaterd by Matt Gaetz).  He was elected as part of the Newt Gingrich “contract with America” crowd in 1994, in the middle of Bill Clinton’s first term as President.  Scarborough was a conservative with a 95% rating, and resigned from the Congress in 2001.

He then moved to be a “conservative voice” on MSNBC, along with such luminaries as, believe it or not, Tucker Carlson and, more recently, Nicolle Wallace.  His morning show began in 2003, and he’s been there ever since.  In 2007, he brought Mika Brzezinski in as a co-host  (along with Willie Geist), the daughter of Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski.  Joe and Mika ultimately divorced their spouses and married each other in 2018. The ceremony was held in the National Archives main chamber, and officiated by Democratic Congressman Elijah Cummings. 

Issues

Not surprisingly, I don’t agree with Scarborough on a lot of issues. But he has come a long way, and even resigned from the Republican Party after the first election of Donald Trump.  He often has other commentators on the panel that I enjoy, and sometimes his “rants” are challenging and even entertaining.  But there are two issues where I really struggle with Morning Joe.

The first was back in 2015.  Joe and Mika gave an open phone line to Donald Trump; hours of “free on-air time” for Trump’s riffs and rants. All he had to do was call in.  And while both Mika and Joe criticized Trump to his “ear” on-air, they fell prey to a Trump tactic:  better to have bad attention than no attention at all.  

Those on-air conversations on Morning Joe served to legitimize the first Trump candidacy, and brought him the national attention he wasn’t getting from other candidates.  They didn’t “elect” Trump, but the sure gave him a leg-up. But afterwards, one thing you could count on from Morning Joe:  they were critical of Donald Trump.  Trump responded to the criticism with personal attacks.   He insulted Mika about her facial surgery, and even went so far to accuse Joe of complicity in the murder of one of his staff members. 

In this last year Joe and Mika were outspoken in warning about Trump’s threat to American Democracy.  They even put their own thumb on the scale. When Joe Biden was pushed off of the ticket, they supported Kamala Harris’s candidacy.   And they were as despondent as the rest of us with the results of this month’s election.

Kiss the Ring

So I was shocked when I watched the two of them try to justify going to Mar-a-Lago for a private audience with Trump two weeks ago.  Mika said; “Joe and I went to Mar-a-Lago to meet personally with President-elect Trump. And for those asking why we would go speak to the president-elect during such fraught times, especially between us, I guess I would ask back, why wouldn’t we?”

Comedian John Stewart spoke for the rest of us when he responded:  “Uh…because you said he was Hitler.”

I guess we were warned in September.  The “billionaire class”;  Musk, Bezos, Jamie Diamon and even Warren Buffett were all “hedging their bets” against a Trump win (Mark Cuban stood out as the exception).   They, especially Musk and Bezos, “swallowed” the events of January 6, 2021, and excused them away.  Instead of standing up for Harris, many ducked.  That is, except for Musk, who put his billions where his mouth was, into the Trump campaign.

Defend Democracy

Marc Elias, the lawyer to the Democrats, put it well.  He compared the normalization of the Trump Presidency, to a character in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, who told how he went bankrupt:  “Two ways.  Gradually, then all at once.”  Some Americans are “gradually” accepting the bankruptcy of a Trump Administration, gradually acting like it’s all “normal”.  It is not.  And some Democrats, commentators, and influential business leaders, are showing us the “gradual” way.  

Elias fears that he may be on the wrong side of history.  His efforts (outlined in his newsletter, Democracy Docket) are paid for in part by his subscribers, and he promises as long as he has their support “…it will not obey and it will not back down”.  

Mika and Joe went to Mara Lago.  Whatever “frank” conversations they had with the President-elect, their mere presence put them on the same side with Kevin McCarthy, and Lindsey Graham, and the dozens of others who opposed Trump, lost, then went to “kiss the ring”.  Scarborough will say that they are recognizing the obvious, Trump is going to be the President.  Others, like John Stewart, rightfully call out the hypocrisy.  Either he was a threat to American democracy, or he wasn’t.  Either they were lying then, or they are cowards now.

I wish I could stand CNN. 

Sitting Shiva

Ok, the ritual time of mourning must come to an end.  Half of the Nation “sat shiva” for the election results.  Now, like it, or more specifically, not like it, Donald Trump will be the President of the United States for the next four years.  For many of us, there is a great concern about the survival of the American experiment in democracy.  I know, those that voted for the new President will call that extremist.  I only take him at his own words – words that we are told to ignore.  But, like the old saying about “drunk truth”, I think Trump says what he thinks, believes, and wants.  

There are things that a President can do, by himself, and those that he cannot.  Set let’s look at what those areas are.

Congress and the Law

The President cannot change the law.  That is a power of Congress.  So if Congress passed a law creating the Department of Education, the President cannot, of himself, dismantle it.  It takes a literal “act of Congress” to undo an “act of Congress”.  On the other hand, the President can undo the executive actions of former Presidents.  An example:  Trump could end all of the actions Joe Biden took to reduce student loan debts.  He could also decide to enforce the existing laws against illegal migrants.  That’s why Biden tried so hard to get an immigration law passed by Congress.  

And, for those local folks, the President cannot of himself repeal the “Chips Act”, that so impacts our economy here in Central Ohio.  Even in a Republican controlled Congress, it’s hard to imagine that they will somehow revoke the “deal” with Intel, and stop the construction of the billion dollar chip production plant in New Albany.  It was kind of a Republican thing anyway.

President Trump cannot by himself, end the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.  Again, it’s a law.  As John McCain made it clear the last time Trump was around, if the Congress won’t, he can’t.  So we might not have to worry about the Republican “concepts” of what health insurance laws might be.

Recess Appointments

And while the President has the authority to appoint his own cabinet members, the Senate has the “check” (of checks and balances) of “advise and consent”.   In short, the Senate must agree to his choices by a majority vote.  So while Donald Trump can nominate anyone he wants, the Senate still must confirm by simple majority (appointments are not subject to the sixty-vote filibuster rule).  

The Senate is narrowly divided between 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats, with a tie vote broken by the Vice President, soon to be Republican JD Vance.  So it would take three Republican Senators to disagree with Trump’s pick to deny any appointment. Matt Gaetz for Attorney General, Robert Kennedy for Health and Human Services, and Pete Hegseth of Defense Secretary should make the Senate reconsider Trump’s choices.

If the Senate were to go into recess for ten days or more, the President “might” be able to appoint Cabinet members without consent.  They could serve for as much as a year.  In his past term as President, Trump took full advantage of recess appointments.  In the last days of his Presidency, several cabinet level positions, including Secretary of Defense and the Attorney General were held by unconfirmed leaders.

But the Senate has the ultimate choice in this matter.  If they remain in session, recess appointments are prevented.  And the Senate can stay “open” even if most Senators are out of town, by having two members present, one to preside and one to call the Senate into session.  So they will make the choice, not the President.

Executive Action

But, when Trump says he will round up and deport migrants who came into the United States illegally, he can.  Congress could try to control that through laws and funding limitations, but I don’t expect they will.  He can even nationalize the National Guard to help. But can he send in the United States military?  

Let’s get into “the legal weeds” for just a moment.  There are two conflicting laws at play in the use of Federal troops to enforce US law.  The first is the Insurrection Act of 1807, which gives the President power to deploy US troops (at state request) to put down an insurrection.  The second is the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, which prohibits the use of Federal troops to enforce domestic law.  

So if the illegal migrants pose a threat of “insurrection”, then the state governor (see Greg Abbott, the Governor of Texas) could request Federal troops.  But without the threat of insurrection, then Posse Comitatus should apply.  All of that sounds like a case for the Supreme Court.  

With this Court, all outcomes are possible.   The bad news here:  I fully anticipate Americans to commit unforgiveable actions against migrants, illegal and legal, under the “color of law”, in the next four years.  It’s perhaps the most heinous results of our fellow citizens’ choice of Donald Trump.

Commander-In-Chief

Where Trump actually has the most power is his authority as Commander-in-Chief.  He absolutely CAN order the court martial of members of the military, essentially for any reason he chooses.  The old legal saw that a prosecutor can use a grand jury to “indict a ham sandwich” is even more true in the military.  But once the court martial is summoned, the Court itself determines whether the defendant is guilty or not.  That is NOT the President’s decision.  So the threat of court martial is real, just as any of us could be indicted on some charge.  Whether that charge results in a conviction and penalty is completely different.

But the Commander-in-Chief can “fire” generals from their current posts, and appoint different ones. He can “stack” the current military commands with leaders of his liking.  So don’t be surprised to hear that the Flynn brothers, retired Generals Mike and Charles, are returning to active service.

And the President has vast powers in executing the foreign policy of the United States.  Whatever President Biden tried to achieve in the Middle East, Trump has publicly communicated to Netanyahu that he should do whatever he needs to “…to wrap this up”.  And President Zelenskyy of Ukraine is well aware that while he had Biden’s support, that will wither under Trump.  So he too has to look at a future with limited opportunities for victory.

Bobby Kennedy (the Senator, not the freak) used to quote an old Chinese curse:  “May you live in interesting times. Like it or not, we live in interesting times.”  When I was younger I struggled to understand why this was a curse.  

Now, in the “New Age of Trump”, I get it.  

SWAT

You’ve seen it on TV.  The SWAT team is poised outside the door, one officer wielding the “post-pounder”, the heavy steel tube with handles that can crash through any lock.  There’s the legally required warning; “Police!!” —  then the crash of the “pounder” busting through.  But it’s the next step that I’m interested in.  The “door crasher” steps back, and another officer leans in and tosses what looks like a grenade from an old black and white World War II TV show. 

It’s not that kind of explosive.  Instead, it’s a “flash-bang”, that explodes with a brilliant and blinding flash of light, followed by a deafening “boom”.  The theory:   it will disorient the suspects, and  allow SWAT to get into the room and gain control before they can react.  It’s a distraction, and before the suspect knows it, they are face to face with heavy weapons, handcuffs, and little choice but to surrender.

Appointees

This week, President-Elect Trump (first time I’ve typed those words in eight years, might have to take a short break), announced some cabinet appointments.  A few were expected and “normal”; Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, former Congressman John Ratcliffe to head the CIA; the “father” of child separation Tom Homan as “Border Czar”.  (OK, Homan isn’t normal, but, like Deputy Chief of Staff Steven Miller, foreseeable).  And there was the inevitable “Fox and Friends” host.  Last time it was Larry Kudlow as economic advisor.  This time it’s Pete Hegseth for the Secretary of Defense.

Except for Hegseth,  no one created too much “shock and awe”.  They were the crash of the post-pounder at the door.  Then the grenade rolled in.  Trump nominated former Democratic Congressman from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard, as Director of National Intelligence.  That’s a big deal.  Gabbard has connections to dictators throughout the world, and has followed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “party line” in recent years.  Handing her the reins to the Intelligence apparatus seems like a dubious idea, the fox guarding the chicken coop kind of thing.

Next he added North Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security.  Her qualifications seem to be that she governed a state with a long international border, with Canada.  And she was willing to send the North Dakota National Guard to Texas.  Oh, and she told the world that she shot her dog – maybe a strong “Trump” qualification for dealing with migrants.

Flash and Bang

But then the first “Flash” exploded. Trump proffered former Congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida up as the next Attorney General .  Gaetz is a lawyer (William and Mary), and actually passed the Florida bar.  But he has little experience practicing the law, and no training as a Prosecutor.  And he’s been under investigation by both the Department of Justice that he would lead, and his own colleagues in the Congress.   He allegedly engaged in hiring prostitutes, some underage, and transporting them across state lines. In fact, he resigned from Congress in order to dodge a House Ethics Committee report, due out at the end of this week.  

Senator Markwayne of Oklahoma last year explained that “they all” saw the videos on Gaetz’s phone:  sex parties and “Red Bull/Viagra” cocktails so Matt could go “🎵All Night Long🎵”.  But the Department of Justice dropped their investigation, and now that Gaetz is no longer in Congress, the Ethics Committee doesn’t have jurisdiction. 

But all is not lost for Gaetz.  Thursday it was revealed that he resigned from THIS Congress – not the next one. So, in effect, Gaetz is taking a two month vacation, with the option to return as the Congressman from Pensacola in January.

Next came the “Bang”:  Bobby Kennedy as Secretary of Health and Human Services.  The premier anti-vaxxer in the Nation, would be in charge of the Centers for Disease Control, the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration.   So what if he (like Gaetz and Hegseth) has a history of “women issues”.  And then there’s the whole bear in Central Park thing, whale-head on top of the family car, and the worm eating his brain episodes.  I guess those really aren’t a problem for the incoming President.

Payoffs and Tradeoffs

So what’s the point of the Gaetz/Kennedy grenade?  

First of all, it’s all about payoffs.  Gaetz, Gabbard and Kennedy all supported the Trump Presidential campaign.  And Gabbard and Kennedy were once Democrats, pariahs in their own Party who “switched” to the other side.  So Trump can even claim he’s being bipartisan.

Second, it all about “owning the Libs”.  Gaetz has been a continual gadfly, supporting every issue to make “Libs” feel bad.  And Kennedy, while still the scion of the family Democratic name, has been politically disowned by his own family.  They say he’s got “mental issues”, and they know best.  But Trump can shove him down the “Libs” throat.

Third, it forces the Republicans in the US Senate to make a choice.  Are they Trump “Loyalists”?  As Markwayne, of “Red Bull and Viagra”, now says:  “whatever the President wants, I completely agree”.   If Republican Senators stand against the President, then they take the risk of being declare “RINOS”, Republicans in Name Only, with all of the electoral implications for the future.

But most likely, Gaetz, Kennedy and Gabbard  are a “Flash-Bangs”, meant to distract.  It’s a kind of tradeoff, if those folks are a bridge too far, then all of the other appointees are “acceptable”.  And of course, they aren’t; from former New York Congressman Lee Zeldin at the EPA, to former Senator and Christian Nationalist Mike Huckabee as Ambassador to Israel.  And who knows what the “richer than rich” team of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will be doing with their unofficial-official “Department of Government Efficiency”.  

Welcome to  Trump, 2.0.  If chaos and upheaval is your thing – the next four years is going to be a “wild time”. Have fun!  

The fate of the Nation is in his hands.

Much of this essay was published almost eight years ago, when I first started writing in “Our America”.  But here in Ohio, the question of where transgendered kids are allowed to “pee” is back.  The lame duck State legislature thinks this issue is more important than the myriad of other problems Ohio faces, from drought conditions to road construction to rampant political corruption.  So instead of fixing those, they pick on the kids most likely to be victims.

The facts:  3.3% of high school students identify as transgendered.  In Ohio that means somewhere around 17,000 kids.  That would be about 12 per high school if they all went to school.  And some are in public schools, some in private. But many are “online” or home schooled, so the number per school is less. But, Wednesday, the Ohio State Legislature went out of their way to point those few kids out, and make their life even harder.  Here in Ohio, the bullies are in the State House.

Made-Up Issue

George Takei of “Star Trek” fame, made a statement about transgender kids. .He spoke about their being forced to use a “biological” restroom rather than their “identified” restroom. He said, “This is a made up issue”.

I spent 36 years in public high and middle schools, and had the opportunity to interact with transgender kids.  They are not “a danger to our children”.  First of all, they are “our children”, often children most in need of protection.  Second, they are kids:  kids who have made a most difficult decision.  

They recognize that their brain’s sexual identity and their biological sexual identity are not the same.  It is such a powerful force that they are willing to face all of the barriers that society marshals against them, just as the kids who find they are gay or bisexual do.  It’s not a “choice”, it’s a recognition of who they are.

By the way, no matter how old you are now, they were in your school too.  But, until recently, those kids were forced to live closeted lives, lying to everyone (often including their parents, friends and even themselves) about who they are.  Many still do.  

School Problems

Schools have been aware of this issue for years.  Many schools have quietly taken care of the problem:  transgender girls (biological boys) who dress like girls and act like girls, use the girls restroom and no one is the wiser.  The same is true with transgender boys (they go in the stalls, as do many cisgender boys).

And that argument about locker rooms and showers is from a totally different generation.  Today’s kids don’t “get naked” in school.  Most school shower rooms (other than for wrestling teams, where almost all kids wear some form of swimsuit) have become storerooms.  And the vast majority of kids don’t have a problem with any of this.  They accept the differences of their friends.  It’s the adults who are hung up.

New Frontier

Transgender is the new frontier of identity law.  Our society has reached a general understanding about gay and bisexual people; we have removed most of the laws that discriminated against their conduct.  In public schools the era of “being gay means being bullied” has changed. The school administration is now protecting the victims, rather than enabling the perpetrators (that wasn’t always true, “in the day”).  While incidents still occur, in general, kids accept their friends as they are – or don’t deal with them at all.

Transgender kids (and adults) are not “molesters” sneaking into the opposites sex’s restroom to “catch a peep”.   They are the victims.  As a society, protecting the civil rights of folks is not a state’s rights issue.  The fine old white men in the State House today, argue that states should be able to determine these rights.  But that’s an old argument, a holdover from the Civil War, and it shouldn’t pass legal muster, or have a place in a modern society.  

As the 14^th Amendment to the Constitution and the multiple civil rights acts passed since state:  a citizen of the United States enjoys the rights and protections of all US citizens in every state.  We should not have different rights in Pennsylvania than we have in North Carolina, or Ohio. 

And this should apply to all forms of discrimination, including transgender folks.  We must NOT discriminate against the most fragile members of our society, children who are discovering that their differences are so much greater than their peers.  That’s got to be hard enough, without the government (or the Principal) checking their genitals at the restroom door.

Experts

All of the experts, most of the amateurs, and just a few damned fools; will tell you why Kamala Harris lost the election.  They say, she was too “woke”, or she was too “lib”, or for some, not “lib” enough.  Maybe her greatest mistake was she failed to pay obeisance to Joe Rogan, and spend three hours in Texas with him.   Or she didn’t move far enough away from Biden on the issue of Israel’s destruction of Palestinians in Gaza and Lebanon. (Of course, Trump’s election gives Netanyahu free rein to do whatever he wants – so if that was a reason to vote against Harris, it sure backfired).

And then there’s those other things she didn’t do.  She didn’t take enough credit for the Biden Administration’s successes on infrastructure, on industrial development, on jobs and the economy.  And she didn’t give the relatively simple explanations for her change on the “fracking question”, or the more significant questions about inflation.  

Occam’s Razor 

Add all of that together, and maybe it impacts a million voters (if that).  Joe Biden got 81 million votes in 2020.  Harris has 71 million, with perhaps another 4 million still to be counted (most in California).  That still puts her short 6 million votes.  And Trump got basically the same as he did in 2020.  So it’s clearly not a “flop” of Biden to Trump.  It’s simply that 6 million Biden voters stayed home.

The “Occam’s Razor” answer to the Harris turnout is simple, and saddening.  If we look at the last five Presidential elections it seems obvious.  In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama was a Black man who won large victories.   Hillary Clinton in 2016, was a White woman who won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College.  In 2020, Joe Biden was a White man who won the most popular votes in history, and the Electoral College.  And in 2024, Kamala Harris, a Black woman, lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College, to a former President who is a convicted felon.

Misogyny

Is it really that simple?  Is nearly half of America so biased against women, White or Black, that they will literally vote for a twice-impeached, convicted felon, ex-President?  It seems that the “Occam’s Razor” answer is clear:  misogyny wins out.

And while I absolutely hate to give the Trump campaign any credit at all; they did recognize how to exacerbate that misogyny.  Take the entire disgusting but effective transgender campaign: from manly looking women on the basketball courts to the dreaded “girls’ restroom stalker”, to the young adolescent boy in hospital gown waiting to be “reassigned”: it was all about “protecting women”.   And the candidate said the quiet part out loud:  “I will protect women, whether they like it or not”.  He took away their agency, their right to make their own decisions. 

And for a significant portion of the Nation, both male and female, the abortion rights argument also “fed” the “men know better” principle.  Trump’s Party was the Party of “life”, even as Trump himself distanced himself with his line of “letting the states decide”.  That shrewd ideological move wasn’t really all about the “sanctity of life”.  It was about restricting the agency of women.  And the final point:  if women can’t decide about abortion, if women need to be protected from “transgendered stalkers”, then how could a woman possibly be President, the Nation’s “Protector”?

Harbinger

Let me be clear:  I hate the conclusion.  I don’t want “Our America” to be this place.  I truly believe that women in general, and Kamala Harris in particular, are eminently qualified to be President of the United States.  The United States has moved quickly:  it was only twenty years ago that “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” was a national policy for the military.  It was only a decade ago that the Supreme Court allowed for same-sex marriages nationwide.  And it has only been in the past few years that the public discussion of transgendered rights has “come out”.   

Many thought that the whole “woman” issue was settled.  But we need to remember: the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA), sent to the states for ratification in 1972, never became part of the Constitution.   That underlying misogyny has never been fully addressed.  Even today, women, on average, make 16% less than men for the same job.  For a significant part of the Nation, women need to “be protected”, not “followed”. 

It isn’t likely that the second Trump Administration will further women’s rights.  But what it will do is sharpen those women who are willing to fight for their agency.  The battles against backward Trumpism will go on; and women will lead the struggle.  Harris, even in losing, ranks fourth (behind Biden, Trump and Trump) in the number of votes gained by a Presidential candidate.  That beats Obama, and Hillary Clinton, and George W Bush.  The margin is narrowing.  And may that’s a harbinger for the future, a “light at the end of the tunnel”.  I hope.

The Good Guys

We will not storm the Capitol on January 6^th.  And we will not spend the next four years claiming that the election was rigged, or that Donald Trump is not the legitimate President of the United States.  It’s important to remember:  we are not using the Trump “playbook”.  We have to play it like the “good guys” (When did the Democratic Party of Joe Kennedy and Richard Daley become “good guys”?).  The old Democratic joke, “vote early and vote often” is, like Bill Cosby’s funniest lines; forbidden.

Last week’s election results felt overwhelming. I  described my reaction to a friend as:  crushed, devastated, infuriated, and traumatized.  But it’s not last week anymore.  So Democrats have to move on.  And there is one important “statistic” to remember:  almost half of Americans wanted Kamala Harris for President.  In the end, once California finally counts all of her votes (the Bear Flag State is more the Sloth Flag when it comes to elections), it’s likely that Trump won the popular vote by less than one percent.  So the “overwhelming, crushing, traumatizing” Red Wave, isn’t the electoral mandate that we thought, and that MAGA Republicans claim.

Friction

And we can certainly hope that the House flips to Democrats.  The votes are in, it’s not a question of action, it’s just a matter of waiting (Sloth Flag and a few others).  However the House shakes out, it’s going to be a razor thin margin of control, a vote or two between Mike Johnson or Hakeem Jeffries.  The House will serve to create “friction” to Trump’s plans.

As “good Americans”, some will want to stand with the new/old President, supporting him out of loyalty to the nation.  But, there is one lesson we can learn from the MAGA Republicans.  Even in the middle of the pandemic, even after the Insurrection (that memory will be buried deep in the next four years), I didn’t see MAGA leaders or followers lining up to support Joe Biden.  As my Mom would say; what’s good for “their Goose”, is fine for “our Gander”.   

We had the right answer in 2017:  RESIST. 

RESIST

I’m not calling for a Revolution, for Harris/Walz’s flags on the Capitol steps.  But we do need to create friction, resistance; to every inhumane or anti-democratic action that the Trump Administration tries to inflict. 

So, if they start rounding up migrants for deportation:  RESIST.  Make the 49.5% of Americans who chose against this feel like they are heard.  As we did with the child-separation program six years ago, shine a light on Trumpian inhumanity.  Make the historic comparisons to other American atrocities:  the Trail of Tears, the Tulsa Riot, Japanese/American Internment, “Operation Wetback”, Child-Separation.  Let Americans and the world see that he does not represent us all.  

If America begins to abandon Ukraine and/or NATO: RESIST.  Stand up for what’s right, regardless of the flawed autocrat-supporting views of MAGA.  “Let the word go forth” that while the leadership of the United States wants to abandon our “Shining City on the Hill”, almost half of Americans do not.

If your local school or library or university is pressured to bow to MAGA-idealism: RESIST.  The Electoral College does not apply to local elections.  Organize what I still believe is the majority of Americans who do not stand for censorship, suppression, or screaming intimidation.  The billionaire sponsored, Steve Bannon plan for overwhelming America starts at the local level.  So can ours. 

And if you’re local sheriff turns out to be a “Constitutional Sheriff”, another focus of the MAGA world,   RESIST.  If he (almost always he) decides to take unilateral action to support MAGA theology, protest.  Call him out for stepping out of his role of protecting local citizens; make  him pay a public and political price for abusing the authorities of his office.  

Be Heard

Don’t worry; they’ll be lots of chances to make your voice heard.   The only “sin” is to remain silent, or small, or to take the “safe” way out, when injustice is clear.  We must make the cost transparent.  As Martin Niemoller wrote from a Nazi concentration camp:

First they came for the Communists.
And I did not speak out, because I was not a Communist.
Then they came for the Socialists.
And I did not speak out, because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists.
And I did not speak out, because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews.
And I did not speak out, because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me.
And there was no one left to speak out for me.

Speak out!!  Find that old “RESIST!” t-shirt from 2018 buried in the drawer.  Go buy the poster board and Sharpies to make your signs.  We know what we need to do, and as hard as it is to “do it again”, it must be done.  

Otherwise, who will be left to speak for us?

Fight/Flight

A couple of personal notes before I begin.  Like a lot of Americans this week, I wake up in the middle of the night, and, for a moment, don’t remember Tuesday. But that crushing memory returns quickly.  I used to read the news to go back to sleep.  Now, that’s a path to another sleepless night.  So I read old history articles instead, keeping a distance from the events of today.

When I do confront today’s news, I try to do it on my own terms.  I feel that same distress I have before surgery. I know I have to have the procedure, but there always a strong “fight/flight” urge to jump off of the gurney, and flee down the hall in my open hospital gown.  Now, like that pre-surgery stress, I have to face down the urge to run, and force myself to confront the reality of another “Trump America”.  I know my reaction might get better in weeks or months, but for the moment, it’s almost overwhelming.  And besides, there will be plenty of reality to confront in the next four years.  We all need to take it a piece at a time, not all at once.

Horses with Teeth

I also joined my family in an “election avoidance activity”.  Coincidentally, we planned on a trip to “The Wilds” in eastern Ohio yesterday.  It’s a sanctuary where many endangered animals roam in protected pastures.   So Thursday, instead of “deep diving” into the results, I was in the back of a beat-up pickup truck, getting “up-close and personal” with exotic species.

 We literally fed a rhinoceros in a field, and scratched her back. We dodged ostrich nips, hand-fed lettuce to a giraffe with their amazingly long tongues, and learned from afar about a species of beautiful animals called Przewalski’s Horses.  They cannot be tamed, and while they are gorgeous, almost cuddly, they have a secret weapon.  Unlike other horses-species, these beautiful “ponies” have canine teeth, able to rip and shred.  And they have no compunctions about using them.

The Numbers

So here’s the figures (of figures lie and liars figures).  When the notoriously slow California vote is projected to completion, almost 160 million Americans voted.  (Current prognosticators are ignoring at least seven million votes not yet counted).  That’s about four million more than 2020.  So let’s dispel the first fallacy:  more Americans voted in 2024 than ever before.  Donald Trump got about 4.5 million more votes than in 2020, and Kamala Harris about 1.7 million votes less than Joe Biden.  

And that dispels the second fallacy:  while this was a landslide in the electoral college, it was incredibly narrow when viewed through the prism of that old American principle; “one person, one vote”.   The difference is less than a million, a little over one half of one percent.

To put a finer point on it, Trump really won the election by 247,583 votes.  That the total of the difference in the “Blue Wall” states. And that’s a lot bigger difference than either Biden’s winning or Clinton’s losing result.

Of course, the voting margins don’t matter.  This is a winner take-all deal, just like when the Bengals gambled on a two-point conversion to beat the Ravens last night with 34 seconds left in the game:  score and win by one, fail and lose by one (they failed).  The Electoral College is like that too, no matter how narrow the popular vote, the winner take-all Electoral votes are awarded regardless of the gap.

Babies and Bath Water

My rough estimate:  Trump clearly motivated his voters to the polls.  And there was a “swing” from 2020. While Biden reached more of the white, working class voters, some turned to Trump this go-round.  And Harris performed well in the suburban vote, but didn’t deliver the urban vote the way Biden (or Obama) did.  

We hear all sorts of “Wednesday Morning Quarterbacks” giving advice to the Democrats about what they did wrong.  I have friends who are dead sure they have the answer, and angrily blame the intellectual or moral arrogance of the Democratic Party for the loss.  Others look at misogyny; that like Hillary Clinton, the headwinds for choosing Kamala Harris as President were too strong.  And still others want to blame Joe Biden, for not knowing he was getting too old to run for the job, soon enough.

All of those are true to some extent.  And I do think, that my Democratic friends, need to do exactly what the Republican Party did after the Romney defeat in 2012.  We need to do an “autopsy” of the 2024 election, and make  determinations for changes Democrats need to make.  But keep in mind, it really only comes down to a small sliver of voters in the large scope of things.  It’s no good “throwing the baby out with the bath water”.  We need numbers, we need time, we need, like the pathologist, to make dispassionate decisions about what happened.  And unlike the Republicans in 2012, we need to heed the results.

“Dispassionate” is not the mood of the day.  We are, right now, like the Przewalski’s Horses, ready to rip and shred, both Republicans, and our fellow Democrats.  Instead, we need to face our reality:  Donald Trump is President, and, if we weren’t lying before, our Democracy is in greater danger than any time in our history.   Sure we need to fix what’s broke, but we better be ready to stand together for what we believe.  

It might be our last stand.

It’s the day after the United States of America elected Donald J Trump President, once again.  Fitting; that the sun didn’t come up this morning.  Instead, it was a steady gray rain.  Like many millions of Americans, I can’t process the election results, yet.  But there are some “rules” that might help all of us.

1.  Don’t be embarrassed.  We lost; we lost when we HAD to win, we lost when we believed (and still believe) democracy is on the line.  But it wasn’t from being lazy, and it wasn’t from some failure in the campaigns.   Our brother and sister Americans who voted for Trump absolutely see something completely different than we do.  That’s just what it is.

2.  Hold you head up high.  You did all you could do.

3. Don’t judge.  I’ve heard it already:  it’s because she was a woman, or Progressives had too much to say in policy, or we defended the LGBTQ too much, or Democrats must completely start over.  Most of that is, what the kids call, “BS”.  We are far too close to the “scene of the crime” to have any perspective on what happened.  Wednesday morning “Quarterbacks” aren’t playing on Tuesday night for a reason.

4.  Stop listening to Kornacki.   And don’t hate him either. He is only the messenger.  He just reads the stats, he doesn’t make them.

5.   Don’t leave the country.  You’ll still be an American, whether you live in Costa Rica or Canada or Portugal.  Leaving the country won’t change your heart.  It will just take away your power to make a difference.

6.  Don’t drink to excess. Take it from me, the news is even worse when you’re hungover.

7. Gird yourself for the future.  First, do what you need to do to protect yourself and your family; legally, emotionally and financially.  Start small with that.  More global issues come later.  

8. It’s too soon to “Resist” again, but we can’t wait for a “White Knight” to come to our rescue.  That’s what they do.  Besides, as President Kennedy said: “let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God’s work must truly be our own.”  

We aren’t leading, yet, but we will again.  Saving Democracy is truly our own task now.

Anyone who was around me as a coach, know that for the “big meets” I always had a score sheet in my back pocket. It was an “itemized” list, event by event; listing, the best we could do and the minimum we “had” to do.

So it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’ve got a score sheet for tonight’s election results. Here it is!!

Here’s a link to a full sized version.

Have a good night – and may the best WOMAN WIN!!!!!

(ah-lee-ah, ack-ta, esst)

Caesar at the Rubicon

We’ve all played boards games, when it comes down to a throw of the dice.  You might need a five, but there’s no controlling that.  No matter how you hold, twist or turn, once the die leaves your hand, there’s no predicting the outcome.  It’s “alea iacta est” in Latin, the die is cast.  Whatever is going to happen, will happen.  

The phrase comes from Julius Caesar.  He was with his Legion, north of the Rubicon River, when the government in Rome ordered him to leave his army there and come home.  If he crossed the Rubicon with his troops, he was in rebellion against the Republic.   Caesar determined to challenge the government, and the Legion crossed the river.  As he crossed, he said, “alea iacta est”.  You probably know the rest of the story, Caesar became dictator of Rome, was assassinated, and ultimately the Republic fell and the Roman Empire began.

Out of My Hands

“Alea Iacta Est” became a traditional phrase for me in my first year at Denison University.  In those days, a half-century ago (oh my gosh), passing most college courses depended on two tests, the mid-term and the final exams.  After three months of attending class, those made all the difference.  So studying was a big deal, with days of preparation for a timed two hours of writing in “blue books” for each class.  My friends and I would spend late nights in vacant classrooms, smoking cigars (it was legal inside back then), reviewing and cramming texts and legal pads full of notes.  

And finally, in the early morning hours when the last questions were answered (and the last cigars put out) we were done.  As we walked back to our dorm at the far end of campus, we stopped outside of the Chapel, looked out over darkened Granville, and tossed pennies into the woods far down the hill, saying “Alea Iacta Est”.  The die was cast; no more studying to do, just a few hours’ sleep and show up in class with sharpened pencils.

Fifty Years

The phrase has followed my life.  After months of political campaigning, through the sleepless nights leading to the Monday before election day, there was a final moment:  nothing more to do – “alea iacta est”.  Then later, as a coach, after months of careful preparation, after the last practice (when rest was as important as prep), again, “alea iacta est”.

So here I am, a half-century later, on the Monday before what seems to me the most important Presidential election in American history.  I am retired; no longer politicking, or teaching, or coaching.  What I do now is write.  I try to describe, persuade and educate.  Yesterday I made my final argument for Kamala Harris (Yes, But What About).

But, as those who know me will recognize, I’ve always have one more thing to say. Here it is:   I believe in America.  I believe in the ultimate wisdom of the American people. As Lincoln (a Republican) said, “… You can’t fool all of the people, all of the time”.  And I believe in the American experiment, the flawed but perfecting Constitution, that survived the Civil War and has, from the beginning, expanded the rights of our citizens.   Even with setbacks and mistakes, we continue to become “…a more perfect union” (Madison, Democratic/Republican).

Believe in America

No matter the outcome, “(T)he American people, in their righteous might, will win through” (FDR, a Democrat).  To use an old coaching expression, “the sun will come up”, no matters who wins on Tuesday (some old coach or campaign manager).  And what we will have to do as Americans to save our “experiment in democracy” depends on the outcome.  Either way, “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country” (JFK, a Democrat).  If we fail this test, there will be a whole lot to do.  

We’ve had nine years to study, and now it’s time.  Time to take the test and see our grade.  I’ve cast my vote, and this is the last essay before election day.

It’s not the wee hours of the morning, and I’m not throwing pennies at the neighbors.  But “Alea Iacta est”; the die is cast, for me, and for America.  Now we just wait for the results.

Disqualified

It’s almost impossible for me to think about another Trump Presidency.  The Insurrection of January 6^th, 2021 is absolutely disqualifying.  I find it a failure of the Biden Administration and Attorney General Merrick Garland  for not holding  Trump accountable for that, at least, not yet.  Beyond that, a President who openly admires dictators:  Putin, Xi, Kim, Orban, and Erdogan, should tell us exactly what we need to know about his “style” of government.  That’s another automatic disqualification from holding powerful office in the world’s greatest democracy.  

An American leader who routinely, chronically, and habitually lies should not be President. And finally, a man who is clearly an abuser of women, should not be in our highest office.

So for me, it’s tough to get to an “issues” conversation.  Trump is damned far beyond any “favorable” stand on the issues allows.  But I have friends, people who I think of as “good folk”, who will acknowledge all of the above, then say, “Yes, but what about?”  And they then follow with a litany of “issues” where they see Democrats as failing, and Trump as “the answer”.  So let me try to deal with a few of those issues for them.

The Economy

By most measures:  the stock markets, current inflation, current employment, even wages; the Biden administration has done a remarkable job.  It’s easy to have a memory gap of the Covid pandemic, but it did wreak havoc on the world’s economy.  Trade came to a near-standstill, unemployment was high, and there were supply shortages from toilet paper to construction lumber.  First Trump, then Biden realized that the government would need to “carry” the economy for a while.  There were all of the PPP business loans, school and government monies, and, of course, the personal government checks for thousands of dollars (first accompanied by a letter with a “huge” Trump signature.)

And that process worked, better than any other country in the world.  But with all of that “government money” pushed out there was an inevitable and foreseeable consequence:  inflation.  The Biden administration first goal was to get Americans back to work.  The Infrastructure Plan, the Inflation Reduction Act which worked on climate issues, the American Rescue Plan which cut child poverty in half, the Chips Act committing America to building modern electronic necessities; all put people to work and made our lives better.

The second Biden goal:  to get control of inflation without the “feast and famine” of a recession.  Many economists said it wasn’t possible, but here we are today.  Yes, prices are higher than in 2019, but so are wages.  Yes, we went through a time when price increases were stunning; but the current inflation rate is under three percent.  Biden “landed” the “boom economy” without a recession.  And all of that happened in the past four years – Covid economic fall, recovery, boom, inflation, control.  There’s been a steady hand on the “tiller”, and Harris will continue that process.

Human Rights

 I firmly believe Americans should have the right to make their own moral choices.  Some of my friends believe in the “right to life”, and I respect their right to do so.  What I don’t respect is the claimed right to tell others how they should believe in that moral issue.  Donald Trump directly led to the stripping away of that intimately personal choice.  And it’s not only with abortion; he represents a Nation where LGBTQ Americans will have to “hide in the closet”.  Our modern science reveals that gender is a complex mix of genetics and biology.  The horrific Republican ads showing young teens sitting on hospital gurneys waiting for a “sex change”, are so opposite reality, it’s amazing that they have any impact at all.  But they do.  

Trump espouses a radical theory that says there is “no distinction/no advantage” in American gender, race, or ethnic identity.  All Americans know that isn’t true.  The Trump administration not only tried to stop programs that advanced equality regardless of differences, they affirmatively defend the right of “white males” to maintain a political and economic advantage.  Those who agree with him, are clinging to a past where America was a “white majority” nation.  The near-future is different, no matter who wins the Presidency.  

We are a nation of many cultures, genders, races, religions and ethnicities; and will become more diverse not less.  It is the duty of the President to pursue “E Pluribus Unum”; out of many, one.  Donald Trump represents division not unity, discrimination, not inclusion, the past, not the future.

Immigration

Could Biden have acted sooner to control the Southern Border?  Yes, but if he did, it would have destroyed any possibility of a legislative agreement for a long-term solution.  And Biden/Harris actually achieved a “global” deal, even with the wide divide between the political parties.  The US Senate voted for a “tough” border deal, and the US House of Representatives was poised to do so as well.

That is, until Donald Trump intervened, demanding that his acolytes in the House “tank” the deal, in order to preserve the issue for his campaign.  And the obedient House members did exactly that.

Afterwards, the Biden/Harris Administration took what executive actions they could, and the situation at the border improved.  But the opportunity to make a long-term solution to the Southern border was destroyed by the political needs of one man:  Donald Trump.  He put his own needs ahead of the Nation, another act that should be disqualifying.

The World

The Biden administration has strengthened American alliances throughout the world.  NATO is stronger than ever before, and helping Ukraine hold a expansionist Russia at bay without committing American forces.  We are checking Chinese expansion, and expanding American influence.  

What about Afghanistan?  Biden followed Trump’s plan, that released thousands of Taliban fighters back into the field.  He made a choice; get out of a decade’s long losing struggle in the country, or redouble our troop forces and efforts.  The US withdrawal was ugly, but the price to be paid for decades of failed US strategy.  Biden “bit the bullet” for the Nation.

What about the Middle East?  The United States is sending mixed messages.  The Administration is defending Israel’s right to respond to the October 7^th attack, and balancing Iranian responses against Israel.  But there is a strong force in our Nation who are telling Netanyahu to do whatever he wants to the Palestinians, without the “check” of American restriction.  That force is Donald Trump and his allies, who told Netanyahu to ignore Biden and wait for Trump’s election.  They have intentionally undermined US strategy.

The Closer

Has the Biden/Harris Administration been perfect?  Of course not.  Do they represent a full embrace of a changing America?  Absolutely.  But the most important fact is that Kamala Harris is committed to the American Democracy, to the US Constitution, and to the freedoms we profess to believe in.  Donald Trump represents an authoritarian threat greater than any the United States has ever faced.  

And that threat “trumps” all of the other issues.  We can come back to argue about economic changes, foreign policy, and how America will handle our future; later.  Right now, we have to defend democracy – and the only way to do that is to send Donald Trump home, and elect Kamala Harris.