Block
I was not a successful high school “math” student. In fact, I was a “math block kid”. If you put a number on the blackboard (chalk dust and “sqeeeeeeek”), I usually froze. But I still had to make it through Geometry class. And while I don’t remember much, other than Coach Parker licking that chalk dust off his fingers, there are a few things that still stick.
In solving a geometry problem you have different sets of data. The first set is the “givens”, the things that are true about the problem. Those “givens” are inflexible, a “given this, then solve that” sort of thing. In looking at the American electorate of 2024, we need to start with those givens, or in more modern political parlance, the “baked-in” parts of our voting equation.
Baked-In
We know (it’s given) that the United States is about 45% Republican and 45% Democrat. But that given isn’t quite as monolithic as it sounds. Really about 35% of today’s Republicans are MAGA Republicans, and really about 40% of the Democrats are “Yellow Dog Democrats”. The remainders just “usually” vote for their party, but aren’t “diehards”. Regardless, the Presidential race will be determined not by that 90%, but by the 10% remaining.
We also know that there’s not a lot of people, even in the 10%, who will make a binary choice between Trump or Harris. Some will vote for Trump or choose an independent like Kennedy or Oliver (Libertarian). Or they will sit out the election all together. On the other side, some will vote for Harris, or Stein or West, or more likely, choose not to vote at all.
So the strategy for both sides should be: make sure you get your 45% out to vote, then convince 5% plus one to choose your side. And that would make perfect sense if this was a simple algebra equation (yep, I switched math classes), one where the greatest sum wins. But we don’t choose Presidents that way here in the United States.
Fifty-One Elections
While the popular vote has its place, in the end the US holds a series of fifty-one separate elections, to choose electors from each state and the District of Columbia. Those 538 electors are the ones who decide the President and Vice President. In all but two states, if a candidate wins the majority of popular votes, they get ALL of the electoral votes. And this means that in a large sense, the votes of a whole lot of people really don’t matter all that much (ask Hillary Clinton).
Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes. The state popular vote winner gets two, and then the vote winner of each Congressional District in the state gets one. So Nebraska usually is four for Republicans and one for Democrats (Omaha). Maine is usually the reverse – three for Democrats and one for Republicans (Northern Maine).
Let’s take California. In 2020 over 17 million people voted in the Presidential election. Biden got over 11 million votes, and Trump 6 million. That result was really “baked-in” before the election even started. California is a secure Democratic state. So Biden got all 55 of California’s electoral votes, and the 6 million folks who voted for Trump, got cancelled out.
Conversely, South Carolina, the state where the 2020 Democratic primary put Joe Biden in control, had a 72% turnout in the general election. Out of almost 2.5 million votes, Trump got 55% and Biden 44%. So Trump got ALL of South Carolina’s 9 electoral votes, and Biden’s 1.1 million votes didn’t change a thing.
Change Horses
All of this creates a whole new “given”. Given that most states in the US are clearly one party or the other, then getting their electoral votes is simply “defending” the base. Which means that the Presidential election all comes down, not that 10%, but to the few states where it’s uncertain which candidate will win. It’s the 10% voter who lives in a swing state that makes all the difference.
We all know the litany of “swing states”: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. And we all know the “possible swing states”; New Mexico, New Hampshire, North Carolina (Democrats have aspirations for Florida and Texas, but they haven’t come true. And, sadly, Ohio doesn’t seem to “swing” anymore). That’s where the Presidential elections in the past decade were won or lost; the swing and “possible” states. All the rest are “givens”. This election will be decided by the very slim margins that determine the outcomes in those swing states. In 2016, it was about 77,000 votes that decided for Trump. In 2020, it was around 45,000 that decided for Biden.
So why all of this talk about the “math” of Presidential elections? Because when Democrats changed “horses in mid-stream”, switching from Biden to Harris; it’s wasn’t just about the 10% in the middle. The question came down to the targeted swing states: which candidate, irrespective of age, is likely to eke out a win in the swing states that will decide our next President?
Slivers
There’s different pivotal groups in those states: White men, Women, Black voters and young and old voters. Biden’s “super power” in 2020, was his ability to maintain his 45%, then gain votes beyond with older Americans, and particularly among middle aged white men. (Middle aged white men are notoriously Republican these days, but Biden was able to win a greater share than most Democrats). As the last two elections were won “on the margins in the swing states”, Biden was able to do what Hillary Clinton could not. His super power made the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
So the question is: now that Democrats changed candidates, what is the impact on these “slivers of slivers of demographics” in the swing states? Our first given (or hope): assume the already chaotic Democratic Party chooses not to commit political suicide by having an open convention. (It’s not that Dems shouldn’t be “democratic”, it’s that the wounds opened in the contest would never heal before election day). Given that, now Democrats turned to the serving Vice President as replacement, what difference will Kamala Harris make?
Super Powers
Certainly the Vice President would have less appeal to older Americans than the President did. And it’s just as certain there will be a “negative” impact by the first Black and West Asian woman to run as a major party nominee for President. Before you throw down the “racist/sexist card”, the facts are just the facts. There are many Americans who didn’t vote for Hillary Clinton because she was a woman, or Barack Obama because he was Black. Those voters haven’t disappeared – though it’s more than likely those folks are voting for Trump anyway.
Harris has a different “super power”. She is likely to increase the turnout among the Black community, among White suburban women, and with younger voters as opposed to Biden. She might perform a mathematic miracle by changing the “given”, and making the 45% greater by getting normal non-voters to the polls. So while Biden influences the 5%, Harris may bring more voters to the equation all-together.
Bring More to the Table
She will have to. Harris won’t cut into the Western Pennsylvania (White men) vote like Biden did, but she may well increase the vote from Philadelphia (Black) and its suburbs (Women) enough to offset the difference. She could run even stronger in Georgia than Biden. And Harris won’t run as well as Biden in the rural country of Wisconsin. But she might be able to drive up the vote in Madison (University of Wisconsin) and urban Milwaukee.
So here’s the simple math (thank goodness for simple!). It takes 270 Electoral votes to win the Presidency. The “base” Democratic electoral votes – just the “safe” states; add up to 223. Add Pennsylvania’s 19, Michigan’s 15, and Wisconsin’s 10 and there’s only three more votes needed. Enter Maine, with a likely 3 of 4, and the Democrat is President again. (Watch who Harris chooses for her Vice Presidential candidate. Don’t be surprised if it’s Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania. He checks a lot of the boxes).
It’s hard to believe, but Democrats still have an easier path to the Presidency than MAGA-Republicans. Trump’s base is unassailable, but it’s also difficult to grow. Nothing he’s done so far, including surviving an assassin, is making his base bigger. But the MAGA base is motivated: they will show up. Democrats have the ability to expand the number of voters, just like Biden did in 2020 (he received the most votes ever cast for a President, almost 12 million more than Obama in 2008).
For Harris, where does that expansion have to occur? It better be in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – then hold the rest.
That’s the “given” we all have to face.
