Afghanistan
There are two places in the world where the “major powers” have been abject failures. The first is Afghanistan, where both the Soviet Union (now Russia) and the United States went in with high hopes, and left decades later in utter failure. The Soviet failure was a “brick” in the wall in the fall of the Soviet Union. The US, could claim success in gaining vengeance against Al Qaeda. But we switched to “nation-building”, removing the Taliban and inserting more “democratic” forces. And that ended up in the longest war in our history.
The Taliban proved more resilient and dedicated than we were; willing to sacrifice far more than we would ask our own troops. It took over twenty years to say “enough”, and as ugly as the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was, it was the only possible end to an interminable war. Vietnam had folks hanging from the last helicopters; in Afghanistan they were hanging from the landing gear of the last C-17’s. Both were awful, but inevitable; the images of hope going to die.
Middle East
The other location where “high hopes” go to die is the Middle East, and particularly, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Almost every President has tried to use the substantial influence of their office to find some ultimate solution to the “twice-promised” land; and while there were limited successes (Carter at Camp David, Clinton at Oslo, Trump and the Abrahamic Accord), in the end, they proved to only dampen the fire for a while.
Approaching a solution is perhaps the most dangerous point of all. When President Carter got Israeli Prime Minister Begin and Egyptian President Sadat to agree to peace at Camp David, Sadat was soon assassinated by extremist Egyptian military forces. When President Clinton negotiated a two-state agreement with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Rabin in Oslo, both were undermined by extremists in their own camps. Arafat could not bring all of the Palestinian extremists, notably Hamas, in line. And Rabin lost an election to Benjamin Netanyahu, who had no interest in allowing a “two-state solution” to continue.
And when President Biden seemed to have Saudi Arabia in position to normalize relations with Israel, Hamas struck in such horrific way that it triggered an inevitable response of Israeli invasion.
Biden
President Biden faces a similarly difficult conundrum now. It started with the full moral justification of Israel’s response to the October 7th Hamas terrorist assault. Every sovereign nation has the right to defend itself. To Israel, October 7th was more than equal to the 9-11 attack on the United States that triggered our involvement in Afghanistan. Biden, reasonably, pledged full US support to our single best ally in the Middle East, a pledge that even included a physical hug of sympathy and support from Biden to Netanyahu.
But, predictably, Netanyahu took the “opportunity” of October 7th to seek the ultimate extinction of Hamas, regardless of the non-Hamas civilian casualties in Gaza. Hamas is deeply embedded among the civilians, in a region where over half the population in under twenty. The casualty numbers include both Hamas “soldiers” and civilians; and neither Israel nor Hamas bothers to differentiate between the two. But there are so many children killed, it’s hard to contemplate or justify.
Who is a Fighter?
The most recent example; the rescue of four hostages from a densely populated urban environment, proves the point. Israeli Special Forces were discovered and a huge firefight broke out. While they managed to extract the four hostages with only one Israeli death, estimates range from 100 to 250 civilians dead. How many of them were Hamas fighters, and how many were innocents caught in the crossfire, it’s hard to tell. Israel justifies the damage by saying it’s Hama’s fault for hiding hostages in the middle of civilians. The American answer seems to be, “Yes, But…?”
Politically all sides have a stake in the game. Netanyahu must have absolute victory, the destruction of Hamas, or face removal from office and worse, perhaps imprisonment for corruption. Any solution less than that is unacceptable to him. Hamas, of course, wants to survive. They want time to regroup, and get their leadership out of the tunnels and safely into exile (perhaps in the luxury hotels in Doha, Qatar).
Hope
And Joe Biden has his own political needs. The wanton Israeli bombings, and the looming threat of Palestinian famine pressure Biden to find some “ending”. It’s not just for humanitarian reasons, but also to mollify Democrats who sympathize with the Palestinian cause (different than sympathizing with Hamas). So Biden is pressing Netanyahu to “bend”, quietly using Israeli dependence on US military assistance to apply force. And Biden is offering Hamas the time they so desperately need. But Hamas is demanding more than just a six-week pause in the destruction. It’s hard to see where either will find a political “up-side” to Biden’s plan, now endorsed by the United Nations.
But, no one seems to have an alternative. Israeli destruction of Hamas has made them a pariah state in the world. The International Court already charged Netanyahu with war crimes. And Hamas earned every bit of the retribution that Israel is so happy to give. The bloody, savage, assault of October 7th is unforgiveable. But Biden sees what the world sees: a distinction between Hamas and the Palestinians that live in Gaza.
How much pressure can Biden put on Israel? And who will put the pressure on Hamas to “take a deal”? Or is this, like Afghanistan, a place where hope for all sides goes to die?
