Month: October 2024

Run for the Roses

Horse racing isn’t simple, but the goal of horse racing is: to win the race.  There are all sorts of tactics to achieve that goal. I don’t know a lot about horse racing, though as a track coach, I do know about tactics.  Like horses, different athletes bring different strengths to the race; fast at the beginning, strong at the end, courageous from the back, comfortable in the lead.  And athletes, and horses, can get distracted in a race and lose focus on the goal: to win.  

With athletes I often give them “checkmarks”, points along the way where they need to re-check their tactics and their focus, and make sure they’re “mind’s right”.  With horses it’s not quite so easy; the jockey has to control the distractions along the way, and determine when it’s time to “go” for the finish (as the old Dan Fogelberg song goes:  Run for the Roses!). 

Eyes on the Prize

 One way to control the distractions for a horse, is to put blinders on them.  Blinders restrict their vision only to the front.  There’s an obscure car racing movie, Gumball Rally, that had only one famous line:  “The first rule of Italian driving, what’s behind me is not important”.  So too for the horses in the final stretch: make sure they’re not distracted.  Put blinders on them.

I was in a social media discussion the other day, and one of the participants stated that I had blinders on.  It  wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I took it that way.  Because we need blinders right now as we enter the last three weeks of the American Presidential campaign.  There are so many things to distract us, to waste energy and time on, to “lose our minds” about.  As the old civil rights slogan goes, we need to “keep our eyes on the prize”.  So put your blinders on.

Polls

I swore after 2016 I wouldn’t get sucked back into daily political polls.  2016 polling was just wrong:  understandably, I guess, Trump voters didn’t want to tell anybody.  But they did vote, and so what looked like an easy Clinton win, became a shocking Trump victory. 

And I did a pretty good job of ignoring polls in 2020.  The Covid Presidential election was truly unreadable; who would vote, what impact did Biden following Covid protocols versus Trump himself getting Covid then ripping his mask off (he almost wore a Superman shirt) on the White House terrace have on voters.  It turned out to be the same kind of “squeaker” as 2016, with Biden coming out on top.

But in 2022 the polls predicted a “Red Wave”.  The pollsters underestimated the power of women and reaction to the Supreme Court decision ending Roe v Wade.  But for the internal Democratic fight in New York state, Democrats would have kept the House and the Senate.  In spite of New York, instead of an overwhelming Republican victory, Democrats kept the Senate and barely, by five votes, lost the House.  

Margin of Error

So here we are in 2024.  And I got sucked back into the polls again, just like I did in 2016.  The polling is showing, right now, that this election is even narrower than 2016 and 2020.  It could go either way, inconceivable as it is to me that we could return to Trump after the January 6^th Insurrection.  I’ve written a lot about polling, and the dangers of “living and dying” on a one percent change in polls that have a four percent margin of error.  In the end, Trump up one percent, Harris up two percent; it’s meaningless.  It’s just crazy, crazy close.

Are the pollsters under estimating the power of women, again?  Is the model over-compensating for the Trump voters they missed in 2016?  How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?  It just doesn’t matter:  put your blinders on, and get to work.  There’s three weeks to go, it’s time for a “stretch run”.  

Post-Elections Shenanigans

So, say that Kamala Harris wins both elections, the popular vote and the electoral college.  Will there be a second Insurrection, this time better conceived, planned and executed?  Will “the will” of the people be served, or will the dark MAGA forces rise up and try to wrest the Presidency by “hook or by crook”?  

We all know, it might happen.  And worse, we can’t be sure that the US Supreme Court will do the right thing. They’ve already put their judicial thumb on the scales of Justice, granting Trump unheard of immunity for actions he took as President.  Things could get incredibly ugly between November 5^th and January 20^th.  But, for right now, there’s not a damn thing we can do about it.  It’s like worrying about the final race when you haven’t finished the prelims yet.  Put your blinders on, we’ve got to get through this finish line first, then we can deal with the next issue.

Vote Against Themselves

So what about the Black men who might vote for Trump, or the Hispanic vote that seems to be leaking towards him, or the Muslim vote that might sit out the election in protest to Biden?  There’s an old political “saw”:  in the end, voters will come home.  87% of Black men voted for Joe Biden.  There may be a vocal few who switch to Trump, but the reality is that Harris is likely to draw at least that much.  

59% of Hispanic voters (men and women) chose Biden over Trump.  Sure it might be a little closer this time around, but there’s no “mass movement” of Hispanic voters to Trump.  That shouldn’t be a surprise, Trump is denigrating Hispanics almost daily in his rallies.  And what about Muslim voters, particularly in the swing state of Michigan?  They aren’t going to vote for Trump, but will they turn out for Harris? Do you think they’ll vote for a Jewish lady from Chicago, Jill Stein? In the end, Muslims represent less than 3% of the Michigan vote.  While they are important, their vote is a very small slice of a much bigger pie.  It’s hard to say what they will do, (other than they won’t vote for Trump) but unless you have a way to impact them directly, there’s not much you can do about it. 

Trump Voters

And what about white men, and the “hidden” misogynistic, “I won’t vote for a woman” vote?  It’s the same vote that ultimately cost Hillary the White House.  Hopefully eight years has changed many Americans’ views, and certainly the younger generation is less burdened by prejudice than their elders.  But the bottom line:  if being a woman disqualifies Harris from a man’s vote, he probably wasn’t going to vote for a Democrat anyway.  Put your blinders on, and keep your “eyes on the prize”.  

And just an aside, how can folks vote for a man who held a rally in the desert this weekend, and required everyone to park five miles away and bus in.  Then, he didn’t pay for the buses to take them back, and abandoned his crowd to hike the miles back to their cars.  It was a strategy to make sure no one left early, and it demonstrates Trump’s “concern” for his MAGA crowd – none.  But don’t get distracted, the walkers are still voting for him anyway.  They’ve got blinders too.

The Race

You can’t change the polls, and you can’t pick up people from the rally.  But you can still impact the Presidential race.  You can call the campaign and volunteer; to make calls, knock on doors. And you can try to influence folks who listen to you (and write essays too).  You can donate money, in an era where it takes billions of dollars to run for President.  But most importantly:  you can put your blinders on, and you can make sure that you, and your like-minded friends and family, vote.  That’s keeping your eyes on the prize.

The List

• Roman Catholic Church – child molesters
• Boy Scouts of America –  more child molesters
• Youth Sports – still more child molesters
• Olympic Sports – molesters,  and performance enhancing drugs
• National Football League – rigged by the NY office, “woke and un-American” (see NASCAR)
• Federal Court System – biased judges
• State Court Systems –really biased judges
• US Congress – bought by lobbyists
• State Legislatures – owned by lobbyists
• Public Education – Indoctrinating Children into DEI, LGBTQ, CRT, and other initialisms
• US Presidency – Joe Biden is old and demented, and brilliantly corrupt and criminal
• Elections – ALL are corrupted, unless you win (never concede)
• FBI – politically weaponized against “us”
• Centers for Disease Control – faked the pandemic
• National Institutes of Health – in the pocket of big pharma, experimenting on Americans
• FEMA – seizing land for mining, giving money to illegal migrants
• Mainstream News – political weapon supporting liberal politicians and Big Business
• Immigrants – rapists and murderers, invading our nation
• US Colleges – Liberal bastions (because they teach Liberal Arts)
• Climate Change – fake news (see Mainstream Media and US colleges)
• US Military – weakened by Diversity, Equity and Inclusion; not a “man’s” Army anymore
• Asylum –crazy criminals from other countries are sent to the US, see “served with feta beans and a nice chianti” and Hannibal Lector
• Stock Markets – ignore the fact they’re setting record highs
• Donald Trump – “Only I can fix this”.

Institutions

Who can you trust?  So many of our institutions, the foundations of our society, are challenged today.  And there’s just enough truth in some of the “challenges” for some to try to paint all of those institutions as failures.  Look at the Church, Scouts, and youth sports.  They all had a problem with adults abusing children.  As someone who works with youth, I now have to pass a criminal background check, and take classes in how to avoid even the hint of impropriety to maintain my credentials.   And since I still hold a teaching license as well as a sports official license, I have to do them all twice.

And lobbyists and private interests do have an outsized role in the legislative process in America. I live in Ohio, with perhaps the most corrupted state government in the Nation (whoopee, OH-IO!!).  Private interests control a lot of what goes on in our state, from energy companies paying open bribes ($60 million from Direct Energy to politicians) to the subtle influence of private investors on our public retirement systems.  

There’s an old saying, “Give them an inch, and they’ll take a mile”.  And since there is a kernel of truth, an “inch” of veracity to some of the claims, the MAGA movement is taking “the mile” for their own political purposes.   So if every government and private institution are “corrupted”, then only MAGA is still “pure”.  And only they have the answer:  elect Donald Trump, because, as he said, “Only I can fix it”.  

Loaded Terms

There are “loaded” political science terms that describe when a single person, an “Only I” is empowered to alter government:  Authoritarian, Tyranny, Fascism, Autocracy, Absolutism, Caesarism, Monocracy, One-man rule, and Shogunate (thanks Google AI!!).   These are the terms that our traditional American social studies education use to describe the “bad leaders” of the past.  Because of that, I won’t use them to describe MAGA and Donald Trump, but, as  Dad would say; “If the shoe fits…wear it”.  

But the only way a single person can “rule”, is for all of the other institutions to fail (or be seen as failing).  And that’s what the Trump Campaign is doing now, describing all of our institutions as biased and corrupted.  As Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance describes, they base their “facts” on the statement that “many people think” or “everybody knows” they are failing.  And that vague “many or everybody” becomes their factual basis for the failure of America.  It’s circular logic, MAGA tells people something, some believe it and respond, and therefore it’s true.  It can be applied to false FEMA  “failings” in North Carolina, mythical pets missing in Springfield, non-existent non-citizens altering the results of elections, or phantom whole cities overtaken by Mexican gangs.  

8th Grade History

It’s not an accident.  The only way to change the “whole world” of American government, is to make the “whole thing” rotten.  It’s in the autocrat “playbook” (OK, I had to use one of those loaded terms).   And, it’s in everything that Trump does, all of the crazy stories he “weaves” in his rallies, and throughout the deadly seriousness of Project 2025.  

Like your eighth grade history teacher warned you:  a leader that says “Give me all the power and I’ll fix it”, doesn’t work out well for democracy.  It is why George Washington was a real success. He knew when it was time to walk away.  And it’s why Richard Nixon was a real failure. He committed crimes and abused his powers to maintain the Presidency.   

What will be the lesson for the kids born this year, the eighth grade class of 2038 – or – will teachers be allowed to discuss it at all?

We are making the choice, right now.

Kamala’s Coming

Look, I know this isn’t the time or place to talk about this.  There’s a Presidential election in twenty-six days.  I should be yelling from the rooftop, hanging lanterns from the church tower (one if by land, two if by sea), riding one of the dogs through the streets:  “Kamala for President, Kamala for President”.  But yelling from the rooftop would probably disrupt the neighborhood and stir up the “MAGA” crowd, and there isn’t a church in town that would let me in the belltower.  Besides Lou (the biggest of our dogs) couldn’t go the distance with me on his back.  

But you get the point, it’s the Presidency, it’s Harris versus Trump, it’s an election which may determine the future of the American experiment in democracy.   Talking about anything else seems to be inconsequential.

Unless, that is, you happen to live in the United States, and go outside. Or, to put it even more specifically, even if you don’t go out, the outside comes to you.   Because we live in an era of climate change, what we used to call “global warming”.  And it is warming, beyond a reasonable doubt if you want to apply the legal standard.  Every reasoned scientist, around the world, agrees.  It’s only the outliers, the ones who are looking for a platform and funding they can’t get in the mainstream, that think differently.  Those outliers are like the scientists who claimed using tobacco didn’t cause cancer, or nicotine wasn’t addictive: just wrong.

Warming Up

Now I’m not going to throw out a bunch of scientific evidence; except the record July 22^nd, 2024 average daily temperature of the earth of 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit (that includes the southern hemisphere at the height of winter, Antarctica, and above the Arctic Circle). Or the Gulf of Mexico that set a record high of 88 degrees at a depth of 165 feet in the summer of 2023.  But  dates and numbers aren’t really persuasive.  

How about these numbers:  there are 30 uncontrolled wildfires in the United States today, with 1.25 million acres burning (National Interagency Fire Agency).  Two huge hurricanes struck the United States in the last two weeks.  One damaged the coast, then deluged the Southern Appalachians with a “thousand year rain”, 18 inches that destroyed towns and infrastructure.  The other brought 126 tornados to eastern Florida, then slammed into Western Florida with Category 3 winds and, again, a “thousand year rain”, that included five inches in one hour.

It’s not that we haven’t had events like this before; we have.  But we haven’t had the frequency of fires, tornados, droughts, and hurricanes, and we haven’t had the intensity.  And they weren’t in such tremendous succession.  The poor folks in Florida weren’t even done cleaning up from Helene when Milton literally “popped up”, grew to Category 5, then weakened to Category Three before it actually hit land.

And, by the way, Congressman Marjorie Taylor Greene, if we really could direct storms, don’t you think we’d dump the 18” of rain on the 1.25 million acres on fire – duh???

Yes, We Can

Our world is growing more hostile, because we haven’t done enough to control the weather.  Congressman Greene is right about one thing, we do have an opportunity to control our future weather.  But she won’t agree with the answer:  reduce the amount of carbon emissions that we are putting in the atmosphere.  Carbon emissions trap heat, causing the global temperatures to rise.  Those rising temperatures are “stored” in the air, but also in the waters of our oceans.  And that warming water creates the energy that drives our more extreme weather.  

It’s science, but it isn’t “rocket science”.  It’s actually common sense.  And the common sense solution is to stop adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, to stop increasing the world temperature.  Hold the temperature, and hold the energy that’s increasing the storms.  See Marjorie:  we really can control the weather.

Millions of Tons

How do we do that?  Again, it doesn’t take a “rocket scientist” to figure this out. (By the way, I know some rocket scientists, and they really are incredibly smart people).   Carbon emissions is a “code word” for the exhaust gases from burning carbon based fuels.  Those are the fuels we dig and drill from the ground; coal, petroleum, natural gas.  So everything we do to reduce using those fuels reduces the amount that go into the air.  In 2022, we (the United States) put 5,489 million metric tons of carbon in the atmosphere (EPA).  That’s millions of tons, one little particle at a time.

Now we can be like little kids and whine, “Well China and India put more out than we do, so go stop them” (world carbon emitters-EPA). But the answer is, the atmosphere doesn’t care what nationality the carbon emissions came from.  We made a good start a decade ago with the Paris Accords, setting benchmarks for reducing world emissions.  But we, the United States, blew that up.  And we all know who was responsible for that:  saddle up the dog.

There are lots of ways to reduce carbon, from finding alternative sources of energy (wind, solar, even nuclear – yikes!).  And there are changes we can personally make.  We can drive hybrid and electric cars, and we can drive cars that get better mileage (says the guy with a Jeep and a truck).  We can elect officials who recognize our choice: we can live in a world with less fossil fuels, or we can live in a world with more storms, tornados, fires, and droughts.  

Just another reason to think about who to vote for in twenty-six days. 

Congruent – having the same shape and size, or being similar in character or type

Back to Normal

We hear it from both sides of our polarized world:  we want things “back to normal”.  There was a time, maybe two decades ago, when politics were important, but not all-consuming. There was a time when a Republican and a Democrat could stand shoulder to shoulder for local issues, then amicably disagree on National ones.  And there was a time where we “trusted” our institutions, from schools to banks, to the National Institute of Health, to something as common place as the Weather Bureau (now NOAA).  

We used to trust college professors to teach their students.  Sure, if there was a Marxist professor, it meant students would get a Marxist view of the course subject.  But that was acceptable, it was college, and, theoretically, student minds were ready to be “exposed” to all kinds of thought.  Marxist theory wasn’t some disease; exposure didn’t guarantee infection.  In fact, exposure might prove to be inoculation.  

But today, an avowed Marxist would be unlikely to keep their tenured position.  Not sure about that? Substitute the word Palestinian for Marxist.

Trusted Institutions

For most Americans, the FBI was one of the most trusted institutions in the government.  Some of us were around in the 1960’s, the “bad old days” of the J Edgar Hoover era. We knew that the FBI could be a weapon for political suppression.(Remember the George Carlin joke about answering the “always” FBI-tapped phone; “F**K Hoover, may I help you?”)  But post Hoover and Watergate, the FBI was the neutral arbiter and law enforcer, and after 9-11 and the Robert Mueller era, the great protector.

We used to trust the partisan election boards to count the votes.  Instead of being “bipartisan”, they were carefully divided between the two parties. A Republican and a Democrat looked over each shoulder.  We trusted that they would be fair, because they were so transparent.  And while there was the occasional corruption, in the fifty-one different state election systems, controlling thousands of local divisions;  the vast majority were fair.  We accepted their results. 

Confidence in institutions, like the United States Constitution, are fundamental for the success of our Representative Democracy. (Or our Federal Republic; the two terms are congruent).   If we don’t trust our institutions, if we believe that everything from the FBI to NOAA are now politicized then our government has failed. (Doesn’t that sound like Project 2025?)  And if our government has failed, then what is the alternative?

Alternatives

Back in college I had a Spanish professor who was a former minister in the Castro government, and then a refugee from Cuba.  He taught us Spanish, but he also taught us the failings of Castro, and the successes of the Batista dictatorship before “the Revolution”.  The Professor offered a different alternative to us American students, an alternative to Representative Democracy.  He proffered Batista’s fascism as a legitimate form of government; something that us children of the Greatest Generation who fought World War II against Nazism would never have considered.

President Xi of China offers a similar choice.  In a nation of 1.4 billion, he claims that the efficiency of authoritarian rule is “necessary”, as is the totalitarian control of the economy.  His argument is that “democracy” is too messy, too inefficient; to work in a large, diverse, modern nation.  

So there are alternatives to our form of government (alternatives that I am NOT advocating).  But to get Americans to seriously consider those alternatives, it is necessary to destroy confidence in our present institutions.   And in the “age” of social media, when every American has a direct link to the world in their pocket, it’s not that hard to do.

Shared Interest

Who is interested in destroying our confidence?  What are the “congruent interests” for the end of the American democracy?

Certainly our “competitors” in the world would get a “leg up” if the United States was no longer a part of the “free world”.  Russia, China, Iran, North Korea; all would benefit from a US that was no longer the “shining city on the hill” of Ronald Reagan days. We know that those nations are constantly on “our” social media, adding to the chaos, and undermining American Institutions.

 And there are those forces in the world that aren’t necessarily “competing”, but find our democratic ways abhorrent.  The terrorists; from Hezbollah and Hamas to Isis and the Haqqani Network, have a religious fervor to disrupt America (here’s the State Department list).

But those aren’t the most insidious threats to America.  

From Within

The CBS news show “Sixty Minutes” this week, interviewed Shelby Busch, the Vice Chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party (Phoenix).  She made it clear there was no level of “factual evidence” that would convince her that the elections aren’t “fixed”.  Even clear evidence presented by a fellow Republican, election administrator Steve Richter, isn’t enough to convince her.  In fact, she threatened to “lynch” him for suggesting the elections were fair.

From election-deniers to anti-vaxxers, Americans are overwhelmed with attacks on our institutions.  Some assertions are ridiculous, like “evidence” of government control of hurricanes being aimed at Republican voters (the flight charts of the Hurricane Hunters).  Some are insidious; “FEMA spent all the disaster money on migrants, so there’s none available for relief in North Carolina”.  Each one creates another doubt in the integrity of our institutions.  

Who in the United States benefits from loss of “faith” in our institutions?   Who has “congruent” interests with our world rivals?  And who talked to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin seven times, while surrounded by purloined National Security documents?

You know who.

Embedded

I spent much of 1977 “embedded” in American politics.  After working for the Carter/Mondale campaign in 1976, I went to Washington, DC in January to attend the inauguration, then to study at American University.  As part of my program, I also worked in Congressman Tom Luken’s (D-Cincinnati) office, first as a legislative intern, then later as a staff scheduler.   After a spring semester immersed in Government, I came home to Cincinnati for the summer, now working at Luken’s local office.  My job:  to organize the Congressman’s schedule, by the half-hour, from 7am to 9pm for every moment he was in town, and then, to accompany him to many of those events.

I learned a lot about Government, and about politics in that year.  I also learned a lot about working for a “difficult” boss.  Luken’s reputation as “tough” was well earned.  I can say this:  over that summer, other than one senior staffer, I was fired “the least”.  But that first time was a shock.  A United States Congressman was screaming and swearing on the phone, saying I was done.  Then, the next day, that same Congressman screamed and swore at me again, because I wasn’t at work.  The Cincinnati Democratic “rite of passage” of working for Luken taught me to have a thicker skin, and a more elaborate vocabulary.

Star Wars

Any distraction that summer of ‘77 was welcome.  So one night, I loaded the neighbor kids into my 1967 Volkswagen Squareback, and headed to the movies.   There was a new space saga on that everyone was talking about, called “Star Wars”.   If you now watch what is called “The New Hope”, it doesn’t have quite the luster it had back in “the day”.  Special effects have come a long way in forty-seven years, much of the progress made by Star Wars creator George Lucas and his company, Industrial Light and Magic.  But in 1977 it was almost overwhelming on the big screen.  We had no idea that it would become embedded on our culture for a half-century, but we did fall in love with the characters from the very first.

And we learned the mystic traditions and powers of the Jedi, and the Force.  Our first example was when Jedi Knight Obi Wan Kenobi was able to direct Imperial Stormtroopers away from the hero, Luke Skywalker, and his “droids”.

• Obi Wan: (with a small wave of his hand) – You don’t need to see his identification
• Stormtrooper: We don’t need to see his identification
• Obi Wan: These aren’t the droids you’re looking for
• Stormtrooper:  These aren’t the droids were looking for
• Obi Wan:  He can go about his business
• Stormtrooper:  You can go about your business
• Obi Wan: Move along
• Stormtrooper:  Move along, move along.

It was our first exposure to “Jedi Mind Tricks”.  And from that moment on the screen, the term “Jedi Mind Tricks” entered our vocabulary.  It means, getting folks to ignore something that’s in plain sight.

One final memory from that first exposure to Star Wars.  Driving home in my four-speed Volkswagen with the kids,  there might have been some “X-Wing Starfighter” maneuvers.  No laws were broken, but we weren’t going to get blown up by any “Tie-Fighters” on Springfield Pike either!

Covid

In fact, “mind tricks” are so common today, we might not even realize they’re happening.  Two entire historic events, are “disappeared” from our collective memory;  “these aren’t the droids you’re looking for”.  And that creates a direct impact on our political decisions today.

The first event is the Covid pandemic.  It was only three and a half years ago, but we have collectively “disappeared” it from our memories.  Part of the reason; we didn’t get to publicly mourn the losses.  Like our memory, the dead in Covid literally disappeared – we couldn’t say goodbye, go to a funeral, or gather friends and families for comfort.  Another reason is that we were isolated, individually or in small family groups; cut off from jobs or friends.  Much of our “connection” was through screens (I virtually taught 120 kids a day).  But we discovered that virtual wasn’t the same as real; it was too easy to just “move along, move along”.

Four Years Ago

When campaigns ask are we better now than we were four years ago, the answer is, “of course we are”.  Four years ago, Donald Trump had Covid, and was whisked to Walter Reed Hospital for experimental treatments. Four years ago gas prices were low, because people still couldn’t go places or do things. But, four years ago the unemployment rate was almost 7%; 11 million Americans were unable to find work. 

Some candidates for office are depending on this “Jedi Mind Trick”.  They want us to remember the before-Covid times, without the “payback” of the year and a half we all lost in our lives (and more) because of Covid.  Why is that?  So that we don’t give any credit to those who came into office and brought the Nation to recovery from the Covid recession.  The United States had the best recovery from Covid in the world.  Yes, prices went up.  But Americans have jobs, they have goods and services, they regained their lives and their friendships.  And we did it without the economic depression that most economists saw as inevitable.  

January 6^th

And now, politicians like Republican Vice Presidential Candidate JD Vance are asking us to re-write another memory of that era; the January 6^th, 2021, insurrection.  The picture he paints is of a “peaceful protest” by justified Americans, demanding that a stolen election be returned.  He wants us to see his candidate, Donald Trump, as blameless for the mob that descended on the Capitol and threatened to kill Vice President Pence and Speaker Pelosi.  He wants us to “move along, move along” to the future, as his Party lays the same groundwork for insurrection that they laid at the end of 2020.  

They want us to not believe “our lying eyes”.  We are to see hooligans as patriots, and those that schemed to overthrow our Constitution as heroes.  If they can convince us of that, then we can easily elect the schemers and ignore the real patriots who saved our Republic.  And the final “mind trick”.  Democrats don’t like Trump.  Two people have tried to kill Trump because they don’t like him.  Therefore, the assassins must be Democrats.  Trump is a martyr, a victim, to be glorified.  Democrats are the “hooligans”, willing to go to any length to stop Trump.  

After watching all of the Star Wars saga, we learned that the Force can be used by both evil and good, but that the “dark side” ultimately doesn’t win out.  It’s always a choice, between dark and light; with dark side offering immediate rewards, and the light usually longer term gains.  And like the Saga, we are asked to make a choice now.  As we make that decision, don’t fall for “Jedi Mind Tricks”.  We cannot ignore the past with a “small wave of his hand”.  We must see it all; then we can decide.

Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! …Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!  – Patrick Henry to the Virginia House of Burgesses, March 23, 1775

Actually Begun

It’s October 6^th, thirty days before election day.  But, of course, in our modern era, “the war is actually begun!!”.  Seven states are already voting.  Here in Ohio, voter registration ends tomorrow, and early voting starts Tuesday (voting information).   It’s estimated that at least 40% of votes will be cast before November 5^th.  (And it’s not that old Democratic joke: “Vote early and vote often.”)  This year, both campaigns are encouraging early voting.  It’s not just to make sure that “their” voters actually cast a ballot.  It’s a “money” thing.  When a vote is cast, that  fact is immediately registered on the voter list (that they voted, not how they voted).  Campaigns can stop campaigning to those voters, using the resources directly to those who have not voted.

Want to help your candidate?  Vote early, by mail or in-person, and get it over with.  It’s kind of like Christmas shopping.  Sure, you can be the person on Christmas Eve, desperately waiting in line for the last minute bargains.  But there’s always that issue, the “perfect gift” is out-of-stock.  Election day voting is “fun”.  There’s lines and excitement; the feeling of being part of the great American experiment in real-time.  But there’s always the issues; car, weather, job; all things that might get in the way of casting your ballot.  So make the campaigns happy, vote early (not often). 

Minute-by-Minute

Back in August, at the Democratic Convention, there was a new spirit in the Democratic Party.  Harris was uplifting:  instead of “just” saving Democracy, she was offering a new vision beyond “We are not going back”.  And that’s still true.  But, now a month later, there is also a growing dread.  After everything thrown at the Trump campaign, after all the minute-by-minute lying Trump and Vance have done; it’s still an extremely narrow election. 

Part of that is also “theatre”.  The two major polling averages, Real Clear Politics and 538; use a greater number of “Red” polls, done with a bias towards the Republican side.  Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg lists twenty-seven polls that are “red-leaning”, including:

Daily Mail, Cygnal, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Napolitan Institute, Public Opinion Strategies, Rasmussen, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, and (of course) the Wall Street Journal.  

More “red” polls, more “redder” numbers in the average.  No matter how well the Harris/Walz ticket does, the average still slants “red”.  Today, Real Clear Politics averages has Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.  But in the swing states, where the Electoral College will be determined, it’s tied 48% to 48%.  And that’s the “slanted” version.

Stressors

So why all the mumbling and jumbling of numbers?  Because we have reached that point in the election, where the beginning is long ago, and the end too far away.   For those who are attuned, the adrenalin tap has been on full (like Trump’s giant water valve) for two months.  All of the chemical stress takes a toll, and it’s easy to start to despair.  And those damn numbers don’t help.  So add a grain of salt (or a bag) to the flood of polling data:  remember they are “leaned” in a direction. (For those of you who are MSNBC fans, and struggle with Steve Kornacki who seems to always have “bad” news – remember he’s using these same numbers.  As my programmer friends used to say, “Garbage in, Garbage out”).

Want to unstress?  Do something.  Put up a sign, knock on some doors; heaven forbid, have a conversation with your neighbor (probably not the one with the F**K Biden flag still flying).  Do what you can to support your candidate.  Write a letter, or an essay (or guest write one here on Our America).  Action always reliefs stress.  And the most important thing you can do, is vote.  

To paraphrase Patrick Henry: 

“I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me the ballot, or give me death!”

The 1983 movie “War Games” (Matthew Broderick, Ally Sheedy, Dabney Coleman) was about a high school student who hacked into the National missile defense computer. He started a “War Game” that almost resulted in a real nuclear war.  The only way to stop the “game” was to convince the computer of the absolute futility of nuclear attacks.  In the end, the computer grasped the idea, and said:  “Strange game.  The only winning move is not to play.” – War Games, 1983

Jack Smith’s Filing

Yesterday, the redacted transcript of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s evidence against Donald Trump was released.  It’s 152 pages packed with Grand Jury testimony about Trump’s conduct around the 2020 election, particularly in the time between the election in early November, and the Insurrection on January 6^th, 2021.    While I have the entire transcript, I’m still working my way through that mountain of evidence.  But, even with a cursory reading, the message is clear.  President Trump knew he lost the 2020 election.  He knew that there wasn’t voter fraud, that the election wasn’t “stolen” from him.  

But he continued to maintain that it was “stolen”. He marshalled his forces both inside and outside the White House to block the lawful transition of power:  first in the Courts, then in the states, then at the Congressional level.  He sent a mob to the Congress with the express intent to disrupt the official certification of the electoral votes. And he tried to force his Vice President, Mike Pence, into leading the effort.  

It’s more than unusual for all of the evidence to be put on public display prior to trial.  But this revelation is a product of Trump’s own legal actions.  In appealing Counsel Smith’s charges, Trump won a huge victory in the Supreme Court.  The Nation’s highest judicial body ruled that actions within the President’s “official duties” are immune from prosecution.  He can only be held legally accountable for actions in a “private” capacity.  And since the trial court, the Federal District Court in Washington, DC, is required to determine the differences between official and private, Smith presented all the information he deemed as “private” for the Court’s perusal. 

October Surprise

To be clear, there’s nothing shockingly new in the Smith document.  It simply provides detailed explanations to fill in much of what we learned through the January 6^th hearings, and from the volumes of reporting and “inside” books about the time.  The biggest revelation was from Mike Pence’s Grand Jury testimony.  He refused to cooperate in the Congressional hearings, so it’s the first time we know what he said and thought.  Not surprising; Pence painted a scene of growing personal pressure from Trump to interfere with the electoral certification. This was even after Pence made it clear he didn’t have the Constitutional power to do so.

The Smith transcript is “just another nail in the coffin” for the Trump campaign.  Of all the issues confronted in the 2024 Presidential election, the most significant one is what Democrats call Trump’s “existential threat” to our Constitutional Democracy.  The transcript is even more evidence that Donald Trump was willing to use the powers of the Presidency to remain in office, regardless of the outcome of the electoral and popular votes.  But this is not an “October Surprise”, along the lines of the Access Hollywood tape or the Weiner Laptop investigations of 2016.   There are few calls for Trump to drop out of the race. He and his running mate JD Vance continue to campaign.

Status-Quo

It seems there is no event, (barring assassination) that will alter the status-quo of the 2024 election.  All of the information is out, all of the debates are over.  And while the world roils from Ukraine to the Middle East, neither candidate is able to take advantage of the turmoil. Most Democrats are set; most MAGA-Republicans are too.   

If the past is prologue, then 2024 will be decided by a small sliver of voters in a few pivotal states.  The campaigns are both looking to influence that sliver, before they turn to the final, get out the vote efforts.  The apparent strategies in the  Vice Presidential debates, where the two combative candidates appeared to be almost collegial, were aimed at those small sub-groups.  

Among those groups are the identified Republicans who are not willing to vote for Trump.  They are “Never-Trumpers”.  And the question the campaigns ask is: are they going to vote for Harris? Or, as the 1983 movie “War Games” made famous, decide “…that the only winning move is not to play”?  Will they leave the Presidential election box empty? Or, as Utah Senator and former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney did, vote for someone else.  Romney wrote-in his wife Ann Romney in 2016.

Narrow Margin

Hillary Clinton won the 2016 popular vote by over three million votes, but still lost the Presidency in the Electoral College.  Joe Biden won by over seven million, and just eked out a narrow Electoral victory.  From the Harris side it’s not about not voting for Trump, it’s about voting for Harris/Walz.  Any other choice works to Trump’s advantage.  

Unlike “War Games”, the only winning move in this election is to play.  Regardless of tax policy, abortion laws, immigration controls or inflation; the existential threat of Trump to the American Constitutional system is clear.  Jack Smith’s indictment makes it even more apparent to what lengths Trump was willing to go to remain in power, regardless of the law, regardless of tradition, regardless of the Constitution.  That MUST be enough.  The only winning move in this situation is to vote for Harris.  Any other choice puts our Democracy (or for my indoctrinated friends, our Constitutional Republic) in jeopardy. 

We all must “play”. 

Smooth

Last night’s debate was a stark contrast.  Regardless of your side of our political chasm, there are some things that are factually true.  Senator JD Vance was smooth, silky smooth.  His answers were articulate, well thought out, and true or not, sold with conviction.  After watching him last night, I understand why billionaires Peter Thiel and Donald Trump and Trump’s real heirs, Don Junior and Eric, picked Vance as the “heir apparent” to MAGA world.  

Vance was willing to go to any length to sell his message.  He spent minutes convincing Americans to, “not believe your lying eyes”.  He tried to persuade us that as President, Donald Trump saved the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare.  It was really only a few years ago, when we sat up late into the night, watching the US Senate determine the fate of the medical insurance plan.  Many of us were still awake when Arizona’s John McCain walked into the Senate chamber up to the voting clerk, raised his damaged arm, and voted “thumbs down” to the effort to cancel the plan. 

Big Lies 

And we remember how furious Trump was, once again one-upped by the “Maverick”.  In fact, at the behest of Trump, the Republicans in Congress tried to end the Affordable Care Act thirty-nine times.  But, in the silky words of Senator Vance, Trump was really trying to save it.

But the big “lie” last night, was about the “Big Lie”.  Vance would have us believe that Trump was sending a mob to the Capitol on January 6^th, to “peacefully protest” (as opposed to “fight like Hell”) to stop the Presidential certification.  We watched that too; as it seemed the very existence of our Constitutional Democracy was in the balance.  But Vance blew it off; after all, Biden was inaugurated on January 20^th.  And Vance would not, could not, admit that Biden actually won.  As Governor Walz said, “That was a damning non-answer”. 

There were lots of other lies by Vance, so many, that there was no way to “fact-check” him.  The basic theory of debate, with two candidates present their positions, depends on facts and truth.  But Vance presented a perverted history that doesn’t stand up to the “smell test”.

Stage Fright

And what about Governor Walz?  No question, he was damn nervous, especially at the beginning.  Democrats watching the first ten minutes had  “Biden flashbacks”.  But the Governor settled down, and, other than an awkward question about what he did thirty-five years ago,  he handled questions well.  He got “wonky” on issues, something many undecided voters wanted; about agriculture, abortion, housing, and guns.  And he was able to call out Vance for de-humanizing migrants, using them as the scapegoat for every ill in America.  

Walz was not a “tough debater”.  He wasn’t after the “gotcha” moment with Vance.  And he wasn’t looking for the tag-line:  “You’re no Jack Kennedy”, or “I’m speaking”.  Instead, he was trying to answer the questions and explain his views to the American people.  

And Vance tried to “out-Walz”, Walz.  They had several answers where they turned to each other and said “we agree”.  And to my friends on the left, who wanted Vance’s blood and guts on the floor, that’s disappointing.  Walz let Vance seem like a “normal” politician, a Joe Biden versus Paul Ryan style Vice Presidential debate.  The Vance on the stage last night isn’t the same Vance that’s been on the campaign trail, and Walz let him “get away” with it.

No Harm

The first goal for both was to “do no harm”.  But Democratic core members are disappointed, kind of a “…how dare Walz be nice, and find common ground, with Vance!!!”.  We’ve all seen Walz on the stump, and we know he can be a firebrand, COACH WALZ at halftime.  So what happened?

The last two elections have been narrowly decided, and this one is going to be as well.  If 2016 was decided by 74,744 votes in the swing states, and 2020 decided by 44,000; how narrow will 2024 be?  There’s time for Harris and Walz (and the Obamas, and Bidens, and Clintons) to energize the core, but there’s not much time to reach those still undecided.  And Walz was reaching for them, presenting a political world of collegiality that, maybe, really doesn’t exist.  Walz wasn’t a firebrand; he was a Governor of a state, touting Minnesota’s achievements and applying them to the Nation.  

The small middle is looking for a “return to Normalcy”, and Walz presented that last night.   And Vance showed us he could sell “iceboxes to Eskimos” (probably not an appropriate phrase anymore).  He lied, cleanly, coolly, with a straight and “honest” face.   The goal of both debaters was clear:  reach those few in the middle who remain straddling the fence.  And frankly, both were able to do so.  

But I don’t think those few will be fooled by the obvious lies of Senator JD Vance, called out by Governor Walz.  And, that may make all the difference, five weeks from now when the votes are counted.

“Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way. She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country,” – Donald Trump, at a rally in Prairie du Chen, Wisconsin.

Fifth Grade Playground

“You’re stupid.  You’re Dad’s stupid too, but at least he was smart once.  He just got old.  You were born stupid”.  I  could’ve heard it on the 5^th grade playground while I was sub-teaching at school.  But, to be honest, I’d expect better from fifth graders.  After all, they are one step away from the emotional crucible of middle school.  The insults should be more creative.  And the whole parent side, “your Dad’s stupid too”, is just dumb, carefully answered by, “You don’t even know my Dad” or the ultimate payback, “My Dad’s dead!!!!”.  So, like any good teacher, I’d break up the insults, both for being mean, and for lacking in creativity.  That’s never going to work next year in the Middle School.

Or at least I would, but it’s not happening on the fifth grade playground in the shadow of the geodesic climbing dome.  And it’s not an argument about who got “knocked out” in “Gaga Ball” (now all the rage, a cross between four square and dodge ball in an enclosed octagon).  In fact, it’s happening on America’s greatest “debate” stage, the campaign for the Presidency of the United States.

Seriously

You’d think the first thing a candidate for President would want to be is serious.   I mean, no one wants the most powerful person, the avowed leader of the free world, the person in charge of the weapons to destroy the entire planet, to be “un-serious”.   That doesn’t mean candidates can’t laugh, enjoy the show, and even dance to the rally music.  But when it comes down to it, to the issues and crises of our times, it’s not a laughing matter.   This is serious stuff, for serious people.  The “you’re stupid” argument should have been left on the playground, actually, the second grade playground.

Oh wait, we “adulted up” the language.  Instead of “stupid”, it’s now “mentally disabled”.  That “adulting” doesn’t really change the issue, but it does manage to insult not only the other party, but everyone who actually suffers from mental disabilities; from brain cancer survivors to stroke victims.  And many of them can vote; so, nice job there. 

All’s Fair

There are legitimate differences between the Presidential candidates.  Issues like immigration, abortion, managing the economy, tariffs and taxation, handling a complex world situation, and the growing diversity of the American population and life; all require serious solutions.   In a “West Wing” world, the candidates would layout their plans, and the voters would decide.

But, my “West Wing” reference is dated, and so is my hope that our politics could rise above personal insult.  Michelle Obama used to say, “When they go low, we go higher” back in the day.  But that day, at least for one side of the election, is long gone.  Both sides learned the other lesson of American politics:  “All’s fair in love and war…and politics”.  So in our current era, our politics trends to the lowest common denominator.   Even the network news is giving up on accuracy:  CBS won’t factcheck tonight’s Vice Presidential debate.  Facts are too “controversial”, I guess.

The Context

So we are left with a campaign where one side uses childish insults, and makes things up out of whole cloth.  I’ve already written about “eating the pets” (Scared Dogs).  But after some consideration, I don’t think “eating the pets” was some leap of Facebook fancy that JD Vance picked up by happenstance.  It’s too “convenient” to be a mistake.  As Vance himself said, he needed to create (his words) a “context” to raise the issue of immigrants.  

But the Trump/Vance ticket is making inroads into the Latino vote.  They couldn’t afford to have Vance’s “context” built around Central or South American migrants; that might offend their new  Latino Republican friends in Florida, Texas, Nevada and Arizona.  So they had to “find” a different migrant group, even if they were LEGAL migrants,INVITED to Springfield, Ohio to help fill jobs in that the hollowed-out post-industrial town.  Springfield was dying; the Haitian migrants help in the recent revitalization.

Strategic Racism

Haitians aren’t Latino, they’re Creole.  Their native language is based on French, not Spanish.  And they are Black, not the mixture of Spanish, Native American and African of many Latinos.  So attacking them was a “safe” bet for the Trump/Vance campaign.  They would only offend those that weren’t likely to support them anyway (though they offended the Haitian vote in Florida, another key state in a potential Trump victory).  

My point:  attacking the Haitians in Springfield was a strategic decision, not just some Trump “word salad” (he’d call it a “weave”).  It even took precedence over the Latino gangs in Aurora, Colorado.  That makes it all the worse:  the Trump/Vance team aren’t fools, they’re racists.   

And if you want to say I’m “name calling” too; damn right.  But at least I’m doing it at the high school level, not like some second grader.