Debate Night
So I spent Wednesday evening watching the Republican Primary Debate. And the question that kept coming up was; why are they here? Five candidates, some highly qualified to run for President, were standing behind the dais, and none of them have a “snowball’s chance” of winning the Republican nomination. Donald Trump is out-polling them all by at least twenty-five percent. The “standard line” of the Republican primary voter is: “I like (fill in the blank), but I’m voting for Donald Trump”.
So, three state Governors, a former US Attorney, a former Ambassador to the United Nations, a sitting US Senator, and an annoying but brilliant financial “wunderkind” are up there on the stage, and spending millions of dollars, for what?
They will all, except for Chris Christie, say that Trump is being “unjustly attacked” by the Justice Department. They won’t, except for Christie, “cross the line” and say that Trump might actually be guilty of Federal crimes. But they all know this reality: Donald Trump is facing ninety-one felony charges in four different jurisdictions. And one of those trials, the Federal Indictment in Washington for the events of January 6th, will go to trial in March.
What are all five of these candidates running for? They are running for an open seat in the Republican Presidential candidacy, vacated by a convicted Donald J Trump. They are hoping to inherit the Trump base, to become, to use the vernacular of our times, Trump 2.0.
Grand Old Party
That is, except for Chris Christie. He’s already given up on MAGA world. Christie represents the Republican Party of old, the Party of Bush and Romney and McCain. Even if Donald Trump were to choke on a dry cheeseburger and die tomorrow, Chris Christie would remain the last choice of the vast majority of the Republican primary voters.
Watching Christie on the stage Wednesday night, he seemed as much an observer as a participant. He reminded me of an aged quarterback, relegated to clean-up duty at the end of a professional football game. He no longer is there to throw the winning pass, or surprise the defense with a brilliant scramble. No matter how many rings he might have, all he can do is handoff to the third string running back, and manage the clock.
Christie’s answers are all well thought out, and reminiscent of days gone by. But he’s not of the Republican Party of this era. In fact, Christie is standing in for something else. He certainly won’t admit this, but I feel like the former Governor of New Jersey is using his Republicanism to audition for some other political party, one more like the GOP of ‘93, Bob Dole and Jack Kemp. Chris Christie may be on the Presidential ballot a year from now, but he’ll be listed under the “No Labels” Party banner.
His media schedule underscores this theory. After the debate, Christie wasn’t on Fox or Newsmax. Instead, he pulled up a seat at the table on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, and appeared on CNN. Christie isn’t talking to the MAGA-world there; but he might be reaching some of the “Never-Trump” former Republicans, the target of the “No Labels” movement.
No Labels Ticket
The Governor might partner with another “Man without a Party”, Joe Manchin. Manchin announced yesterday that he isn’t going to run for a fourth US Senate term from West Virginia. The Democrat faced an uphill battle (a West Virginia reference for sure) against current Republican Governor Jim Justice, now virtually assured of the Senate seat.
So there’s the nightmare 2024 scenario: Biden/Harris versus Trump/DeSantis versus Christie/Manchin, with Bobby Kennedy Junior and Cornell West thrown in for fun. Could our polarized and splintered politics be any better represented? I dare the pundits to pick the winner of that agglomeration.
It reminds me of the election of 1860: Lincoln (Republican) versus Douglas (Northern Democrat), versus Breckenridge (Southern Democrat), versus Bell (Constitutional Union). Abraham Lincoln won, but with only 40% of the popular vote. Douglas earned 30% of the popular vote, but only 4% of electoral votes. Lincoln had 60% of those, with the rest split among the other candidates.
Lincoln won, and the Civil War began a month after Lincoln arrived in Washington.
Wow, that got dark really fast.
Powerful Choices
There is a story about Franklin Roosevelt’s first Vice President, John Nance Garner, who gave up the powerful Speakership of the House to serve in the second position. When asked about the Vice Presidency, Garner said, “It wasn’t worth a bucket of warm piss!” But when Lyndon Johnson asked him why he took it, Garner told him that when they offer a job that is a single heartbeat away from the most powerful office in the world, you can’t turn it down.
“No Labels” may offer Christie a glimpse of that office, so alluring that the most powerful are willing to settle for “warm piss” to get close. But it might also offer the near certainty of Trump winning the Presidency. Here’s a ray of hope: Christie might decide to sit this one out. He will “only” be sixty-seven for the 2028 campaign. In our current political climate, sixty-seven is the “new fifty”. And Christie certainly doesn’t want to clean up the mess that a second Trump Presidency will create.
