Apocalypse Now
If you’re a Democrat, the election of 2024 seems apocalyptic. Progressive media sends the message over and over again: if the MAGA-Republicans win the Presidency, it might be the last free election in the American “experiment”. While this seems breathlessly catastrophic, there are world data-points to fact-check the claim. Look at Europe, particularly Russia, Hungary, Poland, and Turkey: authoritarian leaders, freely elected, have altered democracy into something more reminiscent of Mussolini’s Italy ( Hah – avoided “Godwin’s Law”). Fascism is on the rise.
But assuming (there’s that whole ass of you and me thing) that the Nation comes to its senses, dodges this bullet and once again elects Joe Biden, it doesn’t mean everything is “rosy”. A second Biden term will do little to alter the six-three conservative majority on the Supreme Court (though, obviously, the Deity could take a hand in that). Short of some kind of court-packing scheme, the Supreme Court can’t be counted on to protect the rights of individuals; now, or in the foreseeable future.
House Control
As the current deadlock in the Congress demonstrates, any President can be stymied by a recalcitrant House or Senate. The House is “locked-in” by nationwide Gerrymandering to a narrow partisan difference, and political control resides in those few districts that really can “swing” from one party to the other.
But signs look good for Democrats in the House. New York state redrew their Congressional districts once again, this time with State Court approval, and four Districts that went Republican in 2022 may well be back in the Democratic column. In addition, lawsuits in Alabama and Louisiana (and potentially Georgia and North Carolina) will put several other districts in play. And, of course, 2024 is a Presidential election year, likely to have a record voter turnout. That almost always benefits the Democratic vote.
With the House Republican by a slim two-vote margin now, it’s likely that Mike Johnson will conclude his term quickly, and Hakeem Jeffries will gain the gavel and become the first Black Speaker of the House in 2025.
Paddling Upstream
Which brings us to the US Senate. Currently, the Democrats have forty-eight seats and Republicans hold forty-nine. There are three “independents” in the Senate (King of Maine, Sanders of Vermont, and Sinema of Arizona) and all three organize with the Democrats, giving “Blue” a two vote margin of control. But, every two years, a third of the Senators are up for election. And this year, twenty-four of those seats are held by Democrats.
Democrats are on the defense in the Senate. The “good news”, only seven of those twenty-four seats are really competitive. The bad news – Democrats will start 2025 down one. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is retiring, and there isn’t another Democrat in the state that can win his seat. So, Republicans will start with a “tie”, requiring the Vice President to break it. Unfortunately the news doesn’t get much better, and Democrats will have to run the table to maintain control. Here are the “nuts and bolts” for Senate control in 2025.
Dems Up
In Arizona, independent (former Democrat) Sinema isn’t running for re-election. Congressman Reuben Gallego is the Democratic nominee, running against MAGA-Republican and failed 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. Everything is within the margins in Arizona, but Gallego has the advantage both in current polling and in raising money. Lake’s extremism turned off the “McCain Republicans” in 2022, and hopefully Gallego will spark a huge Hispanic turnout in the state – good for him, and good for Joe Biden.
Maryland should be a Democratic “no brainer”. But Ben Cardin is retiring from the seat, and there’s a scramble of Democrats trying to earn the nomination. Meanwhile, moderate Republican and former Governor Larry Hogan chose not to accept the “No Labels” offer of a quixotic Presidential bid, and is running for Senate instead. Even though Hogan is a “moderate”, if he wins, he’ll organize with the MAGA-Republicans in the Senate. Any Democrat should still have the advantage, but Hogan is a force to be reckoned with in Maryland, and shouldn’t be ignored.
Dems Even
Then there are the two incumbent Senators running “against the grain” of their states, John Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. In the past, both Senators were able to maintain their seats in spite of the statewide trend, but every time they’re on the ballot, a Democratic seat is in peril. Count on many millions of dollars backing their campaigns, and in Ohio, it doesn’t look like a particularly strong opponent for Brown. But for Democrats, Montana and Ohio must be a nail biter, even in a Presidential year.
In Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all Presidential swing states, the Senate candidates should have an easier time of re-election. Presidential turnouts should assure re-election, with Rosen, Casey and Baldwin all returning to office. While a Trump victory in any of those states could wash them out as well, it’s more likely those seats will hold.
Dem Dreams
Which leaves us with the Democratic “pipe dream” of changing Red Texas. Ted Cruz is clearly the least liked Senator in the chamber, and hasn’t been particularly popular in Texas either. But he survived a strong challenge from Beto O’Rourke back in 2018, and now faces a formidable opponent in Congressman (and former NFL linebacker) Colin Allred. They’ll be lots of money in that campaign as well, but betting on a Democrat to win Texas, is a lot like betting on one to win in Florida. It’s a great idea, who’s time hasn’t quite come – yet – maybe.
If everything went right for Democrats, except for Texas, they will have a majority based on the re-election of Vice President Harris. If there’s a single slip, then a second Biden Administration will face a Republican Senate, no longer moderated (if that’s what it was) by Mitch McConnell. A MAGA-Republican would be the Majority Leader, for at least the first two years. And don’t count on Senate “tradition” to hold with that “new sheriff” in town. Democrats might wish for the filibuster rule, but that might be a pipe dream too.
