The Rant
Here’s a short rant. I’m tired of hearing “pundits” talk about how uneducated Americans are when it comes to government and politics. I can tell you, for sure, that every kid who went to high school in the United States got a “government” or “civics” course, along with American History. Every American public school kid was “exposed” to the structure of our government, the process of our elections, and even the function of political parties.
Did they get it? Do they remember it fifteen years later? That, I can’t tell you. But the line I hear over and over again on the media is; “Well, we don’t teach civics anymore, so folks don’t know…” To use the succinct but eloquent phrase of the Marjorie Stoneman Douglas kids, “I call BS”. Americans knew, and remember again when they need to.
Whew; got that off my chest.
Parties
One of the harder concepts to teach in Government class is the four-part American Presidential election system. It’s not just “an election”. It’s a series of elections, caucuses, conventions, all leading to the major political parties choosing a candidate at their “big” convention. Then it’s another election, but that election isn’t a simple “winner and loser” election. It’s an election to choose “electors” to the Electoral College (that doesn’t even have a football team). And, as January 6th, 2021 made it extremely clear, even winning the most electors isn’t really a guarantee.
But to get back to the primary process, it’s a difficult concept for students to get. So it’s an election when everyone can vote, but they can only vote for the candidates in the party they choose to belong to. And, if you’re not in a party, you can’t vote for those candidates. But, in many states (like Ohio) you can switch parties by just asking for the other party’s ballot. So it sounds complicated, really more complicated than it actually is.
Join the Club
So I would explain it like this: the political parties are just clubs; clubs with a goal of running people for office. The primaries are the “clubs” voting for which candidate will represent their club against the other club. And only the “club” members can vote, that makes sense. People who aren’t in the “club” shouldn’t have a say in who the “club” chooses. So last night, “Super Tuesday”, was a whole bunch of state “clubs” choosing the candidate to represent their state at the National club convention come July (Republican) or August (Democrat).
Today, about 39% of voters are in the Democratic Club, and 29% are in the Republican Club (Ballotpedia). That leaves 32% of American voters who are left out of the “club” selection process. Since they aren’t members (however their state sets that up), they don’t get to choose. And there’s one other point that’s important. The “clubs” do the same things, and have similar elections – but they’re not the same size.
Horse Race
Last night’s media coverage was naturally slanted towards the Republican “club” elections. Of course it was. The Republicans had a “contest”, Trump versus Haley. And the Republicans had a question (answered now), who would their club choose. That’s opposed to the other “club”, who had the incumbent President. Biden was running essentially unopposed (sorry to point that out, obscure Congressman from Minnesota Mr. What’s-Your-Name??)
The media, and the public, want a competition, a “horse race”. There wasn’t really a horse race in the 2024 campaign on either side, but Nikki Haley tried to make one. Last night we watched the Haley effort breakdown on the backstretch. To push the horse race analogy to the limit: their putting the tent up around the “Haley horse” on the backstretch right now. They don’t shoot broken race horses anymore, they “euthanize” them quietly, on the track, under the tent, out of the view of the public.
Haley’s candidacy ended last night, it will be put out of its misery today.
My Club’s Bigger than Theirs
But keep in mind, the Republican “Club” is significantly smaller than the Democratic “Club”. What looks like an “even” horse race, isn’t, from the start. If every Republican comes out and votes for Trump, it’s 29% of the vote. If every Democrat votes for Biden, it’s 39%. Trump needs to get the lion’s share of the “no-club” vote to get elected, almost two-thirds. Biden doesn’t need quite as many “no-clubs”, about one-third.
The Presidential primary season ended last night – even though there will be more “club votes” on into June. And there are important things happening in those primaries. New Jersey, for example, will be choosing “club” candidates for the US Senate on the first Tuesday in June. Six Democrats are lining up to try to follow Bob Menendez, the current Democratic Senator under multiple criminal indictments. The two front runners, Congressman Andy Kim and the Governor’s wife, Tammy Murphy, are having a good “horse race”. But as far as Trump and Biden are concerned, the “fight” for the convention is over.
Like it or not, as Julius Caesar would say, “Alea iacta Est”, “the die is cast”. It’s the rematch of 2020, Biden v Trump, two old men vying for a job they’ve both done. Trump has to overcome his smaller “club”. Biden has to motivate his “club” to show up in November. And both have to find ways to sway the “non-clubbers”. Watch Biden start that motivation and persuasion tomorrow night. It’s time for another one of those “Civics Class” moments – The State of the Union Address.
Get your popcorn ready!!!!
