Learned from the Best
Pete Nix was my first principal. He hired me as a teacher, for my first and only teaching job (it only lasted thirty-six years). Mr. Nix (he wasn’t Pete until much later) was an intimidating man; a son of the South, a Marine, a successful wrestling coach turned administrator, and the Principal hired to bring order to an out-of-control school. I learned a lot from him: how to control a classroom, the civic responsibility of being a teacher, and to stand up when “Dixie” was played. And Mr. Nix introduced me to many of the “sayings” of the past. One that still sticks is when I fell through a window in my classroom (while teaching a class – don’t ask); “Ohh, I really wish you hadn’t done that!!”.
Another phrase that he often used, especially to those younger teachers who hoped to dazzle him with statistics was, “Figures lie, and liars figure”. I keep that in mind a lot, especially in these days of unlimited access to any figures you need to find – just Google it.
Too Close
I’m awash in figures today, five days before election day, and probably ten days before we know the final results. All of the figures I’m seeing, polls and polling averages; early voting turnout data, indicate that this is going to be a very close election. And that’s a bad thing.
First, it’s a bad thing because it might mean that we are headed to another four years of a Donald Trump Presidency. And that’s not just about Trump himself; he is also a “useful tool” (not idiot) for all sorts of forces, both internal and foreign. Need an example: look at the United States Supreme Court today. They are well on the way to a Federalist Society sponsored, once in a century conservative Constitutional shift in American law and life. It happened in the last term.
Which is another “bad thing” about a narrow election. Because even if Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win the electoral vote, the Trump Campaign has made it clear they intend to contest the results. In 2020 that was kind of a “fool’s errand”, losing sixty of sixty-one cases from local to Federal courts. And the US Supreme Court, wisely, stayed out of the fray, refusing to hear appeals on the issue.
Thumb on the Scale
But Wednesday, the Supreme Court made it clear that they will intervene in the 2024 election. Six days before this election, the Court ruled that the Commonwealth of Virginia could disqualify as many as 1600 “possible” non-citizens from voting. The Court rejected the Congressional mandate to ban voting purges within sixty days of elections, and said Virginia’s authority to determination qualifications to vote is “more important”. (Keep in mind, it has already been demonstrated that many of those 1600 are in fact US Citizens, but they may be disenfranchised anyway). And, not surprising, the Court decision was the six Republicans to three Democrats.
The whole point: the Trump Campaign already has undercut confidence in the election process. They are poised to legally (and perhaps not so legally) attack an outcome not to their liking. And while Democrats have a “secret weapon”, highly successful attorney Marc Elias and his massive legal firm, we all now know that the Supreme Court is willing to be a part of a post-election charade. They’re likely to put a thumb on the scale. They already have.
And then there’s Trump’s “little secret” with Speaker Mike Johnson, likely a ploy to disrupt electoral votes at the state level. That would deny Harris the votes she earned, then try to force the Presidential choice into the House of Representatives for a “tie-breaking” vote. (Under the Constitution, the House breaks a Presidential tie by a process where each state gets a single vote. Even if Democrats control the House, by-state there is a Republican majority.) Rather than go into further detail now, if that happens you can be sure I’ll have all of the “nuts and bolts” available.
Figurin’
So that’s all the bad news. A close election might mean Trump wins, but even if Harris/Walz eke-out a victory, there’s still likely to be a post-vote struggle for the Presidency. But I’m not so sure that this really is going to be a close election. Maybe I’m “figurin’” (I’m not intentionally lying); but here’s some of the indicators I look at that make me more hopeful for a wider Harris win.
Let’s start with polling. Trump won Ohio by eight percent in 2020 and 2016. The turnout was 66.5% in 2016, and 74% in 2020. Almost 2 million Ohioans have already voted, with 300,000 absentee ballots still to be returned and four more days of early voting. That’s likely to top 2020’s three million absentee/early voting by a lot, and would be more than half of the 2020 turnout. A larger turnout benefits the Democrats. Right now Ohio is polling at six percent for Trump, taken by the noted Republican leaning pollster Trafalgar. Trump may still win Ohio, but not by as much. That would be good news for Senator Sherrod Brown who needs to run ahead of Harris.
Trump won Kansas in 2020 by 15%. The latest polling today puts him up 5%. And if the margins are so much closer in Ohio and Kansas, then all of those “narrow” swing states , maybe, aren’t so close after all.
More Figurin’
Women are out voting men, and between gender and abortion, it’s likely more they are voting for Harris. Meanwhile, Trump is doubling and tripling down on the “Bro Vote”, the 18-35 white male vote. But they are traditionally one of the least dependable voting groups, and often don’t show up.
The 2022 polling failed to “model in” America’s reaction to the Dodd’s’ Decision on abortion. The expected “Red Wave” ended up being a “Red Trickle” and actually a pretty good day for Democrats. Not much has changed, and there’s a woman on the ticket. If that’s not part of current polling models, then all bets are off.
And finally, there’s the intangibles: here in Trump Country, there are few Trump/Vance signs, where once they were as plentiful as the falling maple leaves. But get into Harris town, and there’s a ton of signs, banners, and flags. Democrats are heavily invested in Get Out The Vote, while Republicans aren’t, instead putting their money in “Contesting the Election Results” stuff. If it really is close, the best GOTV wins.
It’s all variables; but as many of the commentators say; I’d rather be Harris than Trump. And what can we do about it? Turnout wins – GOTV!!! Get others to vote, go out and vote, Get Out the Vote!!! After all, it is a simple figures game.
