Month: March 2024

Easter Dawn

This is another in the “Sunday Story” series.  No politics today – just remembering Easter Sundays.

Dogs (of course)

It’s a gray Easter morning here in Pataskala, Ohio.  But I was definitely up to see the “dawn”, even if it was just a gradual lightening of the gray.  The dogs are “trained”, get up at 5:15 to go out.  Maybe, some days, I can persuade them to go back to sleep for a while afterwards, but by 6:30 it’s definitely time to go – BREAKFAST!!!!  Dogs are wonderful time keepers, but they don’t have calendars.  Easter Sunday isn’t on their plan. so I got to see the Easter “dawn”, like it or not.

Easter was never a huge deal in my family, certainly not like Christmas.  As a kid, I remember getting up, excited for Easter baskets.  It was all chocolate, all the time, plus a stuffed bunny.  Then we had to get dressed up for church.  After services when I was really young, Easter was also a day to visit “the aunts”.  We only had one “real” aunt nearby, my Dad’s sister Auntie “Del” (a child’s version of Aunt Adele).  And my Mom’s sisters were far away in England, people we saw on summer trips, or the occasional American visit.

Aunts

But we had other “Aunts” in Cincinnati, Aunt Leah and Auntie Fran.  And there was also Libby and Maggie, not “Aunts” in name, but good older friends of Mom.  Easter was often a day to visit some or all of them, particularly Auntie Fran Fries. 

Her son was an old school friend of Dad’s, and we were included in her family Easter plans.  The Fries had a family business, Fries and Fries in Cincinnati, that manufactured “flavors”.  If you grew near the Mill Creek Valley (where I-75 north of downtown in located today), you grew up to the fragrant smells coming from the Fries and Fries “flavor factory” just south of Galbraith Road.   It was on the “line” of fragrant smells on I-75 from north to south.  First you’d detect the Jim Beam Distillery, then Fries and Fries, and finally Proctor and Gamble’s “Ivorydale” works, now the St. Bernard Soap Company.  

Auntie Fran had a big mansion in College Hill (I think – but I was pretty young), and there were lots of kids there.  I remember Easter Egg hunts and a stairlift on the big winding formal stairs to the second floor.  I think we went there around the Fourth of July as well.

Scouts at Dawn

Later on, when we were living in Dayton, Ohio, my Boy Scout Troop worked at the Easter sunrise service at the Carrillon, the bell tower located on the southside of downtown.  We were up at 4:00am, and arrived by 5:30 in “full dress” Scout uniforms, with sashes (merit badge and Order of the Arrow) and the official red “lumber jack” jackets.  We got to see the sunrise and hear the bell selections, as we handed out programs and directed folks.  What I remember most, was wrangling my young “Tenderfoot” Scouts, eyes full of sleep, cajoling and prodding for to get their jobs done.  It wasn’t that they weren’t trying, they just couldn’t wake up.  That was back in the mid-1960’s, and it still goes on today (at least the service does, I’m not sure if they still use Scouts or not).

Track Season

But since I’ve been an adult, Easter is in the middle of track season.  And since Easter follows a different calendar than high school interscholastic sports, it was always a “challenge” for scheduling, particularly in the “road trip” days.  We would often take the team on an overnight trip in the early part of the season, to find different competition but also as a teambuilding plan.  And if that happened over Easter weekend, we worked hard to find Good Friday services, and made sure kids got home for their Easter plans. 

Easter became another “recovery Sunday” for me, after a big meet or a road trip, or worse, after our home invitational.  I’d just try to catch up on sleep, (and school work), before the roller coaster of practice and meets started up again on Monday.   Easter dinner wasn’t a big deal, even for Mom.  My parents were OK with our 9 am phone call, or sometimes drove up for Easter Sunday lunch.

Dawn Thirty

I’m not coaching anymore.  But I was at a meet yesterday, the Watkins Icebreaker Invitational that I started seventeen years ago.  It was one of the first meets of the year, and I decided it was easier to freeze at home, with a hot-tub only ten minutes away, than at some meet with a two-hour bus ride.  And that proved true yesterday.  The meet began in a steady rain and mid-forty degrees, my least favorite track weather (give me snow flurries anytime).  But, as Coach Severino says, there was a “window”.  By 11:30 the rain stopped, and by 3:00 I was officiating the pole vault in my shirtsleeves.  

So today is a “traditional” Easter for me – recovering from the track meet, seeing the dawn with the dogs (it’s looking better, maybe a partly-cloudy Easter this year after all), and prepping for our “new” Easter tradition.  I’m smoking a spiral ham this afternoon, a lot of food for just Jenn and me.  But it’s “tradition” (along with a Bloody Mary at breakfast about noon).  A calm, quiet Easter celebration, just us (and the dogs). 

Happy Easter, everyone!!!

The Sunday Story Series

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Facebook

I know, it’s Facebook.  I’m almost embarrassed to say that I use Facebook, but I do.  It’s a great way to celebrate my friends’ birthdays, and to keep up on kids and families.  And on the “business” side, it’s where I get track officiating updates, respond to pole vault questions, and one of the places I put my essays, political and otherwise.  You might well be reading this one from a link on Facebook.  And when I’m looking for a used mower deck for my little John Deere tractor – Facebook marketplace is the “where it’s at!!”.  I’ve even sold a couple of cars on Facebook.  

And then there’s all the “controversy”, here in our area usually involving the local municipalities.  The Pataskala page sometimes gets some arguments going, but nothing is as controversial as the “Etna Community” page.  They’re always fighting in Etna, over such terrific topics as garbage collection and whether the Township Hall video feed works.  Seriously, there are two fundamental issues in Etna:  the incredible industrial development that seems overwhelming to the area, and the “smell” of corruption in the township government; the old one, the new one, the next one, who knows?

When you say “Facebook” in a high school classroom, there’s a combination of rolling eyes and sad expressions.  It’s kind of like listening to my Mom and Dad’s record collection (now that’s at least fifty-five years ago).  Perry Como, Frank Sinatra, Peter Nero; I still like the music, but it certainly wasn’t what I heard on the “new” FM Radio stations, playing the latest folk-rock-protest songs.   The kids in today’s class just look kind of sorry for you – to be so old to actually “use” Facebook.

Looking for Work

But sometimes Facebook can tell you a little bit about the world, even if it’s overwhelmed with pro-Trump memes right now.

The post started like this:

Job search  – My husband is searching for a new job. He is on different job sites and has even called numbers he sees when he’s out and about. He is exploring all avenues, so I thought I’d also post in our local Facebook group on his behalf since sometimes there are jobs that aren’t listed online. If anyone has any leads on full time jobs or if anyone is hiring, please let him or I know. If you want more info on him or his experience, feel free to ask. Thank you

This kind of post sometimes turns out “badly”.  There are “trolls” on Facebook, looking for any excuse to turn a reasonable question into a “negative experience”.  But this particular post, for some reason, was taken seriously.  Here thirty-six hours later, there are eighty-eight responses, and fifty-four actual “leads” for specific jobs in the area.  

Polling shows that many Americans are still struggling with the economy.  This, in spite of the stock market performance (the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all set record highs in the past months); a national unemployment rate of 3.7%, and an inflation rate of 3.15%, half of what it was last year.  It’s more of a “feeling” than a number; prices seem high, and while wages have also gone up, it doesn’t “feel” like we’re keeping up.  

A Quarter-Million?

Or maybe think of it this way.  My house is now worth almost twice what it was worth just a decade ago.  But while it is really nice (we’ve done a lot of work on it), it doesn’t “feel” that different.  It certainly doesn’t “feel” like a house worth more than a quarter-million dollars.  But it is, according the appraiser, the online realty sites, and the county tax collector.

So how’s the economy on our little “micro” economic level?  A woman, just “fishing” for her husband, got fifty-four direct leads on a new job.  Everything from construction to skilled mechanic and driving, landscaping, to factory work. And, of course, “distribution center” (warehouse) work is always available in Etna.  There seems to be plenty of work “out there”, if you are willing to — work.

Good News?

All that sounds look good news for the incumbent, Biden Administration.  But there’s still a lot of  fear out there.  The Covid pandemic scarred (and scared) Americans.  From the high of January 2020 to the low of April of the same year, Americans realized how ephemeral economic security, and daily life, can be.  The memory of empty grocery shelves and missing paychecks is still fresh, and the wounds from that year are raw.  

Kids still are struggling from the loss of time in school, and there are empty chairs, family and friends that vanished, without even a funeral to mourn or a “celebration of life” to remember them.  2020, despite being the last Presidential election year and a perpetual checkmark in future history books like the 1918 Spanish Flu, is a year intellectually forgotten, but emotionally still very present.  

However you voted in 2020, Biden definitely got the burden of rebuilding the Nation in 2021 and beyond.  And, in comparison with the rest of the world, the United States has done better than anywhere else.  We got back to “normal”; to work, life, and moved on faster.  So fast, that it’s easy to forget who was President, and who wasn’t, when the original crisis began.

Less Red?

Reading Facebook proves the point:  Pataskala is still “Trump Country”.  Pataskala is in Licking County, that voted more than 63% for Trump in 2020.   But here’s an interesting “factoid”.  In 2023, Ohio voted on a state constitutional amendment to guarantee abortion rights.  It passed in Licking County 51% to 49%.  The County also voted for Issue 2, to legalize recreational marijuana, 53% to 47%.   Over 50% of the voters turned out in 2023 (73% came out for the 2020 Presidential vote). 

That certainly doesn’t mean Biden will win Licking County in 2024.  But maybe it will be a little closer. Those are the kind of inroads Biden (and Ohio’s Senator Sherrod Brown) will need.  And one of the biggest arguments both can make is – you can get a job, a good job, here in Licking County.  And, like it or not, that happened on Biden’s watch.

Just Meme It

 Clown Car

Secretly, many Democrats are taking heart.  The polling, as flawed as it’s proven to be, shows at worst a “tie” between Biden and Trump, and perhaps even Biden ahead, especially in the “swing” states.  Biden himself is proving to be energetic and powerful; cancelling out the entire “demented and exhausted by age” argument.  The Republicans in the House of Representatives are continuing their “clown car” show, with Marjorie Taylor Green threatening to take the entire House back to days of more votes for Speaker.  Some of her fellow Republicans are literally quitting in disgust. 

With only a single vote majority, the MAGA-Republicans are clearly on the edge of losing it.  Just one traffic jam on the DC Beltway, and the honorable Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic Minority Leader, could become the first Black Speaker of the House.  As Mark Twain said, “Nothing is safe while Congress is in session”.  Republicans finally stopped the bleeding by going on vacation for two weeks.

 Cash Poor

The Trump campaign is short on money.  Not only are they being out-raised by Biden/Harris ($25 million for a single “Presidential fundraiser” with Biden, Obama, and Clinton tonight), but MAGA campaign money is split.  Part of the fund is going to pay for the incredibly large legal fees that the twice-impeached, four time indicted, facing 91 felony counts, ex-President accrued.  And then there’s the civil penalties.  He caught a break in the New York business trial.  His actual fine is $475 million, but he “only” has to put up $175 million bond to appeal the case.  And then there’s the E J Carroll case, another $91 million bond, payable if Trump loses on appeal.

Trump completed a full takeover of the Republican National Committee.  His daughter-in-law is now the co-chairman.  Much of the fundraising money the RNC brings in is now split; first to the Trump campaign, second to the political action committee that pays for Trump’s legal bills, and then and only then, the remainder to the RNC.  Republicans “down-ballot” from Trump will find the going tough.  The money they might have had for their campaigns instead is going into Trump’s lawyers’ pockets. (Well, maybe:  Trump is notorious for “sticking” his lawyers and not paying, ask former “America’s Mayor”, the now disbarred Rudy Giuliani).

Cheap Works

But there are still “cheap” ways to campaign.  If you’re on Facebook with any regularity, you’ll know.  There is meme after meme: Trump will lower food prices, Trump will “fix” the border, Biden is “under fraud”, and, of course, “Buy a ‘Trump’ Bible”!!  It’s insidious – even if you don’t stay for long, the Trump messaging flashes through your brain.  And it costs almost nothing;  MAGA supporters just share and share and share.  

I suspect that’s happening on all versions of social media.  

And the Trump campaign is making “lemons into lemonade” in court.  Every court date that Trump himself attends, includes a statement going into court, a statement coming out of court, and a statement at lunch break too.  The ex-President gets maybe thirty minutes of free, completely controlled national coverage a day. He’d have to pay millions of dollars that he doesn’t have to replicate that exposure. 

Free Air – Simple Math 

It’s what the Trump campaign’s good at:  getting their guy free stuff.  It’s how he became  President in the first place, with no small contribution from MSNBC’s Morning Joe.  Trump got hours of free time, phoning in and talking to Joe and Mika.  And while the show offered Clinton the same opportunity, when that didn’t happen, they continued the lopsided Trump exposure.  

As Trump himself said, years before he ran for President, the only bad publicity is no publicity.  Arguing with Joe Scarborough on the phone in 2015, or calling NBC correspondent Garrett Haake stupid outside of a New York courtroom this week; gets Trump what he needs – visibility.

Trump can’t afford to buy the media;  so he uses it.  Free time, on Facebook or on CNN moves him along the campaign “trail”, and keeps his nasty, polarizing message in front of the American people.  If MSNBC’s giving him so much time, imagine what Fox or OANN is doing.

The only question I have is a simple “math” issue.  If the Nation is evenly split, say 45% to 45% between Biden and Trump, then it’s clear the election will be determined by who wins the majority of the remaining ten percent.  Those “swing” voters need persuasion, but most of what Trump is doing simply energizes his base.  He’s not reaching to the middle, he’s putting gas on the fire of the MAGA millions.  I’m sure that’s satisfying to the Trump camp; preaching to the converted.  But I don’t see a “calculus” that wins the Presidency.

It Happens

The Facts

Early this morning, a huge cargo ship, stacked high with “inter-modal containers”, ran into the main bridge across the Baltimore, Maryland, harbor.  In the darkness, several sections of the 1.2 mile Key Bridge collapsed.  There was minimal traffic at that early hour, but there were construction workers doing routine maintenance.   It’s a long way down to the forty-seven degree water.  At best guess at this moment (Tuesday morning) at least seven are missing.

The Key Bridge is the main interstate bypass around downtown Baltimore, designated I-695.   It’s “lucky” that the collision didn’t occur at rush hour, when the bridge would normally be bumper to bumper traffic.  

What happened?  How did a ship over a football field long, weighing 165,000 tons, run straight into a bridge pier?  Did the Singapore based crew, bound for Sri Lanka, somehow miss the well-travelled and marked channel?  Was there a failure of the ship systems, or negligence on the part of the crew, or some more nefarious “attack”?  We don’t know.

Red or Blue

But this is what government is for.  While we all get caught up in the politics of American life, Left and Right, Blue and Red; this emergency is why we elect officials either party.  The tasks are:  rescue of possible survivors, recovery of the dead, investigation of what happened, re-opening the harbor, re-routing the vehicle traffic, and rebuilding the Key Bridge.  It will take cooperation from every level of our Federal system:  the local emergency services, the state police and highway departments, the US Coast Guard, and the Department of Transportation’s Maritime and the Federal Highway Administrations. And don’t forget the Army Corps of Engineers.

And then there’s the money:  to pay for the rescue, the recovery, the investigation, the clean-up and, most of all, the rebuilding.  The Key Bridge cost $110 million when it was built in the early 1970’s.  That’s over $800 million in today’s money.  Every level; Baltimore, Annapolis (the state Capitol) and Washington, DC; will need to chip in.

All of this is not a “Red or Blue” issue.  In fact, the Mayor of Baltimore, the Governor of Maryland, the Secretary of Transportation and the President are all Democrats, but that isn’t the point.  All of these leaders are now put to the test.  It’s the same test faced when the I-95 bridge collapsed in Philadelphia last year (a relatively simple overpass), and the I-35 Bridge collapse in Minneapolis back in 2007.  That bridge was a quarter-mile long, with ten lanes, and cost $234 million to replace.  It was constructed in fifteen months.

Competence, not Politics

What is likely NOT the cause of this disaster?  Comments on Facebook included:  “that’s what happens when you hire using DEI” (diversity-equity-inclusion).  I’m sure the Singapore-based crew were certainly inclusive of West Asians, but not a product of US hiring practices.  And it’s not likely that this was a “terrorist attack” (though that would make a great movie, starring Matt Damon and Ben Affleck??).  I’m sure that angle will be checked out.   And it’s definitely not “the fault” of Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, even though he’s a Democrat.  I’m pretty sure he wasn’t driving or guiding the ship out of the harbor.

This just isn’t about modern American politics.  It’s about what we always expect our government to do, whether it’s Democrats in Maryland, or Republicans here in Ohio with the East Palestine train derailment.  We expect the government to “take care” of the problems, and provide solutions as quickly as possible.  Mayor Brandon Scott, Governor Wes Moore, Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and of course President Biden; it’s “all on” you.

A Nation More Divided

February, 2017

It was seven years ago, February of 2017. Donald Trump had only been President for a month. And  I was just beginning my “journey” into writing political (and other) essays; trying to explain what I saw as the betrayal of the “American Promise”.  That was one thousand, six hundred and seventy essays ago, about one every other day. 

 I still don’t think I’ve adequately described the schism that has only grown worse from Trump into the Biden Administration.  That’s despite the fact our current President, a politician of the “middle”: is still able to work “across the aisle”.  The problem now, the aisle is more like Trump’s “Wall”, and crossing is no longer an act of grace.  It’s more like an act of betrayal.  

In one of those early essays, I tried to describe the support for Trump in terms of an old television show,  Trump World and the Beaver.  I explained America’s schism as the future coming too fast, and the desire of some to “go back”.  For those of us who thought the “future” looked good; the pain of Hillary’s loss, and the outrage at Trump’s victory, was still fresh.  We were just beginning to find how to “resist” what Trump could do.  I completed that essay with the following paragraph:

As one of her final acts of the Presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton and her staff wore purple to symbolize a uniting of America.  As the “resistance” movement moves forward, we should not be secure in a 2.8 million vote majority.   We need to find ways to assuage the concerns of those who feel left behind by the rapid pace of change.

Colors

Well, that didn’t happen.  There’s been little “assuaging” in the past seven years, just a deepening of the divide.  It’s easy now to fall into the argument that, “I’m right, you’re wrong, and that’s it”.  But that doesn’t work.  I’ve never convinced someone to change simply by saying “you’re wrong”.  It just sets their position in stone, cemented in by the “facts” they believe, and inability of either side to see the other “view”.  It’s like arguing about color; if you see purple, and I see blue, no amount of persuasion will change your mind, or mine.  

And we are now in a black and white world, with little room for shades of gray.

Our National schism is like the Protestants and the Catholics in Northern Ireland. As my mother would say of the Irish flag, “Orange for the Protestants, Green for the Catholics, and White for the peace that shall never come between”.   And if that analogy seem extreme, so is our current divide. 

Origin Story

I’ve said this a lot:  we have a Nation with two different sets of facts, even two different histories.  Here’s some examples.

There is a national “origin-story” that the United States was founded by Christian men using Christian doctrine.  You hear it often.  But the Founding Fathers were much more nuanced than that.  Jefferson, the white man (and enslaver) who wrote “…All Men are created equal…endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights…”  didn’t see the “Creator” in any sort of Christian sense.  He was Deist, who saw the Creator as setting the world in motion, then stepping back and letting it move on.

And the authors of the Constitution were well aware that the colonies were founded in part as a refuge for religious freedom.  The Pilgrims, the Puritans, the Quakers in Pennsylvania, the Catholics in Maryland; all came to escape religious persecution.  It was so important that the First clause of the First Amendment to the Constitution stated:  “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment religion or the prohibiting the free exercise thereof…”  There was no “exception” for the Christian church.

Foundation

Even Francis Bellamy, the author of the Pledge of Allegiance and a minster’s son, did NOT include a Creator in his pledge in 1892.  It wasn’t until 1954 that “Under God” was inserted – to contrast the United States to the “godless” Communists. But stating those “facts” of our Founding, is now controversial.  Like the origin story of some superhero, the “facts” get altered to fit a current narrative of Christian Nationalism.

The revelations of the “1619 Project” weren’t new.  But the New York Times essays put the reality of a Nation, founded in part, on enslaved labor, out front.  Those facts flew in the face of the “origin story” the Americans learned from textbooks that, up until the 1970’s, mentioned only Harriet Tubman, Booker T Washington and George Washington Carver as “significant” people of color.   But instead of recognizing our “real” history, many states, including Ohio, moved to “strike” the 1619 project.  It raised far too many questions, altered too many perspectives.  It was too “dangerous” to talk about in public schools.

Only the Choir

But the most recent example, and the most polarizing event, was the American response to the Covid 19 pandemic.  What should have been a simple, unanimous scientific response, devolved into a wildly divisive political issue.  Somehow, masks and vaccinations became “Democrat”, and anti-vaxx, anti-mask became “MAGA-Republican”.  How did we allow a national emergency, something that should have bound us together in common interest, to become the most divisive issue of our time?  And how many needlessly died because of our divided response?

When I started writing these essays, I believed that somehow I could, in a small way, reach across the barrier.  Now, I know that’s not possible.  All I can do is “preach” to the choir.  There’s not many others in the “congregation”, left open to the message, or conversion.  We are a Nation going forward, divided, with a large minority who will, (to paraphrase Hamilton, The Musical), never be satisfied.  

Old Republicans

Eisenhower

I miss the old days.  At least, I think I do.  I’m trying to remember the last “acceptable” Republican President, that is, acceptable to me.  Let’s see:  I was born in 1956, and don’t remember much of Dwight Eisenhower (other than my own “Presidential Campaign” of 1960, “Vote, Vote, Vote for Martin Dahlman, throw old Ikey down the sink…”).  

Mom didn’t like Eisenhower, she had a run-in with him during World War II. The story went that he “called her out” for an improper uniform, though her unit, the SOE, was completely irregular anyway.  According to Mom, she made it clear he wasn’t the General of “her” Army.   She had the equivalent “rank” of Wing Commander, a Lieutenant Colonel, in US Army terms, and wore a uniform when she wasn’t in Nazi occupied Europe.  I was never really sure if that was a real conversation with the Commanding General, or what Mom thought she should have said. 

Besides, Mom didn’t like the fact that Eisenhower, like many Americans in England at the time, was having an open affair with a British girl.  It wasn’t that Kay Summersby was “living in sin” or anything.  It’s just that Eisenhower was married to Mamie back home, and Americans already had a terrible reputation for womanizing while English men were away fighting the war.  In fact, Mom had my father, a US Army Warrant Officer, “vetted”, before she met him for the first time.  She wasn’t looking for an “affair” like Ike was having.  They married in 1944.

Nixon

And I didn’t like Nixon.  Mom had something to do with that as well.  One of her college roommates was Kathleen Kennedy, the ill-fated sister of John F. Kennedy. So Mom was a Kennedy fan, even though as a British citizen, she couldn’t vote in Cincinnati.  That Kennedy button never came off my blue sweater in the fall of 1960. And my disdain for Nixon grew stronger in 1962 when he lost the California Governor’s race (“You won’t have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore”).   By 1968 I was twelve, and Nixon ran as the “man who could win” the Vietnam War.  I was dedicated to Senator Robert Kennedy, and after his assassinaation, a reluctant supporter of Vice President Hubert Humphrey.

I did kind of admire Gerald Ford.  Nixon supposedly picked him for Vice President, because Congress would “never dare” put him in as President of the United States. (The joke was Ford played “too much football without a helmet on” at Michigan).  But Congress got Nixon out of office, and Ford did well for a few weeks. That is – until he pardoned Nixon.  I wasn’t so happy with him after that.

Reagan

The world was supposed to end when Ronald Reagan took office.  A lot of his policies were awful; cutting support to public schools, attacking organized labor,  slashing aid for mental illness and putting mental patients on the street.  But Reagan was a “muscular force” in foreign policy. He “won” the war in Granada.  And while a lot of us thought his nuclear brinksmanship might bring us all to devastation, the economic impact of his buildup did bring the Soviet Union down and ended the Cold War.

And as far as the Bushes’ were concerned – I liked George HW a whole lot more than George W. But both were kind of “traditional Republicans”, not as wedded to “Conservatism” as they were pragmatic about running the Nation for the good of “business” (what’s good for General Motors is good for America).  I didn’t agree with that ideology, but I could live with it.  At least, they weren’t what I would call anti-American.

The Divide  

But since the Bush v. Gore debacle of 2000, the first “election steal”, (in my view), America has been on a long road into polarization.  When the Supreme Court voted on party lines, the veneer of “Judicial impartiality” was pierced.  It kind of struck me like the Nixon Pardon.  The Court was making a decision “for the good of the Nation”, pushing us through the crisis, when it seemed more like they were really deciding what was good for the Republican Party.  

On 9-11 I could stand behind Bush.  I too was stirred when he called out the terrorists – “…the whole world will hear us”.  But the ugly “watched the TV show Twenty-Four” too many times actions of his Administration (blame Dick Cheney, but Bush was the President) was far too much. 

Obviously, the Obama Administration was great – even though he was stymied by Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senate, and his own careful awareness of his place in history.  But the first Black President created a backlash that directly led us to Donald Trump.  It wasn’t Obama’s fault, but absolutely a clear “cause and effect”, from the Tea Party to MAGA world.   And that final level of extremism meant that the Republicans of “old”, were left with no Party.  Even the heirs of Bush became irrelevant, relics of a bygone era.  The “old Republicans” are a lot like the segregationist Democrats of the 1950’s; no longer representative of anything but ancient history.

The Crucible

In 1859, as he awaited his execution for the raid on Harper’s Ferry, John Brown foresaw the Civil War in his final speech.

Now if it is deemed necessary that I should forfeit my life for the furtherance of the ends of justice, and mingle my blood further with the blood of my children and with the blood of millions in this slave country whose rights are disregarded by wicked, cruel, and unjust enactments. — I submit; so let it be done! . .

I don’t know that we are facing a second Civil War (I hope not), but I do think we are entering a crucible that will determine the future of our Nation.  This year, 2024, will determine America for the rest of my lifetime.  It’s not like 1980, as awful as Reagan’s victory was at the time.  Those “old Republicans” were still dedicated to the American experiment.  Now, we face, perhaps for the first time, an “alternative theory” of America. It’s outside the range of the democratic (small ‘d’) thought that ran strong through the first two-hundred and forty-eight years of our history.  

It’s not the “old days” anymore.

Bloodbath

I Heard It

Stop telling me, “don’t believe your lying ears”.  I listened to some of Trump’s nonsense in Dayton this weekend.  I saw him stand, proudly, saluting during the National Anthem, honoring his so-called “hostages” in the District of Columbia jail.  They are incarcerated for charges from January 6th.  And I heard him say, “…if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath.”  

The next day, Republican politicians from Mike Johnson (Dayton’s Congressman) to Bill Cassidy (Louisiana Senator) tried to “spin” that phrase.  “Oh, he was talking about Chinese electric car manufacturers if we don’t stop them, it will be a ‘bloodbath’ in the auto industry”.  Even former Vice President Pence, the target of the mob on January 6th, still gave Trump a “pass” on his threat (or promise).

Here’s the whole paragraph, stuck within Trump’s longer ‘riff’ about the car industry.

“We’re going to put a 100% tariff on every single (Chinese) car that comes across the line, and you’re not going to be able to sell those guys if I get elected. Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole – that’s gonna be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That’ll be the least of it.” (CNN).

I Believe It

Maya Angelou famously said:  “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”.  The man in the red hat, who saluted the American flag while the National Anthem sung by insurrectionists was played, said it would be a bloodbath for the country if he loses.  On January 6th 2021, as President of the United States he went to the Mall and told his followers to march on the Capitol.  I’m weary of the “spin”.  I’ve heard way more than enough.  

The 1960’s singing group the Monkees sang:  “I’m a believer…not a shred of doubt in my mind”.  Trump has shown us who he is, time and time again.  There is no doubt that if Trump loses in November, he will call for a “Storm of retribution” to take over the government.   The question I have, is who will answer his call this time?

Foot Soldiers

There’s a couple of ways to look at the question – where are Trump’s foot-soldiers?  The evidence we have is what’s happened at Trump’s hearings in New York, Washington, and Florida.  The former President, still protected by the US Secret Service, makes grand entrances to each of those Court appearances.  And at first, the Courts and cities made grand preparations to handle “the mob”.  But, even from the first appearances, it was clear that the “Trump’s warriors” weren’t coming.  

How much of a conspiracy theory does it take?  Is Trump calling for his “people”, and they aren’t coming because they’re done with him?  It would make sense, the rest of us are done with him, for sure.  Or is there some more insidious plan?  Are the Trump “soldiers” lulling us into complacency, setting a trap?  Sure they aren’t there at the trials, but they’ll re-emerge at state Capitols and in Washington when the time comes, and  Trump fails at the polls once again.

Concerns

Our National intelligence agencies fell far short in 2021. While Washington went on “full alert” for Black Lives Matter protests, no one seemed worried about  the Red-Hatted Trumpers.  Maybe that was because they were White, or maybe no one believed their own “lying eyes and ears”.  So it is a concern that our political class still normalizes the kind of language that Trump uses and is willing to “cover” for his real meaning.  The idea that what Trump says is “not important” allows him to communicate to his followers in plain sight.  

And it’s a concern that the current Department of Justice delayed bringing charges against Trump or the other political leadership of his “Stop the Steal” movement until two years after the insurrection.  That reluctance to engage leaves America denied legal resolution, and vulnerable to the continuing litany of “stolen Presidency” lies.   When Trump promises a bloodbath, he makes a clarion call to his supporters.  They know what he wants them to do.

Do WE know what to do?  It starts with believing our own eyes and ears.  We don’t know what’s going to happen in the next nine months.  All we can do is make sure Trump fails in the election, and then fortify our democracy for the worst.  If it’s all a bluff, then all we are out is time and effort.

And if the “Storm of retribution” is real – then maybe we can save our country.

Tic-Tac-Toe

Thanks Speaker Emeritus Pelosi for the essay title – even though we don’t agree on the outcome!!

Rant

Let me get this off of my chest.  I am tired, so very tired, of hearing the Chinese Government referred to as “THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY”.  Listen, I’m not stupid.  I know the Conservative Party runs the United Kingdom, Likud controls Israel, the Vietnamese Communist Party runs Vietnam and, yes, the Communist Party runs China. Oh, by the way, do we say the American Democratic Party instead of the United States?  What, we don’t?  

I know the Communist Party runs China.  I can even give a summary of how Mao Zedong and the Communists defeated Chang Kai-shek and the Nationalists (now in power in Taiwan).  When politicians (of both political parties) and the media use “THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY” label instead of just China, or the Chinese government, it’s a “Red Scare” tactic still stale from the 1950’s.  McCarthyism made us so afraid of “Red”, that the Cincinnati Reds changed their name to “Red-legs”, and maps that used to signify the British Empire in red switched that color to the Soviet Union and China.  It’s a fear tactic from our sorry past, along with “America First” with all of its isolationist flaws.  

So Tik-Tok came from China.  So did my MacBook Pro and my I-Phone.  The fact the Communist Party controls China doesn’t need to be shoved up my – nose – every time we talk about it.  There; rant’s over. 

Tik Tok

Now let’s get to the “bane of adult existence”, Tik Tok.  Full disclosure:  I don’t do Tik Tok.  I do have the “app” on my phone, and it does open, but I don’t use it.  And, I have fallen “down the well” of Tik Tok videos on Facebook a few times, losing several minutes of my life.  I understand the “addictive” features, and I get how young people get “sucked in”.  I also understand that it’s a powerful medium for communication, even if you don’t like what’s being communicated.  So are Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter (Elon’s messed up ‘X’) and to a much lesser extent, all of the messaging and blogging apps.  

Bad Rap

Tik Tok’s gotten a “bad rap” with us adults.  All we think of is kids eating Tide pods, or trashing school restrooms, or mimicking some other video they see.  And that all really happened.  But it seems to me that Tik Tok is just very successful at what many of the other apps are trying to do.  And more importantly, we are conceding that parents and other adults can’t control their own kids.  

It’s just the old adage writ large:  “If Jimmy next door jumps off of the Empire State Building, you’ll jump off the Empire State Building”.  “If you see kids eating Tide pods on Tik Tok, will you eat Tide pods on Tik Tok?” We can’t change Jimmy, all we can do is make our kids stronger.   Banning Jimmy just makes it easier for Bobby down the street.

It’s that “bad rap” that’s put the target on Tik Tok.  But Tik Tok is also a valuable communication tool, one that many “older/young adults” use to get information. President Biden has a Tik Tok feed, as does that other guy.  In spite of that, the US Congress is cavalierly jumping on their right to give and get information.  That’s a huge First Amendment issue. Even more importantly, take out Tik Tok, and some other form will just take its place.  

When I hear the “old, white, men” of Congress complaining about Tik Tok, I’m reminding of all those “old, white, men” who complained about Elvis Presley’s hips, or the Beatles’ haircuts, or “Puff the Magic Dragon” (is it about marijuana?) It’s this generation’s Zombie Nazis video games: the older generations just don’t get it.

Information Mining

But what about the – BREATHLESS – CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY!!!!! We are giving our information, our metadata, our location data, our innermost thoughts and dreams to the CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY!!!  And our KIDS are giving it to them too!  China (tired of capital letters) will use that against our population, or worse, they’ll manipulate how Americans think – through Tik Tok!! We all saw the movie, The Manchurian Candidate (at least the old one – Sinatra, not Denzel).  Wasn’t that the Chinese (Communist Party)??

So here’s the bad news.  The Chinese Government can buy that same information from dozens of sources, legally.  Sure I don’t want Tik Tok to give them data.  I don’t want Zuckerberg’s Facebook to do it either.  And I sure don’t want Elon Musk to have my ‘X’ data.  But by signing onto the app, I’m giving them all exactly that.  The “algorithm” is simple.  I don’t pay for Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, Twitter, or the Tik Tok I don’t use.  Chinese Communism to the contrary, it’s a capitalistic marketplace, and nothing is free.  Why would Facebook let me post, and not charge me?  They’re collecting my data, and selling it off. That’s where the “money” is.

Parenting

Congress:  Don’t ban Tik Tok.  It’s a drop in the bucket (or, maybe a little bigger, more like an ongoing drip).  If you want to make a difference in information in the digital age; regulate data sweeping and mining, and those cookies in programs, so when I check out track starting pistols on Google, I don’t get ads for every form of semi-automatic military-style rifles.  Ask Ro Khanna, the Congressman from Silicon Valley. He’s ready to do that “hard work” of really controlling personal information.

Parents:  if you don’t want your kid on Tik Tok:  take control of your kid, their phone, and their life.  It’s the hard thing to do, like keeping your kid off drugs and alcohol.  And just like those, your kid will likely make mistakes.  Then love them, and teach them, and learn to trust them when you can.  It’s called parenting, and letting them grow up.  

We don’t need Congress to “parent” for us – do we??

 YOUR SAFE SPOT!!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!!!! – This is another “Sunday Story”; no politics here, just a story about what was “on TV” Thursday night.

Ritual

On Thursday nights Jenn and I have an “old” ritual.  Not that Jenn’s old (that only applies to me), but we do have a serious addiction:  Law and Order SVU (look, Jenn I didn’t say SUV!!).  After twenty-five years, the SVU cast has become part of our family.  And since it’s on almost every afternoon as well, we can catch up on all twenty-five years’ worth if we miss one.   So we settled in after dinner, to watch the entire current package, Law and Order, Law and Order SVU, and Law and Order – Organized Crime.  

But tonight our shows are pre-empted – a new show is on. It’s called “GET TO YOUR SAFE SPOT!!”  It’s March in Ohio in this era of climate change, and tornado season is here, a month or more early.  Our local station covers most of Central Ohio, and storms are moving in.  So it’s all WEATHER ALERT, all the time – at least for tonight.

Best Show On TV

We’ve got a couple of hours until our home in Pataskala gets into serious stuff, though the lightning is already flashing.  But, since there are tornadoes on the ground in the viewing area, the local station goes full time.  We are learning about tornado indices (who knew – a 5 or above means there’s a good chance a tornado is on the ground), severe hail (1 ½” sized – ping pong ball), and wind shears.

Just twenty miles north, Delaware is under the gun, and areas to the northwest have already been hammered.  We’ve can see the storm headed for us – a tornado down right now, near Greenville, Ohio.  That’s about 100 miles west of us and that storm cell is headed our way.    

Dave Says

It’s fascinating to watch.  The bright oranges and reds, the greens and purples, all light up the TV screen.  I’m not a hallucinogens user, but if I was this would be the show to see:  lines, flashing colors, lightning, wind shear grids, consuming all attention.  There’s even a new feature:  a new blue spot on the radar.  That signifies debris is in the air (remember that great line from the movie Twister, “debris, debris, cow!!!”).  It’s actually pretty cool, as long as you don’t think about what’s happening on the ground underneath all those “pretty colors”.

Dave’s the weatherman, and he talks directly to the audience.  It’s not just about the map.  Dave will look straight into the camera, straight at you, and say:  “If you live in Ostrander, you need to be in your ‘safe spot’ right now!!!”  And he must know more about me, and a lot of other watchers, then he should.  “Don’t go outside and look for it, it’s dark and you won’t see it until it’s too late.  Besides, 1 ½” sized hail can hurt, and break the windows in your house.  Safe Spot, now!!!”

We’ve Been There

The other part of watching the “Tornado Show” is reminiscing.  Over the past several years, Jenn has trapped dogs in lots of little towns and crossroads throughout the state.  I often go along as the driver/trap-hauler.  We know folks who helped us out in a lot of those places.

So when a tornado was on the ground, “West of Indian Lake and south of Waynesfield” we know where that is:  it’s New Hampshire, Ohio, a tiny crossroads where Jenn sat in near sub-zero weather waiting for two Pyrenees to go into a panel trap, just a few months ago (Rube Goldberg ).  That’s not much there, and after a tornado, I’m afraid there’s even less.  The nice man who let us use his land and shed to put up the trap – I hope he’s OK, and without much damage. (Actually, an F3 tornado did a lot of damage to the area, and killed three people).

The Greenville tornado is not far from another trapper/friend.  We’ve been to her house, exchanging equipment, often enough that I don’t even have to listen to “Siri” on the map application anymore to get there.

We may not be in the “tornado zone” yet.  But the lights are flashing, the hail’s pounding the roof and piling up on the deck, and the dogs are starting to look nervous.   It used to be that when night fell, the storms lost their power.  But tonight, and in the big dawn-thirty morning a couple of weeks ago, lack of the warming sun doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of difference. Climate change?  It definitely could be.  It’s March 14th, just before St. Patrick’s Day, and it’s sixty-seven degrees at 9:15pm.  It’s hot, the dogs are annoyed (especially Buddy, our old man), and there’s still energy in the atmosphere.

Our Spot

I’ve already written about our “safe spot”, the two bathrooms in the house (Singing in the Tornado).  Buddy may beat us all to the bathtub, but Atticus is going to be a problem.  He’s still recovering from his knee surgery, and the only way to keep him off his leg is drugs.  And he is drugged for the night – it will take some serious “treats” to get him up and moving again.  Let’s hope we can avoid — oops, there go the tornado sirens.  Lou’s, the crooner, is listening. I’m betting sings again!!

It takes until the second round of alerts – but now Lou and CeCe, our little one, are harmonizing together – “OOOWWW-UUUUUUH” – it’s the call of the wild.

The storm wore out before it got here – we got lots of rain, some wind, but nothing tornadic.  But it looks like we might be in for a bad tornado season:  Look out, 1974!!!

The Sunday Story Series

Let Down

Lying Eyes

To be honest, I feel like the American Justice system has let us down.  From the Supreme Court to the line judges and prosecutors, our Judicial system was “played”.  If justice delayed is justice denied, then we, the American people, have been left high and dry.  And if our justice system was supposed to be the last bulwark, the final defense of democracy, I have a sad conclusion.  It doesn’t work.

I have eyes and ears.  I sat horrified on January 6th, 2021, watching as the Capitol was stormed by a mob. It was sent by a President trying to remain in office.  Then, I listened to the President of the United States, on the phone with the Secretary of State of Georgia. He demanded that Georgia “find votes” so that he could remain in office, and threatened retribution if they didn’t.  And I viewed the photographs of classified documents. They were stacked on the performance stage of a supper club and piled in the shower of the “golden bathroom”.  

But our Court systems, from a Georgia county judge to the Supreme Court of the United States, failed. They are telling me not to believe my “lying eyes” or my “failing ears”. 

Mueller 

I’ve heard it all before.  I watched as a good man, a powerful public official, was stymied by those who were willing to “fix the game”.  Robert Mueller may not have been at his best at the end. He was dragged into a House hearing really physically incapable of  testifying.  But what Mueller didn’t tell us was that his investigation, the first foray into the ugly world of Trump, was hamstrung.  He reported to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who placed guardrails that Mueller felt duty-bound to follow.  So he never, to use a Watergate phrase, “followed the money” – that wasn’t inside the “lines”.  And he allowed the Trump team to “stonewall” his investigation He sadly lamened the fact they lied to his investigators. But he did not file charges against them.

And Rosenstein’s boss, “the institutionalist” Attorney General William Barr, set the political stage for the judicial failure of the Mueller investigation.  He doctored the outcome, leaving his “friend” Mueller high and dry.

By the way, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Rosenstein’s protégé, Robert Hur, found a way to ambush President Biden without bringing charges. He learned from a master (see an essay earlier this week, Comey Revisited).

Perfect Calls

And Trump’s phone call to Raffensperger in Atlanta now falls into the same category as Trump’s call to Zelenskyy in Kyiv; a “perfect call”.  The Senate failed in their duty to protect the Nation. They let Trump “off” for the Zelenskyy call, extorting a foreign President to find “dirt” on his political opponent, Joe Biden, in exchange for US military aid. This week, Fulton County Judge Scott McAfee threw the Raffensperger call out of the Fani Willis trial. (Though it might be refiled).  The Judge is telling us all, our “lying ears” didn’t hear the most powerful man in the world try to intimidate a state official into “giving” him votes – even though we did.

Shooting Straighter

Hard to imagine, but I do need to give the Trump legal team credit.  For years, the “Trump lawyers” have been a laughing-stock of the legal community. They’re briefs and pleadings looked worse than high school performances, much less law school graduates.  But the “gang that couldn’t shoot straight” are batting nearly a-thousand right now. The Trump strategy of delay-delay-delay worked at every level. 

The Supreme Court did their “duty”. They decided to hear the specious “I’m immune from any prosecution” case and delayed the January 6th trial until after the election. And the Department of Justice, (the President Biden appointed Garland Department of Justice), managed to stall the New York-Stormy Daniels case. SDNY held thirty-one thousand pages of evidence until the last minute, then dumped them on both the prosecution and the defense.  

That fits with the entire Garland Department handling of the Trump cases.  While it’s easier to blame judges, in the end, it was main-Justice that held the cases away from Trump. It took almost two years before a Special Prosecutor was even appointed to investigate the twice-impeached former President.  

And of course, the Trump sycophant Federal Judge in Florida is running the classified documents  case with “all deliberate speed”. The emphasis is on deliberate.  It still bears examination:  how did “random chance” get that case in front of Judge Cannon,  the one judge in the district, bound and determined to protect the former President above all else.  Don’t believe me:  ask the 11th Appeals Court, who overruled her twice in the beginnings of this legal debacle.

The Last Defense

For those few who had hope that our legal system would stand when the House, the Senate, and the Executive branch did not, if have bad news.  It didn’t happen.  If Donald Trump by hook or by crook, wins the Presidency again, the Federal cases will “go away”, and the state cases will be delayed until, if or when, he leaves the Presidency.  

What’s left is us, both in the you and me meaning, and the United States meaning.  We are the last bulwark of justice and democracy.  We have the “final answer” to this long running show, the ultimate authority in what will sadly be called by future history teachers as the “Trump Era”.  America gets to vote in November, and decide the most important issue:  is our future with Trump, or with democracy.  

We can’t depend on anything else.   

Pipe Dream

Apocalypse Now

If you’re a Democrat, the election of 2024 seems apocalyptic.  Progressive media sends the message over and over again:  if the MAGA-Republicans win the Presidency, it might be the last free election in the American “experiment”.  While this seems breathlessly catastrophic, there are world data-points to fact-check the claim.  Look at Europe, particularly Russia, Hungary, Poland, and Turkey:  authoritarian leaders, freely elected, have altered democracy into something more reminiscent of Mussolini’s Italy ( Hah – avoided “Godwin’s Law”).  Fascism is on the rise.

But assuming (there’s that whole ass of you and me thing) that the Nation comes to its senses, dodges this bullet and once again elects Joe Biden, it doesn’t mean everything is “rosy”.  A second Biden term will do little to alter the six-three conservative majority on the Supreme Court (though, obviously, the Deity could take a hand in that).  Short of some kind of court-packing scheme, the Supreme Court can’t be counted on to protect the rights of individuals; now, or in the foreseeable future.

House Control

As the current deadlock in the Congress demonstrates, any President can be stymied by a recalcitrant House or Senate.  The House is “locked-in” by nationwide Gerrymandering to a narrow partisan difference, and political control resides in those few districts that really can “swing” from one party to the other.  

But signs look good for Democrats in the House.  New York state redrew their Congressional districts once again, this time with State Court approval, and four Districts that went Republican in 2022 may well be back in the Democratic column.  In addition, lawsuits in Alabama and Louisiana (and potentially Georgia and North Carolina) will put several other districts in play.  And, of course, 2024 is a Presidential election year, likely to have a record voter turnout.  That almost always benefits the Democratic vote.  

With the House Republican by a slim two-vote margin now, it’s likely that Mike Johnson will conclude his term quickly, and Hakeem Jeffries will gain the gavel and become the first Black Speaker of the House in 2025.

Paddling Upstream

Which brings us to the US Senate. Currently, the Democrats have forty-eight seats and Republicans hold forty-nine.  There are three “independents” in the Senate (King of Maine, Sanders of Vermont, and Sinema of Arizona) and all three organize with the Democrats, giving “Blue” a two vote margin of control.  But,  every two years, a third of the Senators are up for election. And this year, twenty-four of those seats are held by Democrats.  

Democrats are on the defense in the Senate.   The “good news”, only seven of those twenty-four seats are really competitive.  The bad news – Democrats will start 2025 down one.  Joe Manchin of West Virginia is retiring, and there isn’t another Democrat in the state that can win his seat.  So, Republicans will start with a “tie”, requiring the Vice President to break it. Unfortunately the news doesn’t get much better, and Democrats will have to run the table to maintain control.  Here are the “nuts and bolts” for Senate control in 2025.  

Dems Up

In Arizona, independent (former Democrat) Sinema isn’t running for re-election.  Congressman Reuben Gallego is the Democratic nominee, running against MAGA-Republican and failed 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.  Everything is within the margins in Arizona, but Gallego has the advantage both in current polling and in raising money.  Lake’s extremism turned off the “McCain Republicans” in 2022, and hopefully Gallego will spark a huge Hispanic turnout in the state – good for him, and good for Joe Biden.

Maryland should be a Democratic “no brainer”.  But Ben Cardin is retiring from the seat, and there’s a scramble of Democrats trying to earn the nomination.  Meanwhile, moderate Republican and former Governor Larry Hogan chose not to accept the “No Labels” offer of a quixotic Presidential bid, and is running for Senate instead.  Even though Hogan is a “moderate”, if he wins, he’ll organize with the MAGA-Republicans in the Senate.  Any Democrat should still have the advantage, but Hogan is a force to be reckoned with in Maryland, and shouldn’t be ignored.

Dems Even

Then there are the two incumbent Senators running “against the grain” of their states, John Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.  In the past, both Senators were able to maintain their seats in spite of the statewide trend, but every time they’re on the ballot, a Democratic seat is in peril.  Count on many millions of dollars backing their campaigns, and in Ohio, it doesn’t look like a particularly strong opponent for Brown.  But for Democrats, Montana and Ohio must be a nail biter, even in a Presidential year.

In Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all Presidential swing states, the Senate candidates should have an easier time of re-election.  Presidential turnouts should assure re-election, with Rosen, Casey and Baldwin all returning to office.  While a Trump victory in any of those states could wash them out as well, it’s more likely those seats will hold.

Dem Dreams

Which leaves us with the Democratic “pipe dream” of changing Red Texas.  Ted Cruz is clearly the least liked Senator in the chamber, and hasn’t been particularly popular in Texas either. But he survived a strong challenge from Beto O’Rourke back in 2018, and now faces a formidable opponent in Congressman (and former NFL linebacker) Colin Allred.   They’ll be lots of money in that campaign as well, but betting on a Democrat to win Texas, is a lot like betting on one to win in Florida.  It’s a great idea, who’s time hasn’t quite come – yet – maybe.  

If everything went right for Democrats, except for Texas, they will have a majority based on the re-election of Vice President Harris.  If there’s a single slip, then a second Biden Administration will face a Republican Senate, no longer moderated (if that’s what it was) by Mitch McConnell.  A MAGA-Republican would be the Majority Leader, for at least the first two years.  And don’t count on Senate “tradition” to hold with that “new sheriff” in town.  Democrats might wish for the filibuster rule, but that might be a pipe dream too.

Comey Revisited

House Hearings

It’s been a while since I spent a day watching Congressional hearings.  I remember the “bad old days”. FBI Director James Comey excoriated by both sides over the Hillary Clinton decision. Michael Cohen giving us the “inside scoop with receipts” on the workings of the Trump Administration.  But all of that seems somehow like ancient history now; almost “quaint” stories of a time when things seemed simpler, and definitely more hopeful.

Comey ended the investigation of then-candidate Clinton for using a private email server. He determined that her actions did not rise to the level of a crime.  But, instead of just declining to charge, Comey gave a national press conference where he emphasized Clinton’s careless behavior.  He then re-opened the investigation of Clinton, just ten days before the election.  His actions, while likely unintentional, were the proximate cause of the election of Donald Trump to the Presidency in 2016.

Hur’s Conclusions

Yesterday the newly resigned Special Counsel for the Department of Justice, Robert Hur, testified to the House Judiciary Committee.  Like Comey, Prosecutor Hur also tried to have it both ways.  He declined to prosecute President Biden for violating national security laws and mishandling classified documents.  That should have been the “headline”.  But, as outlined in the report Hur issued, one of his reasons for declination that he didn’t “feel” that a jury would convict Biden, because the President came across as a “…likeable but forgetful old man”.  Hur argued a jury would decide that Biden couldn’t form the intent to commit the crime.  In essence, Biden was too old to think it through.

Biden sat for five hours (over two days) of voluntary deposition with Hur and his staff, in the midst of the crisis after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th.  It was from those hours that Hur drew his conclusions.  But a reading of the transcript (released yesterday) showed that while Biden did get some dates and details wrong, he also showed clear recall of a lot of other facts and events.   The “charge” against Hur is that he “cherry picked” incidents of forgetfulness, while himself forgetting other instances where Biden demonstrated a clear memory and understanding.

Hur declined charges.  But like Comey, he denied Biden his  “day in court” where he might be found guilty, or might be exonerated.  Instead, Hur found the sitting President, without trial, “guilty” of senility.  Much like Comey’s ill-fated press conference, the Hur Report essentially condemned Biden, without giving him an opportunity to give his side of the story.

Ignorant or Intent

There are two ways to look at what Hur did.  The first is to say that, like Comey, Hur was simply “calling it as he sees it”.  Hur argues that he was required to give his reasons for declining charges, and his evaluation of Biden’s mental state was one of the important ones.  In essence, Hur provided Biden with a defense that the President certainly would never choose on his own.  It might keep him from conviction, but its stigma might prevent his re-election as President.  

Or, Hur, a life-long Republican, clerk for Republican Chief Justice Rehnquist, and protégé of Trump Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein; might be acting as a partisan.  He definitely gave ammunition to the pro-Trump forces, perhaps in hopes of becoming the Attorney General in a second Trump Administration. 

Confirmation Bias

There is a big difference between the impact Comey had in 2016 and what effect the Hur report will have today.  In 2016 the Nation wasn’t sure about Donald Trump, but had very definite opinions about Hillary Clinton (even before “Hillary’s email”).  In 2024, the Biden versus Trump sides are virtually cemented in place.  There is little room for persuasion; the partisans of either side ignore information that doesn’t fit their pre-conceived model.  

In short, MAGA supporters, of course, agree that Biden is senile.  They’ve been saying it for years, and Hur’s determination simply confirms their decision.   On the other hand, Biden supporters have heard the same talk about Biden for years, and deny it each time.  This will be just one more moment when they can ignore information that fails to fit their preconceived notion.

Biden supporters just see if as another “shot” by a Republican operative, just like the Supreme Court decisions in favor of Trump look like another Republican scheme.   In the end, both sides look for confirmation of their pre-conceived ideas, and ignore the rest.

In other news, last night’s primary election results confirmed what we all knew:  it’s Biden versus Trump, part “deux”;  buckle-up. 

Cold Warrior

Bombs on the Way

I grew up in the “Cold War” Era.  In fact, the Cold War was a major emphasis of my college degree.  It  wasn’t just history, it was current events.  The dark humor of our foreign policy study group, steeped in the utter destructiveness of nuclear weapons, came through in a joke about a television announcement: “This just in, Moscow in flames, bombs on the way, film at eleven!!”  The “joke” was that if bombs were really on the way, there would be no station left to show the film at eleven, nor were we likely to be alive to see it.

I lived in the intersection of circles, a Venn diagram of the areas of destruction from twenty megaton nuclear weapons.  Living in Granville, Ohio at Denison University, we were on the edge of total destruction if Columbus (and particularly Rickenbacker Air Base) was hit, and well within the destruction if the missile development base in Newark, Ohio was destroyed.  Surviving a nuclear attack wasn’t an issue: we wouldn’t.

At that time, the “stability” of the world depended on a theory called Mutual Assured Destruction, “MAD”.  It was pretty simple.  No matter what kind of attack we made on the Soviet Union, or they made on the United States, there was no way that would completely disable the other side’s response.  Launch every missile, all the bombers, ballistic missile submarines:  in the end the “other” side had an invulnerable second strike capability.  That second strike would cause unacceptable losses.

Eyeball to Eyeball

It wasn’t that the United States and the Soviet Union didn’t come up against each-other’s military.  We stood “eyeball to eyeball” across the Berlin Wall, and the length of the East German border, and in dozens of other spots in the world.  But we avoided direct combat with each other because of the risk of escalation into a wider conflict, one that could go nuclear.  We got close enough to that in the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I started learning about that in first grade.  It was 1962, and all of a sudden what used to be “tornado” drills, were now called “air raid” drills.  We first graders were lined up in the hallway, against the brick wall; head between our knees and hands over our neck.  We knew that if a “bomb” went off, we’d be OK.  But we felt bad for our teachers, standing behind us, nervously pacing the hallway.  They were going to get “hit”.  

It was the Cuban missile crisis, and we were living in a Detroit suburb.  A twenty megaton bomb on Detroit would absolutely have destroyed our community as well, sitting or standing. 

So instead of risking direct conflict, the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in a series of “proxy” wars.  One side would support a “third party proxy” to combat the other. It started in Korea, when the Soviets supported North Korea and later China in direct warfare with US and other allied Forces.  Then Vietnam, when the Soviets supported North Vietnam against the direct intervention of the US in South Vietnam.  Next was Afghanistan, when the US supported the Mujahideen against the Soviets.  And throughout the era, there were multiple parts of Africa and the Middle East, where both Soviets and Americans supported groups struggling to gain power.

Pay to Play

The Cold War ended when the Soviet Union went bankrupt trying to “keep up” with the United States militarily.  It wasn’t just the enormous amount of both blood and treasure the USSR was spending in Afghanistan, it was also the high tech weaponry that cost astronomical amounts to create and produce.  An example:  the US built 32 SR-71 Blackbirds as a supersonic, edge of space flying platform for reconnaissance.  They cost  $23 million each.  In response, the Soviets developed their own Mig 25 Foxbat and Mig 31 Foxhound to try to shoot the SR-71’s down.  All of the planes were extremely costly, but the US economy was strong enough to bear the cost.  The Soviet economy was not.

Out of the ashes of the Soviet collapse, the present day Russian oligarchy rose.  It’s a nation based on corruption, the wealth of a few individuals based on the “fire sale, pennies on the dollar” dissolution of the state owned Communist economy.   The leaders of Russia are the rich, and the people of Russia are left behind, just as they were by the Soviet system.  President Vladimir Putin has greater goals than just his billions of rubles hidden away.  He wants to rebuild the “Soviet Empire” as his own Russian Empire.  It’s nothing new, he’s been doing it for two decades.  

Russian Empire

The world did little about Russian incursions into Georgia and Chechnya.  And Putin has pulled Belarus and Armenia “close” as well.  Even when Russia sliced off two eastern provinces and Crimea in Ukraine in 2014, the only world response was economic sanctions.

So it should be no surprise that Putin wanted more, and launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine two years ago.  The difference is, for the first time, a former Soviet province had enough power to stand up to Russian might, and even drive it back.  That’s where we are today, two years later.  The Ukrainian democracy isn’t perfect, but it’s stopped what was supposed to be the third most powerful military force in the world.  

That’s in the United States best interests.  If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, there is no reason for him to stop there.  Transnistria, a renegade province of neighboring Moldova, is already under Russian influence.  And bordering Moldova is Bulgaria, a member of NATO.  NATO members also are west of Ukraine, and next “on the block” for Russian expansion.  Under Article 5 of the NATO charter, an attack on one member is an attack on us all.

Ukraine’s Stand

The equation is simple.  We can support Ukraine, willing to shed their blood to stop the Russian advance.  The US can spend money and resources without risking American lives, and not only defend Ukraine, but drain the Russian military and economy even more.  It’s a scenario that Ronald Reagan would love.

Or we can let Ukraine fail, and Russia takeover.  And we can expect that, soon, we will be fighting with American forces, somewhere in a NATO country in Eastern Europe.  And, by the way, the missiles are still in the silos, the “bombs” can still be on the way.  Do we want a direct confrontation with the “other” biggest nuclear power in the world?

The choice is clear – a “pay me now” or “surely pay me later” scenario.  If we can look past our own domestic politics, it’s in every American’s interest to help Ukraine.  We can call it military aid, which it is, or we can use the ruse of “lending” Ukraine materials, a loan that will never be repaid.  It doesn’t matter what the political fig leaf is; what matters is that the materials keep flowing to Ukraine.  Not only does their courage and sacrifice deserve it; it’s in America’s best interest. 

Ukraine Crisis

A Horse for the Race

Super Tuesday

It’s the week after “Super Tuesday”; supposed to be the “pivotal moment” of the 2024 Primary campaigns.  But there were no surprises on “Super Tuesday”, in fact, it really wasn’t quite so “super” at all.  The results, with maybe an exception in Vermont, were entirely predictable.  In fact, the Democrats made up their mind a long time before “Super-Day”, so it’s no surprise that Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate.  And so did the MAGA-Republican Party (not your father’s Republicans, or mine).  They are committed to following a whole dark ideology, represented best by the Republican retort to the State of the Union address last Thursday night.

Thirty-eight year old Alabama Senator Katie Britt delivered the speech, ostensibly from her kitchen table (though my kitchen didn’t look that good the day after they built it in 2013).  She projected “America” as a dark world, where families huddle around the table, holding hands in prayer, unable to pay their bills and waiting for undocumented migrants (not “illegals” for God’s sake) to break down the doors and do unspeakable things.  Well, not unspeakable, Senator Britt was certainly willing to describe in detail the human trafficking and raping of a migrant woman.  Too bad that was all in Mexico, not in the United States, and during the Bush Administration. 

And while Britt didn’t straight-out say it, she certainly made the point:  only Donald Trump can fix this problem. As Saturday Night Live put it: Britt’s America is Hell.

 So here we are, like a seventh “Rocky” movie:  Biden versus Trump, the sequel. It’s certainly not a “dream race” of American politics, not a Kennedy versus Nixon, or even an Obama versus McCain.  Call it what it is:  two old men, running again.  

No Labels

After Super Tuesday’s results, the leadership of the “No Labels Party” met to decide whether to place a third party Presidential ticket on the ballot in November.   After more than a year of claiming that they were open to stepping back, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the answer is, “we’re running”.  Millions of dollars, and a running fight, mostly with Democrats, already set that answer into stone.  

Here’s the “calculus” for November.  The MAGA-Republican Party, as Nikki Haley was quick to discover, is singularly the property of Donald Trump.  Sure, Haley won a decent percentage of vote in some states, but those were usually states with “open” primaries, where independents and Democrats could “cross-over” to vote against Trump.  But when it came down to just MAGA-Republicans, it was “all Trump, all of the time”.  

If they didn’t go for Haley (or any of the other candidates), those MAGA-loyalists aren’t going to vote for a “No Labels” candidate.  So don’t expect a third party to make in-roads into the Trump vote.

Compromiser

That’s why Democrats are concerned about “No Labels”.  Regardless of all the propaganda about Biden being in the thrall of left-wing Progressives, the President is actually a moderate committed to legislative compromise.  Need proof:  look at the bipartisan border bill that was poised to pass the Senate and even the House.  Biden committed to signing it.  It took the direct intervention of Trump to force Republican legislators to turn against the bill that their own conservative member, Senator Langford of Oklahoma, authored.

Democrats are factional: that’s always been the nature of the modern party.  True progressives aren’t comfortable with Biden, a “compromiser” (that’s a bad word, I guess, right after being a politician).  But here’s the point – those progressives aren’t going to vote for a corporate No Labels candidate.  

So where will No Labels get their votes?  About thirty percent of Americans are “independent”, not aligned with either party.  Typically that’s where Presidential elections are won, or lost.  If 30% of the vote is monolithically MAGA-Republican, and 40% is Democratic; No Labels sees “fertile ground” in the remaining voters.   

Never Trumpers

 A percentage of those voters are ex-Republican “Never Trumpers”, like Ohio’s former Governor John Kasich or Utah’s Senator Mitt Romney.  They won’t vote for Trump, but they can’t stomach Joe Biden either.  They are likely No Labels voters, and probably didn’t vote for Joe Biden in 2020 either. 

And a percentage are far-left progressives.  They might vote for a Bernie Sanders’ Democrat, but are likely to choose a Jill Stein-type Green Party selection.  They certainly aren’t going to vote for an even more moderate No Labels candidate, though some may choose Biden in order to stop Trump.

So that leaves a “target” group of about 15% – far from the number needed to win. So what is the No Labels party goal?  If they can’t win, and if they can’t even make a dent, why are they running?  

Who’s the Horse

Before we answer that question, there’s an even more important one.  Who is the No Labels candidate?  Here, eight months before the election, we know who isn’t a No Labels candidate:  Joe Manchin (retiring), Larry Hogan (running for Senate), Chris Sununu (endorsed Trump), Chris Christie (committed to stopping Trump); all turned it down.  In fact, this week No Labels publicized that former Republican Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan is seriously considering accepting the nomination.   Geoff Duncan for President:  that’s going to drive folks to the polls, right?  (As a former campaign operative, he’s already got one problem – folks are going to look at “Geoff” and think that’s a silly way to say “Jeff”). 

Is No Labels going to impact the 2024 campaign?  Are they going to pull votes away from Biden, the “dark conspiracy theory” reason that will get Trump elected?  Are millions of votes going to run out and vote for Geoff so that don’t have to vote for Donald or Joe?  

Thoroughbreds

To run for President, like running in the Kentucky Derby, you’ve got to have a race horse.  Manchin, Hogan, Christie, even Haley would at least by a thoroughbred coming out of the gate.  But all of them see No Labels as a losing effort, not just for the Presidency, but for the nation.  And, whether you like the spelling of Geoff or not, former Lieutenant Governor Duncan “ain’t no thoroughbred”.  In fact, he’s not ever been on a real track.  

No Labels can’t find a horse to run in the race, in spite of all the “dark” money flowing into their coffers.  And, just like the Derby, no horse means no odds, and no race.  

Sorry Geoff, and No Labels.  You won’t even be a sideshow in 2024:  the year America determines the future of Democracy.

Come to the Light

Scary Movies

 I don’t watch scary movies.  It’s always been a “thing”.  I can trace it all back to one of my early memories.  I was just six years-old, watching a television show in black and white called The Outer Limits.  It was a science fiction show, and this episode was about  our earth invaded by an alien force.  The aliens were ants, big ants, maybe six or eight inches long ants.  And they’d crawl up the pants legs of the earthlings, creating searing agony with their bites.  The chewed their way to power.

I had nightmares for weeks. To this day, I occasionally wake myself up in the middle of the night.  My subconscious knows that the giant ant nightmare is coming, and it’s time to get up, take a walk, and find another “train of thought” to fall asleep to.  Oh, and shake out my pants legs.  

I’ve avoided scary movies ever since.  I haven’t seen the “classics”, the Halloween series, or Sigourney Weaver in Alien.  In fact, one of the only “horror” movies I sat through was called Poltergeist.  Four of us were on a summer road trip, driving a van across the country, from Ohio to Washington State to the California/Mexico border and back.  One night in Rapid City, South Dakota, my compatriots decided we were going to a horror movie.  No amount of, “I’ll just hang out in the bar” was enough to avoid the experience.  Luckily, we were all staying in one hotel room that night.  I still didn’t get much sleep.

Poltergeist

The movie was about a young girl, named Carol Ann. Her spirit was threatened  by evil.  The evil spirits wanted retribution – her home was built on a desecrated cemetery.   A  spiritualist was brought in to keep Carol Ann with the living, and she struggled against the evil spirits trying to drag her away.  The battle for Carol Ann’s spirit came down to “the light”, crossing over to the spirit world.  The Spiritualist said: “Carol Anne – listen to me. Do *not* go into the light. Stop where you are. Turn away from it. Don’t even look at it.”

The light was a ruse.  It seemed like the spiritual light to heaven, when in fact, it was the light to evil.  And even though I was terrified by the “horror”, I still got the point.  Sometimes, “the light” isn’t what it seems to be.  Sometimes, you need to turn away from the light.

 A Union of Light

I watched the State of the Union address last night, and the Republican response.  Listen, Joe Biden is no Barack Obama, he is solid “Joe” from Scranton, Pennsylvania.  He’s a plain spoken man. But he certainly enjoyed his eighty minutes in the limelight, giving as good as he got when the hecklers yelled from the crowd. (Remember when a Congressman yelled “liar” at Barack Obama? That shocked all of us; the decorum the State of the Union was broken.  Now, we were all waiting for it.  Our times are “a-changing”).  

Biden painted a picture of America on the way “up”, with the economy breaking record highs, inflation under control, violent crime going down and unemployment at all-time lows.  And he recognized that not everyone was sharing in the “wealth”, and laid out programs to make their lives better too.  

And the President gave us a clear view of how the United States would help restore order in the world, from backing Ukraine, strengthening NATO, and even building a seaport in Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid.  Like it or not, Biden offered America solutions for our problems.

Biden also explained America’s choice in 2024.  His message was stark:  we are choosing between a republic and oligarchy; democracy or authoritarianism.  There are, in fact, two lights drawing the American people in opposite directions.  

A Union of Dark

The difference between those two lights was dramatically (overly dramatic) emphasized by the Republican “retort” to the State of the Union. Alabama Senator Katie Britt delivered the speech from her literal “kitchen table”.  Her America is quite dark, overrun by illegal immigrants threatening mayhem at every turn.  In her America, it seems, that the average family huddles in prayer and fear around their kitchen table, looking for “the light” to lead them out of their torment.   And that light, to the Senator, is the twice-impeached, four-time indicted presumptive Republican Party nominee.  As Trump says, only he can fix it.  Now all he needs to do is say – come to the light.  

When we get past all the nonsense; worries about Joe’s clarity of thought, or physical ability to govern (despite the “Make America Great Again” Pac commercial), America is faced with a vision.  Is our Nation in an evil place, looking for the light and protection of Trump?  Or are we on the way up, to the better America that Joe Biden offers?

We need to choose – which light will we “come to”?

The Clubs Choose

The Rant

Here’s a short rant.  I’m tired of hearing “pundits” talk about how uneducated Americans are when it comes to government and politics.  I can tell you, for sure, that every kid who went to high school in the United States got a “government” or “civics” course, along with American History.  Every American public school kid was “exposed” to the structure of our government, the process of our elections, and even the function of political parties.  

Did they get it?  Do they remember it fifteen years later? That, I can’t tell you.  But the line I hear over and over again on the media is; “Well, we don’t teach civics anymore, so folks don’t know…”  To use the succinct but eloquent phrase of the  Marjorie Stoneman Douglas kids, “I call BS”.  Americans knew, and remember again when they need to.

Whew; got that off my chest. 

Parties

One of the harder concepts to teach in Government class is the four-part American Presidential election system.  It’s not just “an election”.  It’s a series of elections, caucuses, conventions, all leading to the major political parties choosing a candidate at their “big” convention.  Then it’s another election, but that election isn’t a simple “winner and loser” election.  It’s an election to choose “electors” to the Electoral College (that doesn’t even have a football team).  And, as January 6th, 2021 made it extremely clear, even winning the most electors isn’t really a guarantee.

But to get back to the primary process, it’s a difficult concept for students to get.  So it’s an election when everyone can vote, but they can only vote for the candidates in the party they choose to belong to.  And, if you’re not in a party, you can’t vote for those candidates.  But, in many states (like Ohio) you can switch parties by just asking for the other party’s ballot.  So it sounds complicated, really more complicated than it actually is.

Join the Club

So I would explain it like this:  the political parties are just clubs; clubs with a goal of running people for office.  The primaries are the “clubs” voting for which candidate will represent their club against the other club.  And only the “club” members can vote, that makes sense.  People who aren’t in the “club” shouldn’t have a say in who the “club” chooses.  So last night, “Super Tuesday”, was a whole bunch of state “clubs” choosing the candidate to represent their  state at the National club convention come July (Republican) or August (Democrat).  

Today, about 39% of voters are in the Democratic Club, and 29% are in the Republican Club (Ballotpedia).  That leaves 32% of American voters who are left out of the “club” selection process.  Since they aren’t members (however their state sets that up), they don’t get to choose.  And there’s one other point that’s important.  The “clubs” do the same things, and have similar elections – but they’re not the same size.  

Horse Race

Last night’s media coverage was naturally slanted towards the Republican “club” elections.  Of course it was.  The Republicans had a “contest”, Trump versus Haley.  And the Republicans had a question (answered now), who would their club choose.  That’s opposed to the other “club”, who had the incumbent President.  Biden was running essentially unopposed (sorry to point that out, obscure Congressman from Minnesota Mr. What’s-Your-Name??)  

The media, and the public, want a competition, a “horse race”.  There wasn’t really a horse race in the 2024 campaign on either side, but Nikki Haley tried to make one.  Last night we watched the Haley effort breakdown on the backstretch.  To push the horse race analogy to the limit:  their putting the tent up around the “Haley horse” on the backstretch right now.  They don’t shoot broken race horses anymore, they “euthanize” them quietly, on the track, under the tent, out of the view of the public.  

Haley’s candidacy ended last night, it will be put out of its misery today.

My Club’s Bigger than Theirs

But keep in mind, the Republican “Club” is significantly smaller than the Democratic “Club”.  What looks like an “even” horse race, isn’t, from the start.  If every Republican comes out and votes for Trump, it’s 29% of the vote.  If every Democrat votes for Biden, it’s 39%.  Trump needs to get the lion’s share of the “no-club” vote to get elected, almost two-thirds. Biden doesn’t need quite as many “no-clubs”,  about one-third.

The Presidential primary season ended last night – even though there will be more “club votes” on into June.  And there are important things happening in those primaries.  New Jersey, for example, will be choosing “club” candidates for the US Senate on the first Tuesday in June.  Six Democrats are lining up to try to follow Bob Menendez, the current Democratic Senator under multiple criminal indictments.  The two front runners, Congressman Andy Kim and the Governor’s wife, Tammy Murphy, are having a good “horse race”.  But as far as Trump and Biden are concerned, the “fight” for the convention is over.

Like it or not, as Julius Caesar would say, “Alea iacta Est”, “the die is cast”.  It’s the rematch of 2020, Biden v Trump, two old men vying for a job they’ve both done.   Trump has to overcome his smaller “club”.  Biden has to motivate his “club” to show up in November.  And both have to find ways to sway the “non-clubbers”.  Watch Biden start that motivation and persuasion tomorrow night.  It’s time for another one of those “Civics Class” moments – The State of the Union Address.  

Get your popcorn ready!!!!

Under Siege

Vicksburg

Warfare is often ugly; but seldom uglier than the form called “laying siege”.  A siege is not a battle, at least, not in the World War II, mobile armor sense.  I’m an old American History teacher and a Civil War “buff. So I look to Grant’s siege of the Confederate Army of Mississippi at Vicksburg for my example.  For forty-seven days, the Union Army surrounded Vicksburg, and controlled the Mississippi River above and below the town.  Confederate General Pemberton was unable to break his 43,000 troops out, and Grant’s 77,000 cut all supplies.

But it wasn’t just the Confederate soldiers who suffered in Vicksburg.  The 4,000 civilians, including some who were enslaved, were trapped along with the Confederate forces.  They not only endured the artillery barrages and the constant small arms fire, but they were starved as well.  When they ran out of regular meat, they ate horses, then dogs, then rats.  Pemberton had to consider the condition of his troops, but also those 4,000 civilians. He finally surrendered his forces and the city on July 4th, 1863.  With the fall of Vicksburg, the Confederacy lost the Mississippi River; and the breakaway South was split in two.

Rafah

What’s the difference between the siege of Vicksburg and the Israeli siege of Gaza today?  Like Grant’s Union forces, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) used overwhelming numbers to push Hamas forces into smaller and smaller sections of the region.  The problem for the IDF, is that they are unable to distinguish between the 2 million Palestinians who live in Gaza, and the 20,000 to 30,000 actual Hamas terrorists and their leaders “embedded” (hiding) among them.

Unlike Pemberton’s Confederates, Hamas is unconcerned about the condition of civilians.  In fact, Hamas welcomes the suffering.  It makes their position stronger in the world.  And, of course, Grant didn’t have the entire world watching the conditions in Vicksburg, the women and children hiding in caves as the artillery shells exploded, disease and death around every corner. But if he did, Grant would have placed the blame on the Confederates. He was willing to accept Pemberton’s surrender at any time.  

Israel is trying to place the blame on Hamas.  But the world sees something different.  We see the truly innocent children of Gaza starving to death.  And even though Hamas controls most of the information coming out of Rafah, the reality and scope of hundreds of thousands starving is evident.  

Responsibility

Perhaps the responsibility for the starving in Gaza should be on Hamas, but the world, rightly, says different.  And so the IDF, set to destroy every vestige of Hamas for the terror of October 7th, is forced to break the first “rule” of siege warfare:  don’t supply your enemy.    

Two hundred trucks a day were coming from Egypt to Israel, and then into Gaza.  The Gazan Police, a branch of Hamas, took  direct responsibility for distribution of aid.  But the IDF saw the police as “the enemy”, and so the trucks dwindled to less than fifty, to feed millions.  As John Wayne said:  “My fault, your fault, nobody’s fault”:  many are starving.  

The United States is pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to get more food into Gaza.  Netanyahu is trying to shift the blame to Hamas, just as Grant would shift the blame to Pemberton.  But in the eyes of President Biden, and much of the rest of the world, the fact that Hamas doesn’t care about its own citizens, doesn’t “absolve” Israel of responsibility.  And with the Gazan Police out of the equation, the few food convoys are targets, not just for thousands of starving families, but for Gazan street gangs who recognize that food is power.  And for Hamas, chaos is “good”.

Ramadan

It’s a setup for the kind of “food massacre” that happened the other day, when over one hundred Palestinians were killed, some by Israeli bullets, and some in the crush of a panicked crowd.  It puts the IDF right where Hamas wants them – in the spotlight of world opinion.

Meanwhile, the United States and other nations are air-dropping military rations (MRE’s – meals ready to eat) onto the beaches of Gaza.  There is no control over who gets the rations; and they are “a drop in the bucket”, maybe 100,000 meals to a starving population of at least 300,000.  But it’s something, and more air-drops are planned.  Some say those drops make the US look weak, unable to “force” their ally Israel to their will.  But the US is drawing a line:  starving the population is not acceptable, for either Hamas or Israel.  If you won’t do something about it, we will.  It places pressure on all sides to solve the problem.  

Israel publicly plans on ending the siege by destroying Hamas. The goal: destroy Hama’s leadership whatever the cost.

But there are ongoing  cease-fire talks: the United States, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and Hamas are negotiating in Cairo.  They are indirect.  The Hamas delegation talks to Qatari mediators, who bring proposals back and forth to the rest. The thought of Hamas and Israel sitting down together is too much to bear.

 And the high Islamic holiday of Ramadan begins next week.  Ramadan, “Honors the time when Allah, via the angel Gabriel, revealed the first verses of the Qur’an, the holy book of Islam, to a caravan trader named Muhammad (Almanac)”.  It is a holiday celebrating the founding of Islam, and to observe it, Muslims fast each day from dawn to dusk.  This year it lasts for a month.

For the people of Gaza, fasting is not a celebration, it’s a forced reality.  Hopefully Ramadan is the right time for all sides to stop bleeding, and start feeding.

Singing in the Tornado

This is another Sunday Story (and another dog story). No politics here, just a story of our life with five dogs!!

Dog Rehab

It’s been a long few weeks since our Lab had ACL knee surgery (Sad, Sad Boy).  It’s Atticus, the dog that’s allergic to everything (his special food is salmon and sweet potatoes), the Lab with anxiety issues, the sweet boy who can lose his mind in the wrong sequence of events.  So it shouldn’t be a surprise that his recovery is taking longer than possible.  Of course, his knee is infected, swelling up and keeping him up at night.  Of course, each week of infection stretches the time it will take to get him back to “normal” (or at least normal for him) now deep into April.  And of course, his first antibiotic was so powerful, Jenn and I had to wear gloves to handle to pills.

So he didn’t eat for a few days (except for treats and carrots).  And, I’m sure, the swelling was painful.  Even the heavy-handed menu of painkillers and anti-anxiety drugs didn’t last the scheduled twelve hours.  It’s Atticus; we get eight hours for eight pills at best.

We moved him out of Jenn’s office and into the family room.  At least he isn’t so isolated, and we aren’t either.  Oh, and if he’s awake, he needs one of us around.  “I don’t feel right” is his most popular whine, followed quickly by “where are you?” So Jenn and I take turns sleeping on the couch, being there for the two in-the-morning walk,  or  when the drugs wear off too soon.

So we’re all tired.  Not just Atticus, Jenn and I; but the other four dogs.  Recovery is tough on them too.  

Full Belly and Sleep

But Wednesday night, after Atticus ate for the first time in a week,  everyone went peacefully to sleep.  Well, after the 2:30 am walk.  Atticus had to go for the first time in days – no waiting for that.  At 5:00 the other dogs went out per their own schedule, and then we all were snoozing deeply again.  Maybe we’d make it to 7:00?

The alert siren on my phone went off at 5:45.  I could hear Jenn’s phone going off in the bedroom too:  TORNADO WARNING for Licking County.   And then the local siren, just down the street, started its mournful wail.

Now all the dogs were fired up – waking from a sound sleep to the phones and then the siren.  But Lou, our rescue from Louisiana, has a special affinity for sirens.  It’s his “Call of the Wild”  moment, when his inner wolf gains expression.  Lou picked up the tune, howling at full volume.  It’s a hauntingly beautiful wail from the bottom of his soul.  You can feel the ages of wolf-to-dog fall away: this is the canine primeval.

Well of course, our little one, CeCe, had to join in.  She’s doesn’t have an inner wolf, but she can sure bark the loudest in the pack.  Keelie, the mother dog of us all, worriedly watched her friends, and Buddy, our oldest dog, went to get under the bed. It’s too much noise for him.  Atticus drowsily opened one eye.

Tornado Scofflaw

I turned on the TV, saw the local radar, and went to wake Jenn (yep, she can sleep though it all).  “Honey, the radar says a tornado could be here in about five minutes – time to get up.”

Now I’m a notorious scofflaw when it comes to tornado warnings.  In fact, I’m one of those track coaches/officials who stands out in the field and watches the weather come in while all the kids go into the school for protection.  It’s just a thing – I love weather, I’ve camped through a tornado and watched the derecho tear down a forest around us.  But I do have a thing about tornadoes in the dark, and it wasn’t dawn yet in this “freak” (or climate changed) February storm.

So Jenn was shocked and concerned when I said we needed to get to the bathrooms.  We live in a ranch-style house, no basement.  The two rooms in the center core of the house are the bathrooms, both backing up to an “exterior wall” that now is in the middle of our home.  And, the addition that put the wall in the middle, also put a “double roof” over both bathrooms, even more protection.

But they aren’t giant sized bathrooms, just regular-sized.  There’s not enough room for Jenn and me, and five dogs.  Besides, Lou isn’t sure what to do with an injured Atticus, and Atticus is intimidated, knowing he’s sub-par with Lou.  Jenn took Atticus and Buddy (not happy to get out from under the bed) in one bathroom, I took Lou, Keelie and CeCe in the other.  

Waiting for a Train

We hung out for about twenty minutes.  The dogs kept looking at me, wondering what this new game was all about.  I was watching TV on my phone, trying to detect what was going to happen by examining the local radar.  It was easier in the old days with just green, orange, red and occasionally purple cloud splotches. Now there’s digitally generated map of green and red slashes, showing wind shears in the atmosphere.   When the rectangles of color are side-by-side, it means that a tornado is likely.  

So we sat, waiting for the power to go out, waiting for the sirens to stop, waiting for the freight train sound of an impending tornado strike.

We got lucky.  Friends only a few miles away actually were hit be a tornado; trees down, roofs shredded, power lines webbing the streets.  But here, the urban camouflage passed us by, headed east towards Newark and the rest of the state.  It’s always odd to listen to the Columbus-based TV weather-people, so relieved when the storm passes urban Columbus by.  Downtown’s relief means someone east is now under the gun, with consequences just as serious.  “Oh, the storm is out to Zanesville”, isn’t a relief if you live in Zanesville.

And we did get a late-morning nap, the dogs spread about the floor, Atticus in his crate, and Jenn and I in our “chairs”.  The storm front dropped the temperatures from May back to February.  Now we’re warm besides the fire.  Maybe Lou’s dreaming about that first wolf, the one that came in from the cold to a human camp just to get warm.

The Sunday Story Series