The German General Staff called it the “Nebel des Kriege”s, the Fog of War; that time when all of the tactical planning ends, and the battle begins. The neatly organized lines on paper, become enmeshed with real conditions, the laws of ballistic physics, and the instant ramifications of decisions that are made, or not, by soldiers on the ground.
The al-Ahli Arab Hospital is an eighty-bed facility in the north part of the Gaza region. The Hospital was founded in 1882, and managed today by the Christian Episcopal Church. In the latest crisis in Gaza, it was a “safe zone” for Palestinians in the area. Obviously, no one would bomb a hospital. Hundreds of people were sheltering in the square in front, as the Israeli bombing campaign of Gaza City continued.
Mission to Israel
On Tuesday, October 17th, three days after the Hamas attack, President Biden prepared to board Air Force One. His missions were huge diplomatic risks for a US President. The entire “weight” of authority of the United States was on the line as he flew to Israel. The primary mission was to demonstrate American support for Israel, despite his recent criticisms of Prime Minister Netanyahu for trying to manipulate the power structure of the Israeli government.
All of the politics of that Israeli leader who was most supported by Biden’s opponent, Trump, were set aside for the moment. The terrorist attack of Saturday was greater than any political considerations. Hamas, out of the Palestinian Gaza Strip, launched a suicidal surprise assault that killed more than a thousand Israeli civilians. More Jews were killed in that attack then any event since the end of World War II, the Holocaust.
Biden was taking a personal risk as well. There could be no higher value target to terrorists like Hamas and Hizballah then the President of the United States. There were a variety of ways he could be targeted, from a shoulder carried anti-aircraft missile aimed at Air Force One, to a suicide bomber. Security couldn’t be tighter, but the danger was higher still. But Biden went, an wrapped his arms around Netanyahu, symbolically and literally grieving with the entire nation of Israel.
Mission to Amman
And Biden had a secondary mission. He was meeting with the President of Egypt, the King of Jordan, and the President of the Palestinian Authority, in Amman, Jordan, after his stop in Tel Aviv. The US President was trying to relieve the pressure of over two million Palestinians caught in the crossfire of Gaza. The “safety valve” was the Rafah boarding crossing from Gaza into Egypt. Refugees could go out, and essential supplies could go in, if only Egypt would open the border.
But Egypt wanted nothing to do with Palestinian refugees. It wasn’t just the cost of taking care of them; certainly Hamas would infiltrate the crowds leaving Gaza. The Hamas extremist group is aligned with the extremist Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, that hoped to overthrow the Egyptian government and bring in a Fundamentalist Islamic government . Egypt didn’t want any more additions to their problems.
And Biden wanted to keep the Palestinians in the West Bank peaceful, as well as gain support in keeping the Israeli battles to a single front in Gaza. King Abdullah would be critical to keeping the “moderate” Arab countries out of the fight.
The Bomb
And just as Biden was preparing to board Air Force One, word came from Gaza. There was an explosion at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City. In the modern era of social media, we immediately saw pictures of devastation. Bodies were strewn over the square, fires raged in the corners, children screamed, families searched for loved ones. (And in the midst of all that, it was apparent that the Palestinians in Gaza are surprisingly young. The demographic fact is that the median age in Gaza is eighteen. Over half of the Palestinians are, by American standards, children. In contrast, the median age in the United States is thirty-eight).
Hamas immediately jumped on the event, claiming that Israel targeted the Hospital. After all, the Israeli’s had already declared that Gaza City was open to attack. The Israeli military called for the Palestinians to evacuate to the south, and here was a square in the North, filled with Palestinians. Listening to the Hamas commentary, the hospital was directly attacked, and hundreds, perhaps even more, civilians were killed.
It made logical sense. Israel was dropping bombs all over Gaza. By intent or by mistake, it seemed obvious that the Hamas narrative was true.
The Arab world was outraged. There was no way that the President of the Palestinian Authority could meet with Biden, just minutes after he hugged Netanyahu. Neither could the President of Egypt, or King Abdullah. The Amman leg of the trip was cancelled, making Biden’s whole event about the United States supporting Israel, now seemingly engaged in an “ethnic cleansing” of Gaza.
The Story
Within hours the Israeli Defense Forces claimed that the explosion was not caused by their missiles. They detailed infra-red and satellite tracking data, showing where their missiles and planes were at the time of the explosion. The Israelis countered the Hamas’ claim, with evidence that a smaller terrorist group, Islamic Jihad, fired missiles at Israel from a cemetery nearby the hospital at the time of the explosion. One of their missiles mis-fired, landing in the hospital square.
Mark Twain supposedly said, “A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on”. The Hamas storyline was picked up, not just in the Arab world, but even by credible American media sources. Soon the world believed that the Israelis were responsible for the death of up to five hundred innocent Palestinians. What seemed like a “reasonable” response to the Hamas attack of Saturday, was turned to the “threat” of Jews committing genocide against innocent Palestinians.
By the next day, Biden was back home. The US intelligence agencies, followed by Biden and the Senate Intelligence Committee, all agreed that it was Islamic Jihad that was responsible, not Israel. The Israeli propaganda machine swung into action, putting the parents of the children lost in the original Hamas attack on television, sharing their heart wrenching stories. And while we still saw social media of the carnage in Gaza City, American and world media was saturated with the horrors of hostages and massacres in Israel, and the heroics of individuals trying to save the friends and families.
Retrenchment and Recrimination
Who benefitted from the bombing at the hospital? If Israel actually targeted that square, it was to demonstrate that they would give no quarter in gaining retribution for the Hamas attack. Israel was holding all of Gaza responsible. After warning Palestinians to evacuate, those who remained were “choosing” to stay in a “free-fire” zone.
IF Israel targeted the square, it was with the specific intent of stopping Biden’s secondary mission. It would mean that Israel wants the Palestinians in Gaza bottled up, starving, trapped between the border and the soon-to-come Israeli tanks. It would mean that the hardline Israeli government has decided to clear Gaza, of Hamas and Palestinians, once and for all.
And what if it was an Islamic Jihad mistake? Then Hamas was sure-footed, capitalizing on their ally’s error to load all of the burden of genocide onto Israel. Hamas doesn’t want the Palestinians out of the way for battle. They believe the Palestinians should stay in place, human shields around the Hamas missile sites and soldiers against the Israeli ground assault. Hamas see that as their religious mission: no higher cause than to die to in a “holy war”, a “jihad”. It’s the only reason they launched the suicide attack in the first place, to force Israel to respond by killing innocent Palestinians in an effort to assure Israeli security.
Loss
All of Israel’s enemies will believe the Hamas version. It will become another reason for “Jihad”, and a motivation for future terrorist suicide bombers. Truth or falsehood, it is another “fact” of the long history of Palestinian grievance.
And from Israel’s side, in the eyes of much of the world, it took away their “righteous indignation”. It made a terrorist organization, Hamas, look “equal” to a nation-state, Israel. And of course, Israeli or Islamic Jihad: for the families and friends of the casualties (probably more like a hundred) who died in the square it really doesn’t matter who fired the missile. Their loss remains the same. And the Israeli tanks are still poised at the border, ready to eradicate Hamas from Gaza.
The loss is really just beginning.
