What Was
It’s the week of the Democratic Convention. Two months ago, this was a moment fraught with peril. Joe Biden was in deep trouble, mired in the impossible task of “proving” his own fitness in the future tense. While he has an enormous record of success in the three years of his Presidency: rebuilding after Covid and “landing” the inflationary economy; legislation dealing with infrastructure and climate and reducing drug costs; appointing more Federal Judges than any President and ending America’s longest war; all of that didn’t matter. It wasn’t even the old political phrase, “What are you doing for me today”. It was worse, the unanswerable, “What will you be able to do tomorrow”.
Thousands of pro-Gaza demonstrators were looking to repeat the history of Chicago in 1968, when anti-Vietnam War protests disrupted the convention and the police caused chaos. They were poised to achieve the same “success” in 2024 as well. The riots of 1968 created a barrier so high for Democrats that the Republican, Richard Nixon, a staunch war supporter, was able to win the Presidency that November. Pro-Gaza demonstrators this week hopefully learned that “whole” lesson. A Harris defeat is a Trump victory, guaranteeing total support for every possible action Israel chooses to take, regardless of the cost in Palestinian lives.
Untying the knot of the Democratic Presidential choice looked unsolvable. Running with Biden, while well-deserved and earned, looked like a sure path to defeat. And that defeat would be more than just Biden, it seemed the guardrails in the Senate and House might fall as well, leaving Trump with a fully unified government to work his Project 2025 “nightmare”.
Sacrifice
But choosing some other candidate in a month’s timespan also seemed impossible. The “blessing” of a deep Democratic bench: Harris, Whitmer, Buttigieg, Moore, Newsom, Shapiro; all pointing to 2028 as “their time”; would surely “take their shot” in an open vote. And that would create typical Democratic chaos, a confusion that even a Convention wouldn’t clarify. It wasn’t a path to the Presidency, it was one to fractionalization that would never heal, at least, in time for the election of 2024.
Biden cut the knot, sacrificing his own political career to change the paradigm. And he immediately paved the way for Harris to inherit his mantle, demanding that the “bench” follow his lead. Any other action became an act of disloyalty, and worse, giving “aid and comfort” to Trump. Harris became the presumptive nominee in thirty-six hours, the bench all fell in line. So now, going into a week of “Democracy”, where do we stand?
Masterful
Harris is masterful in handling her candidacy. She spread out her rivals endorsements, so that her campaign was constantly in the front of the news-cycle. She locked-in the most important Democratic “royalty”, Pelosi, the Clintons and the Obamas, all presenting a united front. And she carefully chose a Vice Presidential candidate to balance herself. She’s a California politician; Tim Walz’s is a Minnesota Governor, school teacher, National Guard Sergeant, and football coach. She’s a product of an HBUC education, he’s got very-Midwest degrees. And, of course, she’s a She, Black, of South Asian descent. He’s a White guy from Nebraska and Minnesota. You couldn’t balance the ticket any better than that.
And she didn’t take a Senator, any Senator. That leaves Democrats with a better-than-even chance of holding the US Senate majority in a very tough electoral map. Democrats hold a two-vote majority in the current Senate, but they will lose one of those after Joe Manchin retires and West Virginia finally matches their Senate seat to the rest of their all-Republican state. So Democrats are down to a one-vote lead, with five seats teetering on the brink.
Balance of Power
In spite of the multiple millions of dollars spent, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown in Ohio seem safe (so far). Democrat Reuben Gallego in Arizona’s open seat election, narrowly leads Kari Lake (up by 2% in the most recent poll, taken by the very Republican Club for Growth). Polling also shows that Democrat Jackie Rosen is clearly ahead in the Nevada. Which leaves Democrat incumbent John Tester in very-Red Montana, where polling shows a close race against Republican Tim Sheehy.
All of the Democratic Senate candidates have been buoyed by the successes of the new Harris-Walz campaign, also leading in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. And, of course, if Harris wins the Presidency, Vice President Tim Walz would cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.
In the House of Representatives, re-districting in several states, especially New York, favors a Democratic majority. Republicans hold a six-vote majority in the 435 member body, so a flip of only four seats would change control. A powerful Harris-Walz ticket is likely to pull several more seats as well, leading to Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker of the House.
Exciting New Promise
So the convention starts tomorrow. There’s lots of “official” labels, but it comes down to this. Monday Democrats will celebrate the successes of Joe Biden and his administration, with the President himself speaking. Tuesday will be about “vision”, highlighted by former President Barack Obama’s speech. Wednesday will be Tim Walz’s night, but the Clintons will also be on the podium. And, of course, Thursday will be all Kamala Harris’s night. What could have been a Democratic disaster, now will be a coronation of a master campaigner for President.
It’s 2024, a year that so far proves that literally anything can happen. But, if the Democrats continue the trend-line of the last few weeks, and the city of Chicago and the Palestinian protestors don’t make the same mistakes as 1968, the future looks bright. What was the “peril” of just a month ago, now looks like an exciting new promise for 2025.
