Who’s Smart
Our politicians think we’re not very smart. And, surprisingly, it’s not just one party. Politicians on both sides of the aisle seem to think “we the voters” just are, well, kind of dumb. That’s a dangerous assumption to make. American voters are often very astute. An example: here in Ohio on the recent abortion amendment, voters who wanted the amendment to pass first had to vote No on Issue One in August, then Yes on Issue One in November. That mental gymnastics was awkward, but voters got it. The Amendment passed.
I listen to commentators telling us that Donald Trump is shifting on the abortion issue, or that Harris is more pro-Palestinian than Biden. With deep and knowing voices, they let us know that the candidates are “moving” to the middle, and might be in danger of losing their base voters. As the Marjorie Stoneman Douglas kids so often said: I call “BS”.
On the Ropes
Let’s take Trump’s “gymnastics” on abortion. First, Donald Trump was pro-choice, way back before the end of the “Apprentice” and his reinvention as a Presidential candidate. Then he was pro-life, so much so that he talked about how women having abortions ought to be punished, on air with Chris Matthews back in 2015. It was part of his campaign to earn the pro-life vote, and it worked.
He is the man who brought us Supreme Court Justices Gorsuch (in place of Merrick Garland), Kavanaugh, and Comey-Barrett (in place of what should have been another Democratic appointee). Trump changed the nature of the Supreme Court, and the course of American legal rights. And he assured the Nation that over-ruling Roe v Wade was what “everyone wanted”: millions of American women lost control of their own health care choices. He paid back his pro-life supporters in full.
But Trump is up against “the ropes” in what may be another narrowly decided election. He needs to expand his “base” of voters, a very difficult political maneuver. So now he’s against a national abortion ban, and he’s so in favor of In-Vitro Fertilization that he wants the government to pay for it. Trump thinks that there’s some incredibly narrow segment of voters who will say, “Oh, he’s kind of pro-choice again, I’ll vote for him”.
Soccer Moms
Really: the guy who (with the help of Mitch McConnell) single-handedly change America’s abortion policy for the first time in fifty years? The man who “slayed” Roe? He’s Pro-Choice? Few voters are going to be fooled by that. And as for his “base” slipping; the pro-life voters know who exactly who their candidate is. With “a wink and a nod”, they’ll let him say anything he wants. Donald Trump has “told them who he is”, and they listened. They’re certainly not going to vote for Kamala Harris, and they aren’t going to stay home either. They know a “feint” when they see one.
So, it’s all about what is condescendingly called “soccer moms”. It’s the suburban women’s vote, in places like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Milwaukee (and Columbus, Ohio too; though probably not enough to make a difference in the state’s outcome). That’s the voting block most mobilized by the end of Roe. States as “red” as Ohio, Kentucky and Kansas stood for pro-choice at the ballot box. Soccer Moms normally vote Republican, but the abortion issue may have altered that paradigm. This is the first Presidential election where abortion is more than just a theoretical issue, and the Trump strategy is to throw those Moms “a bone” of pro-choice rhetoric. I don’t think that “bone” is going to work; Soccer Mom’s aren’t fools.
Thread the Needle
Meanwhile, Vice President Harris has her own issue to deal with. A narrow segment of her “base voters” are pro-Palestinian, and believe that the American government hasn’t done enough to stop the Israeli destruction in Gaza. The Harris campaign “ain’t so dumb”: they’re letting President Biden take the heat when it comes to the Middle East. While Harris has made it clear, even in her nomination acceptance speech, that she supports Israel; she is trying to shade a little closer to the Palestinian cause than Biden.
Her base voters have nowhere to go either. It’s not like Trump, beholden to the Sheldon Adelson fortune and close friend of Bebe Netanyahu, is going to be anything but “all-in” for Israel. The Harris campaign’s concern is that those pro-Palestinian voters will simply choose “not to play”, and stay at home on election day.
So, it’s a second group, one numerically more significant, that Harris is trying to motivate: young college kids. And that’s where Harris is trying to thread the Middle East needle; for Israel, but, not so pro-Netanyahu.
Young voters are notoriously fickle. They usually don’t show up at all. The last time they made a significant difference was in the Obama 2008 victory. That’s not about “lazy kids”, it’s all about motivating them to make a difference. If they can find their way through the Harris-Palestinian dilemma, maybe they can impact the election. But they are just as likely to also take the third route, and choose “not to play”.
As George Bush so eloquently misquoted The Who: “ fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” Be sure though:both candidates and both campaigns; they probably aren’t fooling the voters.
