A Russian Moon
Wednesday was crazy. Mike Turner, Dayton’s Congressman and the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, leaked Russian plans for putting nuclear weapons in space. It brings back the famous Lyndon Johnson quote from the early days of the 1960’s “Space Race” (and the movie The Right Stuff):
“I do not believe that this generation of Americans is willing to resign itself to going to bed each night by the light of a Communist moon”.
If not a “Communist” moon, how about a Russian nuclear weapon, orbiting earth.
That’s the vision that Mike Turner wanted Americans to see, even though both President Biden and National Security Advisor Sullivan painted Russian plans as more aspirational than real. In fact, Turner wasn’t even briefed on those plans, yet. And the Kansas City shootings at the Super Bowl celebration took over the headlines.
So why is Turner, known as a stalwart member of the senior House leadership, “flipping cars ”? Perhaps he’s trying to make the point: Russia is a threat now. Keeping the Russian military in a long, men-and-materiel sucking war in Ukraine is a good thing for the United States. For just a “little” treasure, and no American blood, we can sap Russian strength.
Get Trump Elected
The Senate passed an Israel/Taiwan/Ukraine military aid bill. Speaker Johnson in the House claims that he will not allow that bill on the floor for a vote, where it would certainly pass with support from all of the Democrats, and many Republicans. Johnson is under pressure from the MAGA-Trump camp to deny-deny-deny any action that might be seen as a “Biden Win”. Long term policy isn’t a factor anymore; it’s about keeping Biden down so Trump might do better in November’s election.
The Speaker controls the agenda (the greatest power of his office). Sure, there is an arcane parliamentary move to circumvent his authority, the “discharge petition”. A majority of House members can demand a bill come to the floor without the Speaker’s approval (after thirty days). But it will require at least a couple of Republicans to stand against the Speaker, and more importantly, Trump and his MAGA-caucus. And that hasn’t happened in a while.
But with all the worry about Ukraine, and deeper concern about what China will try to do to Taiwan, there is an even more important issue. The United States is at a crossroads, and not just Biden versus Trump, or Democrats versus MAGA-Republicans, or even the existential crisis of American government. We are also at a crossroads of world authority.
Woodrow Wilson
At the end of World War I, American President Woodrow Wilson led the US delegation to the Versailles peace conference. Wilson had a world vision, where there would be less warfare. He wanted to allow ethnic groups to have their own nations. Wilson’s world had an international governing body, the League of Nations, to act as the referee when international conflict arose. And Wilson had the Fourteen Points of human rights, an aspiration for a better world.
And even though the victorious nations of Europe were more interested in getting treasure in the form of reparations from the defeated powers, they were willing to humor Wilson. The American thumb on the scale helped tip the balance of war in their favor: they owed him that.
But they weren’t committed to Wilson’s vision, and as it turned out, only he truly was. When the US Senate refused to ratify the peace treaty, and kept the United States out of the League of Nations; the dream of world peace soon went by the wayside. America isolated itself behind “Fortress America” of the Atlantic and Pacific. World War II wasn’t the “fault” of the United States, but it could have been prevented by the United States. It’s the lesson that Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and the American leadership learned.
Pax Americana
So America took the lead after World War II, now clearly the military and economic power in the world (and Oppenheimer’s addition: the US had the only nuclear weapons). Not only did we sponsor the United Nations, but we led a series of alliance systems throughout the world. The most important of those was (and is) NATO, the alliance system designed to offset the power of the then-Soviet Union.
Like him or not, Ronald Reagan “won” the Cold War. He did it by forcing the Soviet Union to try to match US defense spending. The US spent six percent of Gross Domestic Product on the military, but to match it, the Soviets were forced to spend over twenty percent of theirs. The Soviet Union fell during the George HW Bush administration, and Russia has been a mess ever since; a kleptocracy, as state owned industries were “privatized”, often for kopecks on the ruble (pennies on the dollar). And the kleptocrats found a “defender” who “legitimized” their money – Vladimir Putin.
Russian Empire
But Putin made it very public that while he is no longer a Communist, his goal is a return of the Soviet Empire. Ever since he consolidated power, he has pressed former Soviet states like Georgia, Belarus; and taken advantage of world instability to gain footholds in Syria and Africa (NATO: Canada). And, of course, there was the open invasions of Chechnya and Ukraine.
Until the second invasion of Ukraine, there was little the United States could do besides economic sanctions. And Putin was happy to pass the pain of sanctions onto the Russian people: even more reason for them to support him, and blame the West. But when the Ukrainian people stood up to Russia, the United States found a lever to stall Putin’s long-term plan. By the US supplying Ukrainian forces, Russia was forced into the largest ground war since World War II.
A Choice
So here we are at the “crossroads”. The MAGA-Republicans echo the 1920’s Senate, trying to step away from world authority and hide in “Fortress America”. It’s the same policy with the same name: America First. But, as Congressman Turner pointed out, we are in a world where Russian satellites armed with nuclear weapons can bridge the oceans in minutes. To turn our back on the threat is simply to invite them to our door.
NATO literally waits with bated breath. Will the United States live up to their promise, to Article Five of the NATO Treaty and defend NATO Eastern Europe? Or will we end up in Steve Bannon’s tacit alliance with Russia (and maybe China), splitting the “spoils” of treachery? It starts in a trench in Eastern Ukraine, on the floor of the United States House of Representatives, and in the ballot box and towns across America this November. Is it 1921, or 1945? That is the decision we face, which road to take. We are at the “crossroads”.
Note: As I publish this essay – word comes that Alexei Navalny, the courageous Russian opposition leader, died in a prison. He so believed in the cause of Russian freedom, he risked certain death to go back. He made the ultimate sacrifice, willingly. What will we do?
