Month: October 2024

Learned from the Best

Pete Nix was my first principal.  He hired me as a teacher, for my first and only teaching job (it only lasted thirty-six years).  Mr. Nix (he wasn’t Pete until much later) was an intimidating man; a son of the South, a Marine, a successful wrestling coach turned administrator, and the Principal hired to bring order to an out-of-control school.  I learned a lot from him: how to control a classroom, the civic responsibility of being a teacher, and to stand up when “Dixie” was played. And Mr. Nix introduced me to many of the “sayings” of the past.  One that still sticks is when I fell through a window in my classroom (while teaching a class – don’t ask); “Ohh, I really wish you hadn’t done that!!”.  

Another phrase that he often used, especially to those younger teachers who hoped to dazzle him with statistics was, “Figures lie, and liars figure”.  I keep that in mind a lot, especially in these days of unlimited access to any figures you need to find – just Google it.

Too Close

I’m awash in figures today, five days before election day, and probably ten days before we know the final results.  All of the figures I’m seeing, polls and polling averages; early voting turnout data, indicate that this is going to be a very close election.  And that’s a bad thing.

First, it’s a bad thing because it might mean that we are headed to another four years of a Donald Trump Presidency.  And that’s not just about Trump himself; he is also a “useful tool” (not idiot) for all sorts of forces, both internal and foreign.  Need an example:  look at the United States Supreme Court today. They are well on the way to a Federalist Society sponsored, once in a century conservative Constitutional shift in American law and life.  It happened in the last term.

Which is another “bad thing” about a narrow election.  Because even if Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win the electoral vote, the Trump Campaign has made it clear they intend to contest the results.  In 2020 that was kind of a “fool’s errand”, losing sixty of sixty-one cases from local to Federal courts.  And the US Supreme Court, wisely, stayed out of the fray, refusing to hear appeals on the issue.

Thumb on the Scale

But Wednesday, the Supreme Court made it clear that they will intervene in the 2024 election.  Six days before this election, the Court ruled that the Commonwealth of Virginia could disqualify as many as 1600 “possible” non-citizens from voting.  The Court rejected the Congressional mandate to ban voting purges within sixty days of elections, and said Virginia’s authority to determination qualifications to vote is “more important”.  (Keep in mind, it has already been demonstrated that many of those 1600 are in fact US Citizens, but they may be disenfranchised anyway).   And, not surprising, the Court decision was the six Republicans to three Democrats.

The whole point:  the Trump Campaign already has undercut confidence in the election process.  They are poised to legally (and perhaps not so legally) attack an outcome not to their liking.  And while Democrats have a “secret weapon”, highly successful attorney Marc Elias and his massive legal firm, we all now know that the Supreme Court is willing to be a part of a post-election charade.  They’re likely to put a thumb on the scale.  They already have.

And then there’s Trump’s “little secret” with Speaker Mike Johnson, likely a ploy to disrupt electoral votes at the state level. That would deny Harris the votes she earned, then try to force the Presidential choice into the House of Representatives for a “tie-breaking” vote.  (Under the Constitution, the House breaks a Presidential tie by a process where each state gets a single vote. Even if Democrats control the House, by-state there is a Republican majority.)  Rather than go into further detail now, if that happens you can be sure I’ll have all of the “nuts and bolts” available.

Figurin’

So that’s all the bad news.  A close election might mean Trump wins, but even if Harris/Walz eke-out a victory, there’s still likely to be a post-vote struggle for the Presidency.  But I’m not so sure that this really is going to be a close election.  Maybe I’m “figurin’” (I’m not intentionally lying); but here’s some of the indicators I look at that make me more hopeful for a wider Harris win.

Let’s start with polling.  Trump won Ohio by eight percent in 2020 and 2016.  The turnout was 66.5% in 2016, and 74% in 2020.   Almost 2 million Ohioans have already voted, with 300,000 absentee ballots still to be returned and four more days of early voting.  That’s likely to top 2020’s three million absentee/early voting by a lot, and would be more than half of the 2020 turnout. A larger turnout benefits the Democrats.  Right now Ohio is polling at six percent for Trump, taken by the noted Republican leaning pollster Trafalgar.  Trump may still win Ohio, but not by as much.  That would be good news for Senator Sherrod Brown who needs to run ahead of Harris. 

Trump won Kansas in 2020 by 15%.  The latest polling today puts him up 5%.   And if the margins are so much closer in Ohio and Kansas, then all of those “narrow” swing states , maybe, aren’t so close after all.

More Figurin’

Women are out voting men, and between gender and abortion, it’s likely more they are voting for Harris. Meanwhile, Trump is doubling and tripling down on the “Bro Vote”, the 18-35 white male vote.  But they are traditionally one of the least dependable voting groups, and often don’t show up.

The 2022 polling failed to “model in” America’s reaction to the Dodd’s’ Decision on abortion.  The expected “Red Wave” ended up being a “Red Trickle” and actually a pretty good day for Democrats.  Not much has changed, and there’s a woman on the ticket.  If that’s not part of current polling models, then all bets are off.

And finally, there’s the intangibles:  here in Trump Country, there are few Trump/Vance signs, where once they were as plentiful as the falling maple leaves.  But get into Harris town, and there’s a ton of signs, banners, and flags.  Democrats are heavily invested in Get Out The Vote, while Republicans aren’t, instead putting their money in “Contesting the Election Results” stuff.  If it really is close, the best GOTV wins.

It’s all variables; but as many of the commentators say; I’d rather be Harris than Trump.  And what can we do about it?  Turnout wins – GOTV!!!  Get others to vote, go out and vote, Get Out the Vote!!!  After all, it is a simple figures game.

Closing Argument

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, “This is not the end, but it is the beginning of the end.”  Last night Vice President Kamala Harris gave her “closing argument”, her final attempt to persuade Americans to support her candidacy.  On Sunday, former President Trump did the same, at Madison Square Gardens.  From here on in, it’s the last sprint to the finish; desperately trying to get every single supporter to the polls.  Persuasion falls to the wayside, now it’s all about encouraging, cajoling, and enticing all “their folks” to vote.

Both candidates carefully chose their venues.  Trump picked Madison Square Gardens in New York City.  It’s an “all-Trump” venue, one of the most venerable and well-known in the world.  For a man who “made his bones” in Manhattan, filling the Garden is a goal in and of itself. While many “knowing commentators” questioned why Trump would come to the center of Democratic New York to make his plea, Trump knew well that “MSG” is a national setting.  And besides, filling it to capacity with “MAGA” loyalists (a little less than 20,000) in the heart of New York City sent his message:  “no blue territory is safe”.

On the other hand, Harris chose the Ellipse, in sight of the White House Oval Office, and where Trump gave his fateful speech sending the mob to  march on the Capitol on January 6^th.   It too is a “national” venue, even though the District is fully Democratic.  Her site choice underlined the decision Harris is asking America to make:  Trump represents the upheavals of the past, Harris the promise of the future.  And it also allowed the Harris campaign another subliminal “size” dig.  Trump had 50,000 on January 6^th for “it’s going to be wild”.  Harris’s crowd numbered near 75,000 last night.

Into the Darkness

So what did the former President offer Americans in closing?  Like his first inaugural address, Trump presents a dark view of a failing America, full of illegal immigrants taking “American” jobs and committing crimes.  And he told Americans to be afraid:  of the “brown person” down the block, for their child going to school (they might come back a different gender), of the coming multi-cultural America.  Instead, Trump offered the “safety” of America that looks like the 1950’s.  It was his original message back in 2016, and little has changed (one of my first essays from 2017, Trump World and the Beaver).  It’s just darker, more desperate, and more violent.

How does Trump see the Democrats?  They are “the enemy within”; subject to every crude and profane insult imaginable.  Their leaders should be in jail:  “Lock them up!!!”.  There is no unity in the Trump message.  It’s we win; you lose, and we take what we want. It’s difficult to see the entire extravaganza at Madison Square Garden as “persuasive”.  The message is the same as the one he gave on the Ellipse that fateful morning of the Insurrection:  “We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”  It was a call to arms for his supporters, not an outreach to those unsure Republicans how might still be persuaded (Oh Lindsey, We Thought We Knew Ye).

The Big Tent

On the Ellipse last night, Harris started by holding a mirror up to the Trump Campaign.  She presented Americans with a vision:  one of the two candidates would, in ninety days, be sitting at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office over her shoulder.  She highlighted the chaos of the past, and the dark future, what a Trump authoritarian consolidation of power for four more years might mean.

Then she went on to explain her vision for America. She finally made a clear difference between the Biden Presidency and a Harris Administration.  Harris explained that it was a matter of “missions”.  The Biden/Harris mission was to recover from the pandemic, revive the economy, and then “land” it from a looming recession (mission accomplished).  The Harris/Walz mission is different:  it’s to enhance the life of working and middle class Americans.  Harris offers an array of changes from tax cuts to child benefits to housing incentives.  And she has plans to deal with the many problems America set aside as we’ve centered on our internal conflicts.

She offers an America of diversity, where folks can make their own decisions, about their bodies, their sexuality, and  their political views.  Harris promises to be a President that can listen to all sides; not just “her supporters”.   Her candidacy is a “big tent”, from Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez to Liz Cheney, Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney.  Her final message was: join us for a future together.

There are six days until election day.  Fifty million Americans, including Jenn and I, have already cast our votes.  There are nearly 170 million registered (out of 244 million who could vote).  In 2020, over 158 million voted, the most ever.  We are racing to the “finish line” that vague deadline when, finally, all the ballots are counted. That will be sometime in the next few weeks.   And then…we will see.

Living in DC

It was mid-January of 1977.  After a fall of campaigning for Jimmy Carter, I went to Washington, DC to celebrate the Presidential Inauguration with friends from the campaign staff.  There was the actual swearing-in on one of the coldest ceremonies in history, the parade (I think I was in a local bar), the inaugural ball with the Charlie Daniels Band and Jimmy and Roselyn dancing on the stage, and fireworks over the Mall watched from a warm apartment in Arlington.  

But I wasn’t there to take a job in the Carter Administration.  The next day I became an actual resident in the District. I moved with three other guys into “double” dorm room at American University.  I got a top bunk. And I was still enrolled at Denison University.  But this second semester I was in the Washington Semester program; an intense study of American politics with students from all over the Nation.  

Washington Life

We did hands-on work:  seminars with Supreme Court Justices  (Justice Rehnquist wore Hush Puppies), and leading members of Congress and executive branch officials.  We also found  internships in politics or government.  I used my personal campaign connections to work as a legislative intern in Congressman Tom Luken’s (D- Cincinnati) office on Capitol Hill.

Living in the District was a very different experience.  In Cincinnati, if you were with a bunch of strangers, you could always strike up a conversation about the Reds or the Bengals. Now here in Columbus, it’s almost mandatory to have a working knowledge of Ohio State Football.  But in Washington, the general “topic of conversation” was government and politics.  You could sit on the bus and bring up the latest controversial bill on the floor of the House, or which foreign policy issue was critical, and even the guys in the back had an opinion.

At the Center

And at the center of all of those discussions was the Washington Post.  It was the “paper of record” for the Federal government. And it was the home of Woodward and Bernstein, the men who brought Nixon’s felonies to light.  Even before that, it was the Post (and the New York Times) who went to the Supreme Court to publish the Pentagon Papers. They revealed a concerted Defense Department plot to lie to the American people about the Vietnam War.  

I went to see All the President’s Men, the Redford and Hoffman movie about Woodward and Bernstein.  After the movie, even I was looking over my shoulder in parking garages, waiting for Deep Throat.   The Post covered government and politics like local sports.  It was mandatory reading on the commute to Capitol Hill.

When I left Washington in the spring, I still was able to get the Post in the Cincinnati Congressional office.  But come fall when I went back to Denison to finish my college education. I had to say goodbye to my daily “fix” of the paper.

It was always a great joy when I went back to Washington, able to wake up to the Washington Post.  And while the New York Times became available for delivery here in Pataskala, it was never the same.  The Times is like a textbook assignment, 15,000 words of every arcane detail.  The Post is like a giant “sports page” of politics and current events;  scores, highlights, and projections for the next “game”.  

The Post Today

Finally, I was able to get the Washington Post  app on my phone.  It’s not the same as getting “ink on my fingers”, but I can get some of the old feel.  So Saturday, it was with great dismay that I read that the “newspaper of record”, the one with a masthead reading, “democracy dies in the darkness”, determined not to endorse a Presidential candidate.  

That was a shock: the Post, as usual, has been out-front in exposing the flaws and failures of Donald Trump.  Later “reporting” on the Post itself revealed that the Editorial Board was prepared to endorse Kamala Harris for President.  It was the owner, billionaire Jeff Bezos of Amazon fame, who stepped in to stifle his flagship media outlet. 

It would be easy to join with thousands of Americans who cancelled their Post subscriptions.  And I did join the hundreds who wrote scathing letters to the Editor (mine not published so far).  I was specific, calling out the cowardice of Bezos, the second wealthiest man in the world.  Hard to imagine that Bezos is afraid of losing government business, as if a couple of billion dollars in sales might “hurt” a man worth $211 billion.  But there it is.

Fear Itself

I’ve already written about the dangers of Trump authoritarianism (History Lesson).  We can worry about mass deportations, criminal prosecutions, and government restructuring if Trump is elected.  But the less discussed consequence is the aura of fear authoritarians create.  It’s not just the affirmative action Trump might take, but the possibility of that action that causes others not to act.  

We know what intimidation is.  It’s the whispered conversation in the restaurant, afraid of being overheard.  It’s the lack of Harris signs or bumper stickers in rural communities, afraid of property damage.  That’s an authoritarian lesson too:  disagree and face the consequence.  It’s just too bad that Jeff Bezos, with all of his billions, his rockets to space and Amazon fulfillment centers scattered like leaves in the fall all over the nation; is intimidated as well.

I’ve expressed my huge disappointment to the Post, but I’ll keep my subscription.  The newsroom hasn’t been cowed yet.  No matter how the election turns out, there still needs to be some light in the darkness.  I hope that fear of retribution won’t snuff out that flame of truth. It’s already sputtering.

Senator from South Carolina

Lindsey Graham must be tired of being a Senator from South Carolina.  In the last two weeks, Lindsey has “come out” as Donald Trump’s biggest supporter.  He’s been on This Week with George Stephanopoulos. He’s been on Meet the Press. I missed him on CNN, but I bet he was there too.  Lindsey is trading on his friendships with the deceased Senator McCain and the very alive President Biden, to bolster his former reputation as a bipartisan “straight shooter”. He’s reaching out on “Mainstream Media” to those Republicans who can’t stomach Trump.  He’s trying to create (the magic word) a “permission structure” to let them come back to Trumpism.

And how is he doing it?  Air Force Reserve Colonel Graham (retired) is disparaging Four-Star Generals (retired) Mattis, Kelly and Milley.  All  have made strong statements against another Trump term in office.  Kelly has gone so far as to say that Trump matches “the definition of Fascism”.  But Graham’s trashed their reputations, saying they “failed” to stand-up armies in Iraq and Afghanistan when the US withdrew from those nations.  Of course, he takes no blame for those failures himself as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, nor does he allow any of the blame to fall on the former Commander-in-Chief, Trump.

Final Act

What does Lindsey want?  My guess; he sees himself as the next Secretary of Defense in the Trump Administration; a suitable “final act” for the sixty-nine year old retired Air Force Reservist.  Graham would probably be seen as the “solid-establishment guardrail” in a sycophantic second Trump Cabinet, a figure like Leon Panetta on the Democratic side.   Of course, he’s not.  Lindsey told us himself the week after John McCain died; “I’m no John McCain”.  And then he completed his about-face from a Trump opponent to his best golf buddy.  

He did falter in his loyalty on January 6^th.  He told Trump, and the world, “It’s been a good ride… but count me out ”.  But when he saw the Trump could shed all responsibility for the Insurrection, Graham was right back on the MAGA bandwagon.  And that’s where he really stands today.

Of course, there’s more self-interest in his statements than just a possible future cabinet position.  Even if Trump’s loses, Graham hopes that the race is close enough that it brings the Senate “over the threshold” and Republicans regain control.  Sure, it won’t be the “kinder-gentler” Senate of Mitch McConnell.  If the Republicans are in control, they’re likely to be dominated by MAGA forces, guys like Ted Cruz (GO COLIN ALLRED!!) and Josh Hawley.  

So again, Graham can play on his image as a “moderate” (much like McConnell’s false image of moderation) to regain his Chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee.   If he’s Chairman again, he’ll move ahead with the Federalist Society plan to radicalize the Judiciary in the style of Justices Alito and Thomas, and Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida. 

Disappointment

So why am I “picking” on Lindsey Graham?  After all, there are a whole plethora of disappointing Republican Senators; Tom Cotton of Arkansas, John  Kennedy of Louisiana and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin to name a few.  All were “reasonable” Republicans until Donald Trump came along.  All abandoned their “reasonableness” to jump on the MAGA bandwagon.  Graham is just one of many.

No, my “bone to pick” with Graham is a bit more personal.  Graham had too older “mentors” in the United States Senate, both men I highly respect.  One was John McCain, the “maverick” Republican Senator from Arizona and 2008 Republican candidate for President of the United States.  McCain was a conservative Republican, but one who was willing to visibly break with his party in order to follow his convictions.  

And McCain and Joe Biden were friends back from when McCain was a Naval Aviator assigned as a military advisor to the Senate.  Even though Biden and McCain often differed on domestic policy, they were aligned on most foreign policy, and good friends.  And they brought Graham into their relationships, becoming “the three amigos”.   My “beef” with Graham is not only did he break from both of his old “amigos”, but he continues to use his former relationship to further his own political fortune, even though he doesn’t honor their bipartisanship.

He’s been two-faced for a long time.  If he needs to be a Trump apologist, that’s his mistake.  But he shouldn’t be using his image as an “amigo” to help him do it.  It surely must disappoint Biden. Make no mistake, Graham was completely correct when he said: “I’m no John McCain”. That’s too bad for America. We could use him.

Expertise

It’s been a few years, but one of my history teacher areas of “expertise” was the Second World War.  That shouldn’t be a surprise.  Probably the reason I became a history teacher was growing up in a household where both parents fought in that War.  In fact, but for the Second World War, my parents would never have met.  So World War II is a “founding” pillar of my family, and my existence.

World War II was a “simple” war.  There were the “bad guys”, the Fascist dictatorships that were trying to conquer much of the world: Germany, Italy, and Japan.  And there were the nations trying to stop that conquest, the “good guys”.  All that was left of them after the first waves of conquest was the United Kingdom (and all of the British Commonwealth, from Canada to India to Australia); the Soviet Union (even though it too was an authoritarian dictatorship). And ultimately, two years after the war in Europe began, the United States joined the fight.

Both my parents responded to their Nation’s call to arms. Dad went to the US Army and Mom to the British Special Operations Executive.  Like the rest of the “Greatest Generation”, they were willing to sacrifice everything to stand for freedom.

The Treaty

My parents were born in 1918, the year that the “the war to end all wars”, World War I, ended.  It took a couple more years to hammer out the tough peace treaty with Germany.   The “agreement” at Versailles left Germany with a new democratic form of government. It was saddled with its own huge war debt, plus reparations to pay to the victors.  It put Germany in an economic crisis; one that the government tried to solve by just printing money.  Inflation soon wracked the nation, with literal suitcases of cash exchanged for a small bag of groceries.

By 1932 Germans were desperate, and faced with a choice in government.  There were the moderate, liberal, and Marxists parties, or there was the NSDAP, the Nazi Party.  In 1932 there more than a million members of the Nazi Party, in a German electorate of over 27 million.  So it wasn’t like the Nazis controlled everything;  they didn’t.  But they did offer a choice.  

It was simple:  give up freedoms, choose our single leader, and he will solve all of the economic problems.   Keep your freedoms, choose a democracy; and you will have to do the work. 

The Choice

The Nazis allied themselves with the major German manufacturers, who provided financing for their political efforts.  They offered industry a “controlled economy”, and military spending unencumbered by Treaty restrictions. And the Nazis gave the people simple answers to complex problems.  They created all kinds of scapegoats for Germany’s failings. It was the Communists or the handicapped or what today we would call LGBTQ folks.  And the Nazis created cultural/racial scapegoats. It was Black people or the Roma. But most significantly, they used the age-old European scapegoat:  it was the Jews.   

The German Constitutional Democracy had a parliamentary form of government, so the vote was for which party would have the most seats in the Reichstag, their parliament.  The Nazi’s got 37% of the vote, the moderate parties got 22%, and the Communist Party got 14%.  Minor parties got the rest.   The Nazis made deals with some minor parties, and gained control of the parliament.  Within a year, Adolph Hitler created a “fake crisis”. He burnt down the actual Reichstag building, and took control of both the Reichstag and the Presidency.  He declared himself  “Der Fuhrer” (the leader) of all Germany, and over the next few years, consolidated total control.  

The Consequences

So when the argument is made that Germans “elected” Hitler, it’s somewhat right.  But he never had a majority of the Nation behind him, that is, until he gained total control of media, industry, education, military and law enforcement.  Once that happened, there was no going back, and World War II, the Holocaust, and the near-total destruction of Germany was inevitable.   

When we ask how a civilized people like the Germans could fall into a Fascist dictatorship and the depravity of the Holocaust, this is the answer.  They lost faith in their democracy, and turned to the “easy” choice of a single leader who said he had “all” of the answers.

I Alone

Maya Angelou famously wrote:  “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”.  

When Donald Trump came down the “golden escalator” June 15, 2015 he said in part: “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

On July 21, 2016, Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination for President.  In his acceptance speech he said:  “Nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it”.  

He has his scapegoat, migrants, that he simply will not let go of. From Springfield to Aurora, he continues to create crises that don’t actually exist.  He also clearly believes, even after four years as President including a world pandemic, that “he alone can fix it”.   He has already told us that he will prosecute his enemies, scour the country for migrants to deport, lower taxes for his friends, and raise costs for everyone else with economy wrecking tariffs.

Trump already tried to burn his “Reichstag”, when he set a crowd of supporters on the US Capitol on January 6^th.  He hoped that they would be successful, so that he could call out the military to “put down” the insurrection,  and delay the transfer of power until he could alter the result of the 2020 election.  The fact that he tried and failed should  disqualify him, but the desire of both Democrats and Republicans to “return to normalcy” ultimately gave him a “pass”. 

Who He Is

We have heard story after story from the folks who were closest to the first Trump Presidency.  He constantly wanted to take singular action, only to be “calmed down” by those around him.  General Kelly, General Milley, General Mattis, Ambassador Bolton, are only a few that are on-record warning us of Trump’s reach for authoritarianism.  But this time, instead of those serving as guardrails, there will be nothing but enablers, a “murder of Stephen Millers”,  willing to do all of Trump’s bidding.  

When they ask how a civilized people like the Americans could fall into a Fascist dictatorship and the depravity of millions deported, this is the answer.  We lost faith in democracy, and turned to the “easy” choice of a single leader who said he had “all” of the answers.

At the Crossroads

America is at a crossroads, a tipping point.  It’s so serious that Liz Cheney and many other “regular conservative Republicans” are swallowing their policy differences for the single principle of American democracy.  Policy is one thing, an existential threat to our Constitutional system is another.  They stand against Trump.  

Winston Churchill once said:  “Democracy is the worst form of government, except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time”.    Democracy is hard work; it seems easier to let a single person, “I alone”, fix our problems.  In our current polarized times, it is difficult to work together, to find the “middle ground” where we can all move forward.  But it would be foolish to assume that one man can solve our problems.  Like Cheney and the rest, we need to stand for principle above policy and politics.    

When someday they ask how Americans responded to Fascism, our answer must be the same as my parents’ response.  We need to fight with all our being to protect democracy.  We can do all that, with one single action:  we can vote, and make sure Trump is defeated.

Electoral Process

Read the polls:  this might be the closest election in American history.  And, if you’re a normal Democrat, you are, how do you say:  freaking out.  That’s understandable.  We all woke up on Wednesday, November 9^th, 2016.  The Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder is real!  No Democrat ever wants to go through that again. And, I’m not here to allay your fears.  But I am here to show you the facts of this election process, and while your fears may be real, they aren’t as real as the fears the “other side” should have.

It would be so much easier if our electoral process was a simple democracy; a system where Americans vote, and the most votes win.  That way, “land” doesn’t hold sway over a portion of our process, as opposed to people.  But our Founding Fathers had their reasons. Some were practical, like getting the smaller states to sign onto the Constitution.  And some were nefarious, like using the Constitution to prop-up enslavement. Regardless, the Electoral College is our process, and it is very, very, very unlikely to change. Why?  Change would require multiple small states to vote against their own self-interest.   So the magic number isn’t 80 million votes ,or so, it’s 270 electoral votes.

As Ohio Goes

One sad part of our Electoral College system, is that minority votes in the Presidential election in each state are ignored.  Here in Ohio, there are millions of proud Democrats who will cast their vote for Vice President Harris.  Ohio used to be a “bell weather state” – now called a swing state.  As recently as twelve years ago, Ohio voted for President Obama’s re-election.  

But then the state went hard for Trump in 2016, and while 2020 was closer, it seems our “bell” is ringing Red for now, as least as far as Donald Trump is concerned.  (There are still Ohioans who think differently.  They hope that an overwhelming urban turnout combined with the gradually “purpling” suburbs might reverse the trend.  I hope so, and I’ll vote so. But, I’m definitely not holding my breath).  

So if trends continue, Ohio, is a “Red” state, and will vote for Trump. Hopefully those Ohio Democratic votes will make the difference for Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Ohio Supreme Court Justices and State Issue One.  But in all probability, all fifteen of Ohio’s electoral votes will go for Trump, regardless of how close the popular vote is in the state.   

Nothing we can do about that now.

So let’s take the Electoral College, and look at the “sure things”, Red and Blue.  

Red, Blue and Swing

So here’s the list:

Red:  Alaska, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (-1), Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah (24 States, 218 Electoral Votes).

Blue: Maine (+/-1), New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Wash. DC, Virginia, Illinois, New Mexico, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California (20 States, 226 Electoral Votes).

Those are pretty much set in stone.  If those “break away”, then all bets are off.

That leaves the following “swing” states as toss-ups.

Swing:  Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16) , Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Nevada (6).

In the election of 2000, Tim Russert of NBC News laid out the election as, “Florida, Florida, Florida”.  Then in the election of 2004, the saying went:  “As Ohio goes, so goes the Nation”. This election in 2024 boils down to one critical state:  “It’s all about Pennsylvania”. 

So there’s a mathematical “word problem”.   Harris needs 44 more Electoral votes to win.  Trump needs 52.  What combinations of swing states would “guarantee” their win?

The Blue Wall

The minimal basic Democratic strategy to the Presidency is called the “Blue Wall”.  Harris needs to win Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) – 44 Electoral votes.  She doesn’t need any more than that.  If you wondering why Harris is spending most of her time in those three states, particularly Pennsylvania (it would take two states to make-up the loss); that’s why.

But what if she were to lose one of those?  Then Harris has to look to the “Southern Strategy” to balance the loss, and win in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) or Nevada (6).  So, when you’re watching the election returns on Tuesday night (and maybe on into Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday) if you see the Blue Wall “holding” for Harris – get some sleep.  And if you see the “Southern Strategy” also going to Harris, it’s time to “Raise a Glass!!”

Run the Table

On the other hand, how does Trump win?  He has to “run the table”, the same way he did in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton.   First he has to break the “Blue Wall”, at least by winning one (most likely) Pennsylvania.  Then he has to win most of the Southern Strategy states.  The minimum for Trump:  Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Nevada (6).  That puts him at 275, and only the second President to serve “split terms”.  But here’s the rub:  If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania (19), but say, wins Michigan or Wisconsin, it’s still difficult to see a path that leads to his victory.   

And if he doesn’t win North Carolina or Georgia, there isn’t a likely path either, unless the entire map is flipped on its head.

Final Stretch

So if all things are really equal (I don’t think they are, the “mainstream” polling averages like Real Clear and 538 are slanted to Republican pollsters) then who’s got the advantage on the final stretch?

Republicans eschewed spending for get out the vote operations, instead putting their money into legal challenges of the voting outcome.  There are fewer Republican operatives on “the ground” in swing states, fewer offices, fewer volunteer operations, fewer people making phone calls or knocking on doors.  

On the other hand, Democrats have put massive funding into their “ground game”.  There are offices and staff in most counties in the swing states, and lots of volunteers to rally Dems to the polls.  And it seems like that energy is already making a difference; early voting is breaking records in many states, including here in Ohio, where almost a million people have already cast their ballots.  As Joe Biden discovered in 2020, bigger turnout favors Democrats.  Remember, Trump had the most votes for President of any candidate in history  in 2020, except for Joe Biden!!

Help the Cause

By the way, if you want to help Democrats, vote early.  Campaigns know that you’ve cast your ballot, and won’t spend money or effort to get you to – you already have!! (No, they don’t know who you voted for, just the fact you’ve already “made your bet” and can’t change it).  

And don’t worry Dems, we’ve got the “shenanigans” after the election covered too.  Marc Elias, election lawyer extraordinaire, has built a broad team to defend Democrats state by state and federally as well.  

President Obama says it best.  In rallies when he mentions Trump, at least for the first time, there are general “boos” from the audience.  Obama pauses, holds up a finger, then firmly states:  “Don’t Boo, VOTE!!”  If worrying would elect the President, we’d be fine.  But that doesn’t help, so “Don’t Worry, VOTE!!” then find a way to help. Persuade someone to support Harris, or make sure a supporter gets to cast their vote.

Do something – it’s the surest path to victory.

So this is a “Sunday Story”, on a Tuesday. There’s no politics today – just a story about cross country running, and a walk in the woods.

Championship Season

It’s October, and for me, a month of officiating cross country meets.   It’s a great month to be out in the “world”.  The leaves are turning, the temperatures are moderating, and the kids and coaches and crowds are “amped”.  October is “championship season” in cross country, when all the work, all the miles, all the “blood, sweat and tears” of months and even years of preparation comes to an end.  

There is no “bye” to the championships in cross country running.  Either you make the place, as a team or individual, or you don’t.  The “subjective” no longer matters; work, talent, sportsmanship, leadership, how fast you ran last week:  those are all great attributes.  But cross country in October is a cold, hard, objective sport.  The top teams and individuals go onto the next meet; the rest don’t.  It’s not even about “time”, it’s all about place in the race.

Stomping Ground 

Cross country doesn’t usually require a whole lot of officials.  To do a track meet in the spring, it requires at least five officials, and often fourteen to cover all the events.  In cross, most meets have three or four.  There are clerks to check-in the runners, starters to fire the gun, and a referee to make final judgments.  Once the gun goes off, the athletes are virtually unsupervised for most races.  But come October there are “umpires” stationed throughout the course, usually every few hundred yards.  So while officiating jobs are hard to come by in September, come October there’s a lot more to do. 

So this was my fifth meet in October, and my third meet in a row. Saturday was the High School District meet, and Sunday the Middle School State Invitational. But yesterday I officiated a “junior varsity” meet at my old stomping grounds, Watkins Memorial High School.  

This is the last meet for these athletes. They didn’t make the top seven varsity positions on their teams. But,  it’s one more opportunity to run, to set a personal best, and to end their cross country season on a high note.   And it’s on the unique running course at Watkins.  Of the three mile race, two miles are run on woods trails.   It’s beautiful:  the leaves are turning, the course is dry and fast, and unlike most cross country courses today that run around athletic fields; competition is in the forest and the pine trees.  

The Course

I’ve spent forty-six years helping to prepare those trails for runners.  There’s lots of folks that can claim a “piece” of Watkins, including years of Watkins cross country teams; coaches and parents who have raked and hauled lumber and gravel and mulch.  For me, my role is now the “roots”, carefully painted white to contrast to the dirt floor.   Kids still occasionally trip on the them, but it’s not because the roots were hidden.  “Did you see the root you tripped on?  Why yes, it was painted white, but I tripped anyway,” is a conversation I have on the finish line.

So I arrived early at Watkins, to take a walk in the woods before the buses pull in and the “Last Chance, Fast Chance” meet begins.  

My Walk

When I was the Dean of Students, the “discipline guy” of the high school; there were times when my dual role as Dean and Cross Country Coach intertwined.  While the woods are great for running, and for studying flora and fauna, they are also an attraction for students to do less esoteric activities.  I found kids smoking cigarettes or marijuana. I broke up fights that were planned over lunch in the cafeteria. And I really got mad at the kids who decided that the Watkins trails were a great place to “four-wheel” and tear things up.  

Bob Seger wrote a song called “Night Moves”, about sex in high school.  One line is; “Out past the cornfields where the woods got heavy…”.   The Watkins woods are equidistant between the high school and middle school, that’s 2700 “hormonally challenged” kids.  It shouldn’t be a surprise that while they probably don’t know Bob Seger or his song, some choose to go “out past the school road where the woods got heavy,” to work on their “Night Moves”, or more literally, their “Afternoon delights”.   

I wasn’t sneaking around the woods yesterday, I was just taking a walk on the familiar path, letting the fall changes soak in.  With the new high school and new school road, the “back” of the course is a lot more accessible than it used to be.  I ran into a few of the Watkins runners, commuting from the high school to get ready for the race.  Then I made the turn on the back trail, and headed towards the “boards” that were built to get over the swampy area just before the mile-mark.

Official-Official

I saw a young man sitting on a log, smoking a cigarette.  He looked up, aghast that there was some adult approaching his space.  Then I saw a young lady sitting on the dirt at his feet.  At first I just thought they came to enjoy an elicit smoke, and said; “You’re not my problem, I don’t work here anymore”.  Then I realized, the young lady didn’t have pants on.

It’s still not my problem, not part of my “officiating contract”, but soon hundreds of kids will be running the course, first checking out the path, then competing in the races.   It’s not the “hidden haven” this young couple was looking for.  My suggestion: time for them to get dressed and move along.  They answered in unison, “Oh Sh*t”, and I agreed, “Oh Sh*t, it’s time for you to go!!”.  Their afternoon delight was over.

Then I got my officiating gear on, loaded up my starter’s pistol, and went to work.  There were 200 some athletes competing in the “Fast Chance” invitational, a girls race and a boys race.  A parent from one of the schools actually thanked me for officiating.  I appreciate that; officiating can have its difficulties and parents can be less than friendly.  But as usual at Watkins, the races went flawlessly.  There was nothing to complain about.  The kids focused on making their last race the best – and from their expressions at the finish line, many of them did.

It was a perfect October day for a run in the woods.  

The Sunday Story Series

2021

• Riding the Dog  – 1/24/21
• Hiking with Jack – 1/31/21
• A Track Story – 2/7/21
• Ritual – 2/14/21
• Voyageur – 2/19/21
• A Dog Story – 2/25/21
• A Watkins Legend – 3/7/21
• Ghosts at Gettysburg – 3/14/21
• Lessons from the State Meet – 3/28/21
• More Lessons from the State – 4/4/21
• Stories from the Road – 4/11/21
• A Bear Wants You – 5/1/21
• My Teachers – 5/9/21
• Old Friends  – 5/23/21
• The Gift – 6/6/21
• Echoes of Mom – 6/20/21
• Stories of the Fourth – 7/3/21
• Running Memories – 7/25/21
• Lost Dog of Eldora – 8/1/21
• Dogs and Medals – 8/8/21
• The New Guy – 9/5/21
• Stories of 9-11 – 9/12/21
• The Interview – 9/26/21
• Night Moves – 10/3/21
• Funeral for a Friend – 10/11/21
• National Security – 10/24/21
• Boots on the Trail – 10/31/21
• Taking Care of Mom and Dad – 11/14./21
• Dogs Found and Lost – 11/21/21
• Watching Brian 12/12/21
• Stories from Shiloh – 12/19/21
• Team Trips – 12/26/21

2022

• Uphill, Both Ways  – 1/9/22
• Old Trophies – 1/30/22
• The Last Time – 2/7/22
• Olympic Miracles – 2/13/22
• Mind Numbing – 2/20/22
• Track Weather – 4/3/22
• What’s Missing – 4/11/22
• A Scouting Story – 4/17/22
• Waterproof Paper – 5/8/22
• Origin Stories – 5/22/22
• Origin Stories – Part Two 5/29/22
• Back at State – 6/5/22
• Out in the Country – 6/19/22
• Pataskala Downs – 7/4/22
• Car Stories I – 7/24/22
• Car Stories II  – 7/31/22
• Old Man Experience – 8/7/22
• Cross Country Camp – 8/14/22
• New to the Pack – 8/21/22
• Car Stories III – The Bus – 8/28/22
• A Day in the Life – 9/4/22
• Stupid Human Tricks – 9/18/22

2023

• Fair or Foul – 2/26/23
• Immigrant Story – 3/12/23
• Busy Season – 5/15/23
• Of Jeeps and Bucks – 5/28/23
• A Pole Vault Story  -6/11/23
• End of an Era – 6/25/23
• Paybacks – 7/2/23
• Graying in Pataskala – 7/17/23
• Being a Goat – 7/23/23
• Toy Truck – 8/20/23
• Medical Terms – 8/27/23
• Missing Margaritaville – 9/3/23
• The McGowan – 9/10/23
• Who’s Watching – 10/22/23
• The Saturday Before – 10/29/23
• A Tale of Turkey, and Dogs – 11/26/23
• Bruno’s Story – 12/3/23
• Out in the Country – 12/10/23
• Christmas Eve – 12/24/23

2024

• Rube Goldberg – 1/12/24
• Our Pataskala Kroger’s – 2/5/24
• A Sad, Sad, Dog – 2/11/24
• Singing in the Tornado – 3/3/24
• Your Safe Spot – 3/17/24
• Easter Dawn – 3/31/24
• Swarms – 4/14/24
• Lowest Common Denominator – 4/28/24
• Seniors – 5/12/24
• Season’s Over – 6/22/24
• Camp Morning – 6/30/24
• Jeeping – 7/7/24
• How Mondo Won the Gold and Started a Dog Fight (almost) – 8/6/24
• Fifty Years of the McGowan – 9/8/24
• A Walk in the Woods – 10/22/24

Accepting a Bribe

This story is as old as the Two Dollar Bill.  By the way, Two Dollar Bills, with Thomas Jefferson on the front and Monticello on the back, still show up occasionally.  In fact, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing still prints them, millions of them each year (BEM).

I know, I know; most of you are thinking that you haven’t even seen a One Dollar Bill recently.  My wallet, which always used to have “emergency cash”, is now filled in with plastic.  The local Kentucky Fried Chicken store recently gained notoriety as the first in Pataskala that doesn’t accept cash. That’s legal, by the way, (Federal Reserve). Cash is seldom a part of my life anymore.  But even when it is, it doesn’t often include a Two Dollar Bill.

Why not?  Why are Two Dollar Bills, “odd”?  The answer goes back to the late 1800’s.  Politics then was dominated by big city “Machines”, the most famous one called Tammany Hall in New York .  Government services were “transactional”; if a voter wanted fire service, or police protection, or the holes in the road fixed; they needed to demonstrate “support” for Tammany candidates.  In fact, it was an implicit contractual deal:  vote for Tammany, or don’t call the fire department.  In those days, the “contract” was sealed with a Two Dollar Bill (today worth the equivalent of Seventy Dollars).  But even in those “bad-old-days”, selling the vote was illegal, tantamount to accepting a bribe for an “official” act.

Everyone Knows

That particular denomination became symbolic for a crime, selling the vote.  When a consumer spent a Two Dollar Bill, “everyone knew” (to use a current Republican talking point) that they gave up that American privilege for cash.  So using the bill went “out of style”, so much so that in the mid-1960’s production was stopped for a while.  And today, many Americans see Two Dollar Bills as “rare” (really not) and hoard them right beside their can, or in my case, small barrel, of pennies.

Which brings us to Elon Musk, the wealthiest man in the world.  Here’s his newest “deal”.  It only applies to registered voters in the swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.  If they agree to sign his “First and Second Amendment” petition, supporting “freedom”, and implicitly, Donald Trump; they are entered in the daily drawing for One Million Dollars.  

What’s the point?  To be eligible, you must be a registered voter in a swing state, willing to support Trump (New York Post).  The “contract” is the signature on the petition, making you eligible to win One Million Dollars, awarded every-single-day until the election. 

Buying Votes 

Elon Musk has a net worth just shy of Two Hundred Seventy Billion dollars (Investopedia).  So giving away sixteen million just isn’t a big deal to him, less than one percent of his total wealth.  But most of us would agree, that a million dollars would be a transformative amount to “win”.  The question is, just like the Two Dollar Bills of yore; is this legal, or is he literally, buying votes?  In order to be eligible to win you must be a registered voter in a swing state.  Musk trying to “buy” votes, getting them to register and agree for the purpose of “winning” a million dollars.  So the answer to that question is, of course he is. 

 Musk points out: “I think this is kind of fun, and you know, it seems like a good use of money basically” (CNBC).  But it’s against federal law to bribe folks to vote or register to vote (USC §18, 597).  And, unlike a current Two Dollar Bill, a million dollars is a serious bribe.

Blurry Lines

We are in an era where the lines between legal and illegal campaign activities are blurred.  It used to be “allowed” to protest election results in Court, but “unacceptable” to lead protests and use violence to try to overturn the election.  That has gradually changed; in modern times starting with the “Brooks Brothers Riot” in 2000, when Republican operatives disrupted ballot counting in Florida in order to try to gain election for George W Bush. 

Literally billions of dollars will be spent on this year’s Presidential election, over $30 per vote for 150 million voters.  The “cash line” is blurred.   What was the stigma of the Two Dollar Bill, now becomes the privilege of using a vote to win a million.  It’s unlikely that Elon Musk will ever be held accountable for a crime; he can afford the lawyers to keep litigation going for years.  And if he is held accountable, maybe he’ll be fined a few hundred thousand dollars, “chump-change” to him.

But all that misses the point.  Our votes are supposed to be our “best judgment” for what’s good for us, and the Nation.  They shouldn’t be for sale, not for a million; and not even for a Two Dollar Bill.

Vote Early

Jenn and I voted early.  It’s not that we are worried about ballots being manipulated or lost.   And it’s not because we’re concerned about long lines at the polling place.  Here in Pataskala, our polling place is very efficient.  And for me, being “at the polls” is exciting, taking me back to my campaign days when election day meant months of intense work was, finally, on the line.  

No, we voted early this year because it takes a little bit of the pressure off.  There is so much at stake nationally, America is at such an inflection point; that it was just good to “do our part” as soon as we could. There are still things we can and will do to help our candidates, but the most important thing is done: we voted.  And voting early allows the candidates that we support to “take us off the list”.  Voting lists are constantly updated, so candidates know that there’s no reason to spend time or money on our house.  We’re in.

For President

I’ve spent years writing about the top of this ballot; the Presidential election.  For every reason I can think of, voting for Harris/Walz is a “no-brainer”.  I would have said the same about Biden/Harris, though I too had concerns about Joe Biden’s age.  So when the great “change” came, I was relieved:  both that Biden wouldn’t be an 86 year-old President, and that the Democratic Party found a way not to be “Democrats”, and tear themselves apart in the process of nominating Harris.  We did it right, from Biden’s grace to Michelle Obama’s speech, and Harris has been on a roll ever since.  

Harris is better for America: from the economy (Vote Your Pocketbook) to foreign policy, to the Supreme Court.  But most importantly, Harris is the choice that will allow the United States to continue the “Great Experiment” of our representative democracy (or Constitutional Republic).  I’ve written a whole lot about that issue, including We Need to Play  and Strange Bedfellows.

But what about the races “down ballot”?

Down Ballot

I voted Sherrod Brown for US Senate.  He’s a very special kind of politician, one whose core belief is in the working folks he represents.  Sherrod’s demonstrated that belief over and over again in his years in office, and has earned the votes of Ohioans with almost every action.  He’s a rarity; like his Montana friend John Tester, he’s actually cares.  As Sherrod states:  he’s concerned about working folks; both the ones who take a shower before work, and the ones who take one after.   His opponent is another rich guy who wants what his money can buy; power.  That’s something we’ve seen way too much of already.

And for Congress, I voted for Jerrad Christian.  Ohio is one of the most gerrymandered states in the Nation, and Christian has a long, long way to go to be competitive.  But his opponent, incumbent Troy Balderson, is a “foot soldier” for the Republican leadership, first Kevin McCarthy and now Mike Johnson.  He’s a “pawn” to be moved in the great Congressional power struggle, and done little to help the folks in the 12^thCongressional District.  Christian would be a fresh new face, though I’m not holding my breath for his victory.

State Legislature

For State Senate and State Representative I voted for the Democrats, Hubbell and Smith.  The gerrymandered districts means that my vote doesn’t really matter in these races, but I still want my voice heard.  However, I did pause on the Representative choice. A month ago, I followed the example of my old friend and boss Harry Gardner.  I wrote an actual, “snail-mail” letter to the government leaders about the chaos in the State Teacher Retirement System.  At best, I expected form letters in return, but heard only silence from the folks that represent me.  

That is, except for Republican Representative  Thad Claggett, who actually called and talked to me about it.   I was impressed, almost enough to change my vote.  But the Retirement System failures are huge, and I need more than just a conversation to earn my support.  I hope I will have a reason to vote “across the aisle” for him soon. (Yes, I have voted for Republicans, once in a “blue moon”.  I voted for those who earned it).

Gerrymandered

Ohio’s government is corrupted, our leaders concerned mainly with maintaining power and money.  That’s because Ohio is so gerrymandered, that most district race outcomes are predetermined before the candidates are even nominated.  Ohioans have tried to change that process again and again.  We thought we succeeded, but the politicians and the courts have found a way to alter or ignore the changes.  We are stuck with our current government, confirmed by ironclad district lines designed to enhance personal wealth and control.

So my votes for the Ohio Supreme Court and State Issue 1 (redistricting reform) are all bundled together.  State Issue 1 is the latest attempt to fix redistricting.  It’s a complex effort to keep the vested politicians out of the deal, and I’m not sure it will work.  But it’s definitely worth a try; anything is better than what we have now. It’s sponsored by the retired Republican Chief Justice of the Ohio Supreme Court, Maureen O’Connor.  She stood against her own party again and again to control redistricting while on the Court.  Now she’s put her prestige on the line with this reform measure.

And for that Issue to work, there needs to be a majority of the State Supreme Court that isn’t vested in the current system.  So I voted for three Democrats for Justice.  And more importantly, I voted against Republican Joe Deters, the former Hamilton County Prosecutor, appointed by Governor DeWine to the Court mostly because he was the best friend of the Governor’s son, Pat DeWine, himself a Supreme Court Justice.  It’s nepotism at its finest.

No Votes

And then were a series of “under-votes” where I chose not to vote at all.  Most were uncontested seats, where I didn’t have a positive reason to vote for the candidate.  I’m not just checking the box because it’s there, so I left those races unvoted.

The one exception was the uncontested candidate for State Board of Education.  Governor DeWine gutted most of the power of the Board last year, one more “brick in the wall” of corruption.   But candidate Karen Lloyd is a long-time retired teacher, willing to return to public service and try to help education.  Her service earned her the chance to make a difference, and my vote.

Local Issues

Judge David Branstool is running for re-election for Common Pleas Court.  He’s been a steady hand in Licking County for decades.  We need his solid service on the Bench as our County develops and expands.  And he’s a good guy, I’ve known him for years.  Voting for Branstool was a “no-brainer” too.

Then there’s a fire levy on:  who thinks it’s OK to vote against the fire department?  When you dial 9-11 you need them, right now.  In our growing community the department needs to grow to.  I wrote a whole essay on that this week, (A Local Thing).  And you just have to be cruel to vote against a tax for Senior Citizens (hey – that’s me; not cruel, but a Senior!!).

So that’s my ballot.  After all the essays, and all the conversations, I figured I need to “put my money where my mouth is”.  So here’s the payoff – my votes.  

My Ballot

• For President and Vice President – Kamala Harris/Tim Walz
• For US Senate – Sherrod Brown (Bernie Moreno)
• For US Congress – Jerrad Christian (Troy Balderson)
• For State Senator – Nick Hubbell
• For State Representative – Michael Smith (Thad Claggett)
• For Justice of Ohio Supreme Court – Michael Donnelly
• For Justice of Ohio Supreme Court – Melody Stewart  (Joe Deters)
• For Justice of Ohio Supreme Court – Lisa Forbes
• For Judge of the Court of Appeals – NO VOTE
• For Judge of the Court of Appeals – NO VOTE
• For Judge of the Court of Appeals – NO VOTE
• For County Commissioner – James Snedden
• For County Commissioner – Bryn Bird
• For Prosecuting Attorney – NO VOTE
• For Clerk of Court for Common Pleas – NO VOTE
• For Sheriff – NO VOTE
• For County Recorder – NO VOTE
• For County Treasurer – NO VOTE
• For County Engineer – NO VOTE
• For Coroner – NO VOTE
• For State Board of Education – Karen Lloyd (Eastern Ohio Teacher)
• For Judge of Court of Common Pleas – David Branstool 
• Issue 1 (Re-Districting Reform) – YES
• West Licking Joint Fire Tax – YES
• Senior Citizens Tax Renewal – YES

Taxes

2024:  many commentators believe this year is the critical turning point in American history.  It’s either the confirmation of the Trump Era, cementing his values into our national conscience, or the end of it.  So with all of that swirling above us, like a tornado that hasn’t quite touched down, yet; there are still other things to talk about on the 2024 ballot.  

Here in Pataskala (and much of Western Licking County) there’s an issue on the ballot that, if passed, will raise our taxes.  Like any tax increase, there’s lots of “friction” in the community.  There’s a good reason that most successful politicians don’t run on the platform of “more taxes”.  No one wants to pay more, especially the year after the County increased the appraised  property values for taxation.  My property tax bill already went up twenty-seven percent.  For some, it’s easiest to quote President George HW Bush:  “Read my lips, no new taxes”. That’s a statement he came to not only regret, but reverse.  

West Licking

Western Licking County is within twenty miles of downtown Columbus.  It was definitely “the country” when I moved “out here”, forty-six years ago, with a grain silo next to the railroad tracks, and a farm implement store along the main road.  But there was already harbingers of the future:  while the local high school was next to a corn field, a new suburban development was built across the street.  

Today, West Licking is suburbs and industry.  Along the National Road corridor, what once was alternating soybeans and corn, is now alternating distribution centers and factories.  The farmers along State Route 310 gave way to one suburban development after another, with three hundred more homes scheduled in the next decade, and multiple apartment buildings going up even as I write this morning.  

When Ohio’s political leaders talk about the new “Tech Corridor” here in Ohio, we are part of it.  Not only is the “Chip Act” Intel manufacturing plant being built just a few miles away, but all of the accompanying industry to support it is going up too.  One of the major solar panel production plants in the Nation is right down the street from my house.  And only about half of the “developable” land in our area is used, that means there’s a lot more growth to go.

Fire Department

When I first came to Pataskala, it had a volunteer fire department.  Every few days, a siren would go off, and the barber and the hardware store clerk and even some of the high school students would jump up, race to their cars, and report to the emergency.  They had a station in “downtown” Pataskala, behind the city hall, and a station in Kirkersville.  But with the exploding growth of our community, came an increasing need for a professional fire department, on duty for all emergencies.  Now, West Licking Fire has six stations, each staffed full-time (WLFD).  

Back in 1978, the fire department mostly dealt with house and barn fires, car wrecks, and personal emergencies.  Now, there’s still all that, but there’s industrial fires, and thousands of suburban homes in the back of complex developments.  What a few intrepid volunteers handled back then, now requires well-trained and professional firefighters.  And what might have been a few “runs” a day, I can tell you from direct experience is now full-time, with multiple squad runs, more fire runs, and other emergency runs from each of the six stations.  We live within “throwing distance” of a main road, State Route 16.  We hear the good folks of West Licking Fire, rushing to help, multiple times a day and night.

Expanding Needs

In any community, when you dial 9-11, you want an immediate response.  When we had a health emergency here, the squad arrived in five minutes, and saved a life.  We happen to be only a mile or so from “Station One”.  But part of great emergency service is having the whole community within “a mile or so” from responders.  So as the community continues to explode in development, the fire department needs to expand as well.  

Expansion, development, more people, more industry, more emergencies; it’s not something you want your Fire Department to “fall behind”.  There are some areas where public services often lag:  road development and public schools are two where expanding communities traditionally play catch-up.   That means that the areas are willing to be inconvenienced by over-crowded schools and traffic snarls until the “new folks” get to pay new taxes.  Even if you know that you’ll need a 2000 kid high school in a decade, the cost of building it is too high for the “1400 kid high school community” that’s here right now.  

Can’t Wait

But fire and emergency services can’t wait.  “Catching-up” means that people and property are in increased danger.  The price of waiting isn’t worth the cost in tax savings.  And it certainly isn’t worth the probable cost in lives.

West Licking is asking for a 4 mill increase in property taxes, that will raise an additional nine million dollars.  It will go to staffing and equipment, getting better ready to respond to the “next” emergency.  Like most Ohio property tax issues, it will never raise more than the dollar amount.  As more folks come into the community, that cost will be spread among them too.  So what costs $140 per $100,000 in property valuation this year, will decrease as the cost is “spread out” over more homes.  

When you dial 9-11, West Licking Fire doesn’t ask if you voted for the levy or not. They just come to put out your fire, or save your life.  And your own expectations don’t change either:  you call and expect them to show up, fast.  In our growing community, we want to make sure that continues to happen.  No matter who you choose at the top of the ballot this fall, vote YES for the West Licking Fire levy.

Run for the Roses

Horse racing isn’t simple, but the goal of horse racing is: to win the race.  There are all sorts of tactics to achieve that goal. I don’t know a lot about horse racing, though as a track coach, I do know about tactics.  Like horses, different athletes bring different strengths to the race; fast at the beginning, strong at the end, courageous from the back, comfortable in the lead.  And athletes, and horses, can get distracted in a race and lose focus on the goal: to win.  

With athletes I often give them “checkmarks”, points along the way where they need to re-check their tactics and their focus, and make sure they’re “mind’s right”.  With horses it’s not quite so easy; the jockey has to control the distractions along the way, and determine when it’s time to “go” for the finish (as the old Dan Fogelberg song goes:  Run for the Roses!). 

Eyes on the Prize

 One way to control the distractions for a horse, is to put blinders on them.  Blinders restrict their vision only to the front.  There’s an obscure car racing movie, Gumball Rally, that had only one famous line:  “The first rule of Italian driving, what’s behind me is not important”.  So too for the horses in the final stretch: make sure they’re not distracted.  Put blinders on them.

I was in a social media discussion the other day, and one of the participants stated that I had blinders on.  It  wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I took it that way.  Because we need blinders right now as we enter the last three weeks of the American Presidential campaign.  There are so many things to distract us, to waste energy and time on, to “lose our minds” about.  As the old civil rights slogan goes, we need to “keep our eyes on the prize”.  So put your blinders on.

Polls

I swore after 2016 I wouldn’t get sucked back into daily political polls.  2016 polling was just wrong:  understandably, I guess, Trump voters didn’t want to tell anybody.  But they did vote, and so what looked like an easy Clinton win, became a shocking Trump victory. 

And I did a pretty good job of ignoring polls in 2020.  The Covid Presidential election was truly unreadable; who would vote, what impact did Biden following Covid protocols versus Trump himself getting Covid then ripping his mask off (he almost wore a Superman shirt) on the White House terrace have on voters.  It turned out to be the same kind of “squeaker” as 2016, with Biden coming out on top.

But in 2022 the polls predicted a “Red Wave”.  The pollsters underestimated the power of women and reaction to the Supreme Court decision ending Roe v Wade.  But for the internal Democratic fight in New York state, Democrats would have kept the House and the Senate.  In spite of New York, instead of an overwhelming Republican victory, Democrats kept the Senate and barely, by five votes, lost the House.  

Margin of Error

So here we are in 2024.  And I got sucked back into the polls again, just like I did in 2016.  The polling is showing, right now, that this election is even narrower than 2016 and 2020.  It could go either way, inconceivable as it is to me that we could return to Trump after the January 6^th Insurrection.  I’ve written a lot about polling, and the dangers of “living and dying” on a one percent change in polls that have a four percent margin of error.  In the end, Trump up one percent, Harris up two percent; it’s meaningless.  It’s just crazy, crazy close.

Are the pollsters under estimating the power of women, again?  Is the model over-compensating for the Trump voters they missed in 2016?  How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?  It just doesn’t matter:  put your blinders on, and get to work.  There’s three weeks to go, it’s time for a “stretch run”.  

Post-Elections Shenanigans

So, say that Kamala Harris wins both elections, the popular vote and the electoral college.  Will there be a second Insurrection, this time better conceived, planned and executed?  Will “the will” of the people be served, or will the dark MAGA forces rise up and try to wrest the Presidency by “hook or by crook”?  

We all know, it might happen.  And worse, we can’t be sure that the US Supreme Court will do the right thing. They’ve already put their judicial thumb on the scales of Justice, granting Trump unheard of immunity for actions he took as President.  Things could get incredibly ugly between November 5^th and January 20^th.  But, for right now, there’s not a damn thing we can do about it.  It’s like worrying about the final race when you haven’t finished the prelims yet.  Put your blinders on, we’ve got to get through this finish line first, then we can deal with the next issue.

Vote Against Themselves

So what about the Black men who might vote for Trump, or the Hispanic vote that seems to be leaking towards him, or the Muslim vote that might sit out the election in protest to Biden?  There’s an old political “saw”:  in the end, voters will come home.  87% of Black men voted for Joe Biden.  There may be a vocal few who switch to Trump, but the reality is that Harris is likely to draw at least that much.  

59% of Hispanic voters (men and women) chose Biden over Trump.  Sure it might be a little closer this time around, but there’s no “mass movement” of Hispanic voters to Trump.  That shouldn’t be a surprise, Trump is denigrating Hispanics almost daily in his rallies.  And what about Muslim voters, particularly in the swing state of Michigan?  They aren’t going to vote for Trump, but will they turn out for Harris? Do you think they’ll vote for a Jewish lady from Chicago, Jill Stein? In the end, Muslims represent less than 3% of the Michigan vote.  While they are important, their vote is a very small slice of a much bigger pie.  It’s hard to say what they will do, (other than they won’t vote for Trump) but unless you have a way to impact them directly, there’s not much you can do about it. 

Trump Voters

And what about white men, and the “hidden” misogynistic, “I won’t vote for a woman” vote?  It’s the same vote that ultimately cost Hillary the White House.  Hopefully eight years has changed many Americans’ views, and certainly the younger generation is less burdened by prejudice than their elders.  But the bottom line:  if being a woman disqualifies Harris from a man’s vote, he probably wasn’t going to vote for a Democrat anyway.  Put your blinders on, and keep your “eyes on the prize”.  

And just an aside, how can folks vote for a man who held a rally in the desert this weekend, and required everyone to park five miles away and bus in.  Then, he didn’t pay for the buses to take them back, and abandoned his crowd to hike the miles back to their cars.  It was a strategy to make sure no one left early, and it demonstrates Trump’s “concern” for his MAGA crowd – none.  But don’t get distracted, the walkers are still voting for him anyway.  They’ve got blinders too.

The Race

You can’t change the polls, and you can’t pick up people from the rally.  But you can still impact the Presidential race.  You can call the campaign and volunteer; to make calls, knock on doors. And you can try to influence folks who listen to you (and write essays too).  You can donate money, in an era where it takes billions of dollars to run for President.  But most importantly:  you can put your blinders on, and you can make sure that you, and your like-minded friends and family, vote.  That’s keeping your eyes on the prize.

The List

• Roman Catholic Church – child molesters
• Boy Scouts of America –  more child molesters
• Youth Sports – still more child molesters
• Olympic Sports – molesters,  and performance enhancing drugs
• National Football League – rigged by the NY office, “woke and un-American” (see NASCAR)
• Federal Court System – biased judges
• State Court Systems –really biased judges
• US Congress – bought by lobbyists
• State Legislatures – owned by lobbyists
• Public Education – Indoctrinating Children into DEI, LGBTQ, CRT, and other initialisms
• US Presidency – Joe Biden is old and demented, and brilliantly corrupt and criminal
• Elections – ALL are corrupted, unless you win (never concede)
• FBI – politically weaponized against “us”
• Centers for Disease Control – faked the pandemic
• National Institutes of Health – in the pocket of big pharma, experimenting on Americans
• FEMA – seizing land for mining, giving money to illegal migrants
• Mainstream News – political weapon supporting liberal politicians and Big Business
• Immigrants – rapists and murderers, invading our nation
• US Colleges – Liberal bastions (because they teach Liberal Arts)
• Climate Change – fake news (see Mainstream Media and US colleges)
• US Military – weakened by Diversity, Equity and Inclusion; not a “man’s” Army anymore
• Asylum –crazy criminals from other countries are sent to the US, see “served with feta beans and a nice chianti” and Hannibal Lector
• Stock Markets – ignore the fact they’re setting record highs
• Donald Trump – “Only I can fix this”.

Institutions

Who can you trust?  So many of our institutions, the foundations of our society, are challenged today.  And there’s just enough truth in some of the “challenges” for some to try to paint all of those institutions as failures.  Look at the Church, Scouts, and youth sports.  They all had a problem with adults abusing children.  As someone who works with youth, I now have to pass a criminal background check, and take classes in how to avoid even the hint of impropriety to maintain my credentials.   And since I still hold a teaching license as well as a sports official license, I have to do them all twice.

And lobbyists and private interests do have an outsized role in the legislative process in America. I live in Ohio, with perhaps the most corrupted state government in the Nation (whoopee, OH-IO!!).  Private interests control a lot of what goes on in our state, from energy companies paying open bribes ($60 million from Direct Energy to politicians) to the subtle influence of private investors on our public retirement systems.  

There’s an old saying, “Give them an inch, and they’ll take a mile”.  And since there is a kernel of truth, an “inch” of veracity to some of the claims, the MAGA movement is taking “the mile” for their own political purposes.   So if every government and private institution are “corrupted”, then only MAGA is still “pure”.  And only they have the answer:  elect Donald Trump, because, as he said, “Only I can fix it”.  

Loaded Terms

There are “loaded” political science terms that describe when a single person, an “Only I” is empowered to alter government:  Authoritarian, Tyranny, Fascism, Autocracy, Absolutism, Caesarism, Monocracy, One-man rule, and Shogunate (thanks Google AI!!).   These are the terms that our traditional American social studies education use to describe the “bad leaders” of the past.  Because of that, I won’t use them to describe MAGA and Donald Trump, but, as  Dad would say; “If the shoe fits…wear it”.  

But the only way a single person can “rule”, is for all of the other institutions to fail (or be seen as failing).  And that’s what the Trump Campaign is doing now, describing all of our institutions as biased and corrupted.  As Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance describes, they base their “facts” on the statement that “many people think” or “everybody knows” they are failing.  And that vague “many or everybody” becomes their factual basis for the failure of America.  It’s circular logic, MAGA tells people something, some believe it and respond, and therefore it’s true.  It can be applied to false FEMA  “failings” in North Carolina, mythical pets missing in Springfield, non-existent non-citizens altering the results of elections, or phantom whole cities overtaken by Mexican gangs.  

8th Grade History

It’s not an accident.  The only way to change the “whole world” of American government, is to make the “whole thing” rotten.  It’s in the autocrat “playbook” (OK, I had to use one of those loaded terms).   And, it’s in everything that Trump does, all of the crazy stories he “weaves” in his rallies, and throughout the deadly seriousness of Project 2025.  

Like your eighth grade history teacher warned you:  a leader that says “Give me all the power and I’ll fix it”, doesn’t work out well for democracy.  It is why George Washington was a real success. He knew when it was time to walk away.  And it’s why Richard Nixon was a real failure. He committed crimes and abused his powers to maintain the Presidency.   

What will be the lesson for the kids born this year, the eighth grade class of 2038 – or – will teachers be allowed to discuss it at all?

We are making the choice, right now.

Kamala’s Coming

Look, I know this isn’t the time or place to talk about this.  There’s a Presidential election in twenty-six days.  I should be yelling from the rooftop, hanging lanterns from the church tower (one if by land, two if by sea), riding one of the dogs through the streets:  “Kamala for President, Kamala for President”.  But yelling from the rooftop would probably disrupt the neighborhood and stir up the “MAGA” crowd, and there isn’t a church in town that would let me in the belltower.  Besides Lou (the biggest of our dogs) couldn’t go the distance with me on his back.  

But you get the point, it’s the Presidency, it’s Harris versus Trump, it’s an election which may determine the future of the American experiment in democracy.   Talking about anything else seems to be inconsequential.

Unless, that is, you happen to live in the United States, and go outside. Or, to put it even more specifically, even if you don’t go out, the outside comes to you.   Because we live in an era of climate change, what we used to call “global warming”.  And it is warming, beyond a reasonable doubt if you want to apply the legal standard.  Every reasoned scientist, around the world, agrees.  It’s only the outliers, the ones who are looking for a platform and funding they can’t get in the mainstream, that think differently.  Those outliers are like the scientists who claimed using tobacco didn’t cause cancer, or nicotine wasn’t addictive: just wrong.

Warming Up

Now I’m not going to throw out a bunch of scientific evidence; except the record July 22^nd, 2024 average daily temperature of the earth of 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit (that includes the southern hemisphere at the height of winter, Antarctica, and above the Arctic Circle). Or the Gulf of Mexico that set a record high of 88 degrees at a depth of 165 feet in the summer of 2023.  But  dates and numbers aren’t really persuasive.  

How about these numbers:  there are 30 uncontrolled wildfires in the United States today, with 1.25 million acres burning (National Interagency Fire Agency).  Two huge hurricanes struck the United States in the last two weeks.  One damaged the coast, then deluged the Southern Appalachians with a “thousand year rain”, 18 inches that destroyed towns and infrastructure.  The other brought 126 tornados to eastern Florida, then slammed into Western Florida with Category 3 winds and, again, a “thousand year rain”, that included five inches in one hour.

It’s not that we haven’t had events like this before; we have.  But we haven’t had the frequency of fires, tornados, droughts, and hurricanes, and we haven’t had the intensity.  And they weren’t in such tremendous succession.  The poor folks in Florida weren’t even done cleaning up from Helene when Milton literally “popped up”, grew to Category 5, then weakened to Category Three before it actually hit land.

And, by the way, Congressman Marjorie Taylor Greene, if we really could direct storms, don’t you think we’d dump the 18” of rain on the 1.25 million acres on fire – duh???

Yes, We Can

Our world is growing more hostile, because we haven’t done enough to control the weather.  Congressman Greene is right about one thing, we do have an opportunity to control our future weather.  But she won’t agree with the answer:  reduce the amount of carbon emissions that we are putting in the atmosphere.  Carbon emissions trap heat, causing the global temperatures to rise.  Those rising temperatures are “stored” in the air, but also in the waters of our oceans.  And that warming water creates the energy that drives our more extreme weather.  

It’s science, but it isn’t “rocket science”.  It’s actually common sense.  And the common sense solution is to stop adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, to stop increasing the world temperature.  Hold the temperature, and hold the energy that’s increasing the storms.  See Marjorie:  we really can control the weather.

Millions of Tons

How do we do that?  Again, it doesn’t take a “rocket scientist” to figure this out. (By the way, I know some rocket scientists, and they really are incredibly smart people).   Carbon emissions is a “code word” for the exhaust gases from burning carbon based fuels.  Those are the fuels we dig and drill from the ground; coal, petroleum, natural gas.  So everything we do to reduce using those fuels reduces the amount that go into the air.  In 2022, we (the United States) put 5,489 million metric tons of carbon in the atmosphere (EPA).  That’s millions of tons, one little particle at a time.

Now we can be like little kids and whine, “Well China and India put more out than we do, so go stop them” (world carbon emitters-EPA). But the answer is, the atmosphere doesn’t care what nationality the carbon emissions came from.  We made a good start a decade ago with the Paris Accords, setting benchmarks for reducing world emissions.  But we, the United States, blew that up.  And we all know who was responsible for that:  saddle up the dog.

There are lots of ways to reduce carbon, from finding alternative sources of energy (wind, solar, even nuclear – yikes!).  And there are changes we can personally make.  We can drive hybrid and electric cars, and we can drive cars that get better mileage (says the guy with a Jeep and a truck).  We can elect officials who recognize our choice: we can live in a world with less fossil fuels, or we can live in a world with more storms, tornados, fires, and droughts.  

Just another reason to think about who to vote for in twenty-six days. 

Congruent – having the same shape and size, or being similar in character or type

Back to Normal

We hear it from both sides of our polarized world:  we want things “back to normal”.  There was a time, maybe two decades ago, when politics were important, but not all-consuming. There was a time when a Republican and a Democrat could stand shoulder to shoulder for local issues, then amicably disagree on National ones.  And there was a time where we “trusted” our institutions, from schools to banks, to the National Institute of Health, to something as common place as the Weather Bureau (now NOAA).  

We used to trust college professors to teach their students.  Sure, if there was a Marxist professor, it meant students would get a Marxist view of the course subject.  But that was acceptable, it was college, and, theoretically, student minds were ready to be “exposed” to all kinds of thought.  Marxist theory wasn’t some disease; exposure didn’t guarantee infection.  In fact, exposure might prove to be inoculation.  

But today, an avowed Marxist would be unlikely to keep their tenured position.  Not sure about that? Substitute the word Palestinian for Marxist.

Trusted Institutions

For most Americans, the FBI was one of the most trusted institutions in the government.  Some of us were around in the 1960’s, the “bad old days” of the J Edgar Hoover era. We knew that the FBI could be a weapon for political suppression.(Remember the George Carlin joke about answering the “always” FBI-tapped phone; “F**K Hoover, may I help you?”)  But post Hoover and Watergate, the FBI was the neutral arbiter and law enforcer, and after 9-11 and the Robert Mueller era, the great protector.

We used to trust the partisan election boards to count the votes.  Instead of being “bipartisan”, they were carefully divided between the two parties. A Republican and a Democrat looked over each shoulder.  We trusted that they would be fair, because they were so transparent.  And while there was the occasional corruption, in the fifty-one different state election systems, controlling thousands of local divisions;  the vast majority were fair.  We accepted their results. 

Confidence in institutions, like the United States Constitution, are fundamental for the success of our Representative Democracy. (Or our Federal Republic; the two terms are congruent).   If we don’t trust our institutions, if we believe that everything from the FBI to NOAA are now politicized then our government has failed. (Doesn’t that sound like Project 2025?)  And if our government has failed, then what is the alternative?

Alternatives

Back in college I had a Spanish professor who was a former minister in the Castro government, and then a refugee from Cuba.  He taught us Spanish, but he also taught us the failings of Castro, and the successes of the Batista dictatorship before “the Revolution”.  The Professor offered a different alternative to us American students, an alternative to Representative Democracy.  He proffered Batista’s fascism as a legitimate form of government; something that us children of the Greatest Generation who fought World War II against Nazism would never have considered.

President Xi of China offers a similar choice.  In a nation of 1.4 billion, he claims that the efficiency of authoritarian rule is “necessary”, as is the totalitarian control of the economy.  His argument is that “democracy” is too messy, too inefficient; to work in a large, diverse, modern nation.  

So there are alternatives to our form of government (alternatives that I am NOT advocating).  But to get Americans to seriously consider those alternatives, it is necessary to destroy confidence in our present institutions.   And in the “age” of social media, when every American has a direct link to the world in their pocket, it’s not that hard to do.

Shared Interest

Who is interested in destroying our confidence?  What are the “congruent interests” for the end of the American democracy?

Certainly our “competitors” in the world would get a “leg up” if the United States was no longer a part of the “free world”.  Russia, China, Iran, North Korea; all would benefit from a US that was no longer the “shining city on the hill” of Ronald Reagan days. We know that those nations are constantly on “our” social media, adding to the chaos, and undermining American Institutions.

 And there are those forces in the world that aren’t necessarily “competing”, but find our democratic ways abhorrent.  The terrorists; from Hezbollah and Hamas to Isis and the Haqqani Network, have a religious fervor to disrupt America (here’s the State Department list).

But those aren’t the most insidious threats to America.  

From Within

The CBS news show “Sixty Minutes” this week, interviewed Shelby Busch, the Vice Chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party (Phoenix).  She made it clear there was no level of “factual evidence” that would convince her that the elections aren’t “fixed”.  Even clear evidence presented by a fellow Republican, election administrator Steve Richter, isn’t enough to convince her.  In fact, she threatened to “lynch” him for suggesting the elections were fair.

From election-deniers to anti-vaxxers, Americans are overwhelmed with attacks on our institutions.  Some assertions are ridiculous, like “evidence” of government control of hurricanes being aimed at Republican voters (the flight charts of the Hurricane Hunters).  Some are insidious; “FEMA spent all the disaster money on migrants, so there’s none available for relief in North Carolina”.  Each one creates another doubt in the integrity of our institutions.  

Who in the United States benefits from loss of “faith” in our institutions?   Who has “congruent” interests with our world rivals?  And who talked to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin seven times, while surrounded by purloined National Security documents?

You know who.

Embedded

I spent much of 1977 “embedded” in American politics.  After working for the Carter/Mondale campaign in 1976, I went to Washington, DC in January to attend the inauguration, then to study at American University.  As part of my program, I also worked in Congressman Tom Luken’s (D-Cincinnati) office, first as a legislative intern, then later as a staff scheduler.   After a spring semester immersed in Government, I came home to Cincinnati for the summer, now working at Luken’s local office.  My job:  to organize the Congressman’s schedule, by the half-hour, from 7am to 9pm for every moment he was in town, and then, to accompany him to many of those events.

I learned a lot about Government, and about politics in that year.  I also learned a lot about working for a “difficult” boss.  Luken’s reputation as “tough” was well earned.  I can say this:  over that summer, other than one senior staffer, I was fired “the least”.  But that first time was a shock.  A United States Congressman was screaming and swearing on the phone, saying I was done.  Then, the next day, that same Congressman screamed and swore at me again, because I wasn’t at work.  The Cincinnati Democratic “rite of passage” of working for Luken taught me to have a thicker skin, and a more elaborate vocabulary.

Star Wars

Any distraction that summer of ‘77 was welcome.  So one night, I loaded the neighbor kids into my 1967 Volkswagen Squareback, and headed to the movies.   There was a new space saga on that everyone was talking about, called “Star Wars”.   If you now watch what is called “The New Hope”, it doesn’t have quite the luster it had back in “the day”.  Special effects have come a long way in forty-seven years, much of the progress made by Star Wars creator George Lucas and his company, Industrial Light and Magic.  But in 1977 it was almost overwhelming on the big screen.  We had no idea that it would become embedded on our culture for a half-century, but we did fall in love with the characters from the very first.

And we learned the mystic traditions and powers of the Jedi, and the Force.  Our first example was when Jedi Knight Obi Wan Kenobi was able to direct Imperial Stormtroopers away from the hero, Luke Skywalker, and his “droids”.

• Obi Wan: (with a small wave of his hand) – You don’t need to see his identification
• Stormtrooper: We don’t need to see his identification
• Obi Wan: These aren’t the droids you’re looking for
• Stormtrooper:  These aren’t the droids were looking for
• Obi Wan:  He can go about his business
• Stormtrooper:  You can go about your business
• Obi Wan: Move along
• Stormtrooper:  Move along, move along.

It was our first exposure to “Jedi Mind Tricks”.  And from that moment on the screen, the term “Jedi Mind Tricks” entered our vocabulary.  It means, getting folks to ignore something that’s in plain sight.

One final memory from that first exposure to Star Wars.  Driving home in my four-speed Volkswagen with the kids,  there might have been some “X-Wing Starfighter” maneuvers.  No laws were broken, but we weren’t going to get blown up by any “Tie-Fighters” on Springfield Pike either!

Covid

In fact, “mind tricks” are so common today, we might not even realize they’re happening.  Two entire historic events, are “disappeared” from our collective memory;  “these aren’t the droids you’re looking for”.  And that creates a direct impact on our political decisions today.

The first event is the Covid pandemic.  It was only three and a half years ago, but we have collectively “disappeared” it from our memories.  Part of the reason; we didn’t get to publicly mourn the losses.  Like our memory, the dead in Covid literally disappeared – we couldn’t say goodbye, go to a funeral, or gather friends and families for comfort.  Another reason is that we were isolated, individually or in small family groups; cut off from jobs or friends.  Much of our “connection” was through screens (I virtually taught 120 kids a day).  But we discovered that virtual wasn’t the same as real; it was too easy to just “move along, move along”.

Four Years Ago

When campaigns ask are we better now than we were four years ago, the answer is, “of course we are”.  Four years ago, Donald Trump had Covid, and was whisked to Walter Reed Hospital for experimental treatments. Four years ago gas prices were low, because people still couldn’t go places or do things. But, four years ago the unemployment rate was almost 7%; 11 million Americans were unable to find work. 

Some candidates for office are depending on this “Jedi Mind Trick”.  They want us to remember the before-Covid times, without the “payback” of the year and a half we all lost in our lives (and more) because of Covid.  Why is that?  So that we don’t give any credit to those who came into office and brought the Nation to recovery from the Covid recession.  The United States had the best recovery from Covid in the world.  Yes, prices went up.  But Americans have jobs, they have goods and services, they regained their lives and their friendships.  And we did it without the economic depression that most economists saw as inevitable.  

January 6^th

And now, politicians like Republican Vice Presidential Candidate JD Vance are asking us to re-write another memory of that era; the January 6^th, 2021, insurrection.  The picture he paints is of a “peaceful protest” by justified Americans, demanding that a stolen election be returned.  He wants us to see his candidate, Donald Trump, as blameless for the mob that descended on the Capitol and threatened to kill Vice President Pence and Speaker Pelosi.  He wants us to “move along, move along” to the future, as his Party lays the same groundwork for insurrection that they laid at the end of 2020.  

They want us to not believe “our lying eyes”.  We are to see hooligans as patriots, and those that schemed to overthrow our Constitution as heroes.  If they can convince us of that, then we can easily elect the schemers and ignore the real patriots who saved our Republic.  And the final “mind trick”.  Democrats don’t like Trump.  Two people have tried to kill Trump because they don’t like him.  Therefore, the assassins must be Democrats.  Trump is a martyr, a victim, to be glorified.  Democrats are the “hooligans”, willing to go to any length to stop Trump.  

After watching all of the Star Wars saga, we learned that the Force can be used by both evil and good, but that the “dark side” ultimately doesn’t win out.  It’s always a choice, between dark and light; with dark side offering immediate rewards, and the light usually longer term gains.  And like the Saga, we are asked to make a choice now.  As we make that decision, don’t fall for “Jedi Mind Tricks”.  We cannot ignore the past with a “small wave of his hand”.  We must see it all; then we can decide.

Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! …Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!  – Patrick Henry to the Virginia House of Burgesses, March 23, 1775

Actually Begun

It’s October 6^th, thirty days before election day.  But, of course, in our modern era, “the war is actually begun!!”.  Seven states are already voting.  Here in Ohio, voter registration ends tomorrow, and early voting starts Tuesday (voting information).   It’s estimated that at least 40% of votes will be cast before November 5^th.  (And it’s not that old Democratic joke: “Vote early and vote often.”)  This year, both campaigns are encouraging early voting.  It’s not just to make sure that “their” voters actually cast a ballot.  It’s a “money” thing.  When a vote is cast, that  fact is immediately registered on the voter list (that they voted, not how they voted).  Campaigns can stop campaigning to those voters, using the resources directly to those who have not voted.

Want to help your candidate?  Vote early, by mail or in-person, and get it over with.  It’s kind of like Christmas shopping.  Sure, you can be the person on Christmas Eve, desperately waiting in line for the last minute bargains.  But there’s always that issue, the “perfect gift” is out-of-stock.  Election day voting is “fun”.  There’s lines and excitement; the feeling of being part of the great American experiment in real-time.  But there’s always the issues; car, weather, job; all things that might get in the way of casting your ballot.  So make the campaigns happy, vote early (not often). 

Minute-by-Minute

Back in August, at the Democratic Convention, there was a new spirit in the Democratic Party.  Harris was uplifting:  instead of “just” saving Democracy, she was offering a new vision beyond “We are not going back”.  And that’s still true.  But, now a month later, there is also a growing dread.  After everything thrown at the Trump campaign, after all the minute-by-minute lying Trump and Vance have done; it’s still an extremely narrow election. 

Part of that is also “theatre”.  The two major polling averages, Real Clear Politics and 538; use a greater number of “Red” polls, done with a bias towards the Republican side.  Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg lists twenty-seven polls that are “red-leaning”, including:

Daily Mail, Cygnal, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Napolitan Institute, Public Opinion Strategies, Rasmussen, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, and (of course) the Wall Street Journal.  

More “red” polls, more “redder” numbers in the average.  No matter how well the Harris/Walz ticket does, the average still slants “red”.  Today, Real Clear Politics averages has Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.  But in the swing states, where the Electoral College will be determined, it’s tied 48% to 48%.  And that’s the “slanted” version.

Stressors

So why all the mumbling and jumbling of numbers?  Because we have reached that point in the election, where the beginning is long ago, and the end too far away.   For those who are attuned, the adrenalin tap has been on full (like Trump’s giant water valve) for two months.  All of the chemical stress takes a toll, and it’s easy to start to despair.  And those damn numbers don’t help.  So add a grain of salt (or a bag) to the flood of polling data:  remember they are “leaned” in a direction. (For those of you who are MSNBC fans, and struggle with Steve Kornacki who seems to always have “bad” news – remember he’s using these same numbers.  As my programmer friends used to say, “Garbage in, Garbage out”).

Want to unstress?  Do something.  Put up a sign, knock on some doors; heaven forbid, have a conversation with your neighbor (probably not the one with the F**K Biden flag still flying).  Do what you can to support your candidate.  Write a letter, or an essay (or guest write one here on Our America).  Action always reliefs stress.  And the most important thing you can do, is vote.  

To paraphrase Patrick Henry: 

“I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me the ballot, or give me death!”

The 1983 movie “War Games” (Matthew Broderick, Ally Sheedy, Dabney Coleman) was about a high school student who hacked into the National missile defense computer. He started a “War Game” that almost resulted in a real nuclear war.  The only way to stop the “game” was to convince the computer of the absolute futility of nuclear attacks.  In the end, the computer grasped the idea, and said:  “Strange game.  The only winning move is not to play.” – War Games, 1983

Jack Smith’s Filing

Yesterday, the redacted transcript of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s evidence against Donald Trump was released.  It’s 152 pages packed with Grand Jury testimony about Trump’s conduct around the 2020 election, particularly in the time between the election in early November, and the Insurrection on January 6^th, 2021.    While I have the entire transcript, I’m still working my way through that mountain of evidence.  But, even with a cursory reading, the message is clear.  President Trump knew he lost the 2020 election.  He knew that there wasn’t voter fraud, that the election wasn’t “stolen” from him.  

But he continued to maintain that it was “stolen”. He marshalled his forces both inside and outside the White House to block the lawful transition of power:  first in the Courts, then in the states, then at the Congressional level.  He sent a mob to the Congress with the express intent to disrupt the official certification of the electoral votes. And he tried to force his Vice President, Mike Pence, into leading the effort.  

It’s more than unusual for all of the evidence to be put on public display prior to trial.  But this revelation is a product of Trump’s own legal actions.  In appealing Counsel Smith’s charges, Trump won a huge victory in the Supreme Court.  The Nation’s highest judicial body ruled that actions within the President’s “official duties” are immune from prosecution.  He can only be held legally accountable for actions in a “private” capacity.  And since the trial court, the Federal District Court in Washington, DC, is required to determine the differences between official and private, Smith presented all the information he deemed as “private” for the Court’s perusal. 

October Surprise

To be clear, there’s nothing shockingly new in the Smith document.  It simply provides detailed explanations to fill in much of what we learned through the January 6^th hearings, and from the volumes of reporting and “inside” books about the time.  The biggest revelation was from Mike Pence’s Grand Jury testimony.  He refused to cooperate in the Congressional hearings, so it’s the first time we know what he said and thought.  Not surprising; Pence painted a scene of growing personal pressure from Trump to interfere with the electoral certification. This was even after Pence made it clear he didn’t have the Constitutional power to do so.

The Smith transcript is “just another nail in the coffin” for the Trump campaign.  Of all the issues confronted in the 2024 Presidential election, the most significant one is what Democrats call Trump’s “existential threat” to our Constitutional Democracy.  The transcript is even more evidence that Donald Trump was willing to use the powers of the Presidency to remain in office, regardless of the outcome of the electoral and popular votes.  But this is not an “October Surprise”, along the lines of the Access Hollywood tape or the Weiner Laptop investigations of 2016.   There are few calls for Trump to drop out of the race. He and his running mate JD Vance continue to campaign.

Status-Quo

It seems there is no event, (barring assassination) that will alter the status-quo of the 2024 election.  All of the information is out, all of the debates are over.  And while the world roils from Ukraine to the Middle East, neither candidate is able to take advantage of the turmoil. Most Democrats are set; most MAGA-Republicans are too.   

If the past is prologue, then 2024 will be decided by a small sliver of voters in a few pivotal states.  The campaigns are both looking to influence that sliver, before they turn to the final, get out the vote efforts.  The apparent strategies in the  Vice Presidential debates, where the two combative candidates appeared to be almost collegial, were aimed at those small sub-groups.  

Among those groups are the identified Republicans who are not willing to vote for Trump.  They are “Never-Trumpers”.  And the question the campaigns ask is: are they going to vote for Harris? Or, as the 1983 movie “War Games” made famous, decide “…that the only winning move is not to play”?  Will they leave the Presidential election box empty? Or, as Utah Senator and former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney did, vote for someone else.  Romney wrote-in his wife Ann Romney in 2016.

Narrow Margin

Hillary Clinton won the 2016 popular vote by over three million votes, but still lost the Presidency in the Electoral College.  Joe Biden won by over seven million, and just eked out a narrow Electoral victory.  From the Harris side it’s not about not voting for Trump, it’s about voting for Harris/Walz.  Any other choice works to Trump’s advantage.  

Unlike “War Games”, the only winning move in this election is to play.  Regardless of tax policy, abortion laws, immigration controls or inflation; the existential threat of Trump to the American Constitutional system is clear.  Jack Smith’s indictment makes it even more apparent to what lengths Trump was willing to go to remain in power, regardless of the law, regardless of tradition, regardless of the Constitution.  That MUST be enough.  The only winning move in this situation is to vote for Harris.  Any other choice puts our Democracy (or for my indoctrinated friends, our Constitutional Republic) in jeopardy. 

We all must “play”. 

Smooth

Last night’s debate was a stark contrast.  Regardless of your side of our political chasm, there are some things that are factually true.  Senator JD Vance was smooth, silky smooth.  His answers were articulate, well thought out, and true or not, sold with conviction.  After watching him last night, I understand why billionaires Peter Thiel and Donald Trump and Trump’s real heirs, Don Junior and Eric, picked Vance as the “heir apparent” to MAGA world.  

Vance was willing to go to any length to sell his message.  He spent minutes convincing Americans to, “not believe your lying eyes”.  He tried to persuade us that as President, Donald Trump saved the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare.  It was really only a few years ago, when we sat up late into the night, watching the US Senate determine the fate of the medical insurance plan.  Many of us were still awake when Arizona’s John McCain walked into the Senate chamber up to the voting clerk, raised his damaged arm, and voted “thumbs down” to the effort to cancel the plan. 

Big Lies 

And we remember how furious Trump was, once again one-upped by the “Maverick”.  In fact, at the behest of Trump, the Republicans in Congress tried to end the Affordable Care Act thirty-nine times.  But, in the silky words of Senator Vance, Trump was really trying to save it.

But the big “lie” last night, was about the “Big Lie”.  Vance would have us believe that Trump was sending a mob to the Capitol on January 6^th, to “peacefully protest” (as opposed to “fight like Hell”) to stop the Presidential certification.  We watched that too; as it seemed the very existence of our Constitutional Democracy was in the balance.  But Vance blew it off; after all, Biden was inaugurated on January 20^th.  And Vance would not, could not, admit that Biden actually won.  As Governor Walz said, “That was a damning non-answer”. 

There were lots of other lies by Vance, so many, that there was no way to “fact-check” him.  The basic theory of debate, with two candidates present their positions, depends on facts and truth.  But Vance presented a perverted history that doesn’t stand up to the “smell test”.

Stage Fright

And what about Governor Walz?  No question, he was damn nervous, especially at the beginning.  Democrats watching the first ten minutes had  “Biden flashbacks”.  But the Governor settled down, and, other than an awkward question about what he did thirty-five years ago,  he handled questions well.  He got “wonky” on issues, something many undecided voters wanted; about agriculture, abortion, housing, and guns.  And he was able to call out Vance for de-humanizing migrants, using them as the scapegoat for every ill in America.  

Walz was not a “tough debater”.  He wasn’t after the “gotcha” moment with Vance.  And he wasn’t looking for the tag-line:  “You’re no Jack Kennedy”, or “I’m speaking”.  Instead, he was trying to answer the questions and explain his views to the American people.  

And Vance tried to “out-Walz”, Walz.  They had several answers where they turned to each other and said “we agree”.  And to my friends on the left, who wanted Vance’s blood and guts on the floor, that’s disappointing.  Walz let Vance seem like a “normal” politician, a Joe Biden versus Paul Ryan style Vice Presidential debate.  The Vance on the stage last night isn’t the same Vance that’s been on the campaign trail, and Walz let him “get away” with it.

No Harm

The first goal for both was to “do no harm”.  But Democratic core members are disappointed, kind of a “…how dare Walz be nice, and find common ground, with Vance!!!”.  We’ve all seen Walz on the stump, and we know he can be a firebrand, COACH WALZ at halftime.  So what happened?

The last two elections have been narrowly decided, and this one is going to be as well.  If 2016 was decided by 74,744 votes in the swing states, and 2020 decided by 44,000; how narrow will 2024 be?  There’s time for Harris and Walz (and the Obamas, and Bidens, and Clintons) to energize the core, but there’s not much time to reach those still undecided.  And Walz was reaching for them, presenting a political world of collegiality that, maybe, really doesn’t exist.  Walz wasn’t a firebrand; he was a Governor of a state, touting Minnesota’s achievements and applying them to the Nation.  

The small middle is looking for a “return to Normalcy”, and Walz presented that last night.   And Vance showed us he could sell “iceboxes to Eskimos” (probably not an appropriate phrase anymore).  He lied, cleanly, coolly, with a straight and “honest” face.   The goal of both debaters was clear:  reach those few in the middle who remain straddling the fence.  And frankly, both were able to do so.  

But I don’t think those few will be fooled by the obvious lies of Senator JD Vance, called out by Governor Walz.  And, that may make all the difference, five weeks from now when the votes are counted.

“Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way. She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country,” – Donald Trump, at a rally in Prairie du Chen, Wisconsin.

Fifth Grade Playground

“You’re stupid.  You’re Dad’s stupid too, but at least he was smart once.  He just got old.  You were born stupid”.  I  could’ve heard it on the 5^th grade playground while I was sub-teaching at school.  But, to be honest, I’d expect better from fifth graders.  After all, they are one step away from the emotional crucible of middle school.  The insults should be more creative.  And the whole parent side, “your Dad’s stupid too”, is just dumb, carefully answered by, “You don’t even know my Dad” or the ultimate payback, “My Dad’s dead!!!!”.  So, like any good teacher, I’d break up the insults, both for being mean, and for lacking in creativity.  That’s never going to work next year in the Middle School.

Or at least I would, but it’s not happening on the fifth grade playground in the shadow of the geodesic climbing dome.  And it’s not an argument about who got “knocked out” in “Gaga Ball” (now all the rage, a cross between four square and dodge ball in an enclosed octagon).  In fact, it’s happening on America’s greatest “debate” stage, the campaign for the Presidency of the United States.

Seriously

You’d think the first thing a candidate for President would want to be is serious.   I mean, no one wants the most powerful person, the avowed leader of the free world, the person in charge of the weapons to destroy the entire planet, to be “un-serious”.   That doesn’t mean candidates can’t laugh, enjoy the show, and even dance to the rally music.  But when it comes down to it, to the issues and crises of our times, it’s not a laughing matter.   This is serious stuff, for serious people.  The “you’re stupid” argument should have been left on the playground, actually, the second grade playground.

Oh wait, we “adulted up” the language.  Instead of “stupid”, it’s now “mentally disabled”.  That “adulting” doesn’t really change the issue, but it does manage to insult not only the other party, but everyone who actually suffers from mental disabilities; from brain cancer survivors to stroke victims.  And many of them can vote; so, nice job there. 

All’s Fair

There are legitimate differences between the Presidential candidates.  Issues like immigration, abortion, managing the economy, tariffs and taxation, handling a complex world situation, and the growing diversity of the American population and life; all require serious solutions.   In a “West Wing” world, the candidates would layout their plans, and the voters would decide.

But, my “West Wing” reference is dated, and so is my hope that our politics could rise above personal insult.  Michelle Obama used to say, “When they go low, we go higher” back in the day.  But that day, at least for one side of the election, is long gone.  Both sides learned the other lesson of American politics:  “All’s fair in love and war…and politics”.  So in our current era, our politics trends to the lowest common denominator.   Even the network news is giving up on accuracy:  CBS won’t factcheck tonight’s Vice Presidential debate.  Facts are too “controversial”, I guess.

The Context

So we are left with a campaign where one side uses childish insults, and makes things up out of whole cloth.  I’ve already written about “eating the pets” (Scared Dogs).  But after some consideration, I don’t think “eating the pets” was some leap of Facebook fancy that JD Vance picked up by happenstance.  It’s too “convenient” to be a mistake.  As Vance himself said, he needed to create (his words) a “context” to raise the issue of immigrants.  

But the Trump/Vance ticket is making inroads into the Latino vote.  They couldn’t afford to have Vance’s “context” built around Central or South American migrants; that might offend their new  Latino Republican friends in Florida, Texas, Nevada and Arizona.  So they had to “find” a different migrant group, even if they were LEGAL migrants,INVITED to Springfield, Ohio to help fill jobs in that the hollowed-out post-industrial town.  Springfield was dying; the Haitian migrants help in the recent revitalization.

Strategic Racism

Haitians aren’t Latino, they’re Creole.  Their native language is based on French, not Spanish.  And they are Black, not the mixture of Spanish, Native American and African of many Latinos.  So attacking them was a “safe” bet for the Trump/Vance campaign.  They would only offend those that weren’t likely to support them anyway (though they offended the Haitian vote in Florida, another key state in a potential Trump victory).  

My point:  attacking the Haitians in Springfield was a strategic decision, not just some Trump “word salad” (he’d call it a “weave”).  It even took precedence over the Latino gangs in Aurora, Colorado.  That makes it all the worse:  the Trump/Vance team aren’t fools, they’re racists.   

And if you want to say I’m “name calling” too; damn right.  But at least I’m doing it at the high school level, not like some second grader.