October 7th
The President of the United States sent two US Navy Carrier Groups into the Middle East after the October 7th Hamas attack; the Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Gerald R. Ford. Those groups aren’t just the aircraft carriers themselves, the most advanced military “hardware” in the world. There’s the carrier, then two guided missile cruisers, two anti-aircraft ships, and two anti-submarine ships. Often there’s an attack submarine trailing the group as well. That’s sixteen US Naval vessels in the Middle East total, split between the Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf.
A carrier group represents the greatest extension of US power short of landing troops on the ground in the region. And they were put in the area for a single purpose: to put Iran on notice that the United States would not tolerate their direct involvement against Israeli operations in Gaza fighting Hamas. Practically, the message was: Israel will deal with Hamas, and if Iran tries to intervene, they’ll face the full might of the US Navy.
Militias
Iran not only supports Hamas, the terrorist group in Gaza that began this round of Middle East violence with their October 7th attack on Israeli civilians. Iran also supports “irregular” forces in many Middle East nations, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and multiple groups in Iraq. All of these “militias” are directly supported by the Iranian Republican Guard Qods Force, the “tip of the spear” of Iranian military intervention in other Middle Eastern countries. The Qods Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, died in a US drone strike in Iraq during the Trump Administration.
Those groups give the Iranian government itself “plausible deniability” for their actions. While they may only exist with the support of the Qods Force, Iran claims not to have direct control over them. This way, Iran can deny responsibility for the October 7th attacks, even though it’s unrealistic to think Hamas could plan such a dramatic move without Iranian support and consent.
But more importantly, Iran has, at best, turned a “blind eye” towards many of those militia groups attacking US personnel in the region. For the past several weeks, US forces have engaged in a “tit-for-tat” response, particularly with Houthi attacks on merchant shipping and US forces in the Red Sea leading to the Suez Canal.
US Bases
And there are a number of US bases, with US troops physically there, throughout the Middle East. Some US troops are protecting the oil fields in eastern Syria, some are watching the remains of ISIS in Iraq, and some are “advising” Jordanian and Iraqi government forces. There are US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 30,000 troops are stationed in the region. And that doesn’t include the fifteen thousand in the Carrier Groups (Reuters).
President Biden made it clear that a direct attack on US Forces would trigger a direct response. Last weekend, three American soldiers in their barracks in Jordan died in a drone attack. Friday the United States launched a massive assault on seven locations in Syria and Iraq, hitting eighty-five separate targets. US Naval forces participated, and B-1 Bombers stationed in the continental United States as well.
Notably, there were no direct attacks on Iranian soil. American leaders stated that this was a “campaign”, not a “one-off” strike. They also noted that they were avoiding direct attacks on Iran, to prevent a further expansion of the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Simple Message
It’s a simple message: we put the carriers in the region as a warning, and the Iranian “proxies” ignored it. Yesterday’s attacks were a direct result of their targeting US personnel, the first of many. The goal is no longer just deterrence; it’s to degrade the ability of those militia groups to continue their attacks.
It’s a fine line. If Iran, using its “proxies”; responds in kind, it’s a further step towards confrontation. On the other hand, the United States cannot allow direct attacks on US Forces. Nor can we withdraw and allow Iranian domination of the Middle East.
And as that goes on, Israel and the United States are dividing. Israel seems to be razing Gaza. And President Biden is still committed to a “two-state” solution to the Palestinian issue. Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes that idea. So, as we are drawn farther into Middle East conflict, our own alliance with Israel is under stress.
And don’t be surprised when this issue “bleeds” into the American political campaign. Republicans in the Congress want direct attacks on Iran. The campaign issue may be: Republicans want full war in the Middle East, Democrats are trying to “hold the line”.
It will be interesting to see where the American people stand.
