The Constitution
It’s been twelve days since Kevin McCarthy was removed as leader of the House of Representatives. The Speaker’s job is the only Constitutionally mandated leadership structure in the House (Article 1, Section 2, Part 5). All of the other titles we talk about: majority and minority leaders and whips and committee chairmen; are constructs of political parties.
The authors of the Constitution were very familiar with “parties”, but they really didn’t approve. They felt that partisanship would represent narrow interests, something in our Federal system that was more a “state government” thing. The Congress should act in the broader interest of the Nation; political parties would get in the way.
I guess, looking at our current situation, they were right. But political parties emerged even during the Washington Administration, and by John Adams’ Presidency there were clear party delineations. And it’s been that way ever since.
The House cannot operate without a Speaker. The Speaker has the ultimate authority to determine actions, even if there are ways to “get around” a Speaker who refuses to act. The House can even overturn the Speaker’s decision. But if there’s no Speaker to get around, no decision to overturn, then there can be no action.
Temp-Job
McCarthy knew how tenuous his hold on the Speakership was. He had to agree to “party” rules allowing any majority party member to move to “vacate the Chair” (in the past it required five or even ten to agree). As McCarthy was only elected by the bare minimum required to win, 216; if one member who voted for him wanted him “vacated”, then he was vacated. And, thanks to Matt Gaetz of Florida, here we are.
So McCarthy also wrote a rule for a “Temporary Speaker”. That allowed the House to remain in session. And there are some Congressmen who are calling for the Temporary, Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, to allow other House business to continue. Some Democrats even offered to vote for him to become the “official/temporary” Speaker. But all of that is unprecedented, and could be unconstitutional. So we wait.
Some call for the Democrats to join with Republicans and choose a Speaker. After all, there are 213 Democrats, and McCarthy only lost by a couple of votes. And there are those Democrats who expressed interest in doing so. But “politics ain’t beanbag”. The Democrats want some share of power if their votes will determine the Speaker. No Republican has offered that kind of sharing, so Democrats remain solidly behind their own leader, Hakeem Jeffries. If a few Republicans want to vote for him, this whole problem would be solved. But that’s not happening either.
Extremes
The Republican Conference (all the Republicans in the House) first elected Steve Scalise of Louisiana, and then Jim Jordan of Ohio, as their nominee for the Speakership. The Conference “rule” used to be that the candidate who got the majority of votes in the Conference, would then get all of the Republican votes on the House floor. That was the “definition” of being a Republican (or Democrat) in the Congress. But that “rule” went out the window in 2022. Now Republican Congressmen aren’t “bound” by the Conference decision. And that’s why no Republican can get the majority 217 votes to become Speaker, at least so far.
What was wrong with Scalise? He was a member of the Conference leadership for a decade, and represents the “establishment” in the Conference. Essentially, he was little different from Kevin McCarthy, with all of that political baggage. So while Scalise gained a slim majority of the Conference, many of those who voted against him refused to vote for him on the floor. So he withdrew from the race.
Next the ultimate heretic, the Congressman who helped create the Freedom Caucus to manhandle the Republican even farther to the right, was nominated by the Conference. Jim Jordan is as extreme-right a Congressman as there is in the Party, without the vaudeville acts of Marjorie Taylor Greene or Matt Gaetz. And he has the blessing (at least temporarily) of Donald Trump. But even that is not likely enough; the more centrist (it’s hard to call any Republican Congressmen a moderate – that’s an extinct species in the Conference) are refusing to vote for Jordan on the floor.
He’s still “whipping” votes; making deals to try to reach 217. But if Scalise, the master of the “whip count” couldn’t; it’s not likely the Jim Jordan, rated the 431st (out of 435) most effective legislator in the Congress, will (Newsweek).
Under Pressure
Meanwhile, the pressure mounts. Americans want a House of Representatives that can do something, anything. The crisis in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the looming budget crisis all are closing in. Republicans realize that if they can’t get their House in order, voters will blame them in 2024. And while Democrats are doing a masterful job of keeping this a “Republican” problem, in the end this is an American problem.
So what happens next? Is there no “centrist” the Republicans can turn to? Where are the “moderate” Republicans and Democrats who came to Congress to get something done, not just keep their office? Any 217 Congressmen can organize, choose a Speaker, and run the House of Representatives. Will the pressure grow so intense, that there will be a power-sharing deal between Republicans and Democrats (cats and dogs, fire and water, yin and yang)?
My guess is: no. My guess – the Republican Party will find a body, a candidate that their Conference can agree on, with maybe a few Democratic votes, and a little, really, little, amount of power-sharing. Maybe just a “deal” on the issues at hand, Israel, Ukraine, the Southern Border, and the budget, to get us through 2024.
The sooner, the better.
